The current intermediate cycle has rolled over and is making lower lows and lower highs. The current daily cycle has formed a swing high and is in jeopardy of rolling over into a left translated cycle. If the dollar breaks below the November intermediate bottom of 75.63 it will be an incredibly bearish sign as not only will the current intermediate cycle have topped in only 4 weeks but the larger yearly cycle will also have topped in only 4 weeks.
If that happens there is little chance the dollar will be able to hold above the March 08 lows as the crash down into the three year cycle low begins in earnest.
This will not only drive the final leg up in gold's huge C-wave it will also drive a huge spike in inflation in all other commodities. Food riots world wide will intensify. The rest of the world will be in an uproar over the collapsing dollar. Spiking commodity prices will collapse discretionary spending just like it did in 08 and 09.
The phony economy driven by Ben's printing press will roll over when he's forced to turn off the presses to halt the dollar collapse. (Just like it started to do last summer when QE ended and the stock market started to collapse.)
The dollar's rally out of the three year cycle low should correspond with stocks beginning the next leg down in the secular bear market and the next brief deflationary period just like the bounce out of the 08 three year cycle low drove the second leg down in the secular bear market.
The rally out of a three year cycle low usually lasts about a year to a year and a half. The next 4 year cycle low in the stock market is due in 2012. I expect that year long rally out of the coming three year cycle bottom to drive stocks down into the next major 4 year cycle trough and drive the CRB into it's next major cycle bottom.
A lot is riding on the next 2/3 weeks. If the swing high in the dollar yesterday does signal the top of the dollar's daily cycle then the November low will almost surely be broken and the chain of events I laid out will be set in motion.
"Still not money in the sixties either. The money supply was backed by a store of value (gold) but gold was not used as money."
ReplyDeleteThe fact that paper was backed by gold meant that gold was the money and paper was representative of gold money.
Just as digits in cyberspace or gold certificates could now represent gold as medium of exchange.
By the way, what do you think will replace the USD after its predicted, by you, collapse?
RW, I was around and participating at first indirectly, when gold was re-permitted to be held by the US public, and then active again in 80-82, and now.
ReplyDeleteYour claim that gold is the premier store of value is untrue.
What is true is this: There is a concept in human minds that we should have some way to carry forward into the future the value of current effort. That's "store of value"; I term it "world buying power".
And what is also true, for reasons I haven't chosen to investigate, is that this store of value continues to be assigned and then reassigned.
What is the store of value today definitely will not be the store of value tomorrow.
Speculation to win more of the store of value, rather than to create it, leads to more seeking something solely for an increase in the value, rather than as a stable store of value.
We're doing that here. (Earlier this week, the sales manager a major US weaver spoke to me contemptuously about the speculators in cotton, as he is a real consumer of this "store of value".)
My point is that in the mind of the public, and the government managers, this store of value will continue to shift. That is the constant...the store of value shifts from asset to asset, slowly, over time. Think of them as sine waves, or breathing in and exhaling.
Your claim that gold is premier is malarky. It was 850 in 1981. That 850 dropped to 225, a loss in nominal value by 70%+. Iterating, a loss of 70% nominally. And measured against other commodities, a loss of 90% or more, still, today.
I'd trade all my silver right now, for its store of value buying power in 1981, which has to be $100-200, now. Plus, maybe there would be interest, at a mere 3% compounded for 30 years? So, the store of value, plus a little vig.. would be worth $200-400, today. Same logic for gold.
Reiterating, gold won't hold this store of value, after the parabolic panic phase. The store of value will shift yet again.
What one n
Basil, congrats for signing on.
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteWould you list here the value of a hypothetical portfolio over the past 49 days?
Assume $1000 as of Jan 1. Based solely on your advice, including in-out-in losses and brokerage, and the price appreciation now, what would that $1000 be valued at today?
Slumdog
ReplyDeleteI think Gary said that after pm play out , he will be looking for the next bull
I hope Gary is doing this a long time ((please be careful on the cliffs !!! ) =)
SD
ReplyDelete"Your claim that gold is premier is malarky. It was 850 in 1981. That 850 dropped to 225, a loss in nominal value by 70%+. Iterating, a loss of 70% nominally. And measured against other commodities, a loss of 90% or more, still, today."
Your comparing the exact top of a bubble s price to the lowest price afterwards. Why not compare the price from 1971, at $35, to the top at 850?
Look, it's not even debatable that gold isn't the best long term store of wealth. It just is and has been for thousands of years. It's simply the absolute best element for this purpose, bar none.
Cotton would have to be one of the worst stores of value. The USD is mainly cotton after all.
Personally I don't believe in a gold standard. Gold and fiat both have their purposes and should exist unchained to one another.
Excellent post, Slumdog.
ReplyDeleteThis is all just a game, where we are all trying to outguess the other, trying to anticipate what others will value more in the future and what others will value less in the future. The problem is that everyone is doing this. So no one is buying something based on how they value it, but rather on how they think the others will value it in the future. We don´t want to store value, we want whatever we have to be more valuable than it is.
A few trading resolutions from a great trader, Joe Donahue "upsidetrader".
ReplyDeleteHere are some “tips” that will help:
If your not sure and don’t have an edge, cash IS a strategy.
If you are on a cold streak, reduce size by 70% and tighten stops for a week.
Stocks aren’t people, they cant be trusted, an algorithm doesn’t care that you think you know the story or the chart.
Don’t be “all in” in any name, you will blow up your account.
It’s totally cool to change your mind right after a trade, the market changes by the minute, so should you.
Pick one strategy and stick to it. This may take time if you are a beginner.
You have to break a few eggs to make an omelet, so take losses but keep them very small.
I haven’t taken someone else s idea in a long time, you have just as good a chance of being right or wrong as some other putz.
Don’t have 15 technical indicators on your screen, that’s and EKG not a chart. Less is more.
Don’t trade pissed off, it will crush your P&L
Guess who wins when you “revenge” trade?
Take partial profits on the way up and raise your stops.
When you have three losing trades in a row, take a walk around the block. You may get an epiphany, at the very least it’s therapeutic.
Realize early that the market will always be smarter than you.
"We don´t want to store value, we want whatever we have to be more valuable than it is."
ReplyDeleteYes, without risk. Who was it that said "I'm less interested in the return on my money than I am with the return of my money."?
Slum,
ReplyDeleteThat's a tough one. It all depends on percentage one has invested. Whether or not they were leveraged. What their exact entry and exit points were, etc.
My portfolio and the portfolio of several friends that I manage are up between 10-20% from the top in January depending on how aggressive they want me to be.
Holy cow!
ReplyDeleteDave Morgan, Clive Maund, Adam Hamilton, The Adens , and quite a few more (That I've respected in the past..Clive is on and off,'iffy') all calling for readers to go to cash for a sizable pull back in P.M.'s!
