tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post4297445016558608911..comments2023-10-29T02:04:09.499-07:00Comments on Smart Money Tracker: TRANSITION TO D-WAVEGaryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comBlogger1459125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-39817739475030828852011-07-01T08:03:20.387-07:002011-07-01T08:03:20.387-07:00said.....said.....GROSIRAN OBAT KUAThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13632328921036778409noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-26629654809887013862011-05-13T10:19:53.973-07:002011-05-13T10:19:53.973-07:00testtestAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-27932773519781068172011-05-13T10:07:51.314-07:002011-05-13T10:07:51.314-07:00I agree with Steven completely. He is not quarter...I agree with Steven completely. He is not quarterbacking. He makes very valid points about WHY he didn't exit in time. Largely due to missed call. On May 3 the daily report called for a dip and then a strong move higher. This call was wrong. His frustration is completely understandable, and I share it.<br /> I heard him take responsibility for his own actions, but I haven't heard you do the same.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-71282563210545368592011-05-13T10:06:09.556-07:002011-05-13T10:06:09.556-07:00I've said repeatedly I missed the call. I thou...I've said repeatedly I missed the call. I thought the dollar had one more leg down and the correction in silver would be a normal daily cycle correction.<br /><br />How many more times do you need me to repeat it?<br /><br />I was ready to convert to gold but got caught by the Monday gap down.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-68242423861692619442011-05-13T09:58:36.489-07:002011-05-13T09:58:36.489-07:00I agree with Steven completely...and i think he st...I agree with Steven completely...and i think he stated it well. He is not quarterbacking and he makes a strong case....The May 3 call was for a parabolic move up, and frankly that was just wrong. Everyone has to take responsibility for their own actions, including you Gary. The call was wrong. That's ok, it happens, BUT, it was a bad call. Onward, upward.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-73848623688966368482011-05-11T07:15:40.289-07:002011-05-11T07:15:40.289-07:00I am out of all positions having sold the last of ...I am out of all positions having sold the last of my DGP today (I was waiting for the first down day). I am having a solid if unspectacular year and am content to wait for clarity. I have learned not to try to swing at every pitch. Here's too the A wave. I will post other trades as I see them. Good luck everybody!DGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15668568316531084679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-56704161250391457822011-05-11T06:45:34.976-07:002011-05-11T06:45:34.976-07:00At the end of QE1 (4/1/10) gold rallied for 13% in...At the end of QE1 (4/1/10) gold rallied for 13% in 3 months, despite the dollar rallying 7% and the S&P falling 6%. Gold/Euro rallied 22% during that periodBlindwebhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14671034491715200986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-33404293768888437432011-05-11T06:38:43.326-07:002011-05-11T06:38:43.326-07:00Sillverhound. Thanks for writing. several things
...Sillverhound. Thanks for writing. several things<br /><br />Grandtsanding: you yourself said I write to help others. Waiting for a bigger audience during the week was just that. I feel that the issue I brought up was important for others to use the site successfully and that's why i wanted more people to see it. How is that grandstanding? What's the point of writing a useful post if no one reads it? Why do you assume i did that for my own sake after saying I try to be helpful?<br /><br />Trading: I do both short term and long term trading .I bought AGQ at 152 and sold it at 365. That took a while. The "overstating certainty" issue has nothing to do with trading I don't think.<br /><br />"Waiting to pounce" Again, where is the evidence for this? I posted in March, before the recent smackdown, something like, "Your overstated confidence is going to lead people over a cliff someday." I am now posting after the event. How is this "waiting to pounce?"<br /><br />Killing the goose: I have now written to Gary twice saying "I think this is important, but I do not want to pile on after the recent losses. You yourself must not be all that happy either, so if you prefer, let me know and I will let the issue rest. He wrote back to me saying: "I have an enormously thick skin. Go right ahead and post." I took that as a green light. Still i hesitated but decided that 1. He might actually modify his certainty (from ":No way in hell" kind of statements to "It seems very likely.") and 2. I really want other to remember all of this so they don't get crushed next time he is wrong.<br /><br />Any of my points above might be wrong, but I at least wanted you to know where I was coming from.DGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15668568316531084679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-33492817080642256172011-05-11T06:28:50.136-07:002011-05-11T06:28:50.136-07:00@Gary
Good post and wise words.
