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Tuesday, February 22, 2011

$5 EXPIRATION

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468 comments:

  1. I am looking to put to market my final 4% to bring my potfolio to my 135% max; hoping for a little pullback in HZU.T.

    My top 2 holdings, Great Panther and Silvermex are on a tear this morning!

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  2. About now might be the best chance to add to positions. Morning scramble is over and a healthy drop on Silver.

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  3. Here's hoping for a couple-day bull flag... Also, wonder how MLMT's shorts are doing this morning...

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  4. HUI and GDXJ taken down right from the opening while gold and silver were hardly moving at all. It is truly beyond ridiculous. Even if, as Gary thinks (and as I think is his genius' single flaw...) there is no conspiracy - well, then this is just a concerted effort to take the miners down without conspiracy! These banksters with their endless shorts are seriously pathetic.

    But never mind, their raids are getting shorter and fewer. They're losing and we're winning. The tell-tale sign is: where it used to be frightening to have to endure these attacks, it has now become so immensely boring to have to sit through another one yet again. They're SO waisting their time.

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  5. Walter,

    I thought the conspiracy was aimed at the metals themselves, not the miners.

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  6. Brain: Re CHina: re your comment from Friday regarding FXI's swing low...a swing low is only meaningful when it comes during the timing band for a bottom. Otherwise bear market rallies have tons of swing lows that do not indicate anything. There is no particular cycle duration for FXI, so the fact that it has rallied in a bear market gives me the opportunity to reshort what I covered a week or so ago at that low. It rallied right to its declining 50 DMA and died there---again---close enough to resistance at 43.10 that I had a nice tight stop if it went against me at all (which it didn't) At least that's how the setup looked to me.

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  7. Just bought more silver. im loving this pullback!

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  8. Boy, I really don't get what is so appealing about these conspiracy ideas. Even if true, they make no difference. The rules of proper trading deal with what is, not what is motivating what is. If the miners go down because of a conspiracy, Martians, or astrology, why does it matter? Especially since the question can never be determined. Must be something deep in human nature that finds these things immensely appealing because they have been around for thousands of years. There's always some idea that a group of guys chomping on cigars in a back room somewhere is pulling the strings regarding (you name it) the media, the government, PM's, medicine, oil companies suppressing technology,... Fascinating how rooted it is in the psyche somehow.

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  9. @LowTax... They are doing fine... GDX, SLV slightly wet...

    /GC starting to shine now.. it wasn't easy over the weekend, I must admit.. I like the gift that weekend gave me by pushing /GC to 1410 area.

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  10. yeah, I wonder what's up with GDXJ today?

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  11. Mikey,

    Yes, the purpose is, was, to keep the pm's from rising as much as possible. But while they're at it, the bullion banks simply have no choice but to short the hell out of the miners as well, since there's little point in trying -in vain- to keep the lid on the pm's while letting their producers fly.

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  12. A portfolio change has been posted to the premium site.

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  13. Bought more AGQ on the pullback. It's easy to do when sitting on decent sized profits. i am happy to give the profits back for the chance to make a huge kill. I will keep adding until I see a mainstream headline about the PM's being "something for investors to consider." I was amazed not to see a word about sliver after last week's explosion. Great!

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  14. DG, I bought some April 168's on AGQ myself on that dip.

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  15. Mikey-

    It is metals and not miners.


    DG-

    I've wrestled with the same question regarding conspiracies. There is little question in my mind that the Bullion Banks are working to suppress the price, but the question that always pops to the fore is - so what? It matters to me for a few reasons - 1) it supports the fundamentals beneath the timing-related work, 2)it causes me to think through the impacts on futures-related ETFs (SLV, AGQ, etc...at least I believe they are futures-related) if the COMEX defaults, 3) it prepares me mentally for possible co-conspirator (COMEX, Gov't) intervention, and 4) It matters to a lot of people in the market and may be priced in accordingly if/as physical price gains uncouple from paper price gains.

    It doesn't really impact my % allocation, but it has to a degree impacted my specific securities selection- I have a significant allocation in bullion-backed CEF instead of having a bigger AGQ position.

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  16. Walter,
    It's really nothing more mysterious than hedge funds shorting to fill a gap. Once the gap fills they usually cover and the asset gets back to doing what it was doing before the gap. Which in the case of the miners is going higher.

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  17. Gary,

    Did you not like the action in GDXJ reason for the switch?

    I also added more AGQ on the pullback.

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  18. I just think the silver miners will continue to outperform.

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  19. TJ: But if a decoupling starts it will not happen overnight. This is why I am technician. If you have a friend of yours with terrific eyesight and you are in the woods together and his eyes get wide and he screams "Oh my God!" and runs, you should run! Doesn't matter why. You may or may not find out why later. If GLD or AGQ starts to act strangely and decouples, I will deal with it then. Whether it is happening because of a conspiracy, a flaw in their structure, or a voodoo hex placed on them makes no difference to me. I am always prepared to adapt based on what Mr. Market tells me and spend my time monitoring his behavior rather than trying to figure out who's doing what to whom. But that's just my nature...

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  20. For sake of conversation only because I don't trade off conspiracies, I think it's quite naive to believe that people don't often cheat if given the opportunity.

    Just a blatant example is Madoff, who many people knew was cheating, including firms he did business with. These firms (broker/dealers) have a legal responsibility to report but instead did nothing. Even his son in law that worked for the SEC and investigated Madoff "surprisingly" found no wrong-doing. Lastly, how about the "feeder fund" brokers who funneled money to Madoff knowing full well nobody gains a steady 12% with little risk, every year for decades.

    The bottom line is some people cheat, and when a few get together, it's a conspiracy even if it doesn't work.

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  21. To anyone who thinks GC gave a gift yesterday to short, consider that my system optimized to weekly bars has only one small loss in2008 and every other long trade since the bull began has been a winner.Looks like GC will be gifting and gifting in the coming weeks as it gave a buy on Friday:)

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  22. Saying there are no conspiracies is like saying there are no criminals.

