tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post8955963239611676666..comments2023-10-29T02:04:09.499-07:00Comments on Smart Money Tracker: PORTFOLIO CHANGEGaryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comBlogger497125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-32024044229855609192011-02-06T10:46:56.231-08:002011-02-06T10:46:56.231-08:00David,
Paulson was bullish on the market in 2010....David,<br /><br />Paulson was bullish on the market in 2010. He could have basically bought anything and it would have gone higher, and he would be right.<br /><br />The fund assets were denominated in gold is what i remember reading. That gave it a further booze.Chris Beaniehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04251024125518218874noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-80218172787940432392011-02-06T10:16:26.462-08:002011-02-06T10:16:26.462-08:00Beanie,
You are being willfully obtuse.
John Pau...Beanie,<br /><br />You are being willfully obtuse.<br /><br />John Paulson's 2010 performance the result of massive investments in gold and gold companies.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03084833038198767100noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-21554181113353276152011-02-06T10:15:29.189-08:002011-02-06T10:15:29.189-08:00Deficits do matter, everybody can admit that, even...Deficits do matter, everybody can admit that, even a junior high school student. But it's always when it will cause us big problems. Anybody that shorted our markets because of perceived deficit problems 50-100 years ago would have been broke a thousand times over.Chris Beaniehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04251024125518218874noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-87265047745672114482011-02-06T10:14:43.508-08:002011-02-06T10:14:43.508-08:00NEW POSTNEW POSTGaryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-60210944765223739052011-02-06T10:09:27.245-08:002011-02-06T10:09:27.245-08:00Jeremy Grantham was actually bearish for almost a ...Jeremy Grantham was actually bearish for almost a year since the market bottomed in 2009. Only a year later (april 2010) he said that the fed's money printing could take the market higher, only to crash again (presumably by October 2010). <br /><br />John Paulson, coming out of nowhere, has dominated all hedge funds for the last 4 years. He is bullish on the economy and the market.Chris Beaniehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04251024125518218874noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-52763438105413315472011-02-06T10:03:19.225-08:002011-02-06T10:03:19.225-08:00PressurePointPivots weekly update completed
http:...PressurePointPivots weekly update completed<br /><br />http://pressurepointpivots.blogspot.comDanielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04297491804149184129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-2112101370517717072011-02-06T08:37:02.259-08:002011-02-06T08:37:02.259-08:00Nat -
The cost of the Model T in 1914 was about ...Nat - <br /><br />The cost of the Model T in 1914 was about $360, which is on the lower end of my example of $850 to start and $260 to end. I was showing that it was unaffordable whan it first came out, and a luxury later. The price in 1914 compared to today's dollars is very affordable today.<br /><br />Nice try.<br /><br />feel free to come over to my blog and I can continue to help educate you on the reality of the system in which we live. I think you know what it is, and I agree with you, we just disagree on the conclusion....Tim and Jeanenehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13794459652080924135noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-2263603311663593892011-02-06T07:52:50.106-08:002011-02-06T07:52:50.106-08:00@ JD..Robertson Davies was a very interesting man....@ JD..Robertson Davies was a very interesting man..I miss listening to him as well, but at least we have his writings. That quote was from a PEN conference back in the 80's he spoke at and he was just brilliant.Natanarchisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17320547998312593082noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-21950352233877125702011-02-06T07:48:47.301-08:002011-02-06T07:48:47.301-08:00T/J
