That's just one more tally that we can now slide over the to bull side.
We're still waiting on the two biggies. Gold still needs to break the pattern of lower lows and lower highs by moving above $1161 and the dollar needs to put in a weekly swing high as a possible sign the intermediate cycle has topped.
Go miners!!
ReplyDeleteIf this is the case, why are we still down today? Opened strong then dropped like a rock. Further the USD has done the opposite.
ReplyDeletePOINT and FIGURE!!!!!...simply unbelievable...haha
ReplyDeleteDawler up ...equities down...gold lower but buy/accumulate below 1100...
Gary, Gold in Euro currency and other currencies just hit an all time high. What's that telling us?
ReplyDeleteAnonymous said...
ReplyDeletePOINT and FIGURE!!!!!...simply unbelievable...haha
Dawler up ...equities down...gold lower but buy/accumulate below 1100.
Um, dollar up .09%, stocks down .12%. WTF is wrong with you dummy?
Gary;
ReplyDeleteI too have seen and read about the 12 trillion. I will search around to see who has mentioned numbers as large as that. However, we can use some common sense--clearly lacking in America-- to come to some conclusion.
fannie/freddie have about 5 trillion...yes 5 trillion.
"By PAUL THARP
Last Updated: 3:30 AM, March 6, 2010
Powerful lawmaker Barney Frank had to pull his foot out of his mouth yesterday.
The Massachusetts Congressman rattled investors when he said the US Treasury won’t be responsible for bailing out investors holding the more than $5 trillion of mortgage-linked securities issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — the ailing mortgage companies at the center of the junk mortgage crisis.
"Please don’t think this [debt] is federally guaranteed, I don’t think it is, I don’t think it should be, I don’t feel any obligation to bail you out," he said. In a restructuring of the firms, investors could expect a "whole range of options. . . from [being paid] nothing to a haircut to whatever."
Hours later, the Treasury rejected Frank’s views, saying it stands behind its unusual Christmas Eve pledge to back the securities with unlimited funds. After the rebuke, Frank, chairman of the powerful House Financial Services Committee, then backpedaled from his statement in hopes of cooling any possible volatility in trading next week."
Then there is Fed gov debt about 1-2 trillion, then add in State debts.then municipal debts, then unemployment and other government crap and one could easily arrive at 12 trillion. And we haven't even included what the health care nonsense will add. The problem seems to be too many people think the media and government are giving them news and information when it is nothing but propaganda.
Ben Lighyear...QE to infinity and beyond..woohoo.
here ya go..it took about 2 minutes to find this
ReplyDelete"You see the real inflationary threat isn’t the $12 trillion public debt, which on its own is serviceable. The problem is $63 trillion worth of unfunded obligations for healthcare and social security. Putting these figures in context, the U.S. government’s total liabilities are 19 times current tax receipts. “Bear in mind that the U.S. consumer is widely seen as dead in the water with debt at 1.3 times income,” says Grice."
http://blogs.reuters.com/rolfe-winkler/2009/11/10/the-inflation-time-bomb/
or here; http://www.zerohedge.com/article/lunatics-institute-international-economics-endorse-6-trillion-more-qe-cite-fred-iceman-mishk
where they mention 6 trillion..which is far more than the 1-2 trillion Anon posters regurgitate..me thinks these anons work for the government or they failed grade 3..only they can tell us for sure.
"The latest lunacy out of the Institute for International Economics notes that the dollar can and should go to negative territory courtesy of another roughly $6 trillion in Quantitative Easing. Enter Joseph Gagnon, who is obviously daring to boldly go where the Fed Chairman can only dream of going, and is set on ruining whatever is left of America's (and the world's) middle class."
When the wheels fall off we will be in deep doo doo...Its not a matter of if, it is now just when...
ReplyDeleteThis is interesting...hmmm
ReplyDeleteFrom Huffington Post:
Congress should act immediately to abolish credit default swaps on the United States, because these derivatives will foment distortions in global currencies and gold. Failure to act now will only mean the U.S. will be forced to act after these "financial weapons of mass destruction" levy heavy casualties. These obligations now settle in euros, but the end game is to settle them in gold. This is so ripe for speculative manipulation that you might as well cover the U.S. map with a bull's-eye.
