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Wednesday, January 26, 2011

The "PLAN"

I've posted a trading "plan" for the precious metals sector in tonight's report for subscribers.

374 comments:

  1. Read the report again. I'm not changing my opinion I'm protecting against both scenarios.

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  2. I agree with John V.

    Seems to me to be a little early to be saying that the weekly cycle low is in on gold. And, yes, you seem to be saying that by going fully long and with margin!

    We've had a one-day bounce off $1320. $1315, which was a previous daily cycle low, hasn't even been tested.

    You just wrote this today, Gary:
    [So far this correction is still very mild. Gold should at least dip down to $1290-$1300 if it's just going to be a "normal" correction.]

    Clearly you've changed your opinion. The question is, why? Is it the high Blees rating? Or something else?

    Also, you were saying before that you wouldn't want to get fully long until in miners until stocks completed their weekly cycle low. Well, stocks haven't even begun heading into their weekly cycle low yet.

    I'm not complaining. Just wondering why the change in opinion. What is driving it, exactly?

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  3. Read the report again. I'm not changing my opinion I'm protecting against both scenarios.

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  4. I thought the whole purpose of the "core" is to protect against both scenarios. So, why go 130% long when there are pretty good reasons to think the weekly cycle low isn't in.

    Yes, you have a stop in, but if gold drops below $1320, you will take a loss of at least 5% from here on each of GDXJ/SIL/SLW.

    So, again, I ask: what is driving you to take this risk? The Blees rating?

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  5. So what? It will easily be recovered (probably in one day) by getting in at the next bottom.

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  6. Things are getting interesting.

    I'm thinking tomorrow A.M. I'll re-enter a full position just with good old PSLV. If PMs pick up momentum to the upside I will flip over to AGQ and SIL.

    I can't shake the feeling that this is merely the daily cycle low and the intermediate is yet to come...but I'm gonna be dispassionate and re-enter tomorrow with you. Gary, you hit the nail on the head last year with your description of the gold bull. It ends up making loyal riders money but man oh man, it somehow drives you up the wall along the way.

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  7. Well for those of us who have a core of zero ... this plan works. I'll just go in for 35% for now and wait for confirmation.

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  8. Hey Shalom, your remarks today were ho-hum. Why don't you get off your butt and announce QE3 already. Help a brotha out. ; )

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  9. Boy it's never easy is it? Mixed signals at this juncture, but I'm sure in hindsight it will be obvious (whichever way it ends up).

    The reaction off of 500 and the 200DMA by the $HUI sure makes it look good here. Tough call

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  10. I think this year this time the mining sector is showing more strength than last year.

    Why?

    Because the HUI has broken above resistance 500 level and now has retested successfully. Last year this this was not the case.

    I also think the mining sector (along with commodities) are leading the charge and you'll see money being rotated from the general market, bonds and the dollar into the mining sector.

    When the general market does correct I would expect the mining sector to go "higher" not lower with the market. Because investors will be buying PM and metals not the dollar. (This is the opposite of what happened last year)

    So we'll see. Interesting times indeed!

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  11. Hi Gary,

    When will we know that this swing low was the intermediate low?

    Thank you

    James R.

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  12. Alas, our marching orders. I was going to take up meditation or something to help practice patience. Let's hope this isn't yet another head fake.

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  13. James, Look for a weekly swing low.....

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  14. The decision to 130% is completely against weeks of thoughts and strategies that you have presented, you must or should be able to acklowedge that much.

    Now you have clearly presented the trade, no argument there.

    But you don't want to miss the start of a big run by buying now, while in exchange you want to risk another 5-10% drawdown (depending how high it goes before dropping and the leverage) if your weeks of analysis/comments are correct.

    I don't know Gary, you're the captain here :).

    But let me ask you, do you feel very scared about buying tomorrow?

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  15. Poly,

    FWIW I feel very scared about buying tomorrow and I usually don't feel scared. Of course it only really matters what Gary feels at this point.

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  16. Not sure about Gary....I am really scared about buying tomm

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  17. Thank you Brian and Gary will do.


    James R

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  18. Poly,
    I look at it this way. Even if I'm wrong and the stop is hit. I will lose maybe 4-5% at most. That will easily be recovered by just entering at the next daily cycle low which would also be the final intermediate low.

    So I don't really care if I get stopped out it just means I will get an even better entry and make even more money.

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  19. Gary has admitted in the past he tends to be early...

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  20. I hear your logic, I don't feel comfortable, but I too am riding your show. :)

    You're incorrect on the drawdown though, AGQ and the others with 130% can or will easily burn through 10% before the stops hit. Just saying.

    BTW, is your coming intermiadate decline for equities still as previously stated?

    Cheers.

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  21. Being early is one thing. Getting whipsawed twice in one month stings a little! I'll still be going in. If we are stopped out, I'll be able to use the losses to help offset some of our future capital gains.

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  22. I think most people are worried about a drawdown. The stop limits the drawdown and if it is hit it just means one will make even more money.

    Too many people are looking at this with trader eyes and worrying about hitting the stop.

    Hitting the stop would be a wonderful thing not a bad thing.

    BTW I think the odds are a little better than 50% that we got the intermediate low yesterday.

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  23. Poly,

    Look at it this way: this fear about buying PMs tomorrow could be an omen that buying now is the right thing. If you're afraid at this point, surely you aren't alone. Just sayin..

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  24. i think im gonna wait anothr week for a market correction there is plenty of time to make money in a c wave

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  25. As for the stock market, sentiment may be over the top, but everything else is about as perfect as it gets for stock appreciation.

    I'm going to hold my modest long position until I get stopped or until the market gets overbought or seasonal factors turn negative.

    I've about abandoned my original plan to buy a put lottery ticket. The odds on the downside don't look good to me.

    If I had to play, I'd chose the downside, but I don't and I won't.

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  26. Anyone know where I can find the "blees rating" online? I can barely even find a reference to the word in Google! The only thing I found was an article by Toby Connor mentioning it ;-)

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  27. DG,
    I used to have the web address for the Blees ratings. But one of my mathematician subs figured out the formula so it's programmed into the COT spreadsheets.

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  28. We have to keep the big picture in mind guys. Gary is trying to keep us from riding through a draw-down like last year. But several times now, I have REGRETTED not buying back in after a decent discount as gold/miners just took off and I had to chase. Even if we buy now, the stop will limit losses. And even if you go through a draw-down, we have been given a serious discount as of today's closing prices - in a month or two, all of this will seem trivial as we set new highs, having bought back in at lower prices (with or without the stop).