Thank you for the exercise. I often shake my...T/J <br /><br />Thank you for the exercise. I often shake my head at people that can't consider the alternative viewpoint: They get stuck in an ideology and defend it no matter what. <br /><br />I believe humans are prone and can fall easily for that kind of thinking, so I try to remind myself to look at and consider other sides and different points of view. I sometimes look for "gold's going to sub $500" kind of articles and see if they have any validity. Sometimes they scare me, but they always turn out to reinforce my views because they are often illogical. <br /><br />You've helped me reinforce my views as well. <br /><br />Gold bugs views follow a logic and Austrian Economics might as well be called Common Sense Economics.<br /><br />And remember, it doesn't matter what you believe, it matters what the majority believe, and what history has shown to be true. If they believe debt matters, then it does, even if not believing could save the world.<br /><br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i32LUZdljIsMovax2https://www.blogger.com/profile/13460772592874274109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-67149454199011286602011-02-06T07:48:41.316-08:002011-02-06T07:48:41.316-08:00jeff and redwine..you guys pretty much nailed it. ...jeff and redwine..you guys pretty much nailed it. One year after the FED and the start of the assembly line manufacturing as well as raising wages far above the norm..that even pissed off Fords investors... But Ford proved he was right. <br /><br />good for you two for spotting what should have been obvious...except Wikipedia doesn't provide those answers which is why Tim missed it and went in another direction.Natanarchisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17320547998312593082noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-48070320709746976592011-02-06T07:43:24.650-08:002011-02-06T07:43:24.650-08:00I find it...interesting that otherwise intelligent...I find it...interesting that otherwise intelligent people can become distracted or sidetracked by a complex theory. All one needs is a little commonsense.<br /><br />"deficits don't matter as long as a country can print it's own currency"<br /><br />Any reasonably intelligent high school student could use just a little commonsense and figure out that's pure nonsense. <br /><br />Just the act of counterfeiting money doesn't service debt. There will be a price to pay if a country goes down this path.<br /><br />A nation that falls for the myth that deficits don't matter will run larger and larger deficits under the false assumption that they can be serviced with the printing press. <br /><br />However counterfeiting money has consequences. It causes inflation. The larger the deficits become the faster the government has to run the printing press to service it and the higher the inflationary pressures become. <br /><br />As we should all know inflation is a hidden tax on everyone. It's a tax the government can levy without any representation.<br /><br />The higher deficits become the more heavily the population is taxed by inflation. At some point unless the government comes to it's senses the inflation tax will spiral out of control and drain the population of all their savings (hyperinflation).<br /><br />So when I hear statements like deficits don't matter I have to wonder is commonsense dead in this country. They most certainly do matter. They matter very much and they have always mattered throughout history.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-84027513379759014982011-02-06T07:40:22.687-08:002011-02-06T07:40:22.687-08:00"So let me leave with you a quote from author..."So let me leave with you a quote from author Robertson Davies.."<br /><br />Boy, I miss him. Quite a mind. Morons/barbarians rule now. sigh.JDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02740450114040168007noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-3681962444870035902011-02-06T07:38:11.514-08:002011-02-06T07:38:11.514-08:00J & T
Concerning your drivel about being prod...J & T<br /><br />Concerning your drivel about being productive or investing in productivity and not stuffing money into the mattress. Besides being reminiscent of Soviet or North Korean propaganda it's utter nonsense.<br /><br />The main reason the world is awash in over 400 trillion USD of derivatives is people chasing returns to stay ahead of debasement. The reason for our predicament is malinvestments.<br /><br />The debasement hasn't led to more and higher productivity only more and higher speculative frenzy and more idiotic consumption of natural resources and investment products. It's resulted in the growth of a huge financial industry that just shuffles paper around and gets bailed out instead of imploding while doling out billion dollar bonuses.High 5https://www.blogger.com/profile/16815415405352412071noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-27943847336054205162011-02-06T07:33:43.634-08:002011-02-06T07:33:43.634-08:00@ T & J..
