tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post4568514742459791905..comments2023-10-29T02:04:09.499-07:00Comments on Smart Money Tracker: 3 WEEKS TO GOGaryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comBlogger183125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-20255995403768474742012-08-12T01:33:32.146-07:002012-08-12T01:33:32.146-07:00"That just isn't in the cards until the f..."That just isn't in the cards until the fundamentals change"<br /><br />Well I cant see that they have changed...too much debt, banks and sovereigns are bankrupt, economic activity is declining, real interest rates are negative and inflation is prevalent AND fiat currencies losing purchasing power. Perfect climate for precious metals. Excesses of last c-wave have been worked off already and the weak hands have moved on.<br /><br />The market is in denial and the forces of nature will push it where it is supposed to be. IMO the next up trend in Gold has already commenced. It doesnt need BSB to make that happen. <br />Besides CB pyschology is keeping the market in its place (sentiment). A major bankruptcy of a corporate/broking or clearing house/bank or a default will be the only triggers for any major correction in equities and that will be the trigger for any further QE.<br />It could very well be that the expectation of QE is having more of an impact that the actual printing should it eventuate.Liquid Motionhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15146453570713941699noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-56083505415786841172012-08-11T19:35:53.204-07:002012-08-11T19:35:53.204-07:00New postNew postGaryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-86208666585288891062012-08-11T17:04:28.568-07:002012-08-11T17:04:28.568-07:00saif,
you seem like you though I was defending AU...saif,<br /><br />you seem like you though I was defending AUD<br /><br />I was not<br /><br />I was merely trying to present one reason for the currently uptrending AUD<br /><br />I do not own AUD and was not defending it<br /><br />as fars all other things you said, you have your opinions and that's good<br /><br />the rest is price and trend, it's been up, and neither you nor I know how long it will take for it to turn for good<br /><br /><br />I also did not say that you had said bonds were shorts. I was merely comparing grandiose stands on secular trends and their terminations. The facts remain:<br /><br /><br />1. Trends are what trends are until they turn<br />2. you do not know what future may hold<br /><br /><br />BTW, I could care less what Peter schiff, or anybody for that matter may say, I just follow price of what I like, which at this moment is S&P and Gold<br /><br />Again, I was just trying to present a reason for the longer term of AUDPiazzihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08013122913500639807noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-78991898416556786792012-08-11T15:40:02.992-07:002012-08-11T15:40:02.992-07:00I do not know who u r confusing me with but I have...I do not know who u r confusing me with but I have never said anything about shorting Treasuries or bonds Piazzi.<br />As to the exact time frame of the AUD monetary policy, I am extrapolating the complete implosion of Australia, from its own housing bubble and that of China.<br />Australia's housing bubble is a magnitude larger than the US.<br />Look it up, look up house/rent, house to income ratios, versus US at its peak.<br />Here is a starting image,<br />http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/stories/2012/05/keenmay311.gif<br />Have fun with it.<br />If 0% rates and QE could not resuce US housing, what do u think RBA with get to before it is done?<br />Then you have china.<br />I have so much on that front, that u better go through this blog for all my past comments.<br />In either case all those including Peter Schiff who are hiding in AUD are going to have their asses handed to them in the next 30 months.saifhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02965588530630068995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-47171317283677751622012-08-11T14:05:04.369-07:002012-08-11T14:05:04.369-07:00saif,
how do you know jhat I know or don't kn...saif,<br /><br />how do you know jhat I know or don't know, you are being presumptuous<br /><br />Since you know so much about the monetary policy of Australian central bank, do teue and pll us when the rate cut starts and when QE starts, common, don't be vague with grand standings, tell us when? one week? one month? one year? one decade? one century?<br /><br /><br />without any specific time frame, what you say Australian Central bank will do in an uncertain future is useless<br />o have been saying binds are shorts for years, and the capital gains on Trasuries has trumped so many other asset classes<br /><br />So, the all-knowing super knowledgable saif, when? When does the Australian Central bank cut rates and when will they do the QE?<br /><br />as useless as those whPiazzihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08013122913500639807noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-14122005483053969562012-08-11T11:00:41.405-07:002012-08-11T11:00:41.405-07:00Saifs got it right on the money "Aussie wise&...Saifs got it right on the money "Aussie wise" looking out a couple years (not 100% sure of 0% rates - regardless - the ballon's gonna get popped here at some point). <br /><br />Otherwise...Im just trading what I see - and will ride out the next few days of this dollar cycle - long AUD for a couple more points.<br /><br />The entire "silver/paper/physical/deliverable thing" is further reason why I stick to currencies - at least I have "some" idea of whats actually going on.Stock Rockethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18431374762804135279noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-19640651263047524172012-08-11T09:56:15.472-07:002012-08-11T09:56:15.472-07:00Gold Lion,
