also last time i swear- but the rug has been pulled out so hard in /gc that the last time there was this amount of money in it it was trading at 1617. and dropping.
A few days ago someone posted a link to an interview on king world gold. I listened to it and then got sucked into a bunch more. Fascinating! I had no idea there was so much going on with gold and silver.
Embarrassed to say I listened to maybe 10 of those things. Anyway, I won't ask all the questions I have here but I do have one.
There was a man on from Utah who was involved with passing a law to make gold legal tender in Utah. They made it sound like items purchased with gold are NOT subject to sales tax?
I can't access SMT either - listen - don't short gold. It's a very "bad odds" trade since the odds are unclear. The trends should be predictable to increase odds - right now it's like being a bug in a pool after a very large person just did a canon-ball...
Hope you din't mind me saying it's a bit early to claim victory on your gold call just because it's pulled back 2 days thus far.
Even my remaining 30% of PHYS is still up 12%.
For those interested, my overall P+L on total combined outstanding positions did just poke into negative territory (not including the PHYS trade that was already trimmed last week).
And I'd wager the action portends even lower prices in metals/miners the next few days, so not in there adding today. Might, but prob not.
SB, The problem is 95% of all my subscribers are not like you. Despite my many warnings they take too large of position sizes and then they get knocked out at bottoms. So I don't have the luxury of ignoring intermediate degree declines or worse D-Wave declines. If I do a lot of people lose money and then get permanently knocked off the bull market.
And yes I know it's easy to say that it's their fault but that's still doesn't help me to keep people riding this bull market.
You're right on the money with that comment. I have always understood you are subjected to much more pressure by the fact you have subs.
Anyway, I hope don't take my comments the wrong way. It really does depend on where one buys, their outlook that is.
Perhaps I'm just talking myself through this trade to get to the other side, as it's also not easy seeing huge gains given back, even if for the bigger prize. :)
I know this is a gold bug blog and all, but while you are over analyzing gold, Sugar is the place to be as I let you know last week. SGG is making new highs today.
Today Gary finally gets to say "I told you" only a month or so late.
Gold volatility due mostly to Comex Opt. Ex. and perfect storm of run up. I'm sure you'll be late to catch up thinking you are in that much talked about D wave. - Whatever ~
vistor, In case you haven't figured it out by now I am almost always early. It's better to be early than late as we were so painfully shown in May.
And we have a very clear signal that will tell us if this is just a daily cycle decline or the beginning of a D-Wave which you would know if you had read last night's report.
Zerohedge explanation for this gold drop is humorous. It has nothing to do with gold ring stretched relative to the 200dmva and extreme sentiment all based on markets digesting "news from 2 days ago."
i have a question though- is the preference for QQQ based solely on the intrinsic mania behind aapl/nflx/amzn? i tend to stick with SPY just because it's easier to track what the funds are doing.
Gary - should your dedicated server run out of juice as well, next time ask Gurvir to consider that cost to convert and monthly running cost to hot the site on the Amazon EC2 environment. It may end up being comparable in cost to a dedicated server and can handle huge spikes.
I think Gary can claim victory on his gold call. I think it's great that he was right cause my hedge is exploding in value!! I am cheering for gold and silver to tank here (even though I am very long). This is EXACTLY why people hedge. Of course, Gary could have been off by $200 and that's why I wanted to stay long. Gold could have rocketed past $2,000 no problem. You never know. It's all a guessing game. At least Gary makes educated guesses and his charts are cool. Good work!
I show SGG at 103.07 - Could you please share why you think it'll make new highs today (over 107, right?), and how long of a term you would hold it? Any stops?
Gold will either bounce off its Bollinger Band mid line around $1733 or it won't. If it does not then we go lower to the 50 SMA at $1623. Course it may take a few days of bobbing around the BB mid line before we'll know. IMHO.
So gold goes up, you make money. Gold goes down, you make money? Doubt it.....why not just invest the difference of your long position less your short and you'd be in the same boat less those brokerage fees and margin for error/headache of managing umcessary positions.
Hedging is for the big boys that move markets with their trades.
I bought shares (long). I hedged with put options.
The put options in increase in value faster than the long shares lose value. Not on a mild pull back, but on a sharp pull back they will and this appears to be the case. I'm not yet a break even but if this keeps up I will actually make money, plus I will still have all those long shares on the way back up.
You need to buy a few books. Maybe I shouldn't talk about this stuff here. Options are dangerous if used improperly. Wickedly dangerous.
If gold continued to go up then you threw money away on your hedges. If you miss time the bottom and gold goes back up, then you threw money away on your hedges again.
Now you have to time the bottom of the correction correctly in order to make money on your hedges.
Like I said if you wanted to stay market neutral all you had to do was sell. Now you have to manage two positions instead of one.
"Euro/US Dollar options sentiment continues to recover from bearish extremes, suggesting the EURUSD has further room to run to the topside amidst broader US Dollar losses. CFTC Commitment of Traders data likewise shows that Non-Commercial traders have once again turned net-long after falling net-short *for the first time since January.*
And though one week hardly makes a trend, we see risks that a continued correction could force a noteworthy EUR break to the topside."
I hear what you're saying man. The only thing that matters is that I make money in the end. With my method I can be very wrong and still win. That is what options are for. I am not against EVER selling shares. I just felt there was a chance that gold (but especially silver) could vault significantly higher.
I had the same strategy, very small of course. Sold my GLD puts this morning and made money. now have a stop in place on GLD shares. Even if the stop gets hit, I've made money on the trade. If it doesn't get hit, I'll buy enough puts at the end of the day to cover any downside overnight. I'll keep doing this until Gary calls the bottom in Gold.
Gary was on a virtual server. Just dual core with 4gb ram. Moving over to a dedicated dual xenon with 8 cores, 8gb ram and raid 10 config. This should handle the load at least until the next C wave when people going to be causing huge spikes again! The user base on the premium site could possibly triple in size in which case we might need to beef up a bit more.
