tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post7517885786711882139..comments2023-10-29T02:04:09.499-07:00Comments on Smart Money Tracker: TRANSITION COMLETEGaryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comBlogger162125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-38651518156091180452011-05-12T13:13:19.632-07:002011-05-12T13:13:19.632-07:00WES,
If you get a moment, could you shoot me an e...WES,<br /><br />If you get a moment, could you shoot me an email? It's on my profile.<br /><br />Cheers.Polyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01101104361466256156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-50250834388497781872011-05-12T13:12:12.783-07:002011-05-12T13:12:12.783-07:00Wes: I agree with that, but I think a sudden burst...Wes: I agree with that, but I think a sudden burst and acceleration of enthusiasm is also noteworthy. Yes, the majority is right for months during a bull, but the extreme call interest didn't happen here until the gains were giddy on the upside, I think.DGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15668568316531084679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-40875259840044640162011-05-12T13:12:12.784-07:002011-05-12T13:12:12.784-07:00I would also submit that we are not in a bull mark...I would also submit that we are not in a bull market in silver right now. <br /><br />By any conventional definition we are in a bear market -- maybe a cyclical bear within a secular bull, but a bear nonetheless. <br /><br />That said, I'm rooting for you.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03084833038198767100noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-65552675850751177982011-05-12T13:08:13.850-07:002011-05-12T13:08:13.850-07:00Cory,
I can understand your "fade the crowd&...Cory,<br /><br />I can understand your "fade the crowd" attitude, but I'll bet that the crowd is correct most of the time.<br /><br />The crowd isn't stupid. On this blog, for instance, the vast majority were correctly bullish on silver for weeks and weeks.<br /><br />It's at the turn that the crowd is almost always wrong. But, if you know where the turn is, what do you need the crowd for ?Weshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17674078449364685370noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-1663472568822025682011-05-12T13:04:13.023-07:002011-05-12T13:04:13.023-07:00No worries, DG.
I thought of going long at the s...No worries, DG. <br /><br />I thought of going long at the same time. Honestly, probably the main reason I didn't is because I'm afeard of wash repercussions--I need those recent losses to remain losses.Vondahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14031956057127780539noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-22819203907887552502011-05-12T13:00:46.140-07:002011-05-12T13:00:46.140-07:00I agree Cory. I've waited patiently for a day...I agree Cory. I've waited patiently for a day like this to add some silver miners. We have easy stops in place with either the dollar, silver or gold. Also a divergence in the miners and the metal price also could be constructive.<br /><br />Gary has been wrong before and he could be wrong here although I do appreciate his input.JDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00734398719867623127noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-83677142330198911642011-05-12T13:00:46.141-07:002011-05-12T13:00:46.141-07:00SB, great point. I think I'd be slow buy ZSL a...SB, great point. I think I'd be slow buy ZSL as a short nowhead scratcherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04538631797389460806noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-16872995993172286572011-05-12T12:58:32.924-07:002011-05-12T12:58:32.924-07:00I have a style of trading that is not for everyone...I have a style of trading that is not for everyone. I firmly believe the only way to make money in this game long term is to buy bull markets when everyone else is scared. I try to find the "run the stop" days that come at cycle lows, and if I'm wrong I'm wrong and I sell. Those are actually the lowest risk days when you look back at it, and you can rarely tell it's one of those days unless that's all you look for. The signature is always well-above average volume right below a support or pivot.Coryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17477198911420346894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-56144207251492166182011-05-12T12:58:32.925-07:002011-05-12T12:58:32.925-07:00When I was in the business (like 100 years ago) a ...When I was in the business (like 100 years ago) a colleague of mine referred to "the cost of coming in to work every day" because he'd come in, watch the market all day, and wind up doing something because he couldn't watch it all day without wanting some action. The trades he pushed for were generally losers. I will at worst have as much capital as I have today for the A wave. Just sayin'...DGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15668568316531084679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-32853603806200119692011-05-12T12:55:58.042-07:002011-05-12T12:55:58.042-07:00SLV down $1...lost half its retracement...too many...SLV down $1...lost half its retracement...too many headfakes to know direction...hope Mr M is right about closeGlennhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03992256634704964270noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-4433972654213483422011-05-12T12:54:16.115-07:002011-05-12T12:54:16.115-07:00Miyagi,
I'm staying long but cut my position ...Miyagi,<br /><br />I'm staying long but cut my position in half. I think IF it is going to bounce this is a time to take a shot.<br /><br />The only thing is that according to my indicators the market still has lower to go which should pull down silver, however a strong reversal like this usually leads to a couple of days of strength as many sellers are taken out.JDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00734398719867623127noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-32573257798728097862011-05-12T12:50:45.671-07:002011-05-12T12:50:45.671-07:00B ganoosh,
