tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post7208986660824724670..comments2023-10-29T02:04:09.499-07:00Comments on Smart Money Tracker: DO'IN THE CRAWLGaryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comBlogger164125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-18160095327650692712010-07-25T07:26:18.644-07:002010-07-25T07:26:18.644-07:00Since we haven't seen any of the bears say the...Since we haven't seen any of the bears say they covered I have to assume they are continuing to hold their positions. In doing so they demonstrate why it is so hard to make money on the short side.<br /><br />If, and this is a big if, someone cauaght the exact top in Apr. and has held all the way through all the vicious counter trend rallies and the current rally they are up 9.8%. Two weeks ago they were up 17%. See how fast a counter trend rally can wipout gains on the short side?<br /><br />More likely they got short somewhere around 1180. So they are now up 6.6%.<br /><br />Of course what really happened was that each one of those vicious counter trend rallies knocked them out for either a very small gain or a loss. And in the process it conditioned them to hold on to their position so that now when they should be cutting their losses they are letting them grow.<br /><br />This is what I mean when I say I have no desire to fight with a bear market. And if you think it's tough now just wait till the powers that be begin really intervening in the markets.<br /><br />We will for sure see another round of QE (actually it's never stopped as the Fed's balance sheet continues to grow by 10 billion a week). There will be bans on short selling. There will be more bailouts.<br /><br />One is just asking for a world of pain trying to navigate through a mess like that.<br /><br />It's so much easier just taking a position in a bull market where you have a safety net under you and then going on vacation till sometime later this fall.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-12929480945499818452010-07-25T07:13:50.157-07:002010-07-25T07:13:50.157-07:00Looks like we have a troll in denial. You just kee...Looks like we have a troll in denial. You just keep shorting till you make it to the poorhouse troll baby. Gary_UK will be there waiting for you. LOLAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-80817747804714767612010-07-25T06:58:05.811-07:002010-07-25T06:58:05.811-07:00WTF are you talking about- higher highs and higher...WTF are you talking about- higher highs and higher lows in the indexes. Unbelievable the crap that is spewed from this blog. Only fools pay for this kind of garbage. Only in Amerika. HahahaAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-90361531760877997992010-07-25T06:43:46.918-07:002010-07-25T06:43:46.918-07:00Ha you know that will never happen G-man. They wil...Ha you know that will never happen G-man. They will just disappear till the next correction. Of course Gary_UK will be broke from option poisoning.<br /><br />I guess he's not laughing so much now.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-77853679664638988802010-07-25T05:52:39.429-07:002010-07-25T05:52:39.429-07:00Now that all indexes are back to making higher hig...Now that all indexes are back to making higher highs and higher lows I think there are a few trolls out there that owe me an apology for all the abuse they dished out :)Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-32066016172989114622010-07-23T23:08:00.511-07:002010-07-23T23:08:00.511-07:00I am saving some cash so I can play the eventual b...I am saving some cash so I can play the eventual break in the treasury bubble. <br /><br />Gary, to me the treasury market offers excellent short opptys as an ETF like TBF can go up several hundred percent over the long term with a break in the treasury market. It is one place that being short can yield this type of return. <br /><br />Mitchfubsy_cooterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03468090772088504646noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-77662427604950569772010-07-23T23:04:25.973-07:002010-07-23T23:04:25.973-07:00My view shows a bear flag in Gold for the near ter...My view shows a bear flag in Gold for the near term which allies with Gary's notion that gold will be bottoming in the week or so. Long term, I can't see anything that looks like a topping pattern and believe like most on this board that corrections are to be bought. I will be adding appx 15% exposure to the miners in my accounts. This will put my precious metals exposure to appx 70%. <br /><br />Mitchfubsy_cooterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03468090772088504646noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-69048714486361909212010-07-23T19:12:51.867-07:002010-07-23T19:12:51.867-07:00I'd say you are just impatient :)I'd say you are just impatient :)Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-13012232634928170602010-07-23T18:34:29.690-07:002010-07-23T18:34:29.690-07:00Even with this huge rally, PM's hardly budged....Even with this huge rally, PM's hardly budged. Stupid investments I'd say.