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  29. One other thought for those of us less gutsy than Gary: There will be an other daily cycle low in 25 days or so. Gold is not going to rocket straight to $1600 (yet). Taking on a chunk here will give us a nice profit by mid-February which will enable us to add leverage with a nice cushion/head start to be there in full if/when the mania stage starts.

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  30. DG, You could be way off on that, and if Gary didn't think so he would not be making this move.

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  31. DG,
    Good point.

    Most people just aren't capable of seeing a draw down as a positive. If the stop gets hit they will lose sight of the big picture (this is a bull market). They will then be gun shy at the next cycle bottom and won't be able to buy.

    The simple truth is that if the stop is hit one will make a lot more money. But that is dependent on being able to take another swing when the time is right.

    If you know that another loss will mess with your head and then you won't be able to re-enter at lower prices then follow DG's plan.

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  32. Gary you are going to be very happy Miners about to explode upwards

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  33. Gary,
    You have probably answered this before but I can not find it in the archives;
    Why do you not use futures, either silver or gold?

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  34. I share the indecision of others...but at the end of the day, intuition is a difficult thing to explain. At some point, the switch flips and it's time...it flipped some time ago for me (probably all of us) on PM fundies, and I look at Gary's cycle intuition as a powerful indicator that it may be time to move forward. I'll up my core tomorrow to 50-60% and wait for weekly confirmation before going all in.

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  35. I just never have. I suppose I should look into it but I really don't need or want that kind of leverage.

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  36. FYI, this could end up being meaningless, or vital, but according to a source, the end of February should see Ireland's debt problems in the headlines. You can extrapolate with many things on this potential event.

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  37. Gary,
    why do you suddenly change your plan and your whole thought process on the intermediate low?

    for about a month you've been saying the correction in stocks will drag miners down at the selling climax, and it's not safe to get in until then. moreover, you said you thought the int cycle wont bottom until feburary at the earlier. why suddenly change your mind into thinking the low is in?

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  38. What I am implying, and yes I believe it is a long shot, but, we could see the end of February mark the top of the dollar cycle (prior to the move down into the 3 year cycle low), the yearly cycle low in stocks, and the bottom prior to the C-wave advance in gold/silver.

    I still fully agree with Gary, and his plan is really bullet-proof as he has tried over and over again to explain. My hunch is though you may not go anywhere for the month of February, maybe a few percent net gain in PMs (you may not even get stopped out if we don't move much), but then you'll be well positioned for the months of April-May.

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  39. Calm before the storm.

    I think we'll see less direction over the next month and this tends to wear more people than you think out.

    Time will tell. I actually think February will be very volatile, but the net movement will not be much for the dollar and gold/silver.

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  40. Let me say this again.

    I'm not saying the intermediate low is in. What I'm doing is entering at a daily cycle low in case it has bottomed. The stop protects me if I'm wrong. And if the stop gets hit it just means I will make even more money.

    So I don't know if the intermediate cycle has bottomed or not. I don't need to know if it has because the plan will handle both scenarios.

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  41. I am leery. The last time you changed your tune on a dime like this was the last days of december. If you had stuck to your guns there, we wouldn't have got smacked down the first week of Jan...

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  42. P,
    I have to ask. So what? Hitting that stop just guaranteed you would get in at a lower price, which by the way is what you will do in the morning.

    If this stop is hit it will again just guarantee you will get in at a lower price.

    You are losing sight of the big picture. This is a bull market.

    As long as you continue to think like a trader you sabotage yourself. You need to think like an investor and understand that hitting a stop in an intermediate decline just means more money in the end.

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  43. all right all right. I understand your point, I'm just sayin... I'm still following you in. Once more unto the breach, dear friends.

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  44. Tomorrow gold will soar and the miners

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  45. With likely 6 weeks left in the dollar int cycle, everybody convinced that the rounded top was the death of gold, along with that 1330 break and power move up, I'm not convinced at all those stops will be hit.

    TK's Golden Shower statue should have been a tip to go all in.

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  46. Gary,

    Will you enter with market orders at the open? Or do you use limit orders?

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  47. I'll start with limit but if it starts to get away from me I'll switch to market.

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  48. Gary,
    you are protecting vs both scenarios. but what leads you to think that there's a greater than 50/50 chance the intermediate cycle has bottomed? you didnt think that it would happen this early before.

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  49. I bought a little today, thinking that we're due for a bounce. My plan--if indeed the bounce continues--was to take profit on what I bought today by attempting to time the top of the bounce or just use a trailing stop.

    Now, though, I don't know... I will likely buy more tomorrow, but whether to take profit in a few days or let it ride will depend on whether we get confirmation that the IT low is in.

    Gary, that confirmation would be a swing low on the weekly chart?? Is that the only thing we'll use for confirmation, or are there other criteria as well?

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  50. Gary,

    You're very wise at spotting bottoms and would like to learn to think like you...

    Last year , gold formed a similar bottom followed by a huge up day (just like today)...and then 4 days later broke down again and then finally formed the final intermediate low.

    The action this year has been really similar...it's actually scary to see how similar/identical it's been...

    Today, gold bounced of a support in a big way just like last year...but then last year this was a fake low and gold had a panic selling day a few days later...

    you were thinking along the same lines again that gold will have a fake low and then drop again.

    Until today, when you seemed to have seen something different. what did u notice today that was not there last year?

    Thank you for answering

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  51. A couple of things. The volume on today's move. The Blees rating on gold. And I happened to look at the public sentiment poll this evening.

    Usually I check it Tuesday night when it comes out but for some reason I missed it last night. Probably got side tracked watch Stana Katic.

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  52. PC,
    A weekly swing is only one confirmation. We had a weekly swing last year and gold threw a curve ball right after that.

    The biggest confirmation will be that the stop never gets hit.

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  53. Stana Katic will do it every time :)

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  54. In Garys defense

    I posted yesterday that I bought EXK and AXU and HL around 10 a.m. IT WAS NOT EASY , but I got my signal.

    All day yesterday I wondered about it turning and selling off-things looked weak (WHEW, it didnt come)

    Today I added NG , at 10 a.m. and was 100% invested again...but it was still scary!!

    IT DIDNT LOOK GREAT, I was waiting all day for the FED to speak on interest rates and see what happened AFTER THAT...sell-off or buy??

