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Sunday, October 31, 2010

FINAL LEG UP?

Certain conditions were met on Friday that convinced me that gold is now entering the final leg up in this particular phase of the ongoing C-wave advance. The final spurt higher last year tacked on a very healthy 19% in a little over 1 month.


A similar performance this year would drive gold to $1578. Although this year we have the added benefit that the entire sector is trading at new all time highs. It is the only sector in the world that is in this position. This is an incredibly powerful combination that could drive the precious metal sector even further than it did last year.

At the moment there is a very low risk (-3%) entry for investors and traders to get on board this final run.

I explained the setup in depth in the weekend report.

For one day only I'm going to offer the 15 month yearly subscription rate again. That works out to a monthly price of $13.33.

15 months should be long enough to get investors not only through this final spurt higher but also back in for the final phase of the C-wave this spring. Get you out of the precious metals market in time to avoid the severe D-wave correction. And then back in to ride the next powerful A-wave advance.

We have an incredible opportunity ahead of us over the next several months and year.

If you want to take advantage of the discounted yearly subscription click here and follow the Paypal link.

262 comments:

  1. Hey, how about a special on the 6 month subscription too?? Like 6 months for $99..or six months subscription gets you 8 months??

    Just a suggestion ...then we'll be hooked anyways and sign back up :)

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  2. gary-
    id like to get this straight, you are looking for one more daily cycle and then an intermediate cycle correction coinciding with the yearly cycle dollar low. Then one more intermediate cycle running into the spring-time coinciding with the 3-year dollar low?

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  3. Gary, thanks for explaining my error on the c-wave count , where I was using the HUI, and you clarified that you were speaking of GOLD only.

    I must admit I am still a bit foggy on the idea that elections and QE2 disappointing could cause the dollar to rally next week.

    It true that it's supported at 77 and the 'line in the sand' hasnt been violated...and the coil in the s&p could roll over ,...

    but this report says 'the final leg up" has started (which I believe to be true). The P.M. stocks acted good friday , some breaking upward with nice volume.

    See ssri, Aem, Paas, Ng etc...

    The fed speaks wednesday...he may kill the dollar with words, and the final leg up continues. time will tell.

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  4. Gary, I thought your expectation was to see Gold top in the final C wave move into April next year with the dollar bottom. Has that expectation changed?

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  5. GC and SI opened up nicely on globex. New highs on SI

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  6. Jay,
    Nope that's still what I expect.

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  7. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/iran-announces-it-has-converted-15-its-100-billion-fx-reserves-gold

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  8. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  9. Futures are up. Silver appears really strong.

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  10. It's a new week, and Everything is OK and getting better all the time. The TV told me so!

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  11. Anyone see this:
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/are-asian-traders-preparing-major-short-squeeze-silver-shorts

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  12. Gold Era,

    Not much going on so far. Silver opened at new highs and pulled back. Gold is lagging.

    I dont see any reason to buy or sell my positions.

    Sitting tight for now!!

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  13. Wow--quiet here today. At the risk of stirring up a hornet's nest...Go Giants!

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  14. Everyone here, much like the market is waiting for Wednesday!

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  15. Gary, thinking about increasing my GDX position by 50% sometime this week.

    Any thoughts on best time to jump in / etc.?

    Thanks,
    Jamal

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  16. Ahh if only I had a crystal ball.

    Here are two schools of thought. You could wait till after the fed statement on Wednesday.

    Or you could buy with the HUI at or below 520 as it might act as support.

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  17. Gary: I like the idea of buying GLD here until the dust settles, for two reason. 1) the miners are more likely go down if stocks do, even if gold itself goes up. and 2) Gold is near a good stop point ($1315), so the risk is small. I bought twice as much GLD as I would have GDXJ and given the tight stop the risk/reward looks pretty good (and again, I always have lots of cash laying around so maximizing every dollar for return percentage is not an issue for me). Make sense? Thoughts?

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  18. DG,
    First off if gold is holding steady or rising the miners will resist the stock market until the final panic.

    I'm actually going to go over a trading plan in tonights report. It's a bit complex so I won't attempt to explain it here.

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  19. Thank you Gary! That would be great, since I personally want to add some silver leverage... so Im looking forward to the report.

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  20. Hi Gary,

    What do you think of this guy's comment:
    http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/qe2-quantitative-easing-inflation-quantity-theory/11/1/2010/id/30877?camp=syndication&medium=portals&from=yahoo

    He argues that money is not being created and the money supply isn't really being increased.

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  21. Apparently he hasn't seen the size of the Fed's balance sheet.

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  22. Gary said "I'm actually going to go over a trading plan in tonights report. It's a bit complex so I won't attempt to explain it here."

    Will this plan also address SPX or only gold and the miners?

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  23. Marc,

    For every negative/pessimistic article there are positive/frothy expectations.

    Here is an article from reformedbroker blog on the Financial Advisor Summit that just took place last week

    Gold:
    Not many people own gold as a percentage of total AUM (assets under management). Globally we are debasing fiat currencies. In inflation-adjusted terms gold still has much room to run to new highs. Combine all of this with no central banks planning to sell and most looking to acquire and it looks like gold could have another huge run.

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  24. Gary said: "It's a bit complex so I won't attempt to explain it here."

