This is only the first daily cycle correction. We should still have at least one more daily cycle yet to go and it's probably more likely we have two with the next intermediate term decline coming around the end of summer.
Let's face it the market has only dropped 3.8% so far. Even if it reaches the 1150 support level we would still only be looking at a meager 5.7% decline.
I have to ask is it really worth all the false starts and multiple losses trying to catch a minor short trade in a cyclical bull market? Let's face it virtually no one is going to sell at the exact top and exit at the exact bottom so the odds aren't good one would catch even 5%. And if the bull does something to surprise us a profitable short position can evaporate overnight. Hey all it would take would be the Fed extending the TARP program or another round of QE and any correction would be aborted immediately. No, it's just not worth the big risk of big losses for small returns.
Shorting a bull market just isn't a very profitable way to make money.
That being said I like the way gold and miners are holding up so far. Neither one has even dropped below the 10 DMA yet.
All four of my conditions have been met. That means I'm back in " Old Turkey" mode. The goal is to reach strong hand status again. You don't achieve that by trying to time every little wiggle.
Now I'm certainly aware that this could be an A-wave topping out and I might have to ride a B-wave down. I'm perfectly willing to do that. Let's face it in the big scheme of things any B-wave at this stage of the game is just a minor blip. A blip that we won't even be able to see on the chart by the time the bull is finished.
So if I must I will twiddle my thumbs while I wait for the next C-wave.
For multiple reasons though, I don't think this is an A-wave. I think this is still an ongoing C-wave that has one last explosive move higher. On the chance that I'm correct I don't want to lose my position now.
I'll let the day traders worry about the short term wiggles :)
Hey if I'm wrong the bull will correct my timing mistake anyway.
Gary
ReplyDeleteNobody will time the top or bottom perfect, but that doesn't really matter. A trader will try a couple of times, fail and suddenly he will catch that wave that annihilates his cumul of little losses.
The art is to ride a (short or medium) trend early and let your profits run.
Risk management is the easy part to learn, let your profits run is strongly emotional and hard to do.
Except in a cyclical bull market there is no "run" on the short side.
ReplyDeleteThe multiple failures trying to catch a top will eat up any profits that you might make if you manage to catch a correction.
There just isn't enough potential on the short side to make it worth the risk.
Yes, that happens.
ReplyDeleteBut a heavily overbot market in a cyclical bull gives a good opportunity to the trader.
The rather safe opportunities to play the market in the longer term are rare. Right now the only one is short the euro (very heavy position). We entered a multi year bull market for the dollar as the only safe haven in this world.
I do have to admit that PM's are the most difficult asset to trade. Stocks are far easier.
The reason is that gold is still a religious item. So you really need to "belief" in it to be able to keep it.
The problem that I suspect almost every bear has learned the hardway is that heavily overbought can just continue to get more overbought. This market has been extremely over bought for at least a month now.
ReplyDeleteOf course the bears will come on and gloat that the market is correcting but the reality is that in real time the markets were in jeopardy of entering a runaway move. You can't short one of those successfully. As a matter of fact if the market enters one of those type moves it can run for months.
It really is meaningless to trade in hindsight. In the real world we all have to trade in real time.
I think if most gold investors would just pull up that long term chart it would be much easier for them to hold on to their positions. Unfortunately most people get distracted by the day to day action.
Gary
ReplyDeleteWhat you write is correct, though as far as my experience goes, the shorting eventually turns out to be successful if done carefully. Though I must add that I never will get rich that way.
Recent examples
I was wrong two weeks ago and lost, but I'm right now and the profits already exceed the losses.
The same with the euro. I tried and failed twice (last year) but caught the trend afterwards.
The first is peanuts but every bit helps, the second is big already. In a way this confirms your thoughts that it only really pays when you catch a main trend.
So yes!
Maybe I must wonder whether all these efforts really are worth it or do I only need them for the adrenaline (a real possibility).
thanks and good "investing"
Oil looking good...lower...equities lower...yeller lower and the ole dawler gettin ever so close to that thar 84 level...will cover gold sharts just below 1150...
