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Thursday, January 26, 2012

PORTFOLIO CHANGE

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152 comments:

  1. BOW is huge at the moment. It doesn't appear the big money thinks this profit taking will last.

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  2. Hey Gary,
    When the time posted is recorded below the comment, which time zone does it indicate? Las Vegas time?

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  3. Gary:

    BOW on what? General equities or the gold miners.

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  4. The VIX is showing a nice white candle. Could be up for a few days and give those people looking for a better entry point to deploy their cash

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  5. BoW on SPY 200M"

    200M is huge?? what is normal size?

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  6. Well to be honest 400 would be huge but 200 is the largest we've seen in a while.

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  7. Now stocks are oversold - TV specs are chanting 'we are topping'...

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  8. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  9. Disagree that QE3 has started, the dollar will crater and it is risk on.

    Oil is $110 and food costs are up. No surer way to turn the economy down that to increase food & energy costs while wages stagnate. F. Trahan posits that the short end of the curve is now the CPI/inflation in food & energy. It is a negative sloping curve and will get more negative if the dollar falls like Gar projects.

    The forecasts on this board seem to change with the latest headline. The negative dollar news is out; now comes Greece, Portugal, Iran....

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  10. Black candle on HUI. Hopefully a small red day tomorrow and then up and away. 10dma is also in the cards.

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  11. Wow .. juniors at the close -was that volume from here :)

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  12. By the way, the reason it is good to short is that it is easier to spot over exuberance than it is to figure the next bull market. Plus, in a deleraging, stagflationary economy things tend to go up and down - ie, sideways. I hold my long term investments in real assets (was gold but now 2019 natgas Ks), but have shorted the mkt darlings (NFLX, OPEN, LNKD) when they get 20 P/S ratio, etc. As long as one does not get greedy, it an easy way to make 10 or 20% on a correction...and plow the extra into real assets.

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  13. But what about all those big SoS days in December and early January?

    Seems to me this indicator hasn't been very effective.

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  14. Unknown,

    let me quote this from FOMC January 2012:

    "... The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability."

    If this is not QE3 I don't know what it should be.

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  15. Unknown,

    I hold my long term investments in real assets (was gold but now 2019 natgas Ks)"

    Isn't natgas over-supply ??

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  16. Ivan,

    There are so many ways - announced and unannounced - to devalue/revalue the dollar. My point is that they have to wait for food and energy to fall - otherwise, they will kill the economy.

    Since the FFR is zero-bound, it is worthless. It is better to think of the price of oil as the FFR in this environment.

    Also, the EU CANNOT allow the euro to meaningfully appreciate. The economies are too weak and a strong euro will only accelerate their miseries. I assume the slow response to their troubles is part of their effort to push the euro down. Germany would love a < 1.20 euro to reignite their export sector - just like any good mercantile state.

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  17. Unknown,

    I may say I have seen this before. They will keep it up to speed with inventory and high production output. I know BB wants to devalue USD by 2-4% per year. Unfortunately that is impossible. At one point it will go out of control. At one point the bond holder will start dumping US treasuries...

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  18. As far as the street is concerned the way you guage QE is by lookimg at the size of the Fed's balance sheet. If it expands, you know there was QE. Could they just wire 500billion to an offshore account to buy up treasuries and never put it on their books? Sure, i guess, since they are unauditable.

    Not sure if they release balance sheet numbers quarterly, but they definitley do make that info public.

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  19. oa92,

    Yes, natgas is in over supply. That's why I am buying natgas futures for late 2019 delivery. I am guessing: there is not as much natgas as they say, there may be more onerous regs in devlpt, BigOil wants a low price now as they move fracking regs forward and get govt sponsored infrastructure project approved, global warming, ocean acidification, mercury in fish will only get worse and speed the move off coal, BigOil has few profit ops in elsewhere since govts have nationalized the fields - so the profit is in US resources, more LNG exports, more gas to liquid fuel plant (ck out Pearl in Qatar; billion in profit converting natgas to diesel, jet fuel, etc. - and that is based on $70 oil).

