I will be at a weightlifting tournament this weekend and will not have access to the internet for much of the weekend. If you subscribe it may be Sunday evening before I get a chance to get the login info to you.
You said you expect the current daily cycle in gold to top when the dollar tags 74. And that the subsequent daily cycle correction would be more violent that previously. Would you therefore be taking down your leverage when you think the current daily cycle has topped? No hurry for an answer and enjoy your lifting :-)
That's inspiring Gary. I'm 47, and have to be careful to work around my injuries when I work out. But, still managing to do some intense workouts. Never considered going after a title, though. That takes talent and focus. Where do you find the time for that kind of training?
MLMT is out to lunch. Ther si so much buying pressure under these levels due to a complete loss of faith in the integrity of the dollar by foreign hoders of US debt who are desparate to diversify in order to protect their holdings. They are trading dollars for gold and are willing to throw dollars away at any price just to have some currency that can't be printed. We may correct, but for someone to put that out there, they are just looking to stir the pot, and the odds are not in their favor. IMO
Ra, No it's still too early for the intermediate cycle to top and even if it does we will know it if the daily cycle bottom gets violated. I went over all this in the weekend report.
for anybody that wants to do a quick trade on Sundays, when gold closes strong on Friday, enter long gold position at market open on Sunday and exit between 7-8pm same day. This is for a quick $4-$8 trade.
Why is it that if the USD hits $71, we will be looking to sell all our positions? Is it possible that the $ hits $71 later this month and then continues lower towards $60 later next spring?
Thanks for taking the time to reply. I guess maybe I was not clear in my question. I was not referring to liquidating most or all our positions in when the current daily cycle tops. I agree with you that we do this only at the intermediate top. I was more curious about your *leverage* positions. Would you take it down at the top of the current daily cycle? Many thanks in advance.
No, the only reason I took it down last week was because the Fed statement had the potential to alter the market. It didn't, so now there's nothing to do except hold Old Turkey until I think the intermediate cycle has topped.
looks like the dollar made it to 77. let hope it downhill from here. with the dollar up, gold is getting hit but silver seems unchanged. don't gold and silver rise and fall in tandem? why is silver stronger?
By the way, tim knight calling for a pullback in GLD today. A couple of days ago he said GDX was ready to rocket up. I pity the people that follow this guys advice.
Chiming in on stops, it is my opinion that the low of gold on fri (1370 approx) is an excellent stop point. In fact, going long hard with that as a stop would not a bad strategy - similar to gary's call likewise closer to 1315. (I've actually done that myself).
For silver, that's harder to judge. I would say 25.50 at this point, but I made it in big long before the breakout over 25 and have the freedom to put a stop lower with no whipsaw risk.
I guess you could use the low of silver on fri also as a good stop point.
NOTE: I am discussing these stop points in light of leveraged positions (my style generally) or people who want to get in but wouldn't be able to handle bigger drops to gary's 1315.
Just be aware that you aren't following gary if you use these numbers. I'm just mentioning that there are higher numbers that a person COULD use that reasonably give you some sort of protection again a turnaround. But they could also whipsaw you.
Who got stirred up? No one said they got stirred up. Looks like the pot calling the kettle black if you read that someone got sitrred up. Stirred up? Not me. No sir. I'm not stirred up. Anyone here stirred up?
Everthing clicked for me on wed, Fed day. I saw the amount of buying under the market and the limits to how low they could push it. I was waiting for a continuation of the gold/silver pullback (below the 1315 as gary mentioned) and it seemed clear that wouldn't happen. The morning slam down couldn't even hold longer a few hours and we were back to the highs that evening. Correction over, next wave of chasing, imo.
Thus, I went long wed evening (the benefits of using 24hr futures) about 2x on silver before we popped to new highs. (You guys using ETFs had to buy the morn gap up unfortunately.)
Those positions are $1.75 in the green and unlikely to get shaken at this point. When I took the position, I had a 3% (of my net worth) stop loss. That stop has since been moved up to my entry point around $25 (which I don't think will get seen again this cycle.)
As for gold, the following thursday *everything* was shooting up. New highs all around. Gold ramped as well, but paused and was putting in a triangle at it's old high.
I took one look and said "Well...THAT won't last long!". It was clearly just a technical selling point. The bull was green.
On that congestion around 1380, I went 2.5X on gold futures. My initial stop was about 1% (gold is less volatile than silver.) Now the stop is 1370 as I mentioned before.
So, I'm roughly 5X leveraged with stops that take me down quickly if things go against me. I'm already profitable with a buffer against declines (which is HUGE when doing this). The position sizes don't bother me and I sleep well.
Silver continuing up, alone, will make up for all missed profits so far. The gold is just an extra boost for fun.
Note: 5X means that if I have $10,000, I'm long about:
Clearly everybody including me wanted to get in on the low ($19 breakout silver, $1155 gold).
I didn't. That's life.
I make most of my gains in phases like this with leverage. Been here before.
Simply "going 100% or 130%" doesn't balance out the small losses I take to date. (Yes, buy and hold would have been *better*, but I got shaken first half of the year and have not been holding a substantial position. It is what it is. I deal with it. Mistakes are made.)
The constant grind up last 2-3 months in the metals never showed a clear entry point for a leveraged position. Any pullbacks were either A) sharp, less than 24hrs, or B) of little to no decline.
In both cases they don't argue for a point where you can buy leveraged and not get slammed out. (Although obviously there were many cause it climbed day after day. That's 20/20 hindsight).
Once the pullback started, me along with others saw that as finally the point where an entry on some sort of correction could be estabilished.
Me, others, even gary were waiting/thinking 1315 might (would) fail and 1260-1300 would be possible (where I would then go long finally with leverage.)
Wed/thurs/fri showed, so far, to my belief, that the lows were in and we resume going higher. So I bit.
LISTEN: YES, I will do things different going forward with a more steady/hold style. I'm not happy about recent events and I'm not happy trying to trade in. It was HORRIBLE. But it happens.
Should this work out like my past trading in similar positions I will do quite well. If not I will take a small loss and continue the game. I only have to hit every now and then to pull it - and I do and have multiple times over 10 yrs.
This is the Platinum squeeze/panic that happened beginngin 2008. It is my opinion we might be looking at a similar buying panic in silver.
There is a pattern to stuff like this - is usually lasts a bit more than a month in duration and has a sharp acceleration out of an already uptrending market.
I believe a squeeze/panic is possible due to: 1) COT reducing shorts - seeming out of fear and the strength of the mkt 2) CFTC guy admitting manipulation of the mkt 3) Two lawsuits filed against bullion banks for manipulation. 4) Sprott (and other) sources of STRONG buying 5) The general behavior in finance that if people smell smoke or think somebody is bleeding then JUMP AGAINST THEIR POSITIONS and make them hurt. History is ripe with examples where rumors of a large entity on the wrong side of the market were pounced on by other traders. 6) Actual industrial consumers of silver might come in here and start hoarding too.
I think we have the makings of a short squeeze or buying panic in silver.
If last week was the first such week, then we have another 4-5 weeks to go. Each one would roughly gain about $2.
Interestingly, since everybody predicts $30 I think we can go $35. If you go 4 weeks times $2 each week then you get to $35-40 as a blowoff.
It's possible and I'm watching for it. We will know soon if silver runs up another $2 this week. That will be the tell.
The 'leverage' or gains normalized AGAINST gold lately (and actually going back a while give or take) are:
GOLD = X (up about 15% since Aug) Silver = 2X (up about 30% since) SLW = 4X (up about 50-60%)
$10000 in GOLD=$5000 in SILVER=$2500 SLW
I would prefer to have SLW instead of silver futures, but the problem is I can't get leveraged easily without the risk of a gap overnight taking a chunk out of me. You also can't really use stops or get in/out in seconds like futures.
(I've had SLW on and off for years. Yes, I should have just bought and held but 2008/09 was a killer.)
The high Silver to Gold ratios in last 10yrs have been around .021-.022 during blowoff tops.
I think THIS silver move is going to exceed all those previous highs due to the special current events. We can already see that silver is leading gold and has greater strength.
If gold is heading to $1600 which I think minimally is true, then using the previous spike highs in silver at 0.022, we get:
1600x0.022=$35 silver
(I've said I think this works cause people think $30 is doable - so markets surprise and go higher.)
If we exceed 0.022, then we can get the $40 or higher silver which would be the short sqeeze, platinum blowoff-type situation.
Interesting analysis on TSI Trader as posted by TZ above.
Obviously, he can only use the 50%fib for analysis after the C-wave has put in a top.
So what he seems to be showing is that each C-wave has developed a T1 type pattern.
And if this one ends the same way, we have a target of $1600. Which is what you were alluding to in the weekend report Gary (which was excellent by the way).
Thanks TZ for posting the link from TSI Trader. I thought it was rather educational and useful esp. for subscribers to Gary's blog and want to know more about the tools and techniques that Gary uses.
Modestly good start to Friday's sell signal. I will cover SMH and SPY at down 1% on a major index. Looking to add some PM there as well. Let's see what happens...
Yes---1% from Friday's close. I do sometimes take partial profits, but if the signal is to fail it usually fails right away, so the start this morning implies we'll get the full 1%. Too, I am viewing it as a partial hedge against my PM's which are also mixed today. With GDXJ and SLV both down I am still up for the day because SPY is down more, so I am tempted to hold the short for the full quick ride as we see how gold behaves. New highs are coming , though, so this is just a trade. Put buyers would be having a nice day as the IX is up as well.
Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe a few days ago you thought the gap on GDX wouldn't fill, that it was a breakaway gap. It looks like the same day the gap was formed on SLW, why do you think that gap will fill? Does that mean you also think the GDX gap will fill? TIA
Do you, gentlemen, take tax considerations into account when taking profits? On my SLW position that is up 185% and is a long-term gain if I were to sell it today, I would have to buy it back 10% below today's price just to break even on taxes and there is no guarantee that the market would be so obliging! If I sold EXK this morning for a 60% short term gain it would need to correct 15% to a break even point. I just do not see much value in taking profits in this kind of market.