    Subscribers would also note that we're paying for that advice and so putting it here on the blog would no doubt upset quite a few. Just sayin'

    I realize that you need to use some info that comes from the newsletter here on the blog as a marketing device, but sometimes it can get to the point where subscribers wonder how much of their value is being diluted. It's a tough call, I realize, but this comment kind of made my antenna perk up.

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  25. Man, The newsletter goes far beyond what is discussed here. Clear as day in my mind that Gary's newsletter has been well worth the cost of 15 bucks a month considering that I have increased my PM account by appx 20k this year based on his advice. Maybe
    10k beyond what I would have done on my own....and the year isn't over yet.

    That's a portfolio that started the year with 78k in capital. So, a significant gain.

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  26. So much for market support on POMO days! Losing an entire 120 point rally is not very impressive.

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  27. Some SoS in the Q's today. The market feels nervous. I'm nervous!

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  28. Jerred,

    I was actually more interested in the guy's statement that rampant printing of money by central banks does not necessarily increase the amount of money in circulation.

    As well all know here, this is one of the central points of Gary's investment strategy.

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  29. Even karaoke is more fun than this. I can't wait for Wednesday to come and go.

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  30. SB,

    Pretty boring indeed.

    Good news is SI has held the upper composite.

    Bad news is SI gapped open but couldnt hold it (however selling has dried up and it is using a lot of energy to push lower but cant get it done)

    I am long the silver miner PAAS.

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  31. Some say PM's are a reflection of the faith, or lack or it, in their government.

    I'm not too worried about how much of the new money printed makes it into the economy, only how much money out there goes into metals.

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  32. >> "rampant printing of money by central banks does not necessarily increase the amount of money in circulation"

    If it didn't, why would the FED try to decrease unemployment by increasing printing ?

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  34. Onlooker, his suscription is dirt cheap, a buck a trading day. His reports are much more than these teases.

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  35. "Subscribers would also note that we're paying for that advice"

    To rely on payed advice in order to get a "head start" is the wrong expectation from what advisory services are. Not to mention that it speaks tons about a mentality one should rather keep to oneself than display on a public board. It's like pretending to win a race while riding on the shoulders of an athlete: every once in a while, s/he should whip the carrier ;) This is not the kind of customer one would welcome...

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  36. Well I DO think the Fed is trying to inflate their way out of the recession. Otherwise, I wouldn't be in the PMs.

    Perhaps, Reagan was right, deficits don't matter. All that matters is keeping the system going until the next boom.

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  37. The Fed's impact on the money supply isn't all through printing. By keeping rates low, they allow banks to leverage up on free money which they can then invest in risk assets. A lot of this money goes into treasuries, which are considered a safe haven (haha), but undoubtedly, chunks of money finds its way into the commodities. Just look at the correlative effect of creation of liquidity by the Fed and commodities prices. That is all the evidence I need. Someone is getting their hands ona bundle of money and putting it to work in non-fiat assets.

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  38. I'm guessing that's what is keeping this market elevated, at least until after the election. When that passes, watch out.

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  39. Marc: "Perhaps, Reagan was right, deficits don't matter. All that matters is keeping the system going until the next boom."
    The problem is we have just completed a credit bubble. The "next boom" will be a long time from now. There have been credit bubbles throughout history and once they end, the aftermath is not pretty and it take years before the excesses are cleaned out of the system. I wouldn't hold my breath for the next upturn. With all the pumping the fed has been doing the past 2 years, we ain't nowhere yet. You can keep letting air out of the balloon and then blowing it up again, but once it has popped, "All the king's horse and all the king's men..."

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  40. Anyone know the symbol to track gold and the dollar real time? Not gld and uup. I use interactive brokers.

    Thanks

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  41. Hey I'm no Reagan fan but the market was a whole lot lower when he was in office. Anyone buying and holding since the 80s is rich.

    My point is that it's easy to find fault with the system and declare that it's all going to fall apart any day now. The reality is that despite what governments do, people adapt and life goes on. The crashes come when no one is looking. Too many are looking for it now.

    BTW, I'm totally on board with Gary's strategy and doing just fine with PMs.

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  42. Gary,

    A few quick questions:

    1. In the weekend report said that the next leg of the C wave should be at least as large as this one or possibly larger as the dollar falls into its 3 year cycle low. Assuming we get to $1625 before the next intermediate decline then where would this put gold at the time you expect the C wave to complete next Spring (basically where did this C wave begin)?

    2. What kind of correlation do you expect from the HUI during this next phase of the C wave (2:1, 3:1???).

    3. Do you expect the gold/silver ratio to go even lower than 45 during the three year low for the dollar as you think will happen during this phase of the C wave?

    Thanks in advance.

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  43. Steve,
    1. $860
    2. 1.5/2:1
    3. No idea

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  44. Wow Gary! These calculations are pretty heady.

    This would give us gold at $2390 and silver at $53 (assuming a 45:1 ratio) by the end of this C wave in the Spring. This is a 77% rise in gold and that would give the HUI a rise of 115%-154% or a range of 1124-1328 of the HUI.

    And assuming the juniors such as GDXJ perform 1:25-1:5 of the HUI that would indicate a rise of 143%-231% or a range of $88-$120 from the current $36.2 of GDXJ.

