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Friday, January 6, 2012

THE PARTY MAY BE OVER!

About it every 35 to 40 days we get a major profit-taking event occur in the stock market. In bull markets that's all it is, a profit-taking event. In a bear market it is a resumption of the cyclical downtrend triggered by deteriorating fundamentals. It still remains to be seen whether or not stocks have rolled over into another cyclical bear market.

However we are entering the timing band for one of those daily cycle corrections. It's not unusual to see this begin as a profit-taking event on the employment report, as we enter earnings season.



As long as earnings season meets expectations then that is all this should be, just a profit-taking event. However, if earnings season disappoints then this could intensify significantly. If in addition we start to see stress in the European debt market escalate it would magnify the rally in the dollar increasing the downward pressure as stocks begin the move down into that cycle low. Let's face it the problems in Europe aren't going away. The cancer in the debt markets is going to continue to chew its way up the sovereign food chain until it finally reaches the US bond market.

The fact that the dollar has consolidated for several weeks above the double top breakout is a strong sign that another powerful leg up is beginning.


Even more concerning for the bullish case is the fact that the next daily cycle should roll over into a much larger degree intermediate decline. That would almost certainly power another leg higher in the dollar and depending on how severe the stress has become in Europe we could see the October lows tested, and even broken if this is a new cyclical bear market.


The kind of selling pressure that is generated at daily cycle lows and especially during an intermediate degree decline effects every asset class to some extent. Gold will be no exception. This is why I have been warning people to wait for the daily cycle low to form in stocks before jumping heavily into precious metal positions.

Gold may or may not have put in a final D-Wave bottom last week. But there is a good chance that bottom is going to get tested in the next couple of weeks. And then of course we will have to contend with the selling pressure as stocks move down into their intermediate degree decline in February and March. That could conceivably drive gold back down below $1523, although I think any dip below that level will only be marginal and quickly recovered.

Right now patience is the name of the game until the stock market has formed a daily cycle low which is due sometime in the middle of January. Cash or a modest position in the dollar index is safest bet for the next couple of weeks.

683 comments:

  1. Gary,

    I know it would foolish to ask if you advise a s&p short position.
    would you advise it in your agressive portfolio service?

    ReplyDelete
  2. The same rules apply to the aggressive portfolio as the model portfolio. It's just too hard to make money on the short side unless you are willing to wade through thousands of financial statements and find sick companies.

    Are you willing to do that kind of due diligence?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Gary,

    What about a short of the S&P using SDS or SPXU not individual companies per se?

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  4. You are under the illusion that you are going to be able to make money selling short with no more due diligence than a charting service. The odds of that happening are pretty small.

    Successful short-sellers have research departments that uncover sick companies.

    Retail traders selling short based on nothing more than lines on the chart almost always lose money.

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  5. Gary,

    I just thought that since you are pretty sure that the S&P is heading down because of the strong dollar, then shorting the index using an inverse ETF would be profitable. Does that not make sense?

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  6. You are making same the mistake that many others have made. You are trading my expectations instead of following my trades.

    I don't sell short because it's too hard to make money. I wait until a daily cycle low has formed and then I buy.

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  7. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  8. The inverse funds will only track so far - daily resets over the longer term will cause divergence (for better or worse). I believe SB has mentioned in the past a better strategy - if you can, short the long fund.

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  9. A possible portfolio change for active traders has been posted to the website.

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  10. But Gary,

    You are pretty sure a DCL for the stock market is imminent.
    Would that not mean lower prices than where we are today? It seems obvious to me, not to mention your "more severe" scenario with the ICL also coming.

    I'm shorting this pig, WW and others here doing that, too, so I don't think it's something ill-advised.
    Safer to play long side, for sure, but barring an unprobable QE3 there is simply not much to the upside in this market. Imo of course.

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  11. It's easy to say I'm going to short into the daily cycle low and it's a surefire moneymaker. In real time it's a whole different ballgame. For one, as we have seen over the last several days, you never pick the top perfectly. so most people get whipsawed multiple times before they catch the top. By then there so gun shy they can't hold onto the trade.

    Plus once we start down you have intraday moves that knock you out of your positions early, and often at a small loss.

