tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post4291259129283695452..comments2023-10-29T02:04:09.499-07:00Comments on Smart Money Tracker: HERE WE GO AGAINGaryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comBlogger144125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-16859578474741475592011-01-20T12:27:53.783-08:002011-01-20T12:27:53.783-08:00Hi Gary, just wondering why your core account has ...Hi Gary, just wondering why your core account has only silver (SLV), silver miners (SIL) and gold juniors (GDXJ)? Why are GDX and GLD not getting any love?<br /><br />Sorry if you already discussed this.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04145441248615539017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-58070225698150796832011-01-20T12:26:23.283-08:002011-01-20T12:26:23.283-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04145441248615539017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-39661933997302243302011-01-19T13:52:34.518-08:002011-01-19T13:52:34.518-08:00Accumulation Distribution Ranking Updated. Seasona...Accumulation Distribution Ranking Updated. Seasonal trend shows more downside ahead<br /><br />http://pressurepointpivots.blogspot.com/Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04297491804149184129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-75997319930190789092011-01-18T04:33:52.060-08:002011-01-18T04:33:52.060-08:00New postNew postGaryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-59207702699950076792011-01-18T02:44:36.052-08:002011-01-18T02:44:36.052-08:00V,
That's not usually how the bubble phase beg...V,<br />That's not usually how the bubble phase begins. <br /><br />What entices the public into an asset is usually the speed that it recovers from the correction that separates phase two from phase three. <br /><br />A classic example is the recovery out of the LTCM debacle in late 98.<br /><br />That initiated the final bubble phase in stocks. At that point the public lost all fear of investing in stocks.<br /><br />I expect the same thing coming out of the 2016 8 year cycle low. Basically at that point I expect the ABCD wave pattern to breakdown and the A-wave should just turn into a parabolic blow off top.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-71350728750046422512011-01-18T00:52:05.422-08:002011-01-18T00:52:05.422-08:00Interesting that you guys think the bull market is...Interesting that you guys think the bull market is going to last so long, personally I could see it blowing off into a parabolic run much sooner (perhaps in the next 1-2 years). I discussed some thoughts on what we are seeing currently and why I think we are entering the 3rd phase on my blog the other day:<br /><br />http://www.bullionbaron.com/2011/01/goldsilver-entering-3rd-phase-of.html<br /><br />Would be interested on any feedback from those that are expecting another 8-10 years from this bull market.-https://www.blogger.com/profile/00031134329779415940noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-89081081198414312492011-01-17T21:59:02.446-08:002011-01-17T21:59:02.446-08:00Gary,
I tend to think it will take gold some time...Gary,<br /><br />I tend to think it will take gold some time to get back to its previous highs from the next 8 yr cycle low in mid to late 2016. I think we might see gold reach its old high at least 1 1/2 years so that would push the time period of the initial parabolic move into 2018 or so, therefore the move will take 1 to 2 years so I guess the top would be 2019 to 2020 (also a 3 yr dollar cycle low).Vegetahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03585221352422144651noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-8699300347650395642011-01-17T20:43:08.687-08:002011-01-17T20:43:08.687-08:00Several factors figure into my projection. First; ...Several factors figure into my projection. First; Most secular bull markets gain 2000% or better. I think the current gold bull will the greatest bull any of us will ever see. The last gold bull rose 23X. So it's not much of a stretch to look for a bull that gains 25-28X.<br /><br />Next is the Dow Gold ratio. I expect it to go to a minimum of 1:1 and maybe even slightly lower.<br /><br />The next 8 year cycle low in gold is due in 2016. I expect that to separate the second phase of the gold bull from the third bubble phase. <br /><br />Bubble phases last about a year to a year and a half. So once gold comes out of that 8 year cycle low and makes a new high that should initiate the bubble phase. At that point there should be about 1 year left. That gives us the 2017/18 target.<br /><br />And finally humans for what ever weird reason usually have to be taught a lesson three times before they learn. Greenspan made the first mistake and we got a very painful lesson in 2008/9. <br /><br />Bernanke is making the same mistake again. We will feel the effects of his mistake at the four year cycle low in 2012. <br /><br />Then if he's lucky enough to survive as the head of the Fed he will do it one more time. The effects of that will be felt as the world and global stock markets collapse down into the bottom of the secular bear at the next four year cycle low in 2016.<br /><br />Coincidentally that should mark the 8 year cycle low for gold.<br /><br />Moving to the dollar cycle the next 3 year cycle low should come this year. Then in 2014 and the third one in late 2017. That should drive the final blow-off top in the secular gold bull market.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-1910626115333691842011-01-17T20:28:57.744-08:002011-01-17T20:28:57.744-08:00At $5000 in gold, I will release some of the posit...At $5000 in gold, I will release some of the position in both gold and silver. <br /><br />Gary, if you're willing to stick around for the final phase blow off, you'll have served the thousands who will be your subs better than any publicly accessible subscription service that I've ever known (and I've known way too many).<br /><br />Thx for your openness.Slumdoghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03364132794238101607noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-5175951973165805002011-01-17T20:26:48.258-08:002011-01-17T20:26:48.258-08:00Gary: "Gary said...
