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Thursday, March 20, 2014

Mar. 20 Morning update

First off a status report on the website. 

I spent about 3 hours on a conference call last night with the developer and transfer agent. The hold up is the subscription files. The original software that runs the subscription plugin is no longer in business so it's impossible to get a re-install or support for that plugin. We tried to figure out someway to automate the process of transferring all of the active subscription files into a new payment plugin but because of certain restrictions there just doesn't appear to be any way to do this without losing some critical information along the way. So unfortunately this leaves me with an incredible mess of having to do this entirely by hand. That means I have to sort through 5000 files, figure out which ones are active and which ones are inactive. Figure out who is monthly, who is biannaul and who is annual. Then once I get all of that done we can migrate the active files into the new subscription system. 

This going to be a tedious process that will probably take at least 2-3 weeks. In the meantime we are going to reactivate the site as is. Everything should still be running fine the only problem is the malware spam links on the subscription page. 

During this process I'm going to have to assign a temporary password to everyone's account so that I can get in and check the status of the account. At some point over the next 2-4 weeks you will get an email from me with your temporary password. So if one day you try to log in and can't, check your email to see if you have been assigned your temporary password (don't forget to check your spam filters). 

Sometime this evening the site should go back live and I'm expecting to publish tonight's report back on the premium site barring some unseen difficulty. 

Now on to the morning report:

As of this morning gold is trying to bounce off the intermediate trend line. If the intermediate cycle is still advancing this should mark the bottom of the daily cycle decline. 



We're going to have to see if this trend line holds through the rest of the day and whether or not we get a swing tomorrow. 

Now for the dollar:

It's pretty clear today that the dollar has begun a new intermediate cycle. 




That may or may not force an intermediate top in gold. The knee jerk reaction would be to assume that since the dollar is probably going to rally for a month or more that gold will automatically drop during this period. I'm not going to make that assumption just yet because gold can, and has rallied right along with the dollar from time to time, just like stocks have rallied along with the dollar. All a rising dollar means is that the euro or yen is being printed more aggressively at the moment. It has no bearing on inflation or deflation.  

For now we need to see if the trend line holds today and then if gold forms a swing tomorrow despite the dollar rally.

Gary

36 comments:

  1. Gary,
    So the dollar which was expected to really crap out here is in a new ICL. That seems frightening considering the way it has rallied the last twenty four hours. Could you explain this in terms of the expected dollar weakness you saw in the next six months.

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    Replies
    1. I still think the dollar has to have a three year cycle low sometime this year. but it may turn out the global CB's are intent on holding currency crosses in a range so we may not get a big drop in the dollar index. It may be the the three year cycle low just manifests as a commodity spike but not so much as a dollar index collapse.

      Delete
  2. Gary -

    Two points:

    1) With a slightly rising IT line (as it appears from your graph), is pog 1,318 still the break-even point?
    2) Assuming we will all operate on the "honor system", would it help your subscription management dilemma is we each e-mailed you with our specific subscription terms - maybe saving you many hours of "sorting?"
    Thanks for your hard work. If I lived in Vegas, I'd offer my "hands-on" assistance.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There is other data I have to check so it doesn't help much. I may try to have everyone email me a request for the temp password and have them change it themselves in the profile link. That would speed up the process a bit. I'll decide tonight after we go back online if I think this would help.

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  3. Gary,
    What I meant to say was that you thought the dollar might have two or so days to react out of the Fomc meeting, why is it now looking like a new ICL?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The rally is too powerful to be a final daily cycle.

      Delete
  4. Gary,
    So would that not confirm gold is going lower?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What I meant to say is the rally is too powerful. It is saying we just saw an ICL. But like I said that doesn't necessarily mean gold has to go down.

      Delete
  5. Gary, looks like the miners believe metals are going up?

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  6. Here is another interesting observation I came across. Look at BB width on the SPX weekly. Last time we were this narrow was right before the 2011 sell off. Volatility is getting ready to spike! Not really an exact timing tool, but a top is very nearby if not already in (my opinion being the latter).

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  7. We should have a nice candel reversal by the close, wash and rinse cylce related to options expiry caused this selling and ironically we hit the IC line....buckle up for a big ride up next 2 weeks

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  8. Gary,
    I wonder if subscribers can help you with the tedious process, by sending in there expiration dates. Like asking bi annuals to do it at one time and yearly subscribers another.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Good idea... Gary, I can login the premium website now with my existing credential and see all my subscription info. Would gladly send you my info to save you time.

      Delete
    2. I came in too, than it should be a simple job to retrieve this info from the DB 1 hour max.

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    3. Concord -

      See my question to Gary at 6:34 AM today and Gary's response.

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    4. That might speed things up. Let's get the site back up and running and then I'll try to determine the quickest way to do this.

      Delete
    5. Seems your Suma plugin works just fine

      Delete
  9. Gary, would gold rally hard from the bottom of this Intermediate trend line? Time to buy the miners (GDX/GDXJ)?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. At least so far it looks like we are getting a DCL today. Of course we need to see how the day closes.

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    2. Gary,
      This upside move in gold from 1320 to 1332, is not a swing? Sorry, I don't know the exact meaning of the word.
      Should we buy miners today, before the close, or wait for tomorrow?

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    3. Gold made a lower low today so it can't form a swing today. The earliest a swing can occur will be tomorrow.

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    4. theofilos,

      A swing is a change in direction. When a stock is moving down that means lower highs and lower lows. In order for a swing to moving up you need to see a higher low and a higher high. That's called a swing low. The reverse process applies for a stock moving up. That's called a swing high. So Gold can't form a swing low today because it made a lower low when it needed to form a higher low.

      Good trading,
      Le Fou

      Delete
  10. Daily commentary.

    http://www.kereport.com/2014/03/20/wait-period-metals-dollar/

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  11. Palladium is clearly putting in a cycle low today. That bodes well for the rest of the sector.

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  12. Gary- Just a suggestion to help with the subscriber data, etc. What do you think about offering all subs to re-subscribe at a discount? I am not currently a subscriber, and I'd come back if you did that. This way, you don't have to go through all of your data, and we get a discount. Win-win.

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  13. Gary -- any thoughts on getting back into the SM here, or just waiting for a DCL?

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  14. Okay, understood. Approximately when do we expect the drop into the DCL for stocks to begin?

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  15. Gary. I know you want to load up on PM after this IC bottoms but can you take a quick look at SLV Jan 2015 Leaps ? Don't they look cheap right now ? 25$ strike is 60 cents now . Let me know what you think . Thanx

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  16. Gary, any thoughts on re-entering softs? Thanks.

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  17. Gary,

    Isn't it important that GDX broke intermediate trend line yesterday? I thought you've always classified it as having predictive capability in GOLD direction.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Haha POG manipulated up for a change

    ReplyDelete

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