    Takes a long time for these types of changes - so buying Nov/2019 contracts for $5.50 seems like a good idea. If the fed devalues 3 - 5% per year, that gets you close to that price. If the above happen, it goes much higher. Cost less than 10% to hold a futures contract so very little of your capital is tied up. Could keep the other 90% in bonds.

    The number one issue for me was energy content ratio to oil. It is presently about 6:1. Oil usually trades at a premium to natgas cause easier to use and store, but more like two or 3:1. This will not last - the mkt will arbitrage over time.

    I don't believe the gap will narrow by oil coming down. I see the conventional sources are flat while oil has gone from $30 to $100+. I believe in peak cheap oil and a rapidly growing world middle class.

    I think it is amazing you can buy a gallon of gas for $4 and move a 2 ton vehicle 20 miles down the road with it. For $4!? Well, natgas is selling for 1/6th that and it won't last.

    Investing in this for the same reasons many on this board invest in gold. The difference is gold is a fiat currency.

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  20. "That's why I am buying natgas futures for late 2019 delivery."- Unknown

    You're "outta your tits", so to speak. There likely won't be a futures exchange in 2019 (at least not the one you gave your money to), and even if there was, the criminals/bookies will never let you cash in your chips if it's a bonanza. It's ok to make the trade if you feel that is what's called for, but refrain from claiming victory on something that will likely never pay out. Just for starters, I can't imagine you would make money after paying the fattest spreads in existence just to put the trade on.

    It might be a good idea, but your weakness is the execution.

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  21. Unknown's margin deposit might already be stolen, and the crooks have 7 years to spend it before he'll start asking questions!

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  22. I didn't add today.  Nose bleed levels on the  Dow bullish % and  SnP bullish %.  We are overdue for a DCL.  WW might have a good point on dollar support at the 65dma.  I've seen a few failed dollar moves only to reverse.   

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  23. SB,
    You truly have a negative view of our good exchange people, and honest government agencies....blah sorry can't keep a straight face on that one.

    My favourite criminal Ben when asked, why he preferred pcepi vs cpi as a target measure, very straight forward said because the PCEPI is easier to manipulate...since people's spending patterns change as prices go up....

    So as the FED manages inflation numbers, they are free to devastate the country with as much printing as they want going forward....can't afford steak, eat hamburger, can't afford hamburger, eat garbage stew...etc..

    The fact that people can simply listen to this and because he can say it with a straight face is unbelievable to me.

    Ya if prices go up, that isn't inflation since you are poorer and need to buy different things. HUH?

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  24. Anyone picking up REITs like AGNC which pays +19%/year given FEDs guaranteeing flat rates for next 2 years or is everyone going balls deep in metals?

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  25. SB,

    Sounds like some headlines from 1979.

    Just remember - the world rarely ends.

    ...and money has become less physical thru the centuries - barter, precious metals, paper, digital...

    ...and things rarely change - which means, your physical gold (which i am assuming your advocating since you imply world exchanges will go tits up) will likely go thru cycles. To imply it will hit a higher inflation-adjusted level than 1980 might be stretching it. After all, it was just 8 years past being real money back then. Now it is almost 40 years - and there are very FEW leaps of faith are greater than believing gold is worth a thousand or two per oz.

    So you hold your life savings in fiat; I'll hold mine in BTUs. GL

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  26. Unknown,

    Not only am I largely divested from confetti,but you're not holding BTU's like you think. All you own is a long dated option written by people that never have to pay out if they choose not to, just like '79 and last Oct. In the meantime, they have all your money as a deposit, which is funny because it's actually held in fiat form, meaning you're parked in confetti. You can also forget the "regulators" at the CFTC helping you collect, they might even be the ones that sold you the (naked) promise.

    I don't argue that natgas is likely a good investment over time. My observation is that there are very good odds you won't get paid the way you're playing it. What was the spread on those futures you're buying anyway, and what if you want or need to sell next month? Where's the bid?

