Burrito bet

I do believe I'm going to earn a whole lot a burrito's :)

There will be a lot to go over in the weekend report, but basically everything is now in place for my inflationary shock in 2014 scenario, including the stock market at new highs, which has now already happened.

Portfolio Change

A portfolio change has been posted to the website.

Changing the blog

Unfortunately as so often happens with blogs that aren't purely a bear blog, the SMT has deteriorated to the point where it's mostly inhabited by trolls. The conversation has gotten to the point where it no longer serves any purpose, other than to offer a stage for the trolls to rant.

At this point I will be closing the comments section of the blog for the foreseeable future. If you want to join the discussion then you will have to be a member of the premium website from now on.

HAS QE3 ALREADY BEGUN? COMMODITIES AND GOLD MAY BE SAYING YES.

According to recent statements by Bernanke, the Fed stands ready to act with further easing of monetary policy (QE3) if economic conditions warrant it. But let's face it, because the Fed has never been audited we only receive the data they deem fit to publish. We know the government lies to us about inflation, unemployment, GDP, etc. Does anyone really believe the Fed is publishing true accounting numbers? I'm starting to suspect Bernanke has already begun the next round of quantitative easing. 

Politically QE is a hot potato, and impossible to publicly announce. But there have been enough hints (the last FOMC minutes maybe the loudest) that it is clear that Bernanke intends to print. Hey, we are in a currency war after all, and one can't win the war if you don't shoot your guns!

First case in point. The CRB exploded out of its three year cycle low in June just as I had predicted. Oil is already knocking on the door of $100 a barrel again. Grains in many cases have rallied 50% or more and show no signs of reversing. As a matter of fact, the CRB is showing no inclination to even retest the summer bottom. The complete failure up to this point of commodities to retest the three year cycle low is of itself a warning bell that something has changed. I think we can all agree that the global economy didn't all of a sudden ratchet into high gear, creating a surge in demand. Barring that, the only thing that would generate this kind of explosive move without even a hint of a correction would be another round of massive liquidity injections.

Another odd development is the action in bonds. A month and a half ago the bond market started to discount the inflationary surge as commodities launched out of their three year cycle low. Mysteriously, two weeks ago, interest rates started to tank. 

One has to ask themselves, who in their right mind would be buying bonds with a negative yield in a rapidly accelerating inflationary environment? 

This sudden reversal in interest rates is another warning bell, in my opinion, that QE3 may have already begun, and Bernanke is already buying bonds in the attempt to hold interest rates under 2%.

The next confirmation will come from the stock market. As we have seen in the past, the daily cycle in the stock market has tended to stretch far beyond its normal timing band (35-40 days) during periods of quantitative easing. The current cycle is due to bottom right around the next Fed meeting on September 13. If stocks are still rising with no clear decline into a cycle low by mid-September that would be a pretty clear sign in my opinion that Bernanke is lying to us and QE3 has already begun.

If I am correct then the penetration of the three year cycle trendline by the dollar index on Friday is going to be a harbinger of hard times ahead for the world's reserve currency.

As many of you may recall I've been expecting the three year cycle low in the CRB to correspond fairly closely to a top in the three year cycle on the dollar index. So far the rally out of the May 2011 three year cycle low has been very weak. The dollar still isn't close to moving above the 2008-2011 three year cycle high, and has now formed a monthly swing. 

The dollars three year cycle is now at risk of having topped in only 14 months in a left translated manner. If so, this greatly increases the odds that we will see the dollar index fall below 72 and probably below 70 by the time the next three year cycle bottoms in mid-2014.

If the dollar's current daily cycle continues to drop all the way into the FOMC meeting on September 13, then it will be unlikely we see any significant corrective action in commodities or stocks for the next two weeks, and at that point I am going to seriously entertain the idea that the Fed is lying to us and has already begun the next round of bond purchases.

The big question though, is how do we invest based on this possibility? 

First off one doesn't want to be short if there is even the slightest risk that the Fed has resumed bond purchases. Second, one has to ask themselves which sector stands to benefit the most from another massive increase in liquidity? 

