I'm not really worried about AGQ so much as trying to figure out why ZSL hasn't performed better yet. It's taking some work but I'm gaining a better understanding. 7am London Fix, NAV, etc. 1x ETFs are not this flipp'n complicated and I can see why some would quickly become frustrated.
Sorry, the double was an iPhone accident. The goal is to subscribe to the post so all entries get emailed to us. We have to put some text there so a dot is used. It's not like the premium site where you can subscribe without posting.
What's your take on hold here? I think you mentioned you have been following closely since 2004 and called correctly that gold was getting tired.
I think Gary was right to say the PM bottom could be in around November.
The only question is exactly how low will PM's go between now and then. That depends on so many factors it's very difficult to guess. I think we'll know the bottom by the way the trading feels, prices that have been hit and the time frame.
Hold or sell just depends on your time frame. I'm not trading here. Just keeping my AGQ and waiting for the bottom, when I will dump my ZSL position and (if I have the balls) buy more AGQ or SLV.
The way I figure, metals are the bull market and we should be long. The only question is when, but if a trader can take some pain, now is as good a time as any. I agree with all the '08 comparisons we see lately, but highly doubt it will play out the same as then. Fear of another '08 is exactly what the bull needs to make sure most are on the sidelines scratching their heads, unable to participate when the bull resumes. Too many know exactly what to do if deflation brings metals to their knees, so we'll not have that opportunity to load up. Gonna have to get in front of it.
It will not surprise me if metals test the recent lows again this week or next, even make slight new lows, but that is a dip to buy and not confirmation of a deflationary collapse.
To me, the correct answer is to be long some, not pick a spot and be all in or out. Have position sizes that allow one to ride out what could be several tests before resuming the upside, keeping some powder dry if wrong. Either way, the bull will correct timing mistakes, as Gary often says.
I am confused ...If Dollar goes down, does it mean that we should buy stocks with both hands? Aren't we in the middle of the window dressing of quarter end? That would mean that everything reverses next week...
With all due respect Gary, seems like you might be allowing the Technical indicators to trump your cycle work? IMO they should be secondary and complimentary, not primary.
SB, your point on always holding a core in a major bull market is spot on.
NJ, my stats come from a proprietary system being developed. It has a database of every daily cycle for this bull market. It shows that 3 back to back daily cycles of just 20 days would be a first.
Poly, The COT and sentiment aren't technicals. One of them by itself doesn't trump cycles. Two of them together potentially does trump the cycle, especially when we consider that gold is in the timing band for a daily cycle low.
Those two signs suggest that this may be a greater degree bottom.
Does a straight beat a flush? A full house beats two pair? I am starting to think There is heavy-handed market manipulation associated with the FED twist. The markets are just too weird asof late. These are the times in the past, 2008, where I've lost a lot being on the wrong side of the track.
Thursdays are usually down days in the markets....if I were trading (especially equities) I'd be selling today. Those with big kahunas and are long could wait to see if we take out yesterdays highs within the first two hours. Call me Maverick after Gooses death but to me "it doesn't look good."
Everyone, I was thinking of going 25% in gdxj for an old turkey type of approach. This way I have skin in the game if it goes up. As far as I see it It's on sale today. Tomorrow might be a cheaper price and I can pick up more. Is there really that much more downside?
assuming nothing fundamental has changed with the gold/dollar relationship, this *could* be the bottom of the entire D-wave.
but if the dollar can keep going then of course this should correct quite a bit further.
pure speculation now but i think europe will elect to default/tell greece to sit and spin which should drive eur/usd upwards, and so am leaning on the gold correction being more or less done with give or take $100.
still holding 1/4 position in QQQ longs until some fog clears.
The EuroZone will not allow Greece to crash. It's easier to kick the can down the road with hopes that the economy will grow. In other words when the private sector generates enough jobs which in turn increases the tax base required to keep governments afloat. That has been the plan all along here and abroad. Remember, if Greece goes the EuroZone will go with it.
Thanks, and I was thinking of you and Natanarchist this morning at breakfast as the two fellas here that rode the bull better than the rest out of '08 (maybe sooner). I have to say it feels kinda lonely on the bull by myself. Not sure what that means. :)
I did put some more digital fiat confetti to work into this decline. Turned up my total risk .5% of portfolio, not much but keeps me focused on what I should be doing (buying).
And I'm still expecting some more weakness or sideways chop in the near future. In fact, I prefer the metals/miners sell off a bit into the weekend to shape the charts to my liking.
Shalom, you're not entirely alone. I have a core of physical that is about 15% of my NW that I bought between Jan 09 and August 10. I don't even consider selling that.
By the way, that conviction has lost me the miner profits I made since June when I first bought. Only thing I sold at profit was 70% of my PHYS awhile back.
The first half of the year was great, but I've been getting tested since then.
I'm done for the day unless things turn sharply lower, in which case I'll likely nibble some more. Good luck.
I'm with you there. I don't even count my physical, and have been very comfortable adding to that recently. I really never have a thought to sell any of that.
Oh,and I did actually sell some physical. It was the one coin I talked about the other day that Joesph Lemma said was a fake. Since it's not silver, but numismatic which I'm not really interested in, I decided to sell it on Ebay. Paid $16, sold for $242.
Sorry for your lost returns...The gold bull is a hard one...never know what is up or down...I am sure though, despite your short-term set-backs that your investment into non-confetti will produce results. Still think you should do the scrooge mcduck thing, guarantee you will feel even better about the non-confetti position. :)
Alright I am out too...best of luck to those braving anything!
SB, been following your posts all along.. holding and adding to NEM, AUY, MDW, AAG, CFM, IPT and REN when you add.... you are not alone...and thanks for your great work...
Germany remembers 1923 like the US remembers 1932. The US will do everything it can to avoid another depression and Germany will do everything it can to avoid hyperinflation again.
Here is a chart showing the value of one german gold mark in paper marks from 1909 to 1923
Google weimar hyperinflation and you'll find plenty of images of people burning paper money and sweeping it off the streets. Germany would rather see the PIGS default and will have to be drug, kicking and screaming, down the money printing path.
DeMark musings from Kevin Depew on 9/28/11: Dow Industrials recorded a TD Sequential 13 DAILY BUY and confirmed it yesterday with a bullish price flip. A high today above yesterday's bolsters confidence in the BUY signal. Signal good for 12 days He didn't say anything about this, but I believe the Russell recorded one on Thursday and had a bullish price flip yesterday as well. SP still through bar 12 of 13 of BUY, but may be difficult to record with so many individual stocks recording 13 BUY signals already. Nikkei - recorded both DAILY Sequential 13 and Combo 13 BUY signals. Bullish price flip as early as tomorrow's session. TLT - Confirmed a DAILY TD Sequential 13 on Friday with a bearish price flip yesterday. WEEKLY recorded a 9 SELL setup last week, so 1-4 WEEK reaction implying October may not be a good month for bonds!
I did jump in very close to the bottom in '08 Isold everything when gold hit 1652 (1650 was my target ) so I have been on the sidelines for the last few months in Gold. Never sold Amy physical. Also have not bought any physical gold or silver for quite a while, at least 1 year or more. Hopefully we won,t have to stay up all Sunday night to wait for the best prices. Maybe we I wil give WW my account info and he can buy for me. He seems to around for these spike lows and calls them quite accurately.
Lots of cash in my trading account now. Still have all our CEF , and some gdxj in the kids account. That account is 60% cash.
Gary, any thoughts about a confirmation, up or down happening next Friday on jobs report? You have mentioned in the past that those reports can turn the tide.
Nat, I think it's what happens between now and the employment report that is probably going to be important. If the dollar continues to selloff then the employment report would most likely signal a cycle bottom, not a top.
If a cycle bottom happens to come below the previous pivot, then the dollar has problems.
