tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post2117074825284484904..comments2023-10-29T02:04:09.499-07:00Comments on Smart Money Tracker: LEFT TRANSLATED CYCLES ARE BAD NEWSGaryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comBlogger267125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-19428138674102615692011-06-30T12:40:43.007-07:002011-06-30T12:40:43.007-07:00Big BoW on GLD today, tops the list.Big BoW on GLD today, tops the list.William Wallacehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00404327612332368010noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-477565273526950132011-06-29T09:05:48.502-07:002011-06-29T09:05:48.502-07:00Check out the dollar chart - it's starting to ...Check out the dollar chart - it's starting to look like the daily cycle<br />might be rolling over earlier than we thought without making new highs - that would change many of our assumptions - on a weekly chart it especially looks like that could be true.Erikhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04036428674606629816noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-62996226737308863812011-06-29T09:04:03.939-07:002011-06-29T09:04:03.939-07:00Check out the dollar chart - it's starting to ...Check out the dollar chart - it's starting to look like the daily cycle<br />might be rolling over earlier than we thought without making new highs - that would change many of our assumptions - on a weekly chart it especially looks like that could be true.Erikhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04036428674606629816noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-45514191694670081142011-06-28T05:35:57.012-07:002011-06-28T05:35:57.012-07:00Oh ok. That's a nice day out for himOh ok. That's a nice day out for himhead scratcherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04538631797389460806noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-70256890007868179332011-06-28T05:31:53.293-07:002011-06-28T05:31:53.293-07:00Toby stays on the ground :)Toby stays on the ground :)Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-45899352506573786272011-06-28T05:28:34.395-07:002011-06-28T05:28:34.395-07:00Gary, when you are climbing, do you ever worry tha...Gary, when you are climbing, do you ever worry that Toby could fall out of the bag?head scratcherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04538631797389460806noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-30994640860033786322011-06-28T05:23:42.354-07:002011-06-28T05:23:42.354-07:00Got it. Alright, time to go shred what's left...Got it. Alright, time to go shred what's left of my rotator cuffs.PSThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17140695419506102560noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-58555638846914911112011-06-28T05:18:30.126-07:002011-06-28T05:18:30.126-07:00I doubt it will sell off hard but it should move d...I doubt it will sell off hard but it should move down into an intermediate cycle low.<br /><br />It's pretty rare for anything in the investment world to move fast especially liquid assets like the dollar or the stock market. Occasionally a broken parabola will drop like a rock. But those are few and far between.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-83916152903105658032011-06-28T04:52:11.574-07:002011-06-28T04:52:11.574-07:00Just to clarify, I don't think there is any qu...Just to clarify, I don't think there is any question that the debt ceiling will be raised. It's just a question of whether the republicans get the spending cuts that they are pushing for. My point was WHEN the debt ceiling is raised in August, if there aren't signicant steps made to address the deficit, then the dollar will likely selloff hard.PSThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17140695419506102560noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-45355070227127634452011-06-28T04:48:50.879-07:002011-06-28T04:48:50.879-07:00Gary
Let's say the dollar does break the 3 yea...Gary<br />Let's say the dollar does break the 3 year trend line, then Benny announces QE3, which in turn would take the dollar lower right? Which could create a right out of the gate left translated cycle and really be bearish for the dollar. Gold might enter a runaway move?Haggertyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823970032897380795noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-38252202463764313742011-06-28T04:46:36.071-07:002011-06-28T04:46:36.071-07:00I think the reverse would happen, if we don't ...I think the reverse would happen, if we don't raise the debt ceiling then Bernanke doesn't have to print as much money.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-87803142784666233212011-06-28T04:43:55.996-07:002011-06-28T04:43:55.996-07:00Not to belabor the point, I'm just trying to u...Not to belabor the point, I'm just trying to understand cycles better and how they coincide with macro events. It would seem that the logical prerequisite for PM's to bottom in July/August is that the dollar will begin its next daily cycle. I think the assumption is that this will happen as a result of the initiation of QE3 at the next Fed meeting in August. It is possible however, that we could see a dramatic reversal in the dollar if there is an unfavorable outcome from the debt ceiling vote in August instead. If the republicans cave and the ceiling is raised without dramatic cuts in government spending, investors will likely believe that the US doesn't have the political will to take tough actions necessary to address the deficit, and this alone could send the dollar tumbling. Any additional easing after that (should it not come in August) would only put additional pressure on the dollar.PSThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17140695419506102560noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-66976477428510413982011-06-28T04:38:13.562-07:002011-06-28T04:38:13.562-07:00The next daily cycle up in the dollar should corre...The next daily cycle up in the dollar should correspond with the final move down for gold.