ReplyDeleteadios fellers
Gold might be muddling through for the time being, but silver, platinum and palladium are all getting squashed for the second day in a row. PLAT and PALL are now testing the March breakouts that seemed to suggest upside for the rest of the space, and silver has lost support at 17.50, which had been a key April swing low and March resistance.
ReplyDeleteThe panic trade appears to be on. Anyone looking to go long any asset (including PMs) needs to wait this out, imo.
Jeepers...euro may get to 126 TODAY!!!
ReplyDeleteNice 15 buckaroo drop in ole yeller...
Deflation is a coming...
Giddy-up fellers
Lookie here...oirl going straight to 75 for only a brief stop then to 70...
ReplyDeleteLOL I think we were hearing the deflation theory in Jan. Do we really want to go down that path again?
ReplyDeleteRemember if one can keep their heads about them it's times like this when bargains can be had.
Gary:
ReplyDeleteA couple months ago, you began this talk of how the Dollar isn't strong. That it was some kind of illusion because it was the Euro that was weakening.
Last night, you again said that the USD is not really strong, but it's just that, again, the Euro, but now also, the pound and yen that were weak.
Why even discuss USD strength if this is how you want to frame dollar strength or weakness.
I know some give the US DX a bad rap, but hey, from where I stand, the USD just smacked the Sing Dollar 2.4% over the past 48 hours. SGD is a good proxie for the Renmninbi/Yuan.
It's also given the Loonie (CAD) a good spanking close to 3%.
Of course, CAD is a proxy these days for crude oil.
What's your point exactly these regarding the dollar?
Is it that it's losing traction against commodities? But CRB is not even close to 2008 levels.
I like the concept of holding like Old Turkey, but not that it matters, turkey hunting season just opened up the Monday before last (in my area) and extends the month of May.
ReplyDeleteStill, Gold will be much higher over the next few years.
Dollar up against franc.
ReplyDelete4%.
WOW.
I just dont see any illusion here.
"We entered a multi year bull market for the dollar as the only safe haven in this world."-wildebeest
ReplyDeleteGold is actually the only safe haven in the world, even if the dollar is second, or the best paper safe haven.
As far as PM's being difficult to trade, I'd note that GLD's beta is a measely .10
In 48 hours forex platform, of course.
ReplyDeleteFolks you have to get off the 08 levels as a measure.
ReplyDeleteMy point is that a rising dollar isn't a sign of deflation like it was in 08/09. If it was oil wouldn't have risen from $70 to $87.
Gold wouldn't rally $150 at the same time the dollar was rising.
The dollar is rallying because Euro traders are freaking out right now.
Like everything this too will pass.
Gary:
ReplyDeleteIt's not just a Euro thing.
It's so obvious to those of us in the currency markets. Currency-wise (even emerging market) it's been a broad-based strength we're seeing. Loonie and Franc are catching up quick with Euro and Pound.
It's just Oz and NZ Dollar that are doing relatively well and that's due purely to expectations of interest rate differential.
BTW, I have no problem being bullish stocks and USD simultaneously. And you can throw Gold into the mix as well.
Some time ago I mentioned that the USD inverse correlation dynamic with certain asset classes maybe a thing of the past.
K,
ReplyDeleteI'm just pointing out that in purchasing power (which is the only sign of value that really matters) thedollar has not been strong.
It's irrelevant what the dollar is doing against other currencies...well unless one is a currency trader.
All that really matters is how many dollars one has to pull out of their wallet to buy "stuff".
Gary-
ReplyDeleteYou talk about gold a lot and that's fine. You actually play the silver market which is way thinner and NOT gold at the point regarding 1. perceived safe haven/currency play/store of wealth 2. Is easier to manipulate that gold 3. Is way more volatile 4. Yes, it "needs" to play catch up, but I think the better and safer play until the tail end of C waves is gold.
Folks who followed you into those very risky silver miners are getting crushed.
Certainly if you are going to invest in silver or silver miners you have to be able to withstand large drawdowns. There's no way around that one.
ReplyDeleteThe reward of course is much bigger gains when the trade turns.
