In April the 200 WMA acted as resistance and turned the market down into the extended multi-month correction. Now the market has regained that important resistance level. I have my doubts that it will spend very long below that level if at all now that it has been recovered.
I've been harping all along on the fact that we needed to see an "obvious" correction before we could consider that we have a move into a daily cycle low. We now have it and it is taking the form of a bull flag on mild volume.
Usually a bull flag will break sharply higher as it is normally a bullish pattern. Unless we get a sharp break down out of the flag traders need to stay nimble as we could put in a bottom at any time. A swing low this late in the daily cycle will have high odds of marking a bottom.
By the way, my good friend Doc, who most of you are familiar with either from his blog or from the insightful comments he posts in the SMT comments area, has offered a discounted rate for his newsletter to SMT readers. You can go here to take advantage of his offer thru Thanksgiving weekend. He might even buy me a chicken burrito or two if you sign up ;-)
http://www.thedocument.com/members/smt.cfm
Hey Gary,
ReplyDeleteI've been looking at previous average daily cycle declines from the previous highs hit in that cycle.
It seems that the low end is 4%, high end, around 7%. 4% lower from our 1225 SPY recently hit would bring us to 1176. This is all just pure guesstimate obviously but do you think average daily cycle declines hold merit, if so do you have different stats than me for the ranges (I've just been looking at the last 2-3 year time frame).
Also, one more question, what is an extreme, but in the realm of possibility, stretch for a mining share at the bull top? Even if SLW were to fill its Nov. 3rd gap, it would still be a little over 50% higher than its 200 dma. Have you witnessed, or would you put out of the question, an equity such as SLW hitting 115 or 150 or 175% above its 200 dma? Thanks Gary.
ReplyDeleteI think if you want to make the market fit an average you are probably wasting your time. As soon as a swing low forms one probably better be prepared to get long.
ReplyDeleteThe 3 day RSI is already oversold and the 5 days is on the verge and will probably reach that level is todays closes down.
You can always put a stop below the intraday low to protect the trade in case the market throws a curveball.
Robert,
ReplyDeleteSomething as liquid as SLW will probably not stretch that far. More likely SLW will underperform and chop sideways for a while to let the 200 catch up, just like it did for most of Oct.
I know I should just be paying attention to sentiment over numbers, but how hard is it to throw out numbers in regard to a stock market and just focus on emotions? HARD, but I'm getting there Gary with your help.
ReplyDeleteGauging by my own emotions, to buy the gap down today in mining shares would be too easy, again, but its getting there, I think one more gap down after that, or possibly, max, a third would be the pain threshold for people on the other side sitting there with their shares. We'll see. But I would bet a burrito we'll get another gap down in everything after tomorrow's gap, but I sure you wouldn't make this bet...
What about a mining equity less liquid? What are, if you care to put numbers to these things, realistic 200 dma stretches for a C-wave top on miners?
ReplyDeleteby "tomorrow's" gap, I mean today, 11/16.
ReplyDeleteAt a C-wave top we will probably see the HUI stretched 40-60% above the 200. 60% is about as far as an index can ever stretch.
ReplyDeleteBut we could see some low volume juniors stretch 200-300%.
Just to let you know, I've played the last two daily cycles that were supposed to come and never did wrong, and I should have probably avoided this one but I thought that if Gary's right and cycles never fail then we must be FINALLY getting one, and sure enough this one is paying off. I unloaded 90% of my mining shares, and then shorted with 50% of that equity, mostly energy shorts b/c they had run so high.
ReplyDeleteThe last few days have made this SMT vastly worthwhile. Thanks G-Man!
Robert,
ReplyDeleteYou are using the wrong strategy to try and pick a bottom. To pick a bottom you need to hit some kind of significant level. ie. a moving average or support zone.
For gold the clear bottom trigger is if the dollar tags 80. Unless that happens you just sit on your hands and wait for a swing low.
One or the other will occur and which ever comes first is your signal to buy.
Robert,
ReplyDeleteIf it was me I would cover the shorts into today's gap and then just wait patiently for the buy signal in gold.
Okay. Those are very nice NUMBERS to potentially look for :).
