Calls for a market crash were flying left and right. I'll let you in on a secret, we always hear that the market is going to crash at intermediate cycle bottoms. The reality is we've had three real market crashes in the last 100 years. The odds of a fourth following right on the heels of the third are pretty darn slim.
The first and the third crash were caused by credit bubble implosions and the second was caused by severe overvaluation in the fifth year of a secular bull market. These fifth year corrections are fairly common in long term bull markets as it seems like it takes about five years for sentiment to swing to the extreme bullish side. Then the fifth year correction serves to wipe out that bullish sentiment so the secular fundamentals can continue to drive the bull higher.
Not withstanding the very low odds of a market crash, I knew that we were way too late in the intermediate cycle, and sentiment was way too bearish for there to be much chance of the head and shoulders top succeeding (actually head and shoulders patterns only succeed and reach their target about 27% of the time). Not to mention everyone saw it which gave it even less odds of actually playing out like everyone was expecting.
At that point it became much more likely that the market wasn't forming a head and shoulders top it was in fact probably going to form a head and shoulders bottom with the half cycle low forming the right shoulder.
No one else at the time was calling for any such outcome, as a matter of fact I took an amazing amount of abuse for my temerity to even consider such a ridiculous idea.
As of yesterday the Dow has now completed the inverse head and shoulders pattern by breaking the neckline just like I thought it would. Now will it reach it's target (11,200)? The odds say no. But it's anybodies guess at this point.
What we do know is that virtually all indexes have rallied out of the half cycle low to new highs thus breaking the pattern of lower lows and lower highs. Higher highs and higher lows is the definition of an uptrend.
This was why I'm not ready to call a bear market yet. I was confident this rally was coming and we need to see were it goes before we can say with any confidence that we are back in the secular bear trend.
We now have two clear lines in the sand. If the market breaks out to new highs then the perma-bear/deflationists were too early and the cyclical bull still has some kick left.
If the market (both Dow and transports) break below the July 1st low then yes the bear is back.
As long as the market holds between those two lines we will remain in no-mans land.
Right now the market is in rally mode just like I warned would happen. We just have to wait and see whether it turns out to be a bear market rally or another leg up in the cyclical bull market.
I for one, have no intentions of trying to guess which it is until one of those lines gets broken.
Do you hear that? It's the sound of trolls with their foot stuck in their mouth. LOL
ReplyDeleteIt's the sound of trolls with a boot stuck up their ass! LMAO
ReplyDeleteAlright let's keep it civil folks. If the market breaks the July 1st lows then the perma-bears will be vindicated.
ReplyDeleteAll I'm saying is we need to wait and see which it's going to be.
How many times must I tell you people this. I've been reading this blog for years now and the G-man always ends up being right.
ReplyDeleteAnyone taking the opposite side of his trades is just asking for financial suicide.
Actually if I did attempt to "trade" the market I would be right about 50-60% of the time. No better than anyone else.
ReplyDeleteI just have no desire to go down that path. It's much easier and one will make a lot more money just hopping on board a bull market and holding on.
I'm all about the easy money ;)
So what's this mean for PM's?
ReplyDeleteJust like the stock market gold is trying to put in an intermediate cycle low. It may have done so on Tuesday or we may still have a few days left.
ReplyDeleteHowever gold bugs need to be prepared. Gold doesn't behave the same way stocks do. When stocks put in an intermediate cycle low they tend to explode higher out of that bottom.
When gold puts in an intermediate cycle low it tends to grind higher as no one will believe the move for quite some time especially in the low demand summer months.
Gold and stocks also top completely different. Intermediate tops in the stock market tend to be drawn out affairs that can take weeks or even a month or more before it's obvious the rally has topped.
Gold on the other hand tends to form parabolic moves as everyone finally becomes convinced the rally has legs. The spike up is always followed by a crash back down.
Just like all asset classes gold has to obey the law of regression to the mean.
But even though gold and miners may be due for a dull grinding period for the next month or two, in a volatile sector like the PM that can still easily outperform the stock market.
If shorts are lucky enough to get a down open, they'd better cover rather than fade the G-man!
ReplyDeleteI'm ready to buy more gold when Gary gives the green light, or at $1150 and $1080, whichever comes first.
