tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post5505126783374837289..comments2023-10-29T02:04:09.499-07:00Comments on Smart Money Tracker: NEW POSTGaryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comBlogger573125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-39472178954262491902011-02-02T17:34:59.003-08:002011-02-02T17:34:59.003-08:00I would point out that the money is being loaned o...I would point out that the money is being loaned out by the boat load to the banking system and they are putting it to work in asset markets. It's why we have inflation already. It's why gas no longer costs $1.60 or why bread is almost $5.00.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-60728223794331390042011-02-02T17:29:15.443-08:002011-02-02T17:29:15.443-08:00Chinese Gold Demand Stuns London & Hong Kong T...Chinese Gold Demand Stuns London & Hong Kong Traders<br /><br />"‘The demand is unbelievable. The size of the orders is enormous,’ said one senior banker, who estimated that China had imported about 200 tonnes in three months.”<br /><br />"I think the key here Eric is that inflation is roaring out of control in Asia, particularly in China. While the western monetary authorities are doing their best to convince their citizens that inflation is not a serious problem, the reality is quite different. To quote Bernanke, ‘Fear of inflation is overstated.’ The citizens of Asia and other regions are not impressed with such statements. Those people have been buying gold and they will continue buying gold as long as inflation is alive and well and I see no end to that in the foreseeable future.”<br /><br />http://preview.tinyurl.com/4ua5yj3Le Fouhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08417796902511410002noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-29323994520756265672011-02-02T17:07:59.235-08:002011-02-02T17:07:59.235-08:00Sorry, should read :
"3 year rate of annual ...Sorry, should read :<br /><br />"3 year rate of annual growth"<br /><br />By the way, the growth of M2 in just the latest year is running at only 4.2%, so you can see the Fed's problem.Weshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17674078449364685370noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-64156945507307055842011-02-02T17:01:52.827-08:002011-02-02T17:01:52.827-08:00TZ,
I think you are confusing the money base with...TZ,<br /><br />I think you are confusing the money base with money supply. They are very different things.<br /><br />Nobody doubts that money base has been increased enormously by the Fed, and that creates the potential for inflation. But, until that base is loaned out by the banks, that money is not in circulation, and just remains potential, not actual, inflation.<br /><br />The Fed plans to retire that money before much can be loaned out. We'll see if that happens.<br /><br />Meanwhile, the 3 rate of annual growth of M2 is currently running at 5.57%, well below the Fed's "ideal" rate of about 7.5%. And that's why they are pumping so hard, trying to increase that rate, so far with little result.Weshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17674078449364685370noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-41441443270883306642011-02-02T16:33:50.751-08:002011-02-02T16:33:50.751-08:00TURK; very similar to my comments
http://kingworl...TURK; very similar to my comments<br /><br />http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/1/31_James_Turk_-_Gold_%26_Silver_Have_Reached_an_Important_Bottom.htmlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-5614086835816327042011-02-02T16:10:28.125-08:002011-02-02T16:10:28.125-08:00Sure would be nice to see one more smash in gold w...Sure would be nice to see one more smash in gold with the miners double bottoming:)Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08705376846499784572noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-76052985593905006432011-02-02T16:03:06.379-08:002011-02-02T16:03:06.379-08:00One just has to have the patience to wait for the ...One just has to have the patience to wait for the move to get started. Then not get thrown off during the initial shakeout.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-46223502475849295262011-02-02T16:01:17.001-08:002011-02-02T16:01:17.001-08:00Both Uranium, solars and rare earths are pretty co...Both Uranium, solars and rare earths are pretty common trades at this point and are talked about frequently on CNBC.<br /><br />Usually if the trade has lasted long enough to get the media all bulled up it's getting long in the tooth.<br /><br />No one is talking about gold or miners anymore except to tell everyone that the bubble has burst.<br /><br />That's the kind of sentiment where I want to put my money. The chances for a huge move are infinitely better with that kind of sentiment than one where everyone is falling all over themselves to get on board.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-28569806929767601242011-02-02T15:48:04.309-08:002011-02-02T15:48:04.309-08:00How about Uranium or Solars?How about Uranium or Solars?Jayhawkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06180238054191226687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-23783024704543709652011-02-02T15:47:12.137-08:002011-02-02T15:47:12.137-08:00No way would I even consider playing energy at thi...No way would I even consider playing energy at this point. OIH is stretched 33% above the 200 day moving average.<br /><br />That's not a point at which one would expect to have huge upside potential.