U.S. credit default swaps currently trade in euros. After all, if the U.S. defaults, who will want payment in devalued U.S. dollars? The euro recently weakened relative to the dollar, and market participants are calling for contracts that require payment in gold. If they get their way, speculators on the winning side of a price move will demand collateral paid in gold.
Sorry fellow...a nice dump in gold today...dawler up equities down gold lower...this is the trade...short the yen...
ReplyDeleteOnly if one is day trading. All moving averages are rising. You are fighting every trend.
ReplyDeleteYou run the risk of getting cuaght in a gap up open if you hold overnight.
Surprises come on the upside in bull markets.
Sorry fellow...a nice dump in gold today...dawler up equities down gold lower...this is the trade...short the yen...
ReplyDeleteDollar up .02%
SPX down .19 or .02%
Gold down a chunk, BFD. Consolidating/profit taking after rising for a week. You are a freaking moron.
Gary, by what date should gold pass the 1161 mark to validate the continuation of the C wave?
ReplyDeleteLOL the market doesn't work that way.
ReplyDeleteI would like to see gold take out 1161 before this daily cycle tops but that's no guarantee it will.
It looks like the daily cycle already topped, and is looking for a cycle low.
ReplyDeleteI don't think we can make that call on only one down day that didn't even break beleow 1120 support.
ReplyDeleteIn 3-4 months the 200 would catch up to the spot. If gold falls this will happen much faster. This would make this a D-wave, even if we tread water? So May/June we should be looking for an A-Move, if C does not continue and we tread water?
ReplyDeleteYes until gold breaks the pattern of lower lows and lower highs we have to assume this is a D-wave, but one that isn't acting like any other D-wave.
ReplyDeleteSo we continue to wait.
The playbook might need some revision however this resolves ... the C-wave did not act like a proper C-wave, and if this is a D-wave, it is also not sticking to the general outline. Hard not to wonder if we might be missing something key.
ReplyDeleteThe key is that this will be the only midpoint consolidation that occured as the stock market dropped into a yearly cycle low.
ReplyDeleteOf course that assumes the C-wave continues.
Gary, all these attempts to force interpretations into C-wave or D-wave scenarios is sounding a lot like the way Elliot wave guys operate, and we know how you feel about that. You're only going to be able to label the most recent price action a C-wave or D-wave after the fact, that's pretty clear. Why bother? History? Looking backwards and interpreting like Eliot Wave? You got it right once recently, got it wrong once recently, and now you don't know. That's 50%.
ReplyDeleteRight now this is still a D-wave unless gold breaks $1161. That will force a new phasing of the intermediate cycle low. Once that happens then the odds will be back in favor of a continuation of the C-wave and I will invest accordingly.
ReplyDeleteThe secular bull is still in effect so nothing has changed in that regard. As long as one is willing to hold positions then they WILL be winners even if this does turn out to be a D-wave.
If however you have time requirements on your positions then you WILL be able to turn winning positions into losers.
Remember the only way to lose on long positions in a secular bull market is to sell for a loss.
I guarantee 95% of all investors who have tried to time the bull since 2001 have lost money or at best broke even simply because they sold positions for a loss.
If they had simply held on and ignored the twists and turns they would be up by almost 700% right now.
I think most anyone will be able to make the same statement about the rest of the secular bull. When it's all said and done those who ignored the ups and downs will come away with many hundreds of percent gains and those who try to time the market and sell for losses will walk away with little or nothing.
Gary:
ReplyDelete"When it's all said and done those who ignored the ups and downs will come away with many hundreds of percent gains and those who try to time the market and sell for losses will walk away with little or nothing."
Best case I've ever heard for 100% Old Turkey.
It's why I refuse to turn lose of my underwater investments, although a lot fewer are underwater right now.
ReplyDeleteIt would just guarantee an unneccesary loss and it would assume I have something better to do with the capital.
As far as I'm concerned there is only one secular bull market still in force, so it would be senseless to exit positions simply because they didn't perform in the time slot I wanted them to.
I would be taking a much bigger chance with my capital anywhere else so it's better to leave it right where it is, as that is the best odds I can get for a winning position.
Gary,
ReplyDeleteFundamental story for gold is number 1. Timing is number 2. If you screw up number 2, number 1 will eventually fix it. Hence why you don't sell losers as the timing of those losers will be fixed. Get that, so not to be taken away.