    Let me know when you get paid, until then we're just speculating. I doubt you collect when you ignore serious risks on the backside.

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  27. Unknown,

    To be honest, I don't believe you made the trades you mention. Even out to 2015, there might be 1 contract/day at most that changes hands.

    You're full of it. :)

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  28. Okay happy days again....back to truth....those that expect to buy in now may get lucky, but the truth is, that we will most likely suffer a drawdown. It might be the big boys, or simply the time to happen. All jokes aside, the FED is lying and continues to lie.

    I am in oil a bit for income, and ag as a spec I have no clue what I am doing play, but PM's are the place to be......further after seeing so many people so pissed off with Gary's reverse, I would say very few are able to withstand the job of making real money. I will debate approach and methods, but if you can't buy and hold during this gold bull due to the fear of a drawdown, you might as well not enter the market.

    And here is a secret fact, this bull is going to get worse in terms of volatilty.

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  29. ww you long yet or still waiting for dcl? I know you intraday trade, but wondering about your longer term set-up.

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  30. Manipulated market? ...depends what you mean by manipulated.

    Gold drove down to its December lows concurrent with news of stronger economic growth (implying less need for FED printing) and a political climate that was increasingly hostile to more QE. This made perfect sense.

    Better-than-expected economic stats and the hostile, anti-FED, political rhetoric only increased in January; yet gold ran up for four weeks straight - without so much as a pause that pierced the 5ema - right into the FED announcement. How do we account for this?

    Gary, you said that things changed when Bernanke opened his mouth the other day. But all that changed with that announcement is that old news was made official and communicated to the unwashed.

    Other John

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  31. John,
    The markets perception changed. That was obvious when we saw the daily cycle low that was forming in the dollar reverse and gold take off.

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  32. There is a battle going on between the dollar's confirmed Rounded Bottom pattern and the unconfirmed Adam & Adam Double Bottom patterns in both Silver and Gold.

    At this point, technically speaking, the dollar has the edge until proved otherwise. Rounded Bottoms are statistically more reliable than A&A Double Bottoms, plus the $USD Rounded Bottom was confirmed when the right rim closed above the left rim.

    Gold would have to close above 1804.40 and silver would have to close above 35.70 (the middle peaks of their respective double bottoms) before their Double Bottom patterns are confirmed, generating a buy signal.

    Of course, there are times when PMs and the dollar rally together... so there's still that.

    Just FYI.

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  33. BTW anyone who went long the dollar when $USD closed above the price of its left rim should have been stopped out, as the dollar may be forming a 'handle'. The next opportunity to go long the dollar would not be until the dollar completed its handle and closed above the right rim.

    So based on everything I just wrote (if one were to base a decision solely on these patterns and no other criteria)... a person would be in cash right now.

    Just techno babble FYI.

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  34. Has the dollar put in a swing low in January since the the beginning of the month?

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  35. Danno,
    In case you haven't noticed breakouts and breakdowns rarely follow-through anymore. You are trying to trade off of patterns that worked 10 and 20 years ago.

    The patterns that work now are buying into breakdowns and selling into breakouts.

    I'm guessing the reason for this is the proliferation of hedge funds managing very large portfolios. In order to get into and out of positions they need liquidity.

    Liquidity happens when support and resistance levels are broken. That's when technical traders are selling or buying. Large funds use this flood of liquidity to get into or out of large positions.

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  36. Hmm. I'll have to check into that Gary. Thanks.

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  37. FWIW now that I know about Gary's impressive work with cycles I would be fairly leery of placing a trade only based on a chart pattern. But I'm not sure I would feel comfortable ignoring them either. Just throwing out what I see.

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  38. SB,

    You're right, there is usually no bid/ask on the very long term natgas contracts. You just start with the closing price, and see what happens. I was in no rush to accumulate - did it over months. The Nov/2019 closed at $5.48 yesterday. If I were still adding, I would put out a bid for $5.50 and leave it. Sometimes an ask will appear 20 cents higher, and I would hit it or move my bid up 10 cents and leave it - for a day, whatever. When a big fish shows up to sell, you can buy tens of contracts.

