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Wednesday, May 16, 2012

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45 comments:

  1. Gold up 10 overnight, lets see if it holds. Seems like a meaningless achievement, but gdx is down substantially over the past two weeks and gold is down about 100 bucks over the same period.

    We have to start moving up at some point, or not :(

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  2. Gary,

    Are we there Yet ?
    Could this bounce be the signal that the bottom has been put. If so...should be a nice move back to where it came from...and then some.
    Right on 28 days too (?).....hmmmmmmm!!! I love the smell of shorts being burned.

    I hear JPM is going to take a long bath....more stench coming from the wires about how much bad stuff they have carried and taken a smack down on. Things are going to get real hot in the PM kitchen pretty soon. Poor Jamie...I feel for the Guy....NOT !!!

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  4. If I had to guess, I'd say the first opportunity for a PM counter rally will be when silver tags 26.15 again. The $INDU Megaphone does not suggest a very large fall in the markets (just yet) and $USD may encounter some heavy resistance near the area of the left rim of its Rounding Bottom. But if $USD explodes past that rim, or silver plummets beyond 26.15 all bets are off in my book.

    $INDU Megaphone
    http://scharts.co/MlBEeK

    $USD Rounding Bottom
    http://scharts.co/IYM7XP

    $SILVER Symmetrical Triangle
    http://scharts.co/IYMYro

    And an oldie but a goodie. $GOLD Symmetrical Triangle. 1408 Still in play? Doubtful but possible.
    http://scharts.co/Mn8mfO

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  5. DEFLATION is taking hold. ~$3T of cash being chased by ~$60T+ of debt and credit. No QEx until it is too late. metals are toast.

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  6. PORTFOLIO CHANGE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  7. Gary, you are the one that says that these down moves usualy end in an big swoosh finish. Should be the case here for the markets...stock, commods, etc.! We'll see.

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  8. Jammer, get a gripped man. I see that you are loosing it and I'm betting its due to you having too much money on the table, or your highly leveraged and playing with margin. No reason to be this crazy my friend.

    Im down over 6 figures and don't really give a shit and bought more SLW yesterday.

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  10. GOLD: Spot gold holds at $1578.50/oz, on the high side of a
    $1539.20 to $1579.11 range. After moving in lockstep with the euro and
    other currencies (inverse to the dollar), gold finally seems to be
    finding its own footing, analysts say. Saeed Amen of Nomura says earlier
    this week, in light of rising Greek tensions, they bought gold versus
    the euro, thinking that "the continuing worsening situation was likely
    to be bullish for gold from a tail risk perspective." Now, they are
    eyeing the big gap between gold versus the dollar and where US real
    yields lie. "With the likely change in this correlation, this factor is
    likely to be bullish gold," Amen says. Nomura has entered into a gold
    long around $1572, with a stop at $1500 and an initial target of $1650
    and a secondary target of $1780, he says.

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    Replies
    1. They're not the only ones buying.
      Japanense Pension Funds are ahead of the curve for the BIG BOYS.
      This was talked about last year. Wait for the real money to enter
      the market and that changes everything. Aside from CB's , Sovereigns,
      the $10 TLN Pension Funds @ 5 % investable in AU...is very bullish.
      We could see this price appreciation happen very swiftly.
      Short term there is still the possibility of lower low in AU (sub dec low).

      Delete
  11. This not the REAL bottom. We reached 5% bulls yesterday on Gold and traded 4 standard deviations outside of the mean, with RSI at second worst reading since 1999. Yes we are rallying. Yes I bought some calls.

    But no, Greece has no defaulted, so no... This is not THE low, just a low. When Greece defaults, it will be THE low. Might not come too after elections so maybe we could have a monster rally before than...

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    Replies
    1. Tiho, you suggesting we have lower to go for silver and gold?

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  12. The stock market is broken. However, I'd buy some for a rally soon enough, waiting for a short term wash out and a slight volume spike. All in all the topping is a process not an event. I'd expect a rally to 1400 or so, maybe even higher. On new highs I'd short the market wilt a doubt! Breadth has now become a disaster in the making...

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  13. Finally, the day Gary become a Dollar bear is the day it was time to turn bullish. I actually sold out of my Dollar shorts. One would argue that public Opinion is so high, it's actually time to short it again. Maybe, but systematic risk is increasing and the Dollar funding market is now squeezing again.

    Only a QE3, real money printing, will stop the Dollar. And only an economic and stock market crash will bring about QE3. Fed will have to flood the Credit Spread markets with fresh Dollars for it to be a real top. Maybe all central bankers will act together soon enough, including Super Mario.

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    Replies
    1. I became a dollar bear when the dollar made a lower low. Now sentiment is agreeing that the dollar should begin an intermediate decline soon.

      Funny I may win both bets. The dollar may make a higher high and then reverse putting in a bottom for stocks and commodities. It's starting to look like gold may have bottomed a little before the stock market, which isn't unusual.

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    2. Looks like I may turn out to be right on the crash scenario too :)

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    3. which crash scenario would that be? the dollar?