    The simple fact is that markets go down differently than they go up and it is much much harder to make money on the down move than it is on the bull side.

    ReplyDelete
  12. P2000,
    I got room, throw that Pig on the Grill!!

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  13. Yeah, either me or the Pig is toast when it's over. lol

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  14. BTW, I like to play it safe, so I'm not gonna be a hero whatsoever.

    My trade is pure and simple, based on the assumption that we're gonna tag the breakout point of the 200-day MA.
    That's 20 points down from here, and even an 1x ES contract would make you a thousand bucks.
    Major-major overhead resistance in the 1300-1320 SPX band, and should the big boys try and pump the pig up to that level, I will just add more shorts. It'll break eventually, and when it does, money will be made on the short side...
    Simple as that and seems a low risk/reward play for me. Okay, QE3 could ruin this plan, but with 100+ oil and 1280 SPX I don't see it happening near term.

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  15. Gary,

    "Retail traders selling short based on nothing more than lines on the chart almost always lose money"

    I remember you shorting the SPX when it was in waterfall decline, I believe it was august 3rd's bounce that you shorted.

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  16. Gary,

    If im not mistaken it was off the 10dma average also, I remember commending you on that trade as the market dropped hard the next day.

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  17. WW ... True ... And I'm also taking a small bite here. More for educational purposes than anything else.

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  18. Losing money is not like getting run over by a bus. You need to lose money to remember the lesson.

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  19. Averaging losses is arguably the #1 most dangerous trading habit. But it's one thing to do it on a vehicle you can sit on - opportunity costs and emotional wear and tear are the biggest downside (assuming your price point rolls around eventually). Doing it on ES is crazy. Funny how those contract rolls come up sooner than you'd imagine when you're losing. Go into June if that's your thing though.

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  20. Gary,

    Please correct me on that if im wrong because I remember it vaguely, but I remember some of us calling it a "legendery" trade also.

    I remember you doing it very nonchalantly too, you said "oh well, I guess I will put the short trade back then" or something along those lines.

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  21. added to my short at es 1276 (via SDS though). last one was at 1272 a few days ago.

    this thing is still about $50 rich as far as buy volume goes.

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  22. finally able to post charts again..

    /ES, /GC, /ZN 4 hour charts with effective volume subgraph

    http://i44.tinypic.com/20af6kw.png

    since november more money has left /ES on the way down than on the way up. can't last forever.

    combine that with the epic amount of cash that flooded /ZN in the december rally.

    no real edge to gold here, but there hasn't been much of a positive divergence here which is why i'm inclined to think a new low will be made.

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  23. here's another fun one- SPY/IEF on a daily chart

    http://i40.tinypic.com/15zrpxw.png

    more of a big picture thing but handy in keeping one's bias aligned properly. still gotta lean bearish until it can regain either MA (which is a matter of time imo)

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  24. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  25. Danno, its the same reason why you are trying to call a top in the USD.

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  26. According to Kevin Depew at his twitter feed (kevindepew) and from what I see on thinkorswim, the WEEKLY gold (GC) futures are on Bar 7 of 9 of a BUY Setup. Need a new low below 1522 however over the next 2 weeks, to perfect the BUY setup. This will be good for 1-4 weeks after. TDST WEEKLY down level is at 1485, so need an up close (this week), followed by a down close below 1485 next week, then a down open on Monday to qualify.
    SPX did record a 13 DAILY Sequential SELL this week, but needs a Bearish price flip below 1257.60 futures.
    As I mentioned yesterday, all measures of the Euro (6E, FXE, EUO) are showing some kind-of rebound in the currency coming. I also just noticed DX dollar futures are showing a WEEKLY SELL Setup as well this week, good for the next 1 to 4 weeks. So, this is going to be a tricky time.

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  27. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  28. Stocks are moving in more of a "straight line" than the dollar, the dollar basically traded sideways for 14 days before this 3 day pop.

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  29. I have a buy signal on stocks, and I am seeing quite a few stocks that have reversed from recent bottoms quite significantly. I am expecting a breakout to the upside say within a week and then a small correction.