    I didn't really care about the 10 or 20 cent spread. This is not trade, it is an investment. A way to keep my savings whole, and hopefully earn about 15 to 20% per year. I plan to cash out when natgas is selling at $12 - regardless of when that is.

    As for the contracts not being worth anything due to exchanges breaking down, contracts being voided, etc. - hadn't put a lot of consideration into that and will research further. I figure my main risk is the devept for some new form of low cost baseload energy like fusion. Great for humanity, but for energy speculators...not so much.

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  39. Unknown,

    I agree that natgas is likely a good buy, but futures also don't offer SIPC backing. SIPC only has $1.5 billion to cover investors, so even that is not something I would rely on, but it's still one more stop gap in place.

    To me, the CFTC and futures exchanges have proven enough times they'll change the rules if necessary, that's why I won't play in these times.

    It's also not clear why you need to "buy" the 2019's, when the $ you have at the broker is just a deposit. One could just keep rolling into the new month (better spreads AND liquidity in case you want to exit). Futures accounts are settled up each night anyway, so you get credited or debited daily.

    I didn't mean to be rude, just pointing out some things to consider. Maybe some natgas equities might be a better option?

    Good luck.

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  40. Just a reminder to those in UXG, it's now McEwen Mining, symbol MUX.

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  41. Gary,

    Any thoughts on 13 year old Abbey Watson and her power lifting records (Holding eight different world records for her relatively slight weight class -- 105.75 pounds)? A freak of nature?

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  42. I felt like emailing that girl and telling her not to get carried away. After years of dead lifting my hips don't feel so hot.

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  43. Riley,
    I am waiting for the DCL for sure gains.

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  44. I deadlift all the time (crossfit)... it should be squarely on your hamstrings if done right...why would the hips hurt?

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  45. Gold being in a first DC of an A-wave we should be just a couple days away from a DC top now. Typically about half of the DC is retraced during a DC decline, if gold pushes up to around $1750 a pull back to the 200dma looks good. Will be watching the 150dma also for a shallow DCL.

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  46. Aaron,
    Try putting some plates on the bar.

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  47. WW,

    Super call on the D-Wave bottom being 300 dma. Your frequent "heads-up" posts on what to expect from gold's movements make an excellent guide to know when to add and when to pull-back to miner and metal holdings. Speaking for the other members and myself, thanks very much for sharing your experience. BTW, happy belated birthday! Michael

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  48. Hi WW,

    Do you think this A wave are gonna reach new highs and break the ABCD pattern or expect a new B wave?

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  49. This is the women's 75 kg world champion. Just doing almost the same lifts I was when I was in my prime and at the same body weight as me. Absolutely amazing.

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  50. Miners are trading like a lot of people got left behind. Had to buy 'em when you could.

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  51. I know that at times when we see a strong move in gold like we seen on wednesday that its very easy to believe that gold will never pull back and one is inclined to start chasing....be patient, gold will move into a DCL. If you feel that your absolutely going to miss something and that gold will never see these levels again, take position and be prepared to hold through a DCL.

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  52. GLD RSI is 74, short term overbought.
    I am not going to chase gold & silver here. bought some GOOG today.

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  53. Felipe,

    Still too early to tell, If we see this A-wave blow through the old high and never look back then I would be inclined to think that the mania phase is definitely in effect. Right now we need to stay focused on playing this as a normal A-wave, I dont know about you but I dont plan on holding through a B-wave.

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  54. Michael,

    Thanks alot, appreciate it :)

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  55. What may be more interesting is if miners, already taken a beating, don't follow gold down into the DCL at lower prices.

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  56. I will not add anything to my mining position until we get a close below yesterday's close. Every single black candle on the HUI has been followed up by a lower close at some point within the following days or weeks.

