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Tuesday, August 24, 2010

DANGEROUS TIMES FOR THE BEARS

In February I warned the bears that the market was just putting in a profit taking correction and that we would see another leg up in the bull. They didn't listen.

In late June I warned that the daily and intermediate cycle were deep in the timing band for a bottom and overzealous bears risked getting caught in a powerful rally. They didn't listen again and they got caught in an 11% rally.

In July I warned the gold bears that this correction was just a normal intermediate cycle pullback. One that happens like clockwork every 5 to 6 months. Again they didn't listen. Gold  proceeded to rally 15 out of the next 17 days.

So here we go again. The stock market is now on day 37 (average length 35 -45 days) of it's daily cycle. Sentiment is again at bearish extremes.

Again just like in February, June and July all we hear are technical reasons for why the market has to go down. Folks I'm going to warn you again. Cycles and sentiment work, and they are much more powerful movers of markets than technical chart patterns.

Cycles and sentiment are now warning that a bottom is fast approaching. On top of that institutional traders began to accumulate stock today (large buying on weakness data).

As soon as the dollar rolls over, and it will roll over into its yearly cycle low, it is going to put tremendous upwards pressure on virtually all assets (with maybe the exception of bonds).

There are another two signs that a bottom is approaching. First off we have another Bollinger band crash trade in play.


I've noted before that these panic selling days often occur either very near or at cycle bottoms.

Also the market dipped down to and bounced off of the 75 week moving average.


As you can see this has acted as strong support and resistance in bull and bear markets. If the cyclical bull is still alive then the market shouldn't drop more than marginally below this level.

This late in the daily cycle I expect this will be the case.

This will be the fourth time I've warned bears to beware of an impending cycle bottom. They ignored the warning three times to their chagrin.

Are they going to make it 4 for 4?

Bears would be wise to cover shorts as soon as a swing low forms. Of course if Bernanke happens to mention the Q word shorts risk getting caught in a huge gap up.

Like I said, dangerous times for the bears.

155 comments:

  1. Gary,

    Interested in how you see the miners short-term, following the metal or following the equities market.

    Your LT portfolio suggests miners will continue to provide huge leverage on gains in the metals.

    Clearly, that will only be the case if miners move up with the metal OR if the broader equities market moves with the metal (ie weaker dollar lifts all asset classes).

    ReplyDelete
  2. I must confess I could care less what miners do in the short term. I have no intention of selling anything until I feel the C-wave has run its course.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Gary, this guy says you are a big fool: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Will-Denial-Turn-into-etfguide-1200217334.html?x=0&.v=1

    Crashing coming.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Gary , which sentiment indicators do you feel work best and your 35-45 day cycle range can be used on spx, compx and rut? thanks in advance.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Masochists just love getting run over by the G-train :)

    ReplyDelete
  6. Gary,
    what do u think about the big boys trading the /ES instead of the SPY? selling on strength doesn't tell you anything about the majority of the market, which is in futures instead of the index ETF

    ReplyDelete
  7. The big boys hedge in the futures market but they have most of their capital in actual stocks. The money flow data is valid and while it's not a perfect timing tool it invariably shows up at or close to tops and bottoms.

    When it shows up 37 days into a daily cycle, with sentiment wildly bearish, I take it seriously.

    ReplyDelete
  8. yeah but i'm talking about S&P futures, not a different index. huge institutions are trading futures instead of the index listed on the WSJ site.

    ReplyDelete
  9. don't the big boys have more in the futures than actual stocks? it would make sense as tax treatment is generally more preferable

    ReplyDelete
  10. Anon,
    I look at several. The intermediate score is pretty good at spotting intermediate cycle tops and bottoms, The same for dumb money confidence levels. The ROBO ratio is also a good intermediate tell.

    Short term tops are more difficult. Sometimes the short term score gets fairly close.

    All the indexes usually bottom together so it really doesn't matter which one you look at. I tend to focus on the S&P because that is what professional money managers measure themselves against.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Last week the large S&P contract traded 87 billion. The emini's 157 billion. That's a tiny speck compared to the total market.

    If I'm not mistaken the total assets of Bridgewater alone are greater than 87 billion.

    ReplyDelete
  12. It does smell like QE2 is coming. I wouldn't be surprised if the Fed prepared the way last time with its interest in treasuries again. I wouldn’t be at all surprised, if the forgiveness of mortgages is on its way. Something radical and that will directly impact families sounds perfect for obamanomics.

    Ben really hasn't really started yet. QE1 was really based upon "too big to fail" and the housing crisis. Ben really hasn't discussed employment yet, or Joe and Sally. Now would be a good time for QE2 to get started with politics.

    ReplyDelete
  13. I'm definitely not going to be covering my shorts as long as more evidence comes to light that we are in a new downtrend. The Nikkei just broke down from an important technical level today following the Ireland 6% down day.

    It will be interesting to see as this trend continues when Gary realizes he's on the wrong side of the trade.

    ReplyDelete
  14. I would note that cycle theory cannot simultaneously label the February intermediate low as a yearly low and also support a move above the April high. A move to new highs would require shifting the labeling of the yearly low to July because July is a lower low. Despite sentiment, I have my doubts that will occur.