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  23. SLV puts are so far in the red, I doubt "slightly wet" is how I would categorize them. But hey, who am I to talk, I rode SP puts "slightly wet" until they cost a fortune.

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  24. You know, if we adopt green energy for our cars we would rally when middle east have problems and we would rally when there's peace there.

    Take that annual $2 trillion oil subsidy and start a green energy manhatten project and we'll be nicely green all over within 1-2 years.

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  25. The dollar is a strange animal. It should fall apart, and it might, because of QE. Yet there is always the 'flight to safety' whenever there is political unrest somewhere. What will weigh more, the burden of QE or the lift by Middle East unrest?

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  26. My money is on it dropping down into a major three year cycle low just like it has every three or so years for the last several decades.

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  27. "But but but the millions of oil jobs will be gone!"

    Easy, we open new positions like "Clam Throwers". All they have to do is pick up clams at the beaches and throw em back in the water. Go back to the waters and pick up the clams again and rethrow. Do that 8 hours a day. Best clam throwers get senior positions (Senior Clam Thrower) and so forth. Pay them 50-100k.

    At $100k a piece for 5 million people and we get a cost of $500 billion. Still much less than $2 trillion waste, and there's no pollution or war..

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  28. SB: Yes of course. I am not saying there are not any conspiracies, just that a lot of mental energy is wasted on them and they do not (or should not) have any effect on what you actually do. If people like to read science fiction, that's great, but it has nothing to do with investing. Of course people cheat, but who, how, when, and why cannot really be known until after the fact, and it doesn't matter in terms of investing/trading. If their footprint is big enough it'll show up anyway, so we can deal with it then.

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  29. And more importantly in a bull market anything that depresses price below where the market would take in normally will increase demand.

    Trying to manipulate the bull lower will only speed up the process of price appreciation.

    Bull markets are bigger than governments.

    If there is manipulation going on then the price of gold and silver are higher today than they would have been without it.

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  30. DG

    Nice picture, these conspiring guys chomping cigars in a back rooms, pulling levers all over the world. A bit simplistic too. I, for one, do not think such people exist anywhere. These things tend to spring up over time, and with some initial help from some people at the right place at the right moment, gradually 'self-organize', serving broad groups or fuzzily defined interests.

    Compare it to campaign financing. Of course no contributor will tell any elected politician directly what to do. But you don't seriously think institutions donating considerable sums to both Reps and Dems do so out of sheer patriotism and the true goodness of their hearts, do you? The point is: everybody who is part of such a scheme, whatever it is, understands the basics of how the scheme works +without+ having to be told explicitly. So there is NO need for elaborate command and control structures, there is NO mastermind behind the scenes. But well, you just don't vote against bank bailouts if your reelection depends on their contributions. In your position as a politician you understand quite well that is really 'not done'. And if you do it anyway -which you are of course free to do- you will not be ruthlessly cut out or killed of course. But money will flow to your adversaries. Your connections will degrade. You will slowly fade.

    Such conspiracies (for lack of a better word, I fully grant you that) are not a hierarchical thing. They're a SOCIAL thing, emerging in circumstances where they can and are allowed to thrive, when laws are not being enforced and fraud becomes rampant.

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  31. DG-

    I'll be one of the first to strap on tennis shoes when I see others beginning to run :-)..because I certainly don't know exactly what decoupling will look like. Is the separation this morning in SLV or PSLV an early indicator? Likely not without a ton more confirmation. I'm also uncertain what will happen if the COMEX fails...is it just a massive paper-physical uncoupling? Probably, but who knows since it hasn't happened before.

    Obviously I'm hedging my bets, since I have CEF and AGQ...although I refuse to buy SLV.

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  32. vuvvy,

    Thanks for posting your signals!

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  33. Walter: Yes to most of what you said, but they are irrelevant to proper decision making IMO. A bull is a bull, and needs to be traded a certain sensible way, manipulation or no. That's why I called belief in them a waste of energy and not necessarily incorrect (though most of them do in fact seem hare-brained to me.)

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  34. DG,

    Conspiracies are used by novice traders that need somebody to blame when the position moves against. Like you said it has to do with the psychology of the trader.

    Instead of blaming others they should focus on the process and what they did wrong.

    If they did that, then it would make it harder for experienced traders to make money.

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  35. Gary,

    Clearly, we disagree on whether or not there is a 'conspiracy' against the pm's and miners.

    Please note that, as I explained in my post to DG above, the 'conspiracy' I'm referring to is NOT one of some evil Capo di tutti Capi hiding under Obama's desk and telling him what to do.

    Still, there's little use to keep on discussing it, since neither of us can proof he is right. I believe I am and you believe you are. That's fine.

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  36. FYI, Schwab is employing double margin on silver calls. SLW. So be careful.

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  37. Hi Gary,
    I like your portfolio change. I was glad to get rid of the slowest mover.

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  38. Nice pullback today.

    I downloaded the opening and closing prices for Silver from Aug 20th to Nov 8th (Start of the first big decline)into an Excel spreadsheet.

    I then calculated the daily percentage change. From that, I identified any day down 2% or more and the action following that down day. I came up with 2 instances during this rally.

    Oct 7th - 2010 - Silver down -3.72%

    Following 5 days:

    1.82%
    2.00%
    0.40%
    0.57%
    2.07%
    Total 5 day gain = 9.13%

    Oct 21st, 2010 Silver Down 3.17%

    Following 5 days:

    0.77%
    -0.35%
    2.28%
    -0.56%
    0.35%
    Total 5 day gain = 3.72%

    What's interesting to note is the volatility exhibited in this first cycle compared to the first cycle out of Aug. There was not a single up or down day of 2% until Sep 28th for +2.16%, followed by the Oct 7th drop of -3.72%.

    Just some food for thought.