ReplyDeleteEnjoy Hawaii Gray, take some good surfer pics if you can.
-Robert
Robert,
ReplyDeleterecently (and we'renot even at the top of the c-wave ) NG got 100% above its 200ma ..so I sold it and it just went sideways pretty much since then...so selling the top is tough/tricky,so when Gary calls close enough to the top I will prob sell 75% to avoid the dreaded start of the d-wave.
oh...and the other 25% I will foolishly try to ride for another day or two in case it gets crazier than we think to the upside...but I will be mostly out :)
ReplyDeleteI'm going out on a limb on this one to be honest Gary. I'm just going to try and pick a bottom based on panic and hysteria. That will obviously coincide with different support levels like dxy 80. I haven't done this before but have watched myself and how I feel on daily cycle highs (like the other day when you said you had a record number of hits here and that turned out to be a cycle high).
ReplyDeleteI know when this low comes in the volume on this blog will be high again and many people will be complaining to people like you and Jim Sinclair (it's funny you could just trade of Jim's commentary- everytime a cycle hits its low in gold the guy gets soooo many emails he has to post for everyone to chill out and that gold is going to $1650 like he predicted 5 years ago or so with his million dollar bet).
The thing is is that let's say I get into mining equities when gold is at $1335 or so (that would be sweet!), and then gold throws a curve ball and goes below $1315, well then if I believe (based on your insights) that we are going into a intermediate decline I'll get out with a few percent loss.
Now,
ReplyDeleteI guess I'm fighting over a few percentage gain in your eyes, but in my eyes, I just avoided a 15% mining equities or thereabouts correction, and instead shorted energy equities which I'll probably make 5% of my portfolio by doing, which will add 20% shares gained in mining equities. That would be a sweet trade IMO, but like I said, this is just making up for the last two failed attempts to short what we thought were daily cycle tops.
In the end Gary's strategy definitely outdoes everything, hands down.
But if you're 23 like I am, I'm just getting my feet wet in these markets, and I can't help myself from trying to out due the rest.
The best point I've taken lately, is the most important thing in the market is just to STAY IN. It is most important just to be able to stay in the game. I took this advice and I don't nearly risk what I used to...
ReplyDeleteproducer price index .....up 0.4% with a little slight of hand , that is haha
ReplyDeleteAlex, that is a good plan, I plan on doing the same. I bet you it works out! :)
ReplyDeleteRobert,
ReplyDeleteWhat you are describing is an intermediate low. I don't think we are in that kind of scenario yet.
This should just be a daily cycle low and those tend to bottom BEFORE the market expects. It's how the bull manages to leave everyone behind as another leg higher gets started.
In on gold around 1355 with a small stop.
ReplyDeleteThat is a good to know Gary, and yes it makes perfect sense.
ReplyDeleteI probably will start phasing into mining shares today. The trade has already been a success might as well close it that way. Thanks G-Man for the smack on the head...
It's funny b/c on Thursday night I was thinking to myself if I could control the markets what would I do to buck people off gold right now? I then thought to myself, tomorrow, Friday, I would pound it down, then on Monday morning I'd gap it up, hold it there for awhile, and then in the afternoon pound it again. I was like, how many people could handle that? Interesting isn't it?
ReplyDeleteThose thoughts came knowing we were in the midst of a daily cycle decline, I could have never come up with this any other way...
ReplyDeleteRobert
ReplyDeletealso Gary rides the gold bull for all of wave c up for the most part and does great...so I ride a core position and trade a good chunk too...selling when it gets too heated and trying to get back in at a decent price on pullbacks.
I RARELY get the bottom, but when these stocks bounce out of the bottom , they pass my buy price that day often.
example ,I bought 1/2 position in EXK yesterday after selling recently...it MAY go down to $5.50 or even $5.00, but I expect a huge leg up when buying starts, so I'm 1/2 in and using today to look for more entry ($5.50?? 2day m.a.?? etc)
If I were a betting man on stupid shit,
ReplyDeleteI'd bet that we gap down at the beginning of today, and gap down further at the end of the day.
Then tomorrow we gap down again, and go sideways for the remainder of the day or possibly reverse right up.