    Also, with the dollar, we cannot get a yearly low in December followed by a 3-year low in March. They have to coincide... unless, of course, you believe we'll squeeze another yearly cycle into a 3-month period ;-) Most likely we will see an extended yearly cycle to counter the short one from 2008.

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  15. Gary might well be on the wrong side of the trade, but that doesn't make it a smart trade to go short here. While it might fall further, the risk/reward is pretty bad here. The time to short was when the S&P was at 1130, not now. All the easy money 7% has been made... does it really make sense to push your bets here? It may work out once in a while but in the long run isn't it better just to take the most high probability trades?

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  16. Justin,
    You conviently fail to notice that I'm not saying the market isn't in a down trend. It surely is as we put in the cycle los. What I'm trying to tell you is it's on the verge of a significant bounce out of a daily cycle low and from extreme sentiment levels.

    Whether the bounce ultimately fails or not is anyones guess. If it does and the market drops back below the July low then it will be time for bears to start shorting the market (If they can't help wasting time and money on such trades)

    Ultimately the big money will be made in the gold bull and I certainly wouldn't advise anyone to get tangled up in anything else as lolg as the gold bull is intact.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Depends on your time frame. According to what I'm seeing on the charts if this is a trend reversal it is more likely just starting than ending. Basically what are in right now is a Stage 3 top if you are familiar with Stage Analysis (from the book Secrets of Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets by Weinstein). There is a chance we would go back into a Stage 2 advance from this formation but looking at the way other markets are acting I'm more of the opinion this is a topping formation.

    It takes a while for this stage to play out sometimes though, sometimes up to a year.

    ReplyDelete
  18. I hate to say it but I've heard all these reasons before and cycles and sentiment always end up overpowering everything else. Now we can throw in money flows on top of everything else.

    This will be the fourth time. Are you sure you want to risk making the same mistake 4 times in a row?

    ReplyDelete
  19. Gary, we now have the 4th confirmation of the Hindenburg Omen. We could crash any day now. I'm so scared.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Yep, I think a crash in the order of 1987 could happen next Monday, or the Monday after, or the Monday after the Monday after. Selling everything and going full short is the best play here?

    ReplyDelete
  21. You could be right we get a bounce, only time will tell. But saying bears were wrong before I think is not totally correct, given where the market is now. Like I stated before we're still just chopping, the trend really hasn't revealed itself totally yet but there are a lot of other indicators that are at least for me leaning towards the bear side.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Doc,
    Actually if we get a yearly cycle low in Dec. then the next intermediate low won't be due till late April to early June.

    Most three year cycles tend to last about 3 years and 3 months so I would fully expect the 3 year cycle to bottom in late spring with the next intermediate cycle.

    I kind of expect to test the March 08 lows during the current intermediate cycle and then to break them during the one after that.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Justin,
    Remember all technical indicators are going to be bearish at a cycle bottom. The relentelss anons have proven that over and over.

    One needs something different than technical analysis to spot turns.

    ReplyDelete
  24. I kind of expect to test the March 08 lows during the current intermediate cycle and then to break them during the one after that.

    March 09 or 08.

    thx

    ReplyDelete
  25. I guess we have a slightly different understanding of cycles. An intermediate low is always a daily low, as well. A yearly low is always an intermediate low. It stands to reason a 3-year low (or a 4-year low in equities) will always occur in conjunction with a yearly low. Otherwise you will get anomalies.

    For example, the buck, like other assets, tends to rally hard out of multi-year lows. If we get a yearly low in December and then drop to lower lows in the spring, you will have a failed yearly cycle. It would then not make sense to see a powerful rally at that time. That's why they have to occur together.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Yes the 2011 low will also be a yearly cycle low. It will be slightly short just like the Dec. 08 correction was slighly early.

    There are usually 4 yearly cycles in a 3 year cycle. I suspect this is why Tim Woods calls it a 4 year cycle even though it only lasts about 3 years or slightly longer.

    ReplyDelete
  27. I'm not sure what has turned you so against technical analysis, but it works fine for me. I could really care less if we get another bounce here or not, as long as I have the trend right. I'm willing to wait to get paid if I have the trend right.

    Topping formations take a while to play out. Patience is a virtue.

    ReplyDelete
  28. My thoughts on tues gold action:
    The spike up on high vol was impressive and I'm sure we continue higher imminently, but:

    1) sharp spikes in gold are usually retraced quickly before a more measured move up progresses (it's too tempting for the big boys to not play with the longs who scrambled in by pushing prices below their buy point); back down to 1220 or lower will shake out some of those chasers.

    2) comex option ex is thurs; the sweet spot seems to be 1200 give or take $10; they've made it there before, perhaps again. Even if not, i don't see an upside continuation until after thurs cause it puts more and more options in the money which usually doesn't happen (unless the big guys are getting overwhelmed; possible)

    I'm out still looking for an entry. I notice (and it feels like) there are many others similarly. This argues against my believe in a hold/drop to thurs. If so many people are out watching/waiting/chasing, the bull mkt will tend to not let them in.

    Regardless, my money is waiting and i'm gonna see how wed/thurs plays out. I think buying here is still dangerous, but i'm aware it's running and i'm not on the train.