If you sell SLW today and buy back at the same price you have locked in the 10% capital gain for 2010. Next year the rate increases to 15% so I think you come out ahead with that strategy. You will have to pay the tax sometime so better to pay at 10% rate, imo.
It's usually better to hedge than lose your position if you think you can get a long-term gain out of it, IMO. Instead of selling SLW, just short an appropriate amount of SIL. It's not perfect, but it's hard to picture SLW and SIL going in different directions for very long. And if you are just looking to scalp a few percent, just pass on the sale of SLW altogether.
Man you guys are heavy-hitters, or maybe it's just G-man.
SoS for SLW is negative 5 million today?
How much of that do you think is from SMTers? How much from Gary? Lol.
I know I know you're all going to say that hedge funds, other money managers, and just some random Joes also realized how stretched above the 200dma it was, and so we are insignificant. I think that is not true at all.
I put off about 1000 shares of SLW this morning, I'm sure many more of you put off more or the same but they all add up. Care to share so we can determine if our weight is anything to talk about?
Brian, EXK is the shit, I did some calculations and they have the lowest Market Capitalization / Amount of Silver PRODUCED Per Q3 2010 compared to about 12 significant producers.
I know this ignores production costs and reserves but I very much like this simple statistic...
Lol, anyone else remember Gary saying about 1-2 months ago or so just to get into SLW right away. I do perfectly, guess what the price was at that time? Around $21.5! AMAZING!
Actually it doesn't matter at all if you guys were to say how many SLW you got rid of today to compare to the SoS, because most the subscribers (isn't there 1000s?) don't post on here, so we'd never know what percentage we make of up SMTers who actually heeded Gary's advice today.
That said, I still think we could be a minor force. We should just pool our funds and buying a whole frickin miner! or better yet, a frickin spaceship!
Brian, I did not sell EXK, I said "If I sold it"). The chart looks good and I am going to hold it for a while.
Robert, EXK might be shit but I have no clue how the market values different miners, some seem very cheap and go nowhere, others fly to the moon and I cannot figure out why. I just look at charts.
Jesse, one has to be very poor to pay 10% cap gains. Fortunately, I am in the highest tax bracket, so the lowest short-term for me is 33%. Now, as a Canadian resident I do not pay state tax (just 25% cap gains regardless of the holding time) but those of you in the US have to add the state tax to your calculations. Back when I lived in Massachusetts the short term cap gains tax was 12% on top of the federal tax. OUCH!
DG, if I were a full time trader I could look into various hedging strategies but I am a lazy ass retiree who like to read and listen to opera. Reading Gary's updates in the evenings works for me. And since I stopped trading about a year ago my investment results have vastly improved.
Read my reports people and don't jump to conclusions. When I say I'm taking profits in part of my SLW position in front of an earnins report because it's stretched 70% above the 200 DMA it doesn't mean I'm selling anything else.
If I sell anything else I will clearly tell you what I'm doing.
MLMT is an attention seeking pooch. If he was serious about his shorts he would enter a trade and show us a print screen of it. In the meantime i found a video of him while browsing youtube.
I am itching to take profit now and nervous as silver just keeps on rising. I have stopped watching the screen but my broker keeps me posted. How to avoid selling my silver? Any advice
Dollar up, Gold down, Silver up....Is speculation in Silver getting out of hand here and silver will under perform going forward towards end of year and next spring?
I don't agree with the SLW sell. I've been there/done that. Get cute and SLW hands you your head - both ways.
I'm sitting on NONE cause I haven't found an acceptable entry point in last three months based on history of getting nailed by down moves in that thing. Once you sell and don't have that mental profit buffer anymore, it is a WHOLE NEW GAME trying to get back in. (Although not as hard if you aren't leveraging much.)
Anyway...if silver is in a runaway sqeeze (VERY possible) then SLW could go sky high since silver is likely to find a new higher plateau after it get's revalued. A new permanently higher adjustment for SLW's revenue stream
I think silver (and all things silver) have just been noticed by the mo-mo boys. Plus all the silver bears are being taken to the slaughter house. There is a good possibility that PMs will again decouple from the $$ just like they did during the Greek scare. There might me a new Irish scare afoot.
Buckle your belts, it is going to be a fun ride...
Just to clearly restate what I said, I believe it is POSSIBLE that silver is currently REVALUING against gold. That the RATIO is about to RESET to a higher level as the recognition of silver manipulation, buying and possible shortages sets in.
That is my argument against trying to game a 10-15% *possible* correction against that upside.
Gold is not a fear trade. Don't listen to the nonsense put out by the media. Gold is rising for two reason. Fundamentally central banks are debasing their currencies. One has to protect themselves from that.
Now gold is entering the momentuam stage as funds start to chase outperformance. It is the only sector in the world trading in a vacuum.
Note i've often been counter to gary's arguments lately (that is NOT intentional - my comments are honest and simply reflect different views.) Such as it is, my counter arguments have more often failed than not in situations like this lately. So each SLW owner must decide for themselves and I'm not saying I'm right here.
"Buckle your belts, it is going to be a fun ride..."
Going to be? It's been amazing for 8 weeks, LOL. But you would be crazy to jump now.
The miners are FINALLY showing real strength and leadership, obviously they have de-coupled from the broader equity market. Check out the volume on all of the miners, almost without except they are hitting their 3 month average volume by 1pm.
Maybe the better trade (especially in hindsight) would have been selling SLW to reduce company specific risk (as you never know how the market might react to earnings release) and buying silver itself or the SIL to still capture any upside.
Very much a hindsight move at this point. And I understand Gary's risk management move given the circumstances of earnings and the distance from the 200 DMA.
But then again, when you look at silver's last real huge run into a major top in '06, SLW got to almost 100% above it's 200 DMA, so we could have a lot more here to run before it takes a major break.
TZ: to clarify, you are refering to a 10-15% correction in Silver short term against a lot more upside during the current C-wave top, end of year or next spring?
Echoing gary's comment about this being a momentum stage. As i said a few days ago, the RECOGNITION DAY was on THURSDAY (after fed). That was the 'recognition' day that there would be no further correction and that the gold and silver bull were green and the only game in town.
Price action since that day has demonstrated that. It's now a chasing mkt.
Metals should rise mercilously causing *severe* pain to people who want in, waited, and/or sold gains to "get back in on pullbacks" (though gary has a good chance of being right; i mean this statement generally).
This rise will continue, probably for a few weeks now, until we get a buying capitulation segment where the last holdouts can't take it anymore. That part will look absolutely amazing from our point of view cause the gains and moves will always be larger than you think possible.
The trick is to not get caught up in it (you WILL want to and buy more/HOLD) and actually bug out of your positions.
Historically that has been the harder part for me. Getting in leveraged like now hasn't. (Although this time was a killer).
Gary, when you mention slw reverting to the mean ,because its 70% over the 200day...I get that, but I swear ( correct me if I'm wrong)In 2006 run, I sold a stock for the reason it was 55% over , and it just stopped , went sideways up and SLIGHTLY down for several days , and took off again...THEN slammed down a bit. It may be early to sell a portion of SLW...no??
I sold 1/2 my NG @$13 after it gapped at $12...still going up.
Leo: It doesn't take a full time trader and is really very simple. IF you want to sell some SLW but don't want to lose the full time cap gain rate, just short some SIL. Simple. One order. One minute to do. Cover when you want to "buy" your SLW back.
I appreciate your constructive comments. I was applying traditional TA looking for a breach of 1315 low and a round number 1300.
You truly are class apart here. I hope some of these jerks would learn something from you.
I never said I was short. And they still are talking about me being short. If someone insists on stooping lower and lower, I am not going to stop them :-)
>TZ: to clarify, you are refering to a 10-15% correction in Silver short term against a lot more upside during the current C-wave top, end of year or next spring?
NO. I think silver is gonna keep running for weeks here. I'm simply discussing SLW. The gap lower that gary is looking at is about 11% or so. I'm discussing trying to game that gap by selling and buying vs a possible revaluation of silver against gold which MIGHT be happening now.
you said "Once you sell and don't have that mental profit buffer anymore, it is a WHOLE NEW GAME trying to get back in. (Although not as hard if you aren't leveraging much.)"
I see this as an advantage: Undisturbed by a position, it' much easier to decide what to do - even maybe to reenter at a higher price.
I understand that in order for the stock or etf to appear on one list or the other it has to have a large dollar amount for the day. If the stock/etf is trading lower today than Friday's close and it has a large dollar amount, then it will appear on the BoW list. If it's trading higher today and has large dollar amount, then it appears on the SoS list.
So the question is: How do we know that money is going into or going out of the stock/etf? Exactly the same amount of money goes into the stock as is going out, right? So all these lists are telling us is, hey, here's a stock/etf that's UP (SoS) and the dollar amount on the stock is high. Or here's a stock/etc that's DOWN (BoW) and its dollar amount is high.
Seems like you can get the same info in maybe a better format by just looking at a price and volume chart of the stock. And what we would be looking for as a possible indication of a top would be rising price and climactic volume. Bottom would be indicated by declining price and climactic volume.
Regarding my last comment re SoS and BoW, I should have added:
I think SoS and BoW is misleading. How do we know it's not BoS (buying on strength) or SoW (selling on weakness)? All we know is that a lot of money is going into that stock/etf, but we don't know why, don't know who is selling and who is buying and why, right?
I'm sitting on NG too, $5.60 position. I know it's super stretched, but something else is going on, it's being accumulated VERY heavily for some weeks now. The volume is massive and on some days there are huge buying spikes.
Do you really think SLW will drop back down and fill in that gap at 30? How soon do you expect that to happen? I sold about half my SLW at open and now I miss it.
Want you guys to think about something else. One day (maybe soon), SLW will start paying a DIVIDEND.
(After all, the company is pretty much just a dinky office with a computer that conduits silver from miners to the market.)
