I’m going to throw out a few ideas for those of you who aren’t emotionally suited to be investors and have to take the traders path. First off realize that miners are volatile. That means position sizes will necessarily have to be small. As a trader you never want to lose more than 1-2% of your total portfolio on any one trade. So you probably aren’t going to be able to trade more than 20% of your account in any precious metal position. Even the ETF GDX can easily swing 10% in the blink of an eye. If you have a 20% position and it goes against you by 10% you have hit your -2% maximum loss on your portfolio. Also be aware that taking 10 mining positions isn’t really diversifying as the sector tends to move in concert.
What you absolutely can not do is take a 100% position with the intent of trading. Locking in 10% losses in a bull market just isn’t going to be a profitable way to make long term money. If you are going to trade then your main concern, actually your only concern will have to be limiting losses (risk control). Let the profits take care of themselves all you care about as a trader is limiting losses.
Next I want to point out something that is or should be obvious but probably isn’t for most traders. Trading isn’t about getting the direction right. Hell that is easy. No trader has any business trading against the cyclical trend. It just doesn’t make any sense to handicap oneself to that extent. This business is tough enough even with all the odds in your favor. Trading against the trend is like playing poker and having to show your hand to your opponents. Sure you might win a few hands now and then but the odds are really high you are going home to tell your spouse you lost the mortgage.
If you are going to be a short seller in a bull market then you better be digging into the fundamentals of the companies you are shorting. If you are shorting in a bull you had better be selling sick or broken companies. Let’s face it that is the only way you are going to get any kind of advantage and even then the pull of the bull can still mask the disease in many unhealthy companies. The financials are an excellent example. Most of them are for all intents and purposes insolvent but because of accounting changes and free money from the government along with implied protection one would have to be crazy to sell short any bank stock.
There were only 10 new lows on the NYSE yesterday. Trying to short high flyers in a bull market is a fools game and as you can see there aren’t a heck of a lot of potential short candidates in bull markets. So unless you are willing to do the due diligence needed to find cancer patients one really should bypass shorting selling. Wait till the bear returns. That is the time to sell short.
No, trading isn’t about getting the direction right, like I said that one is easy. Trading is about getting the timing right. What a trader wants is to time a swing and then get out. If a trade goes against him it’s not because he’s picked the wrong direction it’s because he mistimed the trade. If the trader is willing to be patient the bull or bear will eventually correct the timing error. When a trader stops out he is admitting his timing was wrong not direction, and he thinks he can exit the trade for a small loss and enter another trade where he hopes his timing will be better.
So if one is going to trade understand what you are doing. You aren’t trying to pick direction you are trying to guess timing. Know that history has shown this is very hard to do on a consistent basis and you certainly don’t want to handicap yourself by trading against the large trend unless you have intimate information about the companies you are trading counter trend.
We have moved!
Friday, April 30, 2010
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
YOU HAVE TO KNOW WHEN TO HOLD EM
I think it may be time for the miners to start outperforming the stock market again. I know when one looks at that semi parabolic chart of the S&P for the last two months it certainly appears that buying miners has been a poor choice. The reality is that miners have matched the gains in the S&P although they admittedly have been more volatile. Of course that's just par for the course in this sector and one of the things precious metal investors just have to accept.
One of the things I've learned over the years is that this sector has a very sneaky way of boring everyone to tears, then just about the time you get fed up and leave the sector shoots straight up for a couple of weeks. If you are out you miss the move. Then about the time everyone panics back in the sector enters another consolidation.
The only way to avoid missing the move is to just stay in. That means you are going to have periods that try your patience but ultimately the reward is worth the wait.
Sunday, April 25, 2010
THE PROBLEM WITH TRADING
Here is the problem with trading. Most of the time any market will be in consolidation mode. Gold is a good example.
For the last 5 months gold has done nothing but trade back and forth with no defined trend. It's very tough to make money in those conditions.
Now don't get me wrong somewhere someone will have traded this perfectly. They will have stumbled upon the perfect system to catch each little wiggle. Often they will proclaim their superiority loudly for all the world to hear.
Unfortunately there really is no holy grail of investing and the system that happened to work this time will almost always fail during the next period. It's just how the markets work, conditions change. So unless one is lucky enough to guess what will work before each new period in the market what invariably happens is one ends up giving back all of the gains they made when their system breaks down.
The answer of course is to just stay aligned with the secular trend and accept that there are going to be periods when one will just have to sit and watch other people make money. The last five months have been a perfect example as the stock market has gone up while precious metals and miners have gone nowhere.
Know full well that eventually this too will end as gold is in a secular bull market with a long way to go and the general stock market is in a secular bear market with limited upside potential.
So at some point gold and miners will make another big move up and all the waiting will have been worth it. And at some point the stock market will come grinding back down and all those who held on expecting conditions never to change will lose all of their profits.
So one can trade if they must, but do so knowing that the market is going to take away any and every profitable system at some point whether it be a technical system, patterns, cycles, indicators, sentiment, COT or just intuition.
