Saturday, February 2, 2013

Weekend report

Considering the extreme complacency in the stock market, (I’m starting to hear multiple calls for a new secular bull market) it would probably be fitting that the next crisis is now sneaking up on us completely out of the blue as the Japanese currency begins to collapse. By the way secular bear markets don’t end until PE ratios reach extreme levels of undervaluation. Notice in the lower chart the extreme levels from which this bear market began (PE’s above 40). I think we can safely assume that this bear market is not going to be any different than any other one. 

It certainly didn’t end with a PE ratio of 15 when every other bear market in history ended below 10 and every one of them began from much lower valuation levels (usually with PE ratios about 20-25). This bear market has much bigger excesses to clear than any other bear in history. The rubber band got much further stretched to the upside this time. Normal regression to the mean forces will demand that the bear market should be deeper and more severe than probably any other bear in history.


So I don’t think we need to take anyone calling for a new secular bull market in stocks seriously. I think we all know this is about currency debasement, as there is no new technology to drive a new secular bull market yet.

I warned traders that we were about to enter the euphoria phase of the cyclical bull. This is an ending phase by the way. But the end of a bull can span many months and even a year or more, which is why I keep warning the shorts to be patient.

More in the weekend report

24 comments:

  1. “But who prays for Satan? Who, in eighteen centuries, has had the common humanity to pray for the one sinner that needed it most?”
    ― Mark Twain

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  2. Where'd that comment come from?

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  3. In reference to your article of January 17, I see GDX is down to 42.36. If it's a round bottom it's shaped irregularly. What is your prognosis for GDX now? With all the banks printing when will GDX get moving?

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  4. Driver,

    LOL. I just figured the first comment just be something profound.

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  5. ohhhh, this is strage.... feels weird.... such is life... constant change...
    Aussie & CAD look ready.... we will see if the DXY will hold up until Friday...

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  6. OK, so who wrote the following: http://www.goldscents.blogspot.com/ ???

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  7. Aftershock Mutual Fund |

    New aftershock Fund: SHKNX
    released: Aftershock Mutual Fund | Top 10 Holdings

    Since the Aftershock Strategies Fund has only been in operation a short time, we are still in the process of setting our trading positions. We expect to be able to post our positions on this page in early February. Our positions as of January 15, 2013 are shown below. These positions are subject to change after that date. The large cash position will decline and we will update this page when we become more fully invested.
    Cash Cash 63.2%
    TIP iShares Barclays TIPS Bond Fund 16.6%
    SH ProShares Short S&P 500 5.56%
    PHYS Sprott Physical Gold Trust 4.07%
    XLU Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund 2.98%
    RWM ProShares Short Russell 2000 2.59%
    CEF Central Fund of Canada LTD 2.53%
    SLW Silver Wheaton 1.42%
    DOG ProShares Short Dow30 1.08%

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  8. Well, the public blog was open when gold and silver were last seen kicking butt. Maybe THIS will break the slump.

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    1. True. We'll also know to sell when this place becomes the SAVAGE FORE PRUSIDENT@#$@# homepage again.

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  9. Interesting..... will the metals follow the DXY move higher?

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consequences-of-a-strong-dollar-andy-xie-2013-02-04?dist=tcountdown

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  10. Heads up,

    That post was written by John Townsend. He is Gary's business partner. But since he wrote it on the goldscents blog he used the pen name Toby Connor.

    Both Gary and John has their own respective blogs, but whenever either writes a post at the goldscents blog they use the pen name Toby Connor.

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    1. Correction: Both Gary and John have their ....

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  11. The biggest problem I see on all stock blogs and forums is not that your chosen market (PMs) is going down when it should be going up. The biggest problem is that no one seems to know how to trade stocks. All thought is spent trying to guess which way PMs will move next. Very little thought is spent on the mechanics of trading. This is completely backwards. A good trading system should provide considerable safety and more than one or two opportunities to make a profit. I don't see that around the web. I see an all or nothing attitude and risk that is so far out of whack it is amazing anyone survives.

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  12. From Harvey Organ

    Thus the total number of gold ounces standing in this active month of February is as follows:

    1,024,800 oz (served ) + 246,500 oz (to be served upon) = 1,271,300 oz or 39.51 Tonnes.

    can or should this drive the price higher ?

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  13. Anonymous, not everyone is a trader some have longer investment time frame. Someone I know uses an average down strategy and he is prepared to average down 10 times each time buying larger than the previous. It seems like he is doing very well with his own method.

    Today gold action looks good. Need to close above the 50days MA

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  14. Gold won't bust the 50dma in the next month. In fact I expect gold to retest the summer lows in the next month. The HUI is headed for the low 400's or even high 300's before TPTB decide to take their boot off the neck of PMs

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  15. This isn't 2006 where the HUI's MAs remained in bullish configuration. This is the exact opposite.

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  16. Once the December lows in gold and silver are taken out, Gary is going to finally throw in the towel and blame manipulation, which is the biggest crock.

    If the dec lows were going to hold, the HUI would be acting a LOT better. Instead, it's a few trading days from its May low.

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  17. I firmly believe that it is the falling yen that is keeping PMs from rising. Yesterday when the yen bounced, gold/silver bounced nicely too. PMs will turn only when the yen does!

    There is a major support at 105-106 area in the $XJY and the yen is almost there. Things should make a strong V-turn as soon as soon as the yen enters this range! And that shall launch the PMs.

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    1. Banking on a strong yen isn't a good investment thesis. Tell me why the yen shouldn't be shorted into oblivion other than its technically oversold.

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    2. The yen can certainly keep on dropping. But I'm afraid that the PMs will stay suppressed for quite a while before they decouple (from yen). And that could be months away!

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  18. Kyle Bass play via Simon Property Group? Looks good, but everyone is saying the equities bull is long in the horn. Check it out: SPG - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

    Thoughts? *bort*

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