tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post4052317625188094650..comments2023-10-29T02:04:09.499-07:00Comments on Smart Money Tracker: BREAKOUTGaryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comBlogger92125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-9551586540369674022010-05-21T06:04:47.692-07:002010-05-21T06:04:47.692-07:00As long as the central bank is willing to destroy ...As long as the central bank is willing to destroy the currency there is just no way for deflation to win.<br /><br />If they were so inclined the government could simply print enough money to mail everyone a check for a million dollars.<br /><br />Sounds ridiculous but hey we are just talking scale. They have already done exactly that with the rebate checks twice now.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-62492287875139600192010-05-21T06:01:39.733-07:002010-05-21T06:01:39.733-07:00http://www.pcasd.com/us_not_going_down_japans_road...http://www.pcasd.com/us_not_going_down_japans_road<br /><br />Here is a good article with a long term Japanese M2 chart. I have also argued that M2 (in the US) is not a good measure because it fluctuates due to non-money components like MMMF, but over 10 years it should give a fair insight into monetary conditions.<br /><br />This chart tells you two things: no monetary deflation in Japan and definitely no "wanton money printing".Frankhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11715196278958278877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-48264408243634992852010-05-21T05:53:44.626-07:002010-05-21T05:53:44.626-07:00Now with low CPI data, we have the deflationists c...Now with low CPI data, we have the deflationists coming out of the woodwork. That is actually bullish because it will justify more printing/QE from Ben.<br /><br />The two nitwits on Yahoo claim that the Japanese "printed like crazy" and nothing happened. It is simply not true that Japan increased the money supply aggressively.Frankhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11715196278958278877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-27103751327868284802010-05-19T15:01:50.664-07:002010-05-19T15:01:50.664-07:00And for kicks... lol ... let's go ahead and li...And for kicks... lol ... let's go ahead and list the potential bottoming dates for gold... (could be hogwash, but here's a shot). More priority should be around the first 2 dates... In fact, I'd buy on both with stop losses set tightly to prevent damages. <br /><br />Friday, July 09, 2010<br />Saturday, July 17, 2010 <br />Friday, July 30, 2010<br />Friday, August 20, 2010<br />Sunday, September 05, 2010<br />Wednesday, September 22, 2010Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-87508383230776152162010-05-19T13:59:28.798-07:002010-05-19T13:59:28.798-07:00About a week ago, we discussed gold topping on a p...About a week ago, we discussed gold topping on a prospective date - "5/14" was the date I gave. Sure enough, it did. <br /><br />If it does not hold, I'd enter a short order 'only on a gold peak' on 5/27, 6/17 or 7/3/10... <br />pH11Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-70216479590621213892010-05-19T07:22:42.603-07:002010-05-19T07:22:42.603-07:00Let's go ZSL - Bwave - here we come.
pH11Let's go ZSL - Bwave - here we come. <br />pH11Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-26953273181271116972010-05-16T18:16:09.430-07:002010-05-16T18:16:09.430-07:00We would most definitely not be shorting miners. T...We would most definitely not be shorting miners. The preciosu metal sector is still in a secular bull market.<br /><br />I was just pointing out a safer strategy for those who can't resist wasting their time and capital on shorting.<br /><br />We will just remain focused on the gold bull and making the big money.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-66280371359995712342010-05-16T18:09:14.123-07:002010-05-16T18:09:14.123-07:00Gary, you mentioned - if we have a new low ( lower...Gary, you mentioned - if we have a new low ( lower than 1044, feb. 5) are we to view the chart drawing a line upwards to where a new low may be somewhere just below S&P 1,065?<br /><br />So 1,055 might be the breakage of the feb. 5 low and then look for a miner rally before we could short?TommyDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12469182759859371727noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-6224866124852493962010-05-16T17:59:03.382-07:002010-05-16T17:59:03.382-07:00Thanks Alex, Jansen was the guy that woke me up to...Thanks Alex, Jansen was the guy that woke me up to this problem...I read one of his books early 08.