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  39. My view on all this conspiracy thing is that if you really believe that there are large groups of traders colluding to gain an advantage over the rest of us, then you should not be trading, period! It´s just strange to me that people actually believe there is meaningful collusion going on (which makes the game very unfair to us) and still decide to trade it.

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  40. Is there any concern holding SLW into earnings on 3/3? Just remembering what happened after a couple recent miners reported earnings.

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  41. If I want to play in a poker game, but for some reason believe to a very high degree that 2 or more people at the table are colluding, than why the hell would I play in that table?

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  42. Look at the grains today. Most are locked limit down.

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  43. Thanks Poly, helps put the current pullback in perspective.

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  44. Is Beanie now talking to himself?

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  45. David,

    Has to be a conspiracy!!

    rofl

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  46. Buying opportunity in the S&P. Stop would be at 1311.

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  47. good post Poly, keep up the good work!

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  48. i told you guys we wont be trading outside the daily bolinger for more than 2-3 days but nobody listened

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  49. Because in the end conspiracies are killed when they're exposed for what they are. I would not play the rigged poker game, but IF metals are being suppressed it implies they are already massively short which potentially adds more fuel to the fire if prices continue higher and they are forced to cover. I said "if", because I do not invest in conspiracies. I only say that they do exist, and they can exist anywhere, possibly even the metals markets.

    I've never put forth that metals were going here or there "because JPM is...", however that also does not mean they are not involved in dirty acts with regards to metals.

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  50. So when are you going to buy back in, raz, and will you definitely buy all the size you already had? That is the question.

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  51. Rav,
    No asset will trade indefinitely outside the upper Bollinger band because the band will accelerate to catch up eventually.

    But you can't trade a penetration of the upper band like you do the lower because markets go up differently than they go down.

    Sometimes a penetration of the lower band signals an exhaustion on the downside. Most of the time a penetration on the up side just signals the beginning of a powerful rally.

    If one exits expecting a pullback because the upper band was penetrated they will often just get left behind.

    BTW the S&P is nearing the limit of the runaway corrective size. If the this is a runaway move then buying once the S&P dips about 30 points would be the strategy.

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  52. SB i didnt sell anything because i was waiting for 34.70 to hit...i just lost the profit :*(

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  53. No thanks on the S&P, although I understand your idea. Instead, I really like what I'm seeing in the miners.

    Just biding my time for now, but looking to add to positions.

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  54. Pardon me, I thought you were chiding us for not exiting like you. I don't think it's mistake at all staying long metals, regardless of your p+l.

    Weakness will get bought, and sooner rather than later.

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  55. Gary, i understand what you mean when you say the price can ride up along the bollinger but i am talking about the special condition when most of the candle is siting outside the upper bolinger or the entire candle is outside the bolinger.

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  56. gary ,
    Do you watch RSI for SLV? short term overbought?

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  57. I don't even read what Beanie says. I just skip past his post.

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  58. Rav,
    Magnitude of penetration doesn't matter. It still doesn't change the fact that markets go up differently than they go down.

    If you try to incorporate this as a permanent strategy you will eventually get knocked off the bull and miss a big chunk of the final move.

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  59. Razvan, Selling when you reach top of Bollinger Band makes a lot of sense if you are in a trading range.

    But in a strong up move, you will most certainly be left behind.

    Since most of the time stock trading in range, you will probably have higher win ratio but lose big in stong uptrend.

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  60. DG,

    I mostly agree with you that conspiracy-or-not is irrelevant to proper decision making. But not quite. I can probably put it best by using this quote from some professional trader I read a very long time ago (don't recall where, unfortunately): "In all markets you sell the breakdowns and you buy the breakouts - except for gold and silver: there you BUY the breakdowns and you SELL the breakouts."

    Now, one could say this would apply to every bull market. Maybe so, but in the great past bull market in stocks I personally never heard anything but "Buy The Dip" - and never the above +combination+ of buy and sell. (And although I've never been into bonds, I don't recall hearing this "BTD" battle cry at all on the greatest past bull market of all, Treasuries. But perhaps that's just me.)

    Anyway, at least to me that trader's observation did really help.

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  61. Walter,
    The strategy of buying breakouts and selling breakdowns has been failing for many years now.

    Most breakouts fail and most breakdowns recover.

    Markets tend to move in a stair step fashion most of the time.

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  62. Alright I'm off to climb some rocks :)

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  63. I sure hope manipulating the PM's is a fact because with the rest of the world in chaos because of food/oil prices the manipulation will have to shift there and away from gold and silver:)

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  64. Alex: You out there today? Would you add to GPL here? Looks a little like a high-volume blowout for now, no? How do you trade such things.

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  65. sentimentrader has some statistics that I read a while ago that outright buying of breakout and selling of breakdown strategy stopped working sometime in early last decade. Only thing I know reliably work is sell rips in downtrends and buy dips in uptrend.

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  66. SB,

    At what price (silver, gold, HUI...) will you add?

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  67. I never would have thought my biggest gainer today would be short China! FXI is down 4% today. FXP is up 7%.

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  68. wow..looks like the stock market sell-off is affecting all the miners..

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  69. http://www.apeakunderthehood.blogspot.com/

    New Post - To Solve A Murder Suicide

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  70. pima,

    I typically don't focus on specific levels, so much as direction. For example, a one-day shock lower and I'd buy into that weakness (where the miners are all down big % moves). Or, I'd be just as happy to buy more at these prices, so long as the overbought RSI or stochastics corrected. I do consider price levels, but it's a secondary thought.

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  71. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  72. pima,


    One price level I pay attention to is the 50% fibonnacci retracement, although it's also a secondary consideration. I like when I'm already looking to buy and we're approaching the fib 50%, although that doesn't look likely with the miners this time around.