But if you can't withstand volatility then by all means just buy gold.
Curious if everyone who was waiting for a pullback to buy is buying.
ReplyDeleteWe have the BoW signal and Bollinger band signal.
Miners have worked off the overbought conditions and have been decoupling from the market.
Do you finally take the opportunity or do you still hesitate waiting to make the "perfect" trade?
gary, what do u think of SLV vs GDX? both are basically leveraged gold but i feel like SLV has the ability to decouple from the stock market more. thoughts?
ReplyDeleteProbably a toss up as the miners have been decoupling lately too.
ReplyDeleteI've bought shares in a few juniors I've been waiting to grab at some discount. increased holdings some in a few already own.
ReplyDeleteAlso bought a PGM play, SWC. Crazy stock to own, but one with probable pleasant upside surprises in a PM bull market.
I fully expect drawdown from now, but this is an old-fashioned panic that must be exploited.
I worry and lighten up a little on shares if EUR YEN below 119 and OZ and NZ Dollars lose more than 2% against USD from here on.
In response to Gary's comment --
ReplyDelete"Curious if everyone who was waiting for a pullback to buy is buying."
I have been buying on the way down. SLW, GDX, FCX and yes, BHP. Decent entry points since new positions are only net <3% down.
Adding to positions today, thank you Mr. Market. Silver miners look quite strong...relatively.
ReplyDeleteJust got to my office and haven't opened my charts up yet, but looks like silver miners got a massive turn around from the open. BB trade would have been a perfect entry there. I'll be adding today, will report back.
ReplyDeletegreat post again Gary
ReplyDeletethanks
Well I will start then:
ReplyDeleteyesterday i bought hl,slw and some ABX september itm calls. Today I added some Hl, SVM and more ABX calls. SVM was the best this morning 13% down I couldnt resist adding.Still looking for SSRI and PAAS and maybe some NEM calls.
If I hadnd allready enough of CDE I had added this too.
Still looking for some cheap junior, anyone suggestions please?
I was thinking about buying but didn't pull the trigger. I would have if this morning's weakness had continue.
ReplyDeleteNGD is up 4% today and GDXJ is green, but they got hit harder yesterday than the large cap miners.
SLW was probably a buy at 17.50, but I own enough SLW. Average cost of $4.16. :-)
Cheap juniors?
ReplyDeleteGBG, MFN, NXG
I own NXG, not the others.
NG is down heavily today. I don't why and don't like the company.
What caught my eye today is the market is down, the dollar is up and some of the silver miners are actually up, the rest are recovering. This is quite bullish for silver.
ReplyDeleteAlex,
ReplyDeleteMy suggestion is to not be using calls right now. If this turns out to be an A-wave you will lose everything during the B-wave decline.
The best time to use calls is at an intermediate bottom before either an intial C-wave thrust or a C-wave continuation after a consolidation.
Our best shot at that came in Dec. but as we now know it didn't pan out.
So now we are stuck waiting to se if this is an A or C.
Gary, whats the prognosis on Crude? Its fallen around 8-9% in the last two days. some of us are experiencing a huge draw down (obviously I am leveraged heavily :( ).
ReplyDeleteWell crude should be close to a cycle low. I suspect it will bottom along with the stock market.
ReplyDeleteI have to ask, why are you buying a secular bear market? And more importantly why are you leveraged on the long side of a secular bear market?
Thanks for the quick revert Gary. Well, like you have tried to educate us many times, but for some reason, we few don't get it at all, we end up trading for few bucks and forget the larger picture.... i hope it doesn't end up burning me too bad..
ReplyDeleteAnon
ReplyDeleteC'mon man...long oil!!!!...China is slowing along with the whole world...oil lower...much more than you think along with many commods...
I ended up liquidating everything last week and just got out of my remaining CDE, HL and AUY. All three of these have sucked big time this entire year. I have no patience for stocks that refuse to participate in any of the daily rallies (to the degree the others have) over the past 4 months. Yea, they may finally surge, but I'm going to concentrate on those who have been much strong during the sell off and have rallied in a more healthy way. So, I've got a measly little 225 share position left in SSRI, which is another turd. Overall, my return for the year is -.85% Whoopdefreakingdo.