Gary_UK here, wasting my time again.
ReplyDeleteGary, just 2 months ago you said exactly the same, if the market broke the Feb2010 lows, then the trend has changed, no doubt you will deny you said that, but I know and you know you did, several times.
Now, it seems you want to see the market blow the July 1st lows before you 'call the bear' as being back.
So, I am guessing that when we break that July low sometime next month, you will then call for the Augist low to be broken before you will accept reality.
I doubt you have little idea how ridiculous you are sounding,it gets more amazing every post. You seem not to realise that markets do not crash into bears, there is something called a topping process, and it;s clear as day that's what we;re in now.
I'll repost when SPy is below 1000, sometime in the next month, I do hope you might apologise to your readers at that point.
PS, that's the dodgiest looking IHS neckline I've ever seen, it is just randomly placed.
I'm off to bed, sweet dreams folks.
Sheez how many times must I say this. I need to see three things happen before I'm ready to say the bear is back. One we need to break below the yearly cycle low. That came in February this year.
ReplyDeleteMost of the indexes did break that low but the Russell and Transports did not. The fact that the transports didn't gives us a Dow theory nonconfirmation which is potentially bullish.
Two the 50 day moving average has to cross under the 200 and the 200 has to turn down. We have half that equation in place.
And finally I have to see a Dow Theory sell signal. Which we just don't have yet.
Until all three of those happen I'm not prepared to call the bear. That doesn't mean I'm saying it's still a bull either. Just that I don't know.
Here's the problem. You have convinced yourself the bear is back and you have apparently loaded up with puts. If you are wrong you are going to blow out your account.
Now let's use just a bit of commonsense and a little mathmatics and see if there is any advantage to jumping the gun.
Let's say you went short at roughly 1180 (which is arguably where one could say we started to make lower lows). Let's also say this does turn out to be a bear market and it drops all the way to 600, at which point you pick the exact bottom an cover. You will have profited 49.5%.
Now let's say someone else who isn't quite so trigger happy decides to wait for proper confirmation before he sells short. He does so when the market closes below 1010 (providing the transports also close below the July low) he also covers at the exact bottom at 600.
Take a guess how much one would have made by playing it safe and waiting for proper confirmation.
In case you don't have your calculator handy the correct number is 40.6%.
You would have missed a total of 7.9% by patinently waiting for confirmation and in exchange you would drastically reduce the odds that you were wrong which in your case will cost you your portfolio.
Is a mere 7.9% worth giving up to stack the odds in your favor?
Gary you are letting your impatience and I'm guessing inexperience cause you to make a mistake that just doesn't need to be made. There is plenty of time to get short after the market clearly signals it's intent. Have the patience to wait for that signal and in the process massively reduce the odds of making a catastrophic mistake.
G,
ReplyDeleteYou are wasting your breath with this nut. He's obviously just gambling and he's made an all in bet. No amount of common sense or simple math is going to get through to this guy.
He's already into huge losses on his puts and he simply can't exit now and take that kind of loss. He's already already deep into the process of blowing out his account.
Amid a rather high-strung post, Gary_UK does make a technical point: That line you drew is not really a IH&S neckline, rather a break above a descending trend-line of daily closes.
ReplyDeleteStill bullish, though, as are those higher swing lows. An odd-looking topping process, to say the least.
Gary_Uk is an idiot, if for no other reason than he believes he cannot be wrong.
ReplyDeleteIt's all probabilities and risk-control with nothing more.
Gary_UK is a net loser in trading, and I'd be proven correct with that guess 4 out of 5 times over just 1 year. Three years out, I'd be right 9 of 10.
In fact, with those odds, I think I'll just fade Gary_UK. That is, if I trusted him to actually post his trades in real time or even with a short lag of a few minutes.
ReplyDeleteWhy not post entries and exits, UK, what do you say?
I'm no pattern expert by any means as I don't believe they really give traders much of an edge but I do believe I drew the neckline correctly.
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteYes you did draw the neckline correctly and the volume on up days in the right shoulder is heavier than the left which also confirms the pattern.
The neckline is drawn correctly. But this is a weak move up so far. I say so far because weak moves can turn into strong moves. If 27% of the H&Ss fail than that can also work for the upside too. Based on my long term charts, I think this will fail at some point and we will continue back down. I am looking at Sept/Oct for that time period.