Thanks@Gary<br /><br />Good post and wise words.<br /><br />ThanksAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-11539503204092709212011-05-11T05:40:57.465-07:002011-05-11T05:40:57.465-07:00Alex-
I have that we already are in the 4th Inter...Alex-<br /><br />I have that we already are in the 4th Intermediate cycle of this C Wave.<br /><br />I show them starting in (roughly:<br />April 09<br />Feb 10 <br />July 10<br />Jan 11<br /><br />It seems to me that most of the discussion is on the resolution of this cycle, which is only in its 15th week. And so I assume that you are suggesting that we might add a 5th intermediate cycle to this C-Wave?T.J. Randhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02768609792761611327noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-64265588455828000492011-05-11T05:34:05.353-07:002011-05-11T05:34:05.353-07:00Here's a 10 year weekly chart on silver- it...Here's a 10 year weekly chart on silver- it's the one Doc/Jayhawk posted a week or 2 ago. <br /><br />Silver has basically retraced from the top to the bottom of it's bull market channel.<br /><br />http://i53.tinypic.com/2ngaav5.jpgT.J. Randhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02768609792761611327noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-65005861135962673302011-05-11T05:20:59.938-07:002011-05-11T05:20:59.938-07:00Big reversal on Gold overnight.
Same with Silver.
...Big reversal on Gold overnight.<br />Same with Silver.<br /><br />Bear flag breakdown on Copper that started last night.<br /><br />http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=HG&p=h1EricHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02832130458145600140noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-31981040494243202092011-05-11T05:12:50.851-07:002011-05-11T05:12:50.851-07:00A-Wave in the fall fits too, and crappy summer dol...A-Wave in the fall fits too, and crappy summer doldrums fit also in that case.<br /><br />I guess I just keep looking at the different possibilities because I cant tell if we're in the middle of a D-Wave start here, or a strong correction and resume upward run.<br /><br />I'll just keep up with your reports and look into the trading possibilities that I usually look for and we will know soon enough.<br />Time always reveals that stuff anyways.<br /><br />Thanks!ALEXhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04085157354083302362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-9661844799713757892011-05-11T05:11:19.527-07:002011-05-11T05:11:19.527-07:00Gary, very interesting take on the 8 year.
That wo...Gary, very interesting take on the 8 year.<br />That would be one hell of a play!Aaronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05437108237927001130noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-51250586399907397882011-05-11T05:07:59.233-07:002011-05-11T05:07:59.233-07:00A pull back to 36ish and I will add to my silver c...A pull back to 36ish and I will add to my silver calls.<br />Bring it!Aaronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05437108237927001130noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-31144817923819109372011-05-11T05:07:19.783-07:002011-05-11T05:07:19.783-07:00Bullion,
Take a look at the copper market.
It'...Bullion,<br /><br />Take a look at the copper market.<br />It's on a verge of taking out the yearly lows. It's pressuring the rest of the metals.EricHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02832130458145600140noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-67632118557955622942011-05-11T05:02:20.800-07:002011-05-11T05:02:20.800-07:00Any idea what just happened to the PMs (especially...Any idea what just happened to the PMs (especially silver)?OLD BLOGGER ACCOUNThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12394699107678425248noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-75297511084825081522011-05-11T05:02:00.404-07:002011-05-11T05:02:00.404-07:00I figured the C-wave top now and the A-wave in the...I figured the C-wave top now and the A-wave in the fall.<br /><br />I realize we don't have the normal parabolic move but this C-wave has done everything one could ask of it in terms of magnitude and duration. <br /><br />From the bottom of the last D-wave it's rallied over 100%. That's greater than any other C-wave and it's lasted considerably longer.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-4279079320335357532011-05-11T04:57:49.408-07:002011-05-11T04:57:49.408-07:00I dont either ,Gary, BUT if the dollar bounces the...I dont either ,Gary, BUT if the dollar bounces theres still more room to devalue it :) <br /><br />and Fall is typically a great run in Metals<br /><br />But I was looking at GOLD on a 3 yr wkly and the Dollar on a 3 yr wkly...and neither looks anything like I have been expecting to see the whole time you spoke of the 3 yr low ( I thought $68-$70) and Golds Parabolic top...I pictures closer to $2000 personally).ALEXhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04085157354083302362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-41382714826300624352011-05-11T04:55:38.922-07:002011-05-11T04:55:38.922-07:00Gary