It just dawned on me after reading ...@ T & J..<br /><br />It just dawned on me after reading some more of your posts...you remind me of the Soviet Academicians I debated in Leningrad in the mid 80's...they made their system work with numbers that were not refutable..yup the numbers all added up and mathematically they were correct. However, Humans are not a math problem. And the ruble was a 100% FIAT currency. It was also a reserve for other Soviet Bloc countries. Funny thing though..their system collapsed, totally and completely. And just like you, and the proponents of MMT..all socialists by the way,- this irrational fear of freedom is what they struggled with. <br /><br />Then I started thinking that this MMT is nothing more than an updated version of Irving Fischer and his work the Purchasing power of Money. Keynes basically ripped this off when he proposed his "General Theory" key words being...pay attention...General and Theory...meaning not exact and not fact. <br /><br />By the way, Mises refuted Fischer in 1912. You might want to re read Mises. <br /><br />Interesting, both Fisher and Keynes were socialists...weird eh? <br /><br />And please stop with your up is down, left is right, night is day nonsense about those who reject MMT as the doom and gloomers...it is the Socialists who are the doom and gloomers. Like you, they fear a world or society without government..because on no .."who will protect me" even though we have REAL world examples happening right before our eyes proving this fear is nonsense. <br /><br />I was right the first time you posted on this blog. MMT is nothing but State Socialist economics and will not survive for any length of time in the real world. And I don't fear this...I welcome it. In fact I can't wait.Natanarchisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17320547998312593082noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-7154618203459003642011-02-06T07:23:46.568-08:002011-02-06T07:23:46.568-08:00Nat
1913 Federal Reserve Act?Nat<br /><br />1913 Federal Reserve Act?High 5https://www.blogger.com/profile/16815415405352412071noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-35091440800527545412011-02-06T07:16:49.228-08:002011-02-06T07:16:49.228-08:00gary
has everything, maybe since ww2, been geared...gary<br /> has everything, maybe since ww2, been geared towards 2 incomes? therefore been a leap and a gamechanger on the american people somewhere along the way?JEFFtheFLEAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08858365650846884513noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-19052308487194786772011-02-06T07:12:07.435-08:002011-02-06T07:12:07.435-08:00natan
just a stab at your point. Is it that he...natan<br /> <br /><br />just a stab at your point. Is it that henrey ford started his revolutionary manufacuring and also raised salarys without gov intervention and created real production?JEFFtheFLEAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08858365650846884513noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-39584454087218056762011-02-06T06:42:57.156-08:002011-02-06T06:42:57.156-08:00Book,
I've said all along that I will exit all...Book,<br />I've said all along that I will exit all PM positions when I think the C-wave has come to an end.<br /><br />I will probably look for some sector that is extremely extended to sell short during the move down into the yearly cycle low this summer (not PM though. I never short a bull market.)Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-52880308928831474782011-02-06T06:42:28.105-08:002011-02-06T06:42:28.105-08:00@T & J
well you gave it the old college try, ...@T & J<br /><br />well you gave it the old college try, you get credit for that. <br /><br />Your response to my post about the model t means nothing. I didn't use 1908 as a year. I didn't refer to 1925 and I didn't make reference to dollar costs between any years. I used hours worked to buy the car at that time 1914 (the year was picked for two reasons..can you figure it out) and asked if a factory worker today could but a car for the same number of hours worked. You selectively picked two years I didn't mention, made this wonderful academic nonsense comparing two years I didn't refer to and then patted yourself on the back. Can I live in that delusional world as well. Or where do you get the drugs that you take..I will try some. <br /><br />maybe if you paid more attention to reading comprehension in elementary school you wouldn't make these mistakes. <br /><br />So let me leave with you a quote from author Robertson Davies.." all you academics...back, back, back to your ivory towers and leave the real world for the rest of us"Natanarchisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17320547998312593082noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-25823644482672011162011-02-06T06:39:12.196-08:002011-02-06T06:39:12.196-08:00Gary,