It is rare that I agree with Gary, but ...Gold Lion,<br />It is rare that I agree with Gary, but I must say I think he is right.<br />Beyond that, let us assume that the price is manipulated. Do you think it can remain suppressed in case of a massive currency devaluation or hyperinflation?<br />If the answer is no then you should welcome this suppression as it lowers the average price of your purchase.<br />Hell, I would invite them to suppress a few more prices I pay on a day to day basis.<br />BTW, compare the commercial short position in Platinum<br />http://cftc.gov/dea/futures/deanymesf.htm<br />in relation to its supply and above ground stocks, to that of Silver and Gold.<br />You will find it is quite close to Silver and much more drastically "Manipulated" than Gold.<br />Yet have you ever heard of PATA?<br />Why not?saifhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02965588530630068995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-86374058529488636822012-08-11T09:34:40.438-07:002012-08-11T09:34:40.438-07:00gold,
Let me ask you this. Where in the report doe...gold,<br />Let me ask you this. Where in the report does it tell you how much physical silver each one of these entities holds? Every one of these so-called evil cartel players has long positions, probably in bullion, that match or are at least close to their hedged positions.<br /><br />Remember these are the largest and smartest traders in the world. Do you really believe that these people have been fighting a bull market for 12 years without getting the hint?<br /><br />There is also nothing in the COT reports that indicate who a particular trader is.<br /><br />By law traders are required to prove that they are using the futures market to hedge price fluctuation risk in order to be considered a commercial trader.<br /><br />As far as the COT report is concerned these hedgers could and probably are miners that are locking in price on some of their forward production.<br /><br />Like I said all derivative markets overwhelm their underlying assets. That's because most traders are speculating on price movement and have no intention of ever taking delivery. Silver is no different than any other commodity or asset in this regard.<br /><br />The simple fact is that when silver price becomes depressed commercial hedgers significantly reduce short positions, and when price becomes stretched far above the mean, commercial hedgers sell futures in order to lock in gains before the inevitable regression to the mean profit-taking event occurs.<br /><br />Almost all commercial traders employ regression to the mean trading strategies, as they are probably the most successful, and dependable strategies in the world.<br /><br />The simple fact is that conspiracy theories will in no way improve your odds of making money. They do one thing and one thing only. They give an analyst an excuse, and a scapegoat to blame when they make a wrong call.<br /><br />It's one of the oldest scams in the book.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-91195959553221800442012-08-11T09:15:35.559-07:002012-08-11T09:15:35.559-07:00Gary,
Tell me exactly is "conspiracy theory&q...Gary,<br />Tell me exactly is "conspiracy theory" about this report, or that it is acceptable for the eight largest traders in silver to be short 185% of the total commercial net short position. If you don't see it for what it is, then you just chose to deny facts.<br /><br />"In silver there was a small increase in the Commercial net short position...490 contracts to be exact. This position now stands at 21,852 contracts, or 109.3 million ounces of silver. The report also shows that the four largest traders are short 162.8 million ounces...and the '5 through 8' largest traders on the short side, are short an additional 39.1 million ounces.<br /><br />These eight traders are short 185% of the Commercial net short position and, when the market-neutral spread trades in the Non-Commercial category are removed, the four largest traders are short 34% of the entire Comex futures market in silver...and the '5 through 8' largest traders add another seven percentage points. So...the eight largest traders are short over 41% of the entire Comex futures market in silver."<br /><br />http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/edition/john-embry-precious-metals-markets-heatingLyonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00584700994069144017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-34548851268676711592012-08-11T09:09:19.207-07:002012-08-11T09:09:19.207-07:00Piazzi,
You have no idea how many billions are par...Piazzi,<br />You have no idea how many billions are parked into Aussie dollars because of the fact that they pay an interest.<br />When RBA cuts rates to 0% by mid 2014 and starts QE you will see AUD under 50 cents.saifhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02965588530630068995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-82750333872938028012012-08-11T06:24:37.253-07:002012-08-11T06:24:37.253-07:00"blog posts"