The dividend they pay might ultimately (if history of 70's is precident) be equal to the ENTIRE price of the stocke PER YEAR. The stock might be $100-200 easily in the future and the div's might be $25 or $30 where the price is here.
In the 70's a lot of the mining stocks ended up paying divs yearly near the end that were equal or higher to the prices that they were trading at earlier in the bull market.
SLW is a monster now. Wait till it starts paying out cash.
WARNING NOTE: my enthusiasm for SLW and the seeming argument that "it can never drop again" (which is sorta what i'm projecting here; i know) could easily be a contrary indicator that it's time for the stock to take a break.
So have I confused enough people about what they should do? :-) Good, cause I don't know either. But I'm buying on a good dip if we get one.
sold 1/2 my NG today at$14.30 Could it go higher?? I guess , but its 100% over its 200dma... Either waiting for a pullback or looking for a new runner ...trouble is they're all over their 200dma by 50% except for the dogs ( NXG , IAG, etc)
ME TOO!! since the gap at $12 I wanted to sell half..glad I didnt really :) Just looking to get into another that is running, but not as extended...maybe HL or PAL etc
In the long run I think you will end up much happier buying ETF's than trying to guess which stock is going to outperform at the moment. Just og with AGQ. It has outpaced everything anyway.
AGQ certainly is very strong, but it too is almost 100% over its 200dma. so does that bother you being away from the mean by that much, or not until dec will it bother you-personally?
Gary said: "n the long run I think you will end up much happier buying ETF's than trying to guess which stock is going to outperform at the moment. "
I don't know about that one... With all due respect to Gary, and I should be the last to complain - he has made me over 1m, GDXJ is by far the worst performer in my portfolio. Even taking into account a few underperformers discarded along the way (EGO, NXG, MFN, JAG) my own EFT beats hands down GDXJ. All I watch is realtive performance and stick to the winners.
I use GDXJ and SIL for my smaller accounts (like the IRA) which is not big enough to accommodate multiple positions.
i hope the euro/usd just made a double bottom so we can start dropping on the DXY. Now then we should see some moves in gold straight out of the matrix :P
I run through all my charts and do my homework...then I looked at the gdx and the HUI charts...JUST getting started , just broke out of huge consolidations. crazy!
and thx for that answer Gary.
and thanks for this blog Gary...you and all the traders on here are pretty cool and exntertaining. good stuff :)
>Thanks, TZ, I will look into that. I hope it is not too complicated for my feeble brain. I like to keep things simple.
No offense, but an immediate response like that makes me say don't do it. You said you made 1mil from Gary, but then gingerly tiptoe using 'feeble' and 'simple'. Conflicting signals.
Hello All, Gary, The trip to India by our leader, if Obama is looking for a new country to start buying our debt, could this affect silver and gold outside of any cycle you see?? Wondering how politics can affect the dollar or prices of things...
damn us dollar still hanging in. you think you can drop some of your weights onto it to make it go down. That is the only thing that is making me nervous. Thanks.
Garry, this comes from my heart: Thank you. Without you I would not be on this train, and damn would I be missing out on a hell of a party.
To all others debating when to sell or to buy: Good luck with that ;)I mean Garry cant come over and do the trade for you. If you have no clue of the markets just follow his advise. If you are a experinced trader use Garry as a tool or as a guide but never as the 110% truth....his magic ball for future telling works as good as everyone elses.
ps. could someone please tell me when to sell HL, I am looking for 12ish$ too greedy??;)
Again this rise is happening on dollar strength. What will happen when the dollar rally ends? haha...dollar rally. Its up about 1% or so since the fed, but it still feels like a rally. My guess is that we get the parabolic rise when the dollar resumes its decent.
I'll tell you though, this is the hardest part of making money for me, just holding on when the market is racing. I am feeling fear about the pms falling off their precipice. But you know what that tells me? ....The vast majority of retail investors are likely selling here becuase they have less fortitude than I do. They are likely taking profits and will watch in dibelief as this continues higher. Thenjump back in again near to the top when they can;t stand it any longer. That will be the blow off top.
This buying is from insitutional buyers. This has higher to go.
this could get confusing...maybe I should sign mine alexander , because I am in HL too...haha
Hl has great volume and price spread today , and ...if this is institutional buying , they have DEEEP pockets and these are small piggybanks to put their money in...
but when the top is in (listen to Gary), watch out for their proofit taking too.
CHECK YOUR EMOTIONS, it's way too early to even be talking profit, this is when the money is made. Equities are down, dollar is up, but the miners want to party, look at the strength and volume. The strategy has been presented and is playing exactly to script, why question it?
People interested in futures should understand that:
1 SI margin contract = $7000 and controls $138,000.00 of silver
1 GC margin contract = $6000 and controls $140,000.00 of gold
If you have a boutique broker you can get intra-day margins that are closer to 1k per contract but must be settled before the cash close (now that is some leverage).
I realize that many miners still have significant upside potential, but I had to take some profits on half into this spike. I'll look to put the proceeds back on, but only after pullback or some sideways action. SVM went up 96% just since August, and my thought is I'll get the sideways to lower at some point. Because of Gary, I did not sell it all like I would have in the past.
Another thing that struck me over the weekend was that everything I read was super bullish on the metals. Of course they can continue, but it felt too one-sided for the very near term.
A great trader has told me on several occasions to ignore my % gain entirely when in a trade, as things can go way farther than we think. I'm getting better, but still working on that mindset.
My career has been short term trading, and it's been difficult at times to crack the mold. I much prefer the slow steady rises to the spikes we've been getting daily; easier to stay focused on the plan.
I had a response to your "heavy leverage always ends in blowout" but I thought of a better way to assist the discussion.
Your wording is too vague and often when well-meaning people argue the problem is actually their definitions.
Please simply provide and SPECIFIC EXAMPLE of "heavy leverage" and how such a position is moved or affected by some security to demonstrate a 'blow up' scenario.
Please give an account size, a security (or securities), the leverage amount, and the action of the security which results in blowout. This will help if you have the time to do it for us. Thanks.
My assertion here is that your SPECIFIC example of such a overleveraged blowout will actual demonstrate the real conditions of danger vs making reasonable bets.
The leverage you choose, the security or securities and the movement or situation which results in 'blowup' can then be analyzed completely.
Suffice to say that I dont currently believe my 5X position is succeptible to 'blowup' under anything other than 'hit by lightning' scenarios. But i'm willing to listen and discuss.
Trust me folks, when you're young and feel like your invicible you think you can get away with anything.
But I guarantee you can't. There will come a time where you will miss and that massive leverage will put a huge dent in your account. One so large that you can't recover from it. Or you will miss 5 or 10 entries in a row and that will put a massive dent in your account that you can't recover from.
Mostly it will have to do with emotions. They simply aren't controllable if you have such large leverage that you can't make intelligent decisions.
I know it's hard to do, especially if you are young, and I probably wouldn't have been able to do it myself when I was in my 20's and 30's but if you will heed my warnings on this you will walk away from this bull market with enough riches to retire for the rest of your life.
If you choose to ignore me then at some point the bull is going to throw you a curve ball and it won't matter how much you've made up to that point. That curve will take it all away and you will have squandered the single greatest financial opportunity in your life.
thats why I take every physical penny left over from taxes and life and stick it in physical silver. Too hard to day trade physical so that the "forced" old turkey style!
n1tro, to be precise my invested accounts totaled about 1.5m when I started following Gary's advice and today I am at 3.1m (of which 140K happened today).
Fubsy: This is the hardest part for me too. I can buy when everyone is in panic, but I have a hard time holding on during the run.
Shalom, Quit thinking so much and get back to the presses. That dollar of yours is getting uppity. Maybe you should print a few for Ireland, just to tide 'em over?
yeah I hear ya...still trying to make my first $1 m but it's hard when you start with almost nothing! My point was, for someone with $1m, it is relatively easier to turn it to $2m, than the guy with $10K turning it to $100K. Congrats on your success so far.
Gary-- Just trying to understand why you are trying to time the intermediate cycle/daily cycle top in gold. I know its somewhat of a major low due for the dollar, but are you willing to lose your position in the middle of the biggest c-wave thus far as well as into a 3-year cycle low in the dollar? Is there a possibility the dollar 1-year low can morph into the 3-year low?
I don't think there are many people who can get rich simply by investing. I believe you are better off starting a business, make other people work for you (that's what I did). Then you have the spare cash to do what Gary tells you to do.
yeah doing that now...have my own business and a day job! :( thats the only way to free up enough cash to be able to play the stocks or forex. what kind of business were/are you in?
Don't worry Josh, I promise everything will be OK.
nitro, like you I have been buying physical along the way. I haven't even received the last purchase and it's already up around 15%, otherwise I might have cashed out of half that too!
n1tro, nothing too exciting, it is a travel agency. I no longer am involved in any meaningful way but it still throws off some cash. But it can really be any business, whatever you are really good at and whatever you enjoy the most. The opportunities are always there, you just need to keep your eyes open, be prepared to take a leap. Good luck!
Guys, Sorry if any of my posts above were too aggressive or over the top. Valid points all around and no insults intended. I get worked up sometimes like the rest of us.
Anyone tempted to switch almost everything towards silver? I'm thinking SIL, SLW, AGQ, PSLV and some hand picked juniors on the silver side.
Also, SIL is pretty thinly traded still. Are you guys pretty comfortable with it? My goodness, HL, EXK, SVM and almost every junior I track on a frickin TEAR!
You wrote "SoS of 53M in GLD so far...maybe we pull back in the next few days?"
Like I said earlier, we don't really know whether this is selling on strength or buying on strength. That's why I think SoS is misleading. All we know is that a lot of GLD shares were traded today.
Even so, today's volume on GLD is certainly not out of the ordinary, so it doesn't look climactic to me.
Pima: You may not understand how SoS is calculated. SoS means that the big money is hitting the bids. That is, the sales are happening on downticks during an upmove. That shows that the sellers are aggressive and calling a top. BoW is purchases on upticks during a decline. The question is whether the big money is aggressively buying into a down move, or selling into an up move. Does that make sense?