Glad to hear it. Now I don't feel so lonely around here. lol. I'm going to the movies. Silver is wounded here. Will take a few weeks to recover. I sold more covered calls (way out of the money). When we feel a bottom coming I'll sell my puts, use some of that cash to buy more inexpensive puts further down the chain (just in case) and maybe sell a few naked puts. We'll see. Gotta be very careful with those naked puts but the puts I buy should limit the downside. Such are the plans of mice and men. See ya...
Gurvir - nice to see you a part of the community - you get to see how your efforts help us all! Sounds like your dedicated server will certainly support a high load (so long as that one server doesn't have issues). Beauty of EC2 is it doesn't rely on a single piece of hardware. BTW, thanks for all your work; you do support a stable site. Just wanted to throw the EC2 idea out there. I used to support the 5th largest portal infrastructure for years, and EC2 is a god send for things like spiking sites :)
I mentioned on the premium site that I only had 5% in miners, the rest in cash. I was ready to pull the trigger at what appeared to be a breakout in GDX. I couldn't stand the pain anymore of watching the miners fly by me. You calmed me down and saved my butt. That 5% was dumb money because I didn't listen. I'm looking forward to buying at a bottom instead of a top.
SB, What's the point of riding a D-Wave all the way down? You're just going to give back all of your gains and then some.
The move is just starting in the stock market. It makes more sense to lock in whatever gains you still got left and then make some money in the stock market. And then put that money to work at the bottom of the D-Wave.
Broken parabolas never recover in my experience. This is only the second day and D-Wave's is usually last 5 to 8 weeks.
I think GLD Should Bounce from $169-170 But i ,sold all my Shorts ,Today(i was short Gold and Silver )and Now,in Cash .i dont wanna fool around and possibly get caught in a Bigger Fall.
Should the Metals retest the High (as in a Lower High ) of some kind ,i will than reload Short.
But for now, i wanna see what Happens in the next few Days,
Do the Markets retest to lows?(SPX ) ( maybe not ! )but if it does, i guess the metals will Get a Bid.
If we do retest the Lows,i will Buy inn Long the SPX/Dow/QQQ
Thanks to all for your kind words, it's been a heckuva run for over a year now. I've got a feeling my system will flip flop back and forth for a while so I will now be looking for Gary's low call where I will try my best to hold onto all positions acquired in my trading accounts.Hopefully an old turkey moment coming soon:)
So ironic that my friend IMs me just last night telling me he found a silver seller that will sell physical at below spot, and asks if I want to pitch in for a group buy.
I tell him they are selling because a collapse is coming and they want to take profits. He doesn't listen because he's in the perma-bull camp, stocking up on PMs, crash JPM, etc etc.
I just got back so will answer your question. To me, the S&P trade (or QQQ) is entirely different than my miners I'm working into over time. I might also play a bounce in the general market and don't need to do one or the other b/c I still have plenty of dry powder.
As far as the miners, I understand your observation about a potential D-wave in the midst. It does concern me, but keep in mind I'm in miners not the metal, and bought them AFTER a 45-50% pullback from the '08 lows, so they've already had their D-wave, or at least the majority of it.
I agree if metals get smashed that the miners aren't going up, and will drop further, but I don't fear that as I'm on with a plan. If the miner action if foretelling a D-wave, they could also bottom much sooner than the metals. We can't know for sure, but I have to buy them sometime.
I haven't bought the general market yet, but that is also a possibility. :)
I think it's presumptuous of us to think miners led metals into the D-wave, but that they will follow metals entirely lower.
The question is do they lead or do they follow, but it's most likely one or the other. In that case, some have already gone through a big chunk of the feared D-wave!
A D-wave that knocks gold down 30% would almost certainly knock silver down as well. 'Crash' is a loose term and I would define crash as a decline of >20% similar to what happened in May.
SB, what do you mean you bought them after a 45-50% pullback, from the '08 lows? GDX was below $16, SLW was nearly $2.5, AEM below $21, EXK was a penny stock, in '08.
I'm not sure why you mentioned 4 stocks I don't own except EXK, which happens to be my best so far and the only one that didn't pull back that much. I got that one after a 30+% pullback or so.
$12.50 to $8.50 on EXK is a 32% pullback, although I paid more than $8.50, it was the "recent" low. All the others I've listed here a hundred times have pulled back over 40% before I entered.
I don't keep track of your trades, SB. I've been trading the mining sector for years, and those were examples off the top of my head. You've answered my question, and made your point, thanks.
Looking at previous daily cycle declines... two day drop, bounce off the 20sma like today, then two days up backtest the 10sma before bottoming on the 40sma
Nervous Nelly here too. My puts are coming back as i bought them way to early..... Thinking about letting them go for a much smaller loss than i had last week? I will probably hold them though...
If you take a look at the 08 top in the market when we broke down from the head and shoulders the bear market rally did occur but with many down days also, not a straight shot up...possibility again
50% retraces of the general range is my point. UXG was 44% off the highs, which is my focus.
I didn't calculate the pennies, but will buy anything that is/was in a bull market when they pullback that much.
If anybody thinks we're in an '08 exact replay, they should stay away. I happen to believe miners will lead the next leg of the bull, so bought 'em when they pulled back so much. Not much more to it than that, and in fact, I don't even know the exact low on UXG in '08.
Even if it goes down to 2.50 a share which is highly unlikely it probably will not matter much in a few years when you sell it the desperate people for 20-30$
Not the best time to be on the beach with the family away from a PC. For me Weekly puts erased about 70% of the drop, closed all other positions and back to cash. Wishful thinking to stay long now or try to catch a low. Was a great run in the end, just not much clarity on where it ultimately goes from here in the short term.