    If I had no position I would take one, but given the black candle, and the fact we are due for a DCL, I would just bite the bullet and be patient before adding more. Risk reward does not favor chasing today, that is for sure.

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  57. You think crossfit is light stuff? We still max you know.

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  58. Keys,

    If gold puts in a DCL before the SPX, we may see that.

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  59. GC,

    A good point..chase knowing the probability is a drawdown...or wait in anguish. I agree with SB, i think many are caught without positions and don't know what to do.

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  60. Gary, her heels are literally touching each other when in the starting position... Ive never seen that! Crazy!

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  61. WW-

    I show gold's 200dma at $1,642. You think it could pull back that far in the DCL?

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  62. Aaron,
    Yes it is a rather unusual pulling position.

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  63. WW,

    If that is true, it really makes for an interesting problem. Imagine being right about Gold's drop, but miners follow the SPX, then as the general stock market drops, miners continue up as gold recovers.

    If that scenerio were to play out, we could see people chasing 10% at the least above today's levels.

    Of course for myself this is purely academic, I am locked in, but for active traders...man do I feel for that mental game

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  64. Rightly or wrongly whenever I see women that are that big and strong I think "juiced.". I know they test, but the temptation to cheat has got to be huge, especially for women where using anabolic steroids gives them an even bigger advantage than with men.

    I pretty much assume every Olympic caliber athelete in a strength or speed sport is juicing. And there's epo and transfusions for the endurance sports.

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  65. Danno said...

    Aaron,
    Try putting some plates on the bar.

    January 27, 2012 7:15 AM


    Dude, that's a bit condescending - I regularly do well over twice my body weight and hips don't hurt. Do you do some mobility work too?

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  66. Give it a decade or two. You'll see.

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  67. Unknown,

    Like I said earlier, the majority of A-wave first daily cycles retrace about half the DC, the 200dma is sitting around that level. Thats assuming that gold tops in a couple days or so and doesn't stretch too far above the 200, the 200 would obviously be much lower then. Keep in mind also that the 200dma will be higher than it is now by the time a DCL is in, especially if this DC runs a normal first daily cycle duration into the high 20's.

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  68. But I think its likely miners have just caught up to gold.

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  69. Yes the level of sports has now progress to the point where there probably isn't a world champion anywhere in the world that isn't enhancing performance with something.

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  70. New lows on the USDX... this is crazy!

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  71. 5 day RSI for the HUI is getting really extended. I really would like that black candle taken care of before seeing it run too much higher. I think there is maybe another 1-2 days max upside in the HUI before some kind of consolidative action. It could just trend sideways and maybe from much higher levels.

    Oh yeah, black candles and gap ups suck.

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  72. Green,
    A black indecision candle isn't unusual at the start of a move as the nervous nellies panic to take profits after a big push higher. They end up getting left behind and have to chase.

    That's exactly what happened today. Instead of fixating on a normal hesitation candlestick, you should probably focus on that massive recognition candlestick and what it portends for the future.

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  73. Gary I hear ya. But look at every single black candle on the daily chart of the HUI. Price always closed lower within a few days or weeks. Every one. I'm not saying the HUi isn't set to go ballistic. And any draw down from here is likely minimal. I suppose it's better to chase sooner rather than later if you are convinced a new bull run is starting...

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  74. The miners were anticipating gold's move into a DCL ahead of gold before Bernanke made gold blast off,now miners had to catch up, so the move to the upside is drastic. Most likely when gold moves into a DCL miners will follow, but although they anticipate a move lower in gold ahead of time, when they have to catch up because that move down in gold didn't materialize and gold popped instead, they usually lag gold's eventual move down, and by the time gold reverses back up the declining miners are halted.

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  75. Not every black candle gets taken out. The reason every one has recently is because the miners have been in a year and a half long consolidation. If that is about to end then there's a good chance we will never see price below that black candle again.

    I think at this point I would worry less about candlesticks and more about the big picture fundamentals. This is a bull market, and we do have an intermediate degree bottom.

    If you want to focus on candlesticks switch your chart to weekly instead of daily.