ReplyDeleteIf you hold a position long enough you will be right 90% of the time.
ReplyDeleteI am short gold and it is going down. I will start covering shorts around 1150 small. Not getting long until it bottoms - 1000 area.
The next intermediate cycle trough is due in mid to late November.
ReplyDeleteMost technical indicators point to an 1150 touch this week. Probing the 1185 flag area here. Should slice through thi area today.
ReplyDeleteI read Gary's stuff as on going progression in a gold bull. You are still climbing the mountain, but you are looking at the landscape on the way up.
ReplyDeleteI suppose this, lol, is how Gary climbs. He has a destination and knows where he is going, but he needs to take a look at each motion forward.
If you are an active trader versus an investor with at most a casual trader inside of you, your perspective will most likely be different.
The only time I will say Gary is wrong, and dead wrong he would have been, is if Gold doesn't climb to all time highs. Everything else he writes is to make sure the fundamental long-term bull is still on track. And I too disagree with certain items on the way up, but it is irrelevant to the long-term bull and the best way of making money on this bull. Old Turkey.
Gary, I think, you need to post the Old Turkey blog right below your troll meter. People keep forgetting. lol. Keep up the great coaching!
Gary,
ReplyDeleteWhat is your long-term view on the dollar? (how bad do you think it may get). Also, what do you think the effect will be on other world currencies? Will the dollar be the catalyst to world inflation, or just at home?
Thanks,
Sam
I think the dollar is in a structural bear market. I also think the government is on a path destined to destroy the dollar.
ReplyDeleteWe are running up debt that can never be serviced.
So we are going to face a choice sometime in the future to either massively debase the currency, running the risk of hyperinflation or we will have to default on our debt.
I don't think anyone in Washington will choose to default.
Thanks Gary,
ReplyDeleteBut what is the advantage of PMs over simply buying a foreign currency? If the problem is about the dollar, why not just get out of the dollar and go into another currency instead of worrying about what gold does?
Sam
That one is easy.
ReplyDeleteAll currencies are being debased because virtually all countries have a debt problem. Just moving into a less worse currency won't protect your wealth. You must be in real things (commodities)
I prefer gold and silver because PM are the only sector still in a secular bull market (the demand side of the equation remains unaffected by the ongoing global recession).
Also I understand how human nature works and no secular bull market in history has ever topped before reaching the bubble stage.
Since gold is easily owned by the public and it is a thin market, when the bubble stage comes it will be massive. Larger than anything we have ever seen before.
That will not only protect ones wealth it will make one wealthy.
Gary,
ReplyDeleteDo you think the bubble stage could be the next one (the top of this C wave)?
If not when do you think it could happen and, equally as important, how high do you think gold can go? Last question, why do you think the miners have not been exhibiting the leverage to the gold price and if you expect that to change would it be when we break through the 500's in a real way on the HUI?
Thanks for everything!
No this C-wave will not be the final one. There are still 6 years left in this 8 year cycle. I expect the top sometime during this cycle but it could even last till the 8 year cycle after that.
ReplyDeleteI'm just watching for bubble signs. That won't happen until we see every Tom, Dick and Harry buying gold. I also expect to see the Dow:gold ratio drop to 1:1.
Miners are just trying to break through a very stubborn resistance level at 519. When they finally do, I expect we will see a very large move very quickly.
It's not looking good for Gary-UK and the perma-bear squad today. The 1100 support level was tested early and held.
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteAre you doing any buying today, or waiting till later in the week?
Thanks.
GaryUK's options are down close to 50%. Good thing he has another job.
ReplyDeleteSame thing with wrong-way TK..BLOWNT!
ReplyDeleteI will send out an email alret to all subs when I put on the rest of my position.
ReplyDeleteAs bad as gold has been, being short stocks has been the worst possible trade of them all.
ReplyDeleteThanks for keeping out, Gary. :)
Nice $10 dump in gold. There is still time to sell.
ReplyDeleteYou need to look at the HUGE H & S topping formation in gold. Target of 1050-1075 easily. I am pulling my 1150 buying level. Going lower!
troll
Gary has kept you in gold for $85 BUCKS of drawdowns!!!! -6.7% !!!! and falling further. I thought this was a gold blog not stox.