How do we know it's big money on SoS? Here's what the WSJ SoS page says about SoS:
"Money flows are calculated as the dollar value of composite uptick trades minus the dollar value of downtick trades. The up/down ratio reflects the value of uptick trades relative to the value of downtick trades. Money flow, uptick and downtick volume are in millions of US dollars. Among stocks that are up today, these have the largest outflow of money."
So I still don't get how they can tell that these stocks had money going out. For every transaction, there's money coming in AND going out. Is it because when big money sells, it causes the ticks to go down because they are selling in such big lots?
If so, then what this is telling us is that GLD had lots of large blocks being sold today, more large blocks being sold than large blocks being bought, right?
Please notice that Euro has just made a lower low in the 6-days cycles. That means daily cicle has turned down, which means the intermediate cycle has turned down.
So dollar probably is going to start a new intermediate cycle. And, if Euro drops, maybe gold will follow in a intermediate cycle low.
thanks SB, i never bothered to look into the APMEX deals but i see much better price than ebay. I thought they were running 20% premium. Good thing you told me because i almost bought 10oz last night from ebay
CG, Pretty unlikely, The dollar intermediate cycle is still to short. You can probably throw your 6 day cycles in the trash. They are too short to have any meaning. Cycles work because of human emotions. 6 days isn't long enough to stretch sentiment.
Pima: If the SoS is $300 million it means the sellers were much more aggressive than the buyers. And $300 million means it wasn't little guys---it's the big funds getting ready for a dip, and if they stop buying the market will fall. As for SoS on non-SPY securities, Gary has said he has studied it and everything other than SPY has no predictive value.
let us know how many oz of gold you lift!
ReplyDeleteHere's a link to Gary's Tournament.
ReplyDeleteThere's a live feed, but I have no idea when Gary will be lifting.
http://tinyurl.com/28rv4pk
dont hurt yourself Gary. We need you to be 100% healthy to help us navigate the storms of the C wave.
ReplyDeleteLove the stache and the dew lol
Gary,
ReplyDeleteYou said you expect the current daily cycle in gold to top when the dollar tags 74. And that the subsequent daily cycle correction would be more violent that previously. Would you therefore be taking down your leverage when you think the current daily cycle has topped?
No hurry for an answer and enjoy your lifting :-)
just to continue theme
ReplyDeleteleverage 120%
AGQ 40%
GDXJ 20 %
SIL 20 %
SLW 20%
Looks to me like Gary's lifting at 3:30 pm PST
ReplyDeleteSUNDAY NOVEMBER 7th
WEIGHT CATEGORIES WEIGH INS LIFTING BEGINS
MEN 77 & 85 Kg Classes 9:00 - 10:00 AM 11:00 PM
WOMEN 69, 75 & +75 Kg Classes 11:00 - 12:00 PM 1:00 PM
MEN 94, 105 & +105 Kg Classes 1:30 - 2:30 PM 3:30 PM
gary is on the top at the moment.Great!!!!
ReplyDeleteThat's inspiring Gary. I'm 47, and have to be careful to work around my injuries when I work out. But, still managing to do some intense workouts. Never considered going after a title, though. That takes talent and focus. Where do you find the time for that kind of training?
ReplyDeleteBest of luck!
Well, finally he's quarter in its category.
ReplyDeleteGet ready for sub 1300 gold and possibly even 1240 in coming weeks. All those buying now will be bagholders. Good luck :-)
ReplyDeleteThanks MLMT,
ReplyDeletevery insightful and I have an open order to sell everything at 6 p.m. on globex.
You must be short??
MLMT, what makes you think we will have that level of retracement?
ReplyDeleteJust curious.
You know what would be super yummy right now?
ReplyDeleteA bull flag.
MLMT is out to lunch. Ther si so much buying pressure under these levels due to a complete loss of faith in the integrity of the dollar by foreign hoders of US debt who are desparate to diversify in order to protect their holdings. They are trading dollars for gold and are willing to throw dollars away at any price just to have some currency that can't be printed. We may correct, but for someone to put that out there, they are just looking to stir the pot, and the odds are not in their favor. IMO
ReplyDeleteFutures are open and SI is up 0.10 and GC is down approx 2 dollars.
ReplyDeleteStill long PAAS and GDXJ and loving it.
Will add if we get a pull back. Didnt get filled on Friday for the add to GDXJ.
Earnings for PAAS and SLW Monday (not sure premarket or after the close).
MLMT,
ReplyDeleteVery insightful. Why don't you short gold, or better yet, silver?
Use DZZ to short gold or use the double-short silver ETF, ZSL.
Better yet, do it on margin.
Then start posting on blogs like this one. That way, you can single-handedly talk down the price of gold.
You're such a smart guy, MLMT. Good luck!
Fubsy is right on the money. MLMT is short-sighted, looking for the next few ticks, while we're on the G-Train to riches! :)
ReplyDeleteMLMT just got squeezed to $27.00 an ounce on globex :)
ReplyDeleteRa,
ReplyDeleteNo it's still too early for the intermediate cycle to top and even if it does we will know it if the daily cycle bottom gets violated. I went over all this in the weekend report.
for anybody that wants to do a quick trade on Sundays, when gold closes strong on Friday, enter long gold position at market open on Sunday and exit between 7-8pm same day. This is for a quick $4-$8 trade.
ReplyDeleteHi Gary,
ReplyDeleteWhy is it that if the USD hits $71, we will be looking to sell all our positions? Is it possible that the $ hits $71 later this month and then continues lower towards $60 later next spring?
Nike,
ReplyDeleteIt has to do with the intermediate cycle. I went over it in the weekend report.
Hi Gary,
ReplyDeleteThanks for taking the time to reply. I guess maybe I was not clear in my question. I was not referring to liquidating most or all our positions in when the current daily cycle tops. I agree with you that we do this only at the intermediate top.
I was more curious about your *leverage* positions. Would you take it down at the top of the current daily cycle?
Many thanks in advance.
Gary,
ReplyDeleteI just have a few basic questions.
The start of this new daily cycle in gold started on Oct 22, 2010 correct?
I see that you also wrote that daily cycles are between 20-30 days and have been stretching. Is that trading days or just days in general?
No, the only reason I took it down last week was because the Fed statement had the potential to alter the market. It didn't, so now there's nothing to do except hold Old Turkey until I think the intermediate cycle has topped.
ReplyDeletedd,
ReplyDeleteCycles are measured in trading days.
Hi Gary,
ReplyDeletelooks like the dollar made it to 77. let hope it downhill from here. with the dollar up, gold is getting hit but silver seems unchanged. don't gold and silver rise and fall in tandem? why is silver stronger?
By the way, tim knight calling for a pullback in GLD today. A couple of days ago he said GDX was ready to rocket up. I pity the people that follow this guys advice.
ReplyDeleteEvening guys,
ReplyDeleteChiming in on stops, it is my opinion that the low of gold on fri (1370 approx) is an excellent stop point. In fact, going long hard with that as a stop would not a bad strategy - similar to gary's call likewise closer to 1315. (I've actually done that myself).
For silver, that's harder to judge. I would say 25.50 at this point, but I made it in big long before the breakout over 25 and have the freedom to put a stop lower with no whipsaw risk.
I guess you could use the low of silver on fri also as a good stop point.
ReplyDeleteNOTE: I am discussing these stop points in light of leveraged positions (my style generally) or people who want to get in but wouldn't be able to handle bigger drops to gary's 1315.
Just be aware that you aren't following gary if you use these numbers. I'm just mentioning that there are higher numbers that a person COULD use that reasonably give you some sort of protection again a turnaround. But they could also whipsaw you.
You guys must not know how to read.
ReplyDeleteDID I SAY I AM SHORT? I just said this is not the level to buy. I am waiting for a retracement to sub-1300 to buy.
It is amazing how people will read what they want to read... somethings never change LOL
All I stirred up was some desperate emotions here... if you got stirred up, then you got too much leverage IMO.
Who got stirred up? No one said they got stirred up. Looks like the pot calling the kettle black if you read that someone got sitrred up. Stirred up? Not me. No sir. I'm not stirred up. Anyone here stirred up?
ReplyDeleteSo Gary, How did the weeknd turn out?
ReplyDeleteTZ, The breakout was not at 25. It was the gap up out of the triangle at 18.50...... You did indeed miss it. Hang on tight brother!
ReplyDelete=LEVERAGE ANSWER=
ReplyDeleteEverthing clicked for me on wed, Fed day. I saw the amount of buying under the market and the limits to how low they could push it. I was waiting for a continuation of the gold/silver pullback (below the 1315 as gary mentioned) and it seemed clear that wouldn't happen. The morning slam down couldn't even hold longer a few hours and we were back to the highs that evening. Correction over, next wave of chasing, imo.
Thus, I went long wed evening (the benefits of using 24hr futures) about 2x on silver before we popped to new highs. (You guys using ETFs had to buy the morn gap up unfortunately.)
Those positions are $1.75 in the green and unlikely to get shaken at this point. When I took the position, I had a 3% (of my net worth) stop loss. That stop has since been moved up to my entry point around $25 (which I don't think will get seen again this cycle.)
As for gold, the following thursday *everything* was shooting up. New highs all around. Gold ramped as well, but paused and was putting in a triangle at it's old high.
I took one look and said "Well...THAT won't last long!". It was clearly just a technical selling point. The bull was green.
On that congestion around 1380, I went 2.5X on gold futures. My initial stop was about 1% (gold is less volatile than silver.) Now the stop is 1370 as I mentioned before.
So, I'm roughly 5X leveraged with stops that take me down quickly if things go against me. I'm already profitable with a buffer against declines (which is HUGE when doing this). The position sizes don't bother me and I sleep well.
Silver continuing up, alone, will make up for all missed profits so far. The gold is just an extra boost for fun.
