tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post4545335299006971635..comments2023-10-29T02:04:09.499-07:00Comments on Smart Money Tracker: New Premium siteGaryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comBlogger162125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-57413961699795604632011-01-04T06:55:02.365-08:002011-01-04T06:55:02.365-08:00Gary,
Gap filling.
Do you think the SPY may w...Gary,<br /><br /> Gap filling. <br /><br /> Do you think the SPY may want to be on its way to fill the approximate 1200 gap, SLV (hard to believe) the $26 gap (or is the only gap on SLV 28.5?)?<br /><br /> I don't know too much about gap filling but they seem to me to happen more often than not. Previously you pointed out months ago SLW filling a gap, which it did end up doing.Robert Thranehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05744959627802464363noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-74648795185421774812011-01-04T06:25:56.428-08:002011-01-04T06:25:56.428-08:00testtestStevenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04087690444538654869noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-80272674172494221022011-01-04T06:10:30.029-08:002011-01-04T06:10:30.029-08:00We *are* still in the triangle/congestion pattern ...We *are* still in the triangle/congestion pattern of gold (daily chart) with a flat top approx 1425 and an upsloping trendline near 1383 today. If that trendline breaks, then more selling will pile in and the INT low would be likely coming, I think.<br /><br />Of course, we are still in that triangle, so up and away possible too.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-79915966578352233532011-01-04T06:10:13.405-08:002011-01-04T06:10:13.405-08:00New postNew postGaryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-11110038319774396992011-01-04T06:07:48.880-08:002011-01-04T06:07:48.880-08:00At this point, it's still just a normal wiggle...At this point, it's still just a normal wiggle!Polyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01101104361466256156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-41207103581316794052011-01-04T06:03:25.316-08:002011-01-04T06:03:25.316-08:00Any way you looked at it, this week was going to b...Any way you looked at it, this week was going to be rough and tumble. Well...it's happening.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-2332829416807160702011-01-04T06:01:22.553-08:002011-01-04T06:01:22.553-08:00I'd be surprised if the HUI (if it falls) does...I'd be surprised if the HUI (if it falls) doesn't bounce off of 550 - got the 50 DMA and Bottom Bollinger band to fight through to go lower.T.J. Randhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02768609792761611327noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-71857642691902786242011-01-04T05:58:16.619-08:002011-01-04T05:58:16.619-08:00Lotta volume on the gold futures contract with thi...Lotta volume on the gold futures contract with this move down. There wasn't really much excessive volume on monday. THIS is the first indication of large numbers of positions being taken, exchanged, or blown out. As I mentioned before, yesterday didn't seem legit to me. The volume this morning is waking people up. (Note the volume on this drop could indicate a bottom, but I'm not going to bet that way yet.)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-19257081321871325672011-01-04T05:52:39.404-08:002011-01-04T05:52:39.404-08:00An alternate stop, but one that has a much greater...An alternate stop, but one that has a much greater chance of being whipsawed, would be to return to a core position if the HUI closes below 550.<br /><br />That has been support and if that gets broken we will have a pattern of lower highs and lower lows developing on miners.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-54514355150039578272011-01-04T05:50:30.888-08:002011-01-04T05:50:30.888-08:00Yup,
Got suckered into buying last week. have to ...Yup,<br /><br />Got suckered into buying last week. have to weather the drawdown now.bamsterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06504219664597827283noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-6720904040898752082011-01-04T05:48:09.112-08:002011-01-04T05:48:09.112-08:00Out my long metal futures (from last week) with a ...Out my long metal futures (from last week) with a small profit (much less than fri's close).<br /><br />We went below my stop levels and I think the odds of an intermediate low coming have now increased. Will let this play out a bit and regroup my thoughts after watching a bit.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-16410946683216950282011-01-03T21:34:38.052-08:002011-01-03T21:34:38.052-08:00Brian-
Yes, I leave that kind of impression on pe...Brian-<br /><br />Yes, I leave that kind of impression on people. They alway recall my lameness. :)<br /><br />That being said, I did go down almost 18% in my miners within a month, which as a newbie and very heavily invested was a bit of baptism by fire (first ever time I listened to Gary was that call)...It affected my mental approach and I was not able to fully get on after the intermediate cycle bottomed in the Summer. I don't intend to mess this year up, so if this call is not on the money, I will t-up the next one. <br /><br />I also have taken on a core and built it by dollar cost averaging and like Keys, will be Old Turkey for a long, long time...When governments can be trusted for some reason, when the DOW/Gold ratio hits 1/1.<br /><br />Funny...that correction last Winter would had us sitting on a low in SLW from 17 to like 15. OH THE HUMANITY!Jayhawkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06180238054191226687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-58025844466018645532011-01-03T21:31:37.959-08:002011-01-03T21:31:37.959-08:00Brian: I do invest and not trade bulls (around a c...Brian: I do invest and not trade bulls (around a core kind of like Gary does). I also "invest" in bears and hold shorts until there is a panic. I get out and/or switch directions when sentiment gets truly extreme. So I am long (sometimes for over a year), then out, then short. The market, to me, has been very odd the last two years, I suspect because of the Fed meddling. Overbought has not responded as it normally does. You also have to be careful shorting off a compression bottom as they get overbought and keep going. I would never consider "investing" in a bull when the whole universe is already bullish.DGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15668568316531084679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-80365636014016273742011-01-03T21:13:10.920-08:002011-01-03T21:13:10.920-08:00Interesting. Thanks Gary.