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  73. "Slightly wet" Is that like saying Rosanne Bar is slightly fat and ugly? :)


    SLW has not had a weekly close above this line. That would be a very positive step if it can do so.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/Jayhawk1991/folders/Jing/media/d781f26b-fa3d-4e38-87be-6ad18f8c2fb9

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  74. Ok, I need a little help with SLW options.

    TOS shows April strikes, with bid/ask and volume, but no OI. However, neither Yahoo Finance nor my broker (Firstrade for this account) are listing anything for April. So I'm assuming there are no April strikes and that TOS is stoned or something.

    Can anybody give me a clue what's going on here?

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  75. Tudor what strike do you want. I see them and been buying them today

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  76. thanks, SB.

    I added a little earlier today (more deep ITM calls), but still have dry powder. My position is large enough now, though, that I would get a bit uncomfortable if gold were to drop all the way back to the late January low of 1309, so I'm gonna sit tight till it looks like we have a daily cycle low in place.

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  77. Many of you dont care for this stuff... but for the few that do... this is a good read
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-fecks-lies-and-video-tape-or-cabal-channel

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  78. OI on April SLW showing 0 on Schwab too.

    Bob, you also posted about double margin on SLW, but on Schwab I still see SLW at 30%, what are you seeing?

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  79. speaking of volume and OI on options, what kinds of minimums do you look for when considering buying?

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  80. "slighty wet" is kinda like "barely enormous"

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  81. Poly, when I closed my March calls and entered my April calls, I saw margin given and taken away at twice my sale and purchase price. E April 43's cost me $2, but they took $4 of margin from me. Much higher than before for me.

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  82. I have Schwab, and I have open interest showing.

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  83. we have GLD and GDX showing up on the SoS list today.

    However, the numbers are not large, and the block trades number is considerably lower than the total money flow number.

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  84. Tudor,
    I believe in TOS that you can select what info you want your option screen to show.
    Go to the layout box just above the b/a and select what you want there.

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  85. I've got the OI and volume layout displayed. All the other months are fine, but the Aprils have no OI at any strike. Yahoo Finance shows nothing for April. This is weird.

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  86. To clarify, the column for OI on the Apr's is filled with zeros. (TOS)

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  87. Tudor,

    April options started trading today. So you probably won't see OI until the end of the day. I see volume for most strikes for SLW on OptionsXpress.

    Ravi

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  88. rkp,

    Thanks! That explains it. NOW I'll be able to sleep tonight.

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  89. Pima,

    I typically look for at least 500 traded daily and more importantly thin spreads of a few points. They go hand in hand of course.

    In the past I would trade SIL and GDXJ and get creamed on the spreads, especially if you wanted in or out with the prevailing trend.
    Now I still with the big ones, SPY, QQQQ, SLV, GLD. The volumes are massive, you know you're getting near fair value and allow you to fairly safely enter in stop-limits too.

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  90. technical breakdown of the move in silver. Price advanced to the 161% fib extension of the move from 31 to 26.

    daily chart

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  91. Silverstocks looks a bit like a pop and drop to me.
    Anyone changing their plans based on today's price action?

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  92. raz

    got a chart with the trendline for gold?

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  93. aaronpalang

    Do you actually read these articles ? The author, who is obviously not simple arithmetic capable, "discovers" that there is apparently more silver in the world than previously supposed, and goes immediately to the wrong conclusion that this must mean silver is underpriced.

    O.K., there is really more silver than thought, so it must be worth more?

    You actually read this tripe ?

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  94. Wes, I do, ZH has proven to be a great source for alternative news. There is a LOT of good info on that site.

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  95. jeff
    here is the gold chart. Reverses at one of the resistance level and tested 1393 which was previous resistance

    gold chart

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  96. raz
    thankyou

    gold 2300 hmm and talking about a 68 year cycle. i suppose that is elliotwave stuff. i think gary has said elliotwave is 'junk'... i think he said that

    http://www.kitco.com/kitconewsvideo/kitco_news.htm

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  97. Feels great being almost exclusively in SLV calls and AGQ today.

    I'm sure the miners will have their day, but it sure does feel like an expensive extra layer of complexity (risk) for the potential of just a couple of extra points over bullion.

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  98. Anyone adding in the final minutes of the day?

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  99. Out of my ES long. I think we are going to 1285.

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  100. You might be right David. After months of holding big put position, missed it by a few days.

    LOL. It's the way the cookie crumbles I guess.

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  101. I am holding AGQ and no miners but a small 2% position. Nevertheless I find the performance in the miners rather discouraging for silver.
    This looks like topping action in the miners today.

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  102. "Out of my ES long. I think we are going to 1285"

    that is not too bad///

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  103. The agricultural commodities are down hard, copper is down hard, paladium is down hard, the stock market is down hard. So wherever you look, everything is down hard.

    The markets that are holding up well are crude oil, gold, silver.

    Also the dollar barely budged up.

    This must be a tell. Crude, gold, silver are in strong hands. Is this the rush of money from the stock market, ags, into crude, gold and silver? The safehaven play is not the dollar, at least not for today.

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  104. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  105. hardest trade is EM.. so i take some position in EM today

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  106. Sorry I had to delete my previous comment. Dont know how to edit it.. There were two significant typos.. hence delete and repost:

    Remember the big gap down day on Gold.. when gold gapped down about 30 points... Recall what the high of the day was that day - 1396-ish.

    What was the regular hour lows today.. 1396-ish. Think WHY?

    I could not have asked for a better closing level for Gold than where it closed today.

    And for all those who are worried about me and are tracking where puts in certain names are trading... I am doing fine :-)

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  107. Basil, I thought miners were more likely to follow the overall market. I don't think todays action was unusual.

    MLMT, I am thinking WHY? Enlighten us.

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  108. Basil,

    You're sweating the small stuff. We had the biggest one day sell of in like 6 months! Gold was down $8 and Silver down over 2%.

    Most of the miners closed flat. A little perspective.

