tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post5393188050828499976..comments2023-10-29T02:04:09.499-07:00Comments on Smart Money Tracker: HISTORIC BREAKOUT TO NEW ALL-TIME HIGHSGaryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comBlogger162125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-29115870322067223602010-10-08T06:45:03.083-07:002010-10-08T06:45:03.083-07:00SB,
You must have had dinner last night with Bill...SB,<br /><br />You must have had dinner last night with Bill right?<br /><br />http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aULjL5cs.858&pos=2Bull Riderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07317891819714093791noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-40112839476930799322010-10-08T06:40:46.044-07:002010-10-08T06:40:46.044-07:00I'm trying to be patient, but itchin to git me...I'm trying to be patient, but itchin to git me some more gold with the new stacks of paper I printed last night!Shalom Bernankehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16590351870092138098noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-63432030099794036702010-10-08T06:38:28.292-07:002010-10-08T06:38:28.292-07:00Gary,
The voice of reason, yet so hard to follow :...Gary,<br />The voice of reason, yet so hard to follow :)<br />Thanks!aaronpalanghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02902362323725298633noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-84726054938644257592010-10-08T06:14:47.422-07:002010-10-08T06:14:47.422-07:00DG,
Nice thoughts. If one is a trader, the worst ...DG,<br /><br />Nice thoughts. If one is a trader, the worst thing they can do is pretend to be an old turkey holder...pretend that they have converted. This is the worst thing for your account...you trade out when you should be holding. I am sure that there are some traders, good enough, and with enough disciple to trade gold profitably.....but the question then becomes can they trade better than a buy and hold, or generate the same results with less risk. If one can great and DG you seem to be one of those few....and if I am wrong, meaning most traders can trade gold with success...great. Mostly it comes down to making money (defined as increasing purchasing power)....I know I can’t trade gold, and I won’t bother to try. I get stressed out when I don’t have my positions in for gold…the fundamental story is so strong here, that I don’t want to chase once the general public catches on. <br /><br />As per being wrong about the big picture, that is the Achilles heel, one that I look at fundamentally on an ongoing basis. Once I believe that is dead, even if premature, I am out of gold....despite price action. The example of another feather in the hat for gold was the jobs report today….horrible. Tie that in with what the Fed had already said, and QE2 becomes more likely….etc….<br /><br />These are my views, and the way I run the race….of course others do it differently, and if it works fantastic.Keyshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01980184575351995254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-38770861097093590702010-10-08T05:57:51.151-07:002010-10-08T05:57:51.151-07:00Aaron,
Be patient. The open is all about emotions....Aaron,<br />Be patient. The open is all about emotions. Wait to see how we close once cooler heads make their decision. If the dollar continues down then I would look for it to find support at 76.50. We will get some kind of bounce out of the dollar and so far we haven't seen it.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-70909261726476063492010-10-08T05:48:57.799-07:002010-10-08T05:48:57.799-07:00Keys and others: I have to disagree (it's a bl...Keys and others: I have to disagree (it's a blog after all!) I do believe you can trade gold or anything else for that matter. While it is absolutely true that vast majority of people are not suited to trading, it is that emotion that has people lose, not gold itself. As one example, you have to be able to sell it at $1200 and buy it back with both hands at $1250, if that's what seems right, and people absolutely hate doing that. Further, you may have too do that three times before getting right and then watching gold go to $1500. If I remember correctly, one of the traders in Market Wizards who said "You can throw a dart at the WSJ to pick something, and then decide whether you want me to be long or short it, and I'll still make money consistently if you do that over and over." Impressive. It's all about tactics and risk management. I think Gary's way is easier by far, but I am always nervous that the 40% drawdown turns into 80% because the bull ended and no one knew it (some new gov't regulation during a panic?) Without protecting oneself from drawdowns you only need to be wrong once to severely damage your account. There are lots of ways to play this game, and many more ways to blow it, but I believe you have to know your nature and act accordingly. I for one would never sit through a 40% drawdown. I'd rather make less money per year, have consistent positive returns, and not worry about an "Oh my God" year. Great points and debate, though.DGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15668568316531084679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-41801479369203127442010-10-08T05:47:40.438-07:002010-10-08T05:47:40.438-07:00Jobs report out....Really bad...fundamental story ...Jobs report out....Really bad...fundamental story for gold is again better. Jobs down by 95,000….private sector up by 64,000. We need to add 100-150 thousand jobs each month just to keep up with the labor force. Real story was the number of part-time workers that want full-time work but can’t get it…this rose by 612,000. Wow! <br /><br />http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm<br /><br />Builds a better story for QE2...Keyshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01980184575351995254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-17208214595815363622010-10-08T05:21:41.011-07:002010-10-08T05:21:41.011-07:00Gary, we dipped below yesterday's low, so the ...Gary, we dipped below yesterday's low, so the question is how high does gold have to go for this to be the bottom?aaronpalanghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02902362323725298633noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-24650985355944903572010-10-07T22:12:08.502-07:002010-10-07T22:12:08.502-07:00Mitch and Keys,