Lets play make believe and pretend that the...Gary,<br /><br />Lets play make believe and pretend that the markets move as you believe they will this spring/summer. Gold has a major move, the dollar hits a three year low and stocks start to move lower. <br /><br />At some point in that movement will you be selling your PM stocks and shorting the general stock market? Are you always looking for the next opportunity in market movement? I'm trying to lay out my future game plan is why I ask. I want to ensure that I won't need to be looking for an additional newsletter to follow the next moves. Obviously at some point this PM bull is going to be over and the big opportunities will lay elsewhere.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00486534305812171636noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-40693874866051045722011-02-05T20:57:08.068-08:002011-02-05T20:57:08.068-08:00I can't figure it out yet...but it is either J...I can't figure it out yet...but it is either Justin or Anon1...or both. I am guessing Justin...only he had the time to blog for hours on end.Keyshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01980184575351995254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-82588088584502471942011-02-05T20:56:20.244-08:002011-02-05T20:56:20.244-08:00Tim,
I appreciate your contribution here and the ...Tim,<br /><br />I appreciate your contribution here and the thoughtfulness you bring to this topic. But I can say that I myself am somewhat leery of statistics. Someone earlier posted the well-known saying, "there are lies, damn lies, and statistics." I personally think there is a lot of truth to that, and Wall Street and Government data which seems to show a disconnect with real life only reinforces that belief. <br /><br />Thus from my observation, which according to your previous posts observations don't seem to be of much value to you, is that life is harder now on folks than it was in recent years. I happen to live in a very affluent area and am a pastor of a decent sized church where I see and feel the needs of a large group of people. And what I can tell you is our church right now gets MUCH more requests for help to meet financial needs from people in the community than it ever has in the past 10 years. (Interestingly, the requests we get most often are for food, gas, and rent, so we keep gas cards and grocery store cards on hand). Our members are also financially struggling more so than at any time over that same period. <br /><br />All that seems to validate for me that there is a disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street and government statistics. The government tries to hide inflation and dull the economic impact its monetary policy is having. Of course that's just one man's perspective...but one man who is involved in the lives of many, many people.<br /><br />Now am I a doom and gloomer? No I'm not. On the contrary, I have tremendous confidence. But that confidence isn't born out of an implicit trust in this system we live in, but it's born out of my trust in God. That might be offensive to some, but that's the truth. <br /><br />And so while I sincerely appreciate your input, I remain unconvinced by the statistics you provided. Perhaps if wages and employment were keeping up with money printing things would be different and they would be easier to accept, but as it stands that's not the case.<br /><br />Nevertheless, I do appreciate the dialogue. <br /><br />All the best!wingmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13080334185833869898noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-31495584141100015552011-02-05T20:51:29.432-08:002011-02-05T20:51:29.432-08:00Galloping Inflation.
I'd like to iterate, cot...Galloping Inflation.<br /><br />I'd like to iterate, cotton yarn has risen 60% in the past 12 months, and independently, polyester has risen 60% in the past 12 months.<br /><br />These are major components of clothing, and nearly all fabrics for every use.<br /><br />It is the 60% number that stuns me. My reality is not the reality I hear from anyone here. The game has changed. <br /><br />As I studied Weimar as best I could with the information accessibility of 1984, I will never forget the parabolic curve which places us now at middle 1922, having moved up from early 1922. This would leave only one year left, at most, before the climactic end of Weimar. <br /><br />So, this is an additional point on the PM "C" intermediate wave that Gary invests by.<br /><br />I'm saddened in advance, personally, for the many elderly who worked diligently their lives and who are holding Treasuries, bonds and savings accounts. They will be knocked off their curent economic station and will drop to the bottom. <br /><br />Like Gary and Jim Rickards, I see no option but to watch runaway inflation manifest.Slumdoghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03364132794238101607noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-63131140352040171432011-02-05T20:16:16.278-08:002011-02-05T20:16:16.278-08:00Ravi -
I will continue the debate on my blog at ...Ravi - <br /><br />I will continue the debate on my blog at seeking alpha if you really want to get into it.<br /><br />Today the poorest spend 20% of their income on food. 75 years ago it was over 50%.<br /><br />While it is painful no doubt, they are still better off being poor today than being poor 75 years ago.<br /><br />See you over at SA if you want to continue.....Tim and Jeanenehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13794459652080924135noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-45908491537964748372011-02-05T20:06:05.594-08:002011-02-05T20:06:05.594-08:00http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/how-u-s-incom...http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/how-u-s-income-groups-get-squeezed-by-food-prices/<br /><br /><br />Tell the bottom 30-40% of people who spend 20-40% of their income on food and gas. I am sure they are really happy that there is no inflation.<br /><br />Ravirkphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00040276098503669352noreply@blogger.com