Neither the oil bubble, the housing bubble, the silver bubble nor the internet bubble had central banks (!) stepping up as buyers of the asset - there are a dozen of these whales that have bought over the last year - Russia alone has $550 bn in reserves and has been buying heavily for years. Whether the details of these stories are truth or fiction, they make for great headlines and dip buying has still not caused people any pain! Comex expiration is coming up and often marks a turning point. I enjoyed Doc's comment that "when markets are disorderly, price runs can stretch far further than cycles or sentiment suggest" I would keep an open mind at the DCL for a move up to the test the highs - a $150 move is nothing to be sneezed at.
Michael, In my experience what is most important is the degree of stretch. All markets act on action and reaction.
Gold got extremely stretched above the 200 day moving average. I seriously doubt that the downside will end before at least moving back to the mean, and will probably overshoot the mean a little bit on the downside.
The only problem is that mentality will get one caught at the top of the bubble.
Granted we are nowhere near the bubble stage yet. But you can see how hard it was for people to exit during this parabola. Imagine how hard it's going to be when gold has rallied 200 or 300% in the year.
There will come a time when stocks are ridiculously cheap and gold is absurdly expensive. Our emotions are going to tell us to continue riding the gold bull, but I'm going to tell you the buy stocks. I will be early, like I always am. But I will be right.
The question is will you listen to me then, or ignore me again?
A possibility to consider partly because few are is that some excess has now been worked off and today's volumes show signs of puke (record 400K in the futures) and we have tentative support here at 20MA and 38.2 retracement while conventional topping or bottoming would be failure at around the old extreme levels rather than a one-jab knockout like today ...
Actually I think the time to sell gold is when Ben under so much pressure decides to join SMT. Of couse the inflated price of SMT at that point will be 1 million US pesos.
Seems like we are due for a nice long painful depression like recession again, before QE3 is announced....I fully expect the Vortex to take over at a certain point...
Stocks rally makes sense right now, but only so long before the Vortex takes that out too.
Only question, looking forward will be if Gold tanks even harder when the market turns...hmmm....very likely that gold can do its own thing...but with the disadvantage of people being burnt by gold, may force gold to respond in kind to a market decline.
Gary, I didn't ignore you ... I took enough pain in May and I didn't want to do that again ! I also bought QQQ this morning. I am confused about something though ... since you use the S&P as an indicator why do you buy QQQ?
One of the signs that the short side is completely in control and the long side is a no-go are those that presented themselves in, say, recent silver or cotton broken parabolas - inability to trade above prior day's highs or form a swing.
My suspicion is piqued because the bid-hitting was so extreme in futures that it was a panic that I often see toward the end of a move. In any case just considering a possibility out loud.
Too many people have been complaining about your analysis recently. Todays move is yet more proof, not that its needed, that your a really really good investor
There's one more recent gap on GLD that I would love to see filled; 164-165$. Gold also has a gap at that range. That would be sweet but I don't think it will get there.
What you need to figure out now is how to get us out a bit closer to tops...I noticed one thing at this gold top while I was trading futures, at the open in the futures market on the day we topped I had a 5 min chart open and seen a $17 dollar spike in the first 5 min, that was the first time I ever seen such a spike at the open. Seen big spikes during the night, but never this big right at the open. I thought to myself and also mentioned to someone on the blog that this probably signals the top.
Watch out on the tech trade. Seasonality is in October. S&P returned 1.31% today. Nazzy .88% The market is now overbought, time to close out some of my longs...
Gold back in the 1700's - unbelievable how fast things change...
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteDarn it,
ReplyDeletetraffic overload on SMTP? :-)
.
ReplyDeleteWill add short one more time if we see GLD 171.50 today.
ReplyDeleteThat will be my full position on this trade. I think...
Is the premium site down? I can't access it...
ReplyDeleteweekly fib pivot at 116.36 if anyone's looking for a good entry spot for SPY (also this level should probably hold if this is real)
ReplyDeleteGary premium down. You doing what you mentioned in newsletter las night?
ReplyDeleteGLD 60 MIN Chart:
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/11ToSWQEbaia
also last time i swear- but the rug has been pulled out so hard in /gc that the last time there was this amount of money in it it was trading at 1617. and dropping.
ReplyDeletenot that it's headed there in a straight line..
I also cant access the premium site.
ReplyDeleteI can not access premium site.
ReplyDeleteWebsite down. Find a new provider..
ReplyDeleteEammon, wish I could share more:( At this rate I may have to cover today:)GC Dec contract volume over 200K currently which is HUGE.
ReplyDeleteand excuse me earlier, i miswrote- SPY pivot at 116.85. getting long there (& kicking myself for selling yesterday afternoon but them's the breaks)
ReplyDeleteYes this is what I tried and tried to warn people could happen if they continued to try and catch every last penny of the gold parabola.
ReplyDeleteBut then again what do I know?
Well....looks like the Premium ste is donw...One more reason to exit the Gold buble early!! :)
ReplyDeleteI actually decide to go to 25%. Just so everyone knows what to do, since you all crashed the site by trying to all log in at the same time.
ReplyDeleteA few days ago someone posted a link to an interview on king world gold. I listened to it and then got sucked into a bunch more. Fascinating! I had no idea there was so much going on with gold and silver.
ReplyDeleteEmbarrassed to say I listened to maybe 10 of those things. Anyway, I won't ask all the questions I have here but I do have one.
There was a man on from Utah who was involved with passing a law to make gold legal tender in Utah. They made it sound like items purchased with gold are NOT subject to sales tax?
The lights dimmed at my house when Gary made a new post...
ReplyDeleteI can't access SMT either - listen - don't short gold. It's a very "bad odds" trade since the odds are unclear. The trends should be predictable to increase odds - right now it's like being a bug in a pool after a very large person just did a canon-ball...