But after the gap down tomorrow, followed by two gap downs today, that would mark the bottom.
If your sitting with shares, wouldn't that make you quiver? If I was a thief trying to make you as nervous as possibly possible to take something from you, that is how I'd play your emotions.
Chances are high I'm wrong, but I've been right very frequently using this method before.
Why not just have to patience to follow the plan.
ReplyDeleteIf the dollar tags 80 buy. Otherwise wait for a swing low. A swing will get you in on day one of the cycle and by waiting you avoid a potential drawdown that could be substantial if this does turn out to be an intermediate top.(which I think is unlikely)
...oops , my post meany 20 day m.a.
ReplyDeleteI use 3 day,10 day, 20 day 34,and 50 and 200 for reference. :)
ok, going to get a coffee..i DO NOT use a 3 day m.a. ----I use a 3 rsi. what ever happen to me 'previewing' what I write!! :) sorry
ReplyDeleteI'm going to enter EXK pretty big, their P/E should move from 120s or so now to 13 or so next quarter! DAMN!
ReplyDeleteIn and ideal world I'd like to get em back to 4.7x's but I have to kick myself and remember this is the DAILY cycle not INTERMEDIATE. I don't think it can possibly get to high 4s.
Then again the last run was pretty extreme thanks to QE2, so I am expecting a reasonable correction. Nonetheless entering after another gap down is almost a fail-less strategy IMO.
I still think there is more pounding ahead. But I counted my gold and silver yesterday, and I was relieved to see that despite what the market has been saying, it was all still there...It didn't shrink at all. :)
ReplyDeleteFunny how we get so scared over something that is being priced in toilet paper. Now instead of 1400 pieces of toilet paper, I can only get 1350 pieces...ahhh.
There are only two ways out of the USD debt crisis. US prints money to pay off its debt, PM are good. Or the US for some reason decides to default; if a world reserve currency defaults what do you think will happen to the price of gold?
I guess the third argument is that we grow out of it. From what I read the US is close to 100 trillion dollars in debt(off balance sheet stuff included), the best and brightest are leaving due to higher taxes, and the US's competitive advantage is eating. Most likely another phony war would take place before this; and war would do what to gold?
Can't say I am happy with the country at all, but unless the people rise up and create a true republic I don't see any change. But when scooters become a norm for the obese, I don't think anybody will be rising up soon.
All this to say nothing has changed to the fundamental story. :)
Robert,
ReplyDeleteNever, never, never, never enter an individual miner BIG. Company specific risk can destroy your portfolio. IF EXK were to have a mine flood your ride on the secular bull would be over.
The only thing you can take a big position in is ETF's. If you are going to buy individual miners never use more than 5% of your portfolio, with the possible exception of SLW becasue it's not actually a miner.
Even then 15% is probably the max I would put into SLW.
That's probably the plan I should follow especially b/c my largest short is oil and that is usually the last entity to turn either way, so if I were to wait for the swing low oil would probably still be declining.
ReplyDeleteBut wouldn't it be more fun getting shares cheaper by 3-4% than you Gary? I need to catch up to all your years of immense profits ;)
Maybe I'm wrong , but I'd like to see an a-b-c up move in EXK before a more severe correction in December. the daily chart looks like a nice flag pattern..could lead to a double top (retesting that high volume high) or a huge a-b-c up....their earnings do seem to be getting better every quarter.
ReplyDeleteTrust me I've made this same mistake before. Instead of catching up you will just go deeper in the hole.
ReplyDeleteGo take a cold shower and cool off your testosterone so you can think logically :)
Gary,
ReplyDeleteso true...earthquakes and natural disasters are in the news daily , and worldwide seems no real untouchable place. all miners have that level of company risk.
one big earthquake and 'earnings' turn to losses... spent repairing and rescue
however...as a trader, I cant live in constant fear...its all money mngmnt , and my risk/miner is appropriate for my account.
ReplyDeleteI trade stocks , not just I have my own basket of miners , so I dont buy & hold etf's
Advice on this blog is always good and much appreciated, especially Gary...yoyr advice on leverage!
9.28 a.m.