    --TZguy

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  29. Justin,
    I will say this. The secular trend in stocks is certainly down and at some point the market will make another trip back down to test or break the March 09 lows.

    I'm just not sure the best time to look for that move is right as the dollar is moving down into a yearly and 3 year cycle low.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Subject: From Jim Willie


    A highly reliable sage source from the gold banking world and international consulting is loaded with deep insight, vast experience, solid connections, ongoing relationships, privileged insider information, and diverse industries tied to banking. He tipped the Jackass off in early August 2008 as to the weekend of September 15th being one to mark in history as three great failures would occur. He gave one month advanced notice of a locus of failure in three places, with great urgency. My guesses of Lehman Brothers and Fannie Mae were correct, but a blank came on the third which turned out to be AIG. He has frequently shared a viewpoint on the inevitable USTreasury default in the coming years. He first enlightened me as to the USFed resignation pathway to default, after it was loaded to the gills in toxic irredeemable impaired assets that no banks wanted. As buyers of last resort, the USFed would choke to death. Rather than a citation of path to default, he shared a great risk of a major event. He said, "The USGovt will devaluate the US$ by 50% overnight in the not too distant future. They need 11 days to do this. If they push it, they can do it in 6 days. So look for a long holiday weekend as an opportunity. The best time to do this is the Christmas / New Year time window. They tried to do it in 2005/2006, but the Chinese put a gun to their heads in Washington and they backed down. You can slice and dice it as you like, but the USDollar is dead and so is the Euro. The systemic change will be a cataclysmic and traumatic event for the West, since all it stands for will go into the toilet in a blink of an eye. The period immediately following the collapse will be filled with violence and total breakdown of law & order. Keep an eye on Greece. It is the guinea pig and incubator for what is coming to Western societies." He went on to mention some positive regenerative power left in the US people to reclaim their country and to restore its legal framework. Soberly, he warned it will be ugly, but loaded with great opportunity. So he sees a sudden massive USDollar devaluation with grand shock waves from vengeful reaction.



    end.

    ReplyDelete
  31. QUOTE:
    ===============
    thedocument said...

    I would note that cycle theory cannot simultaneously label the February intermediate low as a yearly low and also support a move above the April high. A move to new highs would require shifting the labeling of the yearly low to July because July is a lower low. Despite sentiment, I have my doubts that will occur.
    ====================
    Can i ask a favor guys?
    We regularly talk about the dollar, stocks, gold and sometimes a few other things. When you read the above from DOC, you can't tell what he is talking about (no offense). Intermediate low IN WHAT???

    Can i ask that people simple put in a single word that mentions the security they are talking about?

    Thanks for considering it.
    -TZguy

    ReplyDelete
  32. we were talking about the dollar.

    ReplyDelete
  33. QUOTE:
    ========================
    Gary said...

    Yes the 2011 low will also be a yearly cycle low. It will be slightly short just like the Dec. 08 correction was slighly early.

    There are usually 4 yearly cycles in a 3 year cycle. I suspect this is why Tim Woods calls it a 4 year cycle even though it only lasts about 3 years or slightly longer.
    August 24, 2010 7:49 PM
    =======================
    Yearly cycle low IN WHAT? what is this section talking about.

    Note, i'm suggesting that if i have to scroll higher to TRY and figure out WHICH previous post you are replying to it's too confusing. We've all been there reading on this thread and we have to keep trying to figure out who is talking about what and replying to whom.

    Just a request for all to consider adding a single word "gold" "dollar" "s&p".

    (PS: yes...if the posts were threaded we would have that problem. The option is probably there but probably not worth the trouble if we just add a single word sometimes.)

    thanks

    --TZguy

    ReplyDelete
  34. My 2nd post crossed yours gary. Wasn't trying to be rude.

    --TZguy

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  35. "institutional traders began to accumulate stock today"

    how did you come up with that?

    ReplyDelete
  36. Buying on weakness data in the WSJ.

    ReplyDelete
  37. Gary, What are you looking at that shows "bearish extremes?" None of the sentiment surveys are bearishly lopsided, none of the option ratios are especially lopsided (with the exception of the 10-day ISE), none of the Rydex stuff is bearishly skewed...so what are you looking at? I'm not challenging you, I just really would love to know.
    My gut tells me to go long, and given your cycle analysis and the BonW day I intend to, but if I saw a ton of bearishness I'd go heavy. What's the deal? Thanks, DG

    ReplyDelete
  38. DG,
    Intermediate score is again back in extreme bearish territory. Granted not in the conditions that we see at intermediate bottoms but then again this isn't an intermediate bottom it's just a daily cycle bottom.

    There are zero indicators in the bearish column (you know what I'm tlaking about) and the bullish column is at 20% again that's pretty extreme for a daily cycle low.

    Dumb money confidence is back down to 38. Again not a max but extreme for a daily cycle.

    All in all with the daily cycle going on day 38 and the BOW and the potential reversal candle on the dollar chart I think sentiment has reached bearish levels that should put a bottom in for this daily cycle.

    ReplyDelete
  39. Hussman had a good piece on the fundamentals of the dollar and why it is going to get re-priced lower. He thinks it will happen quickly and moved his fund to a 10% weighting in gold. Given todays action, it appears other like minded fund managers are buying any dip they can find.