Note: 5X means that if I have $10,000, I'm long about:
$7000 core
$20000 silver
$25000 gold
BRIAN,
ReplyDeleteClearly everybody including me wanted to get in on the low ($19 breakout silver, $1155 gold).
I didn't. That's life.
I make most of my gains in phases like this with leverage. Been here before.
Simply "going 100% or 130%" doesn't balance out the small losses I take to date. (Yes, buy and hold would have been *better*, but I got shaken first half of the year and have not been holding a substantial position. It is what it is. I deal with it. Mistakes are made.)
The constant grind up last 2-3 months in the metals never showed a clear entry point for a leveraged position. Any pullbacks were either A) sharp, less than 24hrs, or B) of little to no decline.
In both cases they don't argue for a point where you can buy leveraged and not get slammed out. (Although obviously there were many cause it climbed day after day. That's 20/20 hindsight).
Once the pullback started, me along with others saw that as finally the point where an entry on some sort of correction could be estabilished.
Me, others, even gary were waiting/thinking 1315 might (would) fail and 1260-1300 would be possible (where I would then go long finally with leverage.)
Wed/thurs/fri showed, so far, to my belief, that the lows were in and we resume going higher. So I bit.
LISTEN: YES, I will do things different going forward with a more steady/hold style. I'm not happy about recent events and I'm not happy trying to trade in. It was HORRIBLE. But it happens.
Should this work out like my past trading in similar positions I will do quite well. If not I will take a small loss and continue the game. I only have to hit every now and then to pull it - and I do and have multiple times over 10 yrs.
http://bit.ly/dhm7St
ReplyDelete(stockcharts.com)
This is the Platinum squeeze/panic that happened beginngin 2008. It is my opinion we might be looking at a similar buying panic in silver.
There is a pattern to stuff like this - is usually lasts a bit more than a month in duration and has a sharp acceleration out of an already uptrending market.
I believe a squeeze/panic is possible due to:
1) COT reducing shorts - seeming out of fear and the strength of the mkt
2) CFTC guy admitting manipulation of the mkt
3) Two lawsuits filed against bullion banks for manipulation.
4) Sprott (and other) sources of STRONG buying
5) The general behavior in finance that if people smell smoke or think somebody is bleeding then JUMP AGAINST THEIR POSITIONS and make them hurt. History is ripe with examples where rumors of a large entity on the wrong side of the market were pounced on by other traders.
6) Actual industrial consumers of silver might come in here and start hoarding too.
I think we have the makings of a short squeeze or buying panic in silver.
If last week was the first such week, then we have another 4-5 weeks to go. Each one would roughly gain about $2.
Interestingly, since everybody predicts $30 I think we can go $35. If you go 4 weeks times $2 each week then you get to $35-40 as a blowoff.
It's possible and I'm watching for it. We will know soon if silver runs up another $2 this week. That will be the tell.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteLeverage note:
ReplyDeleteThe 'leverage' or gains normalized AGAINST gold lately (and actually going back a while give or take) are:
GOLD = X (up about 15% since Aug)
Silver = 2X (up about 30% since)
SLW = 4X (up about 50-60%)
$10000 in GOLD=$5000 in SILVER=$2500 SLW
I would prefer to have SLW instead of silver futures, but the problem is I can't get leveraged easily without the risk of a gap overnight taking a chunk out of me. You also can't really use stops or get in/out in seconds like futures.
(I've had SLW on and off for years. Yes, I should have just bought and held but 2008/09 was a killer.)
The high Silver to Gold ratios in last 10yrs have been around .021-.022 during blowoff tops.
ReplyDeleteI think THIS silver move is going to exceed all those previous highs due to the special current events. We can already see that silver is leading gold and has greater strength.
If gold is heading to $1600 which I think minimally is true, then using the previous spike highs in silver at 0.022, we get:
1600x0.022=$35 silver
(I've said I think this works cause people think $30 is doable - so markets surprise and go higher.)
If we exceed 0.022, then we can get the $40 or higher silver which would be the short sqeeze, platinum blowoff-type situation.
Just my ponderings.
Silver/gold chart here:
ReplyDeletehttp://img826.imageshack.us/img826/4166/silvergold.gif
I think this exceeds 0.022 this time.
Look at it this way...the surprises in EVERYTHING have been to the upside lately. Why not expect the same from the silver/gold ratio?
ReplyDeletehttp://thetsitrader.blogspot.com/2010/11/golds-7-parabolic-c-waves-projection.html
ReplyDeletePretty good ABCD pattern review of gold rallys for last 10yrs.
funny, gary/toby is discussed in the comments of that article
ReplyDeleteJohn is my business partner.
ReplyDeleteIf MLMT understood how cycles work he would know theres very little chance we will ever see $1300 gold again for the duration of this bull market..
Interesting analysis on TSI Trader as posted by TZ above.
ReplyDeleteObviously, he can only use the 50%fib for analysis after the
C-wave has put in a top.
So what he seems to be showing is that each C-wave has developed a T1 type pattern.
And if this one ends the same way, we have a target of $1600. Which is what you were alluding to in the weekend report Gary (which was excellent by the way).
Thanks Gary,
ReplyDeleteSo we are old turkey to the next intermediate top. Sounds good to me. Much less agonizing and stress :-)
Thanks TZ for posting the link from TSI Trader. I thought it was rather educational and useful esp. for subscribers to Gary's blog and want to know more about the tools and techniques that Gary uses.
ReplyDeleteTZ, there are now 4 law suits againt JPM (silver) and one of them is a RICO, which is VERY serious.
ReplyDeletethe bamster says Wrong-Way TK is not calling for lower gold.
ReplyDeleteSweet! More upside to come. Adding on all dips.
Excuse me, I meant to say TK is NOW calling for lower gold.
ReplyDeleteToo early in the morning, gonna get some coffee.
Modestly good start to Friday's sell signal. I will cover SMH and SPY at down 1% on a major index. Looking to add some PM there as well. Let's see what happens...
ReplyDelete$HUI showing some very encouraging strength.
ReplyDeleteDG, is that down 1 percent from Friday's close?
ReplyDeleteDo you ever take partial profit, move your stop up on the remainder, and let it ride? If so, is that something you might do here?
Yes---1% from Friday's close. I do sometimes take partial profits, but if the signal is to fail it usually fails right away, so the start this morning implies we'll get the full 1%. Too, I am viewing it as a partial hedge against my PM's which are also mixed today. With GDXJ and SLV both down I am still up for the day because SPY is down more, so I am tempted to hold the short for the full quick ride as we see how gold behaves. New highs are coming , though, so this is just a trade. Put buyers would be having a nice day as the IX is up as well.
ReplyDeleteSold half my SVM, ANV, SIL, GDXJ, and SIVR etf.
ReplyDeleteStill a bull, and don't mind re-entering in a few days, even at higher prices if necessary.
Gary,
ReplyDeleteCorrect me if I am wrong, but I believe a few days ago you thought the gap on GDX wouldn't fill, that it was a breakaway gap. It looks like the same day the gap was formed on SLW, why do you think that gap will fill? Does that mean you also think the GDX gap will fill? TIA
Stretched too far above the mean.
ReplyDeleteThanks, DG.
ReplyDeleteDo you, gentlemen, take tax considerations into account when taking profits? On my SLW position that is up 185% and is a long-term gain if I were to sell it today, I would have to buy it back 10% below today's price just to break even on taxes and there is no guarantee that the market would be so obliging! If I sold EXK this morning for a 60% short term gain it would need to correct 15% to a break even point. I just do not see much value in taking profits in this kind of market.
ReplyDeleteAm I missing anything? Any words of wisdom?
You bring up good points, Leo. I have always been taught to not let anything but the trade dictate my actions, yet your numbers are worth considering.
ReplyDeleteI'll have to think on that.
Leo,
ReplyDeleteIf you sell SLW today and buy back at the same price you have locked in the 10% capital gain for 2010. Next year the rate increases to 15% so I think you come out ahead with that strategy. You will have to pay the tax sometime so better to pay at 10% rate, imo.
LEO,
ReplyDeleteI dont take tax into consideration when i place a trade.
You should be focused on the position not taxation IMO.
It's usually better to hedge than lose your position if you think you can get a long-term gain out of it, IMO. Instead of selling SLW, just short an appropriate amount of SIL. It's not perfect, but it's hard to picture SLW and SIL going in different directions for very long. And if you are just looking to scalp a few percent, just pass on the sale of SLW altogether.
ReplyDeleteLeo, EXK just broke out of a 3 year basing pattern. Why did you sell that?
ReplyDeleteTZ, I was just pulling your chain. We have all been there before, and will be there again......
ReplyDeleteMan you guys are heavy-hitters, or maybe it's just G-man.
ReplyDeleteSoS for SLW is negative 5 million today?
How much of that do you think is from SMTers? How much from Gary? Lol.
I know I know you're all going to say that hedge funds, other money managers, and just some random Joes also realized how stretched above the 200dma it was, and so we are insignificant. I think that is not true at all.
I put off about 1000 shares of SLW this morning, I'm sure many more of you put off more or the same but they all add up. Care to share so we can determine if our weight is anything to talk about?
Pima: and then sometimes, if you get a little lucky, you win on both your shorts and your longs :)
ReplyDeleteBrian, EXK is the shit, I did some calculations and they have the lowest Market Capitalization / Amount of Silver PRODUCED Per Q3 2010 compared to about 12 significant producers.
ReplyDeleteI know this ignores production costs and reserves but I very much like this simple statistic...
Lol, anyone else remember Gary saying about 1-2 months ago or so just to get into SLW right away. I do perfectly, guess what the price was at that time? Around $21.5! AMAZING!
ReplyDeleteActually it doesn't matter at all if you guys were to say how many SLW you got rid of today to compare to the SoS, because most the subscribers (isn't there 1000s?) don't post on here, so we'd never know what percentage we make of up SMTers who actually heeded Gary's advice today.
ReplyDeleteThat said, I still think we could be a minor force. We should just pool our funds and buying a whole frickin miner! or better yet, a frickin spaceship!