ReplyDeleteGarys 'gap down' theory still in place according to the futures ( still down )
ding * ding * ding * ding* !! : )
Gary,
ReplyDeleteShould we have a buy order for SLW at 30 (after that gap gets filled) or wait for a swing low?
There is no right or wrong answer to that one. You can buy on the gap fill but that doesn't mean it will be the bottom.
ReplyDeleteI'm going to wait for either a swing in gold or a tag of 80 on the dollar myself.
Gary
ReplyDeleteI know that you don't think this is an intermediate low in the $, but this sure is looking analogous to the low in Nov of '07 (which was an interm and yearly low, if I'm not mistaken, but straighten me out if so).
The $ then rolled over into the 3 yr low in Mar '08. Gold consolidated nicely during that dollar rally and then launched into the second half of the c wave.
Whatya think?
I think if the dollar has put in an intermediate low then stocks and gold have put in an intermediate top.
ReplyDeleteAnd if stocks have put in an intermediate top then where is the SoS?
I also don't think the dollar has much hope of regaining 80, maybe for the duration of the secular bear. If this is an intermediate bottom then the dollar should be able to easily take out the 80 pivot.
I decided to enter half my PM positions this morning. Can't go wrong basically in this bull.
ReplyDeleteCarlos we definitely hit a major top in gold/silver. Sell your shares immediately or just transfer them to a specific Schwab account (I have to find it, but email me in a few minutes and I'll have it by then).
ReplyDeleteThis account has many perks.
Carlos,
ReplyDeleteI've given you a very good plan to follow. It will keep you in if this is just a daily cycle correction and you will ride the next wave up. If this is an intermediate correction the plan will get you out into strength and you will avoid having to ride an intermediate cycle down.
Why in the world would you want to screw up a perfectly good plan by freaking out and selling into a daily cycle low?
I very much like the nervous nellies on here this morning. Thanks for coming out of the woodwork- I know you couldn't help it!!!
ReplyDeleteWhat are you worried about. The secualr bull is intact. The C-wave is intact. If you go on vacation for a couple of months you will come home with a lot more net worth than when you left.
ReplyDeleteThe only way to screw that up is to lose sight of the big picture and let your emotions sabotage you.
Alright Gary, Added a nice 10000+ silver mining shares this AM. Locked and absolutely loaded. Dry powder still available for a deeper pullback. C-wave, blow-off top, parabolic euphoria here we f'in come! Get ready for the Vegas mexican gift certificates to start pouring in in the coming months. Forget sub 250 category for awhile Gary!
ReplyDeleteROBERT,
ReplyDelete>I'd bet that we gap down at the beginning of today, and gap down further at the end of the day.
>Then tomorrow we gap down again, and go sideways for the remainder of the day or possibly reverse right up.
>But after the gap down tomorrow, followed by two gap downs today, that would mark the bottom.
I agree with your scenario, except it will also have a corkscrew with a half-twist gainer off the back wall at 1:36pm on the second day, but probably before the "reverse right up"
PS: I love the two gap downs on the first day. One hell of a formation.
:-)
I wonder if Gary remembers the scared guy that was threatening to kill him? LOL!! That was hilarious, if not a little spooky. Nothing like total lack of control over one's emotions. :)
ReplyDeleteBring in the trolls, G-Train. We're nearing the time they should be slobbering all over themselves.
I'm just not sensing much panic yet. Seems lower prices to come in the short term will present some good prices to add.
ReplyDeleteWe need a troll meter.
So what do you think about the parallel to the late '07 low in the dollar? Wasn't that a yearly (and interm) low? If not then where was it?
ReplyDeleteDon't misunderstand me here, I'm NOT being argumentative here, really. I'm just trying to learn and understand the cycles better.
It just seems like pretty much exactly the set up we've been expecting here for the dollar; an interm/yearly low, then a big, but failed, bounce to roll over into the 3 yr low.
what scared me the most ( I'm actually not afraid :)
ReplyDeleteis the link to The Document that you put up...I read it quickly , so maybe I read itr wrong, but he seems to do cycles too...only his bottoms dont match yours and his tops called the top already (not entire c-wave)
he says gold miners % bullish is extreme and a deeper correction is likely now. Thats what makes a mkt a mkt , I guess...
maybe I read it wrong, but its like a showdown :)
Do you think this is `07?
