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Sunday, May 16, 2010

STILL A CYCLICAL BULL

Until the pattern of higher highs and higher lows is broken this will remain a cyclical bull market. Shorts trying to jump the gun run the risk of getting caught opposite the Fed's printing press.

The secular bear trend can't resume until a yearly cycle bottom is broken. That yearly low came this year on February 5th.


As long as the decline holds above that level this will continue to be an ongoing cyclical bull market.

If the decline were to break 1044 then we would have our first warning that the secular bear trend has returned. The correct strategy would not be to sell the break though. Sentiment has skewed extremely bearish already. That kind of sentiment almost always spawns a multi-month rally in bull markets and a powerful counter trend rally in bear.

A safer strategy would be to sell the rally not the breakdown.

125 comments:

  1. So, Gary, do you sell a failing rally (that doesn't make a higher high) or sell on the way up before it tops out?

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  2. As long as the secular gold bull is intact I wouldn't waste my capital selling short :)

    But to answer your question because I don't really think you were asking what I'm going to do... I would sell when sentiment got too bullish and I saw heavy negative money flows coming out of the SPYDER's.

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  3. USD shooting up to 87 this evening! Incredible!

    -Jew

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  4. Even better is gold shooting straight up with it.

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  5. Does anybody know why PHYS would trade at such a huge premium over intrinsic value?

    Seems like it'd be much better to buy something like SGOL in my opinion, unless I'm missing something?

    Thanks in advance.

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  6. Why would you want to buy something so thinly traded? Buy GLD instead.

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  7. I don't intend to trade SGOL, and I like that they report actual serial numbers of the gold bars that are held in Switzerland. Also has lower expenses, if I'm not mistaken.

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  8. Since I'm not trading in and out of SGOL, the liquidity is not as important as the etf structure.

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  9. Cramer is pounding the table on gold, calling for $2000 -- this is a BAD OMEN for the metal. And I am not being cute or clever... his record as a contrarian signal is stunning! We should be very, very wary.

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  10. As I've said multiple times over the last week gold is due for a move down into a daily cycle low. I'm sure most bears will assume that will be the end of gold.

    However there has never been a C-wave that topped without first entering a parabolic price move. The meager 19% above the 200 DMA by miners doesn't qualify.

    So I think the odds are greater that the correction will just serve to cool off sentiment which will be followed by the "normal" parabolic top.

    BTW Cramer is the only one pounding the table on gold. Everyone else I've seen on CNBC has been telling everyone to sell.

    Amazing considering no one was advocating selling stocks as they were powering higher day after day in April. Just goes to show you that we aren't even close to the end of this secular bull.

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  11. Actually I'm pretty sure Cramers record is about 50-60% just like every other Guru in the world.

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  12. CNBC is confusing at best, but more likely propaganda. I don't like being on the same side as Cramer, but CNBC is a waste of time in any case.

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  13. Cramer's opinion isn't worth much, contrarian or otherwise. There are lots of Cramer bashers just like there are lots of Cramer groupies. Just ignore him.

    I think the dollar is holding back the PMs. Should the dollar start to weaken, we'll see that parabolic rise. I agree with Gary that a resetting of bullish sentiment would be positive in the longer term for the PMs.

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  14. Miners continue to say no way to golds advance.

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  15. Gary, Is it possible that we first get hit by deflation, which is followed by inflation once the Feds starts QE again.

    The commodities and oil seem to be hinting at deflation.

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  16. Yes we are hinting at a whiff of deflation. I just don't think the Central banks are going to allow it to get out of control again before they start printing. The EU has already begun with an initial run of 1 trillion.

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  17. Silver miners getting hammered the past three sessions.

    You those 100% invested in the silvers giving back all your profits yet? From your entry a month or so ago? SLW has been holding ok. SSRI position entered late Dec is still down 18% Ouchy indeed.

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  18. I guess it just depends on if one is short sighted and worried about what happens today or tomorrow.

    If you only care about where the miners are going to be at the end of the secular bull then the best thing to do is go on vacation and ignore the wiggles :)

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  19. Anonymous 10:36AM:
    Yes it's not looking too good, I must say...
    But on the currency front my long Dollar positions against most currencies has paid off handsomely the past few months.
    87 on the index has come sooner than I expected and I am out of most my long Dollar positions at this point.
    The only position I'm holding is short Canadian.
    I believe there's a lot of pain in store for that country, not least because their financial companies are clueless (think Questrade!)