Any idea what will happen to oil once the D...Gary <br /><br />Any idea what will happen to oil once the D wave in Gold is finished? <br /><br />Vvhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04709271184576938205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-51265812022136548952011-05-11T04:51:52.342-07:002011-05-11T04:51:52.342-07:00Alex,
That is the question isn't it. I was exp...Alex,<br />That is the question isn't it. I was expecting the dollar to move below the 08 low because of the left translated nature of this three year cycle. But it clearly appears to be putting in an intermediate low here. We do have a weekly swing now.<br /><br />In order to have another parabolic move we would need to see gold drop down into a mild correction and the dollar put in another weak intermediate cycle bounce.<br /><br />Then the dollar would roll over into the final three year cycle low later this fall and gold would move into it's typical parabolic final top.<br /><br />What are the odds of that happening you ask?<br /><br />I have no earthly idea. It would require a long 3 year dollar cycle and probably QE3 which I don't think is politically possible without some kind of deflationary event. With job growth in the 200,000 plus every month and inflation starting to pick up I just don't see how the Fed can possibly swing another round of QE.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-72853711842595254062011-05-11T04:51:41.093-07:002011-05-11T04:51:41.093-07:00silver looking ugly here...silver looking ugly here...Saltyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01006832351516267356noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-24871811652218516672011-05-11T04:48:30.033-07:002011-05-11T04:48:30.033-07:00I finished that wrong...another leg down would mak...I finished that wrong...another leg down would make it resemble the JULY sell off and JAN sell off's.ALEXhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04085157354083302362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-1056095653017067692011-05-11T04:44:46.140-07:002011-05-11T04:44:46.140-07:00GARY
BAck in the fall ( and I'm sure since th...GARY<br /><br />BAck in the fall ( and I'm sure since then) I remember you saying that other C-Waves had 2 IT cycles but you felt this one would have 3..and it has.<br /><br />IF because of the FED things seem stretched and morphed a bit this time...and it doesnt LOOK LIKE a 3 yr dollar low, and it doesnt LOOK LIKE the C-wave parabola gold top...<br /><br />Any chance this one COULD have 4 IT cycles? I ask because I dont know cycle possibilities, but when I look at the January sell off...it resembles this past one in April , (so far...unless we get another leg down soon). We could still get the Gold parabolic run in that case.<br /><br />ThanksALEXhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04085157354083302362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-10339776424192012942011-05-11T04:41:09.201-07:002011-05-11T04:41:09.201-07:00Arbiter's Technical Market Insight
MID-WEEK T...Arbiter's Technical Market Insight<br /><br />MID-WEEK TECHNICAL NOTES<br />Updated: Monday May 09, 2011 (05:00 PM EDT)<br />There will not be a weekly technical comment on Friday, May 6.<br /><br />The stock market has broken its short-term uptrend and it appears that the major indices are in the process of testing their recent breakout levels. Once this expected minor pullback ends, we see the stock market marching to new recovery highs. Commodities, especially precious metals, have gotten smacked hard of late while the U.S. Dollar Index may be tracing out a short-term bottom.<br /><br />We see the S&P 500 pulling back to its late-April breakout in the 1,340 region before another bullish leg to the upside. Our target area for the "500" is 1,400 to 1,430 sometime in late May or the first half of June. We believe this could be the final rally for stocks in this bull market, as we think we are in the fifth wave of a 5-wave advance. Many bull markets have been 5-wave advances. Once a top is in, we then see a major correction or potentially a bear market that lasts into 2012.<br /><br />We believe the sharp decline in commodities is just a shakeout that will end very shortly. We then see another spike in commodities as the U.S. Dollar Index heads down to at least test its 2008 bear market lows.<br /><br />The 10-year treasury yield appears to be tracing out a head-and-shoulders (H&S) top, as the end of the QE2 stimulus may be bullish for bonds. To complete the H&S top, yields must break below the 3.2% area. If that were to occur, we think it would open the door for a sub-3% yield on the 10-year treasury.<br /><br />Mark D. Arbeter, CMT - S&P MarketScopehead scratcherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04538631797389460806noreply@blogger.com