SLW has the potential to be a 50+ dollar stock. I just dont see the benefit of selling.
ReplyDeletesilver breaking through!!!
ReplyDeleteI just don't like holding a full position when anything gets that stretched above the mean.
ReplyDeleteEverything eventually regresses to the mean. There are no exceptions.
That doesn't mean I will catch the exact top. I almost never do )
Brian, I did not sell EXK, I said "If I sold it"). The chart looks good and I am going to hold it for a while.
ReplyDeleteRobert, EXK might be shit but I have no clue how the market values different miners, some seem very cheap and go nowhere, others fly to the moon and I cannot figure out why. I just look at charts.
Jesse, one has to be very poor to pay 10% cap gains. Fortunately, I am in the highest tax bracket, so the lowest short-term for me is 33%. Now, as a Canadian resident I do not pay state tax (just 25% cap gains regardless of the holding time) but those of you in the US have to add the state tax to your calculations. Back when I lived in Massachusetts the short term cap gains tax was 12% on top of the federal tax. OUCH!
DG, if I were a full time trader I could look into various hedging strategies but I am a lazy ass retiree who like to read and listen to opera. Reading Gary's updates in the evenings works for me. And since I stopped trading about a year ago my investment results have vastly improved.
Good luck to y'all!
great , silver is breaking through $27 and you guys are selling...
ReplyDeleteUSD showing more strength...with silver showing strength simultaneously.
ReplyDeleteMan, are we AGQ holders ever gonna get a nice tasty bull flag for adding another helping?
I hope no one is selling silver.
ReplyDeleteRead my reports people and don't jump to conclusions. When I say I'm taking profits in part of my SLW position in front of an earnins report because it's stretched 70% above the 200 DMA it doesn't mean I'm selling anything else.
If I sell anything else I will clearly tell you what I'm doing.
Silver seems to be itching to break 28 next and try a shot at 30 before the year is over...
ReplyDeleteI think MLMT would do himself a big favor if he would learn how C-waves and cycles work :)
ReplyDeletesilver has left the building
ReplyDeleteMLMT is an attention seeking pooch. If he was serious about his shorts he would enter a trade and show us a print screen of it.
ReplyDeleteIn the meantime i found a video of him while browsing youtube.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zWOcDIxSCyA
WOW, she is a beautiful sight!
ReplyDeleteHi Gary,
ReplyDeleteI am itching to take profit now and nervous as silver just keeps on rising. I have stopped watching the screen but my broker keeps me posted. How to avoid selling my silver? Any advice
V :)
Why would you want to sell? We have 0 indications the intermediate cycle is finished. Until we do why would you wnat to sabotage yourself?
ReplyDeleteDollar up, Gold down, Silver up....Is speculation in Silver getting out of hand here and silver will under perform going forward towards end of year and next spring?
ReplyDeleteGary
ReplyDeletecould you not put a trailing stop under SLW say 2% to catch the raise that I have only just logged on to see but avoid the drop.
Bit reluctant to pull the trigger
Then just ride any correction that may happen. A correction will get reversed eventually anyway. It is a bull market.
ReplyDeleteI don't agree with the SLW sell. I've been there/done that. Get cute and SLW hands you your head - both ways.
ReplyDeleteI'm sitting on NONE cause I haven't found an acceptable entry point in last three months based on history of getting nailed by down moves in that thing. Once you sell and don't have that mental profit buffer anymore, it is a WHOLE NEW GAME trying to get back in. (Although not as hard if you aren't leveraging much.)
Anyway...if silver is in a runaway sqeeze (VERY possible) then SLW could go sky high since silver is likely to find a new higher plateau after it get's revalued. A new permanently higher adjustment for SLW's revenue stream
Just my thoughts
Gary, do you think GOLD is a "fear" trade, like many people have been saying?
ReplyDeleteI think silver (and all things silver) have just been noticed by the mo-mo boys. Plus all the silver bears are being taken to the slaughter house. There is a good possibility that PMs will again decouple from the $$ just like they did during the Greek scare. There might me a new Irish scare afoot.
ReplyDeleteBuckle your belts, it is going to be a fun ride...
Just to clearly restate what I said, I believe it is POSSIBLE that silver is currently REVALUING against gold. That the RATIO is about to RESET to a higher level as the recognition of silver manipulation, buying and possible shortages sets in.
ReplyDeleteThat is my argument against trying to game a 10-15% *possible* correction against that upside.
Gold is not a fear trade. Don't listen to the nonsense put out by the media. Gold is rising for two reason. Fundamentally central banks are debasing their currencies. One has to protect themselves from that.
ReplyDeleteNow gold is entering the momentuam stage as funds start to chase outperformance. It is the only sector in the world trading in a vacuum.
Note i've often been counter to gary's arguments lately (that is NOT intentional - my comments are honest and simply reflect different views.) Such as it is, my counter arguments have more often failed than not in situations like this lately. So each SLW owner must decide for themselves and I'm not saying I'm right here.
ReplyDeleteHEY...AAAAAHHH , ANYONE hear from MLMT...??? : ) He was gonna buy the pullback at 1260
ReplyDeletesorry, I couldnt resist. my bad.
"Buckle your belts, it is going to be a fun ride..."
ReplyDeleteGoing to be? It's been amazing for 8 weeks, LOL. But you would be crazy to jump now.
The miners are FINALLY showing real strength and leadership, obviously they have de-coupled from the broader equity market. Check out the volume on all of the miners, almost without except they are hitting their 3 month average volume by 1pm.
Maybe the better trade (especially in hindsight) would have been selling SLW to reduce company specific risk (as you never know how the market might react to earnings release) and buying silver itself or the SIL to still capture any upside.
ReplyDeleteVery much a hindsight move at this point. And I understand Gary's risk management move given the circumstances of earnings and the distance from the 200 DMA.
But then again, when you look at silver's last real huge run into a major top in '06, SLW got to almost 100% above it's 200 DMA, so we could have a lot more here to run before it takes a major break.
TZ: to clarify, you are refering to a 10-15% correction in Silver short term against a lot more upside during the current C-wave top, end of year or next spring?
ReplyDeleteFolks don't forget SLW is only a 10% position in my portfolio and I'm only reducing that position by 75%.
ReplyDeleteEchoing gary's comment about this being a momentum stage. As i said a few days ago, the RECOGNITION DAY was on THURSDAY (after fed). That was the 'recognition' day that there would be no further correction and that the gold and silver bull were green and the only game in town.
ReplyDeletePrice action since that day has demonstrated that. It's now a chasing mkt.
Metals should rise mercilously causing *severe* pain to people who want in, waited, and/or sold gains to "get back in on pullbacks" (though gary has a good chance of being right; i mean this statement generally).
This rise will continue, probably for a few weeks now, until we get a buying capitulation segment where the last holdouts can't take it anymore. That part will look absolutely amazing from our point of view cause the gains and moves will always be larger than you think possible.
The trick is to not get caught up in it (you WILL want to and buy more/HOLD) and actually bug out of your positions.
Historically that has been the harder part for me. Getting in leveraged like now hasn't. (Although this time was a killer).
Gary, when you mention slw reverting to the mean ,because its 70% over the 200day...I get that, but I swear ( correct me if I'm wrong)In 2006 run, I sold a stock for the reason it was 55% over , and it just stopped , went sideways up and SLIGHTLY down for several days , and took off again...THEN slammed down a bit. It may be early to sell a portion of SLW...no??
ReplyDeleteI sold 1/2 my NG @$13 after it gapped at $12...still going up.
I think NG is almost 100% over its 200dma now .
ReplyDeleteLeo: It doesn't take a full time trader and is really very simple. IF you want to sell some SLW but don't want to lose the full time cap gain rate, just short some SIL. Simple. One order. One minute to do. Cover when you want to "buy" your SLW back.
ReplyDeleteThanks Gary.
ReplyDeleteI appreciate your constructive comments. I was applying traditional TA looking for a breach of 1315 low and a round number 1300.
You truly are class apart here. I hope some of these jerks would learn something from you.
I never said I was short. And they still are talking about me being short. If someone insists on stooping lower and lower, I am not going to stop them :-)
MLMT you came on here and called everybody bag holders and acted like a jerk.
ReplyDeleteNow you want to call the forum members jerks because your hypothesis just went up in flames.
If you are using TA then please explain what you saw and how you calculated your buy points.
I am sure the forum members would love to know
NICK:
ReplyDelete>TZ: to clarify, you are refering to a 10-15% correction in Silver short term against a lot more upside during the current C-wave top, end of year or next spring?
NO. I think silver is gonna keep running for weeks here. I'm simply discussing SLW. The gap lower that gary is looking at is about 11% or so. I'm discussing trying to game that gap by selling and buying vs a possible revaluation of silver against gold which MIGHT be happening now.
TZ,
ReplyDeleteyou said
"Once you sell and don't have that mental profit buffer anymore, it is a WHOLE NEW GAME trying to get back in. (Although not as hard if you aren't leveraging much.)"
I see this as an advantage: Undisturbed by a position, it' much easier to decide what to do - even maybe to reenter at a higher price.
Okay, here's a question about SoS and BoW:
ReplyDeleteI understand that in order for the stock or etf to appear on one list or the other it has to have a large dollar amount for the day. If the stock/etf is trading lower today than Friday's close and it has a large dollar amount, then it will appear on the BoW list. If it's trading higher today and has large dollar amount, then it appears on the SoS list.
So the question is: How do we know that money is going into or going out of the stock/etf? Exactly the same amount of money goes into the stock as is going out, right? So all these lists are telling us is, hey, here's a stock/etf that's UP (SoS) and the dollar amount on the stock is high. Or here's a stock/etc that's DOWN (BoW) and its dollar amount is high.
Seems like you can get the same info in maybe a better format by just looking at a price and volume chart of the stock. And what we would be looking for as a possible indication of a top would be rising price and climactic volume. Bottom would be indicated by declining price and climactic volume.