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  20. I'm fully expecting to experience a significant drawdown with my recent miner purchases (going back to January).
    SWC ain't for the faint-hearted! LOL

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  21. Today's comeback doesn't bode well for those foolish eonough to short the market.

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  22. I told y'all back in nov 2009 dawler UUP target 90 and look at it go! We are headed for a correction which means more nitrus for the dawler. Da yeller junks gonna get smacked hard! Beware people, don't make me come back here saying told y'all!!!

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  23. I do believe you've been telling us for some time that gold was going to get "smacked hard".

    In case you haven't noticed gold is trading opposite the euro and with the dollar. A higher dollar will be good for gold.

    It's a good thing we didn't pay any attention to you then. And I think I'll just continue to ride the gold bull now also. I'll leave the manic trading to others. It's not how one goes about making the big money.

    The impending correction in the dollar and gold should be a buying opportunity...maybe the last before the final surge into the C-wave top.

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  24. Khalid, what happened with Questrade?

    p.s. CNBC (fast money)today had some genius on there recommending shorting gold.

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  25. Frank:
    Questrade looks all promisingly professional but I can assure you they aren't.
    Their website completely fails to inform non-North American prospective accounts what the exact account opening requirements are. In fact, it is misleading. I was finally informed, after wasting a good 3-4 hours trying to do it online, that they have these exceedingly prohibitive requirements. For starters I have no intention of wiring them 100K just so I could get access to a couple of juniors I'm interested in.
    I might also add that those requirements are stupid, but maybe that's just the way the Canadian system is set up. And cause I'm so used to excellent customer service from US banks and fin institutions.
    Americans who find themselves disappointed in their country these days must realize that the USA is WAY way way ahead of the game globally. You can see how much more inept the Europeans have been, for example.
    France and the rest of Europe I can understand that they may never have a clue when it comes to service, and the UK has improved greatly in trying to catch up with the U.S., but Canada, being so close to the U.S., I can't fathom why it would be so backass, for an OECD nation.
    I would know that they really are. Having dealt with Canadian banks as a money market/fx dealer for a few years I can tell you they are lazy, arrogant, and incompetent, Bank of Montreal and Bank Novia Scotia maybe slightly better than the rest... Sorry for the rant!

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  26. Hey Dawler Guy,

    You said you would start shorting the dawler above 85. What happened?

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  27. This is why it's so hard to make money trading. We always hear loud and clear when one of the trader crew happens to be on the right side of a trade. What they don't do is come on and broadcast when they got it wrong.

    For the vast majority of traders that percentage usually ends up being very close to 50%. So it comes down to whether they make more when they win than when they lose.

    It's kind of like the gambling addict who brags about hitting a royal. What they fail to mention is that they had to stick 3 grand into the machine before they won that $2000 jackpot.

    So when all the traders come on to rub it in that they are shorting gold during a draw down or how the "silvers" are getting killed just remember by the time this is all over the buy and hold crowd will have walked away with riches while the traders will in most cases end up with nothing or worse big losses.

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  28. About the only trader I know of who readily admits when he got it wrong is Tim Knight BTW.

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  29. Khalid, if you are non-US person then I would take a look at Swissquote as an option since they offer online trading on the Canadian exchanges. They are number one in CH but are definitely more expensive than Interactive Brokers.

    Actually, Swissquote allows "US persons" to open accounts as long as you don't trade on US based exchanges according to their website.

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  30. Frank: Thanks. I did check them out last time you mentioned them. I already have something similar, Internaxx account, Luxembourg, but hardly ever use them as they are expensive. I need to check if they offer Canadian access. I'm very happy with IB at the moment anyway.
    khalid

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  31. Gary,

    How long would be typical for a C wave to complete? Might this upmove continue through Sept., or is it more a price level you look at to exit than a time frame?

    Thanks in advance.

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  32. I tend to think it will top with this intermediate cycle which is already 15 weeks old.

    The final daily cycle in a C-wave top tends to turn into a parabolic move that can move a long ways in a short time.

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  33. ANON
    I sold them thar longs at 85 ish in the buck...looking to shart sum in the last few day... but no luck at my price...still shart the yeller junk...(OUCH) but my shart oirl was covered fryday and yesterday...nice run in ole black gold... still shart equities but less than last week...
    Hope yall make green today..

    Dawler Guy out...