The obvious answer is commodities. But most commodities have already rallied quite significantly as we've seen with the grains and energy. That doesn't mean there isn't more upside, I'm sure there is. But I think much larger percentage gains are going to be made in the precious metals as price and breadth are still quite depressed in this sector.

The metals are now set to "catch up" as traders take profits on some of their other commodity positions that have already generated large gains, and look to put that capital back to work in undervalued areas with more upside potential (precious metals, especially miners).

It's been my theory for several months now that we saw a B-Wave bottom for gold back in May.

With the recent breakout of the frustrating consolidation zone that always follows a B-Wave bottom, I think gold is now ready to begin the initial phase of the next C-wave advance.

Gold is now entering the high demand fall season. It has been my expectation that gold will generate its first test of the all time highs sometime this fall. If my intermediate cycle count is correct (explained in depth in the nightly premium newsletter) we should see a move above the A-wave top of $1800 and a rally close to $1900 by late October or early November. At that point the intermediate cycle will enter the timing band for the next corrective move, which should prevent gold breaking out to new highs

Following an intermediate degree decline in late November to mid December the breakout to new highs should occur during the next intermediate cycle this spring, followed by a retest of that breakout at the next intermediate bottom.

Yes I know these daily and intermediate cycle counts are some what complicated and beyond the scope of this short article. I do cover them extensively in my premium newsletter. Suffice it to say that cycle analysis lays a general guideline for when to expect major bottoms, and to a lesser extent tops. I like to think of it as a tool that signals when to step on the gas and when to start tapping on the brakes.  

While I don't think gold has much chance of moving above $1920 this year, conditions are definitely in place for a significant rally in the sector over the next couple of months. Miners, and silver in particular, have the potential to generate some pretty respectable gains over the next 2-3 months.

SMT premium newsletter.

Possible portfolio change

A possible portfolio change has been posted to the website.

Dollar, Stocks, CRB

Just a quick post today illustrating what I expect over the next 2 years, and the intermarket relationship between the currency markets, CRB and stocks.

Pay particular attention to the inverse relationship between the dollar index and the CRB. Notice how the CRB almost immediately began moving down into it's three year cycle low once the dollar formed it's three year cycle bottom in May 2011.

Stocks are driven by not only the dollar but to some extent by commodity prices. When commodities start to surge too high they act as a drag on the economy and consequently the stock market begins to stagnate. When commodities are falling, like they have been for the last year, it tends to act as a mild tailwind for the stock market, which explains why stocks have continued to rise for most of this year despite the dollar moving generally upwards since February.

I think I have mentioned before that virtually every recession since World War II has been preceded by a spike in oil prices of 80%-100% over a short period of time (usually a year or less).

The surge from $50 a barrel to $100 in 2007 was the straw that broke the camels back and tipped the economy over into recession, which began in November 07. A further spike to $147 a barrel the next summer guaranteed that the recession would be the worst since the Great Depression, especially considering that the real estate market and debt bubble was imploding at the same time.

Now that the CRB has formed its three year cycle low the dollar index should be at or pretty close to a final top, which should then be followed by a move down into its next three year cycle low sometime in 2014.

If the intermarket relationships continue to hold up, and I don't see why they wouldn't, then we should see commodity prices moving generally north for the next couple of years until the dollar forms its 3 year cycle low in mid-to-late 2014. At some point along the way rising commodity prices are going to begin pressuring the economy, just like they did in 2007 and 2008, and also in 2011 as the CRB surged up into its final three year cycle top.

My current guess is that we will see the stock market start to stagnate in 2013 forming a very extended rounded topping pattern. By late 2013 the stock market should be clearly in a new bear market that will begin to accelerate to the downside as commodities spike into their final top as the dollar bottoms in 2014.

At that point I expect to see a severe deflationary event as the stock market and commodities collapse, similar to what happened in the fall of 2008 and early 09. This collapse and deflationary event should be accompanied by the dollar rallying out of its next three year cycle low in 2014.

Most bear markets tend to last between 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 years so we can probably expect a final bottom in early to mid 2015.

CONGRESS ARE YOU LISTENING?