This is going to be one of those 'hand holding' moments for the next couple days or weeks.
Gary
I have a couple of friends that ask my advice..and ALWAYS panic during corrections --it can keep me sharp, but also can cause me to be less focused on my more important things,and even certain convictions. Its a hand-holding session :(
I feel bad for you at times, because I know if you were sailing alone at any time, you could traverse through this bull and be happy with all your changes and decisions (necessary adaptations IF needed) minor or major corrections.
But at times like this...I would pull my hair out if I were you, with all the differing opinions written (plan or no plan, you will be the dart board)...Best Wishes!
Gary
ReplyDeleteWill you Finish this gold bull before you give up the newsletter
That's why I don't bother reading what others are saying:)
ReplyDeleteWe have our stop that will tell us if we are wrong. Other than that I think the dollar will continue down into the three year cycle low and that will drive the last leg of this C-wave.
I'll leave the top picking to others.
Jeff,
ReplyDeleteI've always said I would see everyone through the bull before I retire...again.
Thankyou
ReplyDeleteHopefully I will know how to do this by then.
ReplyDeleteMaybe I will take over for you. LMAO just kidding
DK: "So no one is buying something based on how they value it, but rather on how they think the others will value it in the future. We don´t want to store value, we want whatever we have to be more valuable than it is."
ReplyDeleteWhat I've observed over the past year in textile manufacturing is that for the mid-sized and small cmmmercial consumers, this intense game, speculation, was not recognized for its ability to shift the store of value so significantly. Just like traders use stops, the consumers should have hedged their bets. I beat them with a stick and took positions myself via future-delivery orders from them. They discounted me. And the major suppliers 6 months ago refused to accept small or even midsized orders if not for immediate delivery; so what's happened is a current tightness of supply to make the yarn to make the textiles! So, the price is being bid up by the consumers who must receive the physical to operate their businesses.
We can all ponder how this ends. Factory layoffs? Major inflation being pushed on to the buyers (on to me, the wholesale and retail vendor...I'm vertical). Where I can, I pass it on. Where I can't, as in next year, as I'm not hedged that far out, it's a game of chicken, with me waiting for the next guy to raise his prices first and fully. One vendor, Gildan, changed its fabric blend, adding much more polyester. But in the end, the manufacturer holdouts, like me, will pass this on, later, about 1 year from now. The Gildans/Vanity Fairs are doing it now, prices rising monthly at the distributor level. We're acting as the bellows. At some point, we'll blow out those price rises.
Even though I don't have a plan as to timing, at this point my general plan is to slowly, over a period of a few years, transition into physical. I expect physical to far outperform paper in the later phases of the bull if for no other reason than people will become increasingly risk averse. As more and more institutions fail people should have less and less confidence in counter parties.
ReplyDeleteSo far I've decided to keep the physicals away from home and have avoided numismatic and collectible type bullion. No safe deposit boxes.
My main concern is where the lowest risk vaults are located. ViaMat, Brinks in Utah, Switzerland, London, New York, Perth Mint, GoldMoney.com, and all the others.
I know Paulson trusts GLD but who cares? This guy would be a pennyless failure if the USG hadn't bailed out AIG. He's a just lucky schmuck.
Thx Gary. Those %'s are against total portfolio? Or are those against a set amount of dollars at risk?
ReplyDeleteI'm just seeking clarification.
What is a realistic percentage return one can expect in this PM rise, assuming leverage that you consider reasonable/rational, between 130 and 150% leverage? (if one has 100, buying AGQ creates 100% leverage; and if on margin, then it's 130%. Is this accurately stating what you mean by leverage?)
If one invests 1000 at this point, 31-33, one can try to get 150-200%, if leveraged above, when silver reaches 50?
Is this the ballpark goal on this momentary rise?
Gary, a different question, what are the odds that the dollar low stretches beyond late April and into June?
ReplyDeleteRW, don't forget to tell somebody, probably in writing, where you got what you got. It's a perpetual problem when one has physical. Envelope at an attorney's or close friend's as well as in spouse's hands, off the property? Don't forget the key!
ReplyDeleteBob,
ReplyDeleteThat's always a possibility but so far the current intermediate dollar cycle has topped in 4 weeks and the last two daily cycles have been left translated. All signs that the dollar is in severe trouble and that the decline into the three year cycle low has begun.
"ALEX said...
ReplyDeleteHoly cow!
Dave Morgan, Clive Maund, Adam Hamilton, The Adens , and quite a few more (That I've respected in the past..Clive is on and off,'iffy') all calling for readers to go to cash for a sizable pull back in P.M.'s!"
Alex, what will the subscribers to those folks and their camp followers do when/if the PM's continue to rise in March?
We all know, they're the powderkeg that are ready to rush in and that will drive the price dramatically.
So, might we gots'd more of those "advisors" who will help this along? Cramer?
Thx for mentioning this. Instead of handholding, this is the best news I've heard. They're sidelining players, and still PM's are rising.
If gold stays "calm" until Feb 28 close, we will, not might, will see a rocket take off if it then exceeds the 142x-3x high of Dec. 5 more trading days.
FYI, I'm talking about the monthly chart which means it doesn't need to rocket out on 3-1, but it means that gold will rocket at least to 1530-50. And then, The Great Doubling, 2000 will become the magnet.
Slumdog
ReplyDeleteThat's actually the least of my concerns. I just put everything in trust accounts, no burying for me.
Slum,
ReplyDeleteMy expectation is for silver to reach or almost reach $50 during this final C-wave advance.
That would equate to an AGQ price of about $350 to $400.
I doubt one will be able to significantly outperform AGQ so one could just base a guess off of how large a position they are willing to hold in AGQ and then subtract a little bit for capital invested in SIL, GDXJ and SLW as they would be expected to underperform a bit.
Can anyone give me advice on good books...sources covering futures trading? I like the idea of reducing company and industry specific risk and bettering AGQ risk/reward ratio. Also sounds like short term trading tax advantages. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteGary
ReplyDeleteAt this time I believe that to be the case too ( with minor pullbacks or even a few strong intra day pullbacks).
I guess what I was meaning was that your readers on here read a lot of 'kitco' and 'safehaven' articles too. I do too, for the viewpoints and some I try to mentally prove wrong or debate for keeping myself sharp, or maybe learn from some of them. I Just that you'll be bombarded again with concerns if we get those articles and a pullback simultaneously. Some of the last comments were a bit harsh and sharp- i.m.o. I know you have the plan...but the last couple times the plan worked, some sounded rather upset that they had to use the plan, etc.
Well, Maybe thats what keeps you sharp. Like your answer (to my last post) about the dollars 3 yr low and so on.
so again, best wishes ( but I know you'll be fine)
New ETF GLDX investing in junior explorers. Could be interesting.