ReplyDeleteI'm gonna wait for a swing low on HUI & XAU and then start adding. I'm about 98% cash. Jumped into some physical, right before the 10% sale on silver went down.
Gary
ReplyDeleteYou absolutely can't teach common sense...You are either born with it or not...I really do not know how you do it...
Gary, you were adamant early in the year when you called D wave that we could NOT have a C wave with the dollar turning up the 200 DMA and entering a cyclical bull. The dollar looks like an unstoppable freight train and all surprises have come to the upside. Maybe this all ends soon, but how does your thinking we are in a C blend with the USD? (Obviously the Euro crisis is having something to say about gold catching a bid now.)
ReplyDeleteSo if Dec-Feb was our D and we are in the A now, what type of correction is typical for a B wave down for both the POG and the miners.
I'll hang up and listen to your answer.
Thanks for your advice/concern Garry, i am only using about 1% of my money for the calls I know the risk, but ABX looks like a nice bull flag which will break to the upside if the markets bounces and with gold showing so much strange lately I am willing to gamble on it;)and i have a short term price target so no marriage.
ReplyDelete@Frank
I allredy have gbg and nxg but MFN never came across my scans will look into it thanks.
My best junior so far is NXG followed by NSU and CGR.
No one is more surprised than me that gold has disconnected from the dollar. But the fact is gold rallied almost $150 despite a strengthening dollar.
ReplyDeleteAt some point the dollar will enter and intermediate decline. It's way over due. Possibly when the EU writes the check to Greece.
If this is an A-wave then I would expect gold to at least test $1100.
At the moment I really have no idea whether this is an A or C.
The D-wave, if that's what it was, didn't act at all like any other D-wave which is what makes me think this is still a C-wave.
Gary:
ReplyDeleteA, B, C, D waves--
while I respect the fact that these might have been distinct features of the gold bull over the past 10 years, or a little longer, I imagine the A-B-C-D pattern is off a small sample size.
What I'm saying is this: Gold might be moving into a new pattern from now on.
Might be but I'm not going to trade based on something that has never happened yet.
ReplyDeleteWhat a ride!
ReplyDeleteI've now got a nice core entry position on the physical front. GG would be proud. I wonder if he is going to come up out of the bunker and say "hi" soon. ;)
ReplyDeleteNah he freaked out because I dared question his precious manipulation theories :)
ReplyDeleteHe needs those so he has an excuse when things don't do what he want's when he wants.
One has to wonder how the conspiracy crowd can explain a $150 raly in the face of a strongly rallying dollar.
ReplyDeleteOh I remember they call it a controlled retreat LMAO.
Apparently they don't understand that when you try to manipulate somethig and it backfires there is no controlled retreat.
You just get your face ground into the mud.
To the guy who caught SVM, congrats.
ReplyDeleteYou must be the Usain Bolt of the PM traders!
SVM
Alex,
ReplyDeleteIf you want some really beaten up juniors, check out Andina Minerals and Gryphon Gold.
Frank:
ReplyDeleteWhat broker/platform do you use to get some of these OTC/PK stocks?
Commission $20 a trade?
TIA
I would not buy them OTC/PK in the US. These juniors are on TSX or TSXV in Canada.
ReplyDeleteInteractive Brokers is a good option for Canada. If you are a non-US person then Swissquote is an option, but IB has the lowest commissions.
If you are really focused on gold miners then a Canadian discount broker is a good idea. E.g. Questrade.
Gary, could you comment on recent rumors about the government targetting commodity prices through restrictions or bans on ETF and OTC vehicles as well as taxation of miners and oil companies? Australia just announced massive new taxes on mining profits. I'm in the same boat as you are regarding market manipulation of PMs BUT, just like you, I see higher commodity prices as a threat to the economic recovery and so it makes sense that governments would also see the same threat. Why should they not target this counterproductive outlet of the Fed's liquidity and how will it NOT be bad for gold and silver prices, assuming it happens?