    LARGE volume buying came in after that, at days end...THEN felt a lot better!

    http://www.screencast.com/t/utYu7bnoCc

    http://www.screencast.com/t/NBHgiTK6W

    So in Gary's defense , he didnt think it looked good yesterday..and it DID look like a possible weak bounce ( I was ready to bail when these tested their 20sma)... but with late day high volume today, its starting to feel like it could be REAL BUYING...a bottom.

    So maybe what Gary saw (weakness yesterday)changed as the day went by today?? add that with other signals.

    Excuse me for speaking for you Gary, but I kept reading "WHY did you change.." and "You must admit you changed.." " Your opinion has changed..." ..so I know todays late day volume did seem to 'change things' (I'll sleep better :)

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  55. Gary,

    To repeat Poly's question>

    "BTW, is your coming intermiadate decline for equities still as previously stated?"

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  56. Gary-

    you posted that 'volume' reply while I was writing my post.

    I knew 'something(s)" must have changed for you..and everyone was asking ..'what'

    sorry I spoke for you ;)

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  57. Gary,

    Will your plan change if gold or silver is up or down tomorrow in terms of when you will buy or will you buy at the open regardless of what gold or silver are doing at that time?

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  58. WMP,
    It should be but even if it does the selling shouldn't effect miners until we get to the end at the selling climax.

    And like I've said for the 10th or 11th time now. Hitting the stop just means we will make more money.

    I could care less if the stop gets hit. And I certainly have no desire to trade the stock market, long or short. I've been trying for months now to convince everyone that was a waste of time and money.

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  59. The way i see it. if this is just a short covering rally then we should be able to spot it way before the stops get tiggered.

    Look for the blow off top and the next day confirming close (usually accompanied with high selling volume).

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  60. I would prefer a flat or down open. A big gap up will be tough, so let's cross our fingers and hope that doesn't happen.

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  61. Here's gary

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MsmybQKpmTw&feature=related


    "I'm going LONG!...Who's WITH ME?!? ARRAARRARRGGGHHHHH......" (runs out the room to his trading screen)

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  62. well if there's any doubt about silver not performing this quarter

    here it is.

    sil up 6.17 %

    gdxj up 4.68 %

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  63. Gary, I think you're jumping the gun.

    If you're wrong and your stop gets hit, it will be a 7-13% loss on capital I estimate, including margin - sort of like in December. Back-to-back, that can be a lot for people to take.

    Keep in mind that many of your subs haven't been with you long enough to accumulate the type of profits you have.

    I can give a list of reasons why you may be early:

    -$BPGDM hasn't made a convincing turn yet (maybe tomorrow, if we see follow-through today)

    -Gold hasn't even retraced 50% of its previous weekly cycle leg up

    -Gold hasn't touched either the 150-day or 200-day moving average (unlike the past several weekly cycle lows)

    -Silver hasn't even tested $25

    -No weekly swing low yet

    -There are a ton of retail stops sitting under $1315, which was also a previous daily cycle low (that level is just asking to be broken)

    -The dollar should be making its daily cycle low very shortly, which will probably result in gold's daily cycle topping

    Anyway, maybe you will be right. Maybe you will be wrong. I just think it's too early to be going 130% long. An increase in your core from say 35% to 50 or 60% sounds a lot more reasonable, unless we get follow-through tomorrow (at which point you could up it to say 80-100% long, and then wait for a weekly cycle low to add margin).

    Just my humble opinion.

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  64. Everyone be on the alert for those nasty bear flags. You guys save my A couple of weeks ago. A poster had mentioned about a bear flag forming on gold and this was after I bought shares that day. Lucky for me I knew what a bear flag was (believe me I do) and sold my shares that very same day. The next day gold tank.

    Whew!

    Thank you

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  65. You can now see why trading PMs via futures is the superior way to go. Apart from the tax advantages, you don't have to fret a morning gap. If your evening analysis says buy, you can buy right now, in the middle of the night. If I could convince Gary to use futures while he convinced me not to tangle with the stock market, we'd both be much better off. ;-)

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  66. Aly,
    You are missing the point. I would welcome the stop getting hit. It means I would make even more money.

    If GLD touches 128.90 I will exit and try again. So what if it results in a loss. The first loss a month ago has resulted in a much lower entry. So yes it was a loss and everyone freaked out about it but the end result was a much better entry and much bigger profits in the long run.

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  67. That was a huge move today in the miners.

    Looking at the longer term charts on the HUI--I'm starting to think that was it and Gary may be right here.

    First off, HUI tagged the 61.8 retracement just about perfectly. (I shaved off the peak wick and that seemed to fit the levels perfectly)

    http://www.screencast.com/users/Jayhawk1991/folders/Jing/media/1be35d24-b5b0-4ace-9eda-0cda3b19e87f

    Last Feb we went under that level for a few days, but that zone was the bottom. Last summer's intermediate bottom only hit the 50% level.

    Look at the weekly chart and compare the final sell off last Feb and this year. We had three pretty strong weeks down followed up by a nice reversal/hammer type candle. Also, the WEEKLY RSI 7 levels have only hit this level of over sold 2 times in the last 2 years. Last Feb and now. Both hit under the 30 level and curled up fairly fast.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/Jayhawk1991/folders/Jing/media/1fcdf22e-9d3a-472d-9727-aacdfefa6380

    This year, we have the three year cycle low on the dollar directly in front of us. I'm wondering if this thing might just take off really hard right now.

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  68. It just occurred to me that a lot of people are questioning why Gary is going in long now including myself. Perhaps this will really make him not want to push the trigger tomorrow morning but isn't that when you are supposed to be buying? When it's really hard to hit that buy button?

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  69. jayhawk,

    I agree we're on the express elevator this time!

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  70. What does this new thinking do for your view on SPY and the dollar?

    BTW, I bought some miners yesterday and this morning.

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  71. Gary,

    Here's what has me SCARED...a stone tablet shaped like a chicken burrito hasn't fallen from the heavens with the word "buy tomorrow" scribbled across it in picante sauce. Until you take a photo of that bad boy and post it in a nightly report I ain't following you into the breach. The fact that investing is about playing the odds and the fact that your calls usually work out mean nothing, see.

    I mean, I know this is the only secular bull in the world right now and I know you gave us a very clear stop to protect ourselves and I know if the stop gets hit it will ultimately just result in even larger profits...but, but...come on man, you're WORRYING ME! ; )

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  72. I know you have to wait for the week to end on these candles...but so many beautiful hammers on these miners (SSRI, PAAS, SLW, SVM, etc) forming on the weekly charts.