    The reason that I believe the markets to do well for now is the same reason why I believe precious metals are not going to break their recent lows.
    I think the Europe problem is priced into stocks (for the time being) and they have temporarily 'solved' the problem. Btw, I was over there at the peak of the crisis, and practically no one even mentioned a crisis. In all of Northern Europe people could not care less. It's much greater news over there than it is over here (for obvious reasons). Europe will disappear from the news sooner than later (again, for the time being). The new year is tired of crisis talk and ready to continue the rally at least for some time. I'm not going to bet my house on it, but I am currently long.

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  30. Instead of:
    It's much greater news over there than it is over here

    I meant to say, of course:
    It's much greater news over here than it is over there

    ReplyDelete
  31. Geesh,
    I think everyone went home early today, still on holiday schedule and long weekends, not much movement. :)

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  32. End of days on Fridays are notorious for low volume, atleast in the futures markets.

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  33. Does anyone know the futures symbols for gold, silver and oil for use on the list of indices on the TOS platform (i.e., the equivalent of ES, NQ, etc.)? Hope that makes sense. tia.

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  34. WW,
    Yes I have sold short before. But over the long run I've lost more money than I've made. I just don't bother anymore.

    It's called learning one's lesson.

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  35. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  36. Hamvestor,
    I think they are /gc,/si,/cl
    Jenny

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  37. Retail sector continues to show strength. RTH on crisp of another 52 week high. Everyone talks about a recession and the poor job market, but take a look at a retailer like Macy (new 52 weeks high, 3 year high today, up 10% this week) and you have to wonder who is spreading all this pessimistic view out there.
    Things aren't GREAT, but it certainly isn't horrible.

    ReplyDelete
  38. Jenny, thanks, that worked. I had tried all of those, but without the "/", so it wouldn't accept them.

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  39. I read in another forum. A good trader pull out a chart of the s&p over the the past recession. Not once have price closed above the 65 week moving average. If this was a continuation of the bear leg down from August 2011, then one have to seriously consider why this time it will be different.

    Gary said it's because of the dollar. Well, equities and the dollar have rallied side by side for 3 months now.

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  40. AAPL stock has only been down 2 days since mid December! Techs lead the way, and the economy is fine? no. The economy isnt dictated by the stock market.

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  41. Gary,

    I can tell that you definitely took a beating selling short, and dont even want to chance it anymore.

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  42. Danno,
    As you can see from the charts daily cycle lows are clearly evident. The only time in recent history that the market has stretched has been during QE1 and QE2 And even that didn't prevent a significant profit-taking event from occurring it just delayed it a little bit.

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  43. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  44. EricH,
    Actually stocks have only rallied on days that the dollar was falling they just haven't given much back when it rallied.

    However that cannot continue for a significant period of time unless we were in another productive phase. We haven't seen any true productivity increases since the tech bubble burst in 2000. That's why stocks generally only rise as the dollar falls.

    In lieu of true productivity the Fed is expanding the money supply to generate a phony bull market in stocks. This isn't a real bull market and it's why we had such a devastating collapse in 2008 and 2009. We will eventually get the same result this time.

    In the real world it's not possible to print prosperity. You get a short period of time when it seems like things have been fixed but eventually you have to face the unintended consequences.

    ReplyDelete
  45. Gary,

    You know what I love about you, your relentless in sharing your experiences with others to help them. Your a good guy, you really are. Your like a man on a mission :)

    ReplyDelete
  46. USD is up 7.92% from the October lows.
    SPX up 18.5% from the October lows.

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  47. The consolidation in HUI/XAU over the past few days now looks like a bull flag. And this has been while the dollar has been rising so it appears will get a breakout as soon as the dollar takes it's necessary breather.

    ReplyDelete
  48. "seen any true productivity increases since the tech bubble burst in 2000."

    Why aren't you classify the housing bubble from 2000 to 2006 as a productivity period? More homes were build in that period of than ever before in a 5-6 year period.

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  49. Does anyone else see the nearly perfecly symmetrical Rounding Bottom forming in ZSL that began in late June, with a spike midway through the bottom as is very common with Rounding Bottoms? Average trading price target would be $26.23. ZSL is currently at $14.62. That would be a DOUBLE my friends. Ultimate average price target would be aprox $29.21. Not sure this will pan out but pick up some ZSL today just in case things get hairy.