    ReplyDelete
  40. All that non-deleveraging still going on:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Credit-card-debt-drops-to-apf-3078079177.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=

    ReplyDelete
  41. BTW -

    How much longer do you wait for the failed coil to work?

    Getting a little deep on this "coil" ain't it?

    ReplyDelete
  42. Gary: I just subscribed to you discounted yearly subscription. I´ve never used PayPal before, do you see my contact info (e-mail) when receiving payment or how do I get login?

    ReplyDelete
  43. Stefan,
    You should have the login info by now. If not check your spam filters to make sure it didn't get blocked.

    ReplyDelete
  44. Anon1,
    The coil definitely failed but I don't think the daily cycle will. Actually I know it won't. Cycles never "fail" there is always a cycle, sometimes they just stretch. I doubt this one will stretch though.

    Almost invariably a cycle stretches on the upside during a runaway move, similar to what we saw out of the Feb. bottom. Cycles don't stretch on the downside very often. If anything they tend to contract a bit during severe declines because the emotion of fear is a much stronger emotion than hope.

    Extreme bouts of fear can exhaust quicker producing slightly short cycles during bear markets.

    ReplyDelete
  45. Silver breaking out!!!

    ReplyDelete
  46. Gary,

    If indeed the SP500 put in a daily cycle bottom yesterday (need to confirm with a swing low today), it would make this most recent daily cycle right translated right?

    Would this mean that the next daily cycle would likely be also right translated? Any other implications?

    ReplyDelete
  47. This daily cycle became right translated when it rallied 26 days.

    There of course is no way to tell ahead of time what will happen during the next daily cycle. We will just have to watch as it goes along. If it can rally over 20 days then it too will be right translated.

    ReplyDelete
  48. Gary,

    How come you feel the need to answer Justina every time just because he acts like a twat? It's not his ideas I have a problem with, but his tone. He cannot be taken seriously, with crap like "it'll be interesting to watch when you're wrong". It's rubbish.

    His ideas stink too (long dollar comes to mind), but everyone is entitled to their own. I'm starting to wonder if you're a masochist for wasting time on this split personality.

    ReplyDelete
  49. Good morning Gary,

    Do you still expect today a swing low for gold below yesterday's low? I wonder if I already missed the dip. Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  50. I think he has more than two personalities btw. You can spend the entire day here talking to 10 guys, but it is just Justin. Would be funny if Gary was one of the identities. LOL

    ReplyDelete
  51. Scary thought, but I don't think G-money would waste his time like Twat Boy. :)

    ReplyDelete
  52. Hmm...maybe I am a masochist. Scary thought!

    P,
    Yes gold did complete the swing low this morning. You've hardly missed the move as this will be day one of a new cycle.

    ReplyDelete
  53. Gary,

    Did I miss something? When did gold complete the swing low this morning?

    Would not gold need to cross 1235.2today to complete the swing low?

    Or are you looking at futures data?

    Confused

    ReplyDelete
  54. Gold traded up to 1239 in the premarket.

    ReplyDelete
  55. Right ... thanks.

    Confused no more :-)

    ReplyDelete
  56. Silver is roaring this morning. G-train you were right on the money!

    ReplyDelete
  57. Gary, I see your posting throughout the nite and morning. Do u sleep? Or should I ask, how many hours of sleep do u get?

    ReplyDelete
  58. Thanks for the email alert this morning, Gary. I hadn't logged into my mail, but glad I did, as I just caught the alert.

    Justina and the others better subscribe soon. It'll save them a lot of the upcoming losses!

    ReplyDelete
  59. I usually wake up around three. Sometimes I can get back to sleep but most of the time I just give up and get on with the day.

    One of the things you young guys get to look forward to :)

    ReplyDelete
  60. 950 S&P coming.

    1020 by Friday.

    ReplyDelete
  61. I've just got to get me an "anonymous" designation so I can post valuable comments like "S&P going to 124 by Thursday at 11:14 a.m." without evidence or reasons.

    ReplyDelete
  62. I doubt it. We need a slightly lower low in order to make the swing low easier to form. Today should accomplish that with a move below 1045

    I would again suggest that shorts be prepared to cover immediately as soon as a swing forms. And if Ben announces another round of QE, and I can virtually guarantee it will come permarket, shorts are going to be trapped by a big gap up.

    ReplyDelete
  63. Gary--
    Time to start monitoring the gold/silver ratio again? At 66 looks like we have a long way to go before we reach the usual C-wave ratio of sub 50.

    ReplyDelete
  64. Holy s**t gold and silver both going vertical.

    ReplyDelete
  65. Yes this C-wave has quite a ways to go yet. This was the most massive consolidation of the entire bull market. It will likely result in the largest C-wave.

    ReplyDelete
  66. Gold is sniffing out that next round of QE :)

    ReplyDelete
  67. Hey Gary

    can you clarify what is meant by swing low, and how we started a new daily cycle? I thought in your previous post, you were expecting gold to flush below 1200 to scare people. That's what I would expect as well, instead gold just consolidated with a minor dip and is rocketing higher this morning...