ReplyDeleteGLDX seems to do about the same percentage wise as GDX.
ReplyDeleteIt's probably going to be pretty tough to outperform AGQ, SIL and SLW during this run.
SLUMDOG
ReplyDeleteI am in the same camp as you there. At this point I think we could get a small pull back, but when it starts up and gets bought...they may all change their view (Clive changes his charts every 2 to 3 wks :) Then they all buy.
That would be typical and appreciated by the rest of us :)
Redwine,
ReplyDeleteA good introductory book is "The Futures Game" by Teweles and Jones
Seems like everyone is expecting a pullback based more or less on the powerful move we saw in silver last week.
ReplyDeleteWhat everyone is overlooking is that the dollar is just now starting it's run down into the next daily cycle low.
It looks like what no one is expecting is for another week of strong gains.
I'll just sit tight myself. If the market corrects I'll decide whether I want to add more exposure, if not I'm positioned to profit from further upside.
Futures markets open.
ReplyDeletePolly?
ReplyDelete3 hrs they open
Sideways, neutral at this point, favors Gary's position, imo.
ReplyDeleteThose predicting a retracement down, like MLMT, really have the burden of proof for the event to materialilze. Or do they have that responsibility?
MLMT believes it will be on Tuesday.
Those predicting higher prices are just camped out, in Gary's camp, waiting.
External "justification" triggers in the fundamentals are being strewn like flower petals at a wedding. The heart of what drove gold many times before, the MidEast, is the movie of the week. Any who are rational who watch the mobs in the street (there's a new LiveLeak.com video of a screaming mob of men in Tunisia on Friday in front of a synagogue, shouting for Mohammedan revenge against the Jews... this being the new "freedom" they've won for themselves). As Western rational reason has evaded the Street in the dictator-run ME, the wealthy have no choice but to move into gold as what freedom is bringing is not Western-style democracy, but zealotry and anger, sadly not against their own lack of reason.
And the dollar cycle, and the still large open contracts for delivery of silver which I think must settle on Monday next, and the gaggle of advisors who are warning off their flocks from the long position, plus, plus, plus.
What a wonderful witches brew! The PM's love this kind'a stuff.
Add the salt of China actions, and the pepper of Russia, and the mysterious spices of so many of the rest of the countries, and we're gonna make a fantastic goulash.
The weight of self-serving countries, and now seemingly unstoppable irrational zealotry, now focused at the ME, will be the underlying supports to the rises in the PM's.
Imagine the PM is like an oil skim on boiling water. The bigger the boils, the higher the PM's.
It's the backside of this parabola, the D Wave Gary references for we who are unconscious, is the thing to watch.
The rise in silver and the non-rise in gold this week are nowhere near enough to warrant the D wave at this time.
I'm here because Gary's for me a surprisingly stable, very knowledgable captain of his own ship. He did scare me with the in-out-in recently, but I am now absorbing his belief that the losses were inconsequential compared to the gains now being made.
For some reason of his own, Gary's willing to share, and in turn, he's being rewarded reasonably by the subscribers. It's the right model, a unique model imo, as he's engaged and teaching, as well. I saw that model in academia, where very successful people return to teach what they understand.
What's fascinating is how many who are enrolled are themselves vetting the teacher, repeatedly.
DK
ReplyDeleteThank you, I'll check it out.
Gary
ReplyDeleteWhen did this bull start?
The gold bull began almost exactly at the same time Greenspan began to debase the currency in the spring of 01.
ReplyDeleteGary
ReplyDeleteCyclewise when was it Apparent?
Can you find cycles in every stock?
Slumdog,
ReplyDeleteThat's one of the finest posts I've read, and beautifully phrased. Are you a professional author?
I agree with you about the Middle East. So far, the equity markets seem to be in denial, but it is not lost on gold and silver. Perhaps the increasingly sluggish rise in the S&P Gary noted in the weekend report may end up with a break to the downside and a resumption of the traditional role of gold moving opposite to equity markets.
I've read about 20 market comments and newsletters over the weekend. While many see $50 silver later this year, none of them is calling for that in the next month or two.
The most optimistic I read thinks it's "possible" silver could spike up another $8-$10 before a $15-$20 correction (and buying opportunity). He suggested buying SLV put options as a hedge. Many others see a decline beginning almost immediately.
I wonder how many are going to sit on the sidelines aghast as silver is drawn like a "magnet" to that round $50 number. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if silver traded over $50 for a day or two as a "hook" to lure in small retail speculators just prior to the D wave.
I, too, got caught offside by the recent in-and-out's, but gold exhibited an unusual and difficult pattern--I've never seen that kind of triple top, and as you say, losses are inconsequential compared to the profits to come.
I'm surprised, too, by the challenging by some here. And need for constant reassurance by others. I admire Gary for his patience--I couldn't do it.
Gary
ReplyDeleteAny thoughts on what will replace the USD after it collapses? Do you believe gold will be out of the equation entirely? Nobody I know of is proposing gold coins as the only medium of exchange, by the way, so you can forget that tired argument.
Red,
ReplyDeleteNo clue. I suppose the dollar will just be retired and a new currency issued. That's usually the path taken once a country is forced by the market to actually default on it's debt once they destroy their currency.
Jeff,
ReplyDeleteCycles only work in large liquid markets. Single stocks are driven by company specific news and earnings.
Red
ReplyDeleteHow about Judy remonitsing and triple screwing everyone
iPhone typos
ReplyDeleteHow about just remonetizing
ReplyDeleteA new federal reserve note? LOL.
ReplyDeleteThe act of trying to monetize a debt spiral is what destroys a currency.
ReplyDeleteThe only true and sustainable way out is to default. Unfortunately when the United States of America finally defaults on trillions and trillions of dollars of debt it's going to set in motion a global deflationary depression much worse than what happened in the 30's.
Clive Maund from his Jan 30 publication is bullish
ReplyDeleteGo to kitco
jeff
ReplyDeleteYou mean remonetize silver? I wouldn't want to use an industrial metal that's in a supply shortage and has drastic supply/demand shifts.
Most of the time paper money works wonderfully. Unfortunately politicians always eventually succumb to the temptation to try to get something for nothing.
ReplyDeleteOnce a country starts down that path it's very hard to get off. Debt spirals out of control until eventually the end game is arrived at and a choice is made as to whether to default or hyperinflate.
Red
ReplyDeleteThe dollar
"Unfortunately when the United States of America finally defaults on trillions and trillions of dollars of debt it's going to set in motion a global deflationary depression much worse than what happened in the 30's."
ReplyDeleteDeflationary in terms of gold, yes. Gold could end up not bidding for any amount of paper. It seems inevitable that the debt will be erased by USD debasement. Why refuse to pay your debt when you can legally counterfeit money?
