tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post7486402373148780290..comments2023-10-29T02:04:09.499-07:00Comments on Smart Money Tracker: WHY CAN'T THE POLITICIANS UNDERSTAND WHAT IS REALLY HAPPENING WITH UNEMPLOYMENTGaryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comBlogger258125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-10925311112714677032010-09-18T20:16:02.912-07:002010-09-18T20:16:02.912-07:00A reader of Mish's blog sent in this email to ...A reader of Mish's blog sent in this email to him...<br /><br />"...this seems to mean that the government can sell vast quantities (1 -2 trillion per year) of debt directly to the FED and to other parties with few observable short or intermediate term consequences...If I am missing something, what is it?"<br /><br />Mish went on to give his list of consequences. Mish also opined that (near and intermediate term) inflation was not one of those consequences.<br /><br />And yet what is interesting to gold bulls on this blog is what Mish did *not* say. He missed one important consequence - currency debasement leading to the loss of confidence in the US dollar.<br /><br />Even if the Fed actions do not inflate consumption or credit, currency debasement will drive gold higher.<br /><br />Link to article here...<br />http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/09/one-sided-policies.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis+%28Mish%27s+Global+Economic+Trend+Analysis%29RAnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-69450262338856695482010-09-18T07:04:57.539-07:002010-09-18T07:04:57.539-07:00there will be no crash, short term. The reason .....there will be no crash, short term. The reason ... 3 words. Mid Term Elections. <br /><br />PeterAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-19976025978985417052010-09-18T01:37:14.149-07:002010-09-18T01:37:14.149-07:00Recent quote by George Sorros “Gold is the only ac...Recent quote by George Sorros “Gold is the only actual bull market currently. It just made a new high yesterday. In the present circumstances that may continue,” he said at a Thomson Reuters Newsmaker event.<br /><br />“I called gold the ultimate bubble, which means it may go higher. But it’s certainly not safe and it’s not going to last forever,” he said.<br /><br />Actual article...<br />http://etfdailynews.com/blog/2010/09/15/george-soros-warns-gold-is-the-ultimate-bubble-gld-gdx-gdxj-sgol-ugl-dgl-dgp-iau-dzz-gll-ubg-dgz/RAnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-9698500872250965752010-09-18T00:03:52.495-07:002010-09-18T00:03:52.495-07:00Oh and by the way, I am not American, but giving p...Oh and by the way, I am not American, but giving people the benefit of the doubt is an Ammerican quality I greatly admire!RAnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-56989413755847464782010-09-17T23:44:44.575-07:002010-09-17T23:44:44.575-07:00Yup, I am with Nat. A stock market crash will prob...Yup, I am with Nat. A stock market crash will probably be followed by more stimulus and PMs will make even more record highs :-)<br />Alternatively, crashes will lead to lower asset values, which then affects balance sheets, which may then lead to defaults. Same result for PMs. So I am not too worried.<br /><br />Reflecting back on my, highly profitable buy and hold experience with real estate vs. trading in the stock market, I thought I could make more money faster doing the latter. I could use shorts if the market goes down - something I could not do with physical real estate. I can use stop loss orders and position sizing to manage risk that I could not do with real estate. The stock market was much more liquid and I could go in and out almost at will.<br />After several years, I realised that I vastly underperformed my real estate investment. Maybe it was down to my lack of skill because if you compare me to some of the guys on this blog - I look like a bumbling novice.<br />Then I also realised that even if I had reasonable skill, I will still not become as wealthy this way simply because of the inherent limitations of things like position sizing. The very things about trading that I thought were advantages are really limitations to making big money.<br />With Gary's help, I began to remember that without committing larger sums of capital, the payoff is also less. I also remember Jim Rogers who claims that he is the world's "worst market timer". He says you make money buying things cheap and holding for years.<br />So the strategy is to buy and hold. But this only works in a secular bull. Stocks are no longer in a secular bull. How about gold?<br /><br />The questions then are 1. Is gold in a bull market? 