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  34. I'm beginning to like you, Dawler Guy. You are playing the dollar like a maestro. I can envision what your blog would look like should you start one. Moonshine stills, coonskin hats, and chewing tabaccey with lots of great directional calls! Keep up the great work, you crazy bastard!

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  35. Gary

    Many of the miners are in the gaps, or have fulled filled them on decreasing volume. Trying to time a bottom to deploy capital, cover shorts, etc. is very difficult. I would think that now into early next week is the time to look for a cycle bottom and start legging back/adding positions. Thoughts?

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  36. I went over a few ideas in last nights report.

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  37. Dawler Boy:
    After the Thursday flash crash you promised you'd say something about what what particular day meant for the future.
    So whenever you get the time...

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  38. From Anon Yesterday 10:01

    "Gary, Is it possible that we first get hit by deflation, which is followed by inflation once the Feds starts QE again."

    This, I believe, is is happening now and will continue...One must remember even though the fed is QE everywhere...this is not inflationary until the money gets into the system...the FED is keeping the fiat money in the system for now...God help us if they lose control...

    Dawler Guy...

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  39. The money is being given to the banks who are either buying treasuries, which the government spends as stimulus or put to work in asset markets.

    So the money is most definitely getting into the system.

    We already went through this deflation nonsense back in Jan. do you really want to go down that road again?

    Does anyone really believe that at the slightest hint of true deflation the Fed won't crank the presses up again and churn out another 5, 10, or 100 trillion?

    I think they've been pretty clear that the will.

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  40. With all due respect...How many bloggers or anyone else have applied and recieved a loan in the last 18 months...There is very little lending by banks...mostly through the gov't...banks are saying NO to many many small business and individuals...
    Gary yes into the system but it is a closed loop now...all you have to do is look who is been gettin the moolah for almost free...
    I am bettin deflation first...

    Dawler Guy out...

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  41. BTW
    Most stimulus monies have went to the states to shore up there deficits and 99 weeks of unemployment the people demand...not much in the way of inflationary issues here...

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  42. Like I said anyone betting on deflation not only got their head handed to them in Feb., March and Apr. but they obviously aren't listening to what the Fed has been saying.

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  43. Only time will tell...
    As long as we all make some moolah...

    Dawler Guy out...

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  44. Dawler guy.

    It doesn't have to be one or the other. Assets depending on credit will deflate, liquid stuff like stocks and commodities, etc will inflate. The money will flow some where..Banks will put it to work.

    Loss of confidence in the security of the underlying asset (dollar, euro) will cause money velocity to go nuts as people flee out of fiat into pms...So the gold/silver play is more of the currency crisis play vs. pure inflation play, inho.

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  45. Dawler boy,

    Gold loves deflation, so you better git sum.

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  46. Anon
    I am tryin to git sum...but not at them thar prices...must git'em lawer to cuver and bi...
    I believe ole yeller will foller commod lawer eventually...looks like them thar jermans want to ban shart sellin...hmmm...dang it sounds lik they all know sumthin the rest of us don't...sumthin's up...
    bee curful ouwt thar...

    Dawler guy out...

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  47. Gold trading up with the dollar is a purely coincidental event. One shouldn't assume that if the dollar started moving lower, gold would fall. The fact is that gold is trading up against all fiat. If the U.S. suddenly bailed out California, for example, the buck might fall, but gold would likely keep going higher... maybe even faster.

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  48. Gary and All,
    I am hearing that Germany is banning naked shorting as of midnight tonight. Nerves are coming unglued as new rules are being considered to halt markets after 5% declines. I have sold all my equities except spec. play GNBT :-) and holding auy, gdxj, hl, hmy, pal, sgol, sivr and ssri. I have 50% cash waiting for any dips...GL

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  49. Y'all confused. I never ever said I'd short dawler at 85, that was the other dawler guy. I set the crap shoot at 90 and now I'm revising that higher. Gazza yes gold is tryin to hold fast to da dawler but it will get smacked hard once we hit the next gas pocket of deflation which will leave gold looking like the deep horizon...UUP is the way to ride this thing for now. Too much risk with the yellar junk! UUP dawler guy.

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  50. Gary,
    I've always wanted a piece of V.
    At what true bear market price (after the price of gold begins to crash) do you reckon I can throw some good money at it?

