tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post6695705482318035598..comments2023-10-29T02:04:09.499-07:00Comments on Smart Money Tracker: DOLLAR COILINGGaryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comBlogger151125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-61343700756793714352010-03-16T09:42:54.966-07:002010-03-16T09:42:54.966-07:00Looking at the chart from your Mar 15th update, I ...Looking at the chart from your Mar 15th update, I have a question about your cycle theory. Why is the early October 2009 dip in the SPX not classed as a daily cycle low? It would certainly affect any further thinking about recent cycle durations.Davidnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-537772785168864952010-03-11T04:58:54.948-08:002010-03-11T04:58:54.948-08:00What a jackass.
While I'm up 8.19% in my DGP ...What a jackass.<br /><br />While I'm up 8.19% in my DGP long.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-44015491533570641852010-03-11T04:20:42.950-08:002010-03-11T04:20:42.950-08:00Jake,
Why would you want to sell the NDX now it...Jake,<br />Why would you want to sell the NDX now it's not even up to resistance yet, not to mention that's a very dangerous trade?<br /><br />Safer to just let the correction happen and buy the dip.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-66438757031560124122010-03-11T04:15:49.240-08:002010-03-11T04:15:49.240-08:00Gary
NQ June '10
on the Globex .
JakeGary<br /> NQ June '10 <br /> on the Globex . <br /> JakePhilhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03049413056228428762noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-38394274397411205442010-03-10T21:31:06.648-08:002010-03-10T21:31:06.648-08:00wow...based on some of the comments on here lately...wow...based on some of the comments on here lately it sure seems some folks failed reading comprehension back in elementary school. I suppose they are the ones working for minimum wage. $30.00 dollar move in gold in two days is nothing. You might want to go back over the archives here at SMT from 2 and 3 years ago where Gary discussed multiple, multiple times about we would see $50- 100.00 dollar moves a day in the Gold Price. And he also discussed why that would be so. <br /><br />I will rephrase something Gary also said many many times...<br /><br />pull up a 10 year chart of Gold..stand back from your computer about 6 feet and see which way the chart is moving.<br /><br />Now do the same with the US dollar.<br /><br />get it? Is that clear enough?<br /><br />This doesn't apply to day/short term traders of course..but Gary has been clear he is not a day/short term trader. <br />It doesn't get easier than that and anyone who can't figure that out doesn't deserve to call themselves a thinking human.Natanarchisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17320547998312593082noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-46227282552925385362010-03-10T20:43:18.662-08:002010-03-10T20:43:18.662-08:00BTW how could you miss interpret that? I even drew...BTW how could you miss interpret that? I even drew a nice little chart with the expected path.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-15327470633825658542010-03-10T20:40:59.114-08:002010-03-10T20:40:59.114-08:00In case you missed the meaning in the post, I was ...In case you missed the meaning in the post, I was speculating the dollar would rise sharply followed by a storng reversal in the opposite direction. <br /><br />So if you want to take a contrary position you would need to short the dollar and buy gold.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-81914521881229954952010-03-10T20:37:49.012-08:002010-03-10T20:37:49.012-08:00Dollar coiling? So that means Euro and Yen and Pou...Dollar coiling? So that means Euro and Yen and Pound rising? Somehow it seems like more hope and smoke than reality non?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-53145912495563918222010-03-10T20:35:51.554-08:002010-03-10T20:35:51.554-08:00Whoppie gold is down $30 in 2 days! What a contrar...Whoppie gold is down $30 in 2 days! What a contrarian sign, great post Gary, keep it coming, more dollar collapse posts and I would be able to afford gold with my minimum wage soon.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-71233073613041737562010-03-10T20:35:08.549-08:002010-03-10T20:35:08.549-08:00If my options were leaps I would have held them to...If my options were leaps I would have held them too.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-82379753740514404972010-03-10T20:34:30.318-08:002010-03-10T20:34:30.318-08:00I do have losers. I'm still holding on to them...I do have losers. I'm still holding on to them.