    ReplyDelete
  68. You can find a detailed discription of a swing in the terminology document.

    In bull markets the surprises come on the upside. I think it's fair to say gold just surprised us.

    This is why the Old Turkey strategy is so important.

    ReplyDelete
  69. AGQ is on fire. The G-train is picking up speed. You troll babies better get the hell off the tracks. Choo choo!

    ReplyDelete
  70. Dude......

    Ten year just about to make new all time highs. See IEF.

    So did that "bubble" pop also 2 years ago?

    History shows, the 30 year is not far behind.

    ReplyDelete
  71. Gary taking Justina to the cleaners once again!

    ReplyDelete
  72. Well the 10 still has a ways to go and since the bond cycle is tied to the stock cycle most of the time I kind of doubt this will continue too much longer. Probably not long enough to break below 2.1%. The 30 year has a lot further to go.

    As much fervor as there is over bonds right now there is no question we are in the topping process of the last great bubble.

    ReplyDelete
  73. I agree with Gary and am just waiting patiently before I short the piss out of bonds.

    ReplyDelete
  74. I sure hope AGQ is only a short or intermediate term trade for you guys.

    Leveraged ETF's will always go down eventually.

    Its the math behind them.

    For example. Say you buy it at $50 and the next day silver goes up 100%. Your leveraged fund will be up 200% to $150. Now lets say the next day after that silver drops 30%. Your AGQ will drop 60% to $60. Then the third day silver goes up 50%. Your ETF will go to $90. Then silver drops 30% making your 2 beta etf drop 60% to $36. You are down. Yet silver is UP since you owned it.

    Say silver was at $10 for example sake when you started. First day it goes up 100% to $20. Next day it drops 30% to $14. Then it rises 50% to $21. Then is drops 30% to $14.7. Silver is up 47% from when you started, yet your ACG is down almost 30%.

    Just look at how BAD URE did while its underlying index IYR fell. URE is double short real estate. One would think it would be way up. It wasn't. The same will happen to you G-Train riders if you hold that thing too long.

    You have been warned.

    ReplyDelete
  75. AGQ isn't a long term hold. I will exit as soon as I think the intermediate cycle has topped. Then if I think gold has one more leg up into spring I will put it back on for the final ride up.

    I would only consider buying this at the bottom of an intermediate cycle with the odds skewed in favor of considerable upside.

    ReplyDelete
  76. Hey troll baby1 face up to the fact that you just got squashed by the G-train. Don't worry it happens to all the trolls so you aren't alone. LOL

    ReplyDelete
  77. Kinda like an option, if I ain't mistaken?

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  78. G-rock,

    If you had some extra cash to put to work right this minute, would you focus on silver miners, or something else like SLV?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  79. Me personally, I would either put it in SLW or AGQ.

    ReplyDelete
  80. In a strongly trending market, the compounding aspect of levered ETFs that usually degrade their performance can actually give them a boost.

    Perhaps the starkest example of this is the performance of DRN from the Feb. low to the April high. With IYR up steadily in that period by about 25 percent, the 3X fund more than doubled.

    The trick is that trends tend to transition into ranges or reverse, and then the ride is over. Anon1's warning is well taken.

    ReplyDelete
  81. lots of bullishness out there for PM's while making marginal new highs....looks like a good recipe for a fake out on this move up. I am a huge gold bull, but I don't think this can hold very long up here guys.

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  82. Just go Old Turkey and you won't have to second guess the market.

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  83. Anon1,

    What's your take on the Bank of Japan and the fact that they can't even keep their own currency down? Seems to me like a parallel situation for the U.S., QE2 will probably just help the dollar go higher.

    Good comments on the leveraged ETF degradation problem. The only time those will outperform is during a strong trend with no volatility. The best example I know of that is when oil crashed in 2008 DTO performed exceptionally well. But usually the volatility destroys those ETFs.

    ReplyDelete
  84. I play futures, I always have to second guess the market

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  85. Looks to me like it is the weakening Euro (as opposed to the dollar) that is driving PM's higher.

    ReplyDelete
  86. Childish anon who thinks everyone is rolled by the g-train -

    yeah thats me - short the silver market getting rolled......

    brilliant analysis that helped a lot of people here.

    Ever think less people want to here you than me?

    ReplyDelete
  87. Justin -

    It is interesting no doubt about it.

    PragCap did a great article on the meaningless-ness long term of QE.

    A good read for everyone, bear and bull alike.

    ReplyDelete
  88. Actually anon1, I'd much rather here anon than you, so put one down for anon.

    ReplyDelete
  89. I think the trolls should rename g-train anon.......

    g-string anon everytime he puts out yet another useless space waster

    ha

    ReplyDelete
  90. Can't vote for yourself there g-string

    ReplyDelete
  91. Justina has obviously never heard of the prescient Jake Gint, who thinks the dollar turd is about to get flushed:

    http://ibankcoin.com/jakegint/

    ReplyDelete
  92. Uh oh, shorties have problems now.

    ReplyDelete
  93. Why?

    The market is the same price today as it was 12 months ago.

    The stock bulls somehow killing it in 0% gain world?

    ReplyDelete
  94. Unlike you, I'm not in stocks, either direction. How many times must we tell you the same thing?