the interest Aussie dollar..."blog posts"<br /><br />the interest Aussie dollar pays is better than many corp dividends, that can always help put a floor under a drop or a pullback<br /><br />the only caveat is that interest rates may be dropped with much too much ease than dividendsPiazzihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08013122913500639807noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-30752129729756047662012-08-11T06:21:50.517-07:002012-08-11T06:21:50.517-07:00Both can be right about AUD - and both can make mo...Both can be right about AUD - and both can make money - again depending on ones time frame. <br /><br />All the more reason to just trade what you see, and let the price action show you the way.<br /><br />You guys want some real fun.....pull charts for both EUR /AUD and EUR/NZD! Now those are some trends!<br /><br />Meatgrinders in an hour to hour / day to day way (swings of 150/200 pips) but man....once on board - wow!Stock Rockethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18431374762804135279noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-82021280390854154102012-08-11T06:06:39.818-07:002012-08-11T06:06:39.818-07:00neither cycles nor any other tool can predict anyt...neither cycles nor any other tool can predict anything<br /><br />only people can predict<br /><br /><br />cycles are just tools that can help an analyst or observer assess probability of certain outcomes<br /><br /><br />they are tools and nothing more<br /><br />only the deluded knows the future for sure<br /><br /><br />all that said, some here are having good gains and little draw downs because we have been using cycles to assess probability and get into positions when some overbloated egos started using foul language and rude behavior just because they did not understand why market would bottom and rise despite all the econo-mumbo-jumbo that they had read <br /><br />amateur losers often shed all veneer of civility faster than a lizard in the sun<br /><br />as for playing the markets, it is just a matter of finding a trend in a chosen time frame and ride it. Cycles is one good tool for that<br /><br /><br />as long as playing the market is concerned, price is what we play. <br /><br />all the econo-mumbo-jumbo and europe-this-and-europe-that are better left for headline writers and those who earn living by selling speeches and appearances<br /><br /><br />Now, we are getting close to, at least, top of the daily cycle, so, we look at what we have and either trim for size or tighten stops or both while ignoring headlines and ignoring the overbloated egos -- trade what you see not what perma-creatures want you to seePiazzihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08013122913500639807noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-73767222984873112992012-08-11T05:27:12.374-07:002012-08-11T05:27:12.374-07:00Hey LM, you want to have a bet on the AUD?Hey LM, you want to have a bet on the AUD?saifhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02965588530630068995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-54228899893218175862012-08-11T03:44:21.258-07:002012-08-11T03:44:21.258-07:00Gary, you said "I expect that will be over so...Gary, you said "I expect that will be over sometime in 2017 or 18". Seems too soon to me. I would say 2030head scratcherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04538631797389460806noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-30339254432562350572012-08-11T00:23:27.112-07:002012-08-11T00:23:27.112-07:00Sure is nice to see that during my time away nothi...Sure is nice to see that during my time away nothing has changed here. I see that many of you are still stepping over dollar bills to try to pick up nickels. Aren’t you growing tired of playing the game when you don’t even know the rules? Well in the words of Barry the Baptist, it’s Need to Know time and we MAY just have received our tell this week from TPTB. And what pray tell would it be trying to say? If my antennae is as kosher as Christmas then it probably means a decline in the S&P to 1100 between August and November. Of course one never can tell for sure with these sneaky little buggers.<br /><br />This son of a bitch is throwing a two-hit shutout and he's shaking me off. You believe that? Charlie, here comes the deuce. And when you speak of me, speak well.KenShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06703694560791991061noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-37817729806675031512012-08-10T20:41:25.521-07:002012-08-10T20:41:25.521-07:00If anything gold is much higher than a normal bull...If anything gold is much higher than a normal bull market. If gold is up again this year it will be the 11th year in a row. I don't think any other bull market in history has done that.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-24447886311468599242012-08-10T20:38:33.304-07:002012-08-10T20:38:33.304-07:00Maybe you haven't noticed but derivatives in a...Maybe you haven't noticed but derivatives in all markets vastly overwhelm their underlying markets. Why?<br /><br />Because most traders don't take delivery and sell the derivative before expiration. Gold and silver are no different than the futures in the ES, NDX, Copper, Wheat, Cotton or any other commodity. <br /><br />And BTW I've always known there is short term manipulation. How can there not be? In order to take positions big funds have to move price below or above key technical levels to trigger stops so they have the necessary liquidity to enter or exit positions.<br /><br />I've noted many times in the past how major turning points almost always occur either right after a breakout or break down. <br /><br />The 2002 bottom, 2007 top and almost every D-wave bottom in gold has unfolded this way.<br /><br />Let me say this again. In a true bull market with true demand (not a housing bubble) it is impossible to manipulate price other than in the short term.<br /><br />This is why price controls didn't work in the 70's. By creating artificially low prices it just jacks up demand to the point where supply shortages occur. Once you have a shortage then it's impossible to keep price suppressed.<br /><br />Gold is no different than oil. If someone depresses price below true market levels then a shortage occurs and price has to rise.<br /><br />Like I said gold is exactly where it's supposed to be in Aug. 2012.