    Not sure if my math is all correct but these are pretty outstanding numbers even if they are anywhere near the ballpark of what happens.

    Now back to focusing on the next few days!

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  45. Brian,

    I use the following

    GC (continuous contract for gold)
    SI (continuous contract for silver)
    DX for the dollar

    Never used IB before so you might need the $ before the contract or a /.

    You should be able to locate symbols on their website.

    I know Infinity Brokers gives you an excel sheet on symbols and dollar per tick movement.

    Hope that helps

    J

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  46. Brian,

    I found it via google and it is located on the website

    you will use the following

    ZG for gold

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  47. thanks alot Jerred. Very helpful

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  48. Gary,

    Was there tons of SoS in late 07 - mid 08 if you can remember? How predictable was the crash through SoS? Billions in negative SPYDER money flows (what's the biggest you can remember?)? I think nothing of that sort is near for a while I am just curious.

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  49. Friday, March 20th 2009 was a pretty interesting BoW day. Check that one out. :)

    Historical data appears to only go back to 07 for SoS and BoW so you can't look at 07/08 SoS through WSJ. I'm assuming it was net even larger than the March/April 2009 opposite BoW.

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  50. Gary,

    I'm strongly considering going 60% cash, 40% fixed-income, long-term, like Schwab advocates to do. You have been encouraging similar, no?

    :) :)

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  51. what's shady about schwab is their frickin difference they pocket if you buy by market order is huge compared to what etrade just to pocket from me.

    schwab has already made probably thousands off me in the last few months.

    I guess that is what you get for not setting limit orders and dealing with a 20B market cap broker that needs accelerating profits.

    only another reason to go old old old geezer turkey (getting in and out a handful of times/year).

    anyone else noticed the big discrepancies in market price vs. your fill from Schwab??? I swear its usually .3% those bastards.

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  52. Robert,
    There was a monster SoS day in Dec. 07 right before the market rolled over for good.

    I expect we will see something similar when this cyclical bull is ready to expire.

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  53. Robert,

    I use scottrade and dont see a big difference on my mkt orders/ask price ... UNLESS the stock is a low volume stock. If the buy order is a large one and shares arent available it just fills at different prices until your order is complete. Then they may show your purchase at an AVERAGE of your fill lots.

    Before you place a mkt order ( if you are in front of UR computer) check the 'bid' 'ask'.. if your order is for 3000 shares, and the 'ask' says 500 @$10.00 , once the initial 500shares @10.00 is bought by you, then you may buy 300@10.05 another 300@10.09 etc if its a low volume stock & you do mkt orders. (in my humble opinion)

    then it avgs the order at say $10.10 when all is said and done.

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  54. With all the criminality these days, I never use market orders.

    I use marketable limit orders, but not straight mkt.

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  55. Checked APMEX for bags of "junk silver" inventory, and there is nothing available.

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  56. I don't see any shortage at CA numismatic. It appears the problme is company specific to APMEX.

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  57. IAU versus GLD: I have been using the GLD etf for my gold position. (I also have silver and miners, so I'm not just straight gold).

    Does anyone have any comments regarding these two ETF's? There was a discussion earlier about GLD and the possibility of default. Would the risk for default be higher with one of these ETF's over the other? Or are they pretty much the same?

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  58. I almost always use market orders (95% of the time). Check the bid ask. The very very few times I have gotten hosed, E*Trade has checked to see if it was a bad fill. Some of those get corrected in my favor. If I want something I want it and am not going to miss it by a penny because my limit was a hair too low. I also trade liquid items and no penny junk. I scarcely ever have a problem.

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  59. I am with DG on this one. All market orders here and rarely get bad fills.

    I want to be part of the move and dont care about the fill.

    I would focus more on the commission side then the occasional bad fill.

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  60. why not just do a limit order with a price above the ask? That way you are doing a market order and smack the crap out of the next level up and never exceed your limit?

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  61. Marketable limit orders are basically market orders, except one can avoid an outside disaster type fill and the need to get it corrected.

    Perhaps I'm still thinking in terms of my younger years (things traded in fractions), when my market maker buddies used to love seeing market orders come into the station, it was like free money, especially since they have a relatively long time to fill an order. Maybe now that we trade in decimals, and even the floor is computerized, it's not so bad as there is an easy paper trail to follow.

    And yes, I have missed a few trades b/c something has moved too fast, but overall I think it has saved me lots of headaches. Besides, I can always get in or out at the new price.

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  62. now now n1tro not everyone trades off the dome/ladder

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  63. Pima,

    Been talked about here many times...

    by "Nat" - for core american eagles, constitutional money. Can you be taxed on holding money that pays no interest?

    by "Doc" - for trading use futures, trades 24 hr./day, favorable tax treatment, 60% short term/40% long term gains


    GLD - very, very, very bad! taxed as collectible - 28%, scam ETF, gap up gap down, etc.

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  64. Jesse,

    Thanks!

    Tax issues are of no concern for me because my trading account is an IRA.

    Why do you call GLD a "scam etf"?

    I realize that all etf's are subject to gap openings. The only way to avoid that is to trade futures.