ReplyDeleteI'm pretty sure it's 2010 so what happened in `07 is kind of meaningless don't you think?
The recent leaders like NG and SLW have more potential downside on the charts.
ReplyDeleteYou are assuming Doc's top call is correct.
ReplyDeleteWe don't know yet. I think it's just a daily cycle top. He thinks it's an intermediate top.
We will know which one of us is correct when we get the bounce out of the daily cycle low. If we make new highs then Doc is going to owe me another burrito. If we fail to make a new high and roll over into a deeper correction then we will be back to even on the burrito score.
Although when I pull out even further, looking still at a weekly chart, that bounce looks kind of wimpy for a significant bottom like the yearly/interm would be. But I don't know.
ReplyDeleteI'm just trying to focus on the big picture here and try to get a better grasp of the cycles.
Gary
ReplyDeleteI think the next bet should be ...
( even though Burritos are great)
That if Docs call is wrong , he posts on his sight that his call was early and yours was correct , with a link to your blog :)
I mean really , I read his call and it conflicts with yours, this IS a showdown in cycle timing
all in good fun , of course :)
I realize that it's not '07, and I knew that response was coming, from somebody. And I know that these things don't play out just as in the past. But just as the A-B-C-D pattern in the gold bull gives us a guide, and the big picture cycles too, we can learn a bit from the past.
ReplyDeleteI'm just trying to learn some more, not challenging your diagnosis of where we are. Believe me, I didn't sell anything, so I'm on board with your plan.
oh...and I'm NOT assuming Docs call is correct...
ReplyDeleteI am assuming Gary's call is correct , and I have placed money old turkey to prove it.
I believe this dollar is weak on its bounce..it should have blasted through that 50 dma i.m.h.o.
The key IMO to the dollar cycle is that the intermediate cycle is still very short. That's not what I would expect at an intermediate and yearly cycle low. The public opinion poll only dropped to 29% bullish. It's been as low as 22% at prior yearly cycle lows. Again not what I would expect at a yearly cycle low in the beginning stages of a dollar crisis.
ReplyDeleteThe recent decline didnt' even drop down to any kind of significant support level. As a matter of fact it broke through the uptrend line from the 08 3 year low. Again not what I would expect at a major cycle low.
And finally if the dollar had put in an intermediate low then where is the SoS numbers?
Down volume is at about 80%. If we can push that up to 90% by the end of the day that would be one more sign I was looking for to happen at or close to the cycle low.
ReplyDeleteIt would be nice if the markets can punish the bottom fishers today with a nice gap lower in the morning. At that point I'd feel like I had to put the rest of my money to work, swing low or not.
ReplyDeletePerhaps a catalyst like an unforeseen news shocker after the close? :)
ReplyDeleteGary, if the stop around $1315 would get hit, what is your best guess as to how low gold or miners might drop before they level out?
ReplyDeleteI understand you'd sell a bounce first, but take a guess on the potential downside for HUI and gold.
33M BoW on GLD so far...
ReplyDeleteWell, my target on my shorts was SPX 1180 and we are just about there. I am afraid to cover them though, as they have cushioned the recent losses in my PM stuff (covered my amzn this morning). Maybe I'll wait for the swing low on gold or a stock panic reading (put call ratio, lower BB, etc.) What to do, what to do...
ReplyDeleteOut gold position. We've now gone lower than my belief and odds of intermediate top being in are higher in my book.
ReplyDeleteGary... Could the dollar be driven higher (higher than normally expected) not only by a typical daily cycle but also by two extraordinary influences of PIIGS default or debt haircut (money leaving the Euro) and the Republicans posturing about slowing QE2.
ReplyDeleteMore than 10:1 down on volume and some BoW coming into the SPYs.
ReplyDeletegary,
ReplyDeletewhere do you get the selling strength numbers or buying weakness numbers? you say down pressure is about 80%, where did you get that number from?
