tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post4756563487686885042..comments2023-10-29T02:04:09.499-07:00Comments on Smart Money Tracker: ON THE VERGE OF AN INFLATIONARY SURGEGaryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comBlogger98125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-44062459063460035092010-05-05T07:00:34.470-07:002010-05-05T07:00:34.470-07:001. So we agree-- Housing prices falling or not go...1. So we agree-- Housing prices falling or not going up does not mean there is not inflation-- Good.<br /><br />2. You are talking about credit tightening after they have been loosened like nothing ever before. This is equivalent to saying you were given 100 dollars and later someone took away 20 and therefore there is tightening. Nonsense.<br /><br />3. yes I have studied economics-- <br />The reason inflation is not worse is because jobs have not come back in masse and labor prices are not increasing. As early as the 70's we had inflation without increasing jobs or labor prices going up. Called Stagflation.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10940888740944629300noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-79964738813636555932010-05-04T20:03:44.439-07:002010-05-04T20:03:44.439-07:00"1. Housing costs are not going up-- might be..."1. Housing costs are not going up-- might be due to the excessiveness that was seen and current liquidity is not flowing to that sector!"<br /><br />That's what I said. The fall in housing prices has more than made up (for most people) for price increases in things like restaurant meals.<br /><br />"2. Liquidity is not being withdrawn-- What do you call the QE and stimulus programs. Massive liquidity was pumped in the system--- massive. Look at our Debt levels."<br /><br />It most certainly is. Many countries (Australia, Brazil, Israel) have already started to raise rates. The Fed finished their purchase program a while ago, and their balance sheet has started to (slowly) shrink. They are preparing for asset sales soon. The fiscal "stimulus" has also passed its peak (I wouldn't expect any more unemployment benefit extensions), and the cost of short term borrowing has crept up noticeably over the past several weeks. <br /><br />"3. You can have sustained inflation without risinf labor prices. it is frequently uncommon but the inflation is currently going to be caused by the devaluing of our dollar. If your dollar is worth less then your goods are going to cost more unless goods prices are lowered and that is not happening. Dollar will continue to fall after euro is done with its problems. I agree with Gary that dollar strength right now is actually euro weakness."<br /><br />Have you ever studied even basic economics? Without more money (higher wages) to buy things, people will buy less (or substitute other goods). Foreign exporters will have to accept lower profit margins and won't be able to pass on all cost increases as the dollar weakens (against Asian currencies).<br /><br />Name one time in history that there has been a BROAD, SUSTAINED inflation without rising wages. You can't. It has never happened.<br /><br />The euro is on its way back to parity over the next two years (it is still overvalued - fair value is about 1.15). I am long dollars, and expect to stay that way for the next eighteen to twenty-four months. The euro has enjoyed a "only alternative to the dollar" premium that is rapidly disappearing.<br /><br />Dollar strength is euro AND yen AND pound weakness. The U.S. is going to have (by far) the strongest economy (among the advanced nations) over the rest of the year).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-16514363832635213972010-05-04T16:46:50.630-07:002010-05-04T16:46:50.630-07:00Anonymous--
Great question-- I will see what I can...Anonymous--<br />Great question-- I will see what I can do. My vague question was a weak attempt at determining dollar demand as somewhat weak. (ie--not many would want to hold in my unscientific poll) I sure do not know why anyone would want to hold unless you needed it as a hedge for business or lopsided trade?<br />Maybe someone on the blog has more tangible studies.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10940888740944629300noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-67844856106861943922010-05-04T16:41:42.964-07:002010-05-04T16:41:42.964-07:00What I want is irrelevant. I'm just an idiot s...What I want is irrelevant. I'm just an idiot swimming in a sea of disconnected tidbits of brilliance trying to make sense of it all. If the dollar could hurry up and tank it would certainly help my cause. Your comment simply got me thinking about supply and demand of the dollar. We have a huge supply. That's a given. What metrics do we have available to measure the demand? How do we know when the supply exceeds (or dwarfs) the demand?<br />AlexAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-54059501336154732202010-05-04T16:27:11.301-07:002010-05-04T16:27:11.301-07:00Anonymous-
Do you want to hold the dollar longer t...Anonymous-<br />Do you want to hold the dollar longer term?Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10940888740944629300noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-38373223495980127152010-05-04T16:25:54.258-07:002010-05-04T16:25:54.258-07:00Gert,