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-65704399362906642952010-07-23T17:56:01.126-07:002010-07-23T17:56:01.126-07:00The trolls clearly envy Gary to no end. You'd...The trolls clearly envy Gary to no end. You'd think a Prechter fan would just follow him, rather than try to badger Gary.<br /><br />These rubes should go ask Prechter about his failed calls since as far as I can remember.<br /><br />Whether it pans out or not, only an idiot would have his main focus on shorting gold. Go to wrong-way TK's site if you want to pick tops and bottoms to long-standing trends.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-24761728985938099842010-07-23T17:23:52.244-07:002010-07-23T17:23:52.244-07:00Since the Prechter article in inaccessible without...Since the Prechter article in inaccessible without a login, it's hard to know what he has to say about commodities and precious metals (fwiw, I agree silver has not yet confirmed further bullish action in gold). <br /><br />But the broader commodity space hasn't exactly screamed deflation, either. <br /><br />To use a popular bellwether, copper appears to be basing rather than falling apart. The Sept. contract hit 2.74 on June 7 (a month before the SPX low). Since then, it has made a couple of higher lows and three higher highs (with a lower high mixed in).<br /><br />http://www.commoditycharts.com/ccharts.asp?sym=HGU0&showcc=yesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-52305485299108107722010-07-23T16:32:05.867-07:002010-07-23T16:32:05.867-07:00Has Gary every claimed to be an expert? perhaps a...Has Gary every claimed to be an expert? perhaps at weight lifting or climbing, which he probably is, but I have never read any post of his where he claims to be an expert..perhaps you could enlighten us. <br /><br />You're just upset because Gary has made many more correct calls than your boy Prechter. You are probably upset that you are not making any money with your boy Prechter while Gary's subs are doing quite well. Instead of having Gary debate the EW nonsense why don't you just trade/invest on Prechter's calls and see how much money you make. Or did Prechters info have you lose your trading account? You still short gold waiting for $600.00 to cover? LOL....maybe one day he will get something right that may make you some money.<br /><br />good luck.Natanarchisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17320547998312593082noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-8568033506590164462010-07-23T16:10:38.016-07:002010-07-23T16:10:38.016-07:00Prechter is not a carbon-based lifeform? News to m...Prechter is not a carbon-based lifeform? News to me. <br /><br />However his biology is arranged, he was wrong (or early, or late) in February '10:<br /><br />http://blogs.wsj.com/source/2010/02/09/prechter-predicts-nowhere-will-be-safe/<br /><br />At the same time, he was fabulously wrong being bearish on bonds (an odd call for a deflationist):<br /><br />http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-prechter-its-the-end-of-the-world-2010-2<br /><br />He was also wrong (or early, or late) in Nov. '09 (I seem to recall him recommending leveraged shorts this time around, though I can't find the citation)<br /><br />http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/367008/Bob-Prechter:-Bear-Market-Rally-Is-Over,-Stocks-Headed-For-New-Lows<br /><br />For my money, Prechter is at his most valuable when he sheds his permabear skin and calls a bottom (March '09). Otherwise, bear markets just happen to coincide with his predominant views, and reading them doesn't represent much in the way of a trading edge. <br /><br />His views on gold have never shifted from bearish, so an actual decline in gold will vindicate him in a stopped-clock-being-right-twice-a-day sense.<br /><br />Since he tend to get the most press when the market is down and the media are seeking bearish confirmation, he's a better fade than anything, though that's more a reflection on public sentiment than on Prechter. <br /><br />FWIW.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-49334756055078641042010-07-23T15:56:13.133-07:002010-07-23T15:56:13.133-07:00Anon-
Your link to the Precter article takes one t...Anon-<br />Your link to the Precter article takes one to a LOG IN page with no access!!Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10940888740944629300noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-12674819682705473302010-07-23T15:45:09.255-07:002010-07-23T15:45:09.255-07:00Thoughtful article from Robert Prechter