ReplyDelete"I'll start off by saying that I don't think the recent selloff is going to be an intermediate type decline like we saw in January and February."
ReplyDeleteIt may look this way if you are only considering the US stock markets. But if you look more widely, say at the UK and Australia stock markets, and at base metal prices, you can see that it's already an intermediate type decline.
Well I don't think the government will be taxing gold or silver miner profits. They wouldn't make a lot of money from that as miners don't make a heck of a lot of profit.
ReplyDeleteBut here is the problem and what short sighted politicians don't consider. Anything that attmepts to force price lower will also curtail supply.
If it doesn't pay to expand then no one is going to. Then supply shrinks at the same time demand increases. Economics 101 when demand outpaces supply price rises.
Any attempt to manipulate the markets will ultimately have the opposite effect.
It's why I have to laugh when the cospiracy nuts throw the naked short theory out has to why gold isn't higher. If anyone has a ton of naked shorts out on gold it most certainly isn't going to drive price down, it's going to send price to the moon.
It really isn't possible to manipulate markets.
Most intermediate declines last 1-3 months. Even in the UK and France the drop has only lasted 13 days and it's not even down 10% yet.
ReplyDeleteI think this will probably just be a severe daily cycle low. An so far it's been very moderate here in the US.
Gary, I agree about supply/demand. However, keep in mind that pumping oil out of the ground is still profitable at $60/bl. The government doesn't have to raise taxes to the point of unprofitability, just to lower profitability from its current lofty heights.
ReplyDeleteI don't think "allowing" companies a small profit will be conducive to continued commodity expansion. Human nature needs the lure of big reward in order to undertake big risk.
ReplyDeleteBasically I think it's probably a watse of time to worry that governments will be able to force commodity prices lower.
Besides we aren't really interested in energy anymore. It's not going to outperform during this stage of the commodity bull anyway.
GARY: what TIME ZONE are these comments marked in? I initially assumed Eastern (aligning with NY time like most US financial sites), but it doesn't seem that way as i read. If it is an option on Blogger, why not set the zone to Eastern for clarity. I'm guessing it's set to Pacific right now.
ReplyDeleteWell...I just confirmed my suspicion with my post. This site is marked to Pacific zone. Since many financial people read it and since there are many comments like "I want to know if people are buying HERE" assuming a time, it would be more beneficial if you changed the time base to EASTERN so the comments made sense. My 2 cents.
ReplyDeletePS: yes...this is a C wave and will continue. Enjoy the profits.
ReplyDelete(Good site, thanks for the free commentary.)
--time zone guy
Dear Friends,
ReplyDeleteHere is Mondays Flashnews which I would like to share with you as important time ahead.
Thanks & God Bless
Mahendra Sharma
Dear Members,
Three important things we have mentioned in this week newsletter and these were:
USA market would outperform each market in shorter period of time but yes weakness will start in USA market from late Tuesday and correction will remain for longer period in other markets so stay away until 27 May. Asian and European markets ready to tank big from late Tuesday.
Last week base metals corrected big as expected, this week also we huge correction in copper, platinum, palladium, zinc, aluminum, nickel and base metals stocks to nose down big so watch this carefully, hold short position in base metals. This week newsletter we mentioned that great time to accumulate base metals short ETF’s and base metals stocks. Don’t cover or buy back until Mars turn positive so wait for our indication which may come in early June. Watch SMN, GLD, DTO, EDZ and FAZ.
Monday precious metals traded as predicted but from Tuesday we are expecting huge correction and I don’t know where this correction will end (surely not before 27 May) so stay away from metals. Still 20 to 30% correction can’t be rule out as there was powerful Astro indication that is why three months back we mentioned gold could reach $750. Trade carefully in metals and metal stocks as metals will pass through worst Astro cycle. This Tuesday to early Friday we see metals falling sharply.
Coffee is one of our favorite now after dollar, Monday it moved up sharply, any corrections should be taken as buying opportunity.
Grains to remain side until 15 May, short term traders should buy Soy and corn on Thursday.
