Trading futures can be gut wrenching. I bought a gold contract right before Bernanky's news release and watched gold tank. I held on though and sold a little later for a nice profit. Had my excitment for the day :)
Bad memory (me), who was it? Tiho, Saif? Actually, I am not sure we are not getting into the mania stage earlier than some people think. I have to say I nailed selling last week and scaling into the weakness this week.
Looks like we dont need confirmation with actual QE...words from both sides of the Atlantic are sending clear messages. No selloff in Pm's...in fact support has stepped up and resistance is but a whisker away from testing/violation then some pretty decent moves higher. I am very bullish miners here...expecting 6-12 months of 2X ++ moves. Any one got any spare rocket fuel.
Oh ..btw...who said something about China imploding ??? They too are about to crank up the presses.
Gary...Im concerned about the USD here...looking quite sad...incomplete on downside move...how many days left in cycle again ? Possible for an extreme cycle extension...markets are all factoring in the inevitable. VIX is showing on an historical basis...that something needs to happen with the s&p..imo..not going to happen. Sentiment in gold/silver is the driving force pushing them higher but momentum still absent. It will come ...thats what the waiting is for. Patience.
I was just reading some rules Jesse Livermore followed. It made me realize not all rules work for all people. Jesse said ALWAYS set firm stop losses. Warren Buffett would say that is bull, because he likes to average down into a position.
Anyone want to play contrarian....I read an interesting piece on the most underrated commodity which is set to "Explode" higher in the s-m term. Get set now (i've done my rounds and collected some decent plays) in URANIUM. If I read this correctly there is potential there for exponential moves because of price pressures (supply). Some things have gone under the radar of late..but the "BIGGIE" development is BHP not proceeding with its planned expansion of the world's largest uranium deposit. Energy and Food are the commodities of this and the next few decades. Just as there will be more corporate activity in the PM sector...keep your eyes on the Energy and Food sectors. The CRB going higher, much higher is a no brainer.
Regardless of what Bernank is saying, they're already providing liquidy. Today proves that they don't have to anounce it, the market already knows they don't have a choice. just my 2$ worth - ya know...inflation :)
In Hindsight ...do U think that was a smart play ? All that talk about being contrarian ...hmmmmmm...wtf ? Buy and hold my friend....all you need is one to be a ten bagger and all your worries are solved. BUT you cant achieve that if ur selling into strength. (That 10X stock I mentioned earlier is now 12X and still holding it). Momentum , when it comes into play, will catch u out...guaranteed. Me I'm getting smashed around the ring every week with volatility...but clear positive moves w o w, mtd & ytd. I know where this things headed ultimately...the ship cannot be stopped. Conviction...(right Gary).
Yeah noticed that... he's been repeating the same lines since Feb 12 but everyone knows the diff b/w bs and the truth. True markets cannot function without liquidity ..and there's an abundance of it going around..those guys at the FED are really something to behold...NOT.
EZ is a different dilemma altogether. They will actually do something (bond program) and announce it. That's the driver of this market. It will once and for all settle the uneasiness and default concerns....but it wont remove the Debt issue. More than likely it will refocus the attention on the US and highlight the fact, USA is worse than EZ.
LM, Selling strength last week and buying weekness this week is the kind of trades I have done for years that have allowed me to beat the markets. If you find that you just have such a strong gut feel that you just act on your convictions, then yes, it is the right thing, at least for me. I wouldn't advise most people to trade like me though. I am 54 and I have been trading since I was a teenager, so sometimes I just have a "I have been here before" sense. Most times it works, sometimes it doesn't. Today though reminded me of trading during the dot.com era though.
Yes somewhat reminiscent of the dot com era...only this time there are fundamentals at play. All the technicals are proving it too. IMO..to trade the wiggles in this market is foolish, even though we have all tried to do it. U can beat it some times but net it will slaughter U. Some of the best advice I have received is to be right and sit tight. JL was the master. Those who sold yesterday into weakness /last week into strength are like those who run to the hills in the midst of battle...only later to return to find that their side had won that battle after all...they enjoy neither the spoils nor the honor. Stay on the winning side. Continued good luck in ur trading.
I looked at Uranium a while back and couldn't get excited. If it is true that it is going to "explode" then it has been building for quite a while. Hope it isn't another "rare earth" type of story, for your sake :)
No, that would make no sense. What you could do (if one GC is too much juice for you) is short 1-4 MGC against it. Or simply buy as many MGC as you are comfortable with and forget about GC.
Liquid, We have two portfolio's. One is pure Old Turkey play that isn't traded. We only add to positions at ICL's.
The other is the model portfolio. I try to avoid ICL's with that portfolio because no matter how easy it is to say most people are not emotionally capable of riding out an ICL. They end up freaking out and selling at the bottom.
Yes it does seem likely that one of the dissidents has changed his google name and is now trying a different approach since the first one failed and all my expectations have come to pass.
Rather than admit I was right they disappear from the blog. Sometimes they change their name and try a second time :)
dips have been bought aggressively
ReplyDeleteTrading futures can be gut wrenching. I bought a gold contract right before Bernanky's news release and watched gold tank. I held on though and sold a little later for a nice profit. Had my excitment for the day :)
ReplyDeleteLyon,
ReplyDeleteIf you buy one /GC at a time, you can hedge it by shorting several of the /MGC for the same expiration month. The MGC is 1/10 the size of the GC.
Actually I don't think of shorting MGC against GC as a "hedge" per se...it just smooths out the magnitude of the swings.
ReplyDeleteWouldn't shorting 10 MGC contract and going long one GC cancel out each other? I hate the slippage on the MGC contracts though.
ReplyDeleteKudos to Garys cycles for getting the timing right on the dollar.