    Catbird-

    You own PSLV in a taxable account and are you a US citizen? Those funds (CEF, etc) are a pain in the rear from what I've read.

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  73. All these comments here are amazing to me. I am definitely the longest term trader here. I never thought Gary should have gotten out of the mining stocks to begin with. If i had of been out I would have been scaling back in the last couple days. But for all of you that did get out Gary is absolutely correct in getting back in tomorrow. One thing is for sure, Gary knows a bottom when he sees one.

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  74. Jayhawks

    I agree very much with that chart (at least for now, right??). If its a bounce and gets retested , fine..but I drew a similar chart for GDX a couple weeks ago showing where I WOULD buy if I got a proper signal(set ups).

    http://www.screencast.com/t/ujaPdaLFx9t1

    Its GDX , but you could actually draw the same trendlines on your chart. The oversold areas are RARE on the stochastics. I feel its time, BUT time will tell.

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  75. Jayhawk,

    Although collectibles are taxed at 28% even if held for over a year, my understanding is that if you sell them inside of a year for a short term gain the gain is taxed at your income bracket--not 28%. Am I wrong?

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  76. Cat-

    Got to the CEF message board on Yahoo Finance and search the board for PFIC--It's my understanding that PSLV is also considered a PFIC.
    -----



    "CEF is a PFIC (Passive Foreign Income Company). It is a closed-end mutual fund traded on stock exchanges. It does not trade futures. It owns gold and silver bullion stored in a bank in Canada. CEF shares are not considered as a "collectible" for US income tax purposes. Gains on shares held over one year may, but do not automatically, qualify for the preferential rate on LT capital gains. CEF is eligible for treatment under the PFIC rules as a "qualifying electing fund" which means if you file the right forms at the right time you can pay tax at the long term capital gains rate on gains for shares held longer than 1 year. If you don't file Form 8621 it means you accept the default PFIC tax treatment, which means gains for positions held over multiple tax years will be allocated to each year, and subject to tax at the HIGHEST rate in existence for each year and interest is charged on the tax allocated to prior years.


    You have to file Form 8621 and indicate that you want to be taxed by the "QEF" method. You will probably have to get this form from the IRS web site, as it is not supported by most tax software, and most tax return preparers don't know and don't want to know about it, and if you do anything with a PFIC in the future that affects the rest of your tax return, you will have to figure out on your own how to do that. Read the "Instructions for Form 8621" at WWW.IRS.gov and you will get an idea of what is involved. If you don't do your own tax returns, before you buy CEF in a taxable account, discuss with your return preparer whether he is qualified and willing to do PFIC returns, and what the extra charge might be."


    The more I read about all this crap, I decided to drop PSLV like a hot potato last fall. I just found it all overwhelming...Now in an IRA, I think it's fine.

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  77. Cat-

    Go to the CEF message board on Yahoo Finance and search the board for PFIC--It's my understanding that PSLV is also considered a PFIC. There's special forms you have to file with the IRS
    -----

    I tried posting the details over and over, but this blog kept deleting me.


    The more I read about all this crap, I decided to drop PSLV like a hot potato last fall. I just found it all overwhelming...Now in an IRA, I think it's fine.

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  78. Alex-

    Can you break down your portfolio now that you are 100% in?

    Ex-SLW 25%, SVM 10%, etc...

    Do you use leverage?

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  79. Bob,
    The view on the dollar has never changed. It's heading down into a three year cycle low.

    My view on the stock market hasn't changed. It's still due for an intermediate decline. I could care less though as I never had any intention of getting tangled up in the stock market. The gains trying to short stocks are minuscule compared to the gains possible by riding a bull.

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  80. I'm way past my bedtime. We can continue this in the morning.

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  81. One thing to bear in mind regarding if Gary's timing or support level is perfect or early. The open interest on the March contracts are rising, anmd the vaults are emptying. In March long investors can take delivery, so we will have a metal squeeze going into that expiration, for sure.

    I am scaling in over the next two weeks at any rate, and I never went as low as Gary did so today was a spectacular day for me and I am well positioned. Relax and enjoy the ride.

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  82. Jayhawk,

    OK, after a little Googling, I found the form. It's a 2 pager.

    http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/f8621.pdf

    Yeah, it's a nuisance but it's not exactly the end of the world. I think I'll just do AGQ and SIL from now on.

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  83. "A couple of things. The volume on today's move. The Blees rating on gold. And I happened to look at the public sentiment poll this evening."

    Hi Gary, what's the sentiment poll you're referring to and is there somewhere we can follow it?

    Also if anyone has a link to data where we can follow the Blees rating changes that would be appreciated too.

    Thanks!

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  84. I track the Blees rating on the COT spreadsheets every week.

    In order to track sentiment data you would need a subscription to sentimentrader.com

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  85. People are freaking out because Gary wants to get back in??? lol...

    This is why you should NEVER piggy-back on someone else´s trades. Everyone should do his own homework.

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  86. My mechanical trading system for gold futures is always in the market long or short, and has a track record of 65% winning trades going back to 2001 when GC Globex started trading. It is not based on the pit session.It is still short from1381 and will flip to a long at 1354 with that # coming down every day. It will be 2 straight trades that are winners so the odds say if this does go long it may not be a great trade, but anyone following Gary's advice will have a very nice reasonable stop.Gary, I also can't understand why you don't trade futures. IB makes it so easy being able to trade virtually everything from 1 account.

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  87. Also, I believe today is the last trading day for the near month and may cause a little volatility but hopefully the swing low will hold.

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  88. You guys pick my thoughts perfectly to why I keep a 100% core in this gold bull. Both entry and exit can drive you nuts! Pretty impressed with some on this blog in beating the pure old turkey strategy so far, but agg I don't have the heart for it. :)

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  89. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  90. While true, David, the truth is that Gary is a better trader than most of us (at least right now, and probably for the foreseeable future in the case of most of us).

    Add to the fact that most subs work full-time and you can see why they defer to Gary's judgement quite often. This game isn't easy, especially for the working joe, and if you don't have time to analyze it properly - you will really suffer and get hurt. People like Gary are thus a big help to those still interested in playing the game.

    So, it is perfectly natural for many if not most subs to defer to Gary, despite how incredible you might find it. Maybe it's not ideal but we don't live in a perfect world.

    Personally, although I'm pretty busy with work, I try to do the analysis myself and use Gary as a consultant of sorts. I trade micro gold futures and have gone to 3 contracts long from 2 (my "core") - with a stop at $1321.35 on 1 - and will move to 4 if I see some follow-through before the end of the week (need to see $BPGDM make a more convincing turn higher). I will then wait for a weekly swing low before adding more. I typically go to a max of 5 or 6 contracts.