    You better quit drinking pints at breakfast.

    ReplyDelete
  95. Well then you should probably clarify such a dumb and random post.....

    Otherwise you can say you meant Sugar prices, or Wheat, when in all reality you meant stocks

    Great analysis yet again from g-string

    ReplyDelete
  96. Me doing my best G-String analysis:

    HAHA LOL all you bulls are getting hammered by the anon1 short master!!

    Next post:

    I'm referring to S loser!!!!! It's down right now.

    ooooooooooooo k

    ReplyDelete
  97. Yeah dumbass, lots of people here in sugar and wheat at the moment. LOL!

    ReplyDelete
  98. LOL??

    You use that a bit much. Seems you get a bit too much pleasure in your own adolescent name calling behind your anon name. Glad you have so much fun.

    My 15 year old niece uses LOL a ton. Do you also use ROFLMFAO?

    ReplyDelete
  99. ooooohhhhh another good one there g-string "dumbass"

    g-string 10
    anon1 0

    I just can't keep up with his wit. He even voted for himself....

    anon1 crawls back in his troll cave because g-string is just too brutal.

    ReplyDelete
  100. Alright kids am I going to give you each a time out?

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  101. Apparently I'm not the only one that finds you a great contrary indicator, as that comment wasn't mine. :)

    ReplyDelete
  102. DG:

    At currentl levels (lunchtime) your 'system' triggers a buy for today, right? did i get it?

    :-)

    -TZguy

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  103. (oops...violating my own suggestion)

    ON S&P/DOW

    -TZguy

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  104. A further clarification. What I mean is that if the dow/S&P close approx here (as i write this just before lunch), then you have a buy on your "1% gain startging tomorrow" system?

    We discussed that i suspected i knew what you were trading, roughly. I'm guessing for fun. Did i get it?

    --TZguy

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  105. Maybe I am off base with this, but I find it interesting that some of the posters, who are admittedly not subscribers to SMT, calling for the S&P and /or Dow to crash or fall to a particular level or who are long the dollar etc, keep trying to convince the readers that Gary is wrong. Only SMT subscribers know this for sure, but I wonder how many of the Subs actually trade the S&P, or Dow or Currency's? I for one do not nor do I have any interest in doing so. I know Gary doesn't either because he posts his portfolio.

    So to the Non subscribers, what is the purpose of continually bickering with Gary over these things? Are you just trying to stroke your own ego's that somehow you can prove you are smarter than Gary? Maybe you are, maybe you aren't. Why do some of you NON subs try to convince those of us who are SMT subs that we are making mistakes following his calls? Most of us Subs are and have been making money with SMT and very good money, at least in my personal situation and I know other subs are as well.

    FYI Gary: My son got over 10 offers from the Vegas showcase we attended in June and is heading of to a Prep school in western Canada this Saturday. They gave him a fantastic scholarship reducing the cost to about 30% of the sticker price. My account, thanks to following your advice, is up more than enough to cover our cost. Thanks!!

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  106. Mark Cuban said to go all cash.

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  107. Is anybody holding SWC? It's not performing nearly as well as the miners (or GLD for that matter). I'm thinking of unloading it and moving into another miner or GDXJ.
    Thanks!

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  108. Nat,
    Sounds like you are a proud father :) Congratulations.

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  109. Justin -

    Time to reign in the EUR shorts a bit here as the USD gets near the 200 MA and the EUR hits the 50% retracement from the move off the lows.

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  110. NAT -

    Has nothing to do with anything you said. I post because Gary calls us out in his posts. Calls us trolls too. I'm just countering what he says from a economic standpoint. He is right about gold, but wrong about much when it comes to economic debates. You should be thankful that others are on here testing the trades and or theories of your chosen guru. That way you can either trust the guru even more when you see the other side, or you can have the guru be revealed. It's never a safe spot when you take the time to rant asking why everyone is picking on your chosen guru. That is just "hope that he is never wrong, because I can't do this on my own" fear creeping in to your thinking.

    You should welcome other analysis, not fear it.

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  111. Gary and DG,

    What is "BonW day" or "BOW"?

    Thanks!

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  112. While I'm certainly wrong plenty of times I don't think I'm wrong on the macroeconmic views. Just standard Austrian school economics. And a firm belief that the Kondratieff cycle only applies to currencies that are backed by gold which was the case when Kondratieff wrote his theory.

    Since then the world has decoupled all currencies from any anchor thus negating the Kondratieff theory.

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  113. Buying on weakness. You can find it in the WSJ. I linked to it in yesterdays report.

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  114. Should I buy or sell silver right now?

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  115. Besides, we've seen the rigorous testing of Gary several times, right next to anon1's consistent and devastating implosions.

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  116. Anon,

    You wrote: "How come you feel the need to answer Justina every time just because he acts like a twat? It's not his ideas I have a problem with, but his tone. He cannot be taken seriously, with crap like "it'll be interesting to watch when you're wrong". It's rubbish."

    Don't know about his tone, but yours seems a bit harsh. First, you won't even call him by his name, instead using a feminine form of his name. That's not only an attempt on your part to be demeaning and insulting, but it's also sexist. In addition, you resort to name calling.

