tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post5914183054223370351..comments2023-10-29T02:04:09.499-07:00Comments on Smart Money Tracker: Comment CleanerGaryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comBlogger60125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-37052997845982996982012-08-04T12:58:08.363-07:002012-08-04T12:58:08.363-07:00Gary is absolutely spot on with his "100% com...Gary is absolutely spot on with his "100% completely free" outline of the coming months /year......<br /><br />As well....there will be incredible gains/opportunities to be found in the currency markets.Stock Rockethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18431374762804135279noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-5900437212181296402012-08-04T09:37:33.675-07:002012-08-04T09:37:33.675-07:00New PostNew PostGaryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-22177475778191930402012-08-04T08:50:17.675-07:002012-08-04T08:50:17.675-07:00It makes sense. Lets see how it plays out.It makes sense. Lets see how it plays out.Pibehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16647249032786072160noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-74987781326241838902012-08-04T07:05:49.130-07:002012-08-04T07:05:49.130-07:00Ok thanks for your opinion. I'll check back in...Ok thanks for your opinion. I'll check back in September.Tihohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10336666083094327126noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-65416729830761662702012-08-04T07:02:33.568-07:002012-08-04T07:02:33.568-07:00One can go long stocks aggressively for the next 2...One can go long stocks aggressively for the next 2-3 weeks. <br /><br />Then one could short stocks or go long the dollar for the move down into the next intermediate cycle low in late Sept or early Oct.<br /><br />Shorting stocks is going to be difficult though as the move is going to unfold over many weeks. That usually means it's going to be a very difficult move with many counter trend rallies. Going long the dollar would be a lot less volatile and easier to hold onto than short stocks. <br /><br />Commodities should also experience a significant correction during this period.<br /><br />But once we get the next round of real QE then get long everything, commodities will vastly outperform stocks as this progresses for the simple reason that inflationary pressures will start to compress profit margins. <br /><br />This is the topping process I've been talking about in 2013. At first stocks will rise on the back of the next QE but they will start to stagnate as inflation heats up. <br /><br />Ultimately I would look for a top sometime in early to mid 2013 but it's going to be a very difficult top with multiple retests of the high before finally giving up and heading down in earnest late in the year or in early 2014. <br /><br />Bonds I really have no idea what to expect. With the Fed constantly in the market I don't think it's being allowed to trade freely.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-88914779732502395032012-08-04T06:51:43.610-07:002012-08-04T06:51:43.610-07:00Ok, so does that mean regardless of moves over the...Ok, so does that mean regardless of moves over the coming couple of weeks which don't really interest me, in general you are very bullish on commodities for the next couple of years, relatively optimistic on stocks to stay around these levels or a little higher into 2013 and therefore bearish on the Dollar? <br /><br />What about Treasury Bonds? <br /><br />Am I right to assume those longer term outlooks? So go long commodities, don't short stocks, short the US Dollar for the next few quarters to say the least?Tihohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10336666083094327126noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-86161058460554784782012-08-04T06:42:34.282-07:002012-08-04T06:42:34.282-07:00I think the economy is slowing and in recession in...I think the economy is slowing and in recession in Europe. That however has nothing to do with the stock market. <br /><br />The dollar is now moving down into an intermediate cycle low. That is going to drive stocks and commodities higher for the next 2-3 weeks. I expect at least a marginal breakout to new highs and maybe even bigger gains if the dollar drops really aggressively.<br /><br />But then that will be it and stocks and commodities will form another intermediate top and another multi week decline into the next major cycle low in late Sept or early Oct as the dollar rallies out of that intermediate low. <br /><br />At that point the market will call the CB's bluff and it will take real action and true balance sheet expansion if they want to keep asset prices inflated.<br /><br />I believe they will take real action because they keep telling us they will. That will rescue the stock market temporarily and start the long topping process that I'm expecting in 2013. It will also ignite the fire underneath commodities that I believe will ultimately end in a major inflationary spike in 2014 during the dollar's next three year cycle low.<br /><br />It will also complete the three year cycle top in the dollar.<br /><br />Whether or not the dollar can move back to new highs during it's next intermediate cycle remains to be seen. My guess is that it will not. But the first leg up in the CRB occurred with the dolalr rising so I may be wrong about the bottom in the CRB marking the exact top in the dollar. We may very well see one more spike higher in the dollar before Ben intervenes to break the rally.