2. How do I know when to get off? This is where Gary's blog comes in and this is why I am doing Old Turkey!RAnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-11839585619790156512010-09-17T20:09:52.799-07:002010-09-17T20:09:52.799-07:00I meant " I have learned NOT to worry about t...I meant " I have learned NOT to worry about the wiggles on the charts."Natanarchisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17320547998312593082noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-42943502712546427482010-09-17T20:07:56.292-07:002010-09-17T20:07:56.292-07:00Gary UK...put it all on red 10...haha..just kiddin...Gary UK...put it all on red 10...haha..just kidding. <br /><br />I think folks will give you the benefit of the doubt as Americans are apt to do this. I don't trade the stock market so I am not too worried about a crash. Even if it did, I am of the opinion that it wouldn't hurt Gold/Silver anywhere near as much as the '08 crash. You might want to take into account the large banks that have/will be closing their Gold/Silver trading. JPM for example. Plus with Anglo buying back its hedges and the fact that swap dealers are essentially neutral will keep a strong bid to Gold/Silver. I have learned to worry about the wiggles on the charts. Just my thoughts. But like many I am Old Turkey for the most part with the PM's. <br /><br />And Frank and Fina has some good Mexican food. Gary's business alone guarantee's they will be around for another 30 years..haha.Natanarchisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17320547998312593082noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-87683090665498996022010-09-17T19:15:34.447-07:002010-09-17T19:15:34.447-07:00GaryUK,
We all make mistakes - key is to learn fr...GaryUK,<br /><br />We all make mistakes - key is to learn from them :-)<br /><br />And I have learnt from mine - not to trade the gold bull market. I have learnt also not to confuse genuis with a bull market. <br />Thank goodness I am no genius and I can still make money!<br /><br />I have elected to go Old Turkey. I do not have to fuss over day to day wiggles. I make more money that way than in past where I had to manage risk with position sizing.<br />Over the past decade, I have made substantial sum of money in real estate. I committed huge capital at the right time (during recessins), then wait for years, and at the right time (when govt get s nervous about rising home prices) exit with huge profits.<br />Then I had a epiphany with Gary's help - why can't I do the same with the PM market? Of course I can!RAnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-40085538328885535252010-09-17T18:50:33.571-07:002010-09-17T18:50:33.571-07:00Thanks RA, appreciate the branch (as long as I don...Thanks RA, appreciate the branch (as long as I don't have to stick it anywhere painful!!). I asked for the abuse, really so unlike me. Never again, I live and learn.<br /><br />Still up, hyped over what I think next week brings. Just one guy I keep an eye on (so bright hard to believe)...It is bearish sorry :)<br /><br />Please have a look though...<br /><br />http://screenr.com/Y9nGary Morganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09934552877086935070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-34707100824668791112010-09-17T18:44:40.249-07:002010-09-17T18:44:40.249-07:00GaryUK,
Welcome back! Here is the olive branch (f...GaryUK,<br /><br />Welcome back! Here is the olive branch (figuratively speaking of course).<br />I echo the sentiments of some of those on this blog in that your change in tone and substance of content is much appreciated.<br />I welcome contrary views as it might make us aware of our blindside, and helps us become better investors.<br />The purpose here is to make money and not win arguments :-)<br /><br />And speaking of purpose of this blog, thanks to the poster who reposted Gary's mission statement. I felt we were going off track with some of the posts that did not focus on riding the bull, got sidetracked with daily wiggles and and tried trading the stock market. I felt that if we can stick with the original intent of this blog, it would be much appreciated. Just my view anyway :-)RAnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-41880658175801342772010-09-17T17:06:55.479-07:002010-09-17T17:06:55.479-07:00Investors Intelligence is the exact opposite. Too ...Investors Intelligence is the exact opposite. Too bearish. This is why one needs a lot more than 1 sentiment gauge. <br /><br />Dumb money confidence is still in the neutral range. <br /><br />I expect the AAII poll will time the move into the half cycle low but look for the II poll and dumb money confidence to time the top of the intermedate cycle.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-82620427658634142862010-09-17T17:03:45.712-07:002010-09-17T17:03:45.712-07:00Gary
What is your dumb money sentiment reading?