Sorry, I was looking at silver over 34$...B ganoosh,<br />Sorry, I was looking at silver over 34$ and SLV over 33$ but far below 34$.MrMiyagihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00771323172230571918noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-24287300942453115752011-05-12T12:50:45.672-07:002011-05-12T12:50:45.672-07:00ZSL reminds me of how painful it is to be right an...ZSL reminds me of how painful it is to be right and still not make money.<br /><br />I think it was Eamonn that asked why I'd short the double long SSO rather than go long a double short etf. ZSL's behavior today is the answer, if one shorted AGQ they did better than 2x SLV's decline (3x to be exact), while ZSL might not even close positive.Shalom Bernankehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16590351870092138098noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-2597235314169769432011-05-12T12:49:14.973-07:002011-05-12T12:49:14.973-07:00BG,
SLV is very short term (daytrade) oversold, it...BG,<br />SLV is very short term (daytrade) oversold, it should end above 34$ unless a last minute selloff happens.MrMiyagihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00771323172230571918noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-7323938696879457452011-05-12T12:45:41.653-07:002011-05-12T12:45:41.653-07:00OK... if SLV can't close above 34.. then I'...OK... if SLV can't close above 34.. then I'm out at EOD.JDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00734398719867623127noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-36050807394586743422011-05-12T12:41:50.948-07:002011-05-12T12:41:50.948-07:00jhnewman, I share your thoughts too.jhnewman, I share your thoughts too.head scratcherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04538631797389460806noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-29105830241601500832011-05-12T12:40:37.183-07:002011-05-12T12:40:37.183-07:00Cory,
As the saying goes, you only have to get r...Cory, <br /><br />As the saying goes, you only have to get rich once. <br /><br />If I was sitting on 20 million burritos, I'd be trading small through the D-wave. <br /><br />You will turn that into 100 million easy during the next A-B-C cycle. No need to be a hero right now.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03084833038198767100noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-17145814753955201022011-05-12T12:40:37.184-07:002011-05-12T12:40:37.184-07:00Looking at all my charts, and intermarket stuff, i...Looking at all my charts, and intermarket stuff, it sure looks like we're undergoing a big Turning Point today, one that argues we're still in the C-Wave.<br /><br />Big Picture: It looks like early last week, because of perceived problems with Greece (and rumors they might be exiting the Euro), money fled from the "Risk On" trade (Euro, stocks, commodities, gold/silver) to the "Risk Off" trade (dollar, Treasury bonds).<br /><br />[My understanding is that at different times, gold'silver can be part of the "Risk On" trade OR the "Risk Off" trade.]<br /><br />The perceived problems in Greece made the Euro go down, which made the dollar go up, which made commodities and stocks and PMs go down. And at the same time, the Powers That Be decided to give the PMs an extra kick by demanding 5 margin hikes in 2 weeks. (Come on! If they were really doing this for LEGITIMATE reasons, they would've had 1 or at the most 2 margin hikes. 5 absolutely shows that they were doing this primarily to stop the silver and, by extension, gold, locomotives. "Oh, 1 and 2 didn't work. Let's try 3. Nope, 4 should do it. Damn! Still hasn't done it. OK, 5 should screw the longs. Ahhhhh -- sweet victory!!!!").<br /><br />Anyway, "Risk Off" started last week. Today, it looks like "Risk On" is coming back on. It looks like the Euro is going to go back up, and therefore the dollar down. It looks like commodities and stocks are going back up too. And it looks like gold and silver are going back into their uptrend as well.<br /><br />I would bet that the Euro, silver and GDX all put in lows today, and that gold put in its low last Thursday. And I would bet that Gary's original scenario is still going to play out: the dollar catching fresh long stops on the way down, causing a runaway train that crashes through the recent floor, and gold going to 1720 -1750 by the 3rd or 4th week in June, with GDX breaking out to new highs, and dragging silver to new highs as well.<br /><br />*****Of course, I add my usual caveat: THIS COULD ALL BE ABSOLUTELY DEAD WRONG.***** (I'm not watching end of day action here, and, for all I know, my thesis may already be dust.)<br /><br />I'm just saying, please try to watch the charts with "unbiased eyes" (if that's possible), otherwise, you might be missing a good opportunity to make back some profits that were lost the last 2 weeks.<br /><br />And if this thesis does come to fruition, it'd make me very happy to know that I might've helped some people here, all of whom have helped me SO MUCH. After all, that's the basic philosophy behind Gary's Incredible Site -- to help other people with his high-level trading expertise. And I believe in his enlightened philosophy 200%.<br /><br />I gotta run. Might be gone for a few days. <br /><br />*****Again, I have to WARN everybody: everything I just said might be the purest wishful thinking on my part. And if it is, I hope you won't throw tomatoes at me next time I show my face here. ;^)<br /><br />Wishing good luck to EVERYBODY here!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-73660895915615746252011-05-12T12:39:25.940-07:002011-05-12T12:39:25.940-07:00The ZSL Mystery