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-89903025642430185952012-08-04T06:29:39.507-07:002012-08-04T06:29:39.507-07:00Gary can you please read that post if you have spa...Gary can you please read that post if you have spare time, and tell me which side, if any, you would be taking? Thanks.Tihohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10336666083094327126noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-91802408441296322782012-08-04T06:03:17.603-07:002012-08-04T06:03:17.603-07:00I'm pretty sure the markets are controlled by ...I'm pretty sure the markets are controlled by human emotions. The same thing that has controlled them for thousands of years and the same thing that will control them for the next thousand years. <br /><br />I really can't come up with any logical reason for the planets to influence traders. They certainly don't exert enough gravitational pull to have any noticeable effect on the earth. Certainly nothing even vaguely close to the moon which circles the globe every 27 days.<br /><br />Of course if the moon's gravitational effect was influencing traders then that effect would ripple around the world as it made it's monthly journey. So in effect it would create a wave and trades on one side of the world would react opposite to the side the moon was on. <br /><br />Obviously that doesn't happen so I have to deduce that humans are not responding to the minimal gravitational effect of the moon. And if they aren't being effected by that then how in the world could the vastly smaller pull of the planets have any effect?Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-71622736295730218492012-08-04T05:52:30.287-07:002012-08-04T05:52:30.287-07:00You guys and your planetary alignment BS. Arch Cr...You guys and your planetary alignment BS. Arch Crawford was on Jay Taylor's radio show a couple weeks ago and stated in no uncertain term something VERY BAD was going to happen in the stock market between July 16 - the 18th. I wrote it down because I knew it was bull. NOTHING HAPPENED. Looking at the planets is fine, but there is a MUCH higher power that created them.Lyonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00584700994069144017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-12238454379694526862012-08-03T20:21:26.905-07:002012-08-03T20:21:26.905-07:00NOTHING NEW UNDER THE SUN,,,,,,,,,,,
http://img6...NOTHING NEW UNDER THE SUN,,,,,,,,,,,<br /><br /><br />http://img600.imageshack.us/img600/4799/dowj.jpgjoedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11431570805275310899noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-30225023610425616662012-08-03T20:17:36.779-07:002012-08-03T20:17:36.779-07:00Gary,
I understand.......I find this heat wave cy...Gary,<br /><br />I understand.......I find this heat wave cycle very interesting also! AND it anin't all over yet if the Master Cycle plays out as it has so far....<br /><br />By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again, and again, and again -- and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law... The same Nature which delights in periodical repetition in the sky is the Nature which orders the affairs of the earth. Let us not underrate the value of that hint." - Mark Twainjoedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11431570805275310899noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-2184011230671698572012-08-03T19:43:26.507-07:002012-08-03T19:43:26.507-07:00joed,
Thanks for the post.Good read.
There is a p...joed,<br />Thanks for the post.Good read.<br /><br />There is a pattern there and some very clever people have recognised that these repeated cycles are more than coincidence...they are directly correlated to certain planetary alignments (see my earlier post on previous 2 blogs). The planets in our solar system move in orbits similar to Earth's only with different time periods and because of the time differences of the orbits, such specific alignments it is believed, have an influence over the inhabitants of earth. These alignments are like clockwork OR CYCLES and are repeated over 30,84,165, 248 yrs. <br />One very important event occured in 2008, and will continue through to 2019-20 (outer planets forming hard angles to the Earth). The influence of two specific planets on the USA will imply civil unrest..perhaps even civil war, rebellion (anarchy) and very clear distaste for ruling authority perhaps even a 2nd revolution. Prolonged economic troubles are envisaged.<br /><br />I find it very interesting that others are recognising the pattern there. Although their qualifications for suggesting such uprisings are "effects" not causes. What creates the problem in the first place and what triggers such circumstances is critical for understanding the eventual demise. Only to then understand that coming out of such an event is a positive and enlightening event for all.<br />One recent event which most americans would be aware of is the drought...one of severest on record. In fact you would have to go back to 1931 to witness something of the same magnitude. Eerily, in that time, the Planet Saturn (in ancient Roman religion their god Saturnus was the god of Agriculture) was in transit, as it is now. Critically other outer planets have come into transit simultaneously. These slower moving planets are malicious and when aligned in certain angles/opposed to, work very hard to bring negativity to/upset the dominant planet(s).<br />That's not my theory, but I find it fascinating the events we are experiencing are something more than coincidence with history and with planetery alignments. As Mark Twain put it "History repeats, but it doesnt rhyme". Same is true for planet orbits and alignment. Difficult economic times were forecast well before they arrived. As to the ongoing effects...well they too are forecast.Liquid Motionhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15146453570713941699noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-17798205365134584772012-08-03T18:47:17.392-07:002012-08-03T18:47:17.392-07:00I'm not bearish on gold. I have a position in ...I'm not bearish on gold. I have a position in miners.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-19532259389556231922012-08-03T18:15:47.730-07:002012-08-03T18:15:47.730-07:00SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT!