ReplyDeleteANON :(
ReplyDeleteYou know who you are.
Cat got your tongue!
Nah....Your prob in there buying! hahaha
Breaking 1180. Still time.
ReplyDeletetroll
We are getting a buying opportunity. Only dunb money retail traders sell on the 25th week of an intermediate cycle and with gold sentiment lower than it was in Feb.
ReplyDeleteSmart money understands the meaning of buying opportunity and they know this only comes around every 5-6 months. These aren't to be wasted.
I'm just waiting to see if gold can tag the 50% retracement level at $1155 before putting on the rest of my position.
Buy low, sell high. Not the other way around.
From earlier.........
ReplyDeleteDo you hear that? It's the sound of trolls with their foot stuck in their mouth. LOL
It's the sound of trolls with a boot stuck up their ass! LMAO
Who is laughing now!!!!!!!
You stuck longs always lash out and get right in the gutter.
Gold is starting to show a momemtum divergence on stochastics. This often happens as gold puts in a cycle low.
ReplyDeleteGary
ReplyDeleteREAL smart money sold the break down from 1250 and the smarter money went short and are still short from those levels.
Only a fool (longs) would sell here.
Hey num nuts catch a clue. Many of us have been long since last September. No little 7% correction is going to kick us out or even make us sweat.
ReplyDeleteI reached strong hand status some time ago. You think I would give that up just because gold is going through one of it's normal corrections?
If so you are dumber than I thought.
I'm afraid you are wrong on that one smart money is smart enough to know you never short a bull market.
ReplyDeleteThat is the single riskiest trade one can take. I had to learn that one the hard way.
Apparently you will too.
You haven't figured it out yet we are going back to 1000. Ohhh getting a little testy seeing the gain you HAD evaporate.
ReplyDeleteTroll is idiot, chirping about gold as it's down .3%, as if that's a victory. LMAO!!
ReplyDeleteStill up 17.2% with Gary's assistance, and have 2 orders to buy at lower levels should we even get there. Leaving those orders where they've been, and might even take the rest of the day off. :)
You have managed to push the troll meter up to 75%. Congratulations!
ReplyDeleteWe are going to need a few more of your buddies to show up before we can hit 100%. I'm confident they will appear if gold can drop to the 1150-60 level.
That will be my signal to put on the rest of my position. :)
Looks like the Dow and the transports will close above the June highs.
ReplyDeleteThe shorts are finished!
The only one left is troll baby and he's going to stand on the tracks too long and the gold train will soon run over him too.
Hey Gary,
ReplyDeleteSome of the PM stocks (take GDXJ, for example) have actually been acting relatively well the past few days as they have been up a bit even as gold has been falling. The volume is not great but the price is relatively strong. Do you think this is any indication of it possibly leading gold (I never quite understood that PM stock buyers are supposedly smarter than the futures players but many people day the PMs lead the futures but I don't know the answer) or simply just because the broader equity market has been strong?
Notice "numnuts" also never addresses his stock shorts which he took before this monster rally?
ReplyDeleteHe's getting killed, if he even trades at all.
Very interesting perspective on this article and someone that seems to see things a bit differently albeit that makes sense. Not sure of the effect on the PMs, however, and would welcome any comments.
ReplyDeletehttp://mpettis.com/2010/07/the-capital-tsunami-is-a-bigger-threat-than-the-nuclear-option/
The miners could very well be sniffing out a bottom soon. This is the 25th week of the intermediate cycle and they rarely last more than 25 weeks.
ReplyDeleteThe HUI just doesn't seem to want to stay below 450 now does it :)
ReplyDeleteGary_UK will be living under a bridge soon, if he doesn't cover his shorts.
ReplyDeleteThe break of the crawl so far is doing just what it should be doing.
ReplyDeleteTroll boy should consider subscribing to the SMT.
ReplyDeleteMy orders to buy gold at lower levels will have to be moved higher, if this is all the selloff we get. I have no problem paying higher prices, as long as the direction has turned.
ReplyDeleteEverybody needs gold.
I happen to think troll and Gary are one in the same, the latter using the former to prime the pump, as it were.