I sense tension in this room, LOL. Relax and focus people, it's all playing to script.....for now :)
ReplyDeleteThere's a BB crash trade (as outlined in Gary's terminology page) setting up today in the QQQQ/NDX/COMP. If we stay at the low of the day it will be good. Could get there in the other ETFs/Indexes if we get some further weakness. They're just above the lower BB.
ReplyDeleteCould mean a short bounce that fails, or the daily cycle low. Depends upon whether you favor Gary's or doc's interpretation here. :-)
Karl,
ReplyDeleteSure anything could happen, but I doubt it. The down trend in the dollar is too powerful. Big money is going to be looking to get back on the secular trend. The logical place to do that would be at 80 on the dollar index.
Ben,
I have no earthly clue. I just follow my plan.
H,
You can find the SoS numbers in the wall street journal and I just happened to here the volume number on CNBC.
No tension here, Poly. This looks great to me!
ReplyDeleteThe reason I inquired about potential downside is that I wondered if the red line he drew in last night's report was an arbitrary guess, or did he use fibonacci's to arrive at that potential?
This is presenting a beautiful setup, IMO.
It would be nice to see SLV close it's gap down at $27.30 or so! :)
ReplyDeleteThe difference in Doc and my view isn't in a short term bounce. I think we both understand that stocks and gold are working their way into a daily cycle low.
ReplyDeleteThe difference is in that I think the bounce out of that low will go on to make new highs whereas Doc thinks it will fail and roll over into further weakness and an intermediate degree correction.
I agree this is setting up very nicely. The late comers are panicking, the gold bubble articles are rampant, the over bought indicators have cleared, the gaps have been filled and we're down some 10% max on the miners.
ReplyDeleteI think today could end up being a 90% down day and a Dow 200 down day, which can only help the cause. Silver bullion is essentially back in the steep uptrend channel after shooting to high.
Any guesses to how low silver will go here?
ReplyDeleteDo the opposite of TZ, it works everytime.
ReplyDeleteWhat the hell do you follow TZ, MarketWatch?
Heres a link for the up/down volume.
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/advances
It shows 7-to1 (87% to 13%) so not sure where people are getting 10-to-1??
Caveat: Gary has said the ONLY stock/etf on the BoW or SoS list that has any meaning for predictive value is SPY.
ReplyDeleteThat said, however, I noticed that we had a large number (60 some million) on GLD on the SoS list at the recent top in gold.
Today we have GLD on the BoW list to the tune of 35 million (and it's still early in the day, so we'll have to see where that number ends up at end of day).
We'll see whether that's an indication of big money coming back into the gold market and we're nearing the daily cycle low.
You're not going to get much better than this, HUI at 529 on 11/16/10.
ReplyDeleteIf the S&P can end the day here it will trigger a Bollinger band crash trade and push the 5 day RSI into oversold territory. Both conditions we often see at or very close to daily cycle lows.
ReplyDeletePC,
ReplyDeleteJust go back and test every intermediate top ond bottom for GLD and see if the money flow data has any significant predictive value.
I haven't tested the data for GLD so who knows maybe it does have predictive value. Although I suspect it won't be a perfect timing device for GLD anymore than it is for the general stock market.
I never thought I would say it, but another day of this and the $HUI will be approaching over sold.
ReplyDelete$HUI fast approaching it's 50 day where it has found support before. If this c-wave is in tact you would expect that 50day to hold, IMO.
P.C.
ReplyDeleteI love the caveat disclaimer....haha....beat 'em to the punch because you would have gotten 20 replies saying justthat :)
Yeah I understand that Gary. I didn't state it very well, no doubt.
ReplyDeleteGary: As much time as you have put into learning how to trade gold, I am surprised that you have never studied money flow and GLD. You have done so for QQQ and DIA (if I remember) for stock timing. If I may, seems to me something maybe you should do instead of PC since it's a tool you already use (?) Might be something useful to add to the arsenal of indicators.
ReplyDeleteGary
ReplyDeleteIs it possible gold is now entered consolidation in T1 pattern? Any sign of that?
I'd like to be clear that I have NOT called an intermediate top in stocks, only an intermediate low on the dollar. The point where Gary and I disagree is that those two developments have to occur together. I will point out, however, that there is no way on earth I would want to be long the general stock market with dumb money sentiment running high and the bond market collapsing. Bonds could very well drag stocks into an intermediate decline, but we don't have confirmation, yet.