I've watched it happen to countless "traders" over the years. The really good traders survive these periods because they practice excellent risk management. Unfortunately most retail traders when they get on a hot streak believe they have found the secret to the market and risk management goes out the window. That's just about the time the market starts throwing curve balls.
Thursday, April 22, 2010
Old Turkey
I love this story from Reminisces of a stock operator. It is so appropriate as the second phase of the gold and silver bull get underway.
"Most let us call' em customers -- are alike. You find very few who can truthfully say that Wall Street doesn't owe them money. In Fullerton's there were the usual crowd. All grades!Well, there was one old chap who was not like the others. To begin with, he was a much older man.
Another thing was that he never volunteered advice and never bragged of his winnings. He was a great hand for listening very attentively to the others.He did not seem very keen to get tips -- that is, he never asked the talkers what they'd heard or what they knew. But when somebody gave him one he always thanked the tipster very politely. Sometimes he thanked the tipster again -- when the tip turned out O.K. But if it went wrong he never whined, so that nobody could tell whether he followed it or let it slide by.
It was a legend of the office that the old jigger was rich and could swing quite a line. But he wasn't donating much to the firm in the way of commissions; at least not that anyone could see. His name was Partridge, but they nicknamed him Turkey behind his back, because he was so thick-chested and had a habit of strutting about the various rooms, with the point of his chin resting on his breast.
The customers, who were all eager to be shoved and forced into doing things so as to lay the blame for failure on others, used to go to old Partridge and tell him what some friend of a friend of an insider had advised them to do in a certain stock.They would tell him what they had not done with the tip so he would tell them what they ought to do. But whether the tip they had was to buy or to sell, the old chap's answer was always the same. The customer would finish the tale of his perplexity and then ask: "What do you think I ought to do?"Old Turkey would cock his head to one side, contemplate his fellow customer with a fatherly smile, and finally he would say very impressively, "You know, it's a bull market!"
Time and again I heard him say, "Well, this is a bull market,you know!" as though he were giving to you a priceless talisman wrapped up in a million-dollar accident-insurance policy. And of course I did not get his meaning.
One day a fellow named Elmer Harwood rushed into the office, wrote out an order and gave it to the clerk. Then he rushed over to where Mr. Partridge was listening politely to John Fanning's story of the time he overheard Keene give an order to one of his brokers and all that John made was a measly three points on a hundred shares and of course the stock had to go up twenty-four points in three days right after John sold out. It was at least the fourth time that John had told him that tale of woe, but old Turkey was smiling as sympathetically as if it was the first time he heard it. Well, Elmer made for the old man and, without a word of apology to John Fanning, told Turkey, "Mr. Partridge, I have just sold my Climax Motors. My people say the market is entitled to a reaction and that I'll be able to buy it back cheaper. So you'd better do likewise. That is, if you've still got yours."
Elmer looked suspiciously at the man to whom he had given the original tip to buy. The amateur, or gratuitous, tipster always thinks he owns the receiver of his tip body and soul, even before he knows how the tip is going to turn out."Yes, Mr. Harwood, I still have it. Of course!" said Turkey gratefully. It was nice of Elmer to think of the old chap."Well, now is the time to take your profit and get in again on the next dip," said Elmer, as if he had just made out the deposit slip for the old man.
Failing to perceive enthusiastic gratitude in the beneficiary's face Elmer went on: "I have just sold every share I owned!" From his voice and manner you would have conservatively estimated it at ten thousand shares.But Mr. Partridge shook his head regretfully and whined, "No!No! I can't do that!": 'What?" yelled Elmer. "I simply can't!" said Mr. Partridge. He was in great trouble."Didn't I give you the tip to buy it?""You did, Mr. Harwood, and I am very grateful to you.Indeed, I am, sir. But --" "Hold on! Let me talk! And didn't that stock go up seven points in ten days? Didn't it?""It did, and I am much obliged to you, my dear boy. But I couldn't think of selling that stock."
"You couldn't?" asked Elmer, beginning to look doubtful himself. It is a habit with most tip givers to be tip takers."No, I couldn't.""Why not?" And Elmer drew nearer."Why, this is a bull market!" The old fellow said it as though he had given a long and detailed explanation."That's all right," said Elmer, looking angry because of his disappointment. "I know this is a bull market as well as you do. But you'd better slip them that stock of yours and buy it back on the reaction. You might as well reduce the cost to yourself.""My dear boy," said old Partridge, in great distress "my dear boy, if I sold that stock now I'd lose my position; and then where would I be?"