It's calculated by transacttions that occur on the ask and bid.
ReplyDeleteRemember it's a waste of time to watch anything other than the SPYDER's.
Regarding my last comment re SoS and BoW, I should have added:
ReplyDeleteI think SoS and BoW is misleading. How do we know it's not BoS (buying on strength) or SoW (selling on weakness)? All we know is that a lot of money is going into that stock/etf, but we don't know why, don't know who is selling and who is buying and why, right?
Wow, silver up over 50% since August!
ReplyDeleteAlex,
ReplyDeleteI'm sitting on NG too, $5.60 position. I know it's super stretched, but something else is going on, it's being accumulated VERY heavily for some weeks now. The volume is massive and on some days there are huge buying spikes.
I sold some SLW in the past and it is really hard to get back in.
ReplyDeleteAnother strategy could be to sell the position and diversify into GDXJ or SIL.
Wow, even NXG is up 5% today. That sure is something......
I think a better plan would be to put the capital into AGQ as it will most likely match SLW's gains.
ReplyDeleteDo you really think SLW will drop back down and fill in that gap at 30? How soon do you expect that to happen? I sold about half my SLW at open and now I miss it.
ReplyDeleteWant you guys to think about something else. One day (maybe soon), SLW will start paying a DIVIDEND.
ReplyDelete(After all, the company is pretty much just a dinky office with a computer that conduits silver from miners to the market.)
The dividend they pay might ultimately (if history of 70's is precident) be equal to the ENTIRE price of the stocke PER YEAR. The stock might be $100-200 easily in the future and the div's might be $25 or $30 where the price is here.
In the 70's a lot of the mining stocks ended up paying divs yearly near the end that were equal or higher to the prices that they were trading at earlier in the bull market.
SLW is a monster now. Wait till it starts paying out cash.
I can't quite believe the board today. This is a dollar-up day...
ReplyDeleteImagine what will happen if we see 71 on the DXY.
WARNING NOTE: my enthusiasm for SLW and the seeming argument that "it can never drop again" (which is sorta what i'm projecting here; i know) could easily be a contrary indicator that it's time for the stock to take a break.
ReplyDeleteSo have I confused enough people about what they should do?
:-)
Good, cause I don't know either. But I'm buying on a good dip if we get one.
sold 1/2 my NG today at$14.30 Could it go higher?? I guess , but its 100% over its 200dma... Either waiting for a pullback or looking for a new runner ...trouble is they're all over their 200dma by 50% except for the dogs ( NXG , IAG, etc)
ReplyDelete"Could it go higher??"
ReplyDeleteyeah I hear you, but I've been saying that since $10 :-)
POLY
ReplyDeleteME TOO!! since the gap at $12 I wanted to sell half..glad I didnt really :) Just looking to get into another that is running, but not as extended...maybe HL or PAL etc
In the long run I think you will end up much happier buying ETF's than trying to guess which stock is going to outperform at the moment. Just og with AGQ. It has outpaced everything anyway.
ReplyDeleteseriously,
ReplyDeleteI am beginning to think that until the dollar yrly low , these could just break laws and parabolic run till december , then correct a bit hard.
I HATE when I think like that though, too early?? too late??
Gary says old turkey wins and it did me good from AUG to OCT for sure..but 100% over the 200 dma
but then again...anyone see AUMN...300% over its 200dma!!!! WOW!
Thank Gary if you sit tight and old turkey it, not getting out too early.
Gary,
ReplyDeleteAGQ certainly is very strong, but it too is almost 100% over its 200dma. so does that bother you being away from the mean by that much, or not until dec will it bother you-personally?
thanks
AGQ is an ultra fund. It is going to stetch much further than a stock.
ReplyDeleteThe AGQ position will be gooverned by gold. When I think the intermediate gold cycle has topped then I will sell AGQ.
Gary said: "n the long run I think you will end up much happier buying ETF's than trying to guess which stock is going to outperform at the moment. "
ReplyDeleteI don't know about that one... With all due respect to Gary, and I should be the last to complain - he has made me over 1m, GDXJ is by far the worst performer in my portfolio. Even taking into account a few underperformers discarded along the way (EGO, NXG, MFN, JAG) my own EFT beats hands down GDXJ. All I watch is realtive performance and stick to the winners.
I use GDXJ and SIL for my smaller accounts (like the IRA) which is not big enough to accommodate multiple positions.
i hope the euro/usd just made a double bottom so we can start dropping on the DXY. Now then we should see some moves in gold straight out of the matrix :P
ReplyDeleteI run through all my charts and do my homework...then I looked at the gdx and the HUI charts...JUST getting started , just broke out of huge consolidations. crazy!
ReplyDeleteand thx for that answer Gary.
and thanks for this blog Gary...you and all the traders on here are pretty cool and exntertaining. good stuff :)
LEO:
ReplyDelete>I use GDXJ and SIL for my smaller accounts (like the IRA) which is not big enough to accommodate multiple positions.
Put your IRA at interactivebrokers.com and you can buy Single Stock Futures (SSF's) or futures (gold/silver).
SSF's are available on most large miners, SLW, GDX, etc.
Obviously I'm not recommending anybody do anything they don't understand or aren't comfortable with. This isn't investing advice.
Keep your heads about you people. If you get too complacent you won't be able to exit at the top when it comes.
ReplyDeleteThanks, TZ, I will look into that. I hope it is not too complicated for my feeble brain. I like to keep things simple.
ReplyDelete>Keep your heads about you
ReplyDeleteprecious metal investors today:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hlYCVpPo1WQ
(click the red 'balloon comment' icon lower right to get ride of stupid comment in middle of screen)
Leo, do you mind sharing the stocks in your "custom ETF" ?
ReplyDeleteLEO:
ReplyDelete>Thanks, TZ, I will look into that. I hope it is not too complicated for my feeble brain. I like to keep things simple.
No offense, but an immediate response like that makes me say don't do it. You said you made 1mil from Gary, but then gingerly tiptoe using 'feeble' and 'simple'. Conflicting signals.
Hello All, Gary,
ReplyDeleteThe trip to India by our leader, if Obama is looking for a new country to start buying our debt, could this affect silver and gold outside of any cycle you see?? Wondering how politics can affect the dollar or prices of things...
Makutaku, will gladly share this with you. Here is the list:
ReplyDeleteHL
EXK
NG
SVM
SLW
NGD
AGQ
UXG
CDE
SIL
GSS
GDXJ
GDX
ANV
BVN
RBY
GBG
TCK
NSU
LIWA
GRS
TZ, it does not take much intellectual brilliance to simply follow Gary's suggestions and slap myself on those itchy fingers from time to time.
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeletedamn us dollar still hanging in. you think you can drop some of your weights onto it to make it go down. That is the only thing that is making me nervous. Thanks.
Garry,
ReplyDeletethis comes from my heart:
Thank you.
Without you I would not be on this train, and damn would I be missing out on a hell of a party.
To all others debating when to sell or to buy: Good luck with that ;)I mean Garry cant come over and do the trade for you. If you have no clue of the markets just follow his advise.
If you are a experinced trader use Garry as a tool or as a guide but never as the 110% truth....his magic ball for future telling works as good as everyone elses.
ps. could someone please tell me when to sell HL, I am looking for 12ish$ too greedy??;)
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ReplyDeleteoh and I am a different ALex than the one asking about Agq....I should rename myself
ReplyDeleteAgain this rise is happening on dollar strength. What will happen when the dollar rally ends? haha...dollar rally. Its up about 1% or so since the fed, but it still feels like a rally. My guess is that we get the parabolic rise when the dollar resumes its decent.
ReplyDeleteI'll tell you though, this is the hardest part of making money for me, just holding on when the market is racing. I am feeling fear about the pms falling off their precipice. But you know what that tells me? ....The vast majority of retail investors are likely selling here becuase they have less fortitude than I do. They are likely taking profits and will watch in dibelief as this continues higher. Thenjump back in again near to the top when they can;t stand it any longer. That will be the blow off top.
This buying is from insitutional buyers. This has higher to go.
TZ,
ReplyDeletehow much leverage is 1 SI contract in dollars?
I know ES is approx 43k per contract of the S&P.
thanks
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ReplyDeleteHey ALEX,
ReplyDeletethis could get confusing...maybe I should sign mine alexander , because I am in HL too...haha
Hl has great volume and price spread today , and ...if this is institutional buying , they have DEEEP pockets and these are small piggybanks to put their money in...
but when the top is in (listen to Gary), watch out for their proofit taking too.
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ReplyDeleteGuys,
ReplyDeleteCHECK YOUR EMOTIONS, it's way too early to even be talking profit, this is when the money is made. Equities are down, dollar is up, but the miners want to party, look at the strength and volume.
The strategy has been presented and is playing exactly to script, why question it?
Silver contract (SI) is 5000oz of silver or $138,000.
ReplyDeleteGold (GC) is 100oz gold or $140,000. Almost equal.
The margin to have 1 silver is about $7000 or 20x. The margin to have 1 gold is $6000 or about 23x (gold is less volatile.)
THERE IS RISK INVOLVED IN ALL THIS. THIS IS FOR PEOPLE WHO KNOW AND UNDERSTAND THAT. YOU HAVE TO DO YOUR HOMEWORK AND BE WILLING TO TAKE LOSSES.
People interested in futures should understand that:
ReplyDelete1 SI margin contract = $7000 and controls $138,000.00 of silver
1 GC margin contract = $6000 and controls $140,000.00 of gold
If you have a boutique broker you can get intra-day margins that are closer to 1k per contract but must be settled before the cash close (now that is some leverage).
it doesn't take a lot of intellect to make $1 m especially if you have a $1 m to start with. I'd like to know what your starting position was?
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteYou could also trade options on Futures to control risk.
ReplyDeleteLet me say this again.
ReplyDeleteHeavy leverage always ends in a blown out account. There are no exceptions to this rule people.
You may think that because it hasn't happened yet it's not going to happen. BUT IT WILL!