    So I'd say your complaint about "his tone" is a bit like the pot calling the kettle black.

    You don't like what Justin has to say, fine. Then give some of your reasons why his analysis might be wrong. Name calling and attempting to belittle a person just because you don't agree with them makes their argument look stronger because you have nothing to refute it other than your own bad behavior.

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  117. Why would you sell? Gold isn't even close to putting in the C-wave top yet. Heck it hasn't even made new highs yet.

    You might want to think about selling silver in 3-6 months but right now the move is just getting started.

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  118. "Besides, we've seen the rigorous testing of Gary several times, right next to anon1's consistent and devastating implosions."

    You are kidding right?

    I have been on these blogs saying gold and cash and gold and bonds for about 6 months.

    I have imploded?

    Nice try g-string

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  119. In Rosenbergs writings today. Couldn't have said it better myself.

    “We don’t believe there is any “bond bubble”. However, there is a bubble in people believing there is a “bond bubble”. Here’s how you will know if there is a bond bubble — ask your colleagues how many of them own bonds in their personal accounts. When nobody/almost nobody raises their hand you should be comforted in knowing that the prospects of the existence of a “bond bubble” have been reduced. By the way, this tactic has worked wonderfully for gold over the last decade.”

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  120. Gary, dumb question, do you count das as calendar or market when you work cycles?

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  121. Gary, do you think today's gaps will be filled before we take off?

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  122. I am in my early 70's and have been investing since the 1970's. I tend to mainly do options both selling and buying, but my emphasis is more on selling options.
    I read with interest the comments from an anonymous poster regarding the devaluing of the US dollar by 50% in 6 days. How the US will fall apart and there will be riots, etc. I have read these types of reports for years. The more outrageous the report the more books that can be sold. Gary I would be interested in your own viewpoint on this. Are we headed to armageddeon?
    This then brings up the question of the gold bull. In the early 1980's I had a friend who mortgaged everything to get into the gold bull and he sold at the top and got out with literally millions. Speaking with him a few months ago he told me that he is not in this rally but believes it will go further than anyone can guess. However he does not see the collapse of the US dollar and the end of the financial world. For one thing he told me, when he sold out of gold years back, he has kept it all in US dollars. He is not remotely worried about the US dollar and believes it will remain the currency of choice for decades to come. He said that what he learned from the last gold bull was that it is a market like everything else and when it peaks you want to sell and that means moving back to US dollars. He pointed out that Gold is priced in US dollars. I am interested in your comments on this, Gary. Thank you. Fred Harrison

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  123. Gary ... USD question. The USD topped this year ( to date ) in early June. Lets say our yearly low happens december like last year ... would you call this a right or left translated cycle, and how would you interpret that. it seems right now, unless this cycle goes long, it would be right translated ?

    peter

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  124. Meltup with shorts getting basted again.

    Pima,

    You think I'm "sexist"? Your PC claptrap is part of the reason this country is shot. Here's some news for ya, there are differences between sexes. Look downstairs. Second, not everybody is equal, or ever will be, and that explains why Justina is wrong and losing while I'm making money.

    PC people are just a nasty joke on themselves. Do you think being gay is normal, too? LOL!

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  125. Robert,
    I only count market days.

    Anon,
    No idea. But I know I certainly will not take a chance and sell any of my positions hoping that they do. If it was late in the cycle maybe I would ease up on leverage. But then GLD failed to fill its gap, which I thought it would. So betting on gap fills can be dangerous in bull markets.

    Fred,
    The dollar isn't going away anytime soon. I think the Fed will try to gradually devalue the buck the same as they have for the last 10 years. The problem comes when the debt gets too large to service. Then the Fed has to print faster and faster to stay ahead of it. Eventually the bond market will break. When that happens then we got troubles. That's probably quite a ways down the road yet.

    Peter,
    The yearly cycle is right on the fence as to whether it's right or left translated. The 3 year cycle is aready extremely left translated. When in doubt I always back out to the largest cycle and then work my way back in from there. The largest cycle will always control the smaller cycles.

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  126. I did some calculations on the SLV vs. AGQ and it looks like it takes 3. shares SLV to make the same net gain as 1 AGQ.

    But 3.4 shares SLV costs the same as 1 AGQ as well, so no sure there's much difference in buying one or the other, so I bought SLV.

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  127. G-train looks to be 4 for 4!

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  128. Got back from Appointment and I see we are having a GREAT day. WELL DONE GARY! I have just enough dry powder left to keep from chafing.

    Any minor that gets hit for no good reason will see me grab it quick.

    I hope all are in gold and silver..
    DROOY, IVN and HMY still look cheap. Maybe I will add to them..

    Anyone else care to share what they see?

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  129. Anon,
    It only matters what your percentage gain is.

    If you buy $10000 worth of SLV and make 10% you will increase your portfolio $1000.

    If you buy $10000 worth of AGQ and it goes up 20% you will increase your portfolio by $2000.

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  130. SLW is my main silver. Great business behind it and seems to follow silver well. Also hitting new all time highs.