I find your posts useful. It help...Mitch and Keys,<br /><br />I find your posts useful. It helps with the key reasons why I am on this blog - to ride the gold bull without being thrown off. Learning to take drawdowns etc. Really anti-thetical to the usual trading mentality (e.g. looking at oscillators for buy or sell signals)<br />The other thing that was useful also was the discussion on spotting intermediate cycle tops and bottoms.<br />Hope to see more of this :-)<br /><br />Oh and Keys, gobble gobble to you too :-)Bull Riderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07317891819714093791noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-79159035067904567532010-10-07T22:00:18.294-07:002010-10-07T22:00:18.294-07:00Keys,
Interesting take on positioning in gold. I...Keys,<br /><br />Interesting take on positioning in gold. I have to say that I think your assessment applies to me. I am Old Turkey during an uptrend, but if I can avoid a 30 to 40% downturn, I would like to. However, given that I'm not sure that the downturn will materialize when it is supposed to, I will keep my minimal allotment in PMs...thus far, it has been appx 20% of my funds. <br /><br />Gary has tuaght me some things about the nature of cycles, and with the help of his insights I've been able to guage tops and bottoms of intermediate cycles with pretty decent accuracy. I recognize that won streaks end, and that's why I won't sell my position entirely. <br /><br />Anyway, currently at appx 80% allocation in SLV, GDX, GDXJ, SIL and SLW. I'll be looking for a swing high on the dollar's next rally to add to my position in SIL (currently smallest). <br /><br />I do have strong hand status as I've been in since Gold broke the triangle at 850ish, and adding at intermediate lows since. <br /><br />Mitchfubsy_cooterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03468090772088504646noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-39563978756714867892010-10-07T18:59:14.176-07:002010-10-07T18:59:14.176-07:00Anyways, I am a little(well..alot) of an extremist...Anyways, I am a little(well..alot) of an extremist so I don't take offence to when my blogs don't fit! Please feel free to delete whenever I don’t make sense. Like now. Lol...Keep up the great work Gary!Keyshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01980184575351995254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-8506202866544593712010-10-07T18:53:33.220-07:002010-10-07T18:53:33.220-07:00Keys,
I don't know why blogger does that from ...Keys,<br />I don't know why blogger does that from time to time. Here is your post.<br /><br />Pain is pain. Anybody here in Feb thought a D-wave was on us. And if what we went through wasn't a D-wave and just a period of consolidating, we need to really believe in the big picture, which is the only real picture. After that comes Gary's ABCD, and other tools....why...tools break-down and throw us off. One needs to be able to ride a D-wave without trading out. That may mean a massive 40% drawdown.<br /><br />On needs to commit to the big picture, and if an obvious trading opportunity comes it is a bonus. Gary mentions that he would like to exit before a d-wave, but if you get stuck in one you have to be able to suffer through the drawdown.<br /><br />Gold has got to be the worst investment out there. The best person in the world is probably the guy that buys gold and never looks at the price, doesn't care, and one day sees a "we buy gold for $5000" sign. Then that guy runs home and sells his gold coin, never understanding the stock market, never understanding cycles, not caring about mouse clicking, etc<br /><br />In this way Gold the ironic beast, a bastard of an investment, one I hate, and one that will drive successful traders absolutely nuts, to be smart enough to know how stocks and the economy works, but stupid enough to simply buy gold, plug your ears and sing songs while the beast bucks away.<br /><br />This beast is completely opposite of what one would want in an investment. We want gold to struggle higher, not explode higher. We want nobody to know about gold, and for people not to run into it. We want gold to crash at times. We want to hold during these crashes if need be. Stupidity is rewarded for buy and holders in gold, and the smart guys lose their shirts.<br /><br />I firmly believe you can’t trade gold. If an opportunity plops on your lap, great, but that is secondary. If the big picture says gold must go higher, then price action is irrelevant. I am only commenting like this, because I have a feeling that many on this blog, from what I have read, are old turkey as long as gold goes up, but a mere 20% drop in pm’s and then they become traders. We all need to believe firmly in the big picture, one I test on-going, and everything is screaming a better and better case for gold.<br /><br />Thanks Gary for being a great coach, btw. When I feel my sinful ways coming back, some of you big picture comments really help.<br /><br />Gobble Gobble.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-38467428897335722932010-10-07T18:51:23.238-07:002010-10-07T18:51:23.238-07:00Okay not sure why my comment was deleted, but okay...Okay not sure why my comment was deleted, but okay...no need for me to talk further then, long-winded as I am. <br /><br />Happy trading!Keyshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01980184575351995254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-37666863663582775682010-10-07T18:47:28.727-07:002010-10-07T18:47:28.727-07:00Wes,
That's a tough call without the benefit o...Wes,<br />That's a tough call without the benefit of hindsight but I would say it will probably be a toss up between AGQ, GDXJ and SIL. <br /><br />You can probably toss a coin and have about as good a chance of catching the biggest mover as trying to anaylze it. They should all be pretty close so even if you don't guess right it won't make that much difference.<br /><br />For what it's worth AGQ has no company specific risk.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-28532064202160839702010-10-07T18:37:22.416-07:002010-10-07T18:37:22.416-07:00Gary,