I'm going to gues...Gary: "Gary said...<br /> I'm going to guess a final bull market top of $7000 for gold. If the silver:gold ratio reaches 30:1 that would work out to about $233 an oz. for silver."<br /><br />On the 10 yr gold chart, the french curve parabola extends out to 2017-2018, with parabolic price target of around $7000-$7500.<br /><br />This parabolic calculation has zip consideration of what you just posted. I've been watching the 5 and 10 yr charts for a long time. This parabolic ascent has been happening for the past 10 years. We're just entering the "elbow" area wherein price will rise faster as a percentage of itself each year. A year end price of $1600-1700, and a stretch at 1800 would be very reasonable. The return on an entry at 1300+ would on that range estimate be 20-30% for this year.<br /><br />Gary, how do you arrive at your price and time for the high?Slumdoghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03364132794238101607noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-39583526377976630952011-01-17T19:50:13.027-08:002011-01-17T19:50:13.027-08:00My best guess is a final top around 2017/18 based ...My best guess is a final top around 2017/18 based on the next 8 year cycle low due in 2016. <br /><br />My theory is that major cycle low will serve to separate the 2nd phase of the bull from the third bubble phase.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-40324915246716235752011-01-17T19:49:13.851-08:002011-01-17T19:49:13.851-08:00Options on GLD would tend to point to a close lowe...Options on GLD would tend to point to a close lower at 130 this friday (approx 1330 on gold).<br /><br />GDX, SLW and SLV don't seem to show a significant tendency.<br /><br />(I don't want to get into the option expiration debate of whether it matters or not. Believe what you want.)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-36028041401873594912011-01-17T19:46:02.159-08:002011-01-17T19:46:02.159-08:00yikes! any thoughts on a time when that may happen...yikes! any thoughts on a time when that may happen gary? Im gonna guess we will have a 1-1 gold/dow ratio. (?) not that matters muchjchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12306846975255898462noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-66215358394660328842011-01-17T19:42:44.510-08:002011-01-17T19:42:44.510-08:00$200 silver....mmmm.
From your lips to God's ...$200 silver....mmmm.<br /><br />From your lips to God's ear, Gary. : )catbirdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09495716778768745498noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-24917459784512279402011-01-17T18:35:42.725-08:002011-01-17T18:35:42.725-08:00I'm going to guess a final bull market top of ...I'm going to guess a final bull market top of $7000 for gold. If the silver:gold ratio reaches 30:1 that would work out to about $233 an oz. for silver.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-45809786629499258522011-01-17T18:30:36.397-08:002011-01-17T18:30:36.397-08:00TZ refers us to the ZeroHedge article by Peter (2 ...TZ refers us to the ZeroHedge article by Peter (2 posts up).<br /><br />I was actively dealing during the 81-82 silver parabola and crash. What I recollect was the public was melting gramma's silver and gold in stunning amounts. Every medical xray library was being scrubbed clean. And the platers were dumping sludge into the refiners, too. The outcome was refinery backups and a price collapse. And there was created a new pile of silver to be drawn on for the next now 30 years.<br /><br />Is that correct?<br /><br />We are here, now. Gramma's cupboards are thinly covered in silver; there's no mountain of xrays; platers have become serious managers of their PM piles; and the massive overhang has been consumed. It's gone. That wave and its backside parabolic crash are now long gone. Silver rose from $5-8 to $30.<br /><br />New production is streaming in from new mines and expanded copper mining. But that's nothing compared to the deluge that was busted loose from those now old and recently dead who sold off the silver fortunes squirreled during the late 1890's - 1910.<br /><br />Indian silver is not a factor. It was there; it is there; and it will be there.<br /><br />The question is at what rate silver will continue to be consumed, not just hoarded, but consumed. If the consumption rate exceeds the production and reclamation rates, then silver has no option but to rise to whatever price will balance supply/demand.<br /><br />And that price will be? Guesses?Slumdoghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03364132794238101607noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-35716409998111244142011-01-17T18:02:39.373-08:002011-01-17T18:02:39.373-08:00will this help gold to go up?