Gold loses the 120sma today the next support is the 150sma around previous IC high 1577-80, a break of the 150sma and I dont think the 200 will hold this time around, look for support at the C-wave lower trendline around 1490
WW, I like your numbers. I say that Asian market trading tail from the other night will need to be validated during market hours, in the least. This is not positive action and the SOS number yesterday was very indicative. Only problem is, where is the bounce!
Just want to post some virgin observations here for potential discussion. Disclaimer I'm in cash. Poly and WW thanks for the contributions (among others, too).
1. The COT report last week showed the small specs piling on the longs, in gold. Despite the OI level, this is bearish to me, hence the Sunday raid.
2. The chart Gary puts up in sentiment....notice the bollinger bands. Narrow for a ling time (like a coil) and this move down they are starting to widen. To me this looks like sentiment can continue down and keep pushing the BB down..
Gary is still the best out there and this blog is top notch. I am finding that I really only should keep up with things here and ignore all else. It mostly bogus and I get diminishing returns on time spent...
I will do my best to point out the next bottom (if we make new lows), as I did in Asian trade at 1535, if im awake this time like I was then. I will also confirm it as a short term bottom, which at this point will most likely turn out to be a long term bottom.
Your right it didnt actually tag the 200sma, everyone was expecting that and poured in at 1535, basically right there. We may get a bounce off the 200, but if falling rapidly, panic will drop right through it.
WW, Any expectations on how long you'll be holding onto the dollar trade? I'm still in as well along with EUO. Please post if you sell or see something.
Congrats. Seems you've really been playing these markets really well the past few months. Unfortunately I sold my large UUP position this morning with everyone else and am left with a small short position on the markets. Let's see how we close today.
WW, I'm waiting for John Paulson to unload all of his gold before buying GLD. Still long dollar as well. I thought that the US$ bounce out of 3 year cycle low was a time to buy and hold.
WW, Your insights are such an enormous help....you have no idea! You are right there with play by play, in the moment information. We couldn't do without you. Many, many thanks!
I am also still long UUP, and also have puts on USO as per Doc's recommendation, and Harry's. All in all, not a bad day for my account.
I sold half my UUP. Out of my shorts here; I've got no visibility for what tomorrow's Greece/Germany duet might mean for the market. Stepping aside except for small short positions in SKF and my long UUP, 1/2 position.
The dollar is all about what the market decides to do. I have been expecting the market to put in a new low and then spawn a bear market rally, but at this point the market has already retraced to the 50% fib level within weeks off its low, I wasn't expecting to see that until after a new low was in within 40 days of the prior low and a bear market rally topping around the 50% level. So at this point I expect the market will simply break down and continue lower without any significant bear market rally, or the market will break out of this consolidation and make new all time highs....but its hard to fathom that happening being the world is in the toilet right now. Who knows, anything can happen, everyone is nuts right now.
Looking like silver might have another margin hike waiting in the wings. I'm gonna have to ride this out, but not adding more today. Will sit with what I have and be patient.
W2, maybe I missed it earlier, but can you explain your falling fruit pattern? If it`s your own thing and you don`t want to give it up, that`s cool too. Long gold &dollar, short spx, let`s embrace the disaster :)
1. Forex: very high odds we have a 3yr cycle low 2. Bonds: the 10yr is just under heavy resistance at 2.0%. Not likely we break above given... 3. The Fed's Twist pulling money from other assets in an attempt to make coin by front-running the Fed 4. The Fed said: no more.
The result: The LITTLE fish (stock market and PMs) are going swimming! In the downward direction...
One of my neighbors has 4 mines in the Klondike area, still producing well, has 1000 ounces stockpiled so far. Said that Russian and Chinese are interested in buying mines up here and one of the higher up "dudes" at GG that he knows said they are expecting gold prices in the 2300$ range in the spring.
Its a recognizable pattern, you have to know it to see it...its not something I can really explain because its made up of numerous candles...but I have been doing my best to try and explain the moves and price levels that come out of it.
There is more to it than this but to keep it simple...if you take a look at gold on a daily you can see that the topping pattern looks like a weighted branch with fruit hanging on the end, the break down is the fruit detaching and falling from the branch and accelerating to the ground, where it will then bounce and land lower and then roll...the rolling process (consolidation) is still to be seen. The rolling process doesn't always play out and we may see a "V" recovery instead.
BTW, the pattern plays out on a 5 min chart repeatedly...thats originally how I noticed it...then realized it obviously applies on a daily also...and seen it playing out as gold was topping.
Tommy, would that not strengthen my scenario? Or do you think it would be so bad as to detonate the fiat world and cause gold to gap up to $5k/oz?
I have a hard time believing in gold being a safe haven in panics because the market is too small. You can't fit trillions from Forex and the Bond world into the gold supply... not do-able in my opinion.
Of course that's just for panics, not the end game Gary sees...
Your still using tos for futures? I`ve been thinking about that more and more. This after hours action where I can`t get to my `Goods` is almost freaking me out. If I needd to tap your brain box, are you available? Thanks for the help!
bot xxx s and p puts on open at 2.02 closed 3.26---my salvation. but pretty much in cash other than that. but never enough.
sold euo on open despite decent internals in retrospect not too bright. always easy in rear view mirror. have some juniors that working out of. those were small but down, other than a few, tired of that game.
when casey reccomends a junior and gets clipped u know better not be in that space.
The EuroTrash decided that raising taxes on banks would solve the problem, hence the selloff. If raising taxes solved any problems then the US would be a Bazillion dollars in the black...
Out of curiosity extacly how many moving averages do you have on your charts? I hear you speak of numerous different ones. Do you think they provide actual support and resistance or are you curve fittig?
I use about 10 MA's that I know with absolute certainty act as support and resistance. If you double check everytime I mentioned one you can see for yourself.
Gold just bounced off the 150sma on a daily...bounces off the 150sma ($1580) and 200sma ($1530) are so expected that buyers start pouring in $5 ahead of time. But I think they may regret it.
It gave some major warning signs, but didn't call a climax high like it did in Silver. Gold never really had a blow off move. Like everything else it doesn't work well in isolation.
Well this is odd. I leave here at the end of last week saying the dollar rally will fizzle, holding a small long gold position from $1640 and a small market short position. I come here doubting my position, and now I see Gary is more or less agreeing with it.
If you want to see a study that will blow your mind at it's ability to call intraday market turns, check out the Tape Momentum study at ThinkScripter. It only works on Tick charts, buy it's basically a tape reading crutch. It shows spikes in the speed of the tape, which usually means either stops were just run or large buyers are stepping in. Requires some interpretation, but it's another excellent tool. The best part is that it's real-time information, not ancient information like stochastics and things of that nature.
Blind, Last week we didn't have the missing piece of the puzzle. I prefer to have all the pieces in place before jumping into the deep end.
But that doesn't mean that I think the dollar has or will top soon, I just think it needs to fall in order for risk assets to rise and since everything is now in the timing band for a major low that should happen soon.
I've come to some very interesting conclusions that I will go over in the weekend report BTW.
Understanding ZSL (double short silver) and AGQ (double long silver)
In order to have a large run up several factors have to fall into place. I'll use ZSL as an example:
1) ZSL's premarket trading price is determined by the % change between the 7am EST London silver fix and the previous day's 7am EST London silver fix. The 7am EST London fix must be lower than the previous London silver. This equates to roughly 7am or 7:15am Kitco spot silver price.
7am London Silver Fix http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/?page_id=54&title=silver_fixings&show=2011&type=daily
2) 9:30 am EST (NY market open) Kitco spot silver should ideally be at, or near, 7am London fix price.
3) 4:30 pm EST (NY market close) Kitco spot silver must be lower than 7am London fix.
4) Above steps must repeat for compounding % (as opposed to a big one day drop).
If the above happens ZSL should soar. If the above does not happen ZSL will under perform its goal to be 2x the inverse of silver.
The same is true for AGQ (double long silver) albeit in reverse.
You have to ask yourself (as I am) if AGQ and ZSL are so complicated is it even worth it to play them? For most people, I'd say no. I'm stuck with what I have for now and will try to make the best of it.