I'm not a gold bug and have no core pos...Gary,<br /><br />I'm not a gold bug and have no core position, nor do I want one. But I think your calls have been spectacular, and I'd like to place a wager on this next leg.<br /><br />Where would I get the most pop? I'm not particularly concerned about losing, and AGQ looks good to me.<br /><br />Is there a better choice ?Weshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17674078449364685370noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-1530657174037820012010-10-07T18:25:49.130-07:002010-10-07T18:25:49.130-07:00I've found that the news will mysteriously ali...I've found that the news will mysteriously align with the cycles most of the time or the marekt will find some way to interpret it so it fits the cycles.<br /><br />It's getting close to the time when the market needs to start moving down into a daily cycle low and the dollar needs to bounce out of it's now due cycle low.<br /><br />I'm guessing the market will find some way to make the jobs data initiate the dollar cycle bottom and the stock cycle top.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-84995476791102488602010-10-07T18:22:00.192-07:002010-10-07T18:22:00.192-07:00Gary on your Oct 5th report you mentioned that SPX...Gary on your Oct 5th report you mentioned that SPX could top when the dollar hits its low. With the likely hood of unemployment rate increasing tomorrow we should see the SPX drop tomorrow and a bounce back from the USD index?Gurvirhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09005900388351342978noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-78600608674491157392010-10-07T18:20:43.764-07:002010-10-07T18:20:43.764-07:00Bede,
I wouldn't count on it. That's why I...Bede,<br />I wouldn't count on it. That's why I'm not going to lose my position here.<br /><br />Nick,<br />There will certainly be a vicious D-wave decline as the dollar comes roaring out of that 3 year cycle low. No doubt about it. We will try to avoid that and get back in at the bottom of the D-wave.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-25562996983538266732010-10-07T18:19:53.621-07:002010-10-07T18:19:53.621-07:00The main reason I have become increasingly expecta...The main reason I have become increasingly expectant of a stock market decline this evening is that I ran the 5 week average of the AAII bull/bear ratio.<br /><br />The last three times that the investors were this bullish were on 1/11/10, 5/19/08, and 10/15/07. All were a good time to be leaving Dodge.<br /><br />Purists will note that these dates were all Mondays, an artifact of my computer program handling weekly data. The actual dates were on Thursday morning of those weeks.<br /><br />A distant fourth place for bullishness went to the first week of May of this year, and we all know how that turned out.Weshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17674078449364685370noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-56576746377770400572010-10-07T17:57:02.965-07:002010-10-07T17:57:02.965-07:00OK Gary, getting a little greedy here: I get your ...OK Gary, getting a little greedy here: I get your thesis for the 3 year cycle low in the $$$ next year and the C-wave top in Gold. But, what after that, Gold does not enter a D-wave, but continues on its runaway move dropping about $40-$60 on pullbacks? I guess, I am looking for some sort of definition of D-wave (or crash) since we know the definition of a runaway move (about $40 pullback)Nickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05224566348172561930noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-75089127663076098112010-10-07T17:41:38.925-07:002010-10-07T17:41:38.925-07:00Gary,
I assume you're expecting $HUI to drop ...Gary,<br /><br />I assume you're expecting $HUI to drop below 500. Are you expecting it to tag the 50 or the 200 dma?Le Fouhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08417796902511410002noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-67392770737582791442010-10-07T17:21:41.620-07:002010-10-07T17:21:41.620-07:00Thanks Gary. That's clear.Thanks Gary. That's clear.Le Fouhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08417796902511410002noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-64075173887559834012010-10-07T17:17:07.263-07:002010-10-07T17:17:07.263-07:00The way I was thinking about the fed purchases etc...The way I was thinking about the fed purchases etc. Is that money was just taking the place of all the assets that were wiped from the housing collapse. Why would that create inflation, if the fed money was just replacing something that vanished?SkepticSquirrelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09975705335589927121noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-54389378409977219882010-10-07T17:04:55.756-07:002010-10-07T17:04:55.756-07:00Runaway moves end in some kind of crash, like Feb....Runaway moves end in some kind of crash, like Feb. 07 or May of this year. If gold was in a runaway move then the intermediate cycle low would likely come as an out of the blue semi crash.<br /><br />A move of $50 or more lower at this point would signal either the end of the runaway move and an impending crash or that this wasn't a runaway move. It was just a very powerful rally driven by the dollar collapsing. <br /><br />I think there is virtually 0 chance of a crash with the dollar dropping into a yearly cycle low so it's more likely this was just a really powerful rally.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-1397535321200209012010-10-07T16:53:32.256-07:002010-10-07T16:53:32.256-07:00Sorry Gary,
I don't understand this statement...Sorry Gary,<br /><br />I don't understand this statement:<br /><br />"However a $50 move would then signal the end of the runaway move and that the crash phase was impending." <br /><br />You're hoping for a ~ $60 move down to $1300. What is the "crash phase" that will be impending?Le Fouhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08417796902511410002noreply@blogger.com