Could end up heating our homes with $100,000,000.00 bills.
jeff
ReplyDeleteImpossible.
I love this picture.
ReplyDeleteA Zimbabwian holding a sign that says "Starving Billionaire", with 100 billion dollar notes attached.
http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/09/just-another-hyperinflation-post-part-3.html
Gary,
ReplyDeleteWith AGQ we are already leveraged. Does one need to leverage additionally should we want to be more aggressive with our strategy? Or, would one simply be able to allocate a larger % of their portfolio to AGQ since its already providing leverage innately?
AGQ isn't actually leverage. It's just a very volatile asset. You can take a 100% position in AGQ and never have to worry about getting a margin call.
ReplyDeleteTechnically I wasn't correct when I said Bam was leveraging on top of leverage by purchasing AGQ options.
When I say leverage I mean either borrowing from your broker on margin to buy more shares than you could normally control or buying options or futures and controlling more shares or more oz. than you could with an outright purchase of the shares or oz.
FWIW you can achieve the same kind of volatile moves as AGQ by purchasing individual juniors. Some of them will move hundreds of percent during this final C-wave but they aren't technically leverage.
ReplyDeleteJames R,
ReplyDeleteThis is the latest from clive maund,
http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68
Maund has been wrong almost every time I've read his analysis. I'd be open to his views if the dollar wasn't due for it's three year low.
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteIs an example of an individual junior HL?
Thank you.
I wouldn't really consider HL a junior. GPL or USA.v would be more of what I had in mind.
ReplyDeleteI take a look at this blog on a regular basis, and his latest entry is about PM's.
ReplyDeletehttp://animalspiritforecasts.blogspot.com/
The blog owner has come up with a calculation that he refers to as I1 for stocks and PM1 for precious metals. In the chart PM1 is the blue line. As you can see from past PM1 versus past price history it doesn't always track exactly, but it often comes close. (PM1 doesn't give price, just direction and maybe the severity of the move.)
I'm posting this because his PM1 is gradually rising into late April/early May which corresponds to Gary's rough timing for this next leg (and last leg) in the C wave.
Note that after that top in PM1, it tanks into June. Gary's D wave?
Also note that in the past PM1 turned down before gold price turned, so the timing on PM1 is not likely to nail the day, or even exact week, of the top.
Agree about Maund. Another BB I belonged to, we used him as a contrary indicator (except it wasn't perfect, he was right about 1 in 6 times).
ReplyDeleteHe loves to draw those dome patterns. Gold has to go up by only 8 bucks or so to negate it. You could draw a dome around the June-July action last year, too, and it came in at $1200. Gold broke right through it and ran to $1400+.
A lot of newsletter writers naturally want to add subscriptions and the strategy of some is to scare the hell out of people to get them. Look at Prechter, he had been calling for gold to go to $400 for years. Still claims the Dow will drop to 1000.
Gary,
ReplyDeleteYou are wrong about AGQ. It is leverage. You will not get a margin call simply because AGQ adjusts its leverage on a daily basis. If you leverage yourself on the futures market but always adjust your position you will also not get a margin call.
It is a very volatile asset that is designed to double the percentage moves in silver but then like I said so will some juniors. Does that mean they are leverage?
ReplyDeleteThe bottom line is you won't get a margin call with AGQ even if you buy with 100% of your account but you will have to weather big moves in either direction. So everyone will have to decide how much of this is appropriate for their portfolio.
Just do the calculation and figure out what your loss would be if the HUI tags 518 and then only buy as much as you can handle if that event does happen.
I was talking about gold 1396 for a while. However, having learnt my lesson when I missed gold short by a few ticks when it crapped out from 1400+, I decided to use a range of 1388-1396. I was looking for gold close of 1388 or higher... Yeah in Globex, gold is higher... but come Tuesday cash close... I expect something very different.
ReplyDeleteHonestly speaking, the way dollar is tanking DOES bother me... but I will stick to my plan.. Entered big short positions in /GC and GDX and small speculative short in Silver (via SLV puts) at EOD Friday.
I am not looking for a very big down move... not at least right now... I suspect 1310 will more or less hold for now... We need to see the nature of the down move to decide how far down this will go...
Two possibilities
1. Final shake out for weak bulls coming now with breach of 1300 before we go into orbit as far as PMs are concerned (terminal crash of USD)
2. We indeed see a more bigger down move... What will be the catalyst - not sure...
At this point higher probability scenario is (1).
I just put in the comment #666... how appropriate for me, esp on this board LOL
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteThanks. My calculation shows that's about a 6.5% drop, is that correct?
In regards to those two juniors you mentioned, GPL and USA.v, would you expect AGQ to outperform or is it probable that these juniors may?
If not, all things be equal would it be advisable to just pick up more AGQ and ride - OR - better to diversify those funds even if it be into those juniors?
TIA.
Burrito Dude,
ReplyDeleteI am sharing what I see right now.... I will adjust my view based on what I see.. I have NO ISSUES accept if and when I am wrong.
You can't come to me with what I said 3 months ago... As market changes, so does our view. Only fools hold onto their view of months and years ago even when things are changing.
Noam,
ReplyDeleteI just pulled those two names out of the air as examples.
If one spreads risk across a basket of juniors I doubt they will be able to outperform AGQ. If someone is willing to accept huge risk and concentrate in one or two juniors...and they get lucky they may outperform AGQ, maybe even by a huge margin. However the risk is gigantic concentrating in one or two highly speculative juniors. And what are the odds you catch one of the very few big movers? Not good.
All in all very few people will be able to outperform a simple strategy of holding AGQ with what are exposure you are comfortable with.
MLMT cannot see the forest for the trees. He still can't understand that nobody cares about a 2 day pullback. Not only do we have fat profits, but we'd welcome the opportunity to buy more. Keep guessing which direction the next 3% will go, while the rest of us get paid.
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteDo you think you are outperforming SLV by holding AGQ? You are just adding risk and return. On a risk-adjusted basis, both of these assets are exactly the same.
Gary,
ReplyDeleteSo, if eventually the state of our currency gets to the point where the government just scraps it and starts over as you say, where is your wealth going to be sitting at that point? Do you plan to have moved to physical by then? I suppose its pointless to own shares of silver and silver miners worth millions of dollars if millions of dollars won't be enough to buy food...
David,
ReplyDeleteYes AGQ is just a way to achieve a greater return on invested capital during what I believe will be the final leg up in this C-wave.
P,
ReplyDeleteIf it becomes apparent the US is going to hyperinflate I will have already left the country by then :)
New Zealand or Australia are both appealing and both have excellent climbing opportunities.
How much warning will we have?
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteWhat happens to personal debt if the US dollar is replaced?
Rob,
ReplyDeleteI really couldn't say as I've never experienced a hyperinflation.