In terms of waves I think it’s only a matter of timing. If the upward trend in gold continues before the 200 catches up, we will most likely say C-wave. But if we tread water for a while, before going up we will most likely say D with an A wave advance.
I am wondering if the A advance will not be slightly off too(assuming D-Wave). There may be alot of pent up pressure in gold, since the C-wave was so messed up. I am wondering if it will be likely for gold to advance as an A-wave well beyond the Dec highs. This will make the next ABCD event unpredictable too, unless we correctly call this current event as a C wave or a D wave.
In my mind, in either event, I would expect gold to advance anywhere from now until say June. I can't see gold trade down too much lower, and I can't see the spot dipping below the 200 (although possible)….this gives a move by at least June or so. If June then we say D-wave, but if we advance from here, it will be one really small A-wave, or the A-wave(out of character) will defeat December C-wave top.
Of course this is your research, I am just throwing some stuff out there since things are not acting as they should. And we all hate unsolved puzzles : )
Gary:
ReplyDelete"It's why I refuse to turn lose of my underwater investments, although a lot fewer are underwater right now."
Sounds like you think what you're doing is basically Old Turkey strategy? I don't think so. Old Turkey is about holding on to ALL your positions, winners and losers, through a bull market. What you’ve done is cut loose winners and kept the losers. That’s not the same thing at all.
You’ll never be able to convince anyone they should cut their winners and let their losers run. That pig just won’t fly. You lose creds.
It's OK if you want to do it personally, we all give you the slack. Just don't try to justify it in these offhand ways, particularly if you want to invite comparisons with Old Turkey's strategy.
The problem with drawdowns, is that not only are you losing money, but you are NOT GAINING money. Every drawdown, is money you could have made on the short! So my goal, is to reduce my drawdowns to a minimum.
ReplyDeleteI may not make money shorting every correction, or consolidation, or D-wave... whatever you want to call it. But I will find those bottoms, and jump in them, esp if it's a bull market. I did on April 3rd, July 9th, and Feb 4-8th... and I will the next time too.
The beauty of the market: There were at least 2 great entry points for the market in 2009. And the same applied for 2008 (shorting the gold market - along with everything else). Let's stop chasing profits guys... Just [wait, to] buy on the dips in bull markets, and short on the peaks in bear markets.
Today: HUI closed down 1% today b/c the [stock] market is over bought. Let's give it some space... watch it once daily, and come back to buy more on a day this consolidation/correction is finished. I'm still getting STRONG sell signals. I refuse to buy on these peaks!
Every dollar counts, when you don't have much. I personally can't afford these large drawdowns, just b/c we're so confident that gold is going to $5,000.
Unfortunately the systems that make the most money usually also have the largest drawdowns. Trying to avoid drawdowns jsut means you will stop out of positions a lot more often.
ReplyDeletepH11:
ReplyDeleteFirst of all, love the pseudonym.
Second, you wrote just b/c we're so confident that gold is going to $5,000.
Here's a very readable and concise opinion on the confidence in the gold bubble, or developing bubble.
Morning everyone. Well Gold at 1115 is a break of the 1120 support isnt it and rsi 3 is at 25. Looks like overbought levels are gone, good entry point I say! If its a C not a D, time will tell...but since the Nyse Bullish % index turned up last week http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/Pnf.asp?s=$bpnya the market is on the side of the bulls.its allready at 68% but I think it will top out at 90% its a bit etrexm but so is the market lately.
ReplyDeleteAlex
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6280K720100309
ReplyDeleteChina committed to US Treasury mkt, will not buy gold on open mkt.
Sure China won't buy gold on the open market! LOL!!!
ReplyDeleteI don't mean to be rude, but why would it matter where China buys gold (private sale or open mkt)? Either way, more gold off the market (less supply) makes the fundamentals still positive.
ReplyDelete"China said bullion PROBABLY won’t be the country’s main reserve investment."
ReplyDelete“The size of the world’s gold market is small,” Yi said at a briefing in Beijing today. “China’s purchase will push up the prices. That will also hurt Chinese gold consumers.”
Since when do the rich, or politicians and bankers care ab about the little guy? LOL
"People are looking for a dip to come into the market.”= potential buyers below the market, which tells us people are only looking to buy=higher prices eventually
Above comment was taken from Bloomberg'
ReplyDeleteSo gold down. Dollar up.
ReplyDeleteMore anons on the site than ever before. So main traders are gone or don't want to use their blog name.