ReplyDeleteG,
ReplyDeleteHope you din't mind me saying it's a bit early to claim victory on your gold call just because it's pulled back 2 days thus far.
Even my remaining 30% of PHYS is still up 12%.
For those interested, my overall P+L on total combined outstanding positions did just poke into negative territory (not including the PHYS trade that was already trimmed last week).
And I'd wager the action portends even lower prices in metals/miners the next few days, so not in there adding today. Might, but prob not.
GLD 10Min Channel:
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/kLjYrnBr2Qf
LOL @ Gary,
ReplyDeleteyou have created an army of blog readers who JUMP when you say so!
Or, in this case, tried to jump but landed flat on our posteriours since the trampoline were missing, so to speak.
Mr.T,
ReplyDeleteI have a low of 1813 on gold.....not at 1700s yet....although my gold shorts from yesterday doing quite well :-)
SB,
ReplyDeleteThe problem is 95% of all my subscribers are not like you. Despite my many warnings they take too large of position sizes and then they get knocked out at bottoms. So I don't have the luxury of ignoring intermediate degree declines or worse D-Wave declines. If I do a lot of people lose money and then get permanently knocked off the bull market.
And yes I know it's easy to say that it's their fault but that's still doesn't help me to keep people riding this bull market.
Dan,
ReplyDelete1769,5 as we speak...
Dan
ReplyDeletegold is at $1770. Youre probably watching kitco that is about 30 minutes behind
Gary,
ReplyDeleteYou're right on the money with that comment. I have always understood you are subjected to much more pressure by the fact you have subs.
Anyway, I hope don't take my comments the wrong way. It really does depend on where one buys, their outlook that is.
Perhaps I'm just talking myself through this trade to get to the other side, as it's also not easy seeing huge gains given back, even if for the bigger prize. :)
Gold swing high, 10 and 13 day MA's penetrated with the deferred 9 day coming up.
ReplyDeleteGary, can you mail me you portfolio update?
ReplyDeletefredrik.berglund@gmail.com
I'm a subscriber.
best regards,
Fredrik
CNBC just said
ReplyDelete"traders in gold caught off guard"
Oh please...
Only the ones that ignored my warning.
ReplyDeleteGLD dove below my 171.50 target WAY ahead of schedule.
ReplyDeleteWaiting on it one more time.
I know this is a gold bug blog and all, but while you are over analyzing gold, Sugar is the place to be as I let you know last week. SGG is making new highs today.
ReplyDeleteToday Gary finally gets to say "I told you" only a month or so late.
Gold volatility due mostly to Comex Opt. Ex. and perfect storm of run up. I'm sure you'll be late to catch up thinking you are in that much talked about D wave. - Whatever ~
Gary, Are you waiting for the close to buy???
ReplyDeleteVeronica, great call on your system. Congratulations!
ReplyDeleteDubbelito/razvan,
ReplyDeleteWhat site do you guys use for live prices?
Gold is falling like a blind roofer. Good Call Gary.
ReplyDeletehttp://goldprice.org/live-gold-price.html
ReplyDeletevistor,
ReplyDeleteIn case you haven't figured it out by now I am almost always early. It's better to be early than late as we were so painfully shown in May.
And we have a very clear signal that will tell us if this is just a daily cycle decline or the beginning of a D-Wave which you would know if you had read last night's report.
traderlady,
ReplyDeletenow seems like a pretty good time since we just got a small pullback.
Gold video from Financial times.
ReplyDeletehttp://xsltm10.finance.sp2.yahoo.com/video/companynews-18928726/me-want-shiny-stuff-26390440
Daily SLV Tagged the 20sma
ReplyDeleteWhich explains morning support,but the GLD Has more down side in order to Tag 20sma
http://screencast.com/t/ONnBnDAE
3 cheers for Mr Gann !
ReplyDeletehttp://chartramblings.blogspot.com/2011/08/gold_24.html
Whats up with the USD? Catching the puke bucket from gold or something more? Hopefully this money will start finding it's way into the QQQ's.
ReplyDeleteGann, thanks for the updates on the 20 sma tags on the 10-minute CHARTS. I still have not figured out how to get a 20 sma. Forex pros give the 10 sma.
ReplyDeleteI can't load premium site.
ReplyDeleteAnyone have the same problem?
Zerohedge explanation for this gold drop is humorous. It has nothing to do with gold ring stretched relative to the 200dmva and extreme sentiment all based on markets digesting "news from 2 days ago."
ReplyDeleteGurvir is moving the premium site to a dedicated server to cure the problem.
ReplyDeleteIt should be up and running in the next 15 or 20 min. and we shouldn't have this problem ever again
Quick update on SLV 10MIN:
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/KAAp0WEdOY21
Gary,
ReplyDeleteDoes this decline have a D-Wave characteristic to it?
that SPY retest of yesterday's high was bought into very heavily. it's now or never..
ReplyDeleteI pity the people that are feeling like this.
ReplyDeletei have a question though- is the preference for QQQ based solely on the intrinsic mania behind aapl/nflx/amzn? i tend to stick with SPY just because it's easier to track what the funds are doing.
ReplyDeleteMrM.,
ReplyDeleteI went over what we need to see to determine whether a D-Wave has begun in last night's report. Did you read the report?
MrM, very funny. Yip, plenty of retailers holding $1900 gold
ReplyDeleteROFLOL @ MrMyagi!!!
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteThe trendline, ok, got it.
Gary - should your dedicated server run out of juice as well, next time ask Gurvir to consider that cost to convert and monthly running cost to hot the site on the Amazon EC2 environment. It may end up being comparable in cost to a dedicated server and can handle huge spikes.
ReplyDeletehttp://aws.amazon.com/web-hosting/
hot=host
ReplyDeleteGOLD
ReplyDeleteDaily GLD $169-170 Level Lookslike good Support (short Term )
http://screencast.com/t/sQugsnnqaXE
Thanks Gann.
