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Friday, February 25, 2011

Rebate

I've known this has been a problem for quite some time but have just chosen to mostly ignore it. I think it's now time to address the problem of subscribers forwarding the nightly reports.

Realistically there's no way to police this kind of theft, and if you just want to forward one or two reports to a friend so they can sample the SMT I have no problem with that.

I do have a problem when someone copies the report and forwards it to 20 of his investing buddies though.  

I think we can all agree that the price of the newsletter is chump change, especially compared to the profits we made last year or even so far this year for that matter.

I've kept the cost of a subscription down to a reasonable level to where virtually anyone can easily afford a yearly subscription. So price really shouldn't be an issue. 

So here's what I'm going to do. I'm going to give everyone an incentive not to pass on the reports freely. I'm going to rebate $50 for every friend or associate you send to the SMT that signs up for a yearly membership.

If you sign up 4 people your membership for the year is free. If you sign up 8 people not only is your membership free but you will make $200 (go buy some silver Eagles).

They have to sign up for a year. They will need to tell me at the time who referred them and give me your email address so I can deposit the funds in your Paypal account.

There will be no limit to how many people you can refer but I'm not going to try and keep track of this on a yearly basis and I'm not going to do retro rebates. The program will begin today. It's just going to be a one time rebate of $50 whenever you refer a new subscriber for a yearly membership. 


Hopefully this will be enough incentive to cure this problem.

758 comments:

  1. Nice Gary. I've forwarded a copy or 2 to a buddy maybe a hand full of times. The goal is to let them see what you do so they can hopefully sign up.

    Also, I've promoted your service extensively out there in blog land. Kitco Precious Mining forum knows all about you as I've posted many links. I know quite a few who have come here. I do it because you have been so helpful and the service is peanuts for what you get.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Wes: A serious question---Are you always all in on your best idea? If not and you have a positive expectancy for a non-correlated idea that shows up, would you not take it? I am rarely all in so maybe that's the difference.

    Alex: Thanks for the feedback on GPL. Half of today's volume is me! (j/k)

    ReplyDelete
  3. Alex-Right, I'm not too worried about EXK & AXU. Just wanted a bit of GPL.


    Also, Tim Knight posted a new short yesterday. EGO if anyone needs a new gold long. :)

    He also posted KOG as a LONG. Careful Alex.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Gary you need to give Beanie a free membership to keep him from getting burned in the stock market

    ReplyDelete
  5. 90 min system just took it's 8th straight loss on gold futures short trades.Incredible strength since the bottom in low 1300's.

    ReplyDelete
  6. DG

    haha, I thought that was you!! (J/K'ing also).

    I posted to you one last time on the last page , so you can go read it there, ok. It has to do with adding or tracking GPL

    ReplyDelete
  7. Nice move this morning, Silver almost retraced back to the 1pm sell off in less than 24 hours.

    Classic.

    GPL really showing strength, newly listed on NYSE I believe is having a big impact. If it could get over $5 it could be lights out.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Gary, if you are seeing multiple IP addresses access the report, more than there are subscribers, don't forget people alo use iPads, cell phones, etc. all under the same user name.

    For those forwarding more than a report or two, Gary has kept the price reasonable so that everyone can subscribe. By stealing the reports, which is what you are doing, you disrespect him and his efforts. That's not good Karma to have out there for someone who undoubtely has made you many times the subscription fee in profits.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Gary-

    I know this is a naive thought process...but the need for your post really pisses me off. I am appalled that any subscriber would be so unethical as to forward your newsletters on. The price is more than fair, and anyone who would steal the content simply doesn't have character. And you shouldn't have to offer $ to get folks to behave ethically.

    And as for subs that forward on a sample issue or two- I even have a problem with THAT. Gary, you are good enough to offer access to the archives and a number of those are free- enough to see how your letters work. If those free reports and the recommendation of a friend aren't enough for someone to subscribe, then the reader is hopeless. And if someone doesn't have $200 for your newsletter, they should not be investing.

    Sorry for the rant, but it REALLY pisses me off when people take advantage of others in this way.

    Whew.....

    ReplyDelete
  10. Jayhawk,

    I think I saw your links on kitco and came over and eventually signed up with Gary.

    This was last fall sometime.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Gary is a businessman first, he isn't here for charity. He does a superb job obviously, but the post is also about business and a smart move at that.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Alex,

    IYO, how many shares of GPL, AXU, etc. can you "safely" hold and not face liquidity issues in case of panic?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  13. Eventually when too much people are using the same system it stops working. Everyone needs to keep that in mind when forwarding reports. You're only hurting yourself, and stealing at the same time!A trait many successful traders have is that they NEVER share their trading methods.

    ReplyDelete
  14. I bought one of my brokers a sub so maybe we would be on the same page

    ReplyDelete
  15. Shalom,

    (this got lost at the end of the last thread)

    Thank you for the info. I've never switched brokers but I think the time has come to go with IB now that I'm using margin.