ReplyDeletetroll's performance is just a little too on-the-nose.
;-)
LOL I can assure you I'm not troll. Apparently there really is someone nutty enough to bankrupt himself by shorting the most powerful bull market any of us will ever see.
ReplyDeleteAnd 25 weeks into an intermediate cycle no less.
Stocks up big again, and gold about to cross into positive territory.
ReplyDeleteWow, the troll really ought to give up short term trading.
I swear, even though my gold is a long term trade, the best part of my day is watching troll's trading stink up the joint. LMAO!!!
LOL
ReplyDeletetroll
I see the meter got a nice bump today...
ReplyDeletePM's are just stupid. Market is perky and they just fell asleep.
ReplyDeleteSo impatient. One will never get rich with that kind of attitude :)
ReplyDelete$USD testing the July lows.
ReplyDeleteYeah not only are the bears getting squashed but the dollar bulls are also taking it in the arse!
ReplyDeleteG you've been right on all counts. If gold puts in a bottom here also I'll be buying a subscription :)
The recent decline in gold reminds me of Mar-Apr '09, which was the beginning of 40%+ run until December.
ReplyDeleteI capitulated. Lol.
ReplyDeleteI couldn’t take it anymore. I needed to sell my cash and accumulate more PM’s. Still another 50% of what I want to put in to go.
I think we've probably seen the last of Gary-UK ;)
ReplyDeleteGDX does have a recent gap to fill at 48.16.
ReplyDeleteI don't see any gap??
ReplyDeleteI have the 7/21 close at 48.16, lowest trade since at 48.51 ... what am I missing?
ReplyDeleteThe intraday high on the 21st was 49.20. The open on the 22nd was at about 48.50.
ReplyDeleteTo have a gap GDX would have had to open above 49.20 and never traded down to that level.
If you are just looking at an intraday move though then yes there is a gap but it's not the kind of gap the hedge funds are going to try to gun for.
Of course that doesn't mean we won't see GDX trade down to that level or lower.
If gold drops down to tag the 1155 level I'm pretty confident GDX will trade below 48.
GOLD on the LOWS!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteHUI last time I checked it was slicing through 450!!!!
446.85 OUCHIE!!!!
Lets go boys.
New strategy here is based on the troll meter. And you fools pay for this crap. This is almost as good as Jobs has done for that gadget co. apple scrapple.
Troll baby just can't get it through his thick head that the only way to guarantee profits from this bull is by learning from Old Turkey.
ReplyDeleteWere would one be if they listened to your nonsense and lost their position then the bull took off. They would be sitting with no position that's where they would be.
You were probably saying the same thing in Feb. Thankfully I ignored you then too.
1% is slicing through? Not a very ambitious short.
ReplyDeleteAAPL is at all time highs. Considerably above the 07 high.
ReplyDeleteAnd you somehow think that is a terrible job?
Oh my god you really are an idiot.
G, I think you have to ignore TB's comments for the troll meter, this nut is insane.
Ouch it just keeps getting worse and worse for the shorties!
ReplyDeleteWrong way TK is shorting the DIA LOL.
ReplyDeleteThis fool couldn't see higher highs and higher lows if it hit him in the face.
Anytime now we should starting hearing the bears blame the PPT for this rally.
ReplyDeleteWhich of course is ridiculous because if there was a PPT then we never would have had a correction in the first place.
Wash rinse repeat.
ReplyDeletetroll
Stock Short Sales at 2-Year Low, Data Explorers Says: By Nikolaj Gammeltoft - Jul 26, 2010 2:28 PM EDT
ReplyDelete"Investors are exiting bearish bets on global equities, pushing bullish wagers on stocks to a two- year high versus short sales, according to Data Explorers....."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-26/short-sales-drop-to-two-year-low-on-stocks-worldwide-data-explorers-says.html
Fish N Chips UK has certainly been getting spanked ever since his "the way I trade has no pain" comment.
ReplyDeleteAnd with options, it's already to late to get his money back, unless stocks drop 30% from here, in which case he might break even.
"I make a very good living, he says. Could be, but it ain't from trading. :)
Notice Wrong Way TK won't address the disaster he's experiencing. He'll just come online the first down day, and "admit" he's had rough going, but thanks to triple downs, it's been one major SCORE!