No way would I short a bull market. It doesn...Gert,<br />No way would I short a bull market. It doesn't make any sense to come on and tell us in the middle of a correction that you are short. Tell us how many false starts it took to catch the move. How much did you lose before you managed to score 3.8%?<br /><br />That is all the S&P is down and that is if you managed to sell the exact top. <br /><br />One of the most important lessons I learned was to never short a bull market. The meager returns usually don't cover all the false starts and if you mistime an entry the bull can do something unexpected and destroy your account.<br /><br />If you think the market is going to go down just go to cash. <br /><br />Folks if you are going to be an investor you have to ignore these short term wiggles. Let the day traders get all up in a lather about a .8% drop in mining stocks. Remember this is a bull market and those that can hold through the noise will reach the end of the bull rich.<br /><br />Those that have to trade every wiggle will probably end up with little or nothing.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-90691558934843556272010-05-04T16:04:40.431-07:002010-05-04T16:04:40.431-07:00So Von Mises says that inflation is when supply is...So Von Mises says that inflation is when supply is greater than demand for a currency. We've beaten a dead horse here that the supply has been pumped to the moon. How de we determine if the demand for the US dollar has been satisfied? Or more importantly, over satisfied?<br />AlexAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-5374057445008539912010-05-04T15:36:35.764-07:002010-05-04T15:36:35.764-07:00As to inflation--
I guess it depends if you are a ...As to inflation--<br />I guess it depends if you are a believer in the Austrian School of Economics or not.<br /><br />Then, following the common idea of inflation, Mises (1912, [1981], p.<br />272) tries to develop a more precise definition of inflation:<br />In theoretical investigation there is only one meaning that can rationally be<br />attached to the expression Inflation: an increase in the quantity of money<br />(in the broader sense of the term, so as to include fiduciary media as<br />well), that is not offset by a corresponding increase in the need for money (again<br />in the broader sense of the term), so that a fall in the objective<br />exchange-value of money must occur. Again, Deflation (or<br />Restriction, or Contraction) signifies: a diminution of the quantity of<br />money (in the broader sense) which is not offset by a corresponding<br />diminution of the demand for money (in the broader sense), so that an<br />increase in the objective exchange-value of money must occur.<br /><br />Ludwig von MisesDanielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10940888740944629300noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-91669209452604213812010-05-04T15:11:52.998-07:002010-05-04T15:11:52.998-07:00Has anyone here younger that 59 1/2 decided to liq...Has anyone here younger that 59 1/2 decided to liquidate your retirement funds (IRAs, 401k's). I think the government is going to force these funds into government securities in the coming years. Now maybe the last time to get out. Take the 10% hit and pay the taxes on traditional ira's & 401k's...I'm seriously considering this. ZeroHedge has run some stuff on this as well as Catherine Austin Fits, Denniger, etc.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-42910334342436480452010-05-04T15:01:03.412-07:002010-05-04T15:01:03.412-07:00People need to understand that Gary and the other ...People need to understand that Gary and the other Inflation Now! bloggers have a private language. We all define inflation as prices and wages going up broadly. They define it as an increased money supply whether costs go up or not. They then find the areas with rising prices and say, "See!" Housing is down, wages are weak, hotels rates are down, rents are down, etc., but if you just look at what is up, lo and behold...Inflation! For the rest of us, we won't likely see inflation until housing bottoms, capacity utilization rises, wages/unemployment stabilize, etc. Look at what happened to silver and oil today. They got killed. Excess money is being funneled into some areas, but "inflation" is not here and won't be for a while yet.<br /><br />DGDGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15668568316531084679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-41207189506243315222010-05-04T14:42:54.242-07:002010-05-04T14:42:54.242-07:00Ananymous--
1. Housing costs are not going up-- mi...Ananymous--<br />1. Housing costs are not going up-- might be due to the excessiveness that was seen and current liquidity is not flowing to that sector!<br /><br />2. Liquidity is not being withdrawn-- What do you call the QE and stimulus programs. Massive liquidity was pumped in the system--- massive. Look at our Debt levels.<br /><br />3. You can have sustained inflation without risinf labor prices. it is frequently uncommon but the inflation is currently going to be caused by the devaluing of our dollar. If your dollar is worth less then your goods are going to cost more unless goods prices are lowered and that is not happening. Dollar will continue to fall after euro is done with its problems. I agree with Gary that dollar strength right now is actually euro weakness.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10940888740944629300noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-41874332477416886512010-05-04T14:18:14.190-07:002010-05-04T14:18:14.190-07:00More thoughts on inflation (keep in mind there are...More thoughts on inflation (keep in mind there are a lot of anonymous posters disagreeing with you :) ).<br /><br />1. Housing costs make up a far bigger percentage of spending than restaurants for most people, and those are still down quite a bit from their highs.<br /><br />2. Liquidity is being withdrawn as economies recover (not to say governments won't put it back at some point in the future), which is NOT supportive of commodity prices.<br /><br />3. You can not have any type of sustained inflation (one time price spikes don't count - oil is not going up another 150 percent from here over the next fifteen months) without rapidly rising wages, and those are nowhere to be seen.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-82939980172043988062010-05-04T14:15:14.345-07:002010-05-04T14:15:14.345-07:00"Copper is also not down on the year."