    My analysis right now suggests that there's a reasonable chance the weekly cycle low is in but it's far from certain, especially considering how mild the decline has been in the metal (although the decline in miners has been more than adequate). Hence why I'm not going fully long like Gary (not yet, at least).

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  91. Hmmm... We had a pretty sound plan in place, and suddenly it changes. I don't like these kind of surprises.

    This new plan sounds uncomfortably like the last one that went awry.

    I'm not sure this trading approach fits in so well with your other advice regarding ol' turkey. One of the mantras you keep repeating Gary, is that you only lose money in bull markets by selling at a loss. And here you are using tight stops and accepting 5% draw downs.

    I understand that the draw down means lower prices, but the new plan seems rushed and reactive. As opposed to most of your advice which focuses on patience and planning.

    Still, I don't pay you a subscription to then ignore your advice, so I have taken my core back up to 60%. If we get confirmation of the bottom, I will go all in; if we go lower, I will sit it out with my core intact and use the cash to average down at next cycle bottom.

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  92. "Gary, I also can't understand why you don't trade futures. IB makes it so easy being able to trade virtually everything from 1 account."

    I agree. Don't be silly, Gary. You control the leverage with futures - so, the only reason you shouldn't trade them is if you don't trust yourself with the buying power you will have.

    I trade micro gold futures (can't afford the mini or the big as I'm too young with too little capital as yet) and take far less leverage than you, even though you use ETFs. The reason for that is that although very little cash is needed to acquire a relatively large position with futures, I still nevertheless keep plenty of cash on hand and never use anywhere near my full buying power.

    Futures have no slippage and can be traded almost 24/7, and are more efficient than bullion ETFs almost anyway you look at it. Of course, if you want to buy mining companies instead of bullion, you will need to use ETFs (or "build your own ETF," so to speak).

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  93. "Hmmm... We had a pretty sound plan in place, and suddenly it changes. I don't like these kind of surprises.

    This new plan sounds uncomfortably like the last one that went awry."

    As someone who's been with Gary for a while, I can tell you that when most of his subs complain, he usually ends up being right.

    That said, I agree with you about Gary making a 180. You can see my recent blog posts above are indicative of that.

    But, that's just how it is. At the end of the day, he's got to publish in his newsletter how he feels and what he thinks is best. If that means he has to change his opinion on a dime, then so be it. We all have to do that sometimes to ultimately end up doing what we think is right. Being flexible in your opinion (sometimes very flexible) is the life of a newsletter writer who wants to be successful, and subs can gripe about it but at the end of the day shouldn't complain too much because he's just doing his job.

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  94. Futures do have slippage, so to speak. Any time you're rolling from the near month to the next you pay a premium of a couple dollars which dwindles to the next expiration. This premium is used for insurance and storage at Comex vaults.

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  95. alysomji,

    If someone doesn´t have the time or inclination to learn about the markets, then they shouldn´t be involved in it. All I am saying is that piggy-backing other people is not a good way to approach the markets. Not because Gary isn´t a great trader, but because unless you give your money to Gary for him to manage it personally, you will screw it up. At some point people will screw it up, if they are depending on other people´s decisions to make their trades.

    I´m a proud subscriber because I use Gary´s material as a way to learn about cycle analysis, which is something I knew nothing about. And I expect to use it to improve my results. But I would never ever try to follow someone else´s trades, because I know the chances are very high I will screw it up badly at some point. It´s simply impossible to follow someone else´s trades perfectly, simply because we are all different.

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  96. shhhut...Gary is buying... :-)

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  97. Gary,

    this all seems like a waste of time. In out in out. How is that old turkey? This just turns into the proverbial noise. I guess that is what a blog is all about, something needs to happen and be talked about. How boring would it be for a blog to just sit on a position until there is proof that a D wave is beginning? I don't see how this in and out makes you any money. For the second time in 24 hours I am referring to Jim Rogers, and the same is probably true for all old school investors. You don't sell anything of what you believe is in a bull market, and when it dips you just buy more if you are liquid enough. Isn't that the better plan?

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  98. David,
    couldn't have said it better. Thank you!

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  99. basil,

    You are quite wrong. Gary already made more money than an investor in the past few months, simply by exiting his positions when gold was trading above 1400 and reentering today wit gold trading at 1330.

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  100. Basil,
    There are very clear reasons to get out...and to get in.

    The reason to exit last month was because a daily cycle low was broken. That almost always means an intermediate decline has begun. If that is the case then getting out is appropriate because the odds are high one can re-enter lower. That is the only reason to stop out is if one has high odds of a lower entry.

    So what has happened since hitting the stop? That's right an intermediate decline unfolded and now we are entering at much lower levels than we exited.

    If the next stop is hit it will mean the same thing that we should get an even better entry.

    Those lower entries mean that in the long run we will recover all those minor losses and end up making a lot more money.

    That's why I keep trying to explain that hitting a stop below a cycle pivot isn't a bad thing it's a good thing because it means we are going to make a lot more money.

    The problem is that people are conditioned to view a draw down or loss as a bad thing, when in reality, in this case, in a secular bull market, it's actually a very good thing.

    We are proving it with today's entry that is much lower than where we got stopped out at a few weeks ago.

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  101. WTF is everyone complaining about? It looks like a stretched daily cycle that bottomed yesterday with an extremely tight stop (in gold standards), and a potential intermediate low,bottoming potentially on option expiration shenanigans.Just buy,put your stops in and don't overthink.

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  102. perhaps you are right, I don't know. Seems it works on some trades and on others it doesn't. Only because one's timing is right one time doesn't mean it is the previous or the next time. So with the exception of a D wave draw down, wouldn't it at the very least be the same result if you just sit out the rest of it?

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  103. That previous post was a reply to David.

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  104. basil,

    It all comes down to the question: Do you have an edge?

    If Gary believes he has some kind of edge, than he is absolutely right to try and time some tops and bottoms. Given that he has an edge, it will perform better than simply buying and holding.

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  105. David, I disagree with you completely. If a sub gets anywhere close to Gary's performance as far as trading is concerned, he/she should consider himself/herself pretty happy about that - especially if he/she works full time. You seem to live in a world of ideals where if something can't be done perfectly it shouldn't be done at all.