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-11448043841033242902011-06-28T04:36:07.670-07:002011-06-28T04:36:07.670-07:00Thanks, I'm just wondering if your still expec...Thanks, I'm just wondering if your still expecting the next daily cycle in the dollar to be as strong as you once anticipated. If so, I'm wondering how gold will be able to rally in the face of such deflationary forces.Greggy_Mhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05184259752593034062noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-43245364355924403462011-06-28T04:33:51.827-07:002011-06-28T04:33:51.827-07:00GC Aug 30min http://bit.ly/leErXJGC Aug 30min http://bit.ly/leErXJValeriobrlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14347819887629617111noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-31443305647147507052011-06-28T04:31:52.413-07:002011-06-28T04:31:52.413-07:00Greg,
As this intermediate cycle is already starti...Greg,<br />As this intermediate cycle is already starting to get stretched then yes this should be over in the next 2 to 4 weeks. Most likely with the current daily cycle bottom.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-20242403533621009682011-06-28T04:28:30.352-07:002011-06-28T04:28:30.352-07:00Gary,
So if I got this right your expecting ...Gary,<br /><br /> So if I got this right your expecting the daily and intermediate term correction in gold to end within the next 2-4 weeks? I assume that will be then end of this D wave as well, correct?Greggy_Mhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05184259752593034062noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-4919710653294237482011-06-28T04:27:13.975-07:002011-06-28T04:27:13.975-07:00Cool...Thanks Gary!Cool...Thanks Gary!NJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16914217290447137727noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-72512306478709868502011-06-28T04:20:55.277-07:002011-06-28T04:20:55.277-07:00NJ,
No I don't have a spreadsheet of all that ...NJ,<br />No I don't have a spreadsheet of all that history. The most recent history is more important to me because it encompasses current market conditions. Such as QE1 and 2 since 09 stretching many cycles.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-23873250322232797462011-06-28T03:42:05.956-07:002011-06-28T03:42:05.956-07:00Looks like we are finally getting a bounce in PMs,...Looks like we are finally getting a bounce in PMs, let's see how many days it lasts this time.Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532170043439921989noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-46023051202094069762011-06-28T03:12:18.842-07:002011-06-28T03:12:18.842-07:00Hi Gary:
Great pic of Toby and Gary! Would never h...Hi Gary:<br />Great pic of Toby and Gary! Would never have figured out who Toby was! <br /><br />Nice discussion between you and Basil yesterday regarding the average duration of cycles and the 114 year history.<br /><br />Quick question: Do you maintain any spreadsheet / any other data with this history that enables you to track outliers etc.?<br />Thanks!NJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16914217290447137727noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-81130315011662671652011-06-28T02:02:20.576-07:002011-06-28T02:02:20.576-07:00Like master like dog, both are lovely :)Like master like dog, both are lovely :)Ilovebreadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17229729778469508563noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-50754637389381125612011-06-28T01:43:35.184-07:002011-06-28T01:43:35.184-07:00Commodity-sensitive AUD currency long-term 7.x yea...Commodity-sensitive AUD currency long-term 7.x year cycle may be topping, potential trigger on move below 1. Targeting old support zones in the 0.80s. <br /><br />http://www.freeimagehosting.net/uploads/3efb1762c2.jpgAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-35336801961330682832011-06-27T22:33:25.729-07:002011-06-27T22:33:25.729-07:00Gary,
Read up on the cycles....do the vix and inte...Gary,<br />Read up on the cycles....do the vix and interest rates have a daily and intermediate cycles? Or does it not work for them.jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18212017825312097996noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7130708113832839690.post-17557648635988938322011-06-27T22:19:08.543-07:002011-06-27T22:19:08.543-07:00I think its safe to say we are definately getting ...I think its safe to say we are definately getting a bounce off the 75SMA because it looks like the true strength index has bottomed also, as it had in the previous intermediate cycle declines.William Wallacehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00404327612332368010noreply@blogger.com