    I wasn't looking for a critique of GLD or IAU per se. I realize there are risks with ETF's. What I was asking about is whether anyone had looked into BOTH of these ETF's and come to the conclusion that one was more risky (in terms of default) than the other.

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  65. Pima,

    Oh, gambling money. :) I do hold DGP and AGQ in my IRA also. Just for trading, very nimble with those holdings.

    TZ, and many other respectable analysts, have read the prospectus of GLD. I take their word that there is serious "counterparty risk" with these instruments. Derivates, swaps, all kinds of wall street shenanigans that I don't understand. Not with my money, except that nimble gambling money.

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  66. gary,
    do you think GDX might have to come down to hit $50 (50 dma)before next leg up?

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  67. If gold drops from here we now have a sorta funky H&S top with the shoulder around 1330 and projecting down to 1265 or so on the break.

    Just saying.

    I'm taking the approach of waiting till after tomorrow's fed before any action vs holding long with a 1315 stop or the other alternatives being discussed.

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  68. Just let your stops do their job. Trying to second guess the market is a waste of time. We have a very clear line in the sand and a trading plan (last night's report) if one wants to try and lock in some profits.

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  69. The H&S is "funky" cause the bounce up into the right shoulder was a congestion triangle instead of a normal bounce.

    Still...everything else looks legit and I'm naggingly feeling as though we didn't hit bottom on this gold pullback yet (not as sure about silver).

    Maybe I'm wrong.

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  70. TZ,
    Constantly second guessing your plan is probably a waste of time and will just prevent you from entering again.

    Your original plan was to enter if $1350 was broken. Just follow your plan and then place your stops where they belong. If they get hit and you take a small loss, so what?

    The bull has a long way to go. You will recover all those losses many times over.

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  71. Gary, what sort of orders do you typically use?

    I'd guess you use market, correct?

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  72. I know. The H&S is just discussion.

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  73. SB: yeah when I was in the business (it's been a long time!) they could really hose you. But now my orders are executed literally within 2 seconds at worst, it's decimalized, I can see the bid and ask, and so I never get hosed. I'd spend a helluva a lot more in commissions than I'd save by placing limits.

    This Fed announcement has me frozen, as it does everyone else I'm sure. I bet we see high volatility tomorrow, both up and down. There's a lot of money waiting to react that has been frozen the past few days. Looking forward to Thursday!

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  74. DG, what do you mean by saying you'd spend more on commissions than you would by placing limit orders? Does your broker charge a higher commission on a limit order than a market order?

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  75. He would get partial fills and then have to replace the order multiple times.

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  76. Is the S&P sneaking out of the coil to the upside, possibly foretelling a more extended move lower?

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  77. Because of where we are in the dollar cycle I suspect a break upside will not follow the usual coil pattern. It will likely be followed by a lot more strength as the dollar collapses into the yearly cycle low.

    The dollar is the controlling factor right now and what Ben is going to do to it.

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  78. I think all the big events have already been priced into the equities market. No surprises. We continue to move higher to 1230's (by next week) and then a mild correction to 1177. By next January we will be at 1250 to 1300.

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  79. Pima: Yes. I pay $5 for mkt orders and $10 for limit orders, and, as Gary said, you can wind up with multiple orders as you chase the darn thing higher. I do a lot of trading, so the $5 difference is a couple of thousand $ a year. No way I lose anywhere near that in getting hosed on executions.

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  80. DG, I have $3 comm on TOS, might be worth looking into. But Tradestation offers even lower commissions, so if you're going to go to the trouble of switching platforms, I would check them out also.

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  81. Not liking the down move on the DX and gold is flat.

    Thoughts from others??

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  82. Quit worrying about meaningless wiggles and just follow your plan. :)

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  83. Gary, your reply to S B about moving upward out of the coil was helpful, because I (and others most likely) were thinking that the initial thrust up and out would last 3 days ( a false move)and a more prlonged journey south.

    However the dollar cycle timing didnt seem to fall into place with that (yrly cycle low coming).

    But isnt the markets cycle VERY EXTENDED at this point , or do you concider the coil in the SPX as a possible low?

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  84. The threat of QE2 could stretch the stock cycle even longer. IMO the dollar cycle takes precedence.

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  85. Thanks, thats right, you had already said that in your report (when you mentioned that the dollar was somewhat early in its intermediate cycle and how a failure could affect the mkts). I got stuck on the 'false break' of a coil theory.

    The SPX has closed in such a tight range for what?..9 days? The mkts are so uncertain that I wonder if bullishness is weak and a rally at days end will push fwd. possible short squeeze if Oct 25th highs are taken out, and dollar drops.

    thx again

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  86. Thanks, Pima. I'll look into TOS.

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  87. DG, I believe TOS's posted rates are $5. But I asked for a better rate because I was doing a fair amount of trading and $3 is what they came up with.

    So if you talk to them, ask them what's the best they can do, and tell them how much trading you do. Maybe they would match tradestation's rates?

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  88. TOS will match lower priced commissions. You just have to ask for it and explain to them how much trading you do.

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  89. Pima says"Tax issues are of no concern for me because my trading account is an IRA."

    Pima..you can hold physical gold, coins/bars in an IRA also. Just in case you didn't know. Personally i wouldn't hold coins in an IRA but physical Gold bars would be fine in IRA as bars are taxed as collectible if not. Maple Leafs and Krugs also taxed as collectibles. Presently, Eagles and Austrian/Euro gold/silver coins not reportable.