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  76. Gary, regarding your comment and video link to the lady weight lifter. Do champion weightlifters have phenotypically different muscle fibres under the microscope? Is the the ration of the known muscle fibres altered in these exceptional lifters? Apart from all the training, I'm assuming there is a genetic advantage too?

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  77. Throwing another academic scenario out there...

    miners anticipate an A-wave move and keep surging with the expectation for gold being around 1900-2000 in short order...gold goes into short-term decline...miners start to diverge as gold moves up to 1900, people buy miners thinking they will follow gold, but actually start declining already anticipated the move up and now anticipating a b-wave correction.

    We are only 10% away from the peak in gold....

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  78. smtbullion,
    Elite weightlifters have much more white muscle fibers in proportion to red.

    Weightlifting is a speed sport as opposed to an endurance sport. I remember years ago the Bulgarians claimed to be able to convert some red muscle fibers to white with extremely intense training routines. I don't know if it was ever actually proved though.

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  79. The USD is getting no love from anyone...not even a dead cat bounce... it cant even put in a swing. Sad.

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  80. gary

    "In case you haven't noticed breakouts and breakdowns rarely follow-through anymore. You are trying to trade off of patterns that worked 10 and 20 years ago"

    why do you think this doesn't apply to gdx. hedge fund managers like david einhorn, john griffen, whitney tilson, jean-marie eveillard bot large positions in the q3 between 51 and 54. perhaps they could be unloading into this breakout

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  81. Your genetic composition is really important. For example, I have an 65 y/o uncle who is enormously fat. He is ridiculously fat. All his life he is like this. He had a heath check up recently and it all came back normal. No blood pressure or cholesterol or heart problems.

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  82. Gary,
    Have you found any supplements that are especially helpful.
    The only thing that I have found that made a dramatic difference for me was creatine.

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  83. Aaron --

    $DXY had shortened previous daily cycle.

    Shouldn't be natural to get longer current cycle?

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  84. I have found creatine to have a small effect.

    Basically it comes down to genetics. You either have the right mom and dad or you don't. All the training in the world can't make up for inferior genetics.

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  85. Mike,
    I think we clearly have an intermediate, and D-Wave bottom so the trend should be generally higher for the next couple of months regardless of where profit-taking corrections occur at.

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  86. Good points Gary. Thanks for the reality check.

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  87. DP it very well could. Its just the Euro thats making new highs...the Aussie for instance, not so much... there is a fake out here, and I think its the Euro hype about a Greece agreement. Once thats out of the way, the USD should start a rally.

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  88. Aaron --

    Do you see any time frame for Euro rally?

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  89. nice that weightlifter women look normal unlike some of the gorillas that throw the diskus & hammer...

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  90. Some of the lighter lifters are pretty hot...

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  91. Aaron --

    My estimate for strong news dissipation is 3 days:

    Day 1 -- first strong reaction from pros

    Day 2 -- weaker follow-through from TV couch potatoes watching evening news

    Day 3 -- last small reactions from suckers catching runaway train

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  92. DP, thats very interesting! I myself usually use a 2 day rule when it comes to the FED... very similar to your 3 day rule... we should see the dollar bounce and the Euro exhaust this over done bounce by early next week.

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  93. I believe the "olympic ideal" of ancient times placed an almost exclusive emphasis on performance and results. The concept of cheating was far more restricted than in modern times. Accordingly, the ancients would have gobbled up any performance enhancing substance they could find, but they had access to nothing as potent as we have today. Winning followed closely by death would have been seen as pretty much of an unalloyed, and perhaps even enhanced, triumph.
    The persistence of human nature suggests that the use of performance enhancing drugs cannot be eliminated. I do not mean to imply opposition to sensible efforts at restriction.
    By the way, the modern obsession with team games is rather reminiscent of the ancient fervor for the Blues and the Greens in late Roman or Byzantine times. I am sure they could no more imagine a world without chariot racing than we can imagine a world without football.