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-59310659949807946012011-02-02T15:40:53.405-08:002011-02-02T15:40:53.405-08:00"just DON'T get" sorry"just DON'T get" sorryJayhawkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06180238054191226687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-21989461016953736222011-02-02T15:39:56.292-08:002011-02-02T15:39:56.292-08:00How do you predict a move like NAK? I had a decen...How do you predict a move like NAK? I had a decent chunk but sold it. That thing is a monster. I just get why certain miners do that (GORO) and others like AUY suck for years.<br /><br />Good comments TZ. I would say you and me tend to over think (you sound way smarter than me) and can talk ourselves out of any trade out there. I desperately need to be right and sit tight this year, OLD TURKEY for REALZ.<br /><br />I agree with Alex. So much bullish action going down in other sectors, why not trade some of these charts while we are in waiting mode? Shoot, ags, solars, coal, etc...just had VERY nice moves. I've thrown a few bucks at DNN & UEC. I might just let those ride for a long time. Same deal with a chart like LDK. Nice C&H base on the daily, looks like a double.Jayhawkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06180238054191226687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-58989053165527942462011-02-02T15:37:52.668-08:002011-02-02T15:37:52.668-08:00Alex, Oh I trade little stuff all the time. I too ...Alex, Oh I trade little stuff all the time. I too am waiting/hoping to catch the next bull in gold. I wasn't suggesting getting a small position in a stock that doubles is a waste of time, I just didn't know if you were playing them with big money or little money. Even the junior PM's have too much company-specific risk for me. I'm an old fart at this point and am not trying to shoot the lights out. 50% in a huge bull gold move with 1/2 my NW is fine for me! In the meantime my waiting has been fruitless and yours has been profitable...enough said.DGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15668568316531084679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-81683222300745730702011-02-02T15:31:11.667-08:002011-02-02T15:31:11.667-08:00DG
I should have done the long story short!!
You...DG<br /><br />I should have done the long story short!!<br /><br />You said..."It's fun to have a $5 stock turn into a 1$10 one, but I'd rather have a huge load of a stock that goes from $25 to $35."<br /><br />And I say...yeah, but you havent been able to do that Nov to now...so your money has to wait. I just have a better way to 'wait'..UNTIL WE CAN jump in SLW BIG and ride with out thinking about it :)<br /><br />Again, it was an honest question...I just dont think those stocks are flakey..(EXK, NAK etc) sometimes the juniors run after the larger caps. Its just 'timing the trade'<br /><br />Its all good :)ALEXhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04085157354083302362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-55086209659286867352011-02-02T15:30:43.631-08:002011-02-02T15:30:43.631-08:00Gary that is true. This top is much more complex....Gary that is true. This top is much more complex.The Hookhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09663409569521261853noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-18728670702058121422011-02-02T15:26:20.264-08:002011-02-02T15:26:20.264-08:00Hook,
The whipsaw action at tops will start the in...Hook,<br />The whipsaw action at tops will start the indicators trending down. But that action occurs in a very narrow price range as you can see from the chart.<br /><br />The current chart is nothing at all like prior tops. That is pretty easy to see without a magnifying glass.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-72126729160445461982011-02-02T15:24:47.416-08:002011-02-02T15:24:47.416-08:00DG
I understand what your saying...and my reply i...DG<br /><br />I understand what your saying...and my reply is with a nice tone... :)<br /><br />(REE ,NAK , isnt under $10).<br /><br />And you know me by now...I am an investor in P.M.'s and a trader during most of the 'correction' in p.m.'s<br />( I even watch you nibble on shorts, and could also ask..are you re trades worth it)? Buy yes, mine really are!<br /><br />I am a trader , and I have developed my own method of selecting, trading certain set-ups. I am very confident when I buy My set up...and quickly see if I am wrong.<br /><br />Honestly , I used to mention 'trades' and people asked me to post them as I traded...so there they are. I posted over 35 trades...32 wins , 3 losses of less that 2% (TZA , JASO stopped me out, and 1 more) My gains were 80%, 50% , 40%.<br /><br />EX...NAK (solid company, not shaky as you say) GMO..solid molly co) , EXK..solid silver producer, etc Under 10 , yes, today...but also undervalued. Did you see NAK?? Whew.<br /><br />Everyone saw me by NAK , REE , FTK , GMO , etc. I RIDE THEM, I am not afraid jumping in and out because I know what to look for...not listening to everyone who thinks a crash is imminent- I buy maybe 2000, 3000 shares here , 1500 there...and I trade often. Yup, it has been very worth it...it adds up if you cut losses and add gains ..I know now I have QUITE a bit more for the p.m. IT low then if I stood still in Nov, but thats how I trade :)<br /><br />I love ya Bro.. it was an honest question ,I didnt take it wrong. I hope i dont sound arrogant, I'd rather trade and just chat.<br /><br />gotta shovel more,,,laterALEXhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04085157354083302362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-55986458344984547862011-02-02T15:23:22.662-08:002011-02-02T15:23:22.662-08:00Below the red line and below the lower red dotted ...Below the red line and below the lower red dotted line... WELL off the top by April 27th. Nuff said.The Hookhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09663409569521261853noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-81080797982028269052011-02-02T15:22:22.020-08:002011-02-02T15:22:22.020-08:00Gary, maybe you should get a magnifying glass.