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  50. Ok .. now I am betting for a CLASSIC inverse H&S forming in daily gold chart. In Silve the figure can be even cleaner :)

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  51. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  52. And another 2 cents ... I think next week will be bulish for stocks. They consolidated over the gap this week and did not reverse today. If we break 1300 on S&P by next friday, gold will be out of time for a fall under 1525.

    Question is can we get another DC before the IC in stocks bottoms ?

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  53. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  54. Eric,
    Housing wasn't true productivity driven by demand. It was driven by a credit bubble. That's why it collapsed catastrophically, nearly imploding the global credit markets. The ramifications of that are going to be felt over years if not decades.

    ReplyDelete
  55. St D,

    When you get a chance can you drop me an email, Thanks.

    FromRips2Returns@aol.com

    ReplyDelete
  56. @AOL.com? What year is this? What are you on your way to see Jerry McGuire listening to Boyz II Men in your car? Are you wearing baggy jeans and trying to look like your from Seattle? Who's your biggest celebrity crush, Alicia Silverstone? AOL... get real.

    ReplyDelete
  57. Why work hard or take the risk of producing something original of lasting value when your house is “working” for you or you can get in on the millionaire-making housing-related job market?

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  58. Adam,

    what's your point. WW is still using dial-up from the local ISP :)

    ReplyDelete
  59. Ivan,
    D4mmit!!! That was so obvious. How did I miss that one too? I was too busy thinking pop-culture. haha

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  60. Gary,

    How would you terminate what's true productivity and what's not?

    The tech bubble looked like it was first driven by true demand, but eventually it got out of control and burst. The precious metal are going through that phase now. How can one argue that there's no true demand caused by true productivity from nations creating all these goods that we purchase on a daily basis.

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  61. Adam,

    You making fun of me? I had this email forever, since you were wearing baggy jeans trying to look like your from seattle. Its like saying change your phone number.

    ReplyDelete
  62. Ivan,

    I like the funny noises. I still use a motorola flip phone too, so stop picking on me ya filthy animals.

    ReplyDelete
  63. I'm not making fun of you. I'm making fun of your email provider.

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  64. He's playing "snake" on his phone.

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  65. Can I borrow Tomb Raider on your Sega Saturn?

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  66. Adam,

    LOLLLL, "snake"...too funny. I walk around with an Incredible Hulk blow up vest too.

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  67. Eric,
    True productivity is a sustainable industry that's not built on a credit bubble.

    In order for that to occur a couple of things must happen. First we must cleanse 40 years of debt from the system. Second we must solve our energy and general shortage of commodities problem.

    Once we do those two things then the world will be a position for the next secular bull market to begin. I suspect that it will be driven by biotech and the need to sharply reduce health care costs, which are a big part of our debt problem to begin with.

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  68. EricH,

    what is there that you can produce and export. If you can exchange tech job output for a plasma TV from Thailand that's OK but not anymore. If you can make plasma TV in the US that's even better, However the labour cost in the US is ridiculously high because of stupid government regulations. Instead of getting out of the way and let the cost of labour drop they want to debase the export currency (USD) and achieve the same result...blahhh..

    Everyone wants to have a construction job or drill. What for ?? People should go and think how to use energy out of the ocean waves and come up with artificial kidneys...

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  69. Im outta here, im going to play Pac-Man.

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  70. WW,

    those Motorolas were the real deal. Wish I can get a new one somewhere. Classic.

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  71. WW,

    do you know that Pac-Man was the testing program for the first PC motherboard out of IBM around 1969..Which version do you have :) ?

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  72. I'm cracking up here with impatience waiting for gold to bottom

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  73. Eamon ..is that you ? Didn't you have the thumbs tweeding machine ?

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  74. Ivan G, ha! I HAVE learned, however, that when I had this feeling in the past it was a portent to making mistakes on my part out of frustration
    I will wait, I aint making any dumbass mistakes. The wait is part of the game I have learned

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  75. Nah..there is the US export - a thumbs tweeding machine...

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  76. emailed anyone/everyone.. snoozer of a day and i definitely didn't get any questions answered.

    have a nice weekend everyone.

