tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post7423300660562993599..comments2023-10-29T02:04:09.499-07:00Comments on Smart Money Tracker: IT'S 2007 ALL OVER AGAINGaryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comBlogger25125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-43837672399676688952010-05-04T12:37:31.617-07:002010-05-04T12:37:31.617-07:00I really like your extensive stock reviews and how...I really like your extensive stock reviews and how you have the charts. It reminds me a lot of another stock market newsletter I am subscribed to from bullrally.com. I will definitely keep reading your posts. Thanks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-33493281246646428822010-04-13T19:45:34.808-07:002010-04-13T19:45:34.808-07:00This market wont correct because everyone is expec...This market wont correct because everyone is expecting it. Period. Sideways market at best for the bears. Go long.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-50648081874914018452010-04-13T16:25:46.997-07:002010-04-13T16:25:46.997-07:00The stock markets will be ripe for a decent correc...The stock markets will be ripe for a decent correction that will scare the bejesus out of everyone only when we stop hearing references to "the crisis," and when we start seeing 1800s being bandied about as an S&P target on Y! Finance and other mainstream sites. Put to Call ratios be damned!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-26464846925173945982010-04-13T16:04:37.417-07:002010-04-13T16:04:37.417-07:00It seems to me that most of the world is ready for...It seems to me that most of the world is ready for a correction - but the US keeps rejecting it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-61125895831381840412010-04-13T12:35:36.033-07:002010-04-13T12:35:36.033-07:00Gary,
Anon at 9:57 AM makes a good argument that h...Gary,<br />Anon at 9:57 AM makes a good argument that hyperinflation is not possible without raising wages.<br /><br />How do you counteract?Mickeynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-47261104830809785472010-04-13T09:57:25.216-07:002010-04-13T09:57:25.216-07:00Hyperinflation is impossible without a means to tr...Hyperinflation is impossible without a means to transmit the rise in prices into wages. Because of the huge decline in union representation since the 70's, along with the threat of outsourcing, hyperinflation isn't mathematically possible. There are several other factors that affect the rate of inflation. For instance, hyperinflation depends upon an increase in the VELOCITY of money. Excessive inflation is ONLY sustainable when wages are linked to the rate of inflation, as they were in Zimbabwe, Weimar Germany, and the US in the 70's. Politicians will not pursue policies that yield high inflation because that would cause political order to quickly COLLAPSE. That's definitely not in their best interests. "Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-91321888807751948812010-04-13T09:52:46.930-07:002010-04-13T09:52:46.930-07:00For all of us - please respond Gary.
I trade fore...For all of us - please respond Gary.<br /><br />I trade forex not the equities - and am having a real hard time with conflicting views here. As 'we' the forex community see it - Interest rates across the board are rock bottom and the world economy is only now starting to show signs of STRENGTH. As countries start to raise rates..economies IMPROVE etc...the U.S has less % outstanding debt/GDP than nearly every other country out there! - What kind of timeline could you possibly put on your 'doomsday scenario' - In my opinion the next 3-5 years will look great in the U.S compared to everywhere else - hence..more investment etc...No?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-23523210132760983432010-04-13T09:49:16.150-07:002010-04-13T09:49:16.150-07:00Gary-
Thanks for taking one for the team yesterda...Gary-<br /><br />Thanks for taking one for the team yesterday and taunting the market gods to bring on a correction in the miners! Can you up your position to around 50% so the decline can really get cooking? :)<br /><br />Gaps are now begging to be filled down under.Jayhawkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06180238054191226687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-3291631045612412682010-04-13T08:02:34.854-07:002010-04-13T08:02:34.854-07:00The price of real estate is irrelavant to whether ...The price of real estate is irrelavant to whether or not we have hyper-inflation.<br /><br />Hyper-inflation is caused by a governement going so deeply in debt they have no recourse but to print willy nilly or default.<br /><br />I don't think anyone would argue that the US is now on this path.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-21668616780282481882010-04-13T07:57:34.445-07:002010-04-13T07:57:34.445-07:00Gary,
I think you are mis-using the word "hyp...Gary,<br />I think you are mis-using the word "hyperinflation." The price of RE is going to get crushed over the next 3 years.knifecatcherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14042774949819771257noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-79412949227393092572010-04-13T07:29:33.158-07:002010-04-13T07:29:33.158-07:00Record exports of lumber to China. Read that build...Record exports of lumber to China. Read that building code changes in Shanghai and elsewhere now allow frame construction.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-12704861712205422552010-04-13T07:22:59.217-07:002010-04-13T07:22:59.217-07:00"...could this be a seasonal move in that the..."...could this be a seasonal move in that the weather is warming and people are outside building and doing home improvement?..."<br /><br />I don't think so, as Home Depot and Lowe's sales have been terrible; there has been nothing but falls in their business.<br /><br />I think the price increases are a result of commodity speculation, fueled by cheap Fed money/credit.jgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-33348975234959471442010-04-13T06:38:20.782-07:002010-04-13T06:38:20.782-07:00How many times must I repreat that we are the same...How many times must I repreat that we are the same person?Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-59474431382710114682010-04-13T06:36:04.777-07:002010-04-13T06:36:04.777-07:00Somebody is copying somebody:
http://www.goldscen...Somebody is copying somebody:<br /><br />http://www.goldscents.blogspot.com/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-7196337919561313842010-04-13T03:37:37.381-07:002010-04-13T03:37:37.381-07:00jg,
I noticed the same thing with regards to lumb...jg,<br /><br />I noticed the same thing with regards to lumber prices. However, could this be a seasonal move in that the weather is warming and people are outside building and doing home improvement?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-89611811555841691662010-04-12T22:54:48.740-07:002010-04-12T22:54:48.740-07:00jg,
I too see the inflation you're talking ab...jg,<br /><br />I too see the inflation you're talking about. I'm seeing it in raw materials (electronics, hardware, etc) that my business uses. I don't know how the government cooks up their "non-inflation" outlook but inflation is there.Marchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13935848992860543227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-37701603042478713902010-04-12T22:23:49.759-07:002010-04-12T22:23:49.759-07:00Good job! I won't go as far as to say you are ...Good job! I won't go as far as to say you are absolutely spot on, but you have been right in predicting this reversal. <br />Your scenario on oil is indeed very possible, although I would consider property bubble bursting as an alternative contributory cause to the up coming sharp correction. <br />Please don't stop blogging, because this is one of the most decent financial blogs around.<br />CheersSamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09715678862231929238noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-62148359023670649012010-04-12T20:06:46.308-07:002010-04-12T20:06:46.308-07:00great post, Gary, even if it does give me the heeb...great post, Gary, even if it does give me the heebee jeebies.pimaCanyonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09477196225992507658noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-18943233527977977542010-04-12T17:11:46.620-07:002010-04-12T17:11:46.620-07:00I agree with your read of inflation/deflation, Gar...I agree with your read of inflation/deflation, Gary.<br /><br />There are smart folks on the other side, who think falling prices are coming, due to continued contraction of credit/loans.<br /><br />Yes, credit/loans are contracting, but, to me, that only means the things that folks buy via loans -- homes, businesses -- will fall in price. The things that folks buy largely via cash -- food, gas, other essentials -- will remain immune to the contraction of credit/loans, I think.<br /><br />Man, kiln dried 2x4s are getting expensive; one month ago, I could pick them up for $2.20 at Home Depot (six months ago they were $1.99). Now, they are $2.65 each.jgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-49010019247013765432010-04-12T15:35:15.791-07:002010-04-12T15:35:15.791-07:00Something screwed up on the SoS table.
Blocks tra...Something screwed up on the SoS table.<br /><br />Blocks trades for SPY (south of -$200M toward the end of the day) ends up at -$32M by the 5 p.m. update. The screwed up part is the volumes (31 up vs. 63 down). Those are cumulative tallies. In other words, most of the trades that produced the -$200M print are missing from the final tally. Either they screwed up earlier, or they're screwed up now, or I'm missing something. <br /><br />http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mflppg-moneyflow.htmlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-54610872708430323672010-04-12T15:08:20.002-07:002010-04-12T15:08:20.002-07:00I don't think the market has ever held up with...I don't think the market has ever held up with sentiment at the current levels so I doubt we make it to May.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-37067412212389818602010-04-12T15:05:10.312-07:002010-04-12T15:05:10.312-07:00Gary,
as I mentioned here a few posts ago I believ...Gary,<br />as I mentioned here a few posts ago I believe the market is doing a walkover without correction. I think we could very well get to the last rush higher without any setback. Once this rally then corrects, I'd be very careful to pick a bottom and buy back in. At this level or the coming level it might very well be all this rally has to offer. I think April and May can continue without major setback (more than 2pct), but if it corrects in the early summer months, to then bank on another run up before the fall, I don't know...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-78525922218404355032010-04-12T14:19:44.812-07:002010-04-12T14:19:44.812-07:00Hey Gary,
Its not just the Fed, although they are...Hey Gary,<br /><br />Its not just the Fed, although they are certainly out of control, it is most central banks. There is global specualtion in asset prices that will fuel the next leg up, not just US speculation. Anyway, I agree with your insights, I'm just wanting to emphasize the global nature of the current paradigm...avoid deflation at all costs. I also think there is a chance that central banks are moving toward a global currency, and are doing this by conciously choosing the path of destruction of current fiat currencies in order to concentrate power. I hope I'm wrong. <br /><br />Mitchfubsy_cooterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03468090772088504646noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-60661300739990872402010-04-12T14:01:46.402-07:002010-04-12T14:01:46.402-07:00I'm going to go with a continuation of the inf...I'm going to go with a continuation of the inflation theme until oil collapses the economy again. Then we'll get another short bout of deflation followed by even more printing. At some point a currency is going to break...maybe the dollar. <br /><br />Either way I expect when this is over the dollar will no longer be the worlds reserve currency.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-75282596461449109872010-04-12T13:57:45.952-07:002010-04-12T13:57:45.952-07:00Gary says - I think Ben has clearly proved his poi...Gary says - I think Ben has clearly proved his point that in a purely fiat monetary system deflation is a choice, not an inevitability.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />"I think you are 3 years early on this call Gary. First we will have deflation before some sort of hyperinflation, or at least inflation that will become out of control." I dont think we will have a 300 point parabolic top such as you describe.Quality Stockshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03991003470403043295noreply@blogger.com