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  94. I would like to see gold test the $1770 pivot and put in a DC top, pull back to the 150dma and launch off it to test the highs.

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  95. For those interested, the DAILY DeMark SELL Setups on NDX, SPX, RUT I mentioned yesterday are being erased today with the sell-off. Dow recorded a SELL Setup 9 4 days ago, so it is definitely seeing a reaction the last couple days! However, the SELL in the Euro futures (6E) and BUY in the Dollar futures (DX) has not been erased.

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  96. Looks like this divergence on the True Strength Index that I warned about a couple weeks ago was a sure sign of the dollar having possibly topped, now back in negative territory on the Index.

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  97. Gary,
    I couldn't understand one word Dena, the Swedish gal, said. She must have been talking about stock cycles...

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  98. The last time the dollar printed a negative diveregence on the True Strength Index and dipped back into negative territory it was in an intermediate decline,that when bottoms launches the dollar to new highs.

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  99. I've got the bottom of the $USD 'handle' at about 77.50

    Just say'n.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=10&dy=0&id=p25565408520&a=243271916

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  100. Danno,

    That would be around where the 150dma will be most likely when the dollar puts in an intermediate low.

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  101. "The last time the dollar printed a negative diveregence on the True Strength Index and dipped back into negative territory it was in an intermediate decline,that when bottoms launches the dollar to new highs."

    - WW

    WW:

    There is something fundamental that has bothered me about the Dollar doomsters. Cycles be damned. The Euro is NOT going to survive in its present form..... and Japan, at a 225% debt to GDP ratio, is in even worse shape than Europe. At some point the Euro and the Yen are toast. Probably within months for the Euro but longer for Japan. But not as long as most people think. Japan's demographics are the worst in the world, by far. It is the equivalent of a giant ponzi scheme..... there are more people leaving than new ones coming in. It is a tightly homogenous and zenophic society whose demographics guarantee an economic and currency diaster. Japan posted it's first trade deficit in memory last month.

    My point is that the Dollar is going to be the last man standing, the best looking horse at the glue factory, and I don't see how a sh*tload of foreign money doesn't come running into the Dollar at some point... and their will not be a damn thing Benny can do about it. It will happen, the only question is when.

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  102. Unknown,

    I was actually just going to ask Gary why exactly (other than the Fed) he thinks the dollar's 3 year cycle top is in if the dollar is dipping into a ICL now.

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  103. gary or ww
    any chance that after two stretched intermediate usd cycles of 6 months apiece that we could have a shortened intermediate usd cycle being formed right here

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  104. Why did Tobys link get pulled from 321 gold?

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  105. Mike,

    Its possible, Im actually leaning in that direction now, the move into an ICL now, then another IC to new highs... the intermediate cycle before the last two 20+ ones was short.

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  106. The way things look this SPX DC will probably stretch to around 55 days or so, maybe top on day 45-47 before pulling back to atleast the 50dma.

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  107. Danno, the cross-fit guys lift about the same ... it's just that before and after they can and do go for a 5km sprint, 100s of chin-ups etc and/or any number of intense strength/endurance routines with NO breaks in-between ... COMPLETELY different class of athlete.

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  108. If you lift very heavy weights for years, you will harm your joints. Trust me. The body it not a machine. Its needs a stop loss too or you can and will break it. It was my life for a long time. You will find many athletes in the stock market because they understand intense pressure. Not everyone behind a keyboard is a geek.

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  109. mikezza,
    Because many of those guys are using charts only as an adjunct and when they buy GDX stocks, they see a P/E of 9 (or EV/EBITDA, P/NAV etc) that should be 16-20 for the earnings growth that these stocks are generating. Price thus needs to adjust to reflect that, and in the meantime the E itself is growing because of typically conservative estimates of the gold price in future years.

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  110. I was a body builder my entire life, if you dont take the right joint supplements and give your self proper time to repair your joints will be shot in the long run.