The best way to gain leverage on the metals is to trade either the big comex futures contracts or the mini-versions, then you have no issues with the daily reset or the compounding problem. As a side benefit you get preferential tax treatment, which can make a huge impact to your end of the year bottom line. Plus no hatchet to head monster gaps to worry about.
Well...google flagged me as a spammer again. I guess those long posts calling for a possible gold bottom did it.
Anyway...I've upped my core physical position as of this evening and I have a 3x gold futures trade waiting to buy if we go a little lower. 1585 is still somewhat high for me seeing as how we are in the middle of the night with low volume and probably some whipsawing before morning.
I may have already missed the low however. I have to admit that 1585 isnt' bad which is why I went ahead with the core upping.
I think we are retesting the monday low now/this evening and we won't get much lower down (although sideways chop might ensue).
To be honest I think 1585 is probably the low of the restest and that I should chase and buy in here, but I'm not. Sticking to my plan and will deal with not getting in if that's the result later.
I dont understand why you dont just buy off a tag of a major moving average if you plan on entering, gold tagged the 150sma tonight, tested it again and popped.
If I recall, Gary also suggested the other day that maybe you should just wait until a tag of the 200 to enter, monday night you and I were watching it in realtime and commenting on the blog, gold popped at 1535 right before tagging the 200 (obviously everyone was expecting a bounce off the 200 and poured in). You should have considered putting on your long near the 200, a bit less risk I would say.
I'm not a cycles guy. That's gary. I do follow his advice, but he doesn't catch tops or bottoms as much as mid-moves. I have my own strategy, augmented with gary, that trades different and tries to make high leverage entries with small stops.
I suggested a bottom earlier in the week and many said 'no way', but now they are coming around including gary so I might be right on that call. From a simple observation point of view I think it will be hard to go below 1535. So INT low or not who knows. The market doesn't HAVE to trade in any particular way. We are all just using rough guides.
Based on the monday low and now the decline action late night I simply think there is a reasonable chance we don't go much lower. (You will notice the retracement low after spiking up on monday was 1586 which is the same zone. That's part of the reason.)
I'm not long cause when I say I try to trade leveraged with small stops I mean LEVERAGED with SMALL stops.
I'm shooting for an entry with less than a $10 stop right now going 3x leveraged on gold (3x my ENTIRE net worth). I don't want to lose more than 1-2% if stopped out. Such a trade can be done and I've done them many times before, but you have to pick a low that holds and have a tight stop.
Yes, I think the low at 1585 might be it for the retest, but we were already well above that point before that observation became seemingly clear. So no go.
A buy in here requires a $35 stop or $3500 per futures contract. I can't even get close to 1x invested using that.
So, I simply wait to see if we go lower to my original buy. Or if not I just find a buy later on. A bull market goes up and up and up, so there are multiple points I can make leveraged buys.
Take a look at my post below from early today...it was obvious that if gold lost the 120sma today, which it did right after I posted, that the 150sma would be next strong support. After it lost the 120sma it bounced of 1600, then I said this before it breached 1600"Gold caught a bounce at 1600, but I hate these price levels as support...they never seem to hold" because I believed that buyers would step in at a big round number like 1600, but not enough buyers to hault this correction.
"Gold loses the 120sma today the next support is the 150sma around previous IC high 1577-80, a break of the 150sma and I dont think the 200 will hold this time around, look for support at the C-wave lower trendline around 1490"
Why on earth does blogger keep marking my posts and account as spam?
This is the most horrible blog entity in the world. So many problems and so much crap.
Would you PLEASE consider moving this thing to a better company/site?
Wordsmith or whatever else your tech guy suggests?
We can't block people. We get marked as spam all the time. You can't refresh the posting page without it resetting to view at the top. Etc...the list goes on and on.
As I have mentioned many times before, Gold bounced off the 150sma tonight ($1585) on a daily and grinded right up to the 200sma and tagged it at $1622 on a 5 min, which it is now crawling....if thats not obedience to the MA's I dont know what is :)
I am just fascinated by the PM market though. I wonder what it will take to get the miners rocking like no body's business. I also wonder if they will wait until the very end of the bull when you can't even get physical gold or silver? Then everybody will go to the source where the metals come from.
Thats an earlier headline. The Nikkei 225 has rallied back since. Today's range is 8,501.42 - 8,706.14. Currently at 8701. Straits range 2,669.96 - 2,707.90. Currently at 2700. Taiwan up, Jakarta up, Seoul up 2.7. BUT its about how they close that matters.
WW ... may I ask what moving averages you consider to be important ... I have seen mention of 75, 120, 150 and 200. Also do you use the same MA's on the 5 minute that you do on the daily?
I'm really getting tested now. I'm basically at the lowest point in equity, after miners briefly bounced me into positive ground earlier this week, I'm back to marginal new lows.
I'd be more positive if I thought they'd turn in short order, but I have a sense there is another shoe to drop. As much as I'd like to buy more at these prices, I hope to wait to add the last quarter TR to my portfolio until Gary gives the green light, which will bring me to 10% TR to portfolios. (currently 7.5% with no clear skies ahead).
The only good thing I can look to is that I get more shares for the same amount TR added, as prices go lower.
No fun on my end, but sticking to the plan regardless of the pain.
i've decided to give up on actually flowing the dollar since i'm not trading it. /dx and uup both too jumpy/illiquid to do the type of volume analysis i like.
i'll let the big boys do that research since i'm not that convinced what the dollar does even matters. i'll just follow /es and /gc since those are what i trade.
some buying coming into /es here.. we'll see. if there's a PPT i'd imagine they're on red alert right now.
JL ... it's not just silver ... everything is up today, down tomorrow. Copper down 7% yesterday ... up 4% today ... it's everywhere. If you could pick the direction daily you would triple your money in a week.
If it's any consolation I drove everyone crazy with my hedge talk, and what just happened is exactly something that should have made me a barrel full of money on my hedge, but my stupid ZSL hedge (which was SIZEABLE by the way) has *vastly* underperformed my expectations. Now I realize that I did not do my homework on ZSL so it is I who am stupid.
My total trade is down -39%.
The only reason I can laugh it off is because at least I don't have options expiration breathing down my neck like the old days.
PMs will eventually surpass their all time highs by a wide margin. I would be stunned if the HUI did not join the party at some stage. It just showed what it was willing to do... and we had not seen the GDX crowd do THAT in a loooong time.
You'll be alright man. It's just time now. Worst case scenario I see 24 months before new all time highs. But the longer it takes, the more energy will be stored up for the next series of moves.
strat81, good advice. i'm going to look into that, the euro contract does seem to be worlds more popular.
took 1/4 long position here in SPY at 116.0 with a stop in the mid 114's. no buy signal just yet, but i'm seeing a lot of anamalous orders come in. i think if that gap was going to fill it would have done so by now..
Demark insights from Kevin Depew @ minyanville for 9/29/11: EURO: WEEKLY on Bar 5 down of 13 - DOWN Qualified Break with a target of 1.2859. DAILY only on bar 6 down of 13 and also qualified a Daily Down Break implying the full 13 count is probable Gold - had an up open (based on 8:30 am time) so it did not qualify the 1616.60 level - YET. Need an UP Close, followed by a Down Close below that level, then a Down open to achieve a break. Gold was supposed to get more of a reaction to its 1-4 DAY setup, but it's been ho-hum so far. CRB Index - qualified a DOWN level similar to Gold on Sep 21, then 7% down. Crude oil - qualified a WEEKLY break this week with a target below $60/barrel!! Good news for the average Joe! Dr. Copper? Lots of insights today about copper indicating more S&P downside. Jason Goepfert also has an interesting article today showing that a market selloff isn't inevitable. Demarkwise - Copper recorded a TD Sequential BUY yesterday, good for 12 days. Also, WEEKLY BUY Setup recording this week, so next 1-4 weeks should be good for copper. SP still through Bar 12 DOWN on the DAILY. But MONTHLY, we have the last gasp of a very potent MONTHLY SELL setup that is coming to a close tomorrow - thank goodness! Also, if we do not get above 1200 tomorrow, we will have another down monthly close in the S&P. To see what we had happen in 2008 - a MONTHLY qualified break, we need an UP close, followed by a DOWN close below the break level (currently at 940ish S&P), then a DOWN open at the start of the month. So, the earliest this could happen (unless we have a violent rally tomorrow) would be December 1st. Thanks for reading!