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  90. Gary are you going to vote ? Sharon Angle needs your vote :)

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  91. Right on, Gary. Dingy Harry needs to be put out to pasture in the worst way!

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  92. Gary, I know you like to climb onto the strongest secular bull and go old turkey, so I'm curious to know if you've heard that emerging markets have promise (after we're done with silver, of course!). Not familiar with Barton Biggs.

    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/global-markets/Another-bubble-beginning-in-emerging-market-shares/articleshow/6861989.cms

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  93. As long as the world continues to fight the secular bear with ever larger amounts of paper there will only be one secular bull market.

    Emerging markets can do OK in the short run but when the US sinks back into the next recession/depression because inflation got out of control it's going to take down the rest of the world right along with it.

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  94. Boy, it's appropriate to vote (and I did) but I really don't think it matters much. You just get to pick which set of self-serving people you want in there and which palms they grease to stay in power. As long as the system lets politicians get power and money for themselves by selling out to the highest bidder, we're merely picking which bidders gets access to the levers of government. Most of our problems would be solvable if solving them were actually the priority. Geez, we're still subsidizing tobacco, for crying out loud! Most legislation makes little sense and is designed to pander to whatever voting group needs pandering, or whatever lobby is going to pony up the cash. But for the money-driven system to change the people benefitting from it would need to change it. Lots of luck with that. Sigh.

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  95. Barton Biggs is a very good analyst and has been for many years. No one is always right (Not even Gary!) but Biggs has been through it all for decades and is worth at least taking into account.

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  96. Not to mention that the way campaigns are run nowdays one has no idea what a candidate stands for. All we have is a pretty good idea of all the bad things their opponent did or how they can spin it that they did.

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  97. DG,

    The Dems and the GOP are like VH-1 and MTV: apparent rivals who are in fact owned by the same company.

    : /

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  99. Of course, if we boot the bums out and get back to sanity, I might have to quit printing so much paper money! :)

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  100. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  101. Yep, doesn't matter which party we vote for, we're sending more troops to the Middle East and picking some new fights.

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  102. I'm just curious since this seems to be an educated crew, what do you all think about the ramifications of this election for the health of our country? Do you believe that a shift in the leadership of the congress will make a difference for the direction of the country, and if so, how?

    I personally think the liberal vs conservative debate masks a depper issue which is that both sides only know how to spend. Our populace has become accustomed to a quality of life that was the result of living beyond our means. That is the framework by which AMerica measures "normal" I don't think either of the two main parties has the fortitude to make policy that really cleanses, solves, or heals our economic and political issues. I see a lot of excitement about dems getting voted out, and my guess is that in 2 to 4 to 6 years there will be another reversal as the populace wants the good life, but the only way to the good life is through pain via paradigm shifts that I believe are bound to come that force frugality, and that will be blamed on whomever is in power.

    Don't get me wrong, although I voted for Obama, I am deeply disappointed with his true agenda. I think he and his administration threw away a real shot at helping Americans understand the situation we are in and how to manage it. I blieve he lied. I believe he and the current congress earned their demise.

    But, what politician other than Ron Paul is walking the talk? Republican/Democrat...both look to me like spoiled siblings who are having their toys taken away and are slinging sand across the box at each other.

    Anyway, I'm going to vote as a proactive action, but other than a couple local measures and offices, I have little hope that we will see healthy change. I also fear the ramifications of increased hawkishness that will likely come over the next four years or so in that just like the misguided attempts to "fix" the financial sytem, our arms are raised at ineffective and way too expensive targets.

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  103. Fubsy,

    I tend to think history needs to pass through stages. Waypoints, if you will.

    Joe Sixpack is always behind the times...that's what makes him Joe Sixpack. That's why Joe didn't buy tech stocks until 1999, and in less than 12 months he was wiped out. He didn't get in in 1994-96 like he should have. Because Joe Sixpack is distracted.

    It takes a LOOONNG time for people who don't pay attention to catch on to what's really happening.

    Right now Joe just knows he's angry. He has this unsettling feeling that something is very, very wrong (and he's right) but he can't put his finger on it yet. That is, he doesn't know the system has rotted down to its core, like a grand old mansion whose walls have been chewed up by termites.

    But Joe doesn't know that yet. He thinks the mansion (the system) can be saved if we hire a new housekeeping crew. As if elections can solve our problems! Anyway, this is why the GOP will do so well today.

    I'm looking forward to the next stage of our ride through history. You know, the stage where it dawns on Joe that electing new "housekeepers" to mind our metaphorical mansion won't change a darned thing.

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  104. Sorry guys, I deleted the initial comment to edit some typos and clarify my position.

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  106. You guys discussing BROKERS:

    interactivebrokers.com

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  107. Fubsy,

    This election, in the grand scheme of things, won't make a damn bit of difference, because a significant portion of Americans, and not just the poor, but the middle-class and affluent also, have come to expect that the purpose of the government is to take stuff that belongs to other people and give it to them. So of course boobus Americanus will only tolerate the goring of their own ox for a short period of time. I gave up on democracy when the Republicans in congress passed the Medicare Drug Act and Bush I signed it. That was a WTF moment for me. It was clear at that time the two parties were the same crap with different candy coatings. Although it should have been obvious sooner.