Gary clai...<a href="http://www.elliottwave.com/subscribers/subsonly/20-questions-with-deflationist-robert-prechter.aspx" rel="nofollow"> Thoughtful article from Robert Prechter</a><br /><br />Gary claims to be some kind of expert. I think that compared to Prechter, he is merely a bipedal carbon-based life form. Let's hear some of Gary's scholarly refutation of Prechter's thoughts: in particular, the commodity index quandary and the non-confirmation by other precious metals.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-64224131522267267322010-07-23T14:30:53.888-07:002010-07-23T14:30:53.888-07:00Diamond bottom on GDX? Time and price action will ...Diamond bottom on GDX? Time and price action will tell.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-25953890306350857472010-07-23T13:38:19.363-07:002010-07-23T13:38:19.363-07:00Could be. The first bear flag breakdown didn't...Could be. The first bear flag breakdown didn't fulfill its potential, perhaps the second one will. There are a lot of cross-currents at the moment. Momentum indicators on TLT are rolling over, and a double top might be in place (close below 98 would switch the trend). Equities appear to still be in rally mode. $USD's big bounce this week has been completely reversed. Etc. Etc.<br /><br />$GOLD above 1205 would put it above the 20dema for the first time since the July 1 breakdown, which is no guarantee it will stay there, of course. Above 1215-1220, I agree, is where the bulls want to be.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-20955952613719155742010-07-23T13:20:36.101-07:002010-07-23T13:20:36.101-07:00gold could move up to 1205 and still be in this be...gold could move up to 1205 and still be in this bear flag. I bet if it closed 1 or 2 days above 1200 and stayed in the bear flag, it would be the perfect set up to draw in new longs to wipe out with one last big move down running stops to 1130-1150 or so. that would be a perfect set up to cover short position and go long. A close above 1215 or so would be a good indication that the bull was back. So if you short at 1205 with a $10 stop at 1215, a move down to 1155 is a 5R profit. Not bad in my book.Blakehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08650600450661791461noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-12044087403208020402010-07-23T13:03:08.653-07:002010-07-23T13:03:08.653-07:00Must be looking at a different gold chart. 1185 he...Must be looking at a different gold chart. 1185 held, as it has for most of the day. Nice cover, Blake. <br /><br />Maybe lower next week, who knows.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-48463194412149252882010-07-23T13:01:01.332-07:002010-07-23T13:01:01.332-07:00Strong finish for a strong week on the Russell. Hi...Strong finish for a strong week on the Russell. Higher high and higher low on all the major equity dailies.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-70724463121920513562010-07-23T12:48:15.194-07:002010-07-23T12:48:15.194-07:00Ouchie ouch!!!!!
Breaking below 1185......
Ugly ...Ouchie ouch!!!!!<br /><br />Breaking below 1185......<br /><br />Ugly week next week for longs.<br /><br />trollAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-74688069217523241802010-07-23T12:29:50.749-07:002010-07-23T12:29:50.749-07:00Closing out gold here very near the low of the day...Closing out gold here very near the low of the day does not look good at all technically. <br />RUT-ROE!!!!!!<br />We will see where equities close. <br />I would not be long gold over the weekend.<br /><br />troll<br /><br />Longies must still be napping. I know they are hoping this is only a dream.......-73 bucks from the high. Really not a good sign.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-25022472212458428782010-07-23T12:22:37.763-07:002010-07-23T12:22:37.763-07:00I actually just closed my gold short for about 9 p...I actually just closed my gold short for about 9 points of profit. I think this bear flag has one more move to the top, around 1205 or so before it breaks down to put in the final low. I am going to look for a move back to 1205 to put my short back on.Blakehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08650600450661791461noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-71247541103735547502010-07-23T12:17:05.903-07:002010-07-23T12:17:05.903-07:00I agree lowtax, it is not aimed at gold, but every...I agree lowtax, it is not aimed at gold, but every economic transaction and probably is just a precursor to VAT type tax.Natanarchisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17320547998312593082noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-85402420824362937442010-07-23T12:09:55.879-07:002010-07-23T12:09:55.879-07:00Nat, thanks for the link on the 1099 forms. I ran ...Nat, thanks for the link on the 1099 forms. I ran across that on Zerohedge a day or two ago - very annoying to say the least. Pretty amazing power grab by Congress to see where every bit of money goes. I don't think it's aimed at gold though - I've read that it's a prelude to a VAT tax. Regardless, I suppose this will push even more people to other countries and the black market to transact their PM purchases.LowTaxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01099351857921241386noreply@blogger.com