<br /><br />JayhawkAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-55721108298799658362010-05-16T11:06:48.351-07:002010-05-16T11:06:48.351-07:00The guys at ITulip have a good view on gold, espec...The guys at ITulip have a good view on gold, especially that they dont have any interrest in short term moves. good read for the guys who think they need to trade the gold bull in and out.<br /><br />http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?15580-Before-the-FIRE-Gold-Update-Is-1-237-the-new-720-Eric-Janszen&p=161353#post161353Alexnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-61841057191817415772010-05-16T09:52:24.187-07:002010-05-16T09:52:24.187-07:00I would caution you against that for now. Sentimen...I would caution you against that for now. Sentiment has reached levels that generally spark powerful rallies in either a bull or bear market.<br /><br />Wait to see if the market makes lower lows by breaking below the Feb. 5th bottom. If it does then sell into the next rally.<br /><br />This is how bears get destroyed. They think they have to pick the exact top. Nothing could be further from the truth.<br /><br />A move from 100 to 20 is an 80% gain. But a move from 80 to 20 is a 75% gain. You see what I'm talking about? There's no need to jump the gun on the short side.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-649530842402358742010-05-16T09:43:33.153-07:002010-05-16T09:43:33.153-07:00The old Dollar Bull here stopping by to say hi. I ...The old Dollar Bull here stopping by to say hi. I was buying the dollar a couple months ago and getting flamed here, but I was also was giving the Gold pimps crap myself. Turns out we were both right about our trades, and wrong about dissing the other camp. We are all here to make money so it couldn't have turned out better, congrats. Looks like the game for now is flight to safety in the USD, PM's, and T Bonds. I am about to take the biggest short position in the equity market I have ever had, good luck to all you PM longs.Repo 105https://www.blogger.com/profile/18050892648962159683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-47932835461375956592010-05-16T09:14:36.042-07:002010-05-16T09:14:36.042-07:00George,
In reference to your link: The long term ...George,<br /><br />In reference to your link: The long term chart looks like the bottom in 2009 could be the same as the bottom in 74-75. In which case, the direction would be up. Also, if you want to simply compare patterns, look at the market ending around 1977...then look at what gold did for the next few years.<br /><br />The problem with patterns is they only use historical price and there's only so much you can gleam from this.<br /><br />The psychological factors, IMHO, are far more important. The loud voices lately seem to be saying buy PMs because easy monetary policies tend to support higher commodity prices (deflation is not to be allowed). Those who say sell PMs are only citing chart patterns. In short, one is saying look at history and the other is saying look at history AND future monetary policies.<br /><br />I wouldn't trade based only on chart patterns for the life of me. We've seen how obvious T/A patterns can be overrun by the central banks.Marchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13935848992860543227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-29995751909244731522010-05-16T06:35:58.330-07:002010-05-16T06:35:58.330-07:00Ahh if only it were as easy as looking at lines on...Ahh if only it were as easy as looking at lines on a chart.<br /><br />I can't tell you how many of these I've seen since March of 09. And so far every single one of them has been wrong.<br /><br />Until we start making lower lows and lower highs this remains a cyclical bull market and anyone foolish enough to short runs the risk of getting caught opposite Bernanke's printing press.<br /><br />Not my cup tea fighting something like that for tiny little gains that can evaporate in the blink of an eye. Especially when it's so much easier to just ride the bull market in gold.<br /><br />I just can't understand why anyone wants to battle with the market and the Fed, long or short, when there are basically piles of money laying in the corner just waiting to be picked up.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-651194325586160802010-05-16T06:19:36.175-07:002010-05-16T06:19:36.175-07:00Sober analysis with horrifying conclusions: http:/...Sober analysis with horrifying conclusions: http://whitemagicanditsexposure.blogspot.com/2010/05/it-cant-be-any-clearer.htmlGeorge Rahalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02498325227481537656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-77131886117097063772010-05-15T18:15:34.413-07:002010-05-15T18:15:34.413-07:00Great weekend report Gary!