QQQs are seriously ugly and SPY SoS is holding firm... But most importantly, the 10yr yield looks ready to roll over - RSI wants a rest and the 2% line looks firm...
,
ReplyDeleteProShares AGQ (double long silver) announced a stock split 2:1
ReplyDeletehttp://www.proshares.com/resources/news/proshares_announces_etf_share_splits_09272011.html
Sorry if someone already posted this.
Danno
ReplyDeleteAGQ already split. You just didn't get the extra shares :-))
Yeah, SF. 3-for-1, the hard way.
ReplyDeleteOh ur right. I didn't go that far back.
ReplyDeleteHi Poly:
ReplyDeleteIn the last thread you posted:
“Harry,
You're suggesting 3 straight 20 days gold daily cycles (This past one and two more). My stat's show that would be a MAJOR outlier.”
Can you please share what Stats you are referring to? I love Stats and would be interested if you could provide some pointers on your research.
PS: In case you guys have not heard this one before: Stats are like a bikini: They reveal A LOT, but what they hide, is MOST IMP! :-D
.
ReplyDeleteSF,
ReplyDeleteOuch! LOL.
I'm not really worried about AGQ so much as trying to figure out why ZSL hasn't performed better yet. It's taking some work but I'm gaining a better understanding. 7am London Fix, NAV, etc. 1x ETFs are not this flipp'n complicated and I can see why some would quickly become frustrated.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteWhat is the deal with the . (dots)?
ReplyDeleteDanno,
ReplyDeleteSorry, the double was an iPhone accident. The goal is to subscribe to the post so all entries get emailed to us. We have to put some text there so a dot is used. It's not like the premium site where you can subscribe without posting.
What's your take on hold here? I think you mentioned you have been following closely since 2004 and called correctly that gold was getting tired.
Danno:
ReplyDeleteThe dots are there in place of ‘BEEP’. Placing a Dot enables us to get subsequent comments in email.
^Thanks.
ReplyDeleteRJ,
ReplyDeleteI think Gary was right to say the PM bottom could be in around November.
The only question is exactly how low will PM's go between now and then. That depends on so many factors it's very difficult to guess. I think we'll know the bottom by the way the trading feels, prices that have been hit and the time frame.
Hold or sell just depends on your time frame. I'm not trading here. Just keeping my AGQ and waiting for the bottom, when I will dump my ZSL position and (if I have the balls) buy more AGQ or SLV.
Interesting report last night, Gary.
ReplyDeleteThe way I figure, metals are the bull market and we should be long. The only question is when, but if a trader can take some pain, now is as good a time as any. I agree with all the '08 comparisons we see lately, but highly doubt it will play out the same as then. Fear of another '08 is exactly what the bull needs to make sure most are on the sidelines scratching their heads, unable to participate when the bull resumes. Too many know exactly what to do if deflation brings metals to their knees, so we'll not have that opportunity to load up. Gonna have to get in front of it.
This guy is saying the bear market is over:
ReplyDeletehttp://evilspeculator.com/?p=24185#disqus_thread
It's actually pretty convincing.
It will not surprise me if metals test the recent lows again this week or next, even make slight new lows, but that is a dip to buy and not confirmation of a deflationary collapse.
ReplyDeleteTo me, the correct answer is to be long some, not pick a spot and be all in or out. Have position sizes that allow one to ride out what could be several tests before resuming the upside, keeping some powder dry if wrong. Either way, the bull will correct timing mistakes, as Gary often says.
I am confused ...If Dollar goes down, does it mean that we should buy stocks with both hands? Aren't we in the middle of the window dressing of quarter end? That would mean that everything reverses next week...
ReplyDeleteWith all due respect Gary, seems like you might be allowing the Technical indicators to trump your cycle work? IMO they should be secondary and complimentary, not primary.
ReplyDeleteSB, your point on always holding a core in a major bull market is spot on.
NJ, my stats come from a proprietary system being developed. It has a database of every daily cycle for this bull market. It shows that 3 back to back daily cycles of just 20 days would be a first.
poly
ReplyDeletehow common would it be for a gold intermediate cycle to consist of just 2 daily cycles
Poly,
ReplyDeleteThe COT and sentiment aren't technicals. One of them by itself doesn't trump cycles. Two of them together potentially does trump the cycle, especially when we consider that gold is in the timing band for a daily cycle low.
Those two signs suggest that this may be a greater degree bottom.
Does a straight beat a flush? A full house beats two pair?
ReplyDeleteI am starting to think There is heavy-handed market manipulation associated with the FED twist. The markets are just too weird asof late.
These are the times in the past, 2008, where I've lost a lot being on the wrong side of the track.
Thursdays are usually down days in the markets....if I were trading (especially equities) I'd be selling today. Those with big kahunas and are long could wait to see if we take out yesterdays highs within the first two hours. Call me Maverick after Gooses death but to me "it doesn't look good."
ReplyDelete.
ReplyDeleteSilver is still tracking 2008 nearly candle for candle. Nothing has changed yet. A PM bounce here has got to be eyed with great suspicion IMO.
ReplyDeleteThe more 2008 talk I hear, the more I love my positions. :)
ReplyDeleteEveryone,
ReplyDeleteI was thinking of going 25% in gdxj for an old turkey type of approach. This way I have skin in the game if it goes up. As far as I see it It's on sale today. Tomorrow might be a cheaper price and I can pick up more. Is there really that much more downside?
Poly
ReplyDeleteNice to see you got a descriptive answer.
Gary said...
SF,
I've put my expectations in the nightly report. If you think I'm wrong then fade my trades
GLD/UUP
ReplyDeletehttp://i55.tinypic.com/2co35mv.png
assuming nothing fundamental has changed with the gold/dollar relationship, this *could* be the bottom of the entire D-wave.
but if the dollar can keep going then of course this should correct quite a bit further.
pure speculation now but i think europe will elect to default/tell greece to sit and spin which should drive eur/usd upwards, and so am leaning on the gold correction being more or less done with give or take $100.
still holding 1/4 position in QQQ longs until some fog clears.
The EuroZone will not allow Greece to crash. It's easier to kick the can down the road with hopes that the economy will grow. In other words when the private sector generates enough jobs which in turn increases the tax base required to keep governments afloat. That has been the plan all along here and abroad. Remember, if Greece goes the EuroZone will go with it.
ReplyDeleteSB,
ReplyDeleteI do say I have to applaud your conviction during this mess.
That being said I agree with the statement that one needs a core, for all these surprises.
Haggerty,
ReplyDeleteyou only have 100% downside with unlimited upside!! ;-)
zsl ready to go up again??
ReplyDeleteKeys,
ReplyDeleteThanks, and I was thinking of you and Natanarchist this morning at breakfast as the two fellas here that rode the bull better than the rest out of '08 (maybe sooner). I have to say it feels kinda lonely on the bull by myself. Not sure what that means. :)
I did put some more digital fiat confetti to work into this decline. Turned up my total risk .5% of portfolio, not much but keeps me focused on what I should be doing (buying).
ReplyDeleteAnd I'm still expecting some more weakness or sideways chop in the near future. In fact, I prefer the metals/miners sell off a bit into the weekend to shape the charts to my liking.
ReplyDeleteShalom, you're not entirely alone. I have a core of physical that is about 15% of my NW that I bought between Jan 09 and August 10. I don't even consider selling that.