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  51. I have a very small percentage of capital in the sugar/ag play IPSU since late October. It's down some 10%
    Gary, do you think stocks like IPSU can portend a future inflationary environment?
    Personally I believe the market will take out the yearly lows. The indexes may not be there yet, but a lot of the stocks I follow are in the red at October levels.

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  52. Gary-

    What price did gold officially start this C wave start?

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  53. I think the last, and what Gary thinks is the last surge through 1000 sometime last September.
    That's where the C started.
    Correct me if I'm mistaken, G.

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  54. should have said "final surge". As Gary thinks it unlikely Gold will go below 1000 for the remainder of the bull.

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  55. What's interesting in the currency markets is that Dollar Yen has stabilized somewhat over the past year and a half.
    Everyone has their eye on the Dawler, but the yen, as it is wont to behave during times of risk aversion, has given several currencies, notably the Euro, a severe spanking.
    They say Japan has been in deflation for so long. From what I understand they have been big physical PM buyers for a very long time, since their bubbles collapsed in 89.

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  56. Too bad that miners are coupling with the broad market recently.

    Wow, EUR pushing toward 1.20. I thought it might bounce from here, dead cat style. I was wondering when it would reach 1.18, the Jan 3, 1999 launch price. Hasn't been down there since Jan 2006.

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  57. Gary, not sure if u listen to Richard Russell. He told his newsletter followers to sell stks if the dow transport breaks. I do not believe the stk mkt will break down without the participation of the retail customers. Also Dennis Gartman telling his clients to get out of gold.

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  58. Gary, seems that the PMs held up quite well today despite the haircut received by the general market. What do you think will happen to the PMs when Germany's ban on short selling takes effect? TIA

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  59. Gary, gold is going higher now. Maybe the daily cycle low wil occur from a higher point, or it has already happened. Seems to me that today was the bottom from looking at the intraday action, but I guess we will find out in time.

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  60. I have to agree with Doc. Gold is going to finish the C-wave no matter what happens in the currency markets.

    The C-wave started at $860.

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  61. The last few weeks on the stock market have been pure bear market action. A crash, a 4% up day, every rally sold, a plunge in commodities. This is hardly a healthy bull market correction, especially when there was already a large correction in January/February. Australia has reached below its February lows, and I guess will have another bad day today.

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  62. I doubt any of us are under the delusion this is anything other than a very big bear market rally. What the shorts need to worry about is the Fed's printing press.

    Let's face it, central banks have come way too far down this path to just give up. They are going to print, print, print in order to keep asset prices inflated.

    1, 5, 20 or 100 trillion. I have no doubt they will do it.

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  63. khalid:

    >The only position I'm holding is short Canadian.
    >I believe there's a lot of pain in store for that country, not least because their financial companies are clueless (think Questrade!)

    First off, the ...five Canadian banks are in pretty good shape and (for now) housing market here in Canada is at all time highs. For now.

    But if you are short Canadian dollar because of Questrade, then I wish you good luck. I have two accounts with Questrade. A stocks account and an FX account. They are a (good) discount stock/fx broker, not a bank or even an insurance company.

    What are you talking about? Do you actually trade?

    --cristian

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  64. Gold boy here.

    Goin' long the yeller junk here, will continue to go long the yeller junk, will add the white junk too and keep adding the white junk too. Will sit on my yeller and white junk until this mess is sorted out, most likely I reckon in 5-10 years. Governments, they be flat ass broke and will flat ass print them dang gun fiat debt notes until them cows be coming on home. I don't give a flying fark if the yeller junk goes to 800 and the white junk goes to 10. I AINT SELLING EITHER ONE!


    Yeller junk boy out.

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  65. Gary:

    I am starting to wonder if the truly parabolic move in Gold can occur until the USD/Treasuries buckle.

    In spite of the hoopla, the European malaise is limited to the periphery of the Euro zone. Though Spain is mentioned often with the others, Spain was not fiscally irresponsible and was actually running a budget surplus till recently; support to Spain is going to be much less difficult politically. Assuming Greece/Portugal etc. are excised from the main Euro zone in some form or the other, and European banks given a regulatory Get Out Of Jail card on sovereign Euro zone debt (as Italy just seems to have done) the flight from fiat may take a pause.

    Gold is a very crowded trade, with a lot of hedge funds loaded on it, very much like the short T-bond trade. That trade is already backfiring. If and when Gold does correct it may be vicious and shake a lot of people out.

    If all the GATA talk about paper contracts has any element of truth to it, then as long as the buck is strong, the powers managing the price of Gold will have enough powder to hold the line.

