tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post6600017365451939852..comments2023-10-29T02:04:09.499-07:00Comments on Smart Money Tracker: BEAR'S BEWARE IIGaryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comBlogger130125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-17830023949696638132010-07-15T13:07:14.642-07:002010-07-15T13:07:14.642-07:00Gary,
Your prediction that stock bears would be s...Gary,<br /><br />Your prediction that stock bears would be slow to buy into the move up in prices seems to be correct. <br /><br />The Hulbert data showed that newsletter writers actually increased in bearishness from -6.5% last week to -12.7% by the end of Monday.<br /><br />The Rydex ratio indicates slightly less bearishness now, moving from -16% last week to a still bearish -7.8% through yesterday. These guys are usually quick to embrace a move up, and this is unusual bearishness for them.<br /><br />The Investors Intelligence readings through yesterday show a plunge in bullishness from about 41% bulls last week to only 32.6% bulls. That is quite a move for these investors because 25% of them are perma-bulls. Of the remaining bulls, it looks like at least half capitulated this week.<br /><br />My favorite indicator is the OEX options traders. These large, usually always correct traders, recorded 14 consecutive days of buying more calls than puts, a streak that included 10 consecutive down days for the OEX 100. That streak ended yesterday when they bought 102 puts per 100 calls. Their 15 DMA is currently 78.4 puts per 100 calls, a very bullish result.Wesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-23255775349772297392010-07-15T06:42:58.120-07:002010-07-15T06:42:58.120-07:00Bull markets have cows, all along the way.
Is it ...Bull markets have cows, all along the way.<br /><br />Is it true that GLD's beta is only .10?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-22893555212340801182010-07-15T06:40:41.704-07:002010-07-15T06:40:41.704-07:00Gold also "had a cow" in December -09, a...Gold also "had a cow" in December -09, and Feb. of this year, only to hit all time highs last month. Get long gold while it's still cheap.<br /><br />Don't make me sell it to you at $4,000/oz.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-31986310386608872582010-07-15T06:39:53.360-07:002010-07-15T06:39:53.360-07:00Gold is under the 50. The pattern works if it is c...Gold is under the 50. The pattern works if it is crawling along the top of a rising 50 DMA. In that case we would look for a break lower. The dollar just completed this pattern.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-79033408923751862152010-07-15T06:36:02.863-07:002010-07-15T06:36:02.863-07:00Gary,
What do you make out of Gold's crawling ...Gary,<br />What do you make out of Gold's crawling pattern along 50DMA?<br /><br />You used to have tenet in the front page of the blog and one of them had pointers on crawling pattern. I was just trying to make a speculation out of this crawling pattern.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-80046003582995632992010-07-15T06:21:06.662-07:002010-07-15T06:21:06.662-07:00May was just a normal daily cycle correction. They...May was just a normal daily cycle correction. They happen like clockwork about every 20 days.<br /><br />At the present time gold is working it's way into a larger degree correction that happens about every 20 weeks. As this is week 23 we are now getting very late in the cycle. It could bottom at any time and may have already bottomed.<br /><br />The fact remains that the dollar isn't really strong. Let's face it you can't print several trillion dollars out of thin air and end up with a "strong" currency. The world just doesn't work that way.<br /><br />Gold has been telling us very clearly that the strong dollar is nothing more than a mirage.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-68661087775885154102010-07-15T06:12:27.222-07:002010-07-15T06:12:27.222-07:00^A few months is far too short a time span to make...^A few months is far too short a time span to make such a judgment. And if you didn't notice gold began to have a cow in mid May. Gold has 'decoupled' from the dollar before only to swing back into sync violently.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-37709461585113087112010-07-15T06:05:35.291-07:002010-07-15T06:05:35.291-07:00Gold has rallied from a low of 1040 to a high of 1...Gold has rallied from a low of 1040 to a high of 1265 while the dollar was moving up strongly. Actually to the same levels we saw during the extreme deflationary period of March 09. <br /><br />So yes gold has decoupled from the dollar.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-29313508977900441532010-07-15T06:03:02.966-07:002010-07-15T06:03:02.966-07:00^It is far too early to say that gold has complete...^It is far too early to say that gold has completely 'decoupled' from anything. If that were true gold would be well over $1,500 already.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-14121627097799039812010-07-15T05:48:16.994-07:002010-07-15T05:48:16.994-07:00Anon,