    As I explained earlier, it is perfectly natural for many if not most subs to defer to Gary, despite how incredible you might find it. Maybe it's not ideal but we don't live in a perfect world.

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  106. Gary,

    Well, my reply to David actually works as a reply to your comment, to.

    I appreciate your explanation and give you the benefit of the doubt, meaning that I suppose you know what you are doing when you trade the PM market.

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  107. No, basil and David, what it comes down to is whether you're able to buy back in at a lower price than you're selling at. If the answer is no, then in a secular (or even cyclical) bull market you should just keep holding until the fundamentals change and a permanent top can be confidently said to be in.

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  108. A big bonus this morning is that gold is down substantially. Our risk at this point is about $12.00.

    One can't ask for much better than that.

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  109. that´s called an edge, in case you don´t know it. :)

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  110. When the fundamentals change you will be holding the bag alone.

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  111. And, for what it's worth David, I agree with you on one thing: if a sub falls on his face after "following Gary's trades", he/she should take responsibility for that and not Gary.

    But, fact of the matter is, Gary will continue to have an overall positive expectancy on his trades for the foreseeable future, barring a significant decline in the quality of his analysis due to some as yet unforeseen circumstance(s).

    So, if a sub decides based on his/her own judgement that it's wiser to listen to Gary for one reason or another, there's nothing wrong with it - so long as he/she also accepts responsibility for any losses that may come with this decision.

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  112. David,

    I don't get the word 'edge' in this context. If edge is based on a gut feeling I think it's just gambler's luck. If it is based on waves, and cycles, and other forms of analysis - I can show you other traders with an analytical 'edge' who will tell you that gold is headed lower. Edge is if you have some information that others don't. With all due respect, I don't think Gary has that information. He is definitely more experienced and knowledgeable than me, but so are all of the people on CNBC.

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  113. "When the fundamentals change you will be holding the bag alone."

    Quite the contrary, David. Secular bull markets almost always top after the fundamentals have changed. Gold will top well after it becomes relatively expensive and stocks become relatively cheap.

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  114. If you don´t believe such a thing as an edge exists, than whatever you buy (gold, stocks, oil, grains) you should never in your lifetime sell it. Because the moment you sell something, it´s because you believe you have an edge.

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  115. The cemetery is full of fundamentalists. People who understand and know much more about fundamentals than any of us. If only making money was this easy... simply follow the fundamentals.

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  116. For what it's worth, David, I'm not a fundamental trader. However, I'm not so naive as to believe that fundamentals don't ultimately determine the long-term direction of the market. They absolutely do and I challenge you to prove otherwise.

    In other words, the gold secular bull market started well after paper assets (stocks) became very expensive relative to hard assets (commodities, and gold in particular). Likewise, it will end well after the opposite occurs (paper assets, mainly stocks, become relatively inexpensive to hard assets).

    The first thing that changes before a long-term trend begins or ends is the fundamentals. That's because the long-term trend cannot even get into place without the right fundamentals being there well before hand. This has been the case throughout history.

    A quick look at the most successful investors bares out the importance of fundamentals in determining long-term trends (Soros, Jim Rogers, John Paulson, Warren Buffett, etc.). These gentlemen base their views on fundamentals and will only consider technicals for timing entries and exits (if at all), and for no other reason. To me, that is what technical analysis is for - timing entries and exits. Every long-term trend starts well after it has well grounded fundamental roots in place. Likewise, every long-term trend ends after its fundamental roots have disappeared.

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  117. The most important part is the fundamental story. If I happen to get stuck in a drawdown, fundamentals change, and I get a permanent loss, so be it....An old turkey strategy is based upon conviction at the beginning.

    That being said, I for one am always testing the fundie story, as it is the Achilles heal to the old turkey....Everything in my view is strengthening for the gold bull, which allows me to keep the path. Price btw has to be meaningless for a buy and hold in a bull, except to add perhaps.

    Also the risk of Gary’s trading practices, from a turkey’s perspective, is the opposite of a traders. Being out of the market is more risky than being in it. The other risk is if the strategy is thrown a curve ball, and either an entry or an exit cause a severe amount of pain because the person is thinking like a trader, and after hurting never touches this bull ever again. Humanity is a very important part of old turkey as well. Many old turkeys, I would imagine, have been burnt severely on the trading side. I know I have.

    Just like TA, fundie analysis takes great skill...also it can't be based upon any single item, but a series of information...fundies kept me out of the market in 2001, and I made money riding the bond yields instead, fundies kept me out of the market in 2007/2008, and fundies got me back in to a selective group of sectors in march 09(out after the bounce). Like anything in life, if it ain't your thing, try something else.

    Whatever works is always the best way.:)

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  118. Just to make the point. The oil trade in 08 continued despite the fact that the world was awash in oil. Tankers were sitting in the gulf with no place to drop their load.The world had already fallen into a recession, demand was already collapsing.

    What drove oil higher was human emotions.

    But the secular trend began in 2001 not because of emotion, but because of the fundamental driver of too much demand and too little supply.

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  119. Good points, basil, except for the CNBC comment. From your questions and observations, you've already proven you know more than most of the clowns on that channel.

    I started making big money when I dumped the propaganda box. Anybody that thinks CNBC (or Bloomberg) is giving them an edge is mistaken. More information is better, but only if it's legitimate and useful. The rest is noise at best, lies at worst.

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  120. alysomji,

    The fluctuations around the fundamentals are so huge, that knowing about the fundamentals is irrelevant to making decisions about entries and exits. At most, the fundamentals might give you a bias around which you will trade.

    By reading your last post, I see that we actually agree on some points. Where I disagree with you, is that you think that timing techniques should only be used to time the ultimate top, while I believe that timing techniques should be used to time lots of tops and bottoms, given that one has some kind of edge at timing these tops and bottoms.

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  121. Gary, could you possibly post to twitter when/if the stops are hit for those of us who don't have trade triggers through our brokerage, and can't be in front of a gold chart all day?

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  122. Jen,
    Virtually all online trading platforms have the trade trigger option.

    You could always call your broker and ask them how to place a trade trigger.

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  123. Shalom Bernanke,

    I appreciate your comment.

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  124. I've been using Sharebuilder from ING Direct, and they don't seem to have trade triggers unfortunately. I think I need to switch.

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  125. If I'm not out climbing I will tweet if the stop is hit.

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  126. Although we could see higher prices this morning, I'm sticking with my core and not buying into strength.

    I will add into a late morning pullback, should it occur.