..."Copper is also not down on the year."<br /><br />You are lying again.<br /><br />Front month copper on the CME closed at 3.3275 on December 31, 2009. The last trade today was at 3.1540 (it was down for the year even before today).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-49484875736345892712010-05-04T13:55:28.853-07:002010-05-04T13:55:28.853-07:00Hot diggity! Sabina Gold&Silver up 20%+ today...Hot diggity! Sabina Gold&Silver up 20%+ today!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-14805537165430177142010-05-04T13:47:07.331-07:002010-05-04T13:47:07.331-07:00Gold down 1% in general slaughter. I'll gladl...Gold down 1% in general slaughter. I'll gladly take it, and follow the advice I shared with Jay earlier....looking to ADD more DGP after a couple days decline, which I'd welcome.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-37698811585678237522010-05-04T12:57:33.138-07:002010-05-04T12:57:33.138-07:00Silver miners took a beating, but the golds did we...Silver miners took a beating, but the golds did well today. GDX looks good, XAU and HUI looking decent, some of the bigger gold miners like ABX, GG, GOLD held up very well.Jayhawkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06180238054191226687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-36197674442363221192010-05-04T12:29:10.974-07:002010-05-04T12:29:10.974-07:00From IACP:
Until the liquidity situation is resolv...From IACP:<br />Until the liquidity situation is resolved we would also be cautious with gold as it has posted a nasty reversal today on the last resistance 1,185/1,187 (c=a since the lows) we had highlighted before the run towards new highs. Once default fears are batted away with the liquidity bat then not doubt the Gold bullish trend will return.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-24514091482431838752010-05-04T12:26:24.400-07:002010-05-04T12:26:24.400-07:00Deflation is coming!Deflation is coming!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-56761121925600720762010-05-04T11:41:07.004-07:002010-05-04T11:41:07.004-07:00It looks as though we slide back towards the 1100 ...It looks as though we slide back towards the 1100 area from here...I know this is not what yall want to hear but it is...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-25405479482656701752010-05-04T11:30:44.458-07:002010-05-04T11:30:44.458-07:00Look fellows the dx is going alot higher and the e...Look fellows the dx is going alot higher and the euro will touch 126 short term...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-5821383849699256612010-05-04T11:29:17.110-07:002010-05-04T11:29:17.110-07:00One should sell some longs or get short closing at...One should sell some longs or get short closing at these levels...not a good close at all!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-65727174324490993212010-05-04T11:16:39.091-07:002010-05-04T11:16:39.091-07:00Yeah, not at my ESignal now, but I think the 61.8 ...Yeah, not at my ESignal now, but I think the 61.8 was around 83.5 +/-Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-38232671472219552992010-05-04T10:44:03.086-07:002010-05-04T10:44:03.086-07:00Are you showing 83.82 as that Fib line?
I'm w...Are you showing 83.82 as that Fib line?<br /><br />I'm watching the upper part of this channel which would be around 84.90's. <br /><br />DOC pointed out a pattern a few week back on the DX and said if it plays out we will hit 85<br /><br /><br /><a href="http://www.thedocument.com/stock_market_blog/2010/20100420_dollar_index_pattern.cfm" rel="nofollow">DX</a><br /><br />DX channel<br /><br /><a href="http://www.screencast.com/users/Jayhawk1991/folders/Jing/media/a4b99488-32ed-4a27-a7ae-b26b496d267f" rel="nofollow">DX Channel</a>Jayhawkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06180238054191226687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-66107545211735118632010-05-04T10:20:53.493-07:002010-05-04T10:20:53.493-07:00Anyone think the 61.8 fibonacci retracement on the...Anyone think the 61.8 fibonacci retracement on the DX will be resistance to it going much higher?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-12831768051167613402010-05-04T10:16:08.420-07:002010-05-04T10:16:08.420-07:00Blogger Natanarchist said...
Curious...we ha...Blogger Natanarchist said...<br /><br /> Curious...we have a pullback in the PM's..who is buying today? Lots of folks saying they have been waiting for this so are you pulling the trigger today?..if not why not? How about the stock indexes anybody buying right now..today?<br /><br /> May 4, 2010 10:05 AM<br /><br /><br />Hi N-<br /><br />I like Doc's strategy of waiting for an overall market swing low on SPX. Target zone is around the 65DMA or 1150. I know these entries can't be timed perfectly, but some signs of a bottoming of the selling (candlesticks, macd flattening out, RSI oversold readings, etc). RSI should be flashing oversold in a few days.Jayhawkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06180238054191226687noreply@blogger.com