D-wave for despair. And probably more pain to come. Guys like PH11 are sidelining until a confirmed moved up(no disrespect or comment, just an observation).
Only guys like Soros are buying. Moreso he is buying what we are selling.
Also note that he cut his GLD call options. So long-term play, short-term pain.
"Gold down a chunk, BFD. Consolidating/profit taking after rising for a week. You are a freaking moron."
ReplyDeleteI think one should look into mirror...You are the moron for staying long this stuff...IDIOT...
Dawler up Gold down...hmmm gettin close to that 1100 level...I can only laugh at weak minded people like yourself...sweating yet...
With respect to the article about China not buying Gold in the open market, why would they. China is the largest producer of gold and that gold doesn't leave China. The article means nothing and is just smoke and mirrors. It is interesting to note that all Chinese gov't panda's (gold coins) are and will continue to be pre sold out. watch what the do, not what they say.
ReplyDelete"ANON March 8, 2010 1:53 PM Gary, by what date should gold pass the 1161 mark to validate the continuation of the C wave?"
ReplyDelete1161!!!!...hahahahahahahahahaha...what drug are you taking...1108 just printed....hahahaha...you are just another lemming...think for yourself...
Oh i forgot to mention..Equities lower...
ReplyDelete"I think one should look into mirror...You are the moron for staying long this stuff...IDIOT...
ReplyDeleteDawler up Gold down...hmmm gettin close to that 1100 level...I can only laugh at weak minded people like yourself...sweating yet..."
Nope, not sweating at all. Holding USD's would for sure cause me to sweat, but strong minded people like you can continue to hold those. LMAO. DUMB ASS.
Dawler looking good today my friend...the buck will most likely break out through the 81.50 level in the next few days...and gold will hit 1100 today or tom...your funny...
ReplyDeleteEveryone should follow Bob Hoye over at 321gold instead of Gary. He had this one spot on.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye022410.html
lower highs and lower lows...the trend is your friend...you will be sweating...
ReplyDeleteDawler looking good today my friend...the buck will most likely break out through the 81.50 level in the next few days...and gold will hit 1100 today or tom...your funny...
ReplyDeleteYou continue to not get the fact that a .05-1% drop in gold is meaningless to most of the people here. We are riding a bull market and massive surprises come up the upside. Many here sat through a 15-25% down draw on our miners during the recent correction only to have them back to break even within a few weeks. This is a long term play. You can take you DAWLERS and use them to wipe your ass in in the next few months.
Oh thanks...by then i will use benjy dawlers to clear buttox...unfortunately for you i will be using your dawlers that i take from you...oh well...
ReplyDeleteBTW thats really smart to ride a drawdown of 25%...you won't last very long doing that...you are pretty smart...this market needs people like you...haha
Gary has been saying for weeks that gold needs to break $1161 before jumping back in. How is that different than Bob Hoye?
ReplyDelete"Only guys like Soros are buying. Moreso he is buying what we are selling."-anon
ReplyDeleteNo selling here, my friend. I don't sell into weakness unless it's to my stop-out point, which we're nowhere close. It's too early to add, IMO, but I don't sell bull markets.
Anon 6:11. Look at the date the report was published.
ReplyDeleteSweet Jesus, Soros is buying more miners!
ReplyDeleteNovaGold Resources Inc. Announces Additional $75 Million Financing
Monday, 8 Mar 2010 08:25am EST
NovaGold Resources Inc. announced that it is proposing to issue 13,636,364 common shares of the Company at a price of $5.50 per common share for gross proceeds of $75,000,002 (Soros Offering) to Quantum Partners Ltd., a private investment fund managed by Soros Fund Management LLC. This is in addition to the $100 million financing announced by the Company on March 4, 2010 (Paulson Offering). The gross proceeds to be raised under the two financings total $175 million. The Company intends to use the net proceeds from these financings to fund general exploration and development on the Company's advanced properties including Donlin Creek, Galore Creek and Rock Creek, its early-stage Ambler property, and for general corporate purposes, including funding potential future acquisitions. The Soros Offering is expected to close on or about March 11,2010.
LOL. Doesn't Soros know he should be long DAWLERS. LMAO at the dummy dollar long douche.
ReplyDeleteminers no where near their highs while Nasdaq and RUT are past their highs...I think this is bad news for the markets in general and miners.
ReplyDelete