    I do not know enough about A-B-C-D waves but with the USD in a bull market (even AUD/CAD are buckling now) the chance of a parabolic move in Gold is likely reducing.

    All said and done, Gold was not able to get above the 3% breakout threshold above the prior highs so far. Perhaps we may have to wait until the US fiscal mess becomes the focus of the markets.

    Thoughts?

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  66. I think it's a huge mistake to assume gold is controlled by any currency or anyone. Trust me no one is big enough to halt a secular bull market.

    This secular bull will run it's course no matter what happens to the dollar or Euro or pound.

    In case you haven't been paying attention the trajectory of golds advance is already steepening. That's how parabolic moves begin.

    But if you aren't comfortable or don't have the emotional control to hold through volatile moves then just take a smaller position or buy physical.

    For most people the easiest way to ride the bull is by owning physical. One doesn't have the urge to click the mouse that way.

    For some reason it's just not the same as going to your account and seeing red. When one owns physical most people can just go on with their lives and ignore the markets.

    By owning physical you make it very very hard for the bull to buck you off.

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  67. I just copy and paste, fix the errors and then erase the flawed comment.

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  68. Amen, Gary...That is now my strategy. I plan on only using a small % for miners.

    Aviat-

    To me things seems to be unwinding at a rate much faster than in the past. Things are coming fast and furious and while gold may get sold off during a D wave, I have a feeling it will be short lived and bounce back extremely hard. Take a look at how that 2008 lows in gold got reversed. Talk about the bull correction timing mistakes. I think one can not mess around at this point in history. You simply must have gold insurance. Read the latest post from Eric Janszen.

    http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?15580-Before-the-FIRE-Gold-Update-Is-1-237-the-new-720-Eric-Janszen&p=161353#post161353

    (Edit...Gary delete the other ones)

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  69. Gary:

    Gold is already parabolic in Euro Terms; up 30%+ YTD

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$XEU&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p75620241710

    The same advance in USD terms looks not as steep as the December move

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p07024517061

    I guess the question is can the second chart start looking like the first one if the buck continues to look like the first chart?

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p32589245395

    Interesting thoughts about owning physical. But how do resist the urge to hedge your physical holding when it seems the elevator is moving down?

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  70. LOL never once did I pull out a calculator to figure out how much my physical was worth. I suspect you won't either.

    Just go on with your life and let the gold bull do it's thing in it's own sweet time.

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  71. I think you're on to something, aviat, and I share your concern that gold might not have that next kick the cycle analysis might suggest.

    $GOLD:$XEU certainly looks like a parabola, but obviously for most of us, dollar pricing is all that matters. And there it gets a bit more ominous.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$gold:$usd&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p00086126617

    I realize I'm just going to sound like a contrary indicator, and I realize gold was due for a correction, but if gold is to be the currency of last resort (in favor of the dollar) in the face of all the "printing" and panic, I'd like to see something that looks a little peppier than that chart.

    Gold has been losing to the dollar since last week's top. Again, I realize some of that is to be expected ... gold was overbought, the weak hands need to be shaken out, etc.

    So perhaps this is the only way for gold to rally further. I just worry that deflation can trump quite a bit of monetary easing, and the GLD chart from Sept. '07 to July '08 looks eerily similar to the chart from Sept. '09 to now.

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  72. You do realize that one will always be able to find a chart to agree with ones fears.

    As they say bull markets climb a wall of worry. But if one is forever worrying about short term timing they will never get in and if they do they will never be able to stay in.

    At some point in order to ride the bull one just has to say to hell with it, I'm going to ride the bull and nothing he does is going to knock me off.

    All we can do is try to time our entries as best we can and if we fail then we just sit patiently until the bull does what bulls do.

    FWIW no C-wave has ever topped without a parabolic move higher. And that includes miners stretched considerably above the 200 DMA.

    Could this time be different? Sure it could, but how does one go about betting on something that's never happened before. Those are not the kind of odds I like.

    So I will just hold on assuming this time will be similar to the last 6 C-waves and if it turns out not to be then I will just wait paitiently for the next C-wave to come along.

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  73. I would add that "riding the bull" only works as long as the basic premise doesn't change. For instance, if central banks around the world suddenly started tightening monetary policy and governments began choosing the true best long term strategy, then the reason to hold gold would greatly diminish.

    I am completely confident we will continue to see the same thing we've seen for years...easy money policy.