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-55339750860626796112010-03-10T20:33:06.683-08:002010-03-10T20:33:06.683-08:00"A lot of my positions I've been holding ..."A lot of my positions I've been holding since April"<br />Yes, so you have said. And I said that at most those positions represented a 50% of what became 125% in January and now 25%. How could you have no losers there given the miners performance?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-8039024273468115222010-03-10T20:31:51.415-08:002010-03-10T20:31:51.415-08:00No not at all. It's just a joint venture and w...No not at all. It's just a joint venture and we need a separate site to keep track of traffic and commissions. I still do a good deal of the writing while my partner does most of the marketing and editing and an occasional article.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-10851836917067111022010-03-10T20:26:28.540-08:002010-03-10T20:26:28.540-08:00"I have sold no position for a loss. Maybe yo..."I have sold no position for a loss. Maybe you should get your facts straight."<br /><br />"I did lose a bit on two option positions so in that sense I did lose on some. "<br /><br />I see, IN THAT SENSE you sold some positions for a loss"<br /><br />bs pretty thick around hereAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-2941058729117532172010-03-10T20:26:20.428-08:002010-03-10T20:26:20.428-08:00Like I said before and you conviently ignored. A l...Like I said before and you conviently ignored. A lot of my psoitions I've been holding since April.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-18130480658906645862010-03-10T20:24:22.351-08:002010-03-10T20:24:22.351-08:00"I have sold no underwater stock positions&qu..."I have sold no underwater stock positions"<br /><br />Pretty amazing how that could be so: you were 50% long in December went to 125 long then now at 25% long but you sold no losers.So the stocks you chose were all massive gainers past 2 months?<br />Nice trading!!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-76052030200218311412010-03-10T20:18:58.075-08:002010-03-10T20:18:58.075-08:00Wow, the other blog is all your analysis Gary. I&...Wow, the other blog is all your analysis Gary. I'm very confused by why you would have a parter (Toby?) who would post the exact same comments on an almost identical blog. Are you trying to get away from having your name out there in public?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-75005247286316263042010-03-10T20:16:14.024-08:002010-03-10T20:16:14.024-08:00Jay,
Look at a five year chart of SSRI. It's s...Jay,<br />Look at a five year chart of SSRI. It's still up almost 300% from the Nov. low. <br /><br />There's nothing wrong with this stock that a continuation of the C-wave won't fix and fix in a hurry. It's just working off a huge move.<br /><br />A little trick I use whenever I find myself getting caught up in the day to day noise is to pull up a long term weekly chart and see if I still see the same thing I did from the daily charts.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-91684013757582371382010-03-10T20:10:01.722-08:002010-03-10T20:10:01.722-08:00KB-
Thanks for the feedback on my positions, I ag...KB-<br /><br />Thanks for the feedback on my positions, I agree with you on AUY and VGZ (even though this is a tiny position, I did read the bad news on it recently and had in mind to dump it). AUY is a smallish bet, but it's been struggling as of late. I had a big position in this one at first, but sliced it down pretty quickly.<br /><br />SSRI is my biggest turd without a doubt. I will never buy them again ...CDE and HL too.<br /><br />Long term, I completely agree with the fundamentals of this trade. Perhaps we are a year early? This is shaping up to be the year the dollar gets it's bounce and the euro gets trashed? The dollar will eventually take it's much deserved beating. <br /><br />What do you think about holding my June calls? Take a loss on those while I can? I'd hate to have them expire worthless. <br /><br />Also, anon who lost 70%-That's painful, sorry you went through that. What's your opinion on the action in the miners today? Are you saying you think I should sell now and take the loss? TIA<br /><br />With all this talk of how the banks will be protected, maybe we should have been long banks vs pms? Stocks like X have kicked major league tail as well...Frustrating to be chasing this trade and seeing other sectors trending up so easily. Oh well, we will have our day in the sun.<br /><br />Thanks all.Jayhawkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06180238054191226687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-92114638551613116582010-03-10T20:09:20.898-08:002010-03-10T20:09:20.898-08:00Like I said, if you jump around you run the risk o...Like I said, if you jump around you run the risk of taking multiple losses if your positions don't perform and if they don't perform enough to recover previous losses.