I'm not kidding, there are never any exceptions to this one.
I realize that many miners still have significant upside potential, but I had to take some profits on half into this spike. I'll look to put the proceeds back on, but only after pullback or some sideways action. SVM went up 96% just since August, and my thought is I'll get the sideways to lower at some point. Because of Gary, I did not sell it all like I would have in the past.
ReplyDeleteI'm staying old turkey until Gary says other wise.
ReplyDeleteAnother thing that struck me over the weekend was that everything I read was super bullish on the metals. Of course they can continue, but it felt too one-sided for the very near term.
ReplyDeleteYet they continue higher! :)
The HUI is only 24% above the 200 DMA. That's nothing. I'm expecting 45-60% before this leg tops.
ReplyDeleteSo far you're right, Elk2go.
ReplyDeleteA great trader has told me on several occasions to ignore my % gain entirely when in a trade, as things can go way farther than we think. I'm getting better, but still working on that mindset.
My career has been short term trading, and it's been difficult at times to crack the mold. I much prefer the slow steady rises to the spikes we've been getting daily; easier to stay focused on the plan.
GARY,
ReplyDeleteI had a response to your "heavy leverage always ends in blowout" but I thought of a better way to assist the discussion.
Your wording is too vague and often when well-meaning people argue the problem is actually their definitions.
Please simply provide and SPECIFIC EXAMPLE of "heavy leverage" and how such a position is moved or affected by some security to demonstrate a 'blow up' scenario.
Please give an account size, a security (or securities), the leverage amount, and the action of the security which results in blowout. This will help if you have the time to do it for us. Thanks.
My assertion here is that your SPECIFIC example of such a overleveraged blowout will actual demonstrate the real conditions of danger vs making reasonable bets.
ReplyDeleteThe leverage you choose, the security or securities and the movement or situation which results in 'blowup' can then be analyzed completely.
Suffice to say that I dont currently believe my 5X position is succeptible to 'blowup' under anything other than 'hit by lightning' scenarios. But i'm willing to listen and discuss.
SoS of 53M in GLD so far...maybe we pull back in the next few days?
ReplyDeleteI laid it out in the weekend report.
ReplyDeleteTrust me folks, when you're young and feel like your invicible you think you can get away with anything.
But I guarantee you can't. There will come a time where you will miss and that massive leverage will put a huge dent in your account. One so large that you can't recover from it. Or you will miss 5 or 10 entries in a row and that will put a massive dent in your account that you can't recover from.
Mostly it will have to do with emotions. They simply aren't controllable if you have such large leverage that you can't make intelligent decisions.
I know it's hard to do, especially if you are young, and I probably wouldn't have been able to do it myself when I was in my 20's and 30's but if you will heed my warnings on this you will walk away from this bull market with enough riches to retire for the rest of your life.
If you choose to ignore me then at some point the bull is going to throw you a curve ball and it won't matter how much you've made up to that point. That curve will take it all away and you will have squandered the single greatest financial opportunity in your life.
Shorts are getting squeezed. Gotta hurt. The commercials have such huge positions to cover. Jamie dimon is not having a happy Monday.
ReplyDeletethats why I take every physical penny left over from taxes and life and stick it in physical silver. Too hard to day trade physical so that the "forced" old turkey style!
ReplyDeleten1tro, to be precise my invested accounts totaled about 1.5m when I started following Gary's advice and today I am at 3.1m (of which 140K happened today).
ReplyDeleteIt is the first million that is the hardest.
Fubsy: This is the hardest part for me too. I can buy when everyone is in panic, but I have a hard time holding on during the run.
ReplyDeleteShalom,
Quit thinking so much and get back to the presses. That dollar of yours is getting uppity. Maybe you should print a few for Ireland, just to tide 'em over?
yeah I hear ya...still trying to make my first $1 m but it's hard when you start with almost nothing! My point was, for someone with $1m, it is relatively easier to turn it to $2m, than the guy with $10K turning it to $100K. Congrats on your success so far.
ReplyDeleteGary--
ReplyDeleteJust trying to understand why you are trying to time the intermediate cycle/daily cycle top in gold. I know its somewhat of a major low due for the dollar, but are you willing to lose your position in the middle of the biggest c-wave thus far as well as into a 3-year cycle low in the dollar? Is there a possibility the dollar 1-year low can morph into the 3-year low?
n1tro, thanks!
ReplyDeleteI don't think there are many people who can get rich simply by investing. I believe you are better off starting a business, make other people work for you (that's what I did). Then you have the spare cash to do what Gary tells you to do.
yeah doing that now...have my own business and a day job! :( thats the only way to free up enough cash to be able to play the stocks or forex. what kind of business were/are you in?
ReplyDeleteDon't worry Josh, I promise everything will be OK.
ReplyDeletenitro, like you I have been buying physical along the way. I haven't even received the last purchase and it's already up around 15%, otherwise I might have cashed out of half that too!
yeah if only my employer paid me in silver instead of slapping me in the face with a 1.5%-2% increase a year, I'd be a much happier employee.
ReplyDeleteMag,
ReplyDeleteBecause I'm not going to take a chance of getting caught in a D-wave decline just in case gold throws us a curve ball.
n1tro, nothing too exciting, it is a travel agency. I no longer am involved in any meaningful way but it still throws off some cash. But it can really be any business, whatever you are really good at and whatever you enjoy the most. The opportunities are always there, you just need to keep your eyes open, be prepared to take a leap. Good luck!
ReplyDeleteHoly smoke, the crappy silver miner MGN is up 19% today.....
ReplyDeleteGuys,
ReplyDeleteSorry if any of my posts above were too aggressive or over the top. Valid points all around and no insults intended. I get worked up sometimes like the rest of us.
A good day.
Anyone tempted to switch almost everything towards silver? I'm thinking SIL, SLW, AGQ, PSLV and some hand picked juniors on the silver side.
ReplyDeleteAlso, SIL is pretty thinly traded still. Are you guys pretty comfortable with it? My goodness, HL, EXK, SVM and almost every junior I track on a frickin TEAR!
Nike,
ReplyDeleteYou wrote "SoS of 53M in GLD so far...maybe we pull back in the next few days?"
Like I said earlier, we don't really know whether this is selling on strength or buying on strength. That's why I think SoS is misleading. All we know is that a lot of GLD shares were traded today.
Even so, today's volume on GLD is certainly not out of the ordinary, so it doesn't look climactic to me.
More important, Gary: How did the tournament go?
ReplyDeleteLOL I'll tell you in tonight's report.
ReplyDeletePima: You may not understand how SoS is calculated. SoS means that the big money is hitting the bids. That is, the sales are happening on downticks during an upmove. That shows that the sellers are aggressive and calling a top. BoW is purchases on upticks during a decline. The question is whether the big money is aggressively buying into a down move, or selling into an up move. Does that make sense?
ReplyDeleteMinefinders (MFN) 3rd QTR just was reported. Ouch!
ReplyDeleteSo where are people buying their physical bullion from?
ReplyDeleteApmex
ReplyDeleteGainesville Coins
Tulving
Are the top three I hear over and over for physical
DG,
ReplyDeleteHow do we know it's big money on SoS? Here's what the WSJ SoS page says about SoS:
"Money flows are calculated as the dollar value of composite uptick trades minus the dollar value of downtick trades. The up/down ratio reflects the value of uptick trades relative to the value of downtick trades. Money flow, uptick and downtick volume are in millions of US dollars. Among stocks that are up today, these have the largest outflow of money."
So I still don't get how they can tell that these stocks had money going out. For every transaction, there's money coming in AND going out. Is it because when big money sells, it causes the ticks to go down because they are selling in such big lots?
If so, then what this is telling us is that GLD had lots of large blocks being sold today, more large blocks being sold than large blocks being bought, right?
I got a hernia just looking at that ancient photo of Gary lifting that load over his furry face.
ReplyDeleteThanks Jay
ReplyDeleteIn canada, scotiabank sells silver. buy 1000 oz at once and only pay spot price!
ReplyDeletei am thinking about buying some Pamp Suisse oz gold bars from ebay....only about 7% premium.
ReplyDeletespend the same amount on silver bars and your return would be much greater.
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeletePlease notice that Euro has just made a lower low in the 6-days cycles. That means daily cicle has turned down, which means the intermediate cycle has turned down.
So dollar probably is going to start a new intermediate cycle. And, if Euro drops, maybe gold will follow in a intermediate cycle low.
Rookie question: Is AGQ (ETF, not options) considered leverage around here? Am thinking of adding here (already have a position)!
ReplyDeleteThanks,
Razvan,
ReplyDeleteHere you go, only a 2%+ markup, and you can be sure it'll arrive. I've never bought metals on ebay, but have heard there can be problems with fraud.
http://www.apmex.com/Product/11951/1_oz9999_Fine_Gold_Bar_Pamp_Suisse_In_Assay_Card.aspx
Gary,
ReplyDeleteIf we don't hit $50 silver by April I'm going to kick your ass.
I'm sorry, I meant Bernanke will kick your ass. He can fight you know. Tell em' Shalom.
ReplyDeletethanks SB, i never bothered to look into the APMEX deals but i see much better price than ebay. I thought they were running 20% premium.
ReplyDeleteGood thing you told me because i almost bought 10oz last night from ebay
CG,
ReplyDeletePretty unlikely,
The dollar intermediate cycle is still to short. You can probably throw your 6 day cycles in the trash. They are too short to have any meaning. Cycles work because of human emotions. 6 days isn't long enough to stretch sentiment.
I'll just print him into oblivion. :)
ReplyDeleteAnother big buyer?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/gld-overdue-buy-two-hundred-tons-actual-gold
Pima: If the SoS is $300 million it means the sellers were much more aggressive than the buyers. And $300 million means it wasn't little guys---it's the big funds getting ready for a dip, and if they stop buying the market will fall. As for SoS on non-SPY securities, Gary has said he has studied it and everything other than SPY has no predictive value.
ReplyDelete