T...Gary, maybe you should get a magnifying glass. <br /><br />The Intermediate Score was already below the red line by April 27.<br /><br />My comments stand. The Dumb Money indicator tops well in advance of index prices.The Hookhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09663409569521261853noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-83379754356931259402011-02-02T15:18:58.420-08:002011-02-02T15:18:58.420-08:00When you see that page and see that the "Mone...When you see that page and see that the "Monetary Base" is of HIGH IMPORTANCE, then I ask you to click here:<br /><br />http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BASE<br /><br />Ooops!<br /><br />Monetary base, direct from FED. Note that we are now resuming up as a result of QE2 (the first ramp was QE1).<br /><br />But remember, printing pieces of paper is good and ultimately makes everybody rich :-)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-65468708619459242352011-02-02T15:16:06.525-08:002011-02-02T15:16:06.525-08:00The time lag of money supply increases:
http://no...The time lag of money supply increases:<br /><br />http://nowandfutures.com/money_and_lags.html<br /><br />"Significant changes in the growth rate of money supply, even small ones, impact the financial markets first. Then, they impact changes in the real economy, usually in six to nine months, but in a range of three to 18 months. Usually in about two years in the US, they correlate with changes in the rate of inflation or deflation.<br />The leads are long and variable, though the more inflation a society has experienced, history shows, the shorter the time lead will be between a change in money supply growth and the subsequent change in inflation."<br />-- Milton FriedmanAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-13911127872136269812011-02-02T15:03:14.229-08:002011-02-02T15:03:14.229-08:00Here is the intermediate score. You can see that a...<a href="http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/charts/SCORE_INT.htm" rel="nofollow">Here</a> is the intermediate score. You can see that at the Jan and April top sentiment peaked almost exactly at the market top. The current situation is much different with sentiment steadily declining over the last 3-4 weeks.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-7075003075602134202011-02-02T14:59:12.944-08:002011-02-02T14:59:12.944-08:00The same whipsaw action happened last January and ...The same whipsaw action happened last January and it started sentiment to ease then too.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-38985337663915090932011-02-02T14:58:03.307-08:002011-02-02T14:58:03.307-08:00Regarding our copper comment:
http://stockcharts....Regarding our copper comment:<br /><br />http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24gold%3A%24copper&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p18809758925<br /><br />gold lagging copper badly.<br /><br />I would say for two reasons:<br />1) manipulation by central banks and finance powers (yes, I know the opinions on the board)<br /><br />2) recognition of what gold is and its role not widespread in society. The more simple goods are rising first. As people catch on and close to the end of this game, gold/silver will pull ahead.<br /><br />Note that silver *IS* keeping up much better lately than gold is. I would attribute that to the inability of central banks to manipulate silver unlike gold because they don't hold inventory they can rig.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-81321822505143648892011-02-02T14:57:16.145-08:002011-02-02T14:57:16.145-08:00Hook,
both the intermediate score and dumb money c...Hook,<br />both the intermediate score and dumb money confidence topped almost exactly with the market in April. This time the intermediate score has been steadily declining for almost a month and dumb money confidence since late Dec.<br /><br />I think you are noticing the beginning of a change but that is due to the whipsaw action that took place at the April top.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.com