In this week newsletter we also predicted sharp fall in oil from mid Tuesday so watch this prediction, Fall will continue for whole of this week.
This week we are very negative on commodity currencies, also pound and Euro will fall. Tuesday is good day to buy Yen. Dollar index should hit 2010 high during this week. Keep accumulating dollar on any weakness or around 82.20.
This week - We are expecting gold and silver to fall up to five percent. Oil will fallow metals. Our first target in gold $1123 and silver $17.12. Oil will easily reach $81.20. Currently gold is at $1186, silver $18.71 and oil $86.35. My astro calculations says that big crash in base metals, metals, oil, and stock will happen from Tuesday and dollar will be only one on rising side (it will be on fire).
Thanks & God Bless
Mahendra Sharma, Monday 23.30 New York
Hmm gold at $1185 this morning. It doesn't appear that this guys crystal ball works any better than anyone elses.
ReplyDeleteLike I always say you have to have a death wish to short a bull market. Other than just an uncontrollable urge to gamble there really is no reason to short bull markets.
I guess we'll just have to wait for Mars to turn positive...
ReplyDeleteHello fellers...
ReplyDeleteShorted more of ole yeller around 1180...other positions still the same...yeller looks to break down from here...imho
I'm sellin dawlers at 85 for now...i really do not trust these governments...they may try to pull a wabbit out of their hat here...
ReplyDeleteG,
ReplyDeleteIt looks like you may be right. Gold is certainly acting like it wants to go to $1200.
Gary,
ReplyDeleteI got very long stks this morning as I said I would if we got a pullback. Please hold my hand thru this latest selling. It's scary.
thanks
Just wondering why you would want to buy a secular bear market, especially with gold resisting the stock market correction?
ReplyDeleteThere must be a lot of fear out there to watch gold rocket higher today on a strong dollar. Even my miners are up today and the indexes are looking horrible.
ReplyDeleteThanks Gary!
Gary, as an trader/investor i always look for opinions contrary to my own.
ReplyDeleteDo you think that it's possible that 2008 was the point of max debt, and there was a huge deflation scare/reflation attempt, but now deflation is inevitable, something akin to a double top? What if Greece is similar to bear sterns, and all the other countries will go down just like the other investment banks... finally bringing the deflation that bernanke postponed? We can't bail out everyone...
Just a thought, I don't really believe it but I could see it being possible.
I show the best performing stock right now is physical gold PHYS up 5%.
ReplyDeleteAs usual, "dawler boy" isn't anywhere to be found, now that he's getting cranked by his gold short.
ReplyDeleteWonder if he stopped out yet?
Also, what happens if Trichet sticks by his tight policy even while the eurozone is collapsing? Bernanke can't do anything to stop the deflation if it starts in Europe then spreads worldwide.
ReplyDeleteI wonder why Sprott (PHYS) is up 4.1% while gold itself is up 1.9%?
ReplyDeleteShouldn't they go hand in hand, or am I missing something?
Gary,
ReplyDeleteI think I am starting to understand you. You are a gold and silver investor only. When you say we are in a secular bull market, you are talking of PM only.
Somebody just mentioned stocks and you said why are you buying in a secular bear market???
Now that I am totally long stocks and no longer short them, I am more confused than ever.
I am long dividend paying stocks, gold and silver ETFs, minors and some speculative plays.
Now what is your advise for stocks? Do I hold my losses? Short them?
Dawler boy here...diversified here my boy...funny how you just pick out my losers...typical of people like you...
ReplyDeleteFinally sold my DAWLERS this AM @85 from 78...still very short the equities and still short oil...only out 15 in the yeller stuff...overall you could say i am to the plus side of the p&l just a little...wink wink..hahaha...
you guys just don't pay attention...
adios amigo...
Other than large cap Gold, the miners aren't really doing that well considering gold up $23.
ReplyDeleteThe miners are equities, and for them to be positive with the broad market down more than 2 percent is doing pretty well, imo.
ReplyDeleteAnother huge down day on the equities..1150 and 1140 offered no support whatsoever. Gary, please correct me if I am wrong, but I think today is day 10 of these daily declines...and usually 10 it lasts from 7-10 days...so where do we bottom out in equities??
