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Wednesday, November 3, 2010


I have a lot to say about today's action but I think I will keep it exclusive to the subscriber newsletter. So I will just use this as a comment cleaner.


  1. Carryover comment from previous thread.

    Silver (based on overnight trading prices) made gary's swing low (i.e. it is now trading at a new high) at about 9:40pm.


    (chart delayed 30min)

    Note also the reverse H&S type pattern with shoulderline at about $24.90. It is messed up by the fed announcement shaking it around, but otherwise looks good and projects to about $26.

    Long and hoping it works out.

  2. Thanks for the cleaner. I see silver just broke into new highs. Hopefully, gold will follow through tomorrow as well.

  3. today was close to a disaster for me. The action was a complete BS. I got a margin call on my leverage account right on that last whipsaw and very close call on my second account. Lets hope things will work smoother from here on.

  4. Raz,
    If you got a margin call on that meager move then you are too heavily leveraged. You need to back off.

    How many times have I said that being too leveraged is one of the few ways to lose money in a bull market?

  5. Razvan,

    Keep your head in the game and I hope it smooths out for you as well. Been a little rough lately for everybody.

    Green screens to you tomorrow.

  6. i know it was a stupid thing to do but when things are going well for a long time like they were since july it gave me the wrong type of confidence. Sometimes it is good to get a spanking once in a while !

  7. Razvan,

    Here is a suggestion. Go back and write down exactly what you were doing during the good times. Then compare that to what you are doing now. Notice the differences and make the changes. (i.e. size of positions, where the market is, volatility...)

  8. TZ, Yesterday it was a H&S headed lower. Much lower. Today it is inverted H&S headed much higher. TZ you are making me DizZee.......

  9. IVN did well today. NG has been on a righteous tear. SIL and GDXJ recovered ALL of their loss and managed to close in the green. This is going to be a tidal wave.

  10. Raz, I went completely broke as a youth and lost $600,000 in six months by playing too heavy. Don;t do that (it was not fun.) Listen to Gary! Do NOT go crazy on leverage. You will have lots of time to build up your assets if you can show a little patience and discipline. I'm glad you didn't get sold out down there! If you ever want to go crazy again, post first about the thought and we'll all jump on you!

  11. BRIAN,

    Yeah...well..at least we aren't getting the dredded BLACK SWAN formation from 2008



    (bit of history, this made the rounds during early 2008 as things started falling apart; somebody actually dreamed this up and it was a heck of a chuckle at the time; real chart)

  12. Razvan...bummer.

    gary is ( of course) correct. I was taught that the BULL doesnt run straight ahead...He BUCKS and BUCKS and tries to throw even the bullish riders off, THEN HE RUNS AWAY.

    Margin calls are like the rider being thrown off right out of the gate. Gold is up $8 now and Silver new highs...tomorrow looks better...for a RUN! I second that 'green screen to you"

  13. TZ, Now that is funny. I guess if it walks like Black Swan, and talks like a Black Swan,,,,,,,,, We must have a Black Swan event.

    PS. Don't show this to Shalom. He will blame it on the Swans!

  14. Gary,

    So, so much for your SoS SPYDERs?

    Or are we too impatient?

  15. Robert,
    I suspect the last bought of SoS was just money getting out of the way of the Fed statement.

  16. So the dollar broke below 76.14, and silver broke above 25 and is holding. Gold has not broken above the high of yesterday, but it is coming close. I am guessing everyone is buying back in at the open on Thursday?

  17. Robert/Gary, 150 mill SOS isn't small but it's also no bell ringer either. If you see 400+, I'd get outta dodge, would you agree Mr. Savage?

  18. Not neccessarily. The SoS is a warning sign not a perfect timing tool.

    At this point I would also be watching the dollar to time exits. I think there's little hope the dollar decline will put in the yearly cycle low before it tags the `08 low at 71.

    If we get a SoS signal and then the dollar tags 71 that's when I would exit.

  19. The dollar is kaput!

    Good call G-Train, on getting loaded up again, even after a huge run. It's been a great year! :)

  20. Houston, T minus 10, 9, 8....

    Future much higher, silver up 2% overnight and gold right behind.

    Could be a fun day.

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  22. Dollar break below 76.14
    Gold break above 1364 this morning.

    do it confirm gold is ready for new highs?!

  23. Ben Bernanke needs to know his limitations for our economy.

    Good morning all, here's a chuckle for you this fine morning.

  24. GE,
    All we needed was for the dollar to break down, which it has.

    The next level of support is at 74, then 71. Gold has a long way to go yet.

  25. I'm not long any stocks except miners, but look at how the S&P is cruising right through that 200 weekly MA.

  26. From Jim Sinclair:

    "“I don’t think you can really control it. I think that gold will run but as of today, whenever the boss speaks, we’ll call him the financial boss, there is always intervention to make the boss look good. It’s never failed, it will always be so, and it is so today.”

    When asked about the US dollar Sinclair responded, “72 right now is the price objective, then I think some modest strength, and then into the sixties.”

    Jim Sinclair also mentioned the dollar index, “could eventually fall to 56.”

    56, here we come!

  27. Yes and this is only the 9th day of the daily cycle. We probably have another 2 weeks of generally rising price until the next short term top.

    My best guess is the dollar will bounce weakly off the 74 pivot.

  28. Hi Gary,

    All precious metals gap up.. Can we buy Silver here or little dip possible till $25.


  29. I would add at least half to protect against it running away. And then if we get a little pullback after the open add the rest.

  30. Gary

    you implemented a strategy to take profits yesterday. Since everything is gapping up today, how would you get back in your positions?

    Eg. do you buy at the open at gapped up prices?

  31. I warned repeatedly to only take partial profits so as to protect agaisnt this very thing. My suggestion is to add at least half at the open and then add more if it pulls back during the first hour.

  32. It's a beautiful day!

    Since I didn't take off positions ahead of the Fed giveaway, I'm not going to be adding anything this morning. Sitting tight for now.

  33. I'm glad I didn't hedge my longs by shorting the S&P. Thanks to Gary for that one.

  34. WOW, impressive green numbers on the miners, especially some of the small speculative call options :)

    Glad I stayed at 130% (thanks Gary) with stops only below $1,315. Either way getting back in now is not the end of the world. Trying to chase down AGQ can get extremely frustrating and costly.

  35. Hi Gary,

    Do we have a new stop prices for GLD and SIL?

    Thank you very much.

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