http://www.usdebtcl...will this help gold to go up?<br /><br />http://www.usdebtclock.org/oa92000https://www.blogger.com/profile/10424050777432171060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-47162817968136398232011-01-17T17:18:30.433-08:002011-01-17T17:18:30.433-08:00http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-strong...http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-strong-indications-gold-silver-shortagesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-13213250772968641122011-01-17T15:55:57.006-08:002011-01-17T15:55:57.006-08:00thanks, Gary. Your reply to my question about the...thanks, Gary. Your reply to my question about the possibility of a higher dollar does make sense.<br /><br />A lot is riding on the 3 year cycle low in the dollar!pimaCanyonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09477196225992507658noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-71261069110143654132011-01-17T15:20:45.915-08:002011-01-17T15:20:45.915-08:00David K. Isn't Ed Seykota great? And I love th...David K. Isn't Ed Seykota great? And I love that quote about professional traders going broke taking small profits. If you never take large profits you will never recover from your losses. Gary: the trick is to know when to do which. You will also go broke always shooting for large profits. Exiting is an art, IMO (or at least the way I trade).<br /><br />Avann: One way to do it is to sell on the way up. Sell some. Many people are all or nothing. That is when they sell they sell the whole load at once. Sell 25% after each 30% additional rally in the item. If you run out you've made 250%. Or, in the speculative ones, sell 1/2 100% up and you have then recovered all your original capital.DGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15668568316531084679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-46326479734342046312011-01-17T14:36:18.138-08:002011-01-17T14:36:18.138-08:00Hello Gary!
I read today that the tightness in go...Hello Gary!<br /><br />I read today that the tightness in gold is revealed by the growing spread between physical and paper gld.<br /><br />The silver market is very tight also. Maybe fundamental stuff like this maybe dont affect price as the intermediate correction will come anyway?<br /><br />Its very interesting because the problem in europa is still big and there is strong demand from Asia..But the price drops anyway..You sad that the drop in price doesnt have anything to do with the funtamental. Its just profit taking!<br /><br />The dollar bounced back today and the market ni Europe was weak. <br /><br />It feels like this rally in the stock market soon will drive in to a wall. <br /><br />Very nice blogg..:-)Moneymanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02498423091557236388noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-19468323890247085532011-01-17T13:53:03.761-08:002011-01-17T13:53:03.761-08:00I think it is sort of a symbiotic relationship. If...I think it is sort of a symbiotic relationship. If stocks correct money will flee into the dollar. But if the dollar drops liquidity looks for protection in assets.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-24760344416464446872011-01-17T13:42:28.826-08:002011-01-17T13:42:28.826-08:00Gary,
Let me get this straight. You said to PC ...Gary,<br /><br />Let me get this straight. You said to PC "Understand that a move down into an intermediate low by stocks should also force a dollar rally."<br /><br />I was under the impression that stocks reacted the dollar cycle.<br /><br />Your statement seems to indicate the dollar reacting to stocks...<br /><br />Is this a new development or are there certain circumstances where stocks force the action on the dollar?DDD999https://www.blogger.com/profile/00960102606524134446noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-45745251656035857582011-01-17T12:02:33.388-08:002011-01-17T12:02:33.388-08:00Avann,
I have cured the problem by suggesting inve...Avann,<br />I have cured the problem by suggesting investors set stops below each daily cycle low. Then I try to spot the top as best I can but I usually get caught at least once at an intermediate top because gold almost always throws me a curve ball that I just can't hit.<br /><br />The stop prevents us from riding the intermediate correction all the way down.<br /><br />The problem most people have is that after a large rally like we just saw they don't believe the stop can get hit so despite my best efforts to warn against it they take on way too much leverage.<br /><br />Then when that stop does get hit at the intermediate top they are shell shocked because they gave back a big chunk of their gains.<br /><br />If people will just listen to me about leverage every single one of us will come out of this with a fortune. Those that choose to ignore me will manage to lose money in a bull market.<br /><br />That's just the cold hard truth.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-31195310939712391332011-01-17T11:50:36.823-08:002011-01-17T11:50:36.823-08:00For me, it's got to be trusting the intermedia...For me, it's got to be trusting the intermediate cycle analysis. Getting a descent entry on the cycle bottom and not freaking out until the intermediate gets moving for the several months these things take to play out. I've blown several intermediates now and don't intend to keep doing this.Jayhawkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06180238054191226687noreply@blogger.com