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  74. You could very well be right, Gary, and thus far the action has not violated the conditions you've set out for further upside. I do realize charts are a rearview mirror, not a crystal ball.

    Perhaps I am cherry-picking to confirm my fears, as you suggest, but to my mind I'm considering information that might negate my current thesis. I don't think those are exactly the same thing.

    The gold bulls have taken a lot of comfort in the apparent gold bid coming out of the dying euro. I bring up the $GOLD:$USD chart to suggest that particular trade seems to be waning in favor of the dollar. Considering the mess in Europe and the assumptions built into the long-gold thesis, I would have preferred to see more strength there. Platinum and palladium have also seen better days. I realize they are industrial as well as precious metals, but they were held up as leading indicators for gold when they were breaking out, and now those breakouts are coming in for a second backtest.

    When I look at the unwillingness of the miners to follow gold's run, even as the equity markets made their 2010 highs, I still have qualms. Considering the current market action and its similarity to the '08-'09 meltdown, I also have concerns that forced deleveraging on the part of funds that have been accumulating gold and gold stocks will produce a similar selloff if things get even dicier than they are now.

    I'm also uncomfortable with the assumption that Fed money printing puts a ubiquitous bid under gold. I know you've heard the argument before, Gary, but the Fed's expansion of the monetary base and the government's deficit spending binge are meant to replace a private credit boom that has since collapsed. Those moves may well trump the forces of deflation, but I think it underestimates the size of that credit boom and its current state of collapse to assume it will.

    We'll no doubt see soon enough. I'm not saying I believe you're wrong, and fears (reasonable or otherwise) are a prerequisite for the correction necessary to clear the decks for the next move up. Hopefully those fears don't reflect market conditions that will stop the next leg of the C wave before it starts.

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  75. Gary,

    You mention that Gold is beginning to become parabolic.

    What about the Dollar, that chart is looking parabolic and just Monday there was a double top breakout on the $USD P&F chart.?

    Do you think that we will continue to see both gold and the dollar rise together?

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  76. I think gold is tading on it's own merits now independant of wha the dollar does.

    Certainly everyone has noticed the Euro correlation lately and when the Euro bounces as it surely will I expect gold will trade in symphathy but I also expect that to be brief.

    Let's face it who among us would have expected gold to rally to $1250 in the face of a sharply rising dollar?

    Gold knows that everything happening now is going to lead to more paper being printed.

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  77. Dawler boy into the yeller junk?

    Now yer talkin'! I'll be addin' more on this here down open meself.

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  78. well, guess I was wrong yesterday about the bottom being in for gold. the intraday action looked really strong but it got beat up pretty bad last night, worse for silver. I guess we have some more bulls to kill before we can get our strength back

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  79. Not cuverin or byin yeller or white junk yet...lettin market werk its way lower...no rush it will cum to me...pashents youngins...

    Dawler Guy out...

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  80. I'm in there buying Gold like nobody's business!

    Can't seem to keep prices up though...LOL!!!

    Adding more today, and expect to be tapped out by tomorrow around 11am.

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  81. khalid (paper trader)May 19, 2010 at 7:21 AM

    Cristian:
    What are you talking about? Do you actually trade?
    LOL
    Today, I just put the finishing touches on my short CAD basket (against 4 currencies) with 10% of my positional trading capital, that's going to be leveraged 30 times.
    You honestly think I'm shorting all things Canada, except for a couple junior silver miners, because of my Questrade experience? Maybe you need to reread what I wrote earlier.
    If you want more details and info, email me
    khalloud @
    gmail . com

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  82. They're giving gold away today, fellas. Good fills all over the place in DGP, SGOL...yet to buy miners, but on the menu for tomorrow morning if we get another down open.

    Looking at SVM and NG, close to my buy levels.

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  83. If I had to guess I would say the daily cycle won't bottom until after options expiration

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  84. sheesh...now ya tells me! LOL!

    Trying to fight recency bias is a sumofbitch!

    I bet you're right about opex, but I'm gonna stick with my plan and figure a day or two off won't matter much.

    I still have a juicy "mark" in DGP, so makes it a bit easier.

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  85. $crb looks to have rolled over on the daily charts...no good for commods in general, but gold is it's own story.

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  86. Gary,
    would one start to look for bargains after Fridays close, AH?

    Thank

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  87. Tom,
    To be safest and reduce the odds of a drawdown as much as possible you might want to wait for a swing low.