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  109. I snagged some AGQ at the open because silver was well below 33.50...I could have timed that better had I waited a few hours, but boo hoo, I have a profit cushion.

    Also got a little bit of SLW at the close since I didn't own any coming into today and it was mildly down.

    Funny, it *feels* like the metals have undergone this massive pullback because of the pre-dawn raid today.

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  110. Jeez Ohio Rob, you had to ask, eh? :)

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  111. MLMT,

    are you trying to make friends or what's the purpose of putting up these posts here? I'm not surprised by you shorting the PMs, but I am surprised that you have the urge to post here. What's the purpose? You get a kick out of being unpopular?
    If you were an unemotional trader, which you should be as a short seller, why would you care to write these posts?

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  112. Glen Neely (who expanded EW and calls it "Neowave") writes:

    "Mr. Neely explains that today’s collapse confirms the end of an old pattern and the start of a new one. This new pattern suggests a 1- to 2-year bear market has begun and will likely result in a 30+% drop in market valuation.

    While economic conditions have improved greatly since 2009’s low, NEoWave warns a new downturn (lasting 1- to 2-years) is beginning. As is always the case, markets anticipate future economic reality. While news has been improving, wave structure warns the U.S. stock market has turned a corner, setting the stage for an “echo” of the 2008/2009 financial crisis – but this time with a new twist. Instead of financial institutions and real estate markets being devastated, Mr. Neely suspects the most likely justification for this future market decline will be severe financial problems for federal, state and local governments. The result could be local and national transportation disruptions, public service problems and government employee layoffs around the country. Other circumstances that might justify a 30+% decline in the stock market could be a substantial increase in the cost of energy or a drastic increase in the value of the U.S. dollar (i.e. deflation). "

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  113. The kind of volatility that we are seeing the past few days, specially on the grains, soft commodities, oil and currencies feels like mid 2008 all over again.

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  114. Poly,

    I don't think you have a clue what I'm sweating.

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  115. Pima,

    you think Neely will be right for the first time in two years?

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  116. Basil,

    What are you sweating?

    Shalom, is it 'hello' or 'goodbye'??

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  117. IMO, Elliott Wave is just voodoo stuff.

    There is absolutely no rational explanation for it. It is an unfalsifiable theory, therefore it can´t make any predictions.

    Why would 5 waves up and 3 waves down mean something? Markets are just people trading their perceptions. It all feel like black magic.

    Also, this thing was developed by an accountant who never made much money in the markets, and now is promoted by a guy who is a psychologist but somehow thinks he is an expert at economics.

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  118. doesn't today's candle-stick pattern look like an exhaustion?

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  119. DG,

    What's your take on the action today in PM's and the miners? Any warning bells going off?

    The thing that makes me a little nervous is the possibility of the miners getting sucked down by the strong downdraft of a falling stock market (assuming stocks have indeed topped). Do you have a Plan B should that occur?

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  120. Should have included the following the in the quote from Neely:

    "Recently, Mr. Neely warned subscribers to the NEoWave Trading and Forecasting services that a “major event” was on the horizon. In preparation, Mr. Neely instructed trading customers to go short, right at last Friday’s high and close, which is currently top-tick of the month!"

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  121. @basil

    Its always good to know what the "other side" is thinking.. because quite often "other side" is right too. Thats all.

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  122. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  123. Miners looked like dog crap there at the end of day. Ah well, being up 18% gives us lots of cushion. IRA up 45% because I gambled extra big there.

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  124. Last time SLV had couple of nice big days, it pulled back sharply. (Nov, early Dec last year for example). It is completely reasonable to expect pullback in silver and consequently miners in short term.

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  125. Volume in stocks today was the highest this year. As far as the metals trade I remain unfazed, but thought I'd point it out.

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  126. Volume doesn't mean a whole lot to me b/c I don't see any predictive value in it. It's quite possible miners head lower for a few days, but that is something we all knew was coming sooner or later, if it happens at all. The plan was to buy more if given the opportunity and that is what I'll do.

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  127. David K,

    May seem like black magic to you, but the waves are there if you're willing to look.

    However, I will agree with you that Prechter and very likely Neely make a lot of money selling their newsletters. I don't know whether Neely trades or not, but Prechter has said that he himself doesn't trade because "he's too busy running his business". Indeed! (Well, if his calls were any good why wouldn't he trade them??)

    It's very difficult to make money using EW alone, I will agree with you there. Mainly because there are nearly several "alternate counts" and you don't know till after the fact which one will play out. EW is great for mapping the past! But it comes up a bit short for mapping the future.

    However, EW combined with other TA tools including cycles and sentiment might be useful. But I would put it way down on the bottom of the list of those tools.

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  128. As to why market prices unfold in waves, who the hell knows? Why do prices go up and down in cyclical patterns? Who the hell knows?

    It's part of the mystery of the markets.

    "The eye goes blind that only wants to know why."

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  129. Nike,

    I think some of the miners look like an exhaustion move.
    Look at GPL to name one, opening on the high and closing on the low. If you look at a 1 year chart and see it in context, it looks like a top to me.

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  130. Silver weekly hitting against weekly channel. So some consolidation should not be a surprise

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p33559354428&a=225767698

    BPGDM is still fairly low, so we have a while to go as Gary says.

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  131. Pima,

    I've never seen any Elliot Waves that made sense.
    These numbers are random and predict nothing. THey are put ways that already show the bias of the waver, and some times they get lucky, at about the same rate as anybody else. It's complete bogus, and you can see it in their charts.

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  132. basil,

    just because you don't understand something or have a low opinion of it, doesn't make it "bogus".

    EW may not make sense to you, but it does to a lot of folks. Some traders actually use EW to make money! Imagine that. But I believe those guys are few and far between.

    I will agree with you that some EWers have a market bias and it comes thru in the way they label the waves. That to me is a misuse of EW, and a way to bankrupt a one's account.