Let's just hope that we are smart enough to get Ben out of office and someone in who can understand the concept of unintended consequences and stop this before it goes beyond the point of no return.
MLMT,
ReplyDeleteI appreciate your 666 post. You gave possible scenarios and also stated that neither might not happen. What would be even better is if you gave some reasons as to why you think we're in for a move down here.
I think what people here have reacted to regarding your posts have been the way what you're saying comes across as certainty (rather than probability) and the way most of your posts say nothing about why you're expecting the market to move the way you're stating it will.
What are your stops on your short positions (or to put it another way, what price will gold and miners have to trade at in order to convince you that your scenario is off the table)?
Well it looks like silver is well bid tonight. So I am guessing this leg up may/will be extreme/parabolic due to the collapse of the $usd (3yr low) and the inflation it drives compared to the first leg up ?
ReplyDeleteoh ya look at crude up 1.43%
ReplyDeletepima,
ReplyDeleteI don't really care about MLMT's certainty in his predictions as he might even be right. I tend to think he won't be, but that's not the jist of my observation.
The fact he is only betting (or suggesting) the next few percent lower just proves he's focused on something entirely different than the rest of us. I don't care one iota if metals drop from here because I'm a buyer.
if gold hits 96 at this speed, its going to be a ugly train wreck lol
ReplyDeleteI have to say that MLMT is an absolute genius to call for a correction after gold has been up now for 6 straight days,including today and has hit the top of it's upchannel from the low at 1308. That's a ballsy call(extreme sarcasm).
ReplyDeleteSilver is "never" this strong on a Sunday night out of the gate.
ReplyDeletesilver gapped up 16 cents on the futures open. i looked back to jan 6 and could not look back any futher.. normal is jump up but not gap up. i hear yall talking about gaps being filled. Would this quallify?
ReplyDeletei have been wathcing for more than a year and have never seen a gap up or down on the futures
ReplyDeleteGary: "New Zealand or Australia are both appealing and both have excellent climbing opportunities."
ReplyDeleteAh, but burritos will be made using kangaroo in one place and mutton in the other. The tortilla chips will be beer-battered, and there will be no limes for your cervezas.
Are you prepared?
I want to write a few words about why I think PM's are increasing in price. Please note that in light of what I'm observing here, it really doesn't matter whether inflation soars or the dollar collapses. Gold will just keep increasing in price.
ReplyDeleteBack about the turn of the century (this one), the gold industry faced a marketing problem that split them severely. Some gold miners thought that increased demand through jewelry (the traditional way) was the answer. These miners had heavily sold forward contracts in the market and were not actually looking for higher prices.
But a more forward thinking group (one of the more prominent and outspoken was Gold Fields) advocated marketing gold directly to investors. This group pointed out that traditionally the weakest holders of gold were central banks, and the very strongest holders were individuals who bought gold for their own account!
But the problem was that very few people wanted to haggle with coin dealers to purchase gold. In short, it was just too hard to buy. And few trusted gold miners stock for obvious reasons.
But these miners knew one thing. If they could find a way to market physical gold directly to investors, and the price started to climb, this alone would create more additional demand than untold advertising dollars could ever create.
So someone suggested that gold could be sold as a stock, where each share of stock represented a physical quantity of gold stored in a vault. This idea led to GLD years later in 2005.
But with the very rumor of this idea, the current gold bull market was born.
In 2001 Adam Hamilton wrote these words that have proved all too true:
"Wake up and seize your destiny, gold industry! You can control your own fate! Give the citizens of the world an easy way to buy small quantities of gold and watch global gold investment demand and the gold price soar!"
In 1999, the Fed flooded the market with excess liquidity fearing Y2K, and the price of gold yawned. With the advent of the gold and silver ETF's, that sort of thing cannot happen anymore.
Where is gold going ? It's going into about 5% of the average investors account worldwide from less than one percent today. I suspect that will ultimately be about the recommended level for PM's in every portfolio. And at today's gold prices, there isn't anywhere like enough gold in the entire world to do that!
jeff..
ReplyDeleteGold
Gap up.. Jan 10 2010
Selling because one is looking for a gap fill is one of the easiest ways to lose one's position.
ReplyDeleteIf the gap is going to fill just ride it out because the penalty for losing ones position could cause you to miss a much bigger move.
Besides unless the gap fills immediately virtually everyone will freak out and buy back higher if the gap starts to widen. Then if the gap fills you have an even larger draw down.
1396.7 topped out and tanked to 1395.6 lmao.. just kidding =) old turkey anyway, 1250? bring it on baby
ReplyDelete"What happens to personal debt if the US dollar is replaced?"
ReplyDeleteAfter living through 6 different currencies in Brazil:
Cruzeiro Novo Cr$ 1967–1986
Cruzado Cz$ 1986–1989
Cruzado Novo NCz$ 1989–1990 Cruzeiro Cr$ 1990–1993
Cruzeiro Real CR$ 1993–1994
and Real R$ 1994–present
your personal debt is converted to the new currency according to an official exchange rate table. I don't know more details than that. I remember though, how important it is, not get sucked into inflation adjusted debt.
(There were two more other currencies before I was born!)
gary i will not be doing any tradeing. i have one more contract to put on and i will try to do that on the next pullback. that will put me at 120%
ReplyDeleteBreakaway gaps fill within 1 to 5 periods. So far, the 1 min is history. The 5 is smoked, too.
ReplyDeleteGary is right; the longer the gap remains open, the more anxiety, especially if not filled within 3 periods.
The MLMT's of the world are faced now with their revealing where their come to jesus epiphany really is.
Reference the list of who's trapped and why, posted by me earlier in this thread.
The fundamentals? Anyone care to comment on the joke of the G20 meeting failure? Or the Libyan turkey shoot? Or or or?
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeletegary . i only learned of the gap trade from this blog. never heard of it before. i dont think the futures get to many gaps
ReplyDeleteMovax.
ok i see that one
i told my broker i was going old turkey and he very nicely said that would be a good idea. nice guy, he just isnt going to make much off of me now
ReplyDeleteSilver lease rates are spiking higher, meaning no silver available. :-)
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteyou write "I'll just sit tight myself. If the market corrects I'll decide whether I want to add more exposure".
You are, I believe, at 130%. What would be your max exposure?
gary
ReplyDeleteMy wife has her 401k and it has almost recovered. Now its going to get clobbered again. How could i Hedge it for her.
no she is not going to go with pm
so can i short something along the way to offset it?
SB,
ReplyDeleteMLMT's recent post has a completely different tone than the ones he made a few days ago. The earlier ones were short and were calling for a huge drop to 1150 or so, as well as stating 1400 would never be seen again.
You're right that this new post really doesn't concern those of us who are in this for more than a few percentage points, although if he turns out to be right about a drop to 1308, that would be uncomfortable while it lasted.