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  131. Fred Harrison-
    Your post is much appreciated.
    I would like to add that should the USA "decide" to devalue the Dollar 50% in the near future, then that would be true Armageddon for the rest of the world, specifically the likes of Japan and China.
    For starters there is far too much international financial cooperation in such life or death financial and economic matters for such a thing to be even remotely realistic.
    Japan is wondering what they need to do exactly right now with the Yen at 15year highs against the Dollar, and at 9 year highs (yesterday) against the Euro, because their currency's strength is such a negative for their export sector which dominates their economy.
    A few months ago or last year, can't remember, James Turk or was it Jim Sinclair (one of the goldbug newsletter guys) said the Dollar was going to collapse in 60 days or something like that.
    Great marketeering.

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  132. Beep...Beep...Beep

    The sound of Gary's steamroller backing up over the shorts. :)

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  133. Gary,
    Thanks for keeping me out of UNG the other day. Look at that volume and breakdown.

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  134. Gary's cycle bottom in stocks looks imminent or to be confirmed by the end of the week, with the release of a poor GDP-figure.
    Cyclically, it seems Gold has bottomed as well, but since I don't put too much stock in these cycles I have to wonder what the commodity currencies are signalling right now.
    Aussie traded firmly below 0.88 today, and Kiwi still below 0.70, Loonie above 1.06.
    These three are also doing terribly against other majors.
    A bottom in Yen against Dollar and Euro seems to bode well for the markets in general, but I wonder what the relatively weak commodity currencies are saying.
    Could it be a bull trap and Gary's cycles go left translated?
    Just my 2 cents.
    Before anyone accuses me of being a non-follower here, be aware that I am indeed substantially LONG gold bullion (around 5% of which was purchased 7-8% off this year's high) and PM miners in my investment portfolio.

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  135. Gary,

    gold and silver aside. I just don't think the RSI levels nor the MACD in the S&P are suggesting a bottom here. I think we are still at least 5 trading days out yet before an official bottom in this wave.

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  136. thanks Gary. Peter

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  137. K,
    For this daily cycle to be left translated this early then gold would have to be on the verge of a D-wave. Seems rather remote as every D-wave in history has begun from extremely stretched conditions. Usually 20-25% above the 200 DMA.

    Obviously that isn't the case now as gold and miners started this drive very near the 200 after a year of consolidation to allow the 200 DMA to "catch up".

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  138. Gary,
    SPY showing selling on strength today - thoughts? Or is the selling on strength number too small to be worried?
    Am assuming that "news" like jobless claims > 500K and a bad GDP number are already factored in, and have nothing to do with today's SOS.

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  139. Gary
    I hear you on gold's daily cycle. Just saying anything's possible...
    If I had to bet which daily cycle would go left-translated here, I'd bet it would be the stock market cycle...

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  140. Gary:
    Any thoughts on KGJI?
    Not a miner, I know, but interesting...

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  141. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  142. Nick,
    I really didn't expect this cycle to bottom until the GDP report so may we get another down day tomorrow.

    K,
    I would say there is a distinct possiblity of a left translated cycle in stocks coming up.

    Sorry to say I know nothing about KGJI.

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  143. If a daily cycle failed (dropped below the prior daily cycle low) this early in an intermeidate cycle it would be a strong warning sign that something was wrong. I would probably exit at least half my positions immediately and then wait to see what happens before deciding to exit the rest.

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  144. Gary
    Are you talking about PM miners?

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  145. Well if gold were to fall below a prior cycle low. Miners are too volatile and can be influenced by a general market decline into a cycle low. So they would not be a reliable signal.

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  146. Or do you think GDX and juniors have kind of decoupled from the S&P?
    I can see gold and silver going up if the general stock market cycle fails, but what about the PM miners?

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  147. Other than a minor influence during stock market cycle lows the miners will ultimately follow gold.

    They like gold are in a long term secular bull market.

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  148. UNG Anonymous - breakdowns are when you start buying in increments. Don't follow the herd, particularly with Natural Gas coming into seasonally strong period. Substantial money to be made here in coming months. A break above $5 NatGas will break the downtrend and send shorts scattering, unless you think it's going to $1 or zero, then join the short party, just wear protective clothing when you blasted by the big boys. Check out the COT report to see who's going to make money here - rather be with the big boys who are lapping up this offer.

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  149. here's your USD breakdown guys! Get ready... SPX 1220, here we come!

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  150. Hello Gary,

    I find your cycle and sentiment analysis to be extremely interesting. Are there any particular books/websites etc. that have helped you to learn and improve this type of analysis? Thanks. Eric

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  151. Bought SLW puts. Sept. Strikes 21 and 22.5.

    SLW has a pattern showing exhausting momentum and has a tendency to make sharp moves down on corrections.

    I won't go broke if this doesn't work and I'm aware this is a bull mkt. But I think the risk reward is pretty good on this trade.

    --TZguy

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  152. Bought the 21 strikes at $0.19. The 22.5 strikes at $0.51.

    --TZguy

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  153. TZ,
    Over the long run you will just end up whittling away at your cash by trying to short bull markets. Remember the surprises come on the upside. And nothing is more dangerous than trying to guess a top in a stock that has broken out to new highs.

    The safer bet would be to wait patiently for a pullback and then buy the dip.

    This might be one of those trades that just isn't worth the trouble.

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