ReplyDeleteGary is about the only honest bloke out there.
Tim Knight is a cocksucker who banned me from his site. He bans people who disagree with his thesis even if its done in civil way. Tim Knight is a cocksucker who has been wrong about markets since the day he was born. Gets his ass handed to him every year.
ReplyDeleteGolds action here is not inspiring. I dunno but it feels like it will head lower perhaps to 1060 or so before heading back up. Kind of nervous about my large PM positions.
Why worry about PM positions? It's like worrying about a vault full of gold. Sure it will go up and down in value, but it's never going to be worthless. Sleep well. The Western economy is essentially dead without monetary life-support. And that life-support also pumps up gold. Politicians will never have the guts to pull the plug and let the corpse die, so gold will continue to go up.
ReplyDeleteInteresting a lot of bullishness on this board considering the market has made lower highs and lower lows since May on both the major indexes and the HUI (besides one small higher low in the most recent action).
ReplyDeleteIt's still a chopfest, the miners still have no leadership and neither does the rest of the market. I'd like to see an AAPL or something continue higher along with an ANV or SLW to continue with the bull case.
Gary,
ReplyDeleteWith tonight's SMT, I am a little confused to the second triangle consolidation in the C-Wave advance. Generally there is one. What has changed to suggest gold will allow such a change in pattern? You mention the dollar, but has a C-wave ever done this before? Would appreciate some thoughts on this twist perhaps in another report or on the blog.
Cheers.
Justin,
ReplyDeleteSPX has taken out the July swing high by a comfortable margin, and the current swing low is 50 handles higher than the lows of the current down move on the dailies (thus far). Looks like higher highs and higher lows to me.
If you want market leadership, how about XLB? Accumulation volume, a takeout of of June *and* July highs, room to run on the momentum indicators, etc. Not a sector one would expect to see strong in a deflationary setting.
The point about the PMs is well taken.
Short-term, the broad market is getting pretty stretched, and the dollar is still at major support. Wouldn't be surprising to see more chop within the large range, with an eye kept on the dollar and Treasuries.
It will be interesting to see what happens I could see the market making new highs here. If that happens I'll take a look at where bonds, the dollar, the leading stocks, the miners and gold and some other things are to see what the internal picture of the market is really showing. Even if the market does make a new high, bonds would have to get slaughtered to drive them back below the base they have formed for a few years and just started breaking out from. That would be quite a big fakeout in the bond market, I just don't see that happening quite yet until bonds go higher and break the 2008 highs.
ReplyDeleteTLT taking out the 2008 highs, which were made on a full-blown panic at the hight of the crisis, would be quite a market statement.
ReplyDeleteGary said about his old blog:
ReplyDelete"I did take the comments section down because the spam was piling up. I can turn the comments back on for a few hours if you would like to do some research."
This would be really great! In return I would post any relevant findings.
Gary, I got the info and start to evaluate it now. You can (re)close the comments of the old blog if you want to.
ReplyDeleteThanks again!
http://pragcap.com/gold-top
ReplyDeleteIf you like gold, please don't read this.
Shorts have gotten clobbered. It's impossible to be any more wrong and any faster than the bears have been Sheesh, they didn't even get to play the game for long and have paid dearly, just a one-way, immediate steamrolling.
ReplyDeleteIt's so bad I'm starting to feel sorry for them. I hate to see them forced to find other work in this Depression, just because they had one absolutely horrendous call and no risk control.
Gary_UK has taken a sound drubbing, as did troll. Don't worry about Wrong Way TK, though, he'll massage his story so it made lots and lots of money. :)
Sheesh it just keeps getting worse and worse for the stock bears and the dollar bulls.
ReplyDeleteThe dollar just blew right through that 82 support level this morning.
Anon,
ReplyDeleteEvery C-wave has coresponded with a leg down in the dollar. Since the 3 year cycle low isn't due till next year it seems most likly that gold will experience a two leg rally as it will take two intermediate cycles to make it into next year.
CNBC just had a so called expert on who gave all kinds of reasons for why gold was going back down to 1075.
ReplyDeleteThat should be the sign we are very close to the bottom.
We are about to enter the high demand season not to mention gold almost always puts in a major low in July or August.