ReplyDeleteI think Gary can claim victory on his gold call. I think it's great that he was right cause my hedge is exploding in value!! I am cheering for gold and silver to tank here (even though I am very long). This is EXACTLY why people hedge. Of course, Gary could have been off by $200 and that's why I wanted to stay long. Gold could have rocketed past $2,000 no problem. You never know. It's all a guessing game. At least Gary makes educated guesses and his charts are cool. Good work!
ReplyDeleteVisitor,
ReplyDeleteI show SGG at 103.07 - Could you please share why you think it'll make new highs today (over 107, right?), and how long of a term you would hold it? Any stops?
Thanks for our info, SP
Gold will either bounce off its Bollinger Band mid line around $1733 or it won't. If it does not then we go lower to the 50 SMA at $1623. Course it may take a few days of bobbing around the BB mid line before we'll know. IMHO.
ReplyDeleteDanno,
ReplyDeleteSo gold goes up, you make money. Gold goes down, you make money? Doubt it.....why not just invest the difference of your long position less your short and you'd be in the same boat less those brokerage fees and margin for error/headache of managing umcessary positions.
Hedging is for the big boys that move markets with their trades.
Dan,
ReplyDeleteI bought shares (long).
I hedged with put options.
The put options in increase in value faster than the long shares lose value. Not on a mild pull back, but on a sharp pull back they will and this appears to be the case. I'm not yet a break even but if this keeps up I will actually make money, plus I will still have all those long shares on the way back up.
You need to buy a few books. Maybe I shouldn't talk about this stuff here. Options are dangerous if used improperly. Wickedly dangerous.
If gold continued to go up then you threw money away on your hedges. If you miss time the bottom and gold goes back up, then you threw money away on your hedges again.
ReplyDeleteNow you have to time the bottom of the correction correctly in order to make money on your hedges.
Like I said if you wanted to stay market neutral all you had to do was sell. Now you have to manage two positions instead of one.
Still short 1000 GLD avg. 178.58. Moved stop to cover to 176.53
ReplyDeleteHuge volume came in at my 171.50 level.
Wanna add the last 500 on weakness at that level. Question is what happens between now and it being revisited, if at all.
Several gaps got filled.
This is my plan:
If I get filled on a move below 171.50 I will watch to exit between 169 (at worst) and 162 (at best).
I think we are going the wrong way here...
ReplyDelete"Euro/US Dollar options sentiment continues to recover from bearish extremes, suggesting the EURUSD has further room to run to the topside amidst broader US Dollar losses. CFTC Commitment of Traders data likewise shows that Non-Commercial traders have once again turned net-long after falling net-short *for the first time since January.*
ReplyDeleteAnd though one week hardly makes a trend, we see risks that a continued correction could force a noteworthy EUR break to the topside."
http://www.dailyfx.com/
second strings, bench warmers and retailers are all in a tizzy and confused as to what to do... up and down up and down...
ReplyDeleteI wish my plays could pay off the mortgage but until that day I gotta go to work.
good fortune tuh y'all.
MS out!!!
Still in wait-and-see before I add any equities position here. Current weakness/failure to hold 10 DMA is keeping me cautious.
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteI hear what you're saying man. The only thing that matters is that I make money in the end. With my method I can be very wrong and still win. That is what options are for. I am not against EVER selling shares. I just felt there was a chance that gold (but especially silver) could vault significantly higher.
Anyway, good call on the pivot.
yeah weakness in SPY here getting suspicious. yesterday's VWAP is 114.83. probably shouldn't get much lower than that if this is the real mccoy.
ReplyDeleteDANNO,
ReplyDeleteI had the same strategy, very small of course. Sold my GLD puts this morning and made money. now have a stop in place on GLD shares. Even if the stop gets hit, I've made money on the trade. If it doesn't get hit, I'll buy enough puts at the end of the day to cover any downside overnight. I'll keep doing this until Gary calls the bottom in Gold.
Banks are still green even with a strong dollar. If AAPL can recover the market should end up in the green.
ReplyDeleteWild wild swings on gold price, went from 1790 to 1781 in a few seconds.
ReplyDeleteAll right, this old man needs to get a crown. Off to the dentist.
now's a great time to get a gold crown at these bargains!!
ReplyDeleteI was trying to catch a cycle!
ReplyDeleteMr.T
ReplyDeleteGary was on a virtual server. Just dual core with 4gb ram. Moving over to a dedicated dual xenon with 8 cores, 8gb ram and raid 10 config. This should handle the load at least until the next C wave when people going to be causing huge spikes again! The user base on the premium site could possibly triple in size in which case we might need to beef up a bit more.
Server upgrade is about 60% done!
ReplyDeletegurvir gurvir gurvir!
ReplyDeleteLooks like I'm on the pain train with a one-way ticket!
ReplyDeleteI haven't been adding today, and believe more downside is likely short term.
Gonna take nap. :)
Move below earlier low will be decisive. Needs to happen now if 169-162 window is to open today.
ReplyDeleteIf it goes it will get "swooshy"
buckling up...
bamster,
ReplyDeleteGlad to hear it. Now I don't feel so lonely around here. lol. I'm going to the movies. Silver is wounded here. Will take a few weeks to recover. I sold more covered calls (way out of the money). When we feel a bottom coming I'll sell my puts, use some of that cash to buy more inexpensive puts further down the chain (just in case) and maybe sell a few naked puts. We'll see. Gotta be very careful with those naked puts but the puts I buy should limit the downside. Such are the plans of mice and men. See ya...
330K GC DEC contract volume.Absolutely huge.
ReplyDeleteShort another 500 GLD @ 171.59
ReplyDeletetotal 1,500
moving up stop on all to 174.50
boat fully loaded on the position.
Nine days of gains evaporated in a little over 24 hours. Now you see why you don't play chicken with a parabola.