<br /><br />Eventually weak names do recover as liqidity will flow into undervalued assets. So unless the company has a fatal flaw you will eventually do just fine by holding positions.<br /><br />I'm just not willing to get into a tangle trying to forever stay in performing stocks. You won't be able to do it on a consistent basis so why try. <br /><br />Now if you want to take a loss and then stick the money in another position and then stick with that position OK. But if you are going to continue to jump around if your position doesn't perform within a certain time frame you just get stuck in a nasty spiral trying to guess the next winner. Not worth the trouble and probably not a very high percentage way to invest.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-21281132691386564122010-03-10T20:01:29.987-08:002010-03-10T20:01:29.987-08:00My new partner. We're experimenting with some ...My new partner. We're experimenting with some marketing ideas.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-39644817353212971742010-03-10T19:59:12.991-08:002010-03-10T19:59:12.991-08:00"As I said I would not choose that method bec..."As I said I would not choose that method because it will concentrate capital into fewer and fewer positions and just because a position outperforms one time doesn't mean it will continue to do so.<br /><br />If it doesn't then you could continue to lose money because your strong names might underperform and then you would sell for another loss and go through the process all over again trying to find something that will allow you to make back your compounding losses."<br /><br />Hmmm. It all seems to boil down to the fact that you think there is no reasonable way to discriminate strong positions from weak ones. What you think are strong ones always disappoint and in fact become the next weak ones. So you are content to take what you can get from any winners that you accidentally stumble upon, and sit and hold the bad ones in hopes that they will not only eventually become winners, but that they will in fact outperform previous winners.<br /><br />It sounds to me like you've just been burned too many times in the past and have given up trying to do it right. If you look at someone like Nicolas Darvas, his entire strategy was based on identifying the very best leaders that were likely to continue to be the very best leaders. Hard to find fault with that.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-44927546293386808822010-03-10T19:57:19.667-08:002010-03-10T19:57:19.667-08:00Gary, are you related to this guy?
http://news.go...Gary, are you related to this guy?<br /><br />http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1268145810.phphamvestorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17133812096260613588noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-10081908021078548612010-03-10T19:17:46.149-08:002010-03-10T19:17:46.149-08:00As I said I would not choose that method because i...As I said I would not choose that method because it will concentrate capital into fewer and fewer positions and just because a position outperforms one time doesn't mean it will continue to do so.<br /><br />If it doesn't then you could continue to lose money because your strong names might underperform and then you would sell for another loss and go through the process all over again trying to find something that will allow you to make back your compounding losses.<br /><br />IMO one is better off just taking a position and holding on. That strategy is virtually guaranteed to make money. Whereas shuffling does still hold the possibility of whittling away at ones capital.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-68109552159652482952010-03-10T19:10:27.836-08:002010-03-10T19:10:27.836-08:00“If you want to immediately trasfer money into ano...“If you want to immediately trasfer money into another miner and are willing to hold that miner no matter how long it takes then you should be OK.”<br /><br />YES! Finally you see it! There’s not necessarily any dire consequence to doing what I was suggesting unless you do additional things that weren’t part of the discussion, like narrow all your holdings down to only a few, etc. One can always do things that worsen a situation. So there’s no need to scare people away by saying it’s the only surefire way to lose money in a secular bull. That’s nonsense. <br /><br />Now, is it a BETTER way of doing things than what you have suggested? I realize you definitely feel it is INFERIOR, but it’s a bit suspicious that no one seems to understand your reasoning. Maybe it’s a communication problem. Why don’t you try using numbers to show us how the two methods compare in a hypothetical?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com