Elmer Harwood threw up his hands, shook his head and walked over to me to get sympathy: "Can you beat it?" he asked me in a stage whisper. "I ask you!"I didn't say anything. So he went on: "I give him a tip on Climax Motors. He buys five hundred shares. He's got seven points' profit and I advise him to get out and buy 'em back on the reaction that's overdue even now. And what does he say when I tell him? He says that if he sells he'll lose his job. What do you know about that?""I beg your pardon, Mr. Harwood; I didn't say I'd lose my job," cut in old Turkey. "I said I'd lose my position. And when you are as old as I am and you've been through as many booms and panics as I have, you'll know that to lose your position is something nobody can afford; not even John D. Rockefeller. I hope the stock reacts and that you will be able to repurchase your line at a substantial concession, sir. But I myself can only trade in accordance with the experience of many years. I paid a high price for it and I don't feel like throwing away a second tuition fee. But I am as much obliged to you as if I had the money in the bank. It's a bull market, you know." And he strutted away, leaving Elmer dazed.
What old Mr. Partridge said did not mean much to me until I began to think about my own numerous failures to make as much money as I ought to when I was so right on the general market.The more I studied the more I realized how wise that old chap was. He had evidently suffered from the same defect in his young days and knew his own human weaknesses. He would not lay himself open to a temptation that experience had taught him was hard to resist and had always proved expensive to him, as it was to me
"Most let us call' em customers -- are alike. You find very few who can truthfully say that Wall Street doesn't owe them money. In Fullerton's there were the usual crowd. All grades!Well, there was one old chap who was not like the others. To begin with, he was a much older man.
Another thing was that he never volunteered advice and never bragged of his winnings. He was a great hand for listening very attentively to the others.He did not seem very keen to get tips -- that is, he never asked the talkers what they'd heard or what they knew. But when somebody gave him one he always thanked the tipster very politely. Sometimes he thanked the tipster again -- when the tip turned out O.K. But if it went wrong he never whined, so that nobody could tell whether he followed it or let it slide by.
It was a legend of the office that the old jigger was rich and could swing quite a line. But he wasn't donating much to the firm in the way of commissions; at least not that anyone could see. His name was Partridge, but they nicknamed him Turkey behind his back, because he was so thick-chested and had a habit of strutting about the various rooms, with the point of his chin resting on his breast.
The customers, who were all eager to be shoved and forced into doing things so as to lay the blame for failure on others, used to go to old Partridge and tell him what some friend of a friend of an insider had advised them to do in a certain stock.They would tell him what they had not done with the tip so he would tell them what they ought to do. But whether the tip they had was to buy or to sell, the old chap's answer was always the same. The customer would finish the tale of his perplexity and then ask: "What do you think I ought to do?"Old Turkey would cock his head to one side, contemplate his fellow customer with a fatherly smile, and finally he would say very impressively, "You know, it's a bull market!"
Time and again I heard him say, "Well, this is a bull market,you know!" as though he were giving to you a priceless talisman wrapped up in a million-dollar accident-insurance policy. And of course I did not get his meaning.
One day a fellow named Elmer Harwood rushed into the office, wrote out an order and gave it to the clerk. Then he rushed over to where Mr. Partridge was listening politely to John Fanning's story of the time he overheard Keene give an order to one of his brokers and all that John made was a measly three points on a hundred shares and of course the stock had to go up twenty-four points in three days right after John sold out. It was at least the fourth time that John had told him that tale of woe, but old Turkey was smiling as sympathetically as if it was the first time he heard it. Well, Elmer made for the old man and, without a word of apology to John Fanning, told Turkey, "Mr. Partridge, I have just sold my Climax Motors. My people say the market is entitled to a reaction and that I'll be able to buy it back cheaper. So you'd better do likewise. That is, if you've still got yours."
Elmer looked suspiciously at the man to whom he had given the original tip to buy. The amateur, or gratuitous, tipster always thinks he owns the receiver of his tip body and soul, even before he knows how the tip is going to turn out."Yes, Mr. Harwood, I still have it. Of course!" said Turkey gratefully. It was nice of Elmer to think of the old chap."Well, now is the time to take your profit and get in again on the next dip," said Elmer, as if he had just made out the deposit slip for the old man.
Failing to perceive enthusiastic gratitude in the beneficiary's face Elmer went on: "I have just sold every share I owned!" From his voice and manner you would have conservatively estimated it at ten thousand shares.But Mr. Partridge shook his head regretfully and whined, "No!No! I can't do that!": 'What?" yelled Elmer. "I simply can't!" said Mr. Partridge. He was in great trouble."Didn't I give you the tip to buy it?""You did, Mr. Harwood, and I am very grateful to you.Indeed, I am, sir. But --" "Hold on! Let me talk! And didn't that stock go up seven points in ten days? Didn't it?""It did, and I am much obliged to you, my dear boy. But I couldn't think of selling that stock."
"You couldn't?" asked Elmer, beginning to look doubtful himself. It is a habit with most tip givers to be tip takers."No, I couldn't.""Why not?" And Elmer drew nearer."Why, this is a bull market!" The old fellow said it as though he had given a long and detailed explanation."That's all right," said Elmer, looking angry because of his disappointment. "I know this is a bull market as well as you do. But you'd better slip them that stock of yours and buy it back on the reaction. You might as well reduce the cost to yourself.""My dear boy," said old Partridge, in great distress "my dear boy, if I sold that stock now I'd lose my position; and then where would I be?"