    I should also point out that what passes for EW is often something else. There are rules that must be followed when labeling waves, and guidelines that usually help as well. Some traders on the blogsphere break the rules and don't follow the guidelines and still call it EW. You can't judge EW on the basis of those who don't know it well enough to follow its rules. And you can't judge it on the basis of someone using it to "confirm" their market bias either.

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  133. basil,

    you mentioned today looking like an exhaustion move.

    Are you still long PM's? Do you have a plan B if it turns out that you are right and today was an exhaustion move?

    thanks!

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  134. outside reversal day in miners. I got rid of some slow movers and put more money in agq and pslv. not a bad day considering the action.

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  135. Exhaustion? What are we smoking here?

    Sil - A basket of MANY silver miners was down $0.04! That's 0.16%. It's up 10% in 8 days.

    This is going to be a long rally if today concerns you.

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  136. Pima, Yeah the action was not great. But then it was worse last November and, after a brief drop, silver made a new high. And it was worse in December and, after a few days, silver made a new high. This kind of tape action, I believe, needs to be taken into account with where we are. A rest, sure, why not after what we have done? I do not believe that such a chart pattern will do much good unless we are in fact ready to tank, and I don't see any reason to believe we are. It's just as likely we open lower tomorrow and reverse right back up. We'll see.

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  137. Poly, I was thinking the same thing. I added to AGQ April calls at the low today, and bought some more GPL.

    We also have OEX hangover from last week.

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  138. Elliot wave is not bogus, at least in the currency market. You just have to know what you are doing. I know a money manager at a multimillion dollar fund that uses only EW to time his entries and exits.

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  139. That's what one would call an exhaustion move. A powerful move up for days and weeks and then a pop and drop. SIL opened up close to the high of the day and closed at the low of the day at 25.51.
    That is the definition of an exhaustion move.
    So as far as the miners, I would not want to touch them after a day like today. If the metals themselves continue to rally in the face of possibly declining markets, I would consider ourselves very, very lucky, and for now I am staying the course; but for stocks in general (and for me that includes PM stocks) today looks like it could be a nasty turning point, unless... it isn't :)

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  140. MLMT,

    Yeah I know why. because gold closed at the middle of todays range , I can see it. If you stand back and look at the chart, its staring right at you. Now if silver can do the same, then it'll happen.

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  141. Razavan,

    I used to frequently follow popular Elliot Wavers, and I still follow up on various Elliot Wave market calls. They have all been wrong, again, and again, and again. So I don't believe that anyone can really make money off of applying Elliot Wave Principles to their trades. The guy you know must have other technicals he relies on, and then he probably throws in some wave numbers the way they fit, and will you look at that, they fit!

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  142. Basil,

    I guess it's easy to see it from any angle, so it's not a critic of anybody view, mine is just another version. But for me, I will stick with my 25% gains and continue riding this, worse case is a break even.

    But with such a head start, I'm not taking the foot of this one and no way will I get bucked off unless I stop out, which would require a significant decline than this. Until then, it's all wiggles and noise.

    The last Int cycle rally in Aug almost doubled SIL (and the others) and if I (we) sold out on such reversals (there were plenty), it would have cost us a fortune.

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  143. MLMT: Nice call so far. I was not impressed with people here when we were up this morning and people were posting "How ya doin' now?" No call to taunt a trader who is in the hole. Anyway, so far you look o.k. Are you still expecting a major tank? The reversal last fall and winter looked worse and were themselves reversed in short order. I take it you still think we're going to drop below 1300 from here?

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  144. Poly,

    would you show me a similar day during the July to November rally, because I too participated and I cannot remember any day like this where stocks of all sectors and most commodities declined unisono.
    I'd like to be wrong, and therefore my question is very genuine, if you have any data or chart to look at, that would be great. As I said I don't recall anything like that happen. The good thing, as far as I remember, about the fall rally was that one week Agriculture would correct and two weeks later PMs would correct, and then a week later a few stock sectors would correct; but not like what I've seen today.

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  145. Poly,

    would you show me a similar day during the July to November rally, because I too participated and I cannot remember any day like this where stocks of all sectors and most commodities declined unisono.
    I'd like to be wrong, and therefore my question is very genuine, if you have any data or chart to look at, that would be great. As I said I don't recall anything like that happen. The good thing, as far as I remember, about the fall rally was that one week Agriculture would correct and two weeks later PMs would correct, and then a week later a few stock sectors would correct; but not like what I've seen today.

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  146. Poly,
    I am not talking percentage outcome from close to close, but I talk about intraday declines, and I am talking about decline unisono with no stones left unturned (with metals and oil as the exception)

    ReplyDelete
  147. basil,

    You wrote:

    "I used to frequently follow popular Elliot Wavers, and I still follow up on various Elliot Wave market calls. They have all been wrong, again, and again, and again."

    You yourself said that some EWers approach the wave count with a market bias. The fact that the uber bears have been wrong again and again is not a reflection of EW. It's a reflection of someone being stubborn and clinging to their uber bearish view and then using EW to "justify" that view.

    Did these "popular EW's" that you followed ever post any bullish counts?

    I believe the very large EW counts that I have seen all over the web since the 2008 have been wrong, and only a very few EWers have come to that conclusion even now.

    In any case, EW for me is pretty much academic at this point, something to do when I'm looking at charts and maybe a little bored. I don't use it much for trading (only very occasionally as confirmation).

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  148. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  149. Today is day 16 of the daily cycle. It is still à bit early to begin working into à daily cycle low. This is still à right translated cycle and any sell off should hold above the prior bottom.

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  150. "outside reversal day in miners. I got rid of some slow movers and put more money in agq and pslv. not a bad day considering the action."


    This was my thinking today. I was thinking about cutting a few and moving it into AGQ. Even SLW I was tempted to scale back a tad. I don't have a huge expose to the POS, just around 30% AGQ.