But as we speak, silver is above $33! And gold at 1394, so a drop to 1308 seems like a bit of a long shot at this point, eh?
funny artical about john naddler, the head of kitco. for the last 10 years, the artical said, if you double his prediction for the price of gold for the end of the year he was within 30 dollars. he said 400 it would be 800 and so forth.. so for this year he is saying 1150. i guess gold will be 2300.. ya baby
ReplyDeletedollar up, metals up. dollar down, metals jump even more.
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteYou have stated before you don't believe in physical metals but you can imagine a scenario of the US being in an era of hyperinflation. Would it be safe to say you would be picking up some physical during the D wave? Because if you are going to take off to Australia, what would you carry with you? All your worthless USD??
Gary,
ReplyDeleteYou have to be younger than 46 yr old to qualify for a visa for Australia.
Someone can correct me on this.
James
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteGold and silver are rising. We will see very shortly if MLMT is correct.
ReplyDeleteI think he is wrong based on gold sentiment and the COT being at there lowest since August of last year.
It seems those who are bearish are only looking at charts and NOT fundamentals.
James
I'm a Canuck abroad in Asia and a big fan of New Zealand as a future destination. It's nice and compact, with beautiful geography and friendly people. And don't quote me on it, but I've heard there's some sort of four-year tax holiday on money that's brought in there by immigrants (and maybe returning Kiwi emigres).
ReplyDeleteThank you Bamster.
ReplyDeleteI just read it.
James
The question still remains: Where will pm's be trading when the SPX is trading at 2800?
ReplyDeleteThen we will know what the pm trade was really based on.
Fear.
Fear and Optimism don't go hand in hand.
This is the week fund managers and investors will chase the price of gold and silver as the dollar tanks and people realize that gold is not going to fall back to 1300.
ReplyDeleteBasil,
ReplyDeleteI might consider 140-150%.
Beanie-
ReplyDeleteYou're a jackass. Several times you have posted that and several times you have been solidly rebuffed. PMs starting trading higher in 2001 once the dollar trashing went into overdrive. At the absolute height of total fear in the markets in 2008, gold was getting rocked (paper price). There's is absolutely no fear in the markets these days and even during the fear sell off last spring/summer we saw gold trade higher but they sell off during the summer. This is all about the USD and other fiat currencies around the world being trashed one by one.
Besides, we are all mostly long silver here--an industrial/monetary metal that is way under valued and impacted by economic growth, money growth, supply/demand imbalances, etc. SLW is up 20%+ since many here bought it last month. I think we are in a pretty good intermediate and long term trade here, thanks.
Jeff,
ReplyDeleteShe just needs to convert her stock funds to a money market before the next leg of the bear begins.
Even if the SPX doubles to 2800, we would see a price of silver north or 200 or 7x+ the current price.
ReplyDeleteYou should go long SLW Beanie.
Oh and if we do have hyperinflation remember canned goods can be more valuable than gold.
ReplyDeleteJames
Jeff,
ReplyDeleteHave your wife move her 401k to a money market or a fixed fund.
Trader Dan 2-20 5:20 pm pdst
ReplyDeleteI prefer to ... see how the market handles resistance levels. Silver this week has taken them out as if they were non-existent. That tells me that some large short is in serious trouble and that buying momentum is extremely strong. If silver can take out the region near $33.25-$33.50 I am expecting it to then make a sharp push towards $35. If it takes out $35, my goodness, this thing is going to get ugly for the shorts!"
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/02/silver-bankers-sitting-on-big.html
ReplyDeleteMy question is simple. What are bankers like J.P. Morgan and HSBC doing playing in such size in this market? What is the economic and productive benefit? Perhaps there is a good answer. The taxpaying public certainly deserves to know. The CFTC says they have looked into this, but the detailed results of their findings remain less than forthcoming.
IF this is legitimate hedging for producers then all well and good, but then there is no justification for secrecy. If these are trading positions held by the bank, or by the bank as agent for speculators, then there may be a greater reason for secrecy, but the magnitude of the shorts is far out of bounds in size. Ten years of production is not a short position, but the entire market and then some.
Trader Dan: Commercial Signal Failure.
ReplyDeletehttp://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/02/what-is-commercial-signal-failure.html
Interesting though you gotta see it as MSM thinking, as it's observational with what I consider untrustworthy analysis.
Gary understands. TD is talking observation after the fact. Something happens, and then something else happens. No forethought or pre planning permitted.
This CSF however, when reflecting on this, is a valid reason why the miners are lagging. They're short and they need to ante up more margin. So, they, the producers, are panicking because they need to pony up the silver, not JPM!
ReplyDeleteThat idea came from "Stock" at Trader Dan's site. A stunning bit of thinking. What a fundamental reason that really does drive markets.
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteWhat is our estimate target for this last C-wave?
Thank you
James
The silver market is funny to watch in the access session.
ReplyDeleteat 3312, the bid was 2 at 11.50 and the ask was 167 at 12.
surrounding this were bids of 1's 2's 5's, and a few 7's
The big boys have just tried to cap the market and they did frighten away the rally., it now being 09.50
james
ReplyDeletehe has answered that question like 3 times in this thread already.
Chicken Burrito,
ReplyDeleteRemember, the silver trade is based on the belief that the Fed will print us into oblivion. It is a fear trade. What if the fed decides it stocks printing tomorrow and starts raising interest rates? What if the government decides it wants to confiscate silver to slow down its speculative excess.
Gary's reasoning is basically the market goes down and pm's zoom through the roof. I think he realizes pm's and the market can't rise together and that eventually one of the two has to give. Since he is a believer of pm's, he believes the market is going to plunge and soon.
What if Gary is wrong? What if the market continues to rise, on its way to SPX 2,800? If Gary's thesis is that precious metals go higher and stock market plunges, what if the stock market moves much higher? Isn't it logical, then, that pm's must plunge based on the same reasoning/thesis?
Is this unusual that now in the nite session with trading in the 1's and 5's, there's an ask at 1312, now 5 pts above the market of 06.5, of 162 contracts?
ReplyDeleteThere's an elephant trying to unload there. I don't get it. They want to be seen, as the big bad boys. If they're signaling, they're trying to scare the longs. Instead of driving the price down by selling, they're waiving a flag.
mad,
ReplyDeleteI'll look for it.
Thank you
Slum-
ReplyDeleteI just read that Norcini blog. SLW not being a miner would not be hedging like the producers, correct? I still would think that if the comment were true about the producers, SLW would be lagging as well. SLW is looking tremendous.
AH action esp on a sunday night when monday is a holiday means nothing.
ReplyDeleteGo see what happened to NQ on Steven Jobs on Monday morning news... And see where NQ closed a day later....
This is just sucker action... nothing more...