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  111. One tip... don't ever use 'perfect form'. Don't ever go all the way down and all the way up. If you must lift heavy weights stick to the middle portion of the rep. You'll get a much better workout even though fools in the gym may make fun of you.

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  112. hulk
    you nailed it. now that you pointed it out, i can't believe that i didn't think about that before asking it. appreciate it

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  113. ww
    thanks. i guess the action in the spx will confirm if we have a dcl or an icl in the dollar pretty quickly. if the the spx continues higher after the dollar puts in its bottom then there is a good chance that we have one more daily cycle before the icl in spring.

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  114. Unknown,

    I guess when the Greek crisis start to unfolding again with violence probably in March we are gonna know if the dollar top is in.

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  115. Don't count on the dollar collapsing! With another crisis coming, the dollar will be where they run too, again.

    Don't forget, since QE1 was announced, the dollar is up, go figure. That's $2T and 2.5 QE's.

    Gold and equities (long term)will ultimately move via the point of least resistance.
    Gold has done rather well since 2008, even with a NET increase in the dollar.
    Equities will eventually fall, IMO, once the market grasps that earnings are going to stay very flat for a long time. That's because margins are no longer expandable as they're up against historic high levels and growth (revenue) is just not there.

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  116. The MACD Histogram of $SPX has been falling since early January while price has gone straight up. It is a minor warning sign, but something to note.

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  118. http://arum-geld-gold.blogspot.com/

    Some ideas

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  119. almost recapture my losses from the silver crash..


    oh yeah!

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  120. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  121. WW

    In your studies have seen gold break back above the 150 DMA and not backtest (within that cycle)? Anything is possible but I agree with you that the 150 seems like a good level for the DCL if not a backtest sooner. It's a ripe target to run a bunch of stops at 1700 and shake out weak hands chasing the late cycle momentum move.

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  122. Baltic Dry Index dropping....


    Yes yes, I know it is not very predictive but it is almost closing in on the 2008/2009 levels


    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND

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  124. I agree that both the market & PMs have wiggle room to move higher over the next 5-10 trading days. I believe even $USD's Rounding Bottom can weather more downside and still remain intact. There is also the chance that the Rounding Bottom is much larger than I first thought (see green dotted line) and that this move down is not even a handle yet. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=10&dy=0&id=p25565408520&a=243271916

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  125. FYI... 'Rounding Bottoms' are also called Rounding Turns as they do not always occur at bottoms. Quite often they also happen during bull rallies. They can be quite large, spanning many weeks, months, or even years. To spot them it also helps to look at weekly charts.

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  126. UUP *US Dollar* Weekly Chart @ Support Level ?:


    http://screencast.com/t/bBhAWPix4STD

    Gann360

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  127. James R

    8 months of gains to get back 5 days of losses. That was a hell of a week. Good job

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  128. Gann,
    After looking at a lot of charts, it feels too early to say if the dollar will just experience a pullback, or a body slam. Gary may be right when he suggested this market rally could morph into something bigger. Even I revised my target for $SPX a couple of weeks ago from 1323 (which was laughed at and mocked on this board) to 1345. And since then I noticed $INDU had no problem slicing up through its 4+ year downward sloping trendline, so $SPX shouldn't have a problem either, especially with the Facebook IPO coming. Plus UUP has that huge gap way down low that hasn't been filled (not sure why your chart does not show it). It all adds up to further market rally and further dollar weakness in the short term.

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  129. I meant just the news of the Facebook filing, not the actual IPO.

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  130. Fast Trader,
    Be advised the link does not work.

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  131. Was cleaning out old bookmarks and came across this funny mortgage collapse cartoon from 2008/09 timeperiod. For those who never saw:

    docs.google[PUT.DOT.HERE.TO.FIX]com/present/view?skipauth=true&id=ddp4zq7n_0cdjsr4fn

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  132. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  133. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  134. Can anybody tell me in what post TZ has mentioned his opinions about brokers companies and their safeties. As an european investor, i pretend to change my broker, so i would like to read TZ opinions.

    Thks you all and have a nice week.

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