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  151. pimaCanyon,

    I remember that you are quite knowledgable about EW, but I guess that we both came to the same conclusion, which is that it's not worthwhile bothering too much about EW.

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  152. The move in gold and silver isn´t the problem, at least in my view. What has me worried a little bit, is that the kind of action that we are seeing in the grains, the soft commodities, oil and currencies look very similar to what I saw in mid 2008.

    But I still think the most important driver of this market is the Dollar. I am watching the EURUSD very closely, so far the uptrend in the Euro is still intact. But if it closes below 1.35 I will definitely get out of all my PM positions, because in my opinion a close below 1.35 at this point is very bearish for the Euro (bullish for the dollar).

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  153. Bring up stock charts, you will see a good handful on most of the miners and SLV.

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  154. Basil,

    You don't get exhaustion from a 10 day move. The RSI, bullish %, and sentiment are all far from exhaustion. It's simply a profit taking event as we've stretch way too far too quickly, IMO.

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  155. david?

    your saying that if the euro tanks, the dollar is going to rise and then what.. the riseing dollar is going to destroy the c wave?

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  156. The thing with EW is that it has a 100% track record when applied to past patterns, yet only 50% when applied to future prediction.

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  157. euro vs dollar

    a race to the bottom

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  158. if the dollar does perk up, how much of a lead could it take?

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  159. David K,

    Are there not times in the past where gold and the dollar have risen concurrently?

    But in your opinion that would be a low probability event, and that's the reason you would dump your PM positions (if the Euro closed below 1.35), right?

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  160. I know a trader that has made a lot of money supposedly by using EW. 10 years ago his trading account was about a million dollars, today he is worth more than a billion. I know this for a fact because he is very close to one of my best friends, who has told me over the years some of his calls in real time and they have been outstanding calls. The guy is simply amazing.

    I started looking at EW a couple of years ago because of him. But after looking at EW, I can say that the reason he makes so much money isn´t because of EW, but because he has an incredible intuition about the markets (a mixture of talent and experience) and he uses EW according to his bias about the markets, which come from his uncanny intuition.

    IMO, EW is just like the bible, just like we don´t get our morals from the bible, we simply pick and chose whatever we read from the bible and fits in with whatever moral intuitions we already have, with EW is just the same. Since it is something so subjective, if someone has a good intuition about the markets, he will end up with a good wave count that fits his intuition about where the market is going.

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  161. gary

    maybe a good question for you. why does gold and dollar move up and down at the same time. is it only when its safe haven events, or other times also?

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  162. basil,

    you wrote:

    "I guess that we both came to the same conclusion, which is that it's not worthwhile bothering too much about EW"

    yep, we are on the same page there.

    (except to my detriment I have found it hard to give it up completely. but almost without exception whenever I do that--try to count waves and trade them--I end up short changing myself on this PM bull. I hope I have learned that lesson--so far on the move up from the late Jan low I have not succumbed to that temptation, so there's hope :-)

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  163. pimaCanyon,

    PMs and the Dollar could definitely rise together. But I would be very unconfortable holding PMs if I thought the dollar would be rising for the next few months.

    But that´s just me, it has nothing to do with cycles, just my reading of the Euro right now.

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  164. Agree with DG re: MLMT. That is his real money at stake and I don't think he should be flamed for having a contradictory opinion. With his method he is able to spot 'possible' inflection points and that is valuable to us all.

    Beanie on the other hand...

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  165. The problem with MLMT is that he is mostly here to antagonize, so naturally people respond agressively to his posts.

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  166. DG, gold up at pit, and USERX down today. Let's see what happens tomorrow but remember this usually works better when it's the inverse; also we had USERX closed yesterday and Globex open and I don't know how to backtest for similar situations as I'm sure they're few and far between.

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  167. Basil he was employed by a broker i was using and he was posting his trades before executing them so it wasnt just word of mouth. Again it was in the currency markets so i dont know if it applies to other markets.

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  168. Isnt the fault with MLMT that he just throws out arbitrary numbers without any backing, theory or justification?

    I would never flame anybody for a bad call, but don't just throw out numbers and comments that appear to be motivated to "go against the crowd".

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  169. I have to say, I am surprised by the level of anxiety the last 24 hours has sparked in some people. If silver dares to pull back for a day, or--horrors--two days, some of you are going to be flipping out.

    What has changed in the world?

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  170. mlmt of course can say what he wants and we are taking the other side of his trade BUT it's the watch out
    and never again stuff the seem to bother folks. I think it's good for the board. If you are that easily rattled then you better re-evaluate your position.

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  171. David K. Why 135? I see a prior low at 134 and a bit. Is it because of the line I have drawn? Seems like the 134 low is more important (?) (see this link)

    http://img821.imageshack.us/i/xeu.png/

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  172. Vuvvy: Funny I just looked at that two minutes ago and wondered if you would post about it. Seems to me it is a confirm/non-confirm situation. I bet it would work with GDX as well. That is, if GDX is up and GLD down that's bullish, and if GLD up and GDX down it's bearish.

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  173. I'm really not anxious, just thinking about tweaking things. I put my inlaws into SLW, SIL and GDXJ a few weeks back and GDXJ has sucked.

    The price jump in silver coupled with the overnight trashing and then the miners (esp SLW) reversing off 4-5% up positions to finish negative is a bit concerning. I'm wondering if dumping some decent gains in AG, AXU and EXK into AGQ might be worth considering.

    Cat-you follow Turd's blog. I think some of our expectations (Dan Norcini's posts) seemed to be for an utter explosion to the upside this week. Seeing SLW roll over like a little girl doesn't fit those expectations. We will see what Wednesday brings/

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  174. I agree with David.
    MLMT is not doing himself or others a favor writing doom-ish posts like "its coming...it's coming!" (1388 that is) or "Monday is a big gap down day". That's just trying to spook people and make them feel uncomfortable and enjoying that part.
    As for his trade itself, he might turn out to be right...
    or not. And I wish him that he'll make money as much as I wish all of us to make money.