Elmer Harwood threw up his hands, shook his head and walked over to me to get sympathy: "Can you beat it?" he asked me in a stage whisper. "I ask you!"I didn't say anything. So he went on: "I give him a tip on Climax Motors. He buys five hundred shares. He's got seven points' profit and I advise him to get out and buy 'em back on the reaction that's overdue even now. And what does he say when I tell him? He says that if he sells he'll lose his job. What do you know about that?""I beg your pardon, Mr. Harwood; I didn't say I'd lose my job," cut in old Turkey. "I said I'd lose my position. And when you are as old as I am and you've been through as many booms and panics as I have, you'll know that to lose your position is something nobody can afford; not even John D. Rockefeller. I hope the stock reacts and that you will be able to repurchase your line at a substantial concession, sir. But I myself can only trade in accordance with the experience of many years. I paid a high price for it and I don't feel like throwing away a second tuition fee. But I am as much obliged to you as if I had the money in the bank. It's a bull market, you know." And he strutted away, leaving Elmer dazed.
What old Mr. Partridge said did not mean much to me until I began to think about my own numerous failures to make as much money as I ought to when I was so right on the general market.The more I studied the more I realized how wise that old chap was. He had evidently suffered from the same defect in his young days and knew his own human weaknesses. He would not lay himself open to a temptation that experience had taught him was hard to resist and had always proved expensive to him, as it was to me
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
POTENTIAL RUNAWAY MOVE DEVELOPING
Without going into detail if the market moves to new highs I think the odds are good that we have entered a potential runaway move similar to 06/07.
I can tell you that during one of these moves you can just throw out virtually every tool as they all become pretty much useless.
Sentiment didn't work during this period. Cycles stretched to absurd lengths. The COT failed miserably. Technicals were worthless. Overbought was meaningless.
There are two signs to watch for as a clue to an impending top. Needless to say we don't have either at this point and there's no telling how long this could last if it does indeed turn into a runaway rally. The 06/07 move lasted almost 7 months. This one is already 2 months old.
Virtually all markets have now broken through any and all logical resistance levels. 1200 S&P, 11,000 Dow & 2000 NDX just to name a few.
I can tell you that during one of these moves you can just throw out virtually every tool as they all become pretty much useless.
Sentiment didn't work during this period. Cycles stretched to absurd lengths. The COT failed miserably. Technicals were worthless. Overbought was meaningless.
There are two signs to watch for as a clue to an impending top. Needless to say we don't have either at this point and there's no telling how long this could last if it does indeed turn into a runaway rally. The 06/07 move lasted almost 7 months. This one is already 2 months old.
Virtually all markets have now broken through any and all logical resistance levels. 1200 S&P, 11,000 Dow & 2000 NDX just to name a few.
I don't actually expect the move to continue at the same pace as the last two months but it is showing all the signs of an impending runaway rally.
Needless to say shorting something like this is suicide, although I think by now we've all learned our lesson about shorting this cyclical bull.
Monday, April 19, 2010
A-B-OR C
I've been expecting a stock market correction for a few weeks now. It may or may not have begun on Friday. We will need to see some follow through this week before we can say for sure. At some point I expect a big whoosh down. It's how these extreme momentum moves often end.
Gold also appears to be moving into a cycle low. When that big whoosh comes we should know whether gold is still in an A-wave or whether the B-wave has begun. There is even a possibility (although remote) that gold could still be consolidating before another leg up in the C-wave. That scenario is dependant on what the dollar does.
More in the weekend report.
Gold's four wave structure:
Gold also appears to be moving into a cycle low. When that big whoosh comes we should know whether gold is still in an A-wave or whether the B-wave has begun. There is even a possibility (although remote) that gold could still be consolidating before another leg up in the C-wave. That scenario is dependant on what the dollar does.
More in the weekend report.
Gold's four wave structure:
Friday, April 16, 2010
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
MUSICAL CHAIRS
INTC beat earnings yesterday and this morning the market is loving it. Cramer is wildly bullish. BUY, BUY, BUY!
Unfortunately INTC has a history of marking turning points. Let's just say that buying the gap up on earnings hasn't been kind in the short term. Buying when INTC has closed at new 52 week highs the day they report has led to losing trades three days later every time.
The trend is clearly up and I doubt that we are at a final top for this cyclical bull but is the reward really worth the risk of taking Cramers advice?
As of yesterday the market had moved higher 71% of the days out of the February bottom. Folks that is verging on parabolic. Those never end well.
I liken the current market to playing musical chairs with 10 people but only one chair. Certainly you might catch more upside but almost certainly we are, at some point, going to go back down and test the breakout at 1150.
Unfortunately INTC has a history of marking turning points. Let's just say that buying the gap up on earnings hasn't been kind in the short term. Buying when INTC has closed at new 52 week highs the day they report has led to losing trades three days later every time.
The trend is clearly up and I doubt that we are at a final top for this cyclical bull but is the reward really worth the risk of taking Cramers advice?