...Gary<br /><br />What is your dumb money sentiment reading?<br /><br />The swing in AAII is astounding.<br /><br />http://www.zerohedge.com/article/aaii-confirms-completely-bipolar-market-records-biggest-monthly-bearish-bullish-swing-6-yearaviat72https://www.blogger.com/profile/16729507895807002085noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-63956861205880630282010-09-17T16:58:48.927-07:002010-09-17T16:58:48.927-07:00There’s a locals place not far from where I live F...There’s a locals place not far from where I live Frank & Fina’s. It’s been here for like 30 years. I went last night as a matter of fact :)Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-67323329868475860742010-09-17T16:57:45.580-07:002010-09-17T16:57:45.580-07:00Gary, thanks and no hard feelings.
I am a big Hol...Gary, thanks and no hard feelings.<br /><br />I am a big Hold'em fan, so will visit Vegas one day, soon if the next 6 weeks pans out for me..the World Series main event maybe?<br /><br />So, we'll call it a £ for now ( worth more than a pesky dollar!), but if I visit, dinner would be fine, I also love Mexican.<br /><br />Apologies again, it has been a stressful 2 months, not like me at all to be snarky. No one is perfect, I realised today I was being an ass, and drew the line.<br /><br />Now, I am off to bed, it is 1am!<br /><br />Best wishes.Gary Morganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09934552877086935070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-75484049680456506232010-09-17T16:51:46.598-07:002010-09-17T16:51:46.598-07:00Gary, which "cantina" is your favorite. ...Gary, which "cantina" is your favorite. Need to know for my next trip. (We always stay Downtown at the Nugget.)Driverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09669844990891398319noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-2233332395139635552010-09-17T16:38:15.430-07:002010-09-17T16:38:15.430-07:00Gary,
The change in tone is much appreciated. As l...Gary,<br />The change in tone is much appreciated. As long as one remains civil I don't think anyone here will object to anyone posting contrary opinions. <br /><br />If one feels strongly about their position instead of becoming abusive just put money on the table. The standard bet size is $1 :)<br /><br />However if one ever plans on coming to Las Vegas I am prepared to up the stakes to dinner at the local Mexican cantina.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-45165440130167659092010-09-17T16:25:44.498-07:002010-09-17T16:25:44.498-07:00Gary_UK,
A certainly appreciate the change, both ...Gary_UK,<br /><br />A certainly appreciate the change, both in tone and in substance. I happen to disagree (or at least feel you are being recklessly premature), but the nature of your most recent post is a huge improvement over the ones that preceded it.<br /><br />Couple things:<br /><br />- There's been trouble brewing in Europe all year. At times the market has cared, at others it has not. The problems in the European banking sector, as well as the fiscal disaster that is the PIIGS, are widely known. <br /><br />- VXX is a terrible vehicle to hold, though you've picked a decent enough spot to take a trading flyer. I assume you're aware of the contango issues it shares with USO, UNG, etc., which make it a guaranteed loser over time (esp. with a mean-reverting underlying like volatility). Overlay a year's chart of VXX dailies with those of the $VIX. Caveat emptor. <br /><br />- I don't think verifying your trades