ReplyDeleteLooks like a crash to me. Nothing like being on the wrong side of things 6 out of 6.
ReplyDeleteFollow me everyone.
whoa. what a crash. reminds of the dark days. months worth of progress and gains wiped out in couple of days. This reminds of the big bad bear market 2 years ago. Gary, when do we actually go long in equities? or should we just stay out of equities totally?
ReplyDeleteOMFG..S&P down 9% ....this is nuts...no one saw this coming in their wildest dreams...i hope it revives before eod...
ReplyDeleteMother of god. The Dow was down 1000 pts. momentarily.
ReplyDeleteMy TIP holding is doing quite well. :-)
from down 10% to 4% now. What the hell is going on? Gary, were you expecting this sort of a selling pressure? Do you think the bearish sentiment has reached its peak for this to turn around?
ReplyDeleteWell, the big cap miners are doing well today, which is not that good for me.
ReplyDeleteAnnoying that NXG and NGD are down so much with gold shooting higher.
I have small positions in GDX and AUY.
Philip Morris International was momentarily down 20+%. Incredible.
ReplyDeleteS&P was also down over 100 points at one point. This is insane. So many stops hit in one day. People lost huge money. Now, what is next?
ReplyDeleteOmg, this was so beautifull i fell like i could cry seeing the market spike down and than running up in seconds. have you seen apple down to 200 and 2 minutes later back to 240. awesome, these days are to be kept in memory for long time, and thanks to you mr savage with gold that strong my minig positions where at no point giving me the creeps. what a day and it aint over yet :)
ReplyDeleteS&P broke well below the 200day MA and thankfully, snapped back. Shit, I think just wet my pants. I hate watching people lose money like this.
ReplyDeleteMFN is down 8% today after reporting earnings, which were not too bad.
ReplyDeleteWas that a SWING LOW. HOLY F'N SHIT!
ReplyDeleteGold now @ 1211. some of us had the urge to book profits...now feel stupid for doing so early. still holding a small quantity. A or C, it doesn't matter anymore..it is pretty clear now to just add more on dips.
ReplyDeleteNot to say I told you so...... but......
ReplyDeleteGold and the $
It's the only place to be in this mess. Oil will not be what kills us..... it will be the sovereign debt.
One more rally attempt and then pukage is my guess....
Looks like Gary's move into whatever cyclical low has happened, and scared everyone shitless in the process.
ReplyDelete"Dawler boy" : You're the man, posts always appreciated.
My comment yesterday @ 7:51 AM I didn't like what the yen currency crosses (pairs) were saying. EUR YEN spiked below 119 for a second time, pre market, so lightened up on some miners which were already green, and sold big chunk of nonminers.
Bought back some cheaper silvers.
EUR YEN and the FRANC were key indicators today and yesterday IMO.
So I sold some of my portfolio at market open.
ReplyDeleteThanks Gary and other bloggers I've learned from greatly past few years. . . We're so lucky to have the internet.
CNBC fools are reporting that there was an error by a huge trading firm that caused this crash. Apparently, some fool put in a sell order using the the alphabet "b" (billion) instead of "m" (million). Should we really buy this nonsense?? I am just amazed. I hope next time some one doesn't key in the alphabet "t" (trillion) or "g" (gazillion).
ReplyDeleteMight have something to do with PG & ACN. Check out the charts. Madness
ReplyDeleteGary
ReplyDeleteWas that the 'WHOOSH' we had today?
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteGary:
ReplyDeleteBloomberg "FX Master Class" breaks sponsored by FxPro, pushing the gold story hard.
So a buying exhaustion today in GLD? Or an earnest early beginning of the mania phase?
I know you think the daily cycle is far from over for gold to peak around here.
My what did I miss today :) Looks like we got our big whoosh.
ReplyDeleteKahlid
ReplyDeleteThanks much there partner...we are all in this to make money...yeah i may have lost on ole yeller today (mark to market) but dang gone it everything else turned out okie dokie...especially around 2:30...YEEE DOGIEE!!!!...all I can say is these are the kind of days I live for...I hope everyone had a P (profitable) day...Drinks are on me at the ole saloon...