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  127. Listen folks, the ability to change one's mind on a dime is a vital characteristic of a successful trader. Stubbornness gets you nowhere in this business. How many bloggers do you know will stick to a view for the sake of consistency or worse, ego, when the conditions have changed and merit a different view?

    Now, if anyone wants to debate Gary's decision on a technical point, we're all ears. That's what these discussions are for. But when I see someone criticizing Gary simply for doing something he wasn't planning the day before, it just tells me the commentator is not an experienced trader.

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  128. On the 60 min gold chart, the reversal is in. It's not a slam dunk, but it's an outside bar and that means there's a direction change. It's not the most powerful 2 bar chart pattern, but it's just now occurred, 6:30 am pdst. I've gone long but only on a mini. The target is 1340-45 on the hourly chart.

    For a reason I don't understand, the 1334-43 gap is not an area where the market is comfortable trading. It runs through it, but is not delighting in slicing and dicing it, at least not yet. I think this time, it's gonna make mincemeat out of anyone who can't trade in the moment and even for us, it's gonna be vicious.

    Silver's at a recovery high and gold is still unwilling to jump into the gap.

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  129. One thing that has not been mentioned here is the fact that this is a daily cycle low regardless of whether it is the IT bottom or not. That means we ought to rally for a few days at least. If that is so, we will have a profit and can decide based on the quality of the rally whether it looks like the real thing or not and do what seems appropriate. Gary: am I missing something here?

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  130. DG,
    My thinking exactly. I think if the cycle starts to show signs of weakening I will probably be able to spot it and exit maybe even with a small profit before the stops are ever hit.

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  131. IMO, today, the market will chop and end up within a few points of where it is now, unchanged. The movement here imo is exhaustion; as I posted in my kitco thread hours ago, this is a directionless market, imo, because of the NY Market gap which has some impact I'm not familiar with over the market behavior. So, the chop is as all can see turning out this morning to be vicious, and thus every direction-trader has been burned, and will soon step aside.

    Nice day for running errands.

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  132. David K: I am just about to get a buy signal on the dollar and have just gotten a sell on FXE. These signals are trading signals but quite accurate, though sometimes early. I will be re-entering my EUO trade should the dollar drop even a little from here.

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  133. Can anyone tell me what $BPGDM is?

    I can't get a chart of it on either TOS charts or Prophet charts.

    Thanks in advance!

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  134. It the ratio of mining stocks trading in an uptrend on their point and figure charts.

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  135. FWIW, last year we had a huge gap up the day after...

    this year we have a huge gap down...

    maybe to shake off weak hands?

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  136. Wise words doc. The investing world is littered with the bodies of those who've stubbornly stuck to their viewpoint/forecast, as their investing accounts were shredded. Most of them are really in the business of taking others' money in exchange for their "brilliant" views. Marketers, not smart investors.

    It's one thing to hop back and forth sporadically, reacting to the wiggles in the market, etc. That would be cause for concern. It's quite another to change based on a reasoned rationale and not being stuck in a viewpoint. And with a specific plan if it goes awry.

    I, for one, thank Gary for being so independent minded as to take this step. It would have been easy to just stay his the previous viewpoint, but he laid it on the line with us. Everyone is free to take their own course.

    That said, it's fair to ask questions for clarification, though you should take the time to review what Gary has said before just firing off the cuff. Understanding his methodology is key. Those who just follow the trades without understanding that are bound to be lost, and unable to prosper from it.

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  137. So far, a nice back test of the trend line the HUI broke through yesterday.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/Jayhawk1991/folders/Jing/media/ee97dc06-aecc-4ee0-b41e-254648f7b67d

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  138. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  139. Doc,

    changing one's mind is not a problem necessarily, depending on the frequency. Ultimately whether a trader is right by changing his mind is determined by the result, not just by the fact that he's changing his mind.

    And in general, why are some people getting so wound up here about Gary getting attacked. He's not getting attacked, and he doesn't need protection. Not every one shares every single of Gary's opinion, and nor should they, if you ask me. But it seems some here can't take a bit of controversy. I never understood that about fan following. Can't we appreciate Gary's blog without being slaves to his trades?

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  140. Gary: You mentioned one of the items that had yo u think this may have been the IT bottom was volume. The ETF's didn't have all that much. What were you looking at?

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  141. Well at least Gary doesn't mind controversy :)

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  142. DG,

    You said you have a sell signal on FXE. So why are you waiting for the dollar to drop a little more instead of just taking the signal and buying EUO now?

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  143. DG,
    Everything was above normal volume.

    And GDX, the proxy for the HUI, was almost twice normal volume.

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  144. Gary-

    For the ultimate safe call, when would the new intermediate low be confirmed? (Weekly swing low one would assume-What price would that be on POG)

    I'm putting my in laws in some positions so I want to be very conservative.

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  145. jayhawk,

    In my opinion, buying here is much more conservative than buying up there. By the time a trade is preceived as conservative, it is probably near the end.

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  146. anyone see the volume on SIL this morning...already 50% over normal volume

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  147. DG,

    Do you have a target for the dollar trade?

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  148. Pima: Just being conservative and waiting for extra confirmation. I pull in my horns when I have been wrong a bunch---which I have been this past six months. But it triggered after that last post, so I am now back in EUO.

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  149. David,
    Correct, buying now has much less risk as the stop is very close.

    Jay,
    How will we know the intermediate cycle has bottomed? The stop will never get hit.

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  150. David K. No. When I get one of these short term buys it gets me a very good entry point, and there is usually a sharp move soon after. Then I place a break even stop. I get out via tape reading or TA (a light volume new high, high-volume reversal, severe overbought, etc.) I very rarely have targets.

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  151. FWIW I doubt the dollar will be able to rise back above the downward sloping 50 DMA plus there is a resistance level around 79. Even if the dollar cycle bottoms here I doubt it's going to get very far before rolling over into another left translated cycle just like the last one.

    The last one only rallied for 6 days BTW. I expect the next one to be the same or shorter.

    There's little doubt at this point that the final push down into the three year cycle low has begun.

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  152. What price level is a gold weekly swing confirmed?

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  153. It's not possible to have a weekly swing this week. However if gold can move above the intra week high of $1353 next week then we will have a weekly swing.

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  154. The HUI would need to move above 518 next week.

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  155. I'll take a stab at the weekly swing low question. Two possibilities.

    1) If this week's bar were to make a weekly swing low, then it would have to print a price above last week's high, which was 1378.90 on the March futures.
    2) If this week's prices do not go above 1378.90 on the futures, then next week would have to trade above this week's high, whatever that turns out to be. Also, I believe next week's low could not trade below this week's low.