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  77. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  78. My DX trade turning old turkey, Thanks Gary, put on when you first mentioned UUP way back. You do make me ponder my sds trades but I guess I'll learn one way or the other. I am man enough admit only real money made short was during 2008. I'm slightly down with post 2008 shorts, but learning to use shorts more judiciously.

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  79. Forgot old turkey gold stocks since 2002 my biggest money makers by far. Just wish had that decade to do over, Would be in Tahiti,

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  80. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  81. who the fuck is toby connor and why does his site look like yours ?

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  82. Don't worry my friend Gary is aware of Toby, he's about 8 inches tall, 12 inches long, and weighs about 4 lbs.

    That's gary's alias

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  83. trouble coming for the S&P? http://goo.gl/F6EA6

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  84. As you can see from your chart. Those kind of divergences can last a long long time. And quite often a divergence gets corrected like it did in early 2001.

    I doubt anyone makes any consistent money from divergences.

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  85. Smartbullion

     Bullish % for the Dow is at the top of the range also.

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  86. SF Giants Fan, yup the indicators are lining up

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  87. Does this mean the worst year in human history has just began or does it mean that we're (hyper)inflating and gold is headed to $20k? JK!

    Serriously though, I'd like a trending market (up or down) just don't give me this up/down chop! :-)

    ReplyDelete
  88. Interesting analysis on a VIX variation VXV:

    http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2012/01/vxv-heralding-return-to-normalcy.html

    "Frankly, the VXV chart looks a lot like it did back in early April 2009....“The key takeaway: systemic healing is continuing and the risk of systemic failure is diminishing.” Based on the VXV chart, it appears as if we are at a similar moment in time right now."

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  89. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  90. Another interesting analysis with charts linked and annotated.

    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sfs/hubbartt010612.html

    UUP distribution does look clear.

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  91. sorry, link in 2 sections...

    http://www.321gold.com/

    editorials/sfs/hubbartt010612.html

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  92. CYCLES


    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

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  93. TO the individual who posted Hubbart from 321 gold... that commentator is CONSISTENTLY WRONG. i subscribe to him and cannot believe how wrong the majority of his analyses are. Hubbart was calling for a gold stock explosion in september followed by a crashing USD, and a gold super highway to 2300 rapidly. This guys volume analysis is amateur style and whenever he is wrong all he says is that " dont worry these stocks will go higher in the future". Not worth the money and the read IMO.

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  94. ILUVPMS,

    Thanks for letting know his track record.

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  95. if there is a war/engagement with Iran, is that likely to sink or spike gold? Anyone have a clue?

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  96. I'm getting Vibrations in Time hitting next week, Suggesting a Possible High:

    http://screencast.com/t/KvEaCXPuKfpC

    http://screencast.com/t/20ClGsuVa9X9

    Gann360

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  97. can anyone advise me where I can download daily spot gold price data from February 16, 2001 to date?

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  98. Stockcharts.com

    You will need to buy a subscription to get data more than 3 years though.

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  99. Gary, thank you. I was hoping I could avoid a subscription to get this data. I want to data mine the all the last 119 Daily and 30 Intermediate cycles of current gold bull. Hopefully it will allow me to download the data

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  100. Unfortunately nothing that's worth anything is ever free.

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  101. Just trying to plan how to do it. Maybe the best approach is to create a relational database of all the price and cycle data and then mine the data from there

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  102. What about kitco.com? I can't tell on my iPhone if the raw data table can be copied and pasted.

    Go to historical gold chart, check the year and select data only.

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  103. smartbullion,

    I believe you can get free historical data of daily spot gold, if you open a paper-trading account at Thinkorswim - which is also free.

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  104. RJ, kitco dont seem have the detail data I require, just London PM fix. I'd need open, close, high, low at a minimum. thanks

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  105. Try Metatrader. It has it from 2003 though.

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  106. Smartbullion:

    Try Kitco Interactive Charts Beta. Its free.

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  107. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  108. http://quotes.post1.org/historical-gold-price-chart/

    try this for gold data, someone posted on the premium site

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  109. Hi Everyone,

    I am debating whether I would continue to max out my 401(k) contribution and would like to have your inputs. Please help. Thanks much.

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  110. Too many expecting snp to make it over 1300... perhaps just whats needed for it not to make it there.