Thanks!Great weekend report Gary!<br /><br />Thanks!Marchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13935848992860543227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-22391785568822967862010-05-15T07:19:44.453-07:002010-05-15T07:19:44.453-07:00anon-
I'm not moaning and I am taking respons...anon-<br /><br />I'm not moaning and I am taking responsibility. I was explaining to the other guy, Brian, my experience over the past several months. He was the one who told me "just blindly follow Gary and shut off the computer" basically. I incorporate Gary's cycle analysis into my decisions because trying to trade these stocks was killing me last year. I was simply pointing out that this year Gary has made a couple calls that would cause a newer sub to question he "next all in call". <br /><br />Also, I pointed out that it has been a discovery process for me personally the past few months. I've been able to drill down on stocks I would have picked, risk I can tolerate, temptations I am subject to (like clicking the sell button), etc...<br /><br />My decision is to go the physical route with a decent size position and trade/invest in the miners. These will be longer term holds (years), so the temptation to throw myself off the bull will hopefully go away. I will continue to read Gary's analysis, but I think something bigger picture like the Aden Forecast will serve my particular psychology better.Jayhawkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06180238054191226687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-5465534058117250142010-05-15T02:46:08.047-07:002010-05-15T02:46:08.047-07:00Gary said this but then he said this but then he d...Gary said this but then he said this but then he did this... jayhawk, you sound like a whining child! A man makes he's own investment decisions, even if you blindly follow someone elses call it was your money, your account and it was you who hit BUY. It doesn't matter even if your subscribing to Gary it's you who ultimately makes the investment decsion not Gary so you've no right to moan if it all goes wrong. Take the responsibility, the hit and the lesson and move on, ifyou think that reading Gary is having an unsettling effect on YOUR trading then don't read him!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-24988756085519175312010-05-14T22:21:50.075-07:002010-05-14T22:21:50.075-07:00"The physical thing is nothing more than sens..."The physical thing is nothing more than sensationalism by some radical gold bugs. Fiat currency isn't going away anytime soon ..."<br /><br />Good to read this dose of realism!<br /><br />Fiat money contributed as much to progress as the industrial revolution. Without it (and credit) we would be where we were 100 or 200 years ago. Who wants to go back? I don't!<br /><br />It's the system that needs and will to change. Fiat money itself isn't bad, it's how we use it.<br /><br />Gold isn't money either but it is a store of value, if only because humans want to see it as the store of value by excellence (but other commodities are too).<br /><br />Fiat money should only be a mean of payment and never be a store of value. That's why Keynes wrote about the death of the rentier.<br /><br />I see one advantage for physical gold though. You have it with you when they change the system. Maybe my grandma told me too much about the Gutt operation in Belgium after WWII where they needed to hand in their old fiat money in exchange for new and less fiat money, to stall post war inflation (frustrating was that the catholic church received the same amount of money and many people gave their money to the clericals to exchange it; of course they had to pay a fee to the clericals).<br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camille_Gutt (not much there though)Romandièrehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08846163422992501384noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-12963775057566915382010-05-14T14:44:22.643-07:002010-05-14T14:44:22.643-07:00Gold crossed the 1000euro line intraday, I guess t...Gold crossed the 1000euro line intraday, I guess that was the reason for the premarket run up in gold and than the fade.<br />Lets hope that this has a psychology meaning for the peolpe over here. Seeing gold above 1000 is a sign for sure, this could be more fuel in the fire ;).<br />Concerning SLW it looks like it is THE machine. With this strengh on a day like today and with a chart that screams "Help, I am hopelesly overbought" it looks like it is on its way for a parabolic run. Me hopes HL joins the party soon...<br />Everyone have a relaxing weekend. The PMs worked hard for us this week. Time to chill.Alexnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-3494210425244588752010-05-14T14:01:39.337-07:002010-05-14T14:01:39.337-07:00>SLW is a machine......
A well oiled machine!>SLW is a machine......<br /><br />A well oiled machine!LowTaxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01099351857921241386noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-61176234969725396332010-05-14T12:49:04.749-07:002010-05-14T12:49:04.749-07:00Nice performance by miners in the broad market hea...Nice performance by miners in the broad market headwind.<br /><br />A bit frustrated by NXG, which is my largest position now.<br /><br />SLW is a machine......Frankhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11715196278958278877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-40203916286109360082010-05-14T11:56:39.237-07:002010-05-14T11:56:39.237-07:00miners should not be positive in this market if go...miners should not be positive in this market if gold was not pushing higher in the short term. I think we extend herefor another week or so before we get a drop, makes more sense that way, plus we just flushed out a lot of sellersBlakehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08650600450661791461noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-49148684833043494882010-05-14T11:22:53.206-07:002010-05-14T11:22:53.206-07:00I think gold made an intraday high this morning.I think gold made an intraday high this morning.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-71595507062973265492010-05-14T08:46:32.437-07:002010-05-14T08:46:32.437-07:00it's gone down for 2 daysit's gone down for 2 daysBlakehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08650600450661791461noreply@blogger.com