As of yesterday the market had moved higher 71% of the days out of the February bottom. Folks that is verging on parabolic. Those never end well.
I liken the current market to playing musical chairs with 10 people but only one chair. Certainly you might catch more upside but almost certainly we are, at some point, going to go back down and test the breakout at 1150.
When it happens it's going to happen quickly. These kind of extreme momentum moves have a tendency to erase several weeks or even months of gains in just a handful of days. So one has to consider is the minimal upside really worth the risk of getting caught in a vicious correction?
At this point one is better off stepping to the side until the correction occurs and then buying back in.
Keep in mind I'm certainly not advocating going short. Because who knows how much longer this could go on. But the potential reward just isn't worth the risk of pressing the long side anymore.
Monday, April 12, 2010
IT'S 2007 ALL OVER AGAIN
Several weeks ago I speculated that we were "On the brink of an asset explosion" . So far events are unfolding about as expected. I might even say they are moving more aggressively than I thought. Well actually, there’s no doubt this cyclical bull is unfolding much more aggressively than anyone expected.
Compare the angle of assent of this cyclical bull to the last one.
Compare the angle of assent of this cyclical bull to the last one.
It’s readily apparent what affect the trillions and trillions of dollars central banks have pumped into the system is having. I think Ben has clearly proved his point that in a purely fiat monetary system deflation is a choice, not an inevitability.
As long as a country is willing to sacrifice its currency there is no amount of deflationary pressure that can’t be printed away.
However, no amount of printing can erase the underlying problems. And those problems are going to persist until they are cleansed from the system. In his mad attempt to avoid the mistakes of the depression Bernanke is going to create a whole new type depression. This time the depression will materialize as a hyper-inflationary storm.
What the powers that be fail to understand is that we are going to suffer a depression that is unavoidable when a credit bubble forms and pops. All we are doing is choosing the form of the depression. In this case the memory of the deflationary depression in the 30’s has sent us down the other track into the beginnings of a hyperinflationary state.
Going back to our charts you can see that the February correction separated the second leg of the bull from the third and almost exactly matched the `04 correction in magnitude if not in time. Remember everything is unfolding faster this time.
I think we have by passed the middle years (2004-2006) of a normal bull market and have now entered the final stages of this cyclical bull. I tend to think we are now in the same state as the runaway move in late 2006 and early 2007.
I don’t really expect this stage to last as long as it did during the last bull though. Everything else is unfolding much faster I don’t know why this stage won’t either. Ultimately these extreme momentum moves usually fail dramatically with a violent correction that gives back several weeks or months worth of gains in just a handful of days. I’m expecting some kind of mini-crash (4-6%) at some point during earnings season.
Once that correction has run its course we should enter the final parabolic stage of the bull. That’s when I expect we will really see asset prices explode higher.
The first two legs of this bull gained 300 and 275 points respectively. I wouldn’t be surprised if the last leg gains another 300+ points before the whole house of cards comes crashing back down.
And what is going to bring it down? The same thing that destroyed the economy in 2008 …oil!
Without exception, every time oil spikes 100% or more within a short period of time (one year or less) it has eventually led to a recession. Well Bernanke’s insane monetary policy has virtually guaranteed that will play out again as oil has now risen over 140% since this cyclical bull began.
Amazingly enough oil has done this in a very low demand/high supply environment. This fact could only be true if the cause for oil’s rise in price is directly attributed to the Fed’s monetary policy.
Once the market corrects I think we can back up the truck in virtually any asset class for the final parabolic move as the Fed completely loses control of money supply. We just need to keep in mind this will be an end game not the beginning of a new secular bull.
Sunday, April 11, 2010
WHERE ARE THE MANIPULATORS?
Let me apologize in advance but I just couldn't resist.
If the gold market is manipulated like so many people want to believe, then how in the world did they let gold rally 10 out of the last 11 days?
If the gold market is manipulated like so many people want to believe, then how in the world did they let gold rally 10 out of the last 11 days?
Friday, April 9, 2010
REGRESSION TO THE MEAN
The market is heading into dangerous waters. Sentiment has become skewed wildly bullish and historically the market hasn't performed well during earnings season when entering at new 52 week highs.
One of the few principles that never fails is that all market eventually regress to the mean. That one you can take to the bank. Usually the further anything stretches the harder it snaps back.
It looks like the market desperately wants to reach the 1200 level but in doing so it will have stretched further above the 200 day moving average than at any point during the middle and final leg of the prior bull market.
One of the few principles that never fails is that all market eventually regress to the mean. That one you can take to the bank. Usually the further anything stretches the harder it snaps back.
It looks like the market desperately wants to reach the 1200 level but in doing so it will have stretched further above the 200 day moving average than at any point during the middle and final leg of the prior bull market.
The market is now dangerously stretched and due for some kind of correction to reset sentiment. My guess is that sometime during earnings season we are going to see a violent correction similar to what happened in February 07. That should reset sentiment and set the stage for possibly a final parabolic move higher that will likely cap this cyclical bull.