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-37225370331992586912012-08-10T17:34:02.999-07:002012-08-10T17:34:02.999-07:00Agree with the "intervention/manipulation in ...Agree with the "intervention/manipulation in all markets" comment (u have changed ur tune of late bcos u were not always of this frame of mind/mentality...wasnt long ago that you were espousing the virtuous market mechanisms)...but<br />"gold is exactly where it should be on the 12th year of its bull market" is not readily accepted.<br /><br />The volume of shorts on gold (& AG)<br />has and continues to distort pricing levels abnormally. There is not enough ST physical to deliver on those paper shorts (in both metals)..thats fundamental and reality. Added to that you have ETF's and CB's leasing out Gold. Thats been true for some time. When the price moves violently against those shorts, they will be severely squeezed and forced to buy (at higher prices) to settle. Thats when you have real price discovery. That is coming sooner than most appreciate.<br />When you consider the selling pressure has been met (and convincingly I might add), it tells the true story.<br />There was a heavy consensus not long ago that Gold could have gone lower (sub 1523)....see how that has now dissipated...its a slow grinding process but the worm has turned. Bears are back in their caves (except for some idiots at FT). Just for the public to get involved...if you dont make your fortune in this market after all that has been layed in front of you...you will never make it. Blind Freddy can see this.<br /><br />Other bets to keep in your back pocket (but not for long):<br />Anyone short commodities are going to get smashed.(Energy, Grains, Feedstock, PM's, Base metals) <br />UST are bursting...thats a trap to replicate what happened in the 70's.<br />Anyone shorting the AUD..is kidding themselves. Interest rate differentials there are drawing in funds from all across EURO,US,ASIA. If you thought China was about to implode, why would you enter the currency at a supposed top ? After all the AUD is a proxy for China. Not commonsense. You are on the wrong side of the trade...and trend. Being a contrarian will be very unkind to you.Liquid Motionhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15146453570713941699noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-54449094742931473172012-08-10T15:38:34.291-07:002012-08-10T15:38:34.291-07:00If thats your trade - best suggestion is just hit ...If thats your trade - best suggestion is just hit AUD/USD for at least 100% larger move (as illustrated in even the last uptrend in both pairs since May - 800 plus pips vs 400 - and cheaper reserve requirements on aud/usd).<br /><br />The specifics of "energy vs base metals" will not manifest as obviously as "risk vs safe haven" in pairing against USD as opposed to a commod currency such as CAD.<br /><br />Profits made therein long and away make up for the interst rate differentials (neg roll over)....if this helps.<br /><br />Have a good weekend guys.Stock Rockethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18431374762804135279noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-56860425107290719412012-08-10T15:03:13.299-07:002012-08-10T15:03:13.299-07:00AUD/CAD is a bet on Energy outperforming base meta...AUD/CAD is a bet on Energy outperforming base metals and US outperforming China.<br />Currencies also have costs, often in the form of Interest rate differentials.<br />LEAPS when implied volatility is low can be really worth it.<br />But you really have to buy when IV is very low.<br />Like I have been in the last few weeks as VIX is hitting lows.saifhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02965588530630068995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-37961643683208548962012-08-10T14:59:38.177-07:002012-08-10T14:59:38.177-07:00Huh...interesting...and thank you both for your ta...Huh...interesting...and thank you both for your take on it.<br /><br />For me.....the decay/timing in the options markets GROSSLY OUTWAYS risks in currencies (as well....playing one commod currency against another AUD/CAD makes little sense and offers little in the way of possible gains - as opposed to "commod vs safe haven")<br /><br />And as far as "interventions" go.....first and foremost DONT TRADE CHF! (..well I do.....but small contracts in obvious scenarios.ie....dollar down....hmmm.. short USD/CHF.<br /><br />In any case.....I guess whatever asset class one chooses....but.....I most certainly could not sit idle through months n months of flat /sideways etc....in GOLD....with opportunities abound currency wise.<br /><br />Thanks guys.....have atter.Stock Rockethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18431374762804135279noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-65474277773137290422012-08-10T14:53:25.028-07:002012-08-10T14:53:25.028-07:00Gold Lion,
All markets get manipulated in the shor...Gold Lion,<br />All markets get manipulated in the short term. I don't think any sane person would disagree with that statement.<br /><br />However, in a true bull market, with true demand, it is impossible to manipulate the market in the median or long-term.<br /><br />So contrary to what the conspiracy theorists think, gold is exactly where it should be on the 12th year of its bull market.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-77135053513088539632012-08-10T14:51:35.896-07:002012-08-10T14:51:35.896-07:00We have a deal.We have a deal.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-74101955269370666182012-08-10T14:39:07.906-07:002012-08-10T14:39:07.906-07:00Since giving away a subcription to someone who is ...Since giving away a subcription to someone who is not going to get on anyway, has no cost for you I suggest we even the odds a bit.<br />I will subscribe to one month of your service if wrong, if right you give me a year's worth. And I will throw in 2 burritos, regardless of who is right or wrong when the bet is decided.<br />Work for you?saifhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02965588530630068995noreply@blogger.com