We have moved!


Please visit our new blog at: http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com to read the latest posts and to comment.

Thursday, January 16, 2014


You would think with all the preaching this guy does about patience he would understand what a long term position is. I think the cyclical bull is nearing an end. I doubt I will be able to pick a perfect top (but I'm certainly closer than Monkey boy) the 2016 puts are a bet that we will be in a bear market (and probably close to a bottom) by early 2016.

Now in regard to the short term: When the Fed blatantly aborted what was almost certainly the beginning of at least a daily cycle degree correction, and probably an intermediate degree as well, on Tuesday I think it may have set the stage for a final melt up bubble top over the next 2-3 months. It seems clear the Fed isn't going to allow the market to correct meaningfully ahead of Yellen taking office.

If the market feels there is no risk and the Fed is willing to continue to pump 75 billion a month then we could have the conditions for a final bubble top.

Possibly even seeing the Nasdaq test the all time highs above 5000 over the next few months.

Stops are close. Right below Monday's intraday low. So the risk is only a little over 3%. But if we do get a final melt up the potential gain is about 20%. I like those odds for a short term trade.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Please see the link below to comment on the new blog.

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.