I don't have your ...Interesting. Thanks Gary.<br /><br />I don't have your experience in trading, but to me, it was the 28th pop up that signaled gold going higher. Since then I've been waiting for a backtest, which hasn't happened yet, and may not happen. Am wondering how to get on the bull. Buying here/now w/a stop sounds good to me - risk is only 3% to the last pivot low you spoke of.<br /><br />Thanks.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04903431719501161947noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-90551491030792517042011-01-03T21:07:23.941-08:002011-01-03T21:07:23.941-08:00Indeed, it takes a unique personality to be able t...Indeed, it takes a unique personality to be able to trade as Gary does, and stay objective in responding to the "variety" of comments asked.Driverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09669844990891398319noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-51747408655993822122011-01-03T21:02:42.691-08:002011-01-03T21:02:42.691-08:00Gary, You are one hell of a man. This whole thing ...Gary, You are one hell of a man. This whole thing of going from hero to goat and back again once or twice a year and keeping your cool amazes me! Truly super coaches are a special breed.Brianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10099880301231491806noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-89081720884437888202011-01-03T20:56:21.067-08:002011-01-03T20:56:21.067-08:00The big up day on the 27th should not have happene...The big up day on the 27th should not have happened if gold was going to drop down into an intermediate cycle low. That was the buy signal.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-66866111441229491162011-01-03T20:53:52.006-08:002011-01-03T20:53:52.006-08:00Gary, this is Bill here in Tokyo. You're up l...Gary, this is Bill here in Tokyo. You're up late! I like your logic about riding the bull w/stops. I myself don't like leverage, nor do I understand cycles, but I do get your point about riding the bull w/stops. <br /><br />My question is, what day did you get into GDXJ/SLW (or whatever), and what exactly was your buy signal? Was it something you saw in $GOLD, or $USD, or in GDXJ/SLW, or what? <br /><br />Thanks for sharing. It would help me a lot. I have problems with a trigger. Some days I think any purchase above the 50d EMA works good enough, for instance.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04903431719501161947noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-33360206088664036112011-01-03T20:53:23.043-08:002011-01-03T20:53:23.043-08:00Don't get me wrong. I am a gold bull and a sub...Don't get me wrong. I am a gold bull and a subscriber of your site. I found your analysis very helpful. That is why I ask the question. I am still long on gold miners. (although down from 95% to 20% core holding). But in order to protect my hard earned profit, I need to consider "what if" . After enduring two painful 50% correction in the past 2 years. I learnt to have some fear. No doubt I will sell down more if gold fall below $1360 as per your recommendation.Channey and Katoomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04491787290883933996noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-42798195763488816432011-01-03T20:41:42.940-08:002011-01-03T20:41:42.940-08:00Hey if you think the BPGDM is going to trump the d...Hey if you think the BPGDM is going to trump the dollar collapsing down into the three year cycle low then by all means step off the bull.<br /><br />I will just follow the plan :)Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-3349493825826936752011-01-03T20:38:50.883-08:002011-01-03T20:38:50.883-08:00Gary,
When $BPGDM was above 80 in Sep, Oct and Dec...Gary,<br />When $BPGDM was above 80 in Sep, Oct and Dec 09. They all corrected down below 70, and GDX had all been corrected by more than 15%. After it peaked it Dec 09, $BPGDM began a 4 months drop to 20 in Feb 10, and GDX had lost 35% from its peak.It then spent the next 4 months climbing back to 77 in May, and GDX recovered all of its losses. So the index has been quite reliable in its short history.Channey and Katoomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04491787290883933996noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-48107294382304749972011-01-03T20:36:03.528-08:002011-01-03T20:36:03.528-08:00It comes down to whether one believes the dollar w...It comes down to whether one believes the dollar will move down into a three year cycle low and if so then the weekly swing high is a sign of that beginning.<br /><br />Then of course there is the weekly swing low in gold. That should not be happening this late in a weekly cycle if gold was going to correct.<br /><br />Folks one can drive themselves crazy with what if scenarios... and more importantly prevent themselves from riding the bull. <br /><br />Just let your stops do their job and otherwise sit still and let the bull do what bulls do.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-44240361416906716832011-01-03T20:30:38.457-08:002011-01-03T20:30:38.457-08:00UNLESS the dollar somehow bottomed on that move do...UNLESS the dollar somehow bottomed on that move down on the 31st and we are now congesting on the way HIGHER. The read of people (gary,etc) seems to be otherwise however.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-46167230212321235472011-01-03T20:25:36.900-08:002011-01-03T20:25:36.900-08:00Dollar tonight (and last day or so) appears to be ...Dollar tonight (and last day or so) appears to be triangling/congesting in preparation for continuing lower. There isn't much space left and a break down would put a floor and resumed uptrend in the metals.<br /><br />It's looking likely to me. I'm still betting heavily long.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-66908981163169579372011-01-03T20:22:22.757-08:002011-01-03T20:22:22.757-08:00Sorry I meant 09. As the rally broke out in Sept. ...Sorry I meant 09. As the rally broke out in Sept. The BPGDM got overbought. Gold went through the normal daily cycle correction to work off overbought levels but as we all know it ended up rising to over $1200 even though the BPGDM first got overbought in Sept.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.com