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  111. Rebecca

    If your thinking what I'm thinking and that tax rates in the future are only going higher then that might be a good plan. I would contribute the max to your 401k to capture any company match then max your Roth IRA out.

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  112. SFGF,

    Thank you! I am thinking exactly that and limited investment options.

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  113. Chris Martenson's  Video at the Gold & Silver Meeting in Madrid.
    Probably a repost but very informative

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  114. high 5

    yes but i heard our chief promised he would not ever do such a thing.
    Although he did not say he wouldnt allow someone else to do it

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  115. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  116. Danno, its the timimg. Will the snp ever make it to 1300? sure it will... but will it make it to 1300 this week is the question. It very well might, but its worth the worry that it might not.

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  117. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  118. Understood...Im not a day trader

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  119. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  120. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  121. Danno

    Why did you deleted your comments with predictions/expectations?

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  122. I was annoyed that no one was talking to me. That's actually the truth, as juvenile as it may be.

    FWIW I am currently considering Poly's idea that gold may drop well below 1400, to possibly the 1200 area. Too early for me to make a decision but, based on page 24 [Measure Rule for Trendlines] of the book 'Getting Started in Chart Patterns' I am beginning to believe it is possible.

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  123. Seems unlikely gold will make it to $1200. Maybe a 50% retracement at $1400 though.

    We just have to wait and see how the current daily cycle plays out.

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  124. Gold below 1300 is just wishful thinking.

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  125. Gary, please forgive me if you have answered this already. But is it possible we have already seen the A-wave, peaking last November? Thus we would be on the verge of entering a new c-wave? Thank you

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  126. The move to a lower low confirms that gold is still stuck in a D-wave. It may or may not have bottomed last week.

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  127. Ooops. Ok Gary thank you for your patience.
    I think ud make a great coach

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  128. Danno,

    No one responds to your predictions because it appears your just learning so inherently the predicitions are of limited value to people who have been doing this many years, your predictions lack confidence and are usually hedged and just in general it's too frequent and too many so the value of each one gets diluted. It doesn't seem your overly serious about this anyways ie. Deleting your predicitions because no one responded? Or asking to be thanked because one of your predictions came true? Really?

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  129. Actually about 1275 is where the 'measure rule' would place gold. But I think Gary is correct to say holding out for anything that low would be a mistake.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p26989721386&a=253184115

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  130. Dan,
    Relax man. You don't have to bash people. I was just being honest. I can do whatever I want to do.

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  131. Eamonn,

    Thats how I have it laid out if gold has indeed bottomed. B-waves dont move below A-waves.

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  132. Right now its best to wait for gold to put in a DCL, it's not running away without us.

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  133. Anyone who is waiting for gold to go to $1400 or lower to buy may get left behind though.

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  134. Snp really couldnt muster up much of a rally with the dollar pullback today...it should crack in the next leg up.

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  135. WW,
    Where do you see the dcl coming in at?
    Looking for another first of July. :)

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  136. at ease,

    What do you mean first of July?

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  137. A little late on this one, but REE has run over 100% on the last 5 trading days. But its DeMark chart lined up. Daily - 2 consecutive Perfected BUY Setup 9's. WEEKLY - recorded a Sequential 13 in the 3rd Week of December. Finally, the MONTHLY recorded a Perfected 9 BUY Setup in December. So, the stock is exploding - whether you believe DeMark mumbo jumbo or not, this shows that it appears to have some power of prediction!
    Weakness in GOOG - it had a Daily Sell Setup 9 last week, and its pretty much down ever since. AAPL getting close to DAILY exhaustion as well. AA reporting tonight is on Bar 8 of 9, but needs a low below the December low to perfect. If it sells off after the earning report, it could be a buy!

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  138. WW.
    Made a lot of money that day when I asked you for next lower MA to exit some positions for the holiday weekend. Turned out to be the low and I got out of the shorts and went long. You may forget July 1st, but I won't! Looking for another one. :)

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  139. at ease,

    Oh I remember :) That was when you covered your short in July on the 100dma when I mentioned gold would be bouncing off it.

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  140. Danno,

    Someone needs to get laid.