In caase you didn't notice gold rallied ...Anon,<br />In caase you didn't notice gold rallied whether the dollar was rising or falling.<br /><br />Gold understands the fallacy of a strong dollar. The truth is there are no strong currencies. It's why gold has now decoupled from all currencies and is rising in every currency.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-26048855592250714262010-07-15T05:44:38.540-07:002010-07-15T05:44:38.540-07:00No nothing last night. I had a doctors appointment...No nothing last night. I had a doctors appointment that would have made it late and nothing happened yesterday anyway.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-29551289306848438632010-07-15T05:15:59.456-07:002010-07-15T05:15:59.456-07:00No premium post last night?No premium post last night?Le Fouhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08417796902511410002noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-8590200832865871552010-07-15T05:04:58.432-07:002010-07-15T05:04:58.432-07:00I might even take a short side trade in stocks som...I might even take a short side trade in stocks sometime in the next few weeks, but it'll only be for a week-long hold at most.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-88004799187896960472010-07-15T05:03:32.016-07:002010-07-15T05:03:32.016-07:006 months or 6 years from now, we might be up sever...6 months or 6 years from now, we might be up several hundred percent, before this decline you refer to. The strong hands are the ones that keep most of their money and the only way to do that is to be on the right side, not guessing the next big reversal.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-79752628364514581762010-07-15T04:59:39.228-07:002010-07-15T04:59:39.228-07:00Only Gary shares his thoughts and experiences duri...Only Gary shares his thoughts and experiences during drawdowns, as he is held accountable for decisions through his writing a newsletter.<br /><br />Being 100% long GOLD is something to be content with come what may, not long OR short stocks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-7204732062384417122010-07-15T04:35:48.951-07:002010-07-15T04:35:48.951-07:00^I wouldn't brag about being 100% long. If you...^I wouldn't brag about being 100% long. If you don't hedge it is only a matter of time before you destroy your account. Might be 6 months from now. Might be 6 years from now. You can't possibly know when in these volatile and manipulated times.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-15953077276575603012010-07-15T04:09:28.450-07:002010-07-15T04:09:28.450-07:00Looks like pain for the bears again today. It sur...Looks like pain for the bears again today. It sure gets quiet around here when they get spanked.<br /><br />Next time they resurface after a 2 day win streak, just remember a broken clock is right 2x/day, and don't let them convince you they made money, or even got whole again.<br /><br />Notice they never come to share their pain, as well as exit strategy and prices? When avoiding embarrassment is a factor in your trading, your typically doomed as a trader.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-28667529232243312412010-07-15T03:52:46.527-07:002010-07-15T03:52:46.527-07:00Dollar has serious support at 82. Euro strength wi...Dollar has serious support at 82. Euro strength will buckle at about that time. This will give gold a few more up days to about 1232 max and then a sharp sell off to retest its trend line from November 2008. This will most likely coincide with a wicked little sell off in the S&P500 which should take place in about 3 days. Hold on to your hats. Gold's retesting of the November 2008 trend line must hold or we could suffer a very sharp near term sell off. I don't like to see the trend line tested so many times in such a short period. That does not indicate strength, but rather doubt. Just my two cents.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-32202591453257642452010-07-14T20:30:16.094-07:002010-07-14T20:30:16.094-07:00I see where our boy TK is still trying to short th...I see where our boy TK is still trying to short this market. I've never seen anyone have such a hard time figuring out that markets go up & down.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-52496388518995730022010-07-14T20:00:36.558-07:002010-07-14T20:00:36.558-07:00Who can recall the last time the Fed predicted a n...Who can recall the last time the Fed predicted a negative scenario 5-6 years into the future? It's ridiculous. They're politicians and nothing more, manipulating the sheep into more dollar debasement via another QE. As it is, they don't even need to have us agree, as they can print money and buy all the debt they want, in taxpayers' names.<br /><br />The Fed just prefers to have it on record that Americans begged for relief, which they generously provided.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-32754172934688787612010-07-14T16:01:16.900-07:002010-07-14T16:01:16.900-07:00Gary, you and I know that shorting stocks is rarel...Gary, you and I know that shorting stocks is rarely the best way to make money in the market. :)Chris Beaniehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04251024125518218874noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-79154803086165373402010-07-14T13:55:22.162-07:002010-07-14T13:55:22.162-07:00Yep I pointed that out a couple of weeks ago to su...Yep I pointed that out a couple of weeks ago to subscribers.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-53408349965744223972010-07-14T13:45:14.161-07:002010-07-14T13:45:14.161-07:00Gary,
There simply was no evidence of financial d...Gary,<br /><br />There simply was no evidence of financial distress during the correction. Looking at the junk bonds (HYG), which certainly should be the financial canary, shows only a modest reaction.Wesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-50372320280292350812010-07-14T13:39:30.182-07:002010-07-14T13:39:30.182-07:00Marc,
Usually just the end of day.
Most of the ti...Marc,<br />Usually just the end of day.<br /><br />Most of the time I'm out climbing during the day anyway :)Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-83788986025644328052010-07-14T13:07:04.386-07:002010-07-14T13:07:04.386-07:00I know your advice is to quit watching the market ...I know your advice is to quit watching the market but sometimes I can't resist ;)<br /><br />Anyway, earlier today there was selling on strength in SPY but then the last reading was almost 300M buying on weakness in SPY.<br /><br />Gary, do you only look at the EOD numbers for this?Marchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13935848992860543227noreply@blogger.com