ReplyDeleteNothing to see here; just keep moving along now:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nQd7k-TlsKM&feature=feedu
This may end badly for all of us...
Keys,
ReplyDeleteBy the way, that conviction has lost me the miner profits I made since June when I first bought. Only thing I sold at profit was 70% of my PHYS awhile back.
The first half of the year was great, but I've been getting tested since then.
I'm done for the day unless things turn sharply lower, in which case I'll likely nibble some more. Good luck.
CMT,
ReplyDeleteI'm with you there. I don't even count my physical, and have been very comfortable adding to that recently. I really never have a thought to sell any of that.
SB,
ReplyDeleteSorry you feel so alone, perhaps you can do the scrooge mcduck things and swim in your pot of gold...I know that makes me feel happier. lol
Yeah, that makes me feel better too!
ReplyDeleteOh,and I did actually sell some physical. It was the one coin I talked about the other day that Joesph Lemma said was a fake. Since it's not silver, but numismatic which I'm not really interested in, I decided to sell it on Ebay. Paid $16, sold for $242.
I got that going for me. lol
SB,
ReplyDeleteSorry for your lost returns...The gold bull is a hard one...never know what is up or down...I am sure though, despite your short-term set-backs that your investment into non-confetti will produce results. Still think you should do the scrooge mcduck thing, guarantee you will feel even better about the non-confetti position. :)
Alright I am out too...best of luck to those braving anything!
SB, been following your posts all along.. holding and adding to NEM, AUY, MDW, AAG, CFM, IPT and REN when you add.... you are not alone...and thanks for your great work...
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteGermany remembers 1923 like the US remembers 1932. The US will do everything it can to avoid another depression and Germany will do everything it can to avoid hyperinflation again.
ReplyDeleteHere is a chart showing the value of one german gold mark in paper marks from 1909 to 1923
Gold mark price
Here is a graph of inflation in Weimar Germany in 1923. The mind boggling part is it's a log scale chart.
Weimar inflation
Google weimar hyperinflation and you'll find plenty of images of people burning paper money and sweeping it off the streets. Germany would rather see the PIGS default and will have to be drug, kicking and screaming, down the money printing path.
.
DeMark musings from Kevin Depew on 9/28/11:
ReplyDeleteDow Industrials recorded a TD Sequential 13 DAILY BUY and confirmed it yesterday with a bullish price flip. A high today above yesterday's bolsters confidence in the BUY signal. Signal good for 12 days
He didn't say anything about this, but I believe the Russell recorded one on Thursday and had a bullish price flip yesterday as well.
SP still through bar 12 of 13 of BUY, but may be difficult to record with so many individual stocks recording 13 BUY signals already.
Nikkei - recorded both DAILY Sequential 13 and Combo 13 BUY signals. Bullish price flip as early as tomorrow's session.
TLT - Confirmed a DAILY TD Sequential 13 on Friday with a bearish price flip yesterday. WEEKLY recorded a 9 SELL setup last week, so 1-4 WEEK reaction implying October may not be a good month for bonds!
That NG just cannot stop falling...
ReplyDeleteSB,
ReplyDeleteI did jump in very close to the bottom in '08 Isold everything when gold hit 1652 (1650 was my target ) so I have been on the sidelines for the last few months in Gold. Never sold Amy physical. Also have not bought any physical gold or silver for quite a while, at least 1 year or more. Hopefully we won,t have to stay up all Sunday night to wait for the best prices. Maybe we I wil give WW my account info and he can buy for me. He seems to around for these spike lows and calls them quite accurately.
Lots of cash in my trading account now. Still have all our CEF , and some gdxj in the kids account. That account is 60% cash.
Gary, any thoughts about a confirmation, up or down happening next Friday on jobs report? You have mentioned in the past that those reports can turn the tide.
Nat,
ReplyDeleteI think it's what happens between now and the employment report that is probably going to be important. If the dollar continues to selloff then the employment report would most likely signal a cycle bottom, not a top.
If a cycle bottom happens to come below the previous pivot, then the dollar has problems.
Shalom Bernanke,
ReplyDeleteYou described the coin as a seated dollar. All seated dollars, by definition, are silver.
If it wasn't fake, you probably had something else completely different.
not sure wise or not---boy spy puts on the open. we just go back and forth-----horrible gamble--
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteGold support at 1616...120sma. We may see gold crawl the 120 for a bit if it holds.
ReplyDelete75sma resistance yesterday and today.
ReplyDeleteGold loses the 120sma today the next support is the 150sma around previous IC high 1577-80, a break of the 150sma and I dont think the 200 will hold this time around, look for support at the C-wave lower trendline around 1490
ReplyDeleteWW, I like your numbers. I say that Asian market trading tail from the other night will need to be validated during market hours, in the least. This is not positive action and the SOS number yesterday was very indicative. Only problem is, where is the bounce!
ReplyDeleteJust want to post some virgin observations here for potential discussion. Disclaimer I'm in cash. Poly and WW thanks for the contributions (among others, too).
ReplyDelete1. The COT report last week showed the small specs piling on the longs, in gold. Despite the OI level, this is bearish to me, hence the Sunday raid.
2. The chart Gary puts up in sentiment....notice the bollinger bands. Narrow for a ling time (like a coil) and this move down they are starting to widen. To me this looks like sentiment can continue down and keep pushing the BB down..
Gary is still the best out there and this blog is top notch. I am finding that I really only should keep up with things here and ignore all else. It mostly bogus and I get diminishing returns on time spent...
The lower this goes, the more money well make buying at the bottom so I have no problem with this decline extending into several weeks.
ReplyDeleteTZA and TNA, what do they reflect, SPX, DOW, NAS?
ReplyDeletewolf
ReplyDeleteyou bought PUTS at resistance, after a revesal candle and now we have a swing high. Sounds like a perfect low risk entry to me......
If gold does happen to lose the c-wave lower trendline, support at 1455. I would think that would be the lowest we will see for a long time.
ReplyDeleteTZA, TNA = Russell 2000 small caps
ReplyDeleteIWM is the underlying ETF
ReplyDeleteMy falling fruit pattern in gold looks to be in full force.
ReplyDeleteWW
ReplyDeleteMy chart shows gold didn't actually tag the 200MA the other day so could get a bounce / retest there.....
Anybody buying PMs here?
ReplyDeletethink $ runs further into oct. internals were good.
ReplyDelete$top = gold bottom.
ReplyDeleteSilver getting slaughtered...
ReplyDeletePoly,
ReplyDeleteI will do my best to point out the next bottom (if we make new lows), as I did in Asian trade at 1535, if im awake this time like I was then. I will also confirm it as a short term bottom, which at this point will most likely turn out to be a long term bottom.
Thanks silverhound.
ReplyDeleteSilver,
ReplyDeleteYour right it didnt actually tag the 200sma, everyone was expecting that and poured in at 1535, basically right there. We may get a bounce off the 200, but if falling rapidly, panic will drop right through it.
With all this flip flopping, I wouldn't be surprised if we were buying back UUP within a few days.
ReplyDeleteI can't argue with your logic William :-)
ReplyDeleteDan,
ReplyDeleteIm still long the dollar, short the market. Waiting for gold to finish crapping.
out of QQQ longs
ReplyDeleteless money in /gc than its lows
SPY sell signal target 115.2 stop 118.1 (not taking this one so 100% chance of it happening)
WW,
ReplyDeleteAny expectations on how long you'll be holding onto the dollar trade? I'm still in as well along with EUO. Please post if you sell or see something.
WW,
ReplyDeleteCongrats. Seems you've really been playing these markets really well the past few months. Unfortunately I sold my large UUP position this morning with everyone else and am left with a small short position on the markets. Let's see how we close today.
Is there another one of those dynamite triangles in the chart somewhere......
ReplyDeleteslumdog managed to pick the 1922 second top and the 1530 low with them so far, they seem to be pretty common when panic sets in.