through Gary is necessary. You've announced them in more or less real time, that's good enough for those who care to follow them. <br /><br />- I wonder if you spent much time on SOH or any of the other bear blogs after the initial bounce out of the March '09 lows. The tone of your post is ominously reminiscent. It really is best to know you have a bear market before you trade it as such. <br /><br />Thanks again for adopting a more civil and content-oriented approach to posting. <br /><br />- RBAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-71390815968482439152010-09-17T16:21:40.582-07:002010-09-17T16:21:40.582-07:00DG,
I read a lot. I'm not being funny, or sa...DG, <br /><br />I read a lot. I'm not being funny, or sarcastic, but I just googled 'gold sentiment', and found this...<br /><br />http://www.marketwatch.com/story/contrarian-take-on-gold-market-2010-09-01?reflink=MW_news_stmp<br /><br />But do the same, look for contrarian views and evidence, there are dozens of articles and sites you can find, if you want to look.<br /><br />I'm off to bed now, past midnight here, but I'll look in tomorrow, or feel free to post questions on my (frankly so far very poor effort at a ) blog!Gary Morganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09934552877086935070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-59291438454722739712010-09-17T16:09:57.937-07:002010-09-17T16:09:57.937-07:00Gary UK: What indicators tell you that the sentime...Gary UK: What indicators tell you that the sentiment on gold is too bullish? Data not anecdotes, please.DGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15668568316531084679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-79625733220093334692010-09-17T16:08:05.972-07:002010-09-17T16:08:05.972-07:00Gary_UK, part 2 of post..
There is trouble brewin...Gary_UK, part 2 of post..<br /><br />There is trouble brewing in Europe, spreads are stretching, it will provide 'greasy oil' to cause the crash to accelerate, but it will be driven by the same big banks who have driven it up in the past 9 days. (reasons on my blog).<br /><br />I admit I jumped in too early with shorts, but my puts are all long-dated, and I have enough margin (just) to cover large leveraged postions. My plan is to make a large enough sum to retire. I could lose 60% of my wealth, but that wouldn't affect my lifestyle, I have a decent income from my business.<br /><br />I will come back and admit I was wrong if I am, but for me, that was the top today, we only go down, maybe to a key fib level at 880 on S&P, by the end of October.<br /><br />I do think Gold and silver will correct, as I read that there has been distribution on recent rallies, and generally sentiment is far too bullish, it needs a correection now, I think to 1060 for Gold, 16ish for silver.<br /><br />So, who will be right then?<br /><br />I look forward to reading any debate, have a good weekend, and apologies again.<br />Oh, I also bought a six-figure ££ of VXX today, it looks a screamig bargain.<br />Finally, some will doubt my assertions re my trading, I am happy for Gary or someone to view my trading screen live via webcam at the end of October.<br />If I am wrong I will be wiped out at any S&P price north of 1145, unless I trim heavily, which I don't want to do with the crash so close.<br /><br />Hope this all helps, have a good weekend!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-45084265205822516932010-09-17T16:07:10.184-07:002010-09-17T16:07:10.184-07:00Gary_UK back again.