    For generations Americans have believed the lie that everybody can live at the expense of everybody else, and this has virtually guaranteed that the only outcome possible will be a collective economic suicide as fewer and fewer productive members of society are forced to support more and more parasites, until the parasites finally start turning their guns on each other in a desperate attempt save their own skins. This is not surprising, given that we have a nation of economic illiterates who would rather watch Snooki romp around on the Shore than learn what makes an economy work.

    I won't be going to the polls today, or ever. It's a waste of time, besides, choosing the lesser of two evils is still choosing evil. I withhold my consent of the state.

    George Carlin said it best: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xIraCchPDhk

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  108. Fubsy--
    I agree mostly with your viewpoint-- (Unfortunately for our country)

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  109. Tudor-
    Agreed--
    I am tiring of continuously voting for the lesser of two evils.
    But --(so far) I continue to do it!!

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  110. Tudor, good words.

    I voted Libertarian today in VA's 10th district.

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  111. I just don't agree that it's because people are illiterate. Would YOU vote for against increase in income for yourself? If a union (just as an example) has an opportunity to vote for a guy who promises to increase benefits for union members, they will. It is human nature to vote for what benefits you. Illiteracy has nothing to do with it. You think the banking crooks were illiterate? They placed risky bet after risky bet, knowing darn well that if the bet failed their company would go broke. They made hundreds of millions a year doing that until, well, they lost...but they didn't lose; their shareholders, employees, and the U.S. did. They're still all rich. and they were not illiterate. As long as people vote for their own selfish best interest at the expense of others we are going to have a problem. Maybe if a big enough disaster happens people will wake up. WW II had people willing to actually sacrifice for the greater good. But until then it's get what you can until we are bled dry. Death by a trillion mosquito bites. San Jose, CA is going broke and it's disgusting to watch the police and firefighters fight to keep their incredibly bloated pensions. They actually just voted to fire 10% of the PD rather than taking a cut in their retirement benefits. "I want mine---let's throw our colleagues under the bus!" God help us all.

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  113. Yes --I still believe many people are economically illiterate! Not illiterate per se, but economically illiterate... Yes!

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  114. Well, i voted. It was an exercise in futility from my perspective. Its amazing that we don't have better options to choose from. I guess really talented leaders are smart enough to work in the private sector where they can actually have an impact on outcomes. Sent from my mobile. Hope it doesn't0look too wanky.

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  115. Well said, DG. I think you nailed it.

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  116. DG, you've described the inherent flaw in democracy. Most people vote for whoever will give them the most benefits. Now. The candidates cater to the voters, give them what they want now, the future be damned.

    No one, voters and candidates alike, is taking the long view. No one is thinking about what is best for the country as a whole.

    We need enlightened rulers, leaders who will do what is best for the country for the long haul. But even if those potential leaders are out there somewhere, they will not get the vote. That is why I fear that our democracy (and maybe all democracies) is doomed to fail.

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  117. The republic died a long time ago. We have a Corporate Fascist state with a false left/right dichotomy. They keep our eyes off the true ball, which is a debt based monetary system which creates a perpetual debt vortex-from the left fueled by social spending, from the right fueled by the military industrial complex. See Damen Vrabel's Youtube series on this important issue.

    By the way, what time does the Not Federal No Reserves make their announcement regarding QE Infinity? 2:15 EST?

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  118. ahh...how 'bout those markets...waiting on the fed for real action most likely.

    one mkt altering event down (voting) ...yet many more to go.

    did anyone see TGB in afterhours??

    wow!

    Good day

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  119. Hi Gary,


    Precious metals and crude are breaking their recent highs/ resistances well ahead of the FOMC. Is it possible smart has already has whiff of FOMC.

    V

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  120. V,
    That's what I suggested in last night's report.

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  121. Andrew Jackson
    Yes --- 2:15 EST

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  122. Andrew Jackson's epitaph:

    "I killed the Bank"!

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  123. looks like another boring day until the fed speaks.

    Headed out for some BBQ (Fox Bros)

    See you guys at 2:15

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  124. Allright??
    What caused that 10 minute blip?
    Anyone?

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  125. Someone dumped 6000 contracts.

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  126. boring? gold has moved $20 down since this morning!

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  127. We just took out the first level of stops of people who were expecting imminent moves higher in gold and silver.

    It occurrs to me that the LEAST expected result today is for gold and silver to go LOWER.

    Below $24 in silver is a break of the entire uptrend since about $18.

    Below about $1328 in gold is a H&S breakdown leading to 1280 or so.

    Not saying it will happen, but obviously things moving UP will take care of themselves. So let's evaluate and consider the opposite.

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  128. @ Mr. Mom: Could you please let me know where are you looking in order to tell in real time and with such precision the dynamics of the number of contracts? If it is not a free web based source, perhaps someone could indicate an equivalent source of data. Thanks.

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  129. Gary must have lots of subscribers that just got his e-mail update!

    Looks like it's going to get volatile ahead of Benny and the Inkjets.

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  131. Gary

    still a chance of negating the swing high if gold moves above 1366.

