Unfortunately this is what happens to most traders. They can't buy until their emotions tell them the coast is clear. That usually occurs right about at a daily cycle top. Then they freak out and sell at the bottom of a normal correction because they suffered a drawdown instead of holding through it and waiting for the next leg up.
Fortunately we now have a huge cushion on our positions and we don't have to succumb to this temptation ever again during this bull market.
Sorry G-Man but when I see red lines drawn "to the moon" I and other SMTers can't help but have flashbacks to the failed leap call strategy on SLV whether they be the 2014's or the 2015's that will most likely expire worthless. Anyone, including me who thinks thatthey know "what comes next" ia nothing more than a carnival barker. For all you, me or anyone elae knows the early May low in the $USD was successfully tested and its ICL is getting ready to flushthe entire metal and mining complex below what looks like a "double bottom" or an "inverse head and shoulders" pattern.
P.S. Thank God that investor sentiment towards metalsand miners is still apathetic and nobody believes; otherwise the drop down into the DCL low might get disorderly. Most longs have 1/4 or 1/2 long positions on at best w/ many on the sidelines having recently taken profits at what appearsto be the DCH. A good 5-10% rip higher in the $HUI or the $XAU would have the bugs panic buying in long along with short-term traders positioned bearish like Rambus covering shorts and flipping back long.
That's were we have a huge advantage over everyone else. We already have a big cushion on our original trade. If the market turns and goes against us we will simply stop out with at least some of our profit intact and go back to sitting on the sidelines. That's the huge advantage of cycles when used properly. They get you in at or very close to the bottom with a very close stop.
I agree with Ken...I predict that the subscribers will continue to underperform T-bills, or cash stuffed in a mattress, over the long haul. I'm not saying they can't get lucky for a year or 2, in a full-on bull, but they still won't beat simple buy and hold of GDX. They will get chopped to pieces if they try to follow Gary's trading advice during the choppy consolidation periods or during the corrections. Cycles are just another failed method of attempting to time the market. (and when they fail to work...Gary just blame it on manipulation...LOL)
I doubt that will happen, and doubt your subscribers will beat a simple buy and hold of GDX in a metals bull market. You already owe a lot of burritos from 2013...let's see if this time ultimately works out differently....I highly doubt it.
Oh, and I'll point out that the subscribers first need to recover their prior losses and get back to even before they can even start to fantasize about things like financial independence!
I have been following you on the Korelin show and mulling a paid subscription. I had a wild ride in gold equities from late 2008 to early 2011 where my portfolio went 10x. Then like most I got caught in the cyclical correction and lost ~75% from peak. Times are a changing and am looking to deploy some additional cash over next couple of months. My nightmare scenario holding me back is a 2008 style meltdown taking gold and mining stocks with it. Since the general stock markets will crash, why do think gold will be left untouched?
2008/09 was a one time event that isn't likely to happen again for another 100 years or more. Central banks will be proactive from now on and prevent that from happening. Now the worry is that they go too far in the other direction and create hyperinflation.
I really loved the second chart....ROFL!
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately this is what happens to most traders. They can't buy until their emotions tell them the coast is clear. That usually occurs right about at a daily cycle top. Then they freak out and sell at the bottom of a normal correction because they suffered a drawdown instead of holding through it and waiting for the next leg up.
ReplyDeleteFortunately we now have a huge cushion on our positions and we don't have to succumb to this temptation ever again during this bull market.
Sorry G-Man but when I see red lines drawn "to the moon" I and other SMTers can't help but have flashbacks to the failed leap call strategy on SLV whether they be the 2014's or the 2015's that will most likely expire worthless. Anyone, including me who thinks thatthey know "what comes next" ia nothing more than a carnival barker. For all you, me or anyone elae knows the early May low in the $USD was successfully tested and its ICL is getting ready to flushthe entire metal and mining complex below what looks like a "double bottom" or an "inverse head and shoulders" pattern.
DeleteP.S. Thank God that investor sentiment towards metalsand miners is still apathetic and nobody believes; otherwise the drop down into the DCL low might get disorderly. Most longs have 1/4 or 1/2 long positions on at best w/ many on the sidelines having recently taken profits at what appearsto be the DCH. A good 5-10% rip higher in the $HUI or the $XAU would have the bugs panic buying in long along with short-term traders positioned bearish like Rambus covering shorts and flipping back long.
That's were we have a huge advantage over everyone else. We already have a big cushion on our original trade. If the market turns and goes against us we will simply stop out with at least some of our profit intact and go back to sitting on the sidelines. That's the huge advantage of cycles when used properly. They get you in at or very close to the bottom with a very close stop.
DeleteI agree with Ken...I predict that the subscribers will continue to underperform T-bills, or cash stuffed in a mattress, over the long haul. I'm not saying they can't get lucky for a year or 2, in a full-on bull, but they still won't beat simple buy and hold of GDX. They will get chopped to pieces if they try to follow Gary's trading advice during the choppy consolidation periods or during the corrections. Cycles are just another failed method of attempting to time the market. (and when they fail to work...Gary just blame it on manipulation...LOL)
DeleteIt's going to be with extreme pleasure when I make you eat those words over the next 2-3 years.
DeleteI doubt that will happen, and doubt your subscribers will beat a simple buy and hold of GDX in a metals bull market. You already owe a lot of burritos from 2013...let's see if this time ultimately works out differently....I highly doubt it.
DeleteOh, and I'll point out that the subscribers first need to recover their prior losses and get back to even before they can even start to fantasize about things like financial independence!
DeleteI have been following you on the Korelin show and mulling a paid subscription. I had a wild ride in gold equities from late 2008 to early 2011 where my portfolio went 10x. Then like most I got caught in the cyclical correction and lost ~75% from peak. Times are a changing and am looking to deploy some additional cash over next couple of months. My nightmare scenario holding me back is a 2008 style meltdown taking gold and mining stocks with it. Since the general stock markets will crash, why do think gold will be left untouched?
ReplyDelete2008/09 was a one time event that isn't likely to happen again for another 100 years or more. Central banks will be proactive from now on and prevent that from happening. Now the worry is that they go too far in the other direction and create hyperinflation.
ReplyDeleteBut that means the general stock markets keep going up?
ReplyDeleteMy expectation is that stocks will enter a very complex bear market similar to what happened from 37-42.
DeleteGary, what do you consider a full position?
ReplyDelete90%. I usually leave a little bit just in case of an extraordinary opportunity were to arises.
ReplyDelete