I am not afraid to be wrong.... I know my risk/reward... 1396 breached in NYSE hours.... means I am wrong... Overnight action like this is bullshit and nothing more...
ReplyDeleteBeanie,
ReplyDeleteIf the Dow goes to 36,000, then gold goes to $36,000 as well.
Silver just hit $33.38 in overnight markets.
ReplyDeletethe "bullshit" overnight action is making me a killing! Silver over $33.33 as I type!
ReplyDeleteMLMT,
ReplyDeleteYou said a number of times you are not afraid to be wrong. Once you also said "so I am wrong, what do you want me to do?"
I think you are missing the point.
No harm being wrong and admitting it. But what we would like you to do is...
1. ANALYSIS. ANALYSIS. ANALYSIS. How many times must we say this? Gary coached us in detail on his analysis. We tooks months to fully appreciate his approach. Those of us who are fortunate enough to follow him at least over the past few months (or years) have experienced the success of his methods. And you are trying to convince us otherwise with one-liners? Like "Watch out at 1396!"
2. Nothing is fullproof though and that is why we have stops. Gary laid out what the stops are before hand in case he is wrong. As for you, you prognosticate as though you were 100% certain. You do not tell us what to look for in case you are wrong. In fact you sometimes give predictions like you will never be wrong. YOu only admit to your mistakes after the fact - sometimes way after. If we were to follow you, we might lose big time before you posted that you were wrong.
DG does not agree with Gary all the time but he states his stops up front. That is useful information even if you do not agree with his trading style.
In sum, I (and maybe some others) won't bother with your posts until you address those points. But if you feel an urge to post - just go ahead. Don't be surprised if no one bothers.
Beanie,
ReplyDeleteIf Gary is wrong - no sweat because we have our stops.
But what if he is right!
Everyone,
ReplyDeleteBeanie has confirmed he is a troll.
Deny him his oxygen by ignoring him.
MLMT
ReplyDeleteYou have been asked umpteen times why gold will fail at 1396. Not once, you have outlined the reasons. As RA mentioned, only 1-liners. A contrary idea is welcome with reasons. Its ANNOYING otherwise.
'Overnight' for the US, 4% of the world's population, for the rest it is workday.
ReplyDeleteAnd 96% of the world is not on holiday tomorrow.
Ok, so the document that the judge ordered released was 'gata-crap' because the transcripts in it doesn't correspond to one's point of view. "this is the conclusion on which i draw my facts". (Stevenson)
ReplyDeleteBeanie,
ReplyDeleteIf the Fed does quit printing the stock market will collapse.
We saw that happen this summer.
Not to mention we've seen gold rise during the bear market of 2000-2002. We've seen it rise during the cyclical bull market from 2002-2007.
We've seen it rise from Oct. 07 to March 08 when the stock market had already entered another bear market.
We saw gold bottom months before the stock market and by the time the stock market bottomed gold was already back near all time highs.
Gold has gone up when the stock market has gone down and it has gone up when stocks have risen. It's called a secular bull market.
Sheesh, At least look at a long term chart before you make ridiculous statements like gold has to trade inversely of stocks.
It's not "overnight" when it trades around the world and around the clock!
ReplyDeleteWhy you guys keep emotionally reacting to the trolls is beyond me.
The fact that the rest of the world is working doesn´t mean much. The US is still responsible for much of the trading volume in futures market, and you also have to consider the fact that the rest of the world takes into account the US holliday and therefore the big players are not initiating big positions today.
ReplyDeleteNot that I agree with MLMT´s calls, but he is right to say that you shouldn´t put much emphasis in yesterday´s and today´s action.
Ordinarily I would agree, but the "US futures" markets are open, this isn't just overseas markets!
ReplyDeleteThe type of move you're seeing this morning is very far from normal US equity holiday trading. It's plain to see that traders are not going to wait, the confirmation is clear, IMO.
Hammy in the UK thinks there will be a pullback when the UK market closes.
ReplyDeleteAGoldHamster in kitco and at his own, now private, blog.
I don't think anybody is "putting too much emphasis" on today's action. This is just one day in a several month trade.
ReplyDeleteBesides, try buying silver right now. You'll pay roughly a buck more than Friday. The price is the price, and it's going up.
I agree, this action certainly doesn't feel like bullshit. As someone based in Asia, I'm used to relatively quiet days for the PMs when North America is closed. But today's action here is very impressive. I imagine it has to do with traders in other parts of the world reacting to silver's big move on Friday in US trading. And in turn, I expect North American action to have some sizzle tomorrow following silver's big move up here. It really is a global market for the PMs.
ReplyDelete"Hammy in the UK thinks there will be a pullback when the UK market closes."
ReplyDeleteSo what's he doing with that information? I have no idea what will happen after the UK closes, and it's likely Hammy doesn't, either.
Hey, it's the overnite market. It's nearly 5 am, dark outside, and cold. The US market, like it or not, now at least 1/2 the time, that 4%, dictates the game. Or didn't you notice that most of the time the markets after hours, oops, after the US trading window, as in conscious, awake peeps looking at the US market, have thin volumes?
ReplyDeleteWhen these facts change, then we can look at it again.
MLMT, is this trading here all BS, too? It's 1401.4 now and was 1403. That's only 5 or 6 above your predicted high, or 13 to 15 above the lower number in your band.
ReplyDeleteAt what number do you think there's a loss?
As Hammy would say, "It's Mister Market that's in charge." These are real numbers, and if you're short, your will against the market, to be right? Go read Trader Dan's posting about this, posted yesterday, my time.
Yeah but 5am "is the other side of the world" :) EST is all that matters.
ReplyDeleteWell the US market is open today, so we shall see the action in 15 minutes.
BB, Hammy's record in the past year is either 5 or 6 X on his positions.
ReplyDeleteHe's like water on a hot skillet, and he's crazily diligent in his examining of all opinions.
Gary, Hammy, QuadG, and a few other less committed to be present in the public eye consistently are the current, near term, future callers.
Your logic is fine for those who like it. Mine is large physical postion, but never large enough, which is parked as in never moves, and high anxiety over tiny positions relative to NAV traded often. Old Turkey when in the market is way difficult for me, but not for you.
Again I ask, what's Hammy doing with his information?
ReplyDeleteWho cares about volume? It's far over-rated. Sure, it's nice to have "confirmation", but often big volume signals the end of a move. Makes sense when you consider that everybody has already placed their bets.
Price is all I care about. If somebody wanted to make a volume comparison, they should compare typical after-hours to todays, not regular daily volume to now. Apples to apples, as they say.
Poly, where are you? I'm sure you posted, but I don't read all the comments all the time.
ReplyDeleteBB: "what's Hammy doing with his information?"
ReplyDeleteHe's long til 37 which he conjectures will be tomorrow or through the end of this month. He's looking at contracts open for delivery and has been for weeks. That's his most important fact, right now. He's very ecclectic, everywhere, like the best type of an ADHD personality, brilliant and hugely aware.