WW,
ReplyDeleteI'm waiting for John Paulson to unload all of his gold before buying GLD. Still long dollar as well. I thought that the US$ bounce out of 3 year cycle low was a time to buy and hold.
WW,
ReplyDeleteYour insights are such an enormous help....you have no idea! You are right there with play by play, in the moment information. We couldn't do without you. Many, many thanks!
I am also still long UUP, and also have puts on USO as per Doc's recommendation, and Harry's. All in all, not a bad day for my account.
I sold half my UUP. Out of my shorts here; I've got no visibility for what tomorrow's Greece/Germany duet might mean for the market. Stepping aside except for small short positions in SKF and my long UUP, 1/2 position.
ReplyDeleteckpc,
ReplyDeleteIm glad to have helped in anyway, thank you in all humility. :)
That is to say, small short via SKF. I'm long SKF.
ReplyDeleteckpc,
ReplyDeleteWho is Harry?
Ryan,
ReplyDeleteThe dollar is all about what the market decides to do. I have been expecting the market to put in a new low and then spawn a bear market rally, but at this point the market has already retraced to the 50% fib level within weeks off its low, I wasn't expecting to see that until after a new low was in within 40 days of the prior low and a bear market rally topping around the 50% level. So at this point I expect the market will simply break down and continue lower without any significant bear market rally, or the market will break out of this consolidation and make new all time highs....but its hard to fathom that happening being the world is in the toilet right now. Who knows, anything can happen, everyone is nuts right now.
Looking like silver might have another margin hike waiting in the wings. I'm gonna have to ride this out, but not adding more today. Will sit with what I have and be patient.
ReplyDeleteWW... you can say that again!
ReplyDeleteGold caught a bounce at 1600, but I hate these price levels as support...they never seems to hold
ReplyDeleteWW,
ReplyDeleteyou are not alone, I kept my DX as well... very silly of me, but I didn't feel like selling this morning as I was itching to sell the damned Nasdaq!!
WW,
ReplyDeleteI can't agree with you more so I didn't do anything this morning. But the market has been so volatile, anything can change on a dime.
I never thought I would do this in my life: I just picked a few hundred shares of the gold miner I hate the most: Kinross.
ReplyDeleteW2,
ReplyDeletemaybe I missed it earlier, but can you explain your falling fruit pattern? If it`s your own thing and you don`t want to give it up, that`s cool too. Long gold &dollar, short spx, let`s embrace the disaster :)
Let's look at the BIG picture:
ReplyDelete1. Forex: very high odds we have a 3yr cycle low
2. Bonds: the 10yr is just under heavy resistance at 2.0%. Not likely we break above given...
3. The Fed's Twist pulling money from other assets in an attempt to make coin by front-running the Fed
4. The Fed said: no more.
The result: The LITTLE fish (stock market and PMs) are going swimming! In the downward direction...
One of my neighbors has 4 mines in the Klondike area, still producing well, has 1000 ounces stockpiled so far. Said that Russian and Chinese are interested in buying mines up here and one of the higher up "dudes" at GG that he knows said they are expecting gold prices in the 2300$ range in the spring.
ReplyDelete86,
ReplyDeleteIts a recognizable pattern, you have to know it to see it...its not something I can really explain because its made up of numerous candles...but I have been doing my best to try and explain the moves and price levels that come out of it.
There is more to it than this but to keep it simple...if you take a look at gold on a daily you can see that the topping pattern looks like a weighted branch with fruit hanging on the end, the break down is the fruit detaching and falling from the branch and accelerating to the ground, where it will then bounce and land lower and then roll...the rolling process (consolidation) is still to be seen. The rolling process doesn't always play out and we may see a "V" recovery instead.
86,
ReplyDeleteBTW, the pattern plays out on a 5 min chart repeatedly...thats originally how I noticed it...then realized it obviously applies on a daily also...and seen it playing out as gold was topping.
Lowtax,
ReplyDeleteI think you are correct unless Europe has a major default that signals world panic.
Tommy, would that not strengthen my scenario? Or do you think it would be so bad as to detonate the fiat world and cause gold to gap up to $5k/oz?
ReplyDeleteI have a hard time believing in gold being a safe haven in panics because the market is too small. You can't fit trillions from Forex and the Bond world into the gold supply... not do-able in my opinion.
Of course that's just for panics, not the end game Gary sees...
W2,
ReplyDeleteThanks. Any reason this should not show up on GLD?
LT, What happened with the bank holiday in 1929? I think the gov demanded people turn in their gold by 1932 so to control it's price??
ReplyDeleteHui incredibly weak relative to gold
ReplyDelete86,
ReplyDeleteGLD has gaps, futures 5 minute charts are ideal brother.
Your still using tos for futures? I`ve been thinking about that more and more. This after hours action where I can`t get to my `Goods` is almost freaking me out. If I needd to tap your brain box, are you available? Thanks for the help!
ReplyDeleteLooks like we hit the Weekly EMA 34 on $GOLD...
ReplyDeletebot xxx s and p puts on open at 2.02 closed 3.26---my salvation. but pretty much in cash other than that. but never enough.
ReplyDeletesold euo on open despite decent internals in retrospect not too bright. always easy in rear view mirror. have some juniors that working out of. those were small but down, other than a few, tired of that game.
when casey reccomends a junior and gets clipped u know better not be in that space.
86,
ReplyDeleteYeah still use TOS...ofcourse im available for you bro.
aw shucks.....:)
ReplyDeleteWell at least we now know stocks are going down when gold does. No one knew yesterday what they would do.
ReplyDeleteThe EuroTrash decided that raising taxes on banks would solve the problem, hence the selloff. If raising taxes solved any problems then the US would be a Bazillion dollars in the black...
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteAK,
ReplyDeleteIt not going be how low gold goes to make people think the bull is dead, it's going to be how long it stays down. Like an animal faking it's death.
Silver is stretched a bit far below the 150sma, we may see silver bounce before gold.
ReplyDeleteWW,
ReplyDeleteOut of curiosity extacly how many moving averages do you have on your charts? I hear you speak of numerous different ones. Do you think they provide actual support and resistance or are you curve fittig?
Strat,
ReplyDeleteI use about 10 MA's that I know with absolute certainty act as support and resistance. If you double check everytime I mentioned one you can see for yourself.
Strat,
ReplyDeleteBTW, did the VSA indicator spot the gold top?
I have been wanting to apply it, just haven't got around to it yet :)
If anyone here is using Google Chrome v14, would they be kind enough to go to http://www.zerohedge.com/ and tell me if it displays for them? Thank you
ReplyDeleteEamonn,
ReplyDeleteI use chrome and zerohedge works for me.
gold silver troll, thank you
ReplyDeleteEamonn, mine is working...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/
Eamonn, I sent you the report you were probably looking to read.
ReplyDeleteat ease, thank you :o)
ReplyDeleteHas anyone invested, experience or knowledge of: PHYS
ReplyDeleteSPROTT PHYSICAL GOLD TRUST ETV
SB
ReplyDeleteYou know something we don't about increase of margin in the wings?
Gold just bounced off the 150sma on a daily...bounces off the 150sma ($1580) and 200sma ($1530) are so expected that buyers start pouring in $5 ahead of time. But I think they may regret it.
ReplyDeleteCool article with Doug Casey regarding physical;
ReplyDeletehttp://www.caseyresearch.com/cwc/doug-casey-buying-physical-gold-and-silver
WW,
ReplyDeleteIt gave some major warning signs, but didn't call a climax high like it did in Silver. Gold never really had a blow off move. Like everything else it doesn't work well in isolation.
Well this is odd. I leave here at the end of last week saying the dollar rally will fizzle, holding a small long gold position from $1640 and a small market short position. I come here doubting my position, and now I see Gary is more or less agreeing with it.