ReplyDeleteWow .It's safe to say .My Confluence of Fib Cycles Hit the Metals.as they are Reacting to Them !!!
ReplyDeleteGLD Close to Tagging $169-170 Support
Gurvir - nice to see you a part of the community - you get to see how your efforts help us all! Sounds like your dedicated server will certainly support a high load (so long as that one server doesn't have issues). Beauty of EC2 is it doesn't rely on a single piece of hardware. BTW, thanks for all your work; you do support a stable site. Just wanted to throw the EC2 idea out there. I used to support the 5th largest portal infrastructure for years, and EC2 is a god send for things like spiking sites :)
ReplyDeleteIf it's gonna get swooshy it's gonna do it on this 30 min. candle
ReplyDeleteVeronica: What does the huge Dec contract mean? Long or short Gold? How are you interpreting it? and where are you getting the data from?
ReplyDeleteThanks!
Mr M
ReplyDeleteThat picture was classic.
Unfortunately there some that are saying " I thought everybody said it was going to 2k?"
Maybe it's got one more thrust up, but its got to be hell to hold thru a decline like this.
Update
Gold -102.90
Server upgrade is complete!
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteI mentioned on the premium site that I only had 5% in miners, the rest in cash. I was ready to pull the trigger at what appeared to be a breakout in GDX. I couldn't stand the pain anymore of watching the miners fly by me. You calmed me down and saved my butt. That 5% was dumb money because I didn't listen. I'm looking forward to buying at a bottom instead of a top.
Thanks
SB,
ReplyDeleteWhat's the point of riding a D-Wave all the way down? You're just going to give back all of your gains and then some.
The move is just starting in the stock market. It makes more sense to lock in whatever gains you still got left and then make some money in the stock market. And then put that money to work at the bottom of the D-Wave.
Broken parabolas never recover in my experience. This is only the second day and D-Wave's is usually last 5 to 8 weeks.
Thanks Gurvir - seamless!
ReplyDeleteFeel,
ReplyDeleteC'mon push it down
Wow
ReplyDeleteGold Hasn't broken the 200ma for a THOUSAND DAYS.
maybe get another swoosh down at 2:30 margin settlement.
ReplyDeleteGann,
ReplyDeleteIf we find some support at 169-170 that'll create a nice H&S pattern on the charts.
Not to much to say!
ReplyDeleteBravo Coach! Keep at it!
Gary,
ReplyDeleteAny chance we make it back to 55 on QQQ?
I think the S&P will at a very minimum tag the 200 day moving average and probably manage to poke above there a bit.
ReplyDeleteThanks Gurvir!
ReplyDeleteHey Dan...
ReplyDeleteI think GLD Should Bounce from $169-170 But i ,sold all my Shorts ,Today(i was short Gold and Silver )and Now,in Cash .i dont wanna fool around and possibly get caught
in a Bigger Fall.
Should the Metals retest the High (as in a Lower High ) of some kind ,i will than reload Short.
But for now, i wanna see what Happens in the next few Days,
Do the Markets retest to lows?(SPX ) ( maybe not ! )but if it does, i guess the metals will Get a Bid.
If we do retest the Lows,i will Buy inn Long the SPX/Dow/QQQ
Lots of talk about a D-wave or touching the 200 dma today.
ReplyDeleteAs near as I can tell we haven't yet broken the trend line to indicate a DCL on the way. Am I missing something?
Le Fou
bamster,
ReplyDeletelol, I'm giving it everything I've got! Gary's voice is in my head though reminding me about the bull...
This 170 zone is tedious. I think it's b/c of the gap from the 11th that opens up the one on the 8th.
edit:
ReplyDeleteI meant the gap on the 10th, not the 11th.
Anyway, if 169 opens up I will be eyeing an exit. That's the upper range of my target zone for this leg down.
Thanks to all for your kind words, it's been a heckuva run for over a year now. I've got a feeling my system will flip flop back and forth for a while so I will now be looking for Gary's low call where I will try my best to hold onto all positions acquired in my trading accounts.Hopefully an old turkey moment coming soon:)
ReplyDeleteSo ironic that my friend IMs me just last night telling me he found a silver seller that will sell physical at below spot, and asks if I want to pitch in for a group buy.
ReplyDeleteI tell him they are selling because a collapse is coming and they want to take profits. He doesn't listen because he's in the perma-bull camp, stocking up on PMs, crash JPM, etc etc.
Jason,
ReplyDeleteDefine 'crash'.
Gary,
ReplyDeleteI just got back so will answer your question. To me, the S&P trade (or QQQ) is entirely different than my miners I'm working into over time. I might also play a bounce in the general market and don't need to do one or the other b/c I still have plenty of dry powder.
As far as the miners, I understand your observation about a potential D-wave in the midst. It does concern me, but keep in mind I'm in miners not the metal, and bought them AFTER a 45-50% pullback from the '08 lows, so they've already had their D-wave, or at least the majority of it.
I agree if metals get smashed that the miners aren't going up, and will drop further, but I don't fear that as I'm on with a plan. If the miner action if foretelling a D-wave, they could also bottom much sooner than the metals. We can't know for sure, but I have to buy them sometime.
I haven't bought the general market yet, but that is also a possibility. :)
It's not uncommon to see dealers offering some silver products below spot. Usually, junk silver (40%-90%) or Comex bars are available, at a discount.
ReplyDeleteWhat bothers me the major indexes accomplished "death crosses" at the moment.
ReplyDeleteAny statistical significance?
I think it's presumptuous of us to think miners led metals into the D-wave, but that they will follow metals entirely lower.
ReplyDeleteThe question is do they lead or do they follow, but it's most likely one or the other. In that case, some have already gone through a big chunk of the feared D-wave!
Danno,
ReplyDeleteA D-wave that knocks gold down 30% would almost certainly knock silver down as well. 'Crash' is a loose term and I would define crash as a decline of >20% similar to what happened in May.