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  88. the miners are telling you what you need to know

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  89. Remember these things are volatile. If you can't deal with that then go the physical route.

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  90. This is the strongest pullback we have had since the rally started in February

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  91. Just slightly more than the March cycle low.

    Again if you aren't prepared to wheather big volatile moves and especially if you aren't prepared to hold on even if the bull doesn't do what you expect (the C-wave peters out here) then only take what you can hold on to or buy physical.

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  92. Quality,

    Miners are only telling me their stocks. Gold is telling me it'll be much higher in the future.

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  93. P.S. I'm sure I'll be too early again, as usual, but then it'll work.

    Too early to buy miners, IMO, and gold etfs seem the safer play even though the upside not as spectacular.

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  94. Well so much for the gains of last week, the PM are realy starting to piss me off, there is no fun in owning them. They are underperforming the market on up days and on down days the are like the 2x 3x etf breaking ones neck.
    Only every now and than they are a bit stronger than the trend. I mean whats the problem?DO they got an attitude or something ;)
    Sry guys just needed to vent a bit cause its realy frusting to see all the gains get erased but gold still higher than before. WHy are the miners lagging this hard?
    Back to sqare one.
    BTW. bought some palladium today just for trade, down 7,3% good chacne of a bounce. Planing to add some silver throu an physical ETF but wont buy till silvers falls under 18$.
    Anybody buying anything today?

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  95. Gary
    my risk gauges in the currency markets, EUR/YEN, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, CHF/JPY, AUD/JPY say the stock markets worldwide are toast.
    I think we are going back to summer 09 levels once the yearly lows get broken.

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  96. Yello fellers...
    ya'll may want to bee curful wit the yeller junk...we be gittin mity clos to big lawng stop...jus a letin ya'll know...fer twoday i has a 1170 btc small...poss 1160...also big boyz need sum liqidity...

    hav a goot one...

    Dawler guy out...

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  97. Cramer, with his screaming buy on gold will give us the opportunity to add at lower prices.

    He's just one reason I threw my tv to the curb.

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  98. I like the miners longer term, but since they often act like stocks rather than just the metals, I don't want to take the risk of collapsing equity markets worldwide. Gold might get hurt also, but I want my savings in gold anyway as it's better than dollars, euros, or any other paper crap.

    Buying SGOL and DGP today.

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  99. Gary, this pullback sure doesn't look like any of the pullbacks I have seen in any prior C-waves. It looks more like an A- wave ending. Very aggravating, but there really are not any previous patterns that this is falling in line with. No good way to know where we are

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  100. Gold double top!


    run!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    selll!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  101. As subs know, my current theory is that the market is working its way into an early intermediate low. Often a long cycle will be followed by a short one.

    The last intermediate cycle ran extremely long at 30 weeks. If we are working down into a short cycle then as we've discussed time after time everything tends to get pulled down during one of those. That certainly includes miners and often gold.

    But I think we all know what the Fed's response is going to be. So the secular picture hasn't changed.

    But anyone who thinks that gold has topped for now should sell as it bounces out of the now due daily cycle low not into it.

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  102. I warned you guys about Cramer, and I was labeled a Cramer basher... which I am not. I disagree that his calls are merely 50% to 60% successful from a contrarian standpoint... more like 90%.

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  103. Only short term because he has to make his calls on TV for everyone to see and trade against. But over the long term he's going to be about 50% just like everyone else.

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  104. In case you don't know Cramer was an incredibly successful hedge fund manager with an annual return in excess of 40%.

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  105. Gary
    I have just about had it with this Cramer CLOWN. He is an ex-goldman boy who was and still is a crook, believe me I know first hand. He almost failed several times. He is a joke and his name should not be even mentioned amongst the pro's.
    LOOOOOSSSSEEEERRRR he is.

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  106. Throw your propaganda-boxes out. Revolution is coming, and already started in other places.

    They're all crooks....buy gold and plenty of lead.

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  107. Just added to my silver positions today in my IRAs. Getting ready to add some GDXJ as well but I might wait another day for them.


    nice pullback today to get in!

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  108. miners have now reject new gold highs twice never getting above their 08 highs. That is not good. This last time it did not even get above the 09 high on the last gold break out.

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  109. BoW numbers are already starting to build and if this keeps up we could have a huge number by closing.