ReplyDeleteWW,
ReplyDeleteIf you want to see a study that will blow your mind at it's ability to call intraday market turns, check out the Tape Momentum study at ThinkScripter. It only works on Tick charts, buy it's basically a tape reading crutch. It shows spikes in the speed of the tape, which usually means either stops were just run or large buyers are stepping in. Requires some interpretation, but it's another excellent tool. The best part is that it's real-time information, not ancient information like stochastics and things of that nature.
Blind,
ReplyDeleteLast week we didn't have the missing piece of the puzzle. I prefer to have all the pieces in place before jumping into the deep end.
But that doesn't mean that I think the dollar has or will top soon, I just think it needs to fall in order for risk assets to rise and since everything is now in the timing band for a major low that should happen soon.
I've come to some very interesting conclusions that I will go over in the weekend report BTW.
Blindweb,
ReplyDeleteBeing able to do a complete 180 based on new information is what makes Gary the great trader that he is.
Understanding ZSL (double short silver) and AGQ (double long silver)
ReplyDeleteIn order to have a large run up several factors have to fall into place. I'll use ZSL as an example:
1) ZSL's premarket trading price is determined by the % change between the 7am EST London silver fix and the previous day's 7am EST London silver fix. The 7am EST London fix must be lower than the previous London silver. This equates to roughly 7am or 7:15am Kitco spot silver price.
7am London Silver Fix
http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/?page_id=54&title=silver_fixings&show=2011&type=daily
Kitco Spot Silver
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html
2) 9:30 am EST (NY market open) Kitco spot silver should ideally be at, or near, 7am London fix price.
3) 4:30 pm EST (NY market close) Kitco spot silver must be lower than 7am London fix.
4) Above steps must repeat for compounding % (as opposed to a big one day drop).
If the above happens ZSL should soar. If the above does not happen ZSL will under perform its goal to be 2x the inverse of silver.
The same is true for AGQ (double long silver) albeit in reverse.
You have to ask yourself (as I am) if AGQ and ZSL are so complicated is it even worth it to play them? For most people, I'd say no. I'm stuck with what I have for now and will try to make the best of it.
The dollar slashed through its 200MA like it was made of butter. That's after developing a 4 month base to use as a launching pad.
ReplyDeleteMy guess is that Gary's original guess will be correct. The dollar is going a lot higher. Course a back test of the 200MA is almost certain.
But I don't know much. It's just that if an idiot like me can see it, then it must be pretty apparent! lol
Blindweb,
ReplyDeleteToo funny... good timing.
Danno,
ReplyDeleteThe best way to gain leverage on the metals is to trade either the big comex futures contracts or the mini-versions, then you have no issues with the daily reset or the compounding problem. As a side benefit you get preferential tax treatment, which can make a huge impact to your end of the year bottom line. Plus no hatchet to head monster gaps to worry about.
Thanks Strat. I'm not sure futures are for me, but I can see why so many people love them.
ReplyDeleteWell...google flagged me as a spammer again. I guess those long posts calling for a possible gold bottom did it.
ReplyDeleteAnyway...I've upped my core physical position as of this evening and I have a 3x gold futures trade waiting to buy if we go a little lower. 1585 is still somewhat high for me seeing as how we are in the middle of the night with low volume and probably some whipsawing before morning.
I may have already missed the low however. I have to admit that 1585 isnt' bad which is why I went ahead with the core upping.
I think we are retesting the monday low now/this evening and we won't get much lower down (although sideways chop might ensue).
To be honest I think 1585 is probably the low of the restest and that I should chase and buy in here, but I'm not. Sticking to my plan and will deal with not getting in if that's the result later.
ReplyDeleteTZ,
ReplyDeleteAre you concerned about being so far out from the cycle timing band for a intermediate low, which is due in 5 weeks or so?
TZ, why do you think 1585 will be the low?
ReplyDeleteBut you're not buying, that means you not very sure or you dont want to take the chance?
TZ,
ReplyDeleteI dont understand why you dont just buy off a tag of a major moving average if you plan on entering, gold tagged the 150sma tonight, tested it again and popped.
If I recall, Gary also suggested the other day that maybe you should just wait until a tag of the 200 to enter, monday night you and I were watching it in realtime and commenting on the blog, gold popped at 1535 right before tagging the 200 (obviously everyone was expecting a bounce off the 200 and poured in). You should have considered putting on your long near the 200, a bit less risk I would say.
ROB,
ReplyDeleteI'm not a cycles guy. That's gary. I do follow his advice, but he doesn't catch tops or bottoms as much as mid-moves. I have my own strategy, augmented with gary, that trades different and tries to make high leverage entries with small stops.
I suggested a bottom earlier in the week and many said 'no way', but now they are coming around including gary so I might be right on that call. From a simple observation point of view I think it will be hard to go below 1535.
So INT low or not who knows. The market doesn't HAVE to trade in any particular way. We are all just using rough guides.
Paul,
ReplyDeleteBased on the monday low and now the decline action late night I simply think there is a reasonable chance we don't go much lower. (You will notice the retracement low after spiking up on monday was 1586 which is the same zone. That's part of the reason.)
I'm not long cause when I say I try to trade leveraged with small stops I mean LEVERAGED with SMALL stops.
I'm shooting for an entry with less than a $10 stop right now going 3x leveraged on gold (3x my ENTIRE net worth). I don't want to lose more than 1-2% if stopped out. Such a trade can be done and I've done them many times before, but you have to pick a low that holds and have a tight stop.
Yes, I think the low at 1585 might be it for the retest, but we were already well above that point before that observation became seemingly clear. So no go.
A buy in here requires a $35 stop or $3500 per futures contract. I can't even get close to 1x invested using that.
So, I simply wait to see if we go lower to my original buy. Or if not I just find a buy later on. A bull market goes up and up and up, so there are multiple points I can make leveraged buys.
TZ,
ReplyDeleteTake a look at my post below from early today...it was obvious that if gold lost the 120sma today, which it did right after I posted, that the 150sma would be next strong support. After it lost the 120sma it bounced of 1600, then I said this before it breached 1600"Gold caught a bounce at 1600, but I hate these price levels as support...they never seem to hold" because I believed that buyers would step in at a big round number like 1600, but not enough buyers to hault this correction.
"Gold loses the 120sma today the next support is the 150sma around previous IC high 1577-80, a break of the 150sma and I dont think the 200 will hold this time around, look for support at the C-wave lower trendline around 1490"
September 28, 2011 10:17 AM
GARY,
ReplyDeleteWhy on earth does blogger keep marking my posts and account as spam?
This is the most horrible blog entity in the world. So many problems and so much crap.
Would you PLEASE consider moving this thing to a better company/site?
Wordsmith or whatever else your tech guy suggests?
We can't block people. We get marked as spam all the time. You can't refresh the posting page without it resetting to view at the top. Etc...the list goes on and on.
Please consider an alternative.
not a chance.
ReplyDeleteAs I have mentioned many times before, Gold bounced off the 150sma tonight ($1585) on a daily and grinded right up to the 200sma and tagged it at $1622 on a 5 min, which it is now crawling....if thats not obedience to the MA's I dont know what is :)
ReplyDeleteTZ(3285), what does the 3285 refer to? Is it your serial number?
ReplyDeleteEamonn,
ReplyDeleteThat TZ's gold target :)
WW, thought maybe it was something else...
ReplyDeleteI give a buck to know what the buck is going to do.
ReplyDeleteaklaunch ,
ReplyDeleteThe American peso? I say it goes higher.
If you are right then we know what the PM market is going to do.
ReplyDeleteaklaunch ,
ReplyDeleteEvery time I go to sleep and the dollar is lower (-.39 right now), I wake up and it's positive.
Unscientific, yes. Does it work? You bet your a$$ it does. Swing low on the American peso tomorrow. Bank on it. ;)
IBB's chart monthly chart is still looking good. Someday i think i will put a good percentage of my money into that one.
ReplyDeleteI am just fascinated by the PM market though. I wonder what it will take to get the miners rocking like no body's business. I also wonder if they will wait until the very end of the bull when you can't even get physical gold or silver? Then everybody will go to the source where the metals come from.