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  141. Silver is nicely crawling 4 days in a row over the 10th day MA - support for a big move or final break ? The answer is cose ... :)

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  142. Gary, I'm getting some security error's trying to access the Premium site. Maybe it's just me, but I got a not-trusted certificate error on both my desktop and iPad. Any security problems there?

    ReplyDelete
  143. Gurvir will be installing the new certificate in a couple of days. that should fix the problem.

    ReplyDelete
  144. Gary,

    can you compare CRB and Gold in terms of potential price gain. Question is because at the start of the bull they both were priced the same ~ around 200 in the beginning of 2002

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  145. The CRB is heavily weighted towards energy. Energy already had the largest part of it's run during the last bull market. The big moves are going to occur in the precious metals market from this point on.

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  146. Gold finally heading lower without the snp.

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  147. The whole world is waiting for Alcoa.

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  148. Romeo

    I've had the same problem. I thought it was just me.

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  149. FED: LOCKHART: GIVEN DLR's RESERVE ROLE, US HAS SIGNICANT TIME TO CURB
    DEBT; KEY TO HAVE CREDIBLE, L-T PLAN OF DEBT REDUCTION. WOULDN'T BE
    SURPRISED TO SEE Q1 GDP RETRENCHMENT.


    Complete denial from the FED! The Dollar IS losing is Reserve status, and they are like ostriches head in the sand! Japan and China are already creating an FX Zone between themselves away from the Dollar

    ReplyDelete
  150. Alcoa is a meaningless company with a track record of missing. What the market is waiting on is some indication of whether earnings are going to meet expectations. I suspect by the middle of the week it will decide.

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  151. Yeah...and very soon the market will enter a time band for Mr Bernanke

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  152. Hi all,
    I got the gold price data I was seeking from 2001 to date. Thanks to all who responded
    Don't ask me how I got it - if I told you I'd have to shoot you afterwards.
    Now, time to build my application...

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  153. WW, so you are in the A-wave camp I guess. Time will tell...

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  154. @ Danno - posted January 9, 2012 7:52 AM.

    Sorry, I've never said gold will or even could anywhere near "well below $1,400".

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  155. I am convinced as long as unemployment rate drops and CPI remains flat, it is possible we may see $1200.00 or $1000.00 gold by end of this year.

    As I mentioned on SMT this is not a profit taking event back to the mean but a fundamental change.

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  156. Romeo/Gary, the security exception is due to a self-signed certificate. Either it's a new one your webmaster generated, or ?? Most security certs come from Verisign or some other agency that allows the certificate to be checked. Self-created ones can be just as secure -- I've generated them before -- they just cannot be validated by an external source. It's a lot cheaper and much less hassle go generate one's own. The only problem is if the certificate is the result of a hack, of course...

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  157. Gary, you should confirm with your hosting site that this is OK, esp. since nobody was getting this error before. As Firefox warns:

    If you understand what's going on, you
    can tell Firefox to start trusting this site's identification.
    Even if you trust the site, this error could mean that someone is
    tampering with your connection.


    Chances are it's nothing, but you should be sure for the sake of all the account info & PWs on the site.

    ReplyDelete
  158. Eamonn,

    Gold shouldn't move back below this bottom unless it is still in a D-wave. If you think this bottom was a B-wave bottom than this is the first time in 10+ years that a B-wave moved below an A-wave, it wouldn't be the ABCD pattern then.

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  159. Poly,
    I must have you confused with someone else who was talking to WW a week or two ago. Sorry.

    ReplyDelete
  160. I don't quite understand how 2012 can be the worst year in human history and gold not be sold off with the markets like 2008. I'm sure this question has been asked. Must have missed it. As most people here seem to agree, I must be a little slow.

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  161. A-waves are 1 or 2 daily cycles, with the exception of 2008, during which it was 3.5 daily cycles. Its a tricky time with gold. Wish the c-wave would start soon

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  162. The miners don't seem to think we are still in a d-wave. Even kinross, the second worst of all big miners, is up today.

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  163. Danno,

    2012 will not be the worst year in history. In fact I think it will be a good year for the general market.

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  164. Eamonn,

    The 06' A-wave was 4 Daily Cycles.

    08' D-wave was 7 Daily Cycles.

    ReplyDelete
  165. WW, I'm going to have to send you an email!