The catalyst will be the same one that crushed us in 08, spiking energy costs. $100+ oil in a very high unemployment environment is going to be an economy crusher...again!
Monday, April 5, 2010
RUSSELL COIL
I've looked at these many times in the past but we have another example today that may be worth taking note of.
The Russell 2000 just broke higher out of the recent volatility coil. Admittedly the coil was a bit sloppy which may call into question the validity of the signal. But as I've noted in the past, most of the time the initial move out of one of these coils tends to be a false move followed by a more powerful and more durable move in the opposite direction.
Considering that we are now very late in the daily cycle (among other things) this might be worth watching for a potential reversal as the market moves down into the now due cycle low.
The Russell 2000 just broke higher out of the recent volatility coil. Admittedly the coil was a bit sloppy which may call into question the validity of the signal. But as I've noted in the past, most of the time the initial move out of one of these coils tends to be a false move followed by a more powerful and more durable move in the opposite direction.
Considering that we are now very late in the daily cycle (among other things) this might be worth watching for a potential reversal as the market moves down into the now due cycle low.
JUST SAY NO!
Let me start out by asking a few questions. How many of you were pro-bailout? How many pro-healthcare? How many think borrowing trillions of dollars to “stimulate” will really have any long term effect what-so-ever on the economy? How many realize that borrowing and spending really isn’t the cure for a problem caused by too much debt and too much consumption?
Now let me ask another question. Aren’t our politicians supposed to represent the will of the people?
I’m going to assume that the vast majority answered no to the above questions and yes to the last one. If that is the case then why in the hell did we hand over billions and billions of dollars to the banking industry? Was that in our best interests? How on earth did the health care bill get passed? And why, why, why are we throwing trillions of dollars down the drain in stimulus that has no earthly chance of having any long term positive effects?
Of course we all know the answer to the question. All these things came to pass because politicians don’t actually represent the will of the people. Politicians represent our desire to avoid short term pain and their own personal desire to get re-elected.
So how did we get in the mess we are in?
Let’s start off with a little history. Let me say that nothing is happening today that hasn’t happened many times in the past. I’m fairly certain human nature hasn’t changed in the last 5000 years or so, and I really doubt it’s going to materially change in the next 5000 either, so I can virtually guarantee we will go through this again…and again, and again.
Historically about every 70-80 years humanity suffers through an economic depression. It takes about that long for society to forget the ravages of the last depression. And what causes it is a credit bubble.
I know we would like to blame our troubles on the greedy bankers and leave it at that. But that is way too simple. Bankers are just human, no different than anyone else. Trust me, no one is immune to the pull of greed. Sure the financial system should have foreseen that no good could possibly come from loaning half a million dollars to someone with a $30,000 a year job. And what about the speculator that bought that half million dollar house. He knew darn well when he took out the loan he couldn’t afford to make any payments once the teaser rates expired. Isn’t it also his fault when he lied about his income? Or how about the loan originator? Was it really in everyone’s best interest to underwrite a loan for several hundred thousand dollars to a guy sitting on the other side of the table wearing a McDonald’s work uniform? Or was it just the quickest way to make a commission? And what the heck, everyone else was doing it. If they didn’t make the loans they were just going to put themselves out of business while all their competitors were getting rich.
The same could be said for the appraisers. They certainly knew the prices they were quoting had no basis in reality, but then if they tried to act responsibly they would quickly find themselves out of a job.
How about the home owner who annually or biannually refinanced their house so they could take equity out and buy a new Hummer, home theater system, or a swell vacation, etc. Aren’t they also just as much to blame as the bankers?
We’ve coined the term Banksters as a sign of the contempt we feel towards the perceived instigators and originators of our current malaise, but perhaps we need another term, one that is a bit harder to stomach but just as appropriate. Sure, the Banksters were a big part of what went wrong but no more so than the average Americanster. All those folks living on home equity, all those buying houses, sometimes several at a time to flip, all those people lying about their income, were they not also driven by greed? Weren’t they just as much at fault for the mess we are in as any banker?
Next I want to point out that none of this would have been possible without the co-operation of our elected officials and especially the Federal Reserve. After all it was Alan Greenspan and now Ben Bernanke who cut rates to near zero and supplied the free money that was required to get the ball rolling down the hill. No bubble was possible without the consent of the Fed, the very people who are supposed to be looking out for this very thing.
Of course Greenspan has insisted it isn’t possible to spot a bubble before it pops. What a load of baloney. Anyone with half a brain could spot not only the tech bubble but also the housing bubble a mile away.
Amazingly we are now going to give the Fed even more power to regulate and oversee markets. The very people whose monetary policies enabled the credit bubble in the first place. The very same people who couldn’t see it as it formed. The very same people who repeatedly denied it as it imploded.
Do we really want to trust these folks with regulating the system? Let’s face it, their track record leaves a lot to be desired. Why should we think they will get it right this time when so far they are batting zero?