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    4. gary we will see AUD at 50-60 cents (from current 99 cents) within 2 years The USD is not going to crash. After 13 up days in a row I am covering some my long positions on it, but the bull has some ways to go. 92 on the index is a good intermediate target.

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    5. The index is a junk metric. It only measures one fiat against another.Move on..!!

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    6. I suppose u pay for your groceries in PMs these days?

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    7. Not YET..!!
      Whats that got to do with the index anyway ?
      Fiat is convenience for goods and services. Noticed recently how many more of those paper notes you use to pay for groceries ??
      The INDEX is an INDEX...an outdated and meaningless INDEX. It is so last century.

      Delete
    8. Sorry LM, you lost me at "NOT YET..!!"

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    9. Answer this.
      Is a stronger USD ( as measured by ur INDEX)...Inflationary or Deflationary ?

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    10. Deflationary biased although not guaranteed.

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  14. Good Morning to all. I have been following this site and Gary's comments for quite some time. I am always impressed with Gary's knowledge and tell it like it is investment approach. Miners appear to be bucking the trend today which is a development that should be followed closely.

    Marketcycles79

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  15. http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/ssi/table/2012/05/17/ssi_table_story.html

    The Dow Jones-FXCM US Dollar Index (ticker: USDOLLAR) rallied to a fresh yearly high of 10,141 and our proprietary Speculative Sentiment Index certainly reinforces a bullish outlook for the greenback as the retail trading crowd fades the underlining strength in the reserve currency.

    As the developments coming out of Europe continue to drag on market sentiment, the drop in risk-taking behavior has certainly increased the appeal of the greenback, and the reserve currency looks poised to track higher in the days ahead as the flight to safety gathers pace. In light of the headline-drive market, we should see risk sentiment continue to dictate price action across the major currencies, and retail traders are certainly running the risk of getting caught on the wrong side of the market as they raise bets for a short-term correction.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. WHAT ? The USD is a risk-less trade....wtf ???
      Someone needs their head read. Maybe all the attention and focus on TBTF Banks
      has taken some action off the market.
      The USD is the beneficiary of the EURO weakness...QUID PRO QUO.
      Interesting dont ya think that Gold catches a massive bid on physical during these times.
      Where exactly is the safe haven. FIAT or PHYSICAL ??...OR ....

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    2. The safest place is in bonds. Not only are they are out performing all assets, they do better in low inflation or deflationary environments. Gold never rallied until bonds became over priced.

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  16. MARKETS

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

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  17. It will be interesting to watch if the miners will hold a higher low in the coming two weeks.

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  18. Miners held well after a important pivot. For anyone who is interested my friend has wonderful trading background and his site can be found below. I highly recommend his service. Like Gary's it is unique, well worth it, and not found elsewhere in the market. You may use my name as a reference.

    http://humblestudent777.blogspot.com/

    Marketcycles79

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  19. Interesting that gold was not slammed down during the day; I think the crooks were busy shredding evidence.

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  20. Betting all your cards on a pullback in the dollar is pretty risky. Hopefully PMs will pull one of those stunts where they rally for a few weeks with the dollar. That's really your best hope.

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  21. The stock market, not the dollar. Most runaway moves like we saw out of the Oct. bottom end in some kind of crash or semi-crash. This one has been very unusual though with the double top. I guess it's just a product of massive liquidity, but it looks like we are still going to get the crash scenario.

    That will almost certainly trigger another round of printing since it worked to rescue the market in 2010 & 11. There's no reason to believe they won't try again.

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    Replies
    1. You're saying the DOW will crash but PMs will possibly rally along with USD? I guess that is possible, so long as the crash is not too prolonged.

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    2. A Crash is only possible if a black swan event presents. A triggering event.
      We havent got the bubble mentality existing with mass participation in stocks. In fact breadth is very narrow and volumes weak. So where is the unwinding going to come from.
      Those holding up the markets are the ones who have been entrusted to keep it from imploding. Volatility is the trade these days and for the future.
      There is a bubble however in BONDS. That is where the real bubble is. They are priced to perfection and now indicate (with the miniscule and falling yield) that all is not good with the world economies.
      Greece is factored into stocks already. Too much liquidity is sloshing around the world.
      We should start thinking about alternatives to the outright QE.
      The Twist or LTRO or more swap lines......
      USD strength is the inverse of the EURO. GOLD is a beneficary of stress, fear and debasement.

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    3. I don't think Gary was talking about a 2008 style crash. Rather your garden variety crash.

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    4. I don't think Gary was talking about a 2008 style crash. Rather your garden variety crash.

      Delete
  22. Gold making a natural pull back after extreme OVERSOLD conditions.

    However Gold still in a DOWNTREND, as is the stockmarket. Miners will take a BIG hit soon.

    I reckon the subscribers are gonna take another double-digit hit soon to add to the huge draw down on this current trade.

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    Replies
    1. OK Rich. And when your crystal ball says its time to go long, please make that call the evening before too.

      Delete
  23. I suspect the more likely outcome is that those who violate rule #1 (never, never, never, never, never, short a bull market) are about to get their head handed to them.

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  24. My gold futures system will go to a buy at 1581.5, good through tonight/tomorrow.

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