    ReplyDelete
  166. Every time I think I'm smart WW jumps in a ruins my day LOL

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  167. Again, B-waves dont move below A-waves. If gold makes a new low then a D-wave is still in effect. If afterwards we just see gold continue to push higher with normal DC and ICL's then the ABCD wave pattern would no longer be.

    ReplyDelete
  168. Sorry Eamonn, definately didnt mean to ruin your day :)
    Email me.

    ReplyDelete
  169. Danno,
    You just don't have a subscription so you don't know the stipulations and conditions.

    ReplyDelete
  170. Anybody here buying Dinar money?....I know your not SB

    ReplyDelete
  171. Gary,

    I have a problem also with the Premium Website...Does it mean that there won't be access for your newsletter tonight?

    ReplyDelete
  172. Haggerty,
    Bought Dinar back in 2004 and 2005. Still holding. Wouldn't really recommend buying much. I'd probably wait for an Iraqi ETF then pile in. Or you can wire money to an Iraqi bank and have them invest the money in their stock market. Go to: InvestorsIraqForum.com. They have all the info.

    ReplyDelete
  173. Haggerty,
    Typo. It's www.investorsiraq.com/

    ReplyDelete
  174. Anyone following platinum?

    Along with Alcoa's outlook could be a good buy for this industrial metal.

    ReplyDelete
  175. TZ-
    I have taken advantage of the lull in trading and moved one of my accounts to Interactive Brokers! I have all of the quotes and research I need.... (only need IB for cheap trades and open trading.) Will probably do ETF's//stocks// options...(and possibly futures) I have traded futures in the past!! my question!! Should I use the Trader Workstation or Webtrader! Any thoughts or opinions!

    ReplyDelete
  176. I am starting to accumulate some US eagle and US Buffalo gold coins. Found a local deal and bought some two weeks ago.

    Does anybody know of a good physical gold IRA?

    ReplyDelete
  177. "Yes I have sold short before. But over the long run I've lost more money than I've made. I just don't bother anymore."

    Too bad. My advice is to learn from someone who knows what they are doing, instead of just following cycles. Maybe you should take some timing pointers from Jim Rogers - he seems to be able to pick almost prefect tops and bottoms regardless of asset class.

    Practice makes it perfect buddy! ;-)

    ReplyDelete
  178. Tiho, Rogers himself admits to be horrible at timing, and is usually early, from what Ive seen.

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  179. jim Rogers just buys and holds through anything and admits he has bad entrys.
    Also he does not give you any buy signals

    ReplyDelete
  180. I see Sophia posted at 1:44 that she was having problems with Gary's main website: me too. Firefox is advising not to turn up there--might be someone disguised as Gary ;)

    Anyone know what might be going on?

    Thanks,
    Vonda

    ReplyDelete
  181. Tiho,
    You have no idea what you are talking about. Were do you come up with this stuff?

    Rogers had to hold his short on FNM and FRE for 5 years before they paid off.

    Please go troll your nonsense somewhere else.

    ReplyDelete
  182. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  183. That's why you are also a billionaire?

    ReplyDelete
  184. I think the crisis is over, at the very least until fall 2012 or even 2013. If I am not mistaken we are at a bottom in housing now (and that is the first time I am thinking and saying that), I believe commodities have bottomed, and I see a bunch of strong reversals in stocks that have shown weakness throughout 2011. All the doom talk for 2012 raises the likelihood of this becoming a great year. Also, I believe that the administration is starting to power this thing up into the election, and we will see a severe correction only after the election. The economic numbers look good enough to get people excited. And mostly people are getting exhausted of the constant negativity and pessimism. I've seen this before, and it's usually when things take off to the upside and leave doomsayers in the dust. In all humbleness, I am getting bullish here, at least on some beaten down stocks and commodities with good long term fundamentals. Not withstanding a moderate (but perhaps swift) correction, I don't see a single reason why the uptrend should falter. There is global printing, some visible improvements in the economy, and no imminent threats. Forget about Europe, nothing is going to happen that that would threaten the global economy, certainly not before later this year anyway. Iran is the only potential lose canon, and I don't think anyone will start a war before election. So, without throwing caution to the wind, I am mildly psyched.

    ReplyDelete

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