SB, what do you mean you bought them after a 45-50% pullback, from the '08 lows? GDX was below $16, SLW was nearly $2.5, AEM below $21, EXK was a penny stock, in '08.
ReplyDeleteauger,
ReplyDeleteI mean the lows in 08, to the recent highs in May. They've pulled back 45-50% of the entire rally made after the collapse.
Just waking up after a nap, sorry if I wasn't more clear as I'm foggy. :)
auger,
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure why you mentioned 4 stocks I don't own except EXK, which happens to be my best so far and the only one that didn't pull back that much. I got that one after a 30+% pullback or so.
$12.50 to $8.50 on EXK is a 32% pullback, although I paid more than $8.50, it was the "recent" low. All the others I've listed here a hundred times have pulled back over 40% before I entered.
SVM was $16+, now $8.
ReplyDeleteGPL was over $5, recent low $2.50 or so.
UXG 44% off the highs
I don't keep track of your trades, SB. I've been trading the mining sector for years, and those were examples off the top of my head. You've answered my question, and made your point, thanks.
ReplyDeleteDP, we got a death cross last summer too. The statistics aren't consistent with that indicator.
ReplyDeleteShort gold futures from 1900...losing sleep :)
ReplyDeleteLooking at previous daily cycle declines... two day drop, bounce off the 20sma like today, then two days up backtest the 10sma before bottoming on the 40sma
ReplyDeleteLong time no see WW!
ReplyDeleteStill long TQQQ, held through draw down...Thank Gary.
ReplyDeleteAk,
ReplyDeleteYeah I Miss you guys...lol
Nervous Nelly here too. My puts are coming back as i bought them way to early..... Thinking about letting them go for a much smaller loss than i had last week? I will probably hold them though...
ReplyDeleteNever going to short a bull again.
ReplyDeletevery nice day. thanks gary.
ReplyDeletefor you wavers out there, assuming this is an ABC correction that points to SPY 123.40.
for you regular folk the 1597 day simple MA is 122.80.
friday should be interesting..
If you bought UXG 44% off the highs, then that's around 1450% above the '08 lows.
ReplyDeleteshort 1,500 GLD avg. $176.25
ReplyDeletewill exit into weakness EOD or AH near 169.
see you after the close.
Ak,
ReplyDeleteIf you take a look at the 08 top in the market when we broke down from the head and shoulders the bear market rally did occur but with many down days also, not a straight shot up...possibility again
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteauger,
ReplyDelete50% retraces of the general range is my point. UXG was 44% off the highs, which is my focus.
I didn't calculate the pennies, but will buy anything that is/was in a bull market when they pullback that much.
If anybody thinks we're in an '08 exact replay, they should stay away. I happen to believe miners will lead the next leg of the bull, so bought 'em when they pulled back so much. Not much more to it than that, and in fact, I don't even know the exact low on UXG in '08.
Just looked, and it was roughly .50/share, ran to about $9.50, so $5/share would be a 50% pullback.
ReplyDeleteCorrect me if I'm wrong.
SB,
ReplyDeleteEven if it goes down to 2.50 a share which is highly unlikely it probably will not matter much in a few years when you sell it the desperate people for 20-30$
Gary says a typical D-wave retraces 50% of the prior C-wave gains, so these would qualify, IMO.
ReplyDeleteThe way you're figuring the numbers, UXG would have to pullback half of 1400%, or 700%. How can something pull back 700%?
aklaunch,
ReplyDeleteI'm hoping you're right!
SB,
ReplyDeleteI'm sure you know how to do math better than that.
If something goes up 1400% from $1-$14, a 50% correction would be back to seven dollars.
Good call Gary.
ReplyDeleteNot the best time to be on the beach with the family away from a PC.
For me Weekly puts erased about 70% of the drop, closed all other positions and back to cash. Wishful thinking to stay long now or try to catch a low. Was a great run in the end, just not much clarity on where it ultimately goes from here in the short term.
Gary,
ReplyDeleteThat is what I was saying. Auger is confused, not me.
It's the 1400% that is irrelevant, pullbacks are calculated from the top.
ReplyDeleteSB, read my post again. I said you purchased UXG roughly 1450% ABOVE the '08 highs. Please don't tell me that I'm confused.
ReplyDeleteOk, and I also bought it after a 44% pullback, which is all I'm concerned about. :)
ReplyDelete'08 lows, rather
ReplyDeleteNeither the oil bubble, the housing bubble, the silver bubble nor the internet bubble had central banks (!) stepping up as buyers of the asset - there are a dozen of these whales that have bought over the last year - Russia alone has $550 bn in reserves and has been buying heavily for years. Whether the details of these stories are truth or fiction, they make for great headlines and dip buying has still not caused people any pain! Comex expiration is coming up and often marks a turning point. I enjoyed Doc's comment that "when markets are disorderly, price runs can stretch far further than cycles or sentiment suggest" I would keep an open mind at the DCL for a move up to the test the highs - a $150 move is nothing to be sneezed at.
ReplyDeleteMichael,
ReplyDeleteIn my experience what is most important is the degree of stretch. All markets act on action and reaction.
Gold got extremely stretched above the 200 day moving average. I seriously doubt that the downside will end before at least moving back to the mean, and will probably overshoot the mean a little bit on the downside.
Shalom has the discipline of a bodybuilder training for a show and the patience of a Zen master.
ReplyDeleteBasically, as Gary has oft pointed out, he is different than 99% of Gary's readers.
The only problem is that mentality will get one caught at the top of the bubble.
ReplyDeleteGranted we are nowhere near the bubble stage yet. But you can see how hard it was for people to exit during this parabola. Imagine how hard it's going to be when gold has rallied 200 or 300% in the year.