ReplyDeleteAs for gold, I said that I would not want to be leveraged long with gold miners bullish percent at record levels. I think the past few days' action has vindicated this view. That said, today's action in gold has provided a strong signal within my system that we are, indeed, in a intermediate decline. Given the current timing of the intermediate cycle, it should find a low either at the end of the current daily cycle or the next. In other words, we'll get an intermediate low in the next two weeks OR 5-8 weeks from now, depending on how long the current daily cycle stretches.
There's definitely something going on with silver. Down barely 1% with everything else falling hard.
ReplyDeleteLet me put it this way I think the current dollar daily cycle will roll over soon and make new lows before bottoming. That will put a bottom in for stocks and gold and we will see one more daily cycle higher in everything into the Christmas season.
ReplyDeleteWell stocks will have a half cycle higher before rolling over into their intermeidate low.
Thanks, Gary.
ReplyDeleteI will try to go back and look at tops and bottoms in gold and see whether GLD showed up on the BoW/SoS lists near those turning points. Probably won't get to it for a week or so, big day coming up for me on Saturday.
And yes, it would not be a signal that you'd use all by itself, but it might turn out to be useful for confirmation, something we could use along with your cycle analysis and other tools.
PC: If you do the search for GLD and BoW, please post dates and BoW readings along with the gold prices so we can see what happened and look at the charts ourselves. Thanks! Or send me an email. Great that you'll be doing this.
ReplyDeleteDown Volume NYSE
ReplyDelete1,610,116,070 (90%)
GARY,
ReplyDeleteMay i suggest you stop calling $1315 a "stop". You are throwing around a word with a specific meaning in the industry in a way that is different.
May I suggest, perhaps, something like "$1315 is my alert point" or "plan B indicator" or something.
So SO many people keep misinterpreting and working on your use of that "stop" on gold. (Especially new people coming to the site) that you would be benefited with a wording change.
imo
Gary,
ReplyDeleteI got it.
Besides $1315 do not violate, gap down by huge volumn after making new high.Do you think current gold daily cycle is normal? 1315-1424-1335 now.Most strong trend correct 38%-68%.
I clarified the "stop" in last nights newsletter. I don't think anyone is confused at this point.
ReplyDeleteI'm showing gold still $20 above that level??
ReplyDeleteIf it drops below then we will switch to our exit strategy so as to avoid an intermediate decline.
We are starting to see some panic now. That's a good sign :)
TZ
ReplyDeleteYea I agree with you. Although I understand what Gary told us, it took me few times of reviewing SMT and comments here. Sometimes, I confused. I suggest Gary seperating strategies into new paragraph.
Also the dollar is closing in on that 80 target.
ReplyDeleteIf we could get one more up day tomorrow for the dollar to 80 it might drive the S&p down to the 50 DMA.
ReplyDeleteI can't imagine gold drop $80 in 3 days. I lack of imagination. :)
ReplyDeleteGary: Looks like the coil in SPX broke higher initially and is now reversing hard the other way.
ReplyDeleteIMF has two bailout plans for Ireland!!
ReplyDeleteIreland to issue statement at 9:00 PST
By two plans I meant
ReplyDeleteone stronger (more cash)
one weaker!
Well, I was tempted by lower prices the other day and Gary cooled me off. I'm starting to get tempted again.
ReplyDeleteHard to wait for swings. I always want to jump in front of the bus.
I bet there are a lot of highly leveraged players getting blown out of the water on this decline. I can only imagine how many out there got too emotional and giddy and chased silver up on leverage. Just based on the leverage chatter we saw here it was getting overheated, eh?
ReplyDeleteGet them out of the way and we can form a bottom. Question is, where...?
I see Gold going down at least to 1290 in the next few days.
ReplyDeleteReally? Can I get a look at that crystal ball :)
ReplyDeleteGARY,
ReplyDeleteI note that this is now currently the first *real test* of your market calls since I have been a subscriber at the 1166 low.
It's gonna be interesting
:-)
Especially since we got theDOC taking sides too.