And of course we are on the 25th week of an intermediate cycle.
This is the exact same sentiment we saw in the stock market three weeks ago. It also turned just like I said it would.
ReplyDeleteAll assets follow cycles and gold is no exception.
I'm surprised you watch CNBC, Gary. I suppose it's helpful as a contrary indicator, but our household dumped the TV entirely around 18 months ago.
ReplyDeleteNot only has my trading improved, but our quality of life is through the roof. It felt odd at first, but none of us would even allow it the house now. LOL!
I must admit I'm addicted to a few shows. House, Chuck, Lie to Me and several others :)
ReplyDeleteI only turn on CNBC first thing in the morning to what the morning looks like. I usually turn it off about the time the market opens.
Ah, addictions aren't typically healthy, but at least you're aware. :)
ReplyDeleteAnother sector to keep an eye on: the highly cyclical shippers. A lot of broken down-trends in that group. DRYS, to pick one example, sports a nice little inverted H&S with growing green volume bars. $BDI might also be leveling off/switching trend.
ReplyDeletehttp://pragcap.com/gold-top
ReplyDeleteIf you like gold, please don't read this.
Paulson just finished writing the article. He is buying all your gold when he crashes it to 1170, which isn't that bad to begin with.
Apparently "bruce" never learned THE lesson. Never, never, never short a bull market.
ReplyDeleteAll the bears were dead wrong about the stock market just like I said they would be because we were too late in the intermediate cycle to have any reasonable odds of going much lower.
ReplyDeleteNow we have the same situation in the gold market for the same reason and the bears are going to be wrong again for the exact same reason. It's just too late in the intermediate cycle to have time for anything other than just a little bit more weakness.
We keep chopping away at the 1180 level. We should break lower today.
ReplyDeletetroll
Gary, I believe this time, pm will have to wait a while before going up. Agri and oil are much cheaper than gold with the correction. Plus, the euro debt crisis appear to stabilize. The only thing is to see big pm buying juniors. I will stick with agri and oil for now.
ReplyDeleteLooks like there will have to be at least another week before gold sets a weekly swing low.
ReplyDeleteWhere are the bulls.
ReplyDeleteWhere have they gone.
We don't know they maybe full.
They don't realize it , but they are done!
troll
I will take a Turkey over a Troll any day. They taste better. ;)
ReplyDeleteI'm moving my buy limit up to $1160, from $1150, and continue to wait patiently.
ReplyDeleteKeeping the $1080 buy order where it is.
I gots the itch to BUY!
ReplyDeleteKeep buying gents.
ReplyDeleteWhy the hell are you trying to catch the falling knife. This crap is down $100 BUCKS from the high and you are looking to buy here!!!!!
Get your turkey head out of your ASS fools!
Getting ready to plunge to 1150 soon.
HUI at 435. Ouch the 450 level just got schooled.
troll
C'mon guys, start buying this gold. You know its going up up and away.
ReplyDeleteShit, should have sold more. Not covering shorts until 1100 now.
Humpty DUMPty.
troll
I wouldn't buy until you see a positive divergence between GDX and GLD. Not seeing that so far. Volume on GLD is starting to drift into capitulation land, but there's always time to get in once the dust settles.
ReplyDeleteHows that 1160 buy going!
ReplyDeleteFOOL!
ANON :(
ReplyDeleteYou know who you are.
Taking a nap are you.
Now your only up 15.5%.
You have given up over 42% of you gains from 26.5 to 15.5
Just don't wait and give it all back. You really don't want to sell to me whan I cover shorts at 1000.
troll
DO NOT buy this gold at these levels.
ReplyDeletetroll
Where the heck are all the bull-tards.
In de-nile
Nice. Have the SMART MONEY blog all to myself today.
ReplyDeleteBulls, especially the gold ones, are getting corn holed today.
OUCHIE!
Say goodbye to 1160 soon.
troll
There certainly is a lot of puking. PMs haven't seen this kind of volume since the selloff that began the month.
ReplyDeleteSLW moving above an intraday inverted H&S.
ReplyDeleteTreasuries are not catching a bid today.
ReplyDeleteBig money started buying PMs last hour.
ReplyDeletehttp://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mfgppl-moneyflow.html