Gary's much more stable, calm and committed. Hammy is out for himself and other independently thinking traders whose ideas he welcomed in the past, but for the moment, those he terms as "haters" clearly influence his demeanor, so he privatized his blog. Gary has a strong sense of commitment to his subs and he's rooted. Hammy is great if one likes that style of thought process.
My own serious, real money in size at risk for me is dependent on the price of gold over the next 5 days, US time. So far, so good.
I'm in NYC
ReplyDelete$1,645,000,000,000.00 is the projected U.S. deficit for 2011, revised upward from $1,400,000,000,000.00, revised upward from $1,270,000,000,000.00 in December.
ReplyDeleteIt appears that the Federal Reserve will need to continue monetizing the debt endlessly. Not doing so would guarantee very high interest charges, collapsing the US Government. QE-2 will be extended in June.
As inflation picks up USG spending will skyrocket, revenue will sink, increasing the deficit by leaps and bounds, increasing the mandatory monetization of the debt by leaps and bounds.
ReplyDeleteThis is what leads to hyperinflation down the road, government spending/debt that is. It's obviously on the cusp of spinning out of control.
The states will have to be bailed out with counterfeit money, increasing the deficit. What other emergency spending will crop up?
ReplyDeleteWe're in the eye of the storm here and as the tide goes out more will be revealed as wearing no clothes, increasing bailouts, increasing deficits, increasing monetization of debt.
MLMT, could you please elaborate on your "we will never see 1400 gold in our lifetime again" or something to that effect? How about you elaborate a bit too about how you may have discouraged some with less gold market experience to not get invested near the lows? Oh, and while you're at it please make some more "predictions" like NEVER will we see 1500,1600,1800,2000 gold ever? I hope anyone here that has been influenced by his bullshit will realize it for what it is(just a BS opinion) and trade accordingly.The gold market may well get a correction this week with futures options expiry but all probabilities point to it being just that, a correction that should be bought until proven otherwise.
ReplyDeleteWhy bother with random unqualified posts from trolls?
ReplyDeleteNYMEX is confirming the "afterhours" action. It's as official as can be :)
Hedging is an issue for those (like me) who own miners as well as vehicles like AGQ etc. I wouldn't want to be invested in any company shorting the product it produces.
ReplyDeleteAs I understand it, SLW is OK as it buys silver at fixed prices and sells it on later when the miners they make deals with are producing. The junior exploration companies are OK, too, because they are exploring, not producing, so they have nothing to hedge anyway.
However, I am wondering about some of the smaller junior silver producers just coming into production. My understanding is that they are often required to hedge in order to obtain financing.
Does anyone know of any smaller miners that are hedged? Am I right not to be concerned about junior explorers? I own a few of them.
Thanks in advance.
for the record MLMT is shorting silver as per his admission last night. Lets see how many more days he will maintain his bearish views.
ReplyDeletevuvvy, MLMT has already said that this overnight stuff "doesn't count", so even though MLMT said gold would NEVER see 1400 again and gold is at 1402.50 as I type this and , IT DOESN'T COUNT!
ReplyDeleteJust for the record ... not that I support MLMT's opinion but ... he did retract that comment about gold never reaching 1400 ever again.
ReplyDeleteWhat I find fascinating is that people are carrying on like everything is fine. We're in a surreal world aboard a vessel that's unsinkable but sinking.
ReplyDeleteMaybe the ill fated passengers aboard the Titanic behaved similarly. Thinking everything will be fine, there's plenty of time. The music is soothing. But the lower decks are flooding and the pumps are screaming, unable to keep up. The hull is torn and the engine rooms are awash.
The captain, officers, and crew are aware of the impending tragedy but stay busy keeping the passengers calm. God forbid they panic.
Not enough lifeboats for everyone anyway and no rescue ships on the horizon. It'll take a miracle.
okay, I'll bite... Redwine, what are you doing to be prepared for the moment the ship goes down? And it sounds like in your opinion that could be sooner rather than later? What is your estimated time of sinkage (ETS)?
ReplyDeleteShould be interesting to see what happens with today's move given that US markets are closed. Obviously big traders can use trading desks in London and around the world to participate, but will the volume in the US be affected tomorrow by bottled up interest in the metals?
ReplyDeleteI don't recall seeing Silver up over a buck three days in a row during this C-Wave.
Avann, I didn't know that MLMT had retracted the "never about 1400" call. Thanks for clearing that up.
ReplyDeleteHe has said that he has no problem in being wrong, but some of his statements are pretty bold.
Rant... silver jumping up and gold in the frikkin doldrums. Got dynamite, anyone? A stick up its xxs might help.
ReplyDeleteGuys, NYMEX is OPEN, you're fooling yourself if you think this is overseas action. Sure it's not all hands on deck.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteNEW POST
ReplyDeleteDear Clive Maund
ReplyDeleteThank you for the bearish post on Gold YESTERDAY :)
http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68
AHHH , Your DOME currently has a Gaping hole in it...what will you use to patch it? follow up bullish post?
Thx :)
p.s. todays move also changes your rising wedge to a nice up-trending channel ( I wish you wouldn't jump the gun so much. Let the chart tell you what gold is doing and not visa versa-) or else you'll continue to give tech analysis a bad name.
Poly, Trollnd :)
ReplyDeleteI might have this flipped flopped but the silver options expire on the 23rd and the futures options expire on the 28th could explain some of the upward movement. Shorters need to cover :)
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeletehow high do you believe gold and silver will be before this bull ends?
Thx
Wes,
ReplyDeleteThe embedded nature of silver (and as of a couple of days ago gold) are extremely strong imo. This is a really "hidden" T/A element b/c almost all traders would say that silver is is nose bleed overbought status. But strangely enough when something becomes overbought enough (slow stochs, both lines over 80 for at least 3 days) it is actually getting stronger in that direction.
Silver became embedded around 28-29 area and most people thought it was overbought but of course we know what happened since then.
I've followed this indicator for a number of years and it can give head-fakes but I do not believe this is one of them. The headfakes usually occur when the stochs are over 80 for maybe a day or two and then fall back under 80 on the third day. I've been burned once jumping the gun but also benefitted a couple of times by jumping the gun.
Again, any dips so long as we stay embedded are bear traps (as in all the dips, to the extent there were a few) and should be bought. The one issue that someone mentioned earlier is that we are over the bolinger band.
What I usually notice in these situations is that the upper bb starts a steep rise (in this case the one that I am using is moving about 30 cents per day) and the commodity simply continues to ride it.
Other very recent examples of this include the CRB, copper, cotton, and a number of other commodities.
I've tried it on stocks and it seems to work there as well but I haven't used it as extensively in that area.
Hope this helps.