    V

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  132. I don't have any positions beyond core from a day or two ago. I have been worrying about this scenario.

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  133. CONTUL,

    Any gold and silver futures feed.
    You can use GLD and SLV volume as a rough approximation (delayed will work, but you obviously won't know till later).

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  134. Wow...we are at $24 now only minutes after i posted above. and $1328 in gold!!

    whoosh

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  135. If the FED comes out blazing boy will there be some serious fireworks covering these positions.

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  136. All they gotta do now, in my opinion, is tap gold and silver below these two points and we have intermediate correction.

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  137. POLY,

    The fed is comprised of some of the smartest people in the world. I don't think they will make that mistake.

    They are not up against a wall here. This isnt 2008. They can announce a small program and grow it large in the future quietly, etc. They can announce they want to wait a month or two to see if "the republicans will propose corretive measures to the finances of the US". Etc.

    YES (before gary says it) we are still going to inflate to the moon and the bull is in place. But they can raise hell for a few weeks if they want.

    Just my thoughts. STICK TO PLAN. DON'T PANIC.

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  138. That was fast--
    I think too fast!
    Maybe a whipsaw back up on Fed announcement??

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  139. http://www.screencast.com/users/Mr.Mom/folders/Jing/media/a25b6063-cff7-469e-be18-a35d71424c1e

    Gold contracts are not very liquid. One large sell order and they go down...

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  140. Conversely the fed could announce something big and this is a hit (as I postulated weeks ago) to make sure that the news tonight isn't "...and gold makes new highs on QE2".

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  141. gary , UUP looks like going to go up short term. what that will do to $gold & gdx or eem & spx?

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  142. 9200,
    Don't assume anything just follow the plan.

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  143. V,
    We certainly could depnding on what Ben says this afternoon.

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  144. Mr.Mom, what program/site is that from?

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  145. TZ,

    Who said anything about it being a mistake. The FED places enormous emphasis on asset prices and has repeatedly shown it's not afraid to allow or foster an environment where asset prices appreciate. That's basically the point here!

    The key is not the actual $$$ number of purchases, but the wording on its ability and flexibility to expand their balance sheet under this announcement.

    As for panic, I doubt even a $100 pullback is a huge deal considering where we have come from.

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  146. TZ,

    Saying the Fed is comprised of some of the smartest people in the world is ridiculous.

    If so, then at a minimum they're liars as they didn't see anything wrong with real estate in 2007 even though the whole rest of the world did.

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  147. POLY,

    Despite Gary's comments to the contrary, the people who run the fiat currency system do NOT want the value of gold and silver to rise AT ALL. If you believe they do, then you don't understand the game. It is a MISTAKE to not keep gold and silver as low as they can and to keep focus off of them.

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  148. Gary,

    this is panic selling in PM, possible bad news in QE2.. why are equities not selling off.

    V

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  149. The discrepancy in the snp and gold, is a very telling sign...QEII could easily be huge, thus sending the snp into orbit, while showing a modest gain on the PMs...
    Speculating...its all psychology

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  150. I sold everything, will wait and see what happens later...Still have my old turkey core but wanted to book trading profits where they were there to be had. I've got a bad feeling about today.

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  151. Arron,
    No need to speculate. As long as gold holds above $1315 we still have an intact daily cycle. If it trades below then we may have an intermediate degree correction in process. Just follow the plan.

    If you wanted to lock in profits you should have had a trigger to sell as soon as the swing was formed.

    If you just want to protect against getting caught in an intermediate cycle correction then sell down to a core if $1315 is violated.

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  153. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  154. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  155. You made my point, TZ. Fed is "connected" like the jewish mafia, but by no means does owning the printing press and lying everyday imply intelligence.

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  156. @ Mr. Mom: Thanks for the pic. So it's the Ameritrade platform. For those interested, Barcharts.com, which is accurate but delayed by 10 min... Anybody with Level 2 future quotes would let us into the detailed market internals of this particular move? (For those interested, level 2 quotes for GLD, GDX, GDXJ here www.level2stockquotes.com).
    @TZ (7006): Thanks for intervening.

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  157. Shalom,

    None of my posts or comments have anything to do with a particular segment or class of society if that is what you are implying. The Fed is a business with a goal like any other. The goal just happens to be taking money from people.

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  158. I agree with that, but I highly doubt they're any smarter than you.

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  159. I think this little shakeout is a pretty good setup for an afternoon rally. Stay tuned.

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  160. Lower horizontal holding for now ~1335.5ish
    http://www.screencast.com/users/Mr.Mom/folders/Jing/media/d42853b4-f165-4e19-92d8-7d11e08e20a8

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  161. Actually, most businesses have the same goal - to take your money, but they usually give you something BACK in exchange which you desire. A coffee, a burger, some electricity.

    The Fed's goal is to take your money and NOT have you realize it is happening or how. (If you do realize, then they don't want you to be able to do much about it.)

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  162. Yep, work on taking your guns while they rob the value of your savings. The key is for them to do it slowly enough that people don't rise up!

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  163. "Jewish Mafia?" Are you kidding? I always figured that your insistence on using "Shalom" was a way of emphasizing that Bernanke was Jewish. Now you have outed yourself. Why is it that so many gold traders are bigots rednecks, or Fundamentalists? Sigh. It's a shame, SB, as I have enjoyed dialoguing with you in the past, and you do seem intelligent and insightful, but being racist is not a great quality to add to that mix. Just another great quality to add to the mix of why we are in such dire straits right now (along with greed and power-lust).