    Like I said intermediate term sentiment has reached levels that always lead to either a muti-month rally in bull markets or a viscous counter trend rally in bear.

    Either way it's not safe to be on the short side at this point.

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  110. Gary, Do you think GDXJ and GDX will go lower from here or have we put in a bottom. Thinking of adding to my positions.

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  111. Bought some oil to lube up all of these rocks I own.

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  112. It isn't possible to have a bottom until a swing low forms.

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  113. Panic tick readings this morning also. It's usually not a great idea to sell into that.

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  114. Fellers
    In oirl beelow 69...yeller cumin to me...

    Dawler Guy out...

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  115. FROM ZERO HEDGE:
    ---------------
    In the option department for gold contracts, it is a disaster zone for our cartel members;



    In case you hadn't checked yet, the June Options Expiration is coming up next Tuesday, May 25:

    price calls
    1100 7,105
    1150 4,976
    1200 18,103 - W-O-W !
    1250 4,781
    1300 5,306
    1400 6,227
    1800 5,814 - W-o-w again: at +1800+ !

    PLUS +another+ 18,000 (or so, aggregated) from 1155 to 1195.

    That sets up a task for the Cartel to take gold down to 1150 if they want to neutralize some 41,000 potential calls for delivery. Alternatively: if they fail, perhaps the melt-up will finally start. High stakes..
    ------------------
    This could be the game plan???

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  116. Tom
    Even w/o the opex stats we know 1150 is in the cards.

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  117. Hi Gary,

    Is there any chance that this could be an A-wave top?

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  118. Ok goldbugs you've all been warned on numerous occasions by us dollar and dawler bulls but you just won't listen. Look how far the miners have been above their 200 day moving average over the last month and yet you all continue to feed on them, now you've all got two choices 1 continue digesting those draw downs 2 throw them all up as your stomach gets queezy. What's it going to be? For all those in this situation pls remember in future to not make trading decisions based on blogs or sentiment. Look to the 200 day when looking for an entry point. Bon chance to you all! Another dollar bull from 09.

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  119. Ok goldbugs you've all been warned on numerous occasions by us dollar and dawler bulls but you just won't listen. Look how far the miners have been above their 200 day moving average over the last month and yet you all continue to feed on them, now you've all got two choices 1 continue digesting those draw downs 2 throw them all up as your stomach gets queezy. What's it going to be? For all those in this situation pls remember in future to not make trading decisions based on blogs or sentiment. Look to the 200 day when looking for an entry point. Bon chance to you all! Another dollar bull from 09.

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  120. Gary,

    Not sure if u made any money in th last 1 mths, but whateve I made has been given back in 2 days. I hope we are seeing a parabolic move on the upside.

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  121. Tough day guys...Big picture, big picture.

    This is smelling a lot like 2008 however. Everything will be liquidated including our precious miners. Gold could weather the storm a little better, silver will get pummeled. Silver miners will get absolutely destroyed. If we can look back, they will come back eventually if history is our guide. Esp. if QE 2 is put into action.

    Good to be in physical and mostly cash right now. I own only 5 mining position and am glad for it right now.

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  122. 5% position in miners that should have been. They look very weak IMHO.

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  123. Todd,
    Sure it could be. Anything can happen.

    Folks if you aren't prepared to hold then you have no business buying and you certainly shouldn't be all in or even worse leveraged.

    The big picture is that the secular bull is intact. If you can ignore the wiggles you will end up with a whole lot of money by the time this is done.

    If you listen to the "dollar bulls" then you are going to get knocked out or you are going to have to trade. As we have seen that's not an easy thing to do in a very volatile sector but one you will have to attempt if you can't take the heat from the peanut gallery when drawdowns occur.

    For me personally I know how bull markets work, and I know that when this is over a buy and hold strategy will have outperformed the the traders by such a huge margin that they won't even be on the same planet.

    But that still doesn't help when they come on and twist the kinfe during drawdowns.

    So let me say it again. Even though this should have a final move higher after we get through this daily cycle low, one still has to be able to hold on if it turns out to be a really strange A-wave top.

    If you can do that and ignore all the chatter you will come out of this rich. If you can't then you need to go the physical route or take smaller positions.

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  124. ZSL sounds good to me!
    Buy more on the dips, set your loss tightly.
    Buy more on the dips, set your loss tightly.
    Rinse, Spit, Repeat.

    Gold's going down, down, down... (so are the brothers - pall and plat - and silver too!)

    pH

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