NOTE: None of this is said to indicate this is easy or that my record of late is better. It's not. I just like the current state of this showdown :-)
TZ--
ReplyDeleteInteresting times Indeed
TZ,
ReplyDeleteAnd if I'm wrong we have a plan in place to keep us from riding an intermediate correction :)
Gary,
ReplyDelete"If the S&P can end the day here it will trigger a Bollinger band crash trade and push the 5 day RSI into oversold territory."
what is your definition number for "5 day RSI oversold"?
FWIW--
ReplyDeleteI agree with Gary.
The fundamentals (FED) (global money printing) on his side. I believe the amount of stimulus is pushing these big moves in both directions.
I bet gold didn't hit intermediate top as gold never top like this but usually by a stretched cycle with sharp top. If recent days' action is to shake out from weak hands, I think gold will reserse quickly and no chance we can get on board.
ReplyDeleteGary, unless we're already on the D-Wave path, that wouldn't be pretty to say the least. :)
ReplyDeleteOversold = 30 or lower.
ReplyDeleteGold tagged the 50 DMA and has bounced. One could take a stab at a bottom here while keeping stops at $1315 in place.
ReplyDeleteNYSE Down Volume--
ReplyDelete2,133,302,706 (92%)
Extreme panic tick readings that are starting to reverse. Oh what the heck I'm going to add back my SLW here with gold tagging the 50 DMA.
ReplyDelete"Gold tagged the 50 DMA and has bounced. One could take a stab at a bottom here while keeping stops at $1315 in place."
ReplyDeletei bot some GDXJ, still set limit order 106 for AGQ
Caveat: Gary has said the ONLY stock/etf on the BoW or SoS list that has any meaning for predictive value is SPY.
ReplyDeleteThat said, the BoW number on GLD today is very large! 71 million so far and the day is not over yet.
I noticed -60 million on the SoS list at the recent gold top which is why I'm monitoring it today.
And yes, I'm planning to research prior turning points in gold and see whether there's any correlation with GLD showing up on BoW/SoS lists at those turning points. I'll post my results, but this will likely not happen till Thanksgiving weekend.
someone is buying stocks in my old turkey account, because it is rising from the ashes....not to mention..
ReplyDeleteVGZ ---even just went positive!!
i bought silver at 25, there was not much stop running
ReplyDeleteIs that an intraday alert?
ReplyDeletedollar is ripping today.
ReplyDeleteIt will be interesting to see whether the downtrend line from the early June high will serve as resistance and stop the advance here. That line crosses 79.60 (on the December futures) which is close to Gary's line in the sand of 80.
Also, the dollar has been in an uptrending channel since the November 4 low. --IF-- the dollar were to rally all the way to the top of that channel, it would top out 79.85 by end of day today (but this would blow right thru downsloping TL I mentioned above.)
Both of these targets are likely areas of at least short term reversal. If the dollar eventually breaks thru both, then we would have a whole new ballgame. I'm glad Gary's confident that that's not likely to happen!
NEW POST
ReplyDeleteGLD touch 50 ma, SLV touch 20 ma
ReplyDeleteUUP tag 23...
ReplyDeleteHere's some levels Prof Depew on Minyanville published about the dollar today:
ReplyDeleteDemark DAILY - on a sell set up bar 7 of 9 total. Need a high greater than today's 79.46 tomorrow or Thursday to perfect. After that, we can expect a 1-4 day downside reaction (Friday to next Wednesday)
Demark WEEKLY - on week 2 of a 1-4 week buy setup. When combined with the DAILY above, the dollar probably won't roll over immediately and will be surprisingly resilient during this period. This should hold until the beginning of December.
Demark MONTHLY - still looking for that 72.5 level to register a MONTHLY buy, good for 12 months after it is registered.
Demark QUARTERLY - BUY signal registers this quarter as 76.65 level was exceeded. This signal is good for 12 quarters (3 years) starting in January.
So, with the dollar currently around 79, Demarkians..hehe.. are looking for about a 10% drop from these levels to get rid of that monthly exhaustion at 72.5. In other words, a "collapse".
To me, this corresponds with Gary's next D wave, and it might be a doozy!