Well, it's that time again. Every two years our senses are assaulted as politicians spew an endless stream of nonsense in the attempt to garner votes from a mostly unsophisticated American population. This year the major topic, not surprisingly, is jobs. Each and every politician would like you to believe that he or she has the cure for the persistent unemployment problem.

Of course it's all completely ridiculous. You would think these people could read a history book. Never in history has government been able to legislate productivity. Governments just misallocate capital. They tax one group of people and give the money to another group of people to dig holes. Of course, once the hole is dug or the road built, that job expires. It's not a sustainable productive use of capital.

Real productivity is entrepreneurs creating sustainable companies that satisfy a human need. AAPL is a sustainable business satisfying a human need. GOOG is a sustainable productive business. XOM is a productive business. None of these companies were legislated into being by government.

Almost without exception, real progress involves creative destruction. For example, when oil was discovered the whaling industry collapsed. When the automobile was invented it destroyed equine powered transportation, and so on. The emergence of each new major technological advance, throughout the history of mankind, has caused creative destruction obsolete industries.

This is part of the normal and healthy sequence of human progress. Progress is a result of replacing inefficient technologies with ones that are not only new, but more efficient. Likewise, nations that refuse to allow this process of creative destruction are exactly the economies that stagnate and ultimately fail.

There is one way, and one way only, to cure our employment problem (and debt problem). It is the same cure that ultimately ended the Great Depression and serviced the gigantic debts that were incurred during World War II. A new technological advance that changed the world. 

The cure for the Depression and massive debt built up during WWII was the advent of two brand-new industries: plastics and electronics. These two industries created millions of jobs worldwide and spawned an economic boom from 1945 until 1966.

Now the world is back in the same position it was in 1930, and where Japan found themselves in the early 1990s. The world has created another debt bubble and we've chosen to kick the can down the road just like Roosevelt did in the ‘30s, and Japan has been doing for the last 20 years. And just like in the ‘30s, we are going to get the same result which is persistently high unemployment and generally declining global economic conditions.

What we need to do is allow human ingenuity and creative destruction to actually cure our problems. And the biggest problem the US faces today is the triple threat of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. These three entitlement programs have bankrupted the country, and let's be honest, there is no way any politician can possibly reform these programs, or even attempt to do so, and have a prayer of getting elected.

The cure to our problem is staring us right in the face. We don't need to reform Social Security, or government health programs. We need to make them obsolete.

Rather than plowing taxpayer dollars into an insolvent banking system (as the Japanese have been doing for 20 years), we need to allow capitalism to work and insolvent companies to go bankrupt. The taxpayer dollars that are now flowing into an endless black holes which are the financial system and government stimulus programs, need to be funneled into the biotech industry. Rather than fund expensive surgeries or endless treatments that only manage symptoms, we need to discover real cures for disease, injuries and aging.

Imagine if a person with an arthritic knee, instead of a $20,000 knee replacement surgery, could simply walk into the doctor's office and receive a stem cell shot that would repair and permanently cure the disease. Or, how about a permanent cure for diabetes, heart disease, and obesity?

Yes, what I'm talking about is a complete overhaul of the global healthcare system. Yes, this is going to be creative destruction on a massive scale. Many doctors that studied for years are going to be put out of business. Health insurance will become mostly a thing of the past as the modern healthcare of the future will become easily affordable by all. No different than buying an iPhone today.

Yes, some industries are going to suffer and go bankrupt, like health insurance, and a big part of the pharmaceutical industry.

But millions and millions of jobs will be created, the same as they were in the 50' & 60's with the new plastics and electronic industries, and in the 80's and 90's with the personal computer and internet. When we reach the stage when we actually cure diseases, especially as related to aging, we will eliminate the gigantic burden of the three big government entitlement programs. If people can remain healthy and active for their entire life there will be no need for Social Security benefits or Medicare and Medicaid. These programs will become a thing of the past, as most diseases, and injuries will be quickly and easily reversed or permanently repaired.

So instead of the same old nonsense drivel we get during every election, it would be refreshing if politicians understood the real problems, and the real cures, and put in place policies that would actually have long-term benefits and accelerate the transition through these dark times and into the next Golden age.

Congress, are you listening?