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  156. anyone have any idea why gold has given up all of the gains since the fed announcement, but silver is still holding up well? it also looks like SLW and other miners aren't doing too well

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  157. Actually if gold traded above last weeks high it would form an outside week. That's not a swing low. The earliest a weekly swing can form is next week.

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  158. Not,
    Nothing wrong with today's action at this point. Just day traders taking profits on the big move yesterday.

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  159. Gary, Doc,

    You were both pretty bearish on stocks last few weeks. Now that Gary thinks that Gold has turned the corner, what is your view for the stock market in general? Thanks for your input

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  160. Jayhawk

    Well first of all we have to wait until next week to confirm a weekly swing low, and that assumes, of course that this week's low holds.

    If so then it's this week's high at 1353, and that assumes that that stays the same; i.e. is not exceeded this week.

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  161. Sophia,
    My view is that it is due for an intermediate correction. The fact that it has made it almost all the way through January is a sign something unusual is happening. The market should have begun moving down several weeks ago. It being supported by the dollar's move down into the 3 year cycle low.

    So the possibility is there for an extremely stretched cycle that may continue to grind higher until the dollar puts in the three year cycle low.

    Now you see why I had no desire to short the market.

    The time to short will be when the three year cycle low bottoms. The rally out of that major bottom should correspond to the next brief deflationary period, just like it did in 08.

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  162. Thanks guys on the swing low feedback.

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  163. I didn't want to bring this up earlier...Was watching this bear flag on gold. Not sure where it measures-but if the pole started at 1345, it might break 1321

    http://www.screencast.com/users/Jayhawk1991/folders/Jing/media/3422e46a-626f-4761-8ed1-33ab819a3478

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  164. Just like last April, all of the (equity) bears got tired and broke waiting for that decline, even though it was so obvious the market need a correction. Weeks went by while the market just crawled higher and higher and eventually all gave up, afraid of being wrong so many times. Of course, it's precisely then that the market rolled over and caught everybody by surprise.
    In my book (as worthless as it is :-) this market is about to finally roll and at least initially take all ships with it.

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  165. Brother. Are we gonna get smoked again?

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  166. Gary

    Did you buy already or are still waiting. PMs seem to be acting very poorly!

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  167. Gary, thanks for continuing to follow the SPX - I have at least one account where I am restricted to trading stocks (no commodity exposure is available).

    DavidK - I have to strongly disagree about following Gary. I have been doing so for a couple of years now with great success and I am NOT a trader. I have a day job and can't follow the markets. But I am fully aware of our macro situation and agree with Gary's long term call. I am able to do exactly what he does with no errors. It's not terribly hard.

    To NOT be involved in the markets at this juncture simply because one is not a trader is ridiculous - the risk due to currency collapse is far too great to sit on one's hands in a bank account.

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  168. I'm adding 10% of funds to metals right here in the morning pullback.

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  169. gary,

    did you say to exit when gld hits 128.9? it's now at 128.8 ...

    not

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  170. According to kitco the stop has been hit as we traded at $1318.60. Anyone else confirm that?

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  171. I think we need to give it time to stick ... I wouldn't pull the trigger too quickly.

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  172. Gary-Seems like our stop just get hit. Do we exit our position here or wait for a bounce to sell into.

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  173. Yup, as I thought, Gary was early again... It was a good idea while it lasted though.

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  174. Yes trade triggers should have activated. Now we will jut wait patiently for the next opportunity. Perhaps it will come at 41290 maybe at $1265.

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  175. I think the 4 should have been $

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  176. Sandy,
    I exit when the stop is hit.

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  177. .9x, x being 60 pts, was just reached. IMO, this is close to the bottom if not the bottom. I'm long at this point. And it's doing the bounce.

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  178. Couldn't have asked for a better way to have been stopped. Barely in and then out is better than in and out for -10% :)

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  179. shoot..I miss the nightly email. I sometimes forget to check the blog, but I always check the email...Anyway.. I see we have plan change..hmm..I still have my core so I am staying put. I am going with the "Gary is always early call"..haha. I prefer not to trade in and out of positions or get stopped out. Since I don't trade a lot, I almost never use stops. I would rather just commit the cash and let the market correct my timing. I am speaking only of Gold/Silver. I am going to wait. At least a week. I agree with Jay or nikeboy or whomever it was that said, 'this feels eerily like last year.' I don't mind missing a few percentage points to the upside..because that is what my core is designed to capture.

    BTW, I can type, twiddle my thumbs and chew gum at the same time. Its all about practicing.

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  180. my 2c .. gld ma144 gdx ma252 ..again and again I think ...

    gld its 127.80 todays low 128.47

    gdx its 51.77 last low was 52.46

    if both hit above then huge positive divergance rsi(5)

    keeping it simple

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  181. Gary--
    Even though it was worth the shot I still think this was a good strategy!! Fundamentals haven't changed and we will get buys at lower prices. Small risk for high reward. Thank you for your analysis!!

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  182. Not: He hit "4" instead of "$"

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  183. gary,

    can you remind us where the number $1290 came from for gold?

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  184. Gary,

    Only because you mentioned it earlier, you said you'd tweet if stop was hit.

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  185. Just to clarify, you're supposed to buy high and sell low, right? Good, I've got that down this year. :)

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  186. That was painless. The advantage of tight stops. I posted a month ago that I will trade almost anything if the stops it tight enough. I lost $680 all told in the PM trade. Irrelevant. (I bought SIL and GDXJ at the bottom on the 25th, which helped. I got a buy on SIL that I didn't post. I will next time.)

    David K: UUP seems to have bottomed on cue, for now at least. No idea how far it will go.

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  187. Of course the dilemma here is that we don't know that yesterday marked the cycle low, and this may just be a nasty stop run that sets a marginal new low for the daily cycle low. Could be ugly.

    I'm staying with what I bought today, for better or worse (I'm not leveraged here). I'll let the bull cure my timing and forgo any possible gains I may have made by getting in even lower to ensure that I don't lose money on a stop run whipsaw. I can add leverage if we go lower.

    Brutal day

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  188. This is where people should be buying, IMO if they are longer term Old Turkeys. It's a gift, but be sure to keep some powder dry.

    Natan has it right.

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  189. Onlooker ... I'm with you ... since I don't hold a core usually I'll just keep what I bought as a core position ... seems like a good price.

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  190. hye Gary, what is your twitter name?

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