ReplyDeleteMining stock getting a very nice bid today. Some of my recent buys: EGO +4.76%, EXK +8.37%, NG +5.28%, OGC.TO + 7.85%. Sweet.
ReplyDeleteWho was it that was schooling me on some obscure chart pattern in silver that was supposed to lead to much lower prices?
ReplyDeleteNow you see why I don't put a lot of faith in chart patterns.
Bad memory (me), who was it? Tiho, Saif? Actually, I am not sure we are not getting into the mania stage earlier than some people think. I have to say I nailed selling last week and scaling into the weakness this week.
ReplyDeleteLooks like we dont need confirmation with actual QE...words from both sides of the Atlantic are sending clear messages. No selloff in Pm's...in fact support has stepped up and resistance is but a whisker away from testing/violation then some pretty decent moves higher.
ReplyDeleteI am very bullish miners here...expecting 6-12 months of 2X ++ moves. Any one got any spare rocket fuel.
Oh ..btw...who said something about China imploding ??? They too are about to crank up the presses.
Gary...Im concerned about the USD here...looking quite sad...incomplete on downside move...how many days left in cycle again ? Possible for an extreme cycle extension...markets are all factoring in the inevitable.
VIX is showing on an historical basis...that something needs to happen with the s&p..imo..not going to happen.
Sentiment in gold/silver is the driving force pushing them higher but momentum still absent. It will come ...thats what the waiting is for. Patience.
I was just reading some rules Jesse Livermore followed. It made me realize not all rules work for all people. Jesse said ALWAYS set firm stop losses. Warren Buffett would say that is bull, because he likes to average down into a position.
ReplyDeleteAnyone want to play contrarian....I read an interesting piece on the most underrated commodity which is set to "Explode" higher in the s-m term. Get set now (i've done my rounds and collected some decent plays) in URANIUM. If I read this correctly there is potential there for exponential moves because of price pressures (supply). Some things have gone under the radar of late..but the "BIGGIE" development is BHP not proceeding with its planned expansion of the world's largest uranium deposit.
ReplyDeleteEnergy and Food are the commodities of this and the next few decades. Just as there will be more corporate activity in the PM sector...keep your eyes on the Energy and Food sectors. The CRB going higher, much higher is a no brainer.
Regardless of what Bernank is saying, they're already providing liquidy. Today proves that they don't have to anounce it, the market already knows they don't have a choice. just my 2$ worth - ya know...inflation :)
ReplyDeleteLyon,
ReplyDeleteIn Hindsight ...do U think that was a smart play ? All that talk about being contrarian ...hmmmmmm...wtf ? Buy and hold my friend....all you need is one to be a ten bagger and all your worries are solved. BUT you cant achieve that if ur selling into strength. (That 10X stock I mentioned earlier is now 12X and still holding it). Momentum , when it comes into play, will catch u out...guaranteed.
Me I'm getting smashed around the ring every week with volatility...but clear positive moves w o w, mtd & ytd. I know where this things headed ultimately...the ship cannot be stopped.
Conviction...(right Gary).
Yeah noticed that... he's been repeating the same lines since Feb 12 but everyone knows the diff b/w bs and the truth. True markets cannot function without liquidity ..and there's an abundance of it going around..those guys at the FED are really something to behold...NOT.
ReplyDeleteEZ is a different dilemma altogether. They will actually do something (bond program) and announce it. That's the driver of this market. It will once and for all settle the uneasiness and default concerns....but it wont remove the Debt issue. More than likely it will refocus the attention on the US and highlight the fact, USA is worse than EZ.
LM,
ReplyDeleteSelling strength last week and buying weekness this week is the kind of trades I have done for years that have allowed me to beat the markets. If you find that you just have such a strong gut feel that you just act on your convictions, then yes, it is the right thing, at least for me. I wouldn't advise most people to trade like me though. I am 54 and I have been trading since I was a teenager, so sometimes I just have a "I have been here before" sense. Most times it works, sometimes it doesn't. Today though reminded me of trading during the dot.com era though.
Lyon,
ReplyDeleteYes somewhat reminiscent of the dot com era...only this time there are fundamentals at play. All the technicals are proving it too.
IMO..to trade the wiggles in this market is foolish, even though we have all tried to do it. U can beat it some times but net it will slaughter U. Some of the best advice I have received is to be right and sit tight. JL was the master.
Those who sold yesterday into weakness /last week into strength are like those who run to the hills in the midst of battle...only later to return to find that their side had won that battle after all...they enjoy neither the spoils nor the honor.
Stay on the winning side.
Continued good luck in ur trading.
I looked at Uranium a while back and couldn't get excited. If it is true that it is going to "explode" then it has been building for quite a while. Hope it isn't another "rare earth" type of story, for your sake :)
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteLyon @9:23
ReplyDeleteNo, that would make no sense. What you could do (if one GC is too much juice for you) is short 1-4 MGC against it. Or simply buy as many MGC as you are comfortable with and forget about GC.
hi gary.
ReplyDeletewhats your target gold silver ratio in two or three years?
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteTrade Copier launched
ReplyDeleteYou will never miss another trade calls from C3X
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ReplyDeleteLiquid,
ReplyDeleteWe have two portfolio's. One is pure Old Turkey play that isn't traded. We only add to positions at ICL's.
The other is the model portfolio. I try to avoid ICL's with that portfolio because no matter how easy it is to say most people are not emotionally capable of riding out an ICL. They end up freaking out and selling at the bottom.
Yes it does seem likely that one of the dissidents has changed his google name and is now trying a different approach since the first one failed and all my expectations have come to pass.
ReplyDeleteRather than admit I was right they disappear from the blog. Sometimes they change their name and try a second time :)