There will come a time when stocks are ridiculously cheap and gold is absurdly expensive. Our emotions are going to tell us to continue riding the gold bull, but I'm going to tell you the buy stocks. I will be early, like I always am. But I will be right.
ReplyDeleteThe question is will you listen to me then, or ignore me again?
Especially when coinciding with the collapse of the worlds reserve curency.
ReplyDeleteA possibility to consider partly because few are is that some excess has now been worked off and today's volumes show signs of puke (record 400K in the futures) and we have tentative support here at 20MA and 38.2 retracement while conventional topping or bottoming would be failure at around the old extreme levels rather than a one-jab knockout like today ...
ReplyDeleteActually I think the time to sell gold is when Ben under so much pressure decides to join SMT. Of couse the inflated price of SMT at that point will be 1 million US pesos.
ReplyDeleteSeems like we are due for a nice long painful depression like recession again, before QE3 is announced....I fully expect the Vortex to take over at a certain point...
Stocks rally makes sense right now, but only so long before the Vortex takes that out too.
Only question, looking forward will be if Gold tanks even harder when the market turns...hmmm....very likely that gold can do its own thing...but with the disadvantage of people being burnt by gold, may force gold to respond in kind to a market decline.
For another day....
Gary,
ReplyDeleteI didn't ignore you ... I took enough pain in May and I didn't want to do that again ! I also bought QQQ this morning.
I am confused about something though ... since you use the S&P as an indicator why do you buy QQQ?
I really doubt this stops until gold at least tags the 50 day moving average.
ReplyDeleteWe will listen - as long as we still have power to run the internet and the rioters aren't busting in for food
ReplyDeleteBecause I expect tech to outperform a little bit. But one could buy the SPYDER's and accomplish the same thing.
ReplyDeleteOne of the signs that the short side is completely in control and the long side is a no-go are those that presented themselves in, say, recent silver or cotton broken parabolas - inability to trade above prior day's highs or form a swing.
ReplyDeleteMy suspicion is piqued because the bid-hitting was so extreme in futures that it was a panic that I often see toward the end of a move. In any case just considering a possibility out loud.
i feel quite euphoric for you today gary
ReplyDeleteToo many people have been complaining about your analysis recently. Todays move is yet more proof, not that its needed, that your a really really good investor
There's one more recent gap on GLD that I would love to see filled; 164-165$. Gold also has a gap at that range.
ReplyDeleteThat would be sweet but I don't think it will get there.
Gary,
ReplyDeleteWhat you need to figure out now is how to get us out a bit closer to tops...I noticed one thing at this gold top while I was trading futures, at the open in the futures market on the day we topped I had a 5 min chart open and seen a $17 dollar spike in the first 5 min, that was the first time I ever seen such a spike at the open. Seen big spikes during the night, but never this big right at the open. I thought to myself and also mentioned to someone on the blog that this probably signals the top.
WW,
ReplyDeleteYou've been quiet past little while...
WW
ReplyDeletePlease...
Now u r asking Gary for Perfection. Hell if I catch 75% of a move I happy.
SF,
ReplyDeleteI'm just kidding, do really think I expect that from Gary!
Miyagi,
ReplyDeleteBeen trading alot, especially late night.
Neo
ReplyDeleteBig money knew about the margin news and wanted out.
WW,
ReplyDeleteI tried that in May and look what it got us :~)
Fortunately I learned my lesson. Apparently many people didn't.
WW
ReplyDeleteNext time a :-) would help.
:-)
My point was... Can you imagine if Gary could spot tops how amazing of an investor he would be then
ReplyDeleteWW,
ReplyDeleteDid you really just post that?
SF,
ReplyDeleteSorry I was actually smiling when writing it, your right though sounded different without actually putting the :)
Gary,
I know you tried, and I see how much you regret it, I understand completely
All the nonsense about 65 day cycles in gold didn't work out quite as planned did it?
ReplyDeleteSpotting tops in real time is tough. Markets go up differently then they go down.
ReplyDeleteGold had no less than four potential tops during this final run. All of them occurring within the timing band for a move down into a daily cycle low.
It will always be much easier to spot a bottom than a top.
AK,
ReplyDeleteDid I say something wrong? Or did youisunderstand me too because I forgot the :)?
Gary,
ReplyDeleteYup, definitely impossible, like I said there was only that one thing I noticed in the futures open different than the other potential tops.
Neo
ReplyDeleteBut the news didn't come out till the close right?
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteHow does this margin increase affect us?
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteAt Ease are you referring to Sept. 17th put expirations?
ReplyDeleteWatch out on the tech trade. Seasonality is in October. S&P returned 1.31% today. Nazzy .88% The market is now overbought, time to close out some of my longs...
ReplyDeleteHack,
ReplyDeleteBear market rallies usually last 4-8 weeks unless you are just day trading.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteFatboy where are you?
ReplyDeleteNotice how GLD was down -3.39% while SLV was only down -4.49%. Most would have expected the bloodletting in silver to be worse.
ReplyDeleteSilver was down over 7% intraday. Give it time, before this D-wave is done silver will be somewhere back in the 20's just like I said it would.
ReplyDeleteUsually broken parabola's return to their origin. That would be $21 for silver.
I would love to buy $21 silver :~)
Steve Jobs has resigned from Apple.
ReplyDeleteHis health outlook must not be too good
this is going to hit the qqqq overnight.
ReplyDeleteQqq will get roughed up tomorrow. Might be an opportunity to add.
ReplyDeleteAny guesses on aapl. Down 10% down 20%
ReplyDeleteSteve Jobs just resigned as CEO of Apple. QQQ will take a hit.
ReplyDeleteBut now he is chairman.
ReplyDelete29 is really not that far away. I hope it hits 29 tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteJobs resigned. Ouch...
ReplyDeleteaapl getting mildly active in after hours trading. Down 6% currently.
ReplyDelete