ReplyDeleteRob L,
ReplyDeleteI'm going to hold you to it. I still have my UUP and EUO. Not going to be pretty if it's still like this in the morning.
AK,
ReplyDeleteCheck out this guys opinion. So far, according to the charts, the miners are okay.
http://goldtent.org/?p=102916
"Asian stocks fall as Europe anxieties flare again"
ReplyDeleteIt ain't over yet.
Thats an earlier headline. The Nikkei 225 has rallied back since. Today's range is 8,501.42 - 8,706.14. Currently at 8701. Straits range 2,669.96 - 2,707.90. Currently at 2700. Taiwan up, Jakarta up, Seoul up 2.7. BUT its about how they close that matters.
ReplyDelete^I guess I was just talking about the perception of what might happen with the EU.
ReplyDelete.
ReplyDeleteWW ... may I ask what moving averages you consider to be important ... I have seen mention of 75, 120, 150 and 200.
ReplyDeleteAlso do you use the same MA's on the 5 minute that you do on the daily?
Thanks for your input to this blog ...
WW
ReplyDeleteIs this what you're trying to explain with your patented "Falling Fruit" pattern
Ripe for picking
.
edit to above:
ReplyDeleteI can see your favourite MA passing through where the lower dotted line runs through the chart
.
i feel like whether or not this gap fills in stocks will be very telling of what to expect for the next week or two.
ReplyDeleteno positions but bullish so long as we're above /es 1141. nice double bottom in copper too.
BROADs
ReplyDeleteSPX----1160 line in sand. If stays above bulls may have a day in control.
breaks---not good.
If the banks turn negative it's probably all over.
ReplyDeletecould end up in red spx
ReplyDeleteSPY SoS building up again...
ReplyDeleteI get so many things wrong it makes my head swell... but I was actually counting down the days,
ReplyDelete"Warning. Possible sharp silver sell off in 10 days."
"Warning. Possible sharp silver sell off in 5 days.
Then -> BAAM!!!
I'm really getting tested now. I'm basically at the lowest point in equity, after miners briefly bounced me into positive ground earlier this week, I'm back to marginal new lows.
ReplyDeleteI'd be more positive if I thought they'd turn in short order, but I have a sense there is another shoe to drop. As much as I'd like to buy more at these prices, I hope to wait to add the last quarter TR to my portfolio until Gary gives the green light, which will bring me to 10% TR to portfolios. (currently 7.5% with no clear skies ahead).
The only good thing I can look to is that I get more shares for the same amount TR added, as prices go lower.
No fun on my end, but sticking to the plan regardless of the pain.
i've decided to give up on actually flowing the dollar since i'm not trading it. /dx and uup both too jumpy/illiquid to do the type of volume analysis i like.
ReplyDeletei'll let the big boys do that research since i'm not that convinced what the dollar does even matters. i'll just follow /es and /gc since those are what i trade.
some buying coming into /es here.. we'll see. if there's a PPT i'd imagine they're on red alert right now.
*following, not flowing. heh
ReplyDeletealso netflix in big trouble.
ReplyDeletethine eyes on banks today---if they hold mkt likely stay plus today
ReplyDeleteThe volatility in silver is just ridiculous.
ReplyDeleteanother inside day setting up on the index's if we stay within yesterdays bar.
ReplyDeleteThe last one of these settups was on the 23rd and gave us the pop into the rally we just had.
JL ... it's not just silver ... everything is up today, down tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteCopper down 7% yesterday ... up 4% today ... it's everywhere.
If you could pick the direction daily you would triple your money in a week.
SB,
ReplyDeleteIf it's any consolation I drove everyone crazy with my hedge talk, and what just happened is exactly something that should have made me a barrel full of money on my hedge, but my stupid ZSL hedge (which was SIZEABLE by the way) has *vastly* underperformed my expectations. Now I realize that I did not do my homework on ZSL so it is I who am stupid.
My total trade is down -39%.
The only reason I can laugh it off is because at least I don't have options expiration breathing down my neck like the old days.
PMs will eventually surpass their all time highs by a wide margin. I would be stunned if the HUI did not join the party at some stage. It just showed what it was willing to do... and we had not seen the GDX crowd do THAT in a loooong time.
You'll be alright man. It's just time now. Worst case scenario I see 24 months before new all time highs. But the longer it takes, the more energy will be stored up for the next series of moves.
Actually the only thing that has some semblance of sanity is the dollar ... it also changes direction daily but at least the general trend is up.
ReplyDeleteDanno,
ReplyDeleteso your core position is silver, not gold?
The weakness in miners today is confounding and frustrating.
ReplyDeleteSt. Deluise,
ReplyDeleteThe best thing to do volume analysis and support & resistance as it applies to the Dollar is to use the Euro Currency futures contracts (/6E).
yes alot of inside days are showing thus far
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$NDX,$COMPQ,$SPX,$INDU,$RUT,$XEU,$TNX,GLD,SLV,TLT|B|H14,3
JL,
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely Correct.
october is worst month in the year for miners
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cxoadvisory.com/5710/calendar-effects/any-seasonality-for-gold-or-gold-miners/#more-5710
october cruel month for gold
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-cruelest-month-for-gold-2011-09-28?dist=beforebell
C Citi group---gap up now lows of day.
ReplyDeletestrat81, good advice. i'm going to look into that, the euro contract does seem to be worlds more popular.
ReplyDeletetook 1/4 long position here in SPY at 116.0 with a stop in the mid 114's. no buy signal just yet, but i'm seeing a lot of anamalous orders come in. i think if that gap was going to fill it would have done so by now..
SB - I couldn't resist...just bought some more AG (First Majestic) as it was dropping (below $16). ;)
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete" 77 said...
ReplyDeleteyes alot of inside days are showing thus far
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$NDX,$COMPQ,$SPX,$INDU,$RUT,$XEU,$TNX,GLD,SLV"
77,
what can i learn from those charts??
Demark insights from Kevin Depew @ minyanville for 9/29/11:
ReplyDeleteEURO: WEEKLY on Bar 5 down of 13 - DOWN Qualified Break with a target of 1.2859. DAILY only on bar 6 down of 13 and also qualified a Daily Down Break implying the full 13 count is probable
Gold - had an up open (based on 8:30 am time) so it did not qualify the 1616.60 level - YET. Need an UP Close, followed by a Down Close below that level, then a Down open to achieve a break. Gold was supposed to get more of a reaction to its 1-4 DAY setup, but it's been ho-hum so far.
CRB Index - qualified a DOWN level similar to Gold on Sep 21, then 7% down.
Crude oil - qualified a WEEKLY break this week with a target below $60/barrel!! Good news for the average Joe!
Dr. Copper? Lots of insights today about copper indicating more S&P downside. Jason Goepfert also has an interesting article today showing that a market selloff isn't inevitable. Demarkwise - Copper recorded a TD Sequential BUY yesterday, good for 12 days. Also, WEEKLY BUY Setup recording this week, so next 1-4 weeks should be good for copper.
SP still through Bar 12 DOWN on the DAILY. But MONTHLY, we have the last gasp of a very potent MONTHLY SELL setup that is coming to a close tomorrow - thank goodness!
Also, if we do not get above 1200 tomorrow, we will have another down monthly close in the S&P. To see what we had happen in 2008 - a MONTHLY qualified break, we need an UP close, followed by a DOWN close below the break level (currently at 940ish S&P), then a DOWN open at the start of the month. So, the earliest this could happen (unless we have a violent rally tomorrow) would be December 1st.
Thanks for reading!
QQQs are seriously ugly and SPY SoS is holding firm... But most importantly, the 10yr yield looks ready to roll over - RSI wants a rest and the 2% line looks firm...
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ReplyDeletethe $ is important as other markets attached 4 now. Still long xxx S&P puts. hairy 4 awhile-- support 1142 1150
ReplyDelete