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Tuesday, March 11, 2014

Commodities trade

I'm going to take profits on JO, DBA and DBC for the commodity portfolio in the morning. Sentiment has reached extremes and oil has begun the move down into an intermediate cycle low. This will drag DBC down and it may take DBA with it.

We will need to give oil a few days to finish the move into the cycle low and then we will look to re-enter once oil forms a swing. 

Comments are open.

35 comments:

  1. I'm going to open comments on the blog until the SMT premium site gets back up and running.

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  2. Traders should be prepared for an attempt to break the rally today. Hopefully it will fail.

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  3. I'm prepared for the manipulators to try, but I'm also prepared for us to win.

    Best
    Le Fou

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  4. Are you going to tweet the opening of comments here?

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  5. YOu are referring to the rally in gold i assume, Gary?

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  6. Dollar is helping today. :-)

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    Replies
    1. If we can get the dollar to plunge into the DCL over the next week it would sure help gold to head for $1425.

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  7. Gary,
    Hire new webmaster. This shouldn't take days to fix a problem like that.

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  8. Gary do you think JO/DBA will plunge at open?

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    Replies
    1. It's not down much in the premarket.

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    2. Got rid of it in ++ :) compare always what it could have been the day before, which is in vain

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  9. Gary,

    Are you suggesting continue holding on UNG? Isn't it following oil in its ICL?

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    Replies
    1. The nat gas cycle usually runs independent of oil.

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    2. Are you having your stop at Feb.27 low? Seems we're close to stop out of position.
      Thanks.

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    3. Can anyone explain to me why UNG has lost 95% of it´s value the last 5 years. That couldn´t be because of the contango.

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  10. Gary, where can we put our money now? Do you see and 5-10% down anywhere?

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  11. Some of you shouldnt be trading, seriously. Some of the questions Im seeing make me laugh and cry at the same time.

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    Replies
    1. I see, you started as a full fetched PRO from day one? :)

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  12. The Silver Lag is $1.10 right now. It should be trading at $22.20, just to stay "even" with gold. It usually leads, so the lag is that much greater. An after hours rocket shot will salve these wounds. lmao

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  13. Gary , PM rally doesn't feel too convincing . Gold breaking out but miners and especially silver lag . Do you thing we should hold off on adding the other half of PM position ? And what signals are you looking for to reenter stocks ? Thanx

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    Replies
    1. The lag in miners and silver is a bit concerning. The dollar should still have another 5-6 days to fall so I'm guessing they will catch up later today or later this week.

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  14. Move in gold to breakout high is reaction to Ukraine, as gold shares haven't broken out of their consolidation, and silver is lagging.Both need to confirm move in gold. Gold shares should be reacting violently on heavy volume with breakout of gold. Tech, and cycle analysis probably useless on price of gold as it is reacting to geo - political events.

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    Replies
    1. I doubt it since the Ukraine thing is now old news. Gold was going to break out no matter waht because the dollar was going to breakdown.

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  15. Gary, Ukraine may be old news, but isn't hasn't been resolved yet. With this move in gold, I'd like to see GDX, and HUI break out of their consolidation today on strong volume.

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  16. Gary -
    Do you continue to see the risks you saw in the markets yesterday? Asked another way: What condition(s) will convince you the parabola is still intact?

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  17. I'll just have to take it one day at a time for now.

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  18. I think the move in Gold is in response to the referendum vote on Sunday in Crimea on succeeding from Ukraine, and joining Russia. If this was because of the dollar, I think there would be a bigger move in the other metals, especially silver. I don't know that I have ever seen gold break out and not have the gold shares confirm on the same day, with heavy volume. See how they end the day.

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  19. GDX and HUI at top of consolidation range, If it's going to break out I would think it has to be tomorrow.

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