http://news.yahoo.com/u...SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT!<br /><br />http://news.yahoo.com/us-really-experience-violent-upheaval-2020-162332158.htmljoedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11431570805275310899noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-39881340166945747592012-08-03T18:14:50.260-07:002012-08-03T18:14:50.260-07:00DCL in USD with a bottom expected in 2-3 weeks.......DCL in USD with a bottom expected in 2-3 weeks.....does Gold find its feet and rally up to test $1640<br />I know ur bearish on gold short term Gary, but this has merit and positive implications.<br />Similarly Silver (although showing extreme bearishness) could test the $30 resistance.Liquid Motionhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15146453570713941699noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-91847693151411058332012-08-03T18:07:23.301-07:002012-08-03T18:07:23.301-07:00Gary,
Some could argue that the US is already suff...Gary,<br />Some could argue that the US is already suffering a depression....just that its not "offcially" recognised by the mainstream keynesian economists.<br />I seriously doubt that it will ever be recognised during the phase (numbers being distorted). Some years afterwards when the data is analysed, the history books will reflect/show the truth.<br />In the midst of the Great Depression of the 30's there was denial and ignorance until final recognition. Stands to reason doesnt it that professing or acknowledging a fact (recession/depression)by the regulators creates a vicious cycle and downward spiral in attitude/confidence and well being of the economy. If it aint broken ...we dont need to fix it.<br /><br />IMO we are living the depression now in many parts of the world.Liquid Motionhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15146453570713941699noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-20993068708944875512012-08-03T17:12:22.818-07:002012-08-03T17:12:22.818-07:00Gary I see. I was in the mid of regretting missing...Gary I see. I was in the mid of regretting missing the Biotech move from last summer :)Ivan Ghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15607548028015226555noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-78834552656334824192012-08-03T17:06:58.363-07:002012-08-03T17:06:58.363-07:00Gary, if you dont mind me asking, what was the har...Gary, if you dont mind me asking, what was the hardest lesson you learned in your business life. I assume you had many, and I imagine you have a wise head on your shoulders at this stage. Thank youhead scratcherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04538631797389460806noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-59634754393638274422012-08-03T17:05:34.749-07:002012-08-03T17:05:34.749-07:00He's pretty easy to spot and swat. He never ha...He's pretty easy to spot and swat. He never has anything positive to say.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-82573455491756201632012-08-03T17:03:41.410-07:002012-08-03T17:03:41.410-07:00He will come back. Easy to assume a new name.He will come back. Easy to assume a new name.head scratcherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04538631797389460806noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-34568445837658994472012-08-03T17:03:21.066-07:002012-08-03T17:03:21.066-07:00Ivan,
I think this will play out much different th...Ivan,<br />I think this will play out much different than 37 to 45. The world had already experienced much of the depression by 37. <br /><br />We have yet to suffer the depression we owe for creating another debt bubble. I have to assume that our payment is still in the future somewhere. <br /><br />If we continue the way we've been going for the last 12 years, our depression is going to come in a completely different form than the one in the 30's. <br /><br />Ours will be of an inflationary nature instead of deflationary. Possibly even hyperinflationary if we don't come to our senses in time.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-28511791553861963182012-08-03T16:37:49.553-07:002012-08-03T16:37:49.553-07:00The US, Germany, Great Britain and EEM are not in ...The US, Germany, Great Britain and EEM are not in bear markets yet. Most are in a trading range very similar to what happened from 37 to 45. <br /><br />What is this - 1937 to 1945. So we'll get to the beginning of next bull drifting sideways ?<br /><br />If that's the case I can think 2012 to be 1942 - the bottom from there on the exit was clear. Or it is not ?Ivan Ghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15607548028015226555noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-56937331733093313102012-08-03T13:22:42.957-07:002012-08-03T13:22:42.957-07:00Shawn,
I clearly stated I was wrong on the dollar ...Shawn,<br />I clearly stated I was wrong on the dollar for 4 days. That's the total number of days the dollar spent above the June 1st high. <br /><br />Let me refresh your memory. The trade was that the CRB was going to form a three year cycle low. That in turn should mean that the dollar is at or very near a three year cycle top. <br /><br />The trade is long commodities, not short the dollar. It was never short the dollar. I don't trade currencies other than a very rare trade on UUP.<br /><br />So far I have been right on the money. The CRB has formed a major bottom and the dollar appears to be following through with the top despite managing to close four days above where I expected the top to be.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-8342028020489221152012-08-03T13:16:46.870-07:002012-08-03T13:16:46.870-07:00The model portfolio performance was updated immedi...The model portfolio performance was updated immediately on the premium website.<br /><br />I'm not planning to publish it on the blogs anymore no matter where it goes.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.com