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  175. DG,

    You are right that there is an important low at 1.3430 or so. But in my opinion, if the Euro is going higher today should be the start of this uptrend. Today looks like a classic shakeout, the Euro dropped really hard to 1.3525 and then quickly retraced all its losses for the day. So in my mind, if we are going higher, this is it, trading below today´s low would be very bearish in my opinion. Today´s low was 1.3525, but I give the trade a little bit of room, so that´s why I said 1.35.

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  176. david k

    just curious
    so if you dumped all the pm postions, then what. how would you jump back in? i was fighting temptation to sell on contract today and just buy it back at 10 dollars cheaper.. but that is chump change. well i would be glad for a thousand, but i often blow those moves.

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  177. What's the better stop? HUI at 518? or GDX at 55.22? Is the HUI a little slower than GDX? If so then GDX could get you out faster. On the other hand if we barely hit the stop HUI may be better and will keep you in. For HUI to stop we drop 5.66% for GDX its 5.5%. Collectively we have enough stops set at these that it could provide temptation for someone who wanted to pull them out.

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  178. Considering the carnage and geopolitical issues today, the dollar performed extremely poorly.

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  179. Fair enough on MLMT, that he writes like he's just trying to tweak people. How about it MLMT? How about becoming a decent citizen of this blog instead of a pain/troll? Just post your opinions and have reasoned exchanges with people. No need to pretend you are Jason or Freddie here.

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  180. Ok. I will try to watch out for how I comment here.. Thanks for the feedback. All taken in good spirit.

    WRT to PMs, I still think the first move will be down to sub-1300 (minimum) before up (if any). Biggest sign is a very strong negative divergence with miners (inspite of the equity indices painting a higher high compared to when gold was last at these levels).

    Yes, in between Gold may get spikes to the upside due to news events.. there are gravy for those long and are used to shake out those short.

    Going back to 1396 that I have mentioned so many times. The day we gapped down big on gold, 1396 was the high in NYSE hours. Today by gapping over that level and HOLDING above that level, almost anyone who managed to short gold was killed. AND they got a lot of people buying the dip as well... If gold stays here for another day or two above 1396 without really breaching today's NYSE hour highs, it will get really bearish and there will be a potential for island top (which in fact exists tomorrow as well in case gold gaps down).

    As for silver, I think silver is in no man's land.. so any kind of TL or technical analysis etc will be useless. One can use levels in gold to enter/exit positions in silver at this point.

    IMO the equity markets are on the verge of a nice sized correction... which will likely bring PMs down...

    Because of the action in dollar, I am taking the sub-1260 scenario off the table for gold for now. One will have to see the action that materializes below 1310 and then re-evaluate.

    A definite possibility is that the down move in equities will really scare Ben to put printing presses into over-drive and we *might*, just might see the scenario that Gary has been talking about... However, IMO that is a lower probability scenario. Now, if you ask me how I assign lower probability.. well I have no answer... it is based on gauging the sentiment right now - that is why I say that we will have to re-evaluate when gold is sub-1310...

    For now, I believe that a very high probability scenario is that gold will go down along with equities and gold will see sub-1310 soon (= next 2 weeks).

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  181. MLMT,

    why aren't you shorting stocks instead of gold?

    Also, don't you think it's misleading to talk about gaps and island reversal in gold? Gold, unlike stocks, are traded around the clock and around the world. So there is no gap as whatever gold price we start with in the morning got there in overnight trades elsewhere.

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  182. MLMT,

    Thanks for explaining your position. Greatly appreciated.

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  183. DG, I've tried it in many other combos but it never seems to work. Only pit and USERX.It's bewildering sometimes to see small one penny moves in Userx and sub one dollar gold moves that set this system off.Anyway, it's working so far and hopefully we are seeing gold forming a bull flag here over the next several days.

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  184. at least hearing the postion i can clearly see he is full of marshmellows

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  185. @basil

    equity futures are also traded around the clock...

    technically speaking, you are right that I should use GLD instead of GC when talking of island reversal.. But I can tell you that the vast majority of volume happens during NYSE hours... and thats why if you limit your chart to just NYSE hours, then talking of island reversal makes sense..

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  186. Jeff: I think what MLMMT says is reasonable. The question is whether Gary's view of the dollar collapse and the IT bottom being in takes precedence. There is lots of analysis of MLMT's that is right sometimes and not other times. If we are going to spike up his view will look right for a day or three. Gaps and such will not stop a raging bull anymore than a trendline will. Lots of people look at these things so it works for a few days (like Gary's crawling pattern) and then blows through. So, to my view, he is basically saying the strong bull case is wrong and the gaps, lines, etc. will rule. We'll see.

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  187. One thing that worries me was the SP500 VIX.

    Today was off the charts!

    : O

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  188. At least you have providing your rationale, thanks. If you're going puts on Silver on just that, I would recommend you get out quick if it doesn't work!

    On a side note, big day for equities tomorrow, a real show me the money day.

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  189. Well, after seeing the action yesterday I thought I would wake up to heavenly bliss but I guess things weren't that bad considering how the rest of the market fared. SLW was definitely disappointing though. After reading the weekend post a couple of times, I did take the opportunity to finally add a large chunk to HZU. I know I should of put more in when Gary gave the signal but I just waited and waited and waited. I still have dry powder left so I can put more money to work if things go sour. I just have to remind myself to BUY THE DIP and keep focused on the bigger picture.

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  190. Sorry, a typo. I meant "There is lots of analysis *LIKE* MLMT's that is right sometimes and not other times."

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  191. I can see why MLMT never posted his rationale before.

    I'll stick with Gary's cycle analysis, thanks for playing.

    Good luck shorting gold and silver.

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  192. DG, there are no gaps in gold. What else do you like about the post? To say that any non NYMEX move in gold is a gap is rather silly, IMO.

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