ZSL calculates its NAV at 7:00AM...The ZSL Mystery <br /><br />ZSL calculates its NAV at 7:00AM Eastern Time.At that time its official NAV was 24.28 and it was pretty much trading at that price. <br /><br />To get the price differential you need to look at the 7:00AM price of the SI futures and then make the calculations. This is really confusing, but for them to price the swaps they need some trading desk to work with them.<br /><br />http://www.proshares.com/media/documents/ProSharesCommodityCurrencyProspectus.pdf<br />Go to Page 15. <br />Net Asset Value<br />The NAV means the total assets of a Fund including, but not limited to, all cash and cash equivalents or<br />other debt securities less total liabilities of such Fund, each determined on the basis of generally accepted<br />accounting principles in the United States, consistently applied under the accrual method of accounting. NAV is<br />calculated at the following times:<br />Fund NAV Calculation Time<br />ProShares Ultra Silver 7:00 a.m. (Eastern Time)*<br />ProShares UltraShort Silver<br />ProShares Ultra Gold 10:00 a.m. (Eastern Time)*<br />ProShares Short Gold<br />ProShares UltraShort Gold<br />ProShares Ultra DJ-UBS Commodity 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)<br />ProShares UltraShort DJ-UBS Commodity<br />ProShares Ultra DJ-UBS Crude Oil 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)<br />ProShares UltraShort DJ-UBS Crude Oil<br />ProShares Short DJ-UBS Natural Gas 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)<br />ProShares Ultra Euro 4:00 p.m. (Eastern Time)<br />ProShares UltraShort Euro<br />ProShares Ultra Yen 4:00 p.m. (Eastern Time)<br />ProShares UltraShort Yen<br />ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF 4:15 p.m. (Eastern Time)<br />ProShares VIX Mid-Term Futures ETF<br />* For silver and gold this time may vary due to differences in when daylight savings time is effective between<br />London and New York. The actual times equate to noon London time for silver, and 3 p.m. London time for<br />gold.<br />The NAV is calculated as described under “Description of the Shares; the Funds; Certain Material Terms of<br />the Trust Agreement—Net Asset Value (“NAV”)” for more detai<br /><br />https://accounts.profunds.com/etfdata/PFA_DailyHoldingsSilver_web.csv<br /><br />PORTFOLIO HOLDINGS INFORMATION,,,,,,,<br />AS OF 5/12/2011,,,,,,,<br />Fund Name,Fund Ticker,Fund Identifier,Security Description, Shares/Contracts , Notional Value , Market Value ,NAV<br />ProShares Ultra Silver,AGQ,74347W841,Silver Forward,46739800.00,1518901390.01,null,null<br />ProShares Ultra Silver,AGQ,74347W841,SIN1 Future,373.00,60901575.00,null,null<br />ProShares Ultra Silver,AGQ,74347W841,Net Other Assets / Cash,789765821.91,null,789765821.91,150.431184<br />ProShares UltraShort Silver,ZSL,74347W643,Silver Forward,-46585500.00,-1513886788.07,null,null<br />ProShares UltraShort Silver,ZSL,74347W643,SIN1 Future,-111.00,-18123525.00,null,null<br />ProShares UltraShort Silver,ZSL,74347W643,Net Other Assets / Cash,766004879.98,null,766004879.98,24.283411aviat72https://www.blogger.com/profile/16729507895807002085noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-65036886773972978842011-05-12T12:36:44.009-07:002011-05-12T12:36:44.009-07:00In contrast to 3 hours ago where there were 1630 b...In contrast to 3 hours ago where there were 1630 buyers and 840 sellers, there's 1440 buyers and 1105 sellers for SLV.MrMiyagihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00771323172230571918noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-88922978524660539742011-05-12T12:29:30.380-07:002011-05-12T12:29:30.380-07:00Cory,
my thinking too, but I think I'll stay ...Cory,<br /><br />my thinking too, but I think I'll stay put. The moves have become too violent for me. <br /><br />What would you do if there's another -10% or more premarket? Just saying, because you mentioned all in on AGQ.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-40838650221248959632011-05-12T12:28:18.631-07:002011-05-12T12:28:18.631-07:00This is the ultimate bull and a final MONSTER run ...This is the ultimate bull and a final MONSTER run over a couple of weeks would be the ultimate signature of it!jammerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09636625689551182976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-88753733316094264922011-05-12T12:26:36.442-07:002011-05-12T12:26:36.442-07:00Sandy101,
Not sure how all this is going to play o...Sandy101,<br />Not sure how all this is going to play out in the short term but it seems to be on the downtrend.<br />I'm not an analyst or a shrink but I feel that maybe there are still some holding on to SLV hoping for rebound, maybe they bought more today to "average down".<br />If, if, if, the price of silver/gold continue downwards tomorrow, a whole whack might just give up and sell off, that would cause a panic slide like last we saw.<br />On the other hand, maybe I'm an idiot and the price will go to 48$ next week.<br /><br />Again, grain of salt, bla bla.MrMiyagihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00771323172230571918noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-10365846804273416362011-05-12T12:26:36.443-07:002011-05-12T12:26:36.443-07:00We will just have to see how this plays out. Gary&...We will just have to see how this plays out. Gary's insight in terms of the bull throwing off riders prior to a big up is still in play.<br /><br />If correct, the straddle strategy should work well.jammerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09636625689551182976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-51960672875132570802011-05-12T12:20:08.718-07:002011-05-12T12:20:08.718-07:00Did anyone who follow's Beanie's blog noti...Did anyone who follow's Beanie's blog notice how bullish he was on SLV at the VERY top? Just sayin'JRealityhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11457037908790198417noreply@blogger.com