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  164. S,

    You are getting a bit radical on me with your last few posts. I'm not talking about guns or people rising up either.

    This ia a business/finance discussion and the system is pretty much working the same way it has throughout history. The dollar isn't the first go-around for this game.

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  166. hey...we need some good news here, maybe something a LITTLE positive...so

    Have you seen GSS today dispite the sell off? How about AMOK ( or amok.ob) GBG??

    what I do before I panic is take a stock like PAL , or paas, ssri, exk...since AUGUST they have hardly ever , if ever broken their 20 sma in this whole run!! IF one does, it doesnt break below the 34 SMA...none touch their 50 sma...so I'm not worried until some of these break ( and close really ) below their 20sma.

    and when you think of it, thats a pretty strong stock not going below its 20sma in months :)

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  167. LOL! How does being jewish make one a racist?

    Shalom's the name, don't wear it out. :)

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  168. You seem to find his Jewishness significant, SB. Care to elaborate?

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  169. Rosabarba,
    Actually, I don't give a crap, but seems like everybody else here is pretty sensitive about it, including yourself.

    It's not like people don't know. Perhaps you should ask his mother why she gave him such a ridiculous name, then ask yourself what you're trying to hide.

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  170. Btw, I got the idea from Zero Hedge, one of the most read blogs around, in case you guys have never visited it.

    Good stuff there, highly recommended.

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  171. Just trying to be clear, SB, your denials notwithstanding.

    If Jew-baiting is to be your thing, you might as well be up-front about it. I mean, if all Jews aren't bankers, and all bankers aren't Jews, and banking isn't intrinsically evil, these little insistences and implications on your part seem to belong to a well-worn tradition. Hardly seem relevant to what Gary is trying to accomplish here.

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  172. Guys, antisemitism isnt cool.
    Just drop it and stay on topic please.

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  173. What is the "Jewish mafia" you refer to? Is Bernanke a member? Is it some secret cabal that meets in back rooms when they are not eating Christian babies? Good god, man. Welcome back to the Stone Age. Gary has said human nature never changes which is why cycles work. Well, I guess distrust and suspicion of other races hasn't changed either. Unfortunately. Might as well blame everything you don't like in the world on some group of "other" people who are plotting to make you miserable. Sure has worked well throughout history.

    My apologies to the other bloggers, but having grown up with a very strong ant-bigot attitude, it's hard for me to let this kind of crap pass by unchallenged. Too many people not speaking up is truly part of the problem. Enough. I'm done (I hope).

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  174. How about you don't take things personal as I'm not in any way referring to you or even a whole swath of the population.

    Really, who cares? Facts are facts.

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  175. bull market is over guys. It is now time to go stuffed turkey and put the cash under the mattress for a while

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  176. " but having grown up with a very strong ant-bigot attitude, it's hard for me to let this kind of crap pass by "- DG

    LOL! Sure, DG. I suppose you think it's not bigoted to blow up people all over the Middle East because they're Muslim?

    There are plenty of sites to have these discussions, so I suggest we get back to trading if you feel the same?

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  177. added more at 24 .10..hopefully that was just a quick whipsaw..

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  178. The fact that some people are idiots and bombing Muslims does not take you off the hook. And what is the "fact" about a jewish mafia? Evidence, please. Why not select a group of people born on Tuesdays? You obviously think that race is an important factor here.

    And I like how you get in a last dig and then say "Now, back to gold investing..." Nice try.

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  179. If you just drop it I will. You've outed yourself and discussions with such people are usually a waste of time.

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  180. You're clearly not too bright, DG, now buzz off.

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  181. Very presumptuous of you, SB, or are you moderating the board in Gary's stead today?

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  182. Sounds like you and DG are doing the moderating. Free speech for all is what I'd say.

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  183. Great. Now we're at the "Your mother wears combat boots" phase. And you say I"M not too bright! I'll drop it if you will. Why not give the other bloggers a break and drop it?

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  184. I have, why must you (or Rosie) get the last word?

    And suggesting a large number of gold traders are "rednecks" doesn't help with you "anti-bigot" image if you know what I mean?

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  185. i went to eat some BBQ and all hell has broken loose on SMT!!!!

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  186. SB,

    I don't know Jewish traditions, so can't comment on the name Shalom as being ridiculous or not.

    But other cultures name their kids names that you probably would think are ridiculous.

    "Jesus" is a common name in Mexico and Latin America.

    Various names of God are commonly used as names in India, like Lakshmi, Vishnu, Krishna, Shiva, etc.

    Just because you're not familiar with a particular culture does not make their traditions ridiculous.

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  187. Geesh enough already, you guys are making me dizzy.

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  188. LOL! I agree that Jesus is a ridiculous name for a child.

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  189. Did anybody scoop up any TGB today?

    It's on my list to watch, but I typically don't buy something after a blowup like today's.

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  190. Sorry you feel ganged-up on, old boy. I hope you won't ascribe it to a nefarious conspiracy. And by all means, have the last word ... I think you've established all there is to establish.

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