Its a beautiful day!!!!
Dawler boy out...
Just one other thing there partners...today was very significant in many respects about the future...we'll talk later but just givin' ya'll something to ponder about...
ReplyDeleteDawler boy gone...see ya at the bar...
Who woulda thunk the trade of the year would be long UST's and Long Gold?
ReplyDelete>Who woulda thunk the trade of the year would be long UST's and Long Gold?
ReplyDeleteOnly one guy I know. David Rosenberg!
Strange times indeed.
Gold is going lower gentlemen. Everything is happening as expected... Gold is peaking around the time that the market is crashing. Thing is, the market isn't done crashing yet *(just my perspective - Wednesday, June 02, 2010 looks like a good Market reversal date), but Gold is nearly done peaking.
ReplyDelete** Buying ZSL on its way back up.... AT worst, I'll get stopped out with a modest profit, to re-enter later. **
Trade carefully gentlemen.
pH
No trading for me. Just investing at this point :)
ReplyDeleteOr Monday, May 24, 2010 could be a market reversal date... either way, Gold is going down from here...
ReplyDeleteIronically, it just seems like yesterday (actually it was over the last month) that everyone was talking about Gold being manipulated.... Now everyone is 'buying the dip'.
pH
Wasn't gold supposed to top at 1186?
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure your crystal ball is working.
Hey it is a bull market after all:)
I knew you'd call me on that... so, truth... I haven't found a crystal ball for gold, yet ! :-) But I did try to find an area of resistance, so that I'd know to buy up until that point and no further . I would add to gold/silver only after a correction (that what I've been calling the B-wave). Sure I could be completely wrong, but looking at technical indicators (not fundamentals alone), the price of gold is overbought, and it's moved to a "minimum of 1186", and the market is diving... In my book (1, 2, 3, 4), this was all predicted and foreseen. Again, I could be completely wrong, but all I can invest/trade on is my 'research' and view what I've seen in past trends. More truth, I'm 100% cash right now (with my PMs money). Got out and now seeking prime entry point for ZSL (gold should have topped either 5/6 or 5/14) :-)
ReplyDeleteI never really understood these arbitrary dates that things are supposed to happen. With so much going on in the political arena and credit markets how could anyone possibly know what politicians may or may not do on a certain date?
ReplyDeleteI can understand a cycle "timing band" based on years of historical data. But I just never got this exact date stuff.
I find it amazing how many more hits the site gets when I'm weathering a drawdown than when I'm on the right side of the market :)
ReplyDeleteDuring January while I rode out the gold correction hits were four times what they are today. I'm surprised I wasn't tarred and feathered then.
Today...nothing!
I wonder what that says about human nature :)
Most people use Fibonacci sequences, and apply that to prices. I used Fibonacci and applied it to dates... Who knows, could be hogwash. But you know me. I'm desperate for those major reversal dates (critical for a successful swing trader in a volatile market)... Will try anything that has shown itself to work several times in the near past, in conjunction with other indicators which alone are likely useless, but in combo are powerful.
ReplyDeleteI'm still warming up my tar for when the miners get caught up in the selling frenzy. Feathers, anyone?
ReplyDelete@PH..you're an honest man. dawler boy..same to you too..
ReplyDeleteso a question to Gary or anyone:
What are charts/technical's/patterns/IHS/P&F/..etc suggesting as target price of gold for latest moves? What would another all time weekly close suggest should that happen?
another question...for all who wanted to tar & feather or inflict some other medieval tortuous act on Gary ..haha..if you haven't sold your positions from Dec/Jan..are you in the green yet?
"tarred and feathered" haha
ReplyDeleteJust enjoy being on the right side
lol - who knew.
ReplyDeleteGold topped on 5/6, but that top didn't hold, so later it topped (as predicted) on **5/14** . (see the prediction above)
wow.
ZSL - to the moon!!
Gold is the driver of the sector. The swing has to occur on gold.
ReplyDelete