There are right and wrong ways to deal with this kind of problem though. History has shown over and over that the quickest and cleanest solution is to let the market work. Let the system collapse and cleanse. Sure it means hard times. There really is no avoiding that. The countries that have allowed the market to function have suffered 2 or 3 years of extreme pain. Regretable, but unavoidable.
However, every country that buckled down and accepted the cleansing process emerged from the other side much stronger. Brazil in the early 80’s, Vietnam in the mid 80’s and Russia in the late 90’s are just a few examples. And without exception these countries all saw explosive growth after allowing the cleansing process to run its course.
On the other hand the countries that fought the market without exception entered long periods of hard times. In the 1930’s Roosevelt took this path and turned what should have been just a bad recession into the Great Depression. Ultimately all the efforts to halt the depression only made it worse, culminating in World War II.
Japan chose this path and was rewarded with 20 years of on again, off again recessions, culminating in finally bankrupting their country.
Now we are faced with the same problems as Japan in the 1990’s and Roosevelt in the 1930’s and what path have we chosen? The path of least resistance, of course. We’ve decided to kick the can down the road.
We are certainly in good company as almost every major empire in the history of the world has chosen this path to oblivion. And it always starts with currency debasement.
Take a good look at the following chart.
Now let me ask another question. Aren’t our politicians supposed to represent the will of the people?
I’m going to assume that the vast majority answered no to the above questions and yes to the last one. If that is the case then why in the hell did we hand over billions and billions of dollars to the banking industry? Was that in our best interests? How on earth did the health care bill get passed? And why, why, why are we throwing trillions of dollars down the drain in stimulus that has no earthly chance of having any long term positive effects?
Of course we all know the answer to the question. All these things came to pass because politicians don’t actually represent the will of the people. Politicians represent our desire to avoid short term pain and their own personal desire to get re-elected.
So how did we get in the mess we are in?
Let’s start off with a little history. Let me say that nothing is happening today that hasn’t happened many times in the past. I’m fairly certain human nature hasn’t changed in the last 5000 years or so, and I really doubt it’s going to materially change in the next 5000 either, so I can virtually guarantee we will go through this again…and again, and again.
Historically about every 70-80 years humanity suffers through an economic depression. It takes about that long for society to forget the ravages of the last depression. And what causes it is a credit bubble.
I know we would like to blame our troubles on the greedy bankers and leave it at that. But that is way too simple. Bankers are just human, no different than anyone else. Trust me, no one is immune to the pull of greed. Sure the financial system should have foreseen that no good could possibly come from loaning half a million dollars to someone with a $30,000 a year job. And what about the speculator that bought that half million dollar house. He knew darn well when he took out the loan he couldn’t afford to make any payments once the teaser rates expired. Isn’t it also his fault when he lied about his income? Or how about the loan originator? Was it really in everyone’s best interest to underwrite a loan for several hundred thousand dollars to a guy sitting on the other side of the table wearing a McDonald’s work uniform? Or was it just the quickest way to make a commission? And what the heck, everyone else was doing it. If they didn’t make the loans they were just going to put themselves out of business while all their competitors were getting rich.
The same could be said for the appraisers. They certainly knew the prices they were quoting had no basis in reality, but then if they tried to act responsibly they would quickly find themselves out of a job.
How about the home owner who annually or biannually refinanced their house so they could take equity out and buy a new Hummer, home theater system, or a swell vacation, etc. Aren’t they also just as much to blame as the bankers?
We’ve coined the term Banksters as a sign of the contempt we feel towards the perceived instigators and originators of our current malaise, but perhaps we need another term, one that is a bit harder to stomach but just as appropriate. Sure, the Banksters were a big part of what went wrong but no more so than the average Americanster. All those folks living on home equity, all those buying houses, sometimes several at a time to flip, all those people lying about their income, were they not also driven by greed? Weren’t they just as much at fault for the mess we are in as any banker?
Next I want to point out that none of this would have been possible without the co-operation of our elected officials and especially the Federal Reserve. After all it was Alan Greenspan and now Ben Bernanke who cut rates to near zero and supplied the free money that was required to get the ball rolling down the hill. No bubble was possible without the consent of the Fed, the very people who are supposed to be looking out for this very thing.
Of course Greenspan has insisted it isn’t possible to spot a bubble before it pops. What a load of baloney. Anyone with half a brain could spot not only the tech bubble but also the housing bubble a mile away.
Amazingly we are now going to give the Fed even more power to regulate and oversee markets. The very people whose monetary policies enabled the credit bubble in the first place. The very same people who couldn’t see it as it formed. The very same people who repeatedly denied it as it imploded.
Do we really want to trust these folks with regulating the system? Let’s face it, their track record leaves a lot to be desired. Why should we think they will get it right this time when so far they are batting zero?
There are right and wrong ways to deal with this kind of problem though. History has shown over and over that the quickest and cleanest solution is to let the market work. Let the system collapse and cleanse. Sure it means hard times. There really is no avoiding that. The countries that have allowed the market to function have suffered 2 or 3 years of extreme pain. Regretable, but unavoidable.