Firstly, I acknowledge that m...Gary_UK back again.<br /><br />Firstly, I acknowledge that my tone has been sometimes not a good one here, but I feel I was a little provoked.Sorry! No more. I will just present my contrary view to help debate, as that is what blogging is all about. A clean sheet, if you will all permit it.<br /><br />Here is a dollar chart I just did...<br />http://www.screencast.com/users/Gary_UK/folders/Jing/media/c2104a74-99e5-4b42-a41e-06ba534bde76<br /><br />I think Bollinger band stretch, a rising 200day MA, and trendline support cause a fair size bounce, starting on Monday actually. Can I recommend http://www.freestockcharts.com/<br />for doing charts, and it really is free.<br /><br />Today was a bearish reversal day on the markets, a push to new highs (only out of hours though), and then closing near the lows, the same shape candle as on 21st June, just before we lost 11% in 9 days.<br /><br />So, watch out next week, in my opinion.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-90134275661643972292010-09-17T16:01:14.247-07:002010-09-17T16:01:14.247-07:00Gary has made available for free his "mission...Gary has made available for free his "mission statement" from the June 28th newsletter. Here it is in case anybody needs to refocus or be reminded of his objectives at this site:<br /><br /><i>Let me say this again for any new subscribers and for those that may need reminding. My main goal with this newsletter for the next few years will be to keep investors focused on riding the secular gold bull.<br /><br /> <br /><br />Most of the time that is going to be boring as hell. There just isn’t going to be anything to do for long periods of time as we wait for a C-wave to run its course. I think most of us have learned our lesson by now that trying to trade the volatile PM sector is mostly a sure fire way to underperform if not actually lose money. I’ve been doing this for a long time and I can tell you unabashedly that I can’t do it. Every time I think gold should pull back it rockets higher. And just about the time I’m convinced it’s ready to soar we get a correction. Support levels get broken only to recover. Breakouts sometimes follow through and sometimes not. A precious metal bull will do everything in its power and violate every logical technical analysis to shake people off. Like I said, virtually untradeable unless you happen to be the luckiest person in the world. And even if you are that person you will never reap the full glory of the bull simply because trading strategies demand strict risk control and limited position size (even smaller than normal due to the PM sectors volatile nature). That unfortunately isn’t a recipe for huge gains.<br /><br /> <br /><br />What I do know is that if you can ignore the wiggles and forget about trying to time moves you will make a load of cash during this bull. So my main focus will be keeping as many people on board as possible during C-waves. If I think a C-wave is coming to a close I will do my best to exit. Subscribers can choose to follow me or not. It really makes no difference as you can buy the very top of a C-wave and still do just fine during this bull as it still has a long way to go.</i>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-79426455011578142322010-09-17T15:40:20.364-07:002010-09-17T15:40:20.364-07:00There are numerous places where the Lower Bollinge...There are numerous places where the Lower Bollinger band was touched. Mopst of them just signalled a continuation down. <br /><br />You've also drawn your trend line incorrectly. It shoul be drawn from the Dec. low to the April dip. We now have a broken trend line and an ongoing 1-2-3 reversal. So far the bounce to test the highs has been very weak. A move below 80 will confirm the trend reversal and the dollar collapse will be on.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-40433038871193658922010-09-17T15:34:58.709-07:002010-09-17T15:34:58.709-07:00By the way: if you turn your screen 180°, you can ...By the way: if you turn your screen 180°, you can almost see the USDindex graph :) but i think EUR/USD is easyer to track and to work with.Rodnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-45071830823111191682010-09-17T15:28:33.060-07:002010-09-17T15:28:33.060-07:00Euro isn't weak.
Euro just closed a "8 d...Euro isn't weak. <br />Euro just closed a "8 day" cycle. <br /><br />please look at this image:<br /><br />http://img213.imageshack.us/img213/3108/eurocycles.jpg<br /><br /><br />There are four cycles, lasting from 38 to 42 hours, starting from 9/9/2009 9:30 (GMT+1).<br /><br />Every time a cycle close, it cross the SMA of the cycle itself. It will sometimes slightly cross it, usually it bounce on it.<br /><br />The 4 cycles start are marked by a blue arrow. You can draw a trendline between them. <br />Crossing of this trendline from above is the "close long", and if you are brave enough to go against trend, the short signal. Bouncing or crossing the SMA of the closing cycle (red arrow) is COVER signal. Crossing again the faster SMA will be the LONG signal.<br /><br />i usually DO NOT long on bounce, you can't know, but only guess, that there is not a higher cycle closing.<br /><br />That is the situation as i see it: if on Sunday night EUR/USD do not cross again the 320SMA on \15 min timeframe, Euro will start the second "8day" cycle, fist daily cycle, second intermediate cycle of a yearly cycle.<br /><br />What does it mean? It means about (a little less) 4x40 hours of rising almost without retracements. Only a european nation's bankrupt can stop this. The target i have for this intermediate is 1.39-1.40.Rod_ITnoreply@blogger.com