However, every country that buckled down and accepted the cleansing process emerged from the other side much stronger. Brazil in the early 80’s, Vietnam in the mid 80’s and Russia in the late 90’s are just a few examples. And without exception these countries all saw explosive growth after allowing the cleansing process to run its course.
On the other hand the countries that fought the market without exception entered long periods of hard times. In the 1930’s Roosevelt took this path and turned what should have been just a bad recession into the Great Depression. Ultimately all the efforts to halt the depression only made it worse, culminating in World War II.
Japan chose this path and was rewarded with 20 years of on again, off again recessions, culminating in finally bankrupting their country.
Now we are faced with the same problems as Japan in the 1990’s and Roosevelt in the 1930’s and what path have we chosen? The path of least resistance, of course. We’ve decided to kick the can down the road.
We are certainly in good company as almost every major empire in the history of the world has chosen this path to oblivion. And it always starts with currency debasement.
Take a good look at the following chart.
You can clearly see when it began. As the US started to decline the powers that be took the easy way out and started printing. We managed to borrow and print our way to one hell of a party in the middle of the last decade.
Unfortunately, that party was built on a fantasy of credit expansion and real estate speculation. We certainly created a lot of jobs during this period. Jobs in finance, construction and anything related to the housing industry. As a matter of fact, almost all aspects of the economy exploded as it appeared we had true demand for everything from $5.00 for a cup of coffee at Starbuck’s to strip malls on every available corner.
Unfortunately, and like all great parties, there is a price to pay…the hangover!
Our fantasy economy built on a foundation of debt and currency debasement couldn’t continue indefinitely and it didn’t. What followed was the second worst bear market in history and the single worst economic collapse since the Great depression.
Yet amazingly enough, our leaders have learned nothing from this experience.
They are now back at it again printing oceans of money and racking up trillions and trillions of dollars of new debt. This is the exact same recipe that led to the last catastrophe. This is the same government whose leader stood in front of the American population and told us with a straight face that we needed to spend our way out of the recession. Seriously?
Too much consumption and too much debt is what got us into our current mess in the first place. How does it help us to get more bankrupt because let’s face it, the USA is bankrupt.
It’s simply not possible to borrow trillions and trillions of dollars and spend our way out of bankruptcy. The old adage that you never get something for nothing has been conveniently overlooked. I don’t think the laws of economics are going to be magically revoked for a country anymore than they will for an individual. Just ask Greece!
So where is all this leading us?
I’ll tell you where it’s leading. We are going to continue to borrow more and more money. We are going to continue to stimulate and bailout failed companies. And none of it is going to work. It didn’t work for Roosevelt in the 1930’s. It didn’t work for Japan in the 1990’s and it’s not going to work for the USA now.
We are just going to go deeper and deeper into debt. Taxes will continue to rise (by the way does anyone realize how many hidden taxes are buried in the new health care bill)? And inflation (a hidden tax that none of us have any say in) will continue to worsen.
Ultimately none of these ill fated policies will achieve any of their goals.
And when these policies fail politicians will do what they always do. They will look for some way to divert public attention away from their inability to solve any of society’s problems.
That invariably means they will look for someone to blame. That almost always leads to wars.
Regrettably all this could be avoided if only our leaders would accept responsibility and choose the right path. Understandably that path is going to be painful and it’s a path that doesn’t lead to being re-elected. But it is a path that leads to a bright future, a path that doesn’t lead to our sons and daughters dying on some battlefield.
If left to their own decisions our leaders are never going to choose the hard path. It’s human nature to avoid short term pain, to push the problem down the road for someone else to deal with even though that choice only leads to a much bigger problem in the long run.
Folks we have mid-term elections coming this year and we have an opportunity to get our message across. If you want a brighter future for your children, if you want politicians to represent their constituents instead of special interests, if you want to put an end to the pork in every bill that’s used to “buy” votes, if you want to stop the bailouts, if you want to send a message that you aren’t happy with the government wasting our tax dollars on stimulus that only benefits a few while it costs the rest of us in higher taxes and higher inflation, if you want to let the congress know you’re mad as hell about the 50% increase in health care that their ridiculous new bill immediately cost each and every one of us (and that’s not even including all the hidden taxes) there is a way.
Simply vote out every single incumbent. If left up to politicians they will never put a limit on terms. They will never end the pork. Big money will continue to “buy” elections. Limiting terms certainly won’t cure all of the problems but if politicians knew going in that they would only be allowed one term they might be more likely to do the right thing.
For one thing, there would be no need to waste money trying to get re-elected. It would never happen. It’s time to take back control of our political system. It’s time we let the politicians know we’ve had enough of the waste and corruption. It’s time we were actually represented by our representatives.
It’s time for a change and I’m not talking about the Obama change, which was really just more of the same. I’m talking about real change. I’m talking about sending our elected officials a reminder that they work for us, not the other way around. It’s time to let them know that when they do a poor job we are going to fire them.
It’s time to just say no!
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