    Stupid question that I didn't see answered in their FAQ: When I close my account at Scottrade, is there a way I can carry over the cost basis in my shares to IB?

    In other words, what I don't want is to have to sell my positions, cash out, and thus lose my "strong hand" status.

    ReplyDelete
  16. INTERN

    That question really isnt easy to answer,unless I go by personal experience. GPL is now getting some serious volume, so I dont think anyone would have a problem unloading a few thousand shares if they felt the need. Its trading in the millions / day now.

    I have tried to quickly sell AXU 's top in the past and sold 3000 at a market order and got all the sell 'lots' within 2 or 3 cents.

    hope that helps,, or maybe someone else has a better answer. :)

    ReplyDelete
  17. DG, if you end up at IB, you can come over to the dark side and trade futures too:)

    ReplyDelete
  18. If you had a little more of a sophisticated site it would only allow a certain number of logins to the nightly/weekend reports, and also they would be in a format where the text and charts can't be copied and pasted- this is pretty standard in the internet whole nowadays for services such as yours.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Cat-

    They will move the funds with your positions in tact. You will be off line for 2-3 days meaning you won't be able to see during the transition but your positions will hold.

    I'm switching some of my stuff to Options House. I see a lot of people like IB...I may look into them as well. TOS is a rip off imo.

    TJ-I didn't see the harm in sending a report to a non-TA buddy who is a gold & silver bull. I've been talking about Gary's site for a few years and cycles...So it's good for Gary's business to inform others. Most people don't buy in...I know it took me a year or so to trust the method. I'm pretty sure Gary's got 5-10 or more subs because of the word I put out there.

    I highly doubt this is going "mainstream" and as a result "it wont work anymore!" By the time it does, the bull market will be over.

    ReplyDelete
  20. I posted NLR as a trade right at its low yesterday. I never know if anyone takes any given trade idea and don't want to clog up the board with useless info, so if anyone takes one, feel free to ask a follow up question. On that one, since it's just a toy, I am planning to hold until the gap fills (or break even...whichever comes first)

    ReplyDelete
  21. Alex,

    Helps a lot, thank you very much.

    Make money, protect capital.

    ReplyDelete
  22. I was just pondering about the move in silver last night and I thought normally if I wasn't old turkey (new thing), I would of most likely sold a couple of days ago to lock in profits. So then we have yesterday after the big dump, I would be so thankful and patting myself on the back and of course I probably wouldn't have bought anything back thinking it would drop a lot more. So I thought what would screw the people that sold or got stopped out yesterday? If we started going back up again today and not look back causing people to chase again. Oh it would be nice if that was happening now but of course we won't know until later.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Gary. Just to let you know what some of your subscribers might be doing.... I do share the subscription with my husband. We are a team and have joint accounts. We also have two desk tops and 4 lap tops.

    We have done well with our investments largely thanks to you. We have also learned a lot about investing. In terms of giving away your premium reports, we have share one or two premium reports PLUS a link to your site to friends and family. A few of them have signed up for your service.

    We respect your work and your fee is so affordable.

    Please people - don't ruin a good thing!

    ReplyDelete
  24. Damon Vickers on the dollar:
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1817702861&play=1

    ReplyDelete
  25. Catbird,

    You just need to fill out some paperwork at your new brokerage house and ask them to transfer what you have in kind.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Robert, there's always a way for people to steal content ... screen prints would work as a last resort.
    Bottom line ... people should be subscribing. I shared with a friend for a week ... people need to see current content to be convinced ... and then told him to pay up for his own sub.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Robert,

    It's impossible to stop people from copying the reports. Even if the select or right click is disabled all you have to do is hit the print screen button on your keyboard and you can paste it in a word doc.

    The most you can do is track the IP the usernames are coming from but even that wouldnt be helpful as some access the site from various locations work/home/cell/internet cafe etc.

    I personally think Gary is charging too little for his advice. If the annual fee was $1000 people would be less likely to give it away for free or they might split the subscription $500/each.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Thanks Jayhawk and Ryan.

    Shalom: I searched the IB site and found the explanation.

    ReplyDelete
  29. I second Vuvvy's opinion. You are only hurting yourself by stealing.

    Hi Gary,
    Is it possible that the PM cycles will be changed if enough people follow them. According to quantum physics that to observe is to disturb it is certainly possible. Will you ever consider closing the subscription to new members and limiting access to the blog at one point in the future to preserve the viability and validity of your analysis?

    ReplyDelete
  30. i cannot believe people are doing this and thus spoil it for others, inscription is not expensive, mario.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Jayhawk

    Curse you...you've jinxed my KOG!

    I think its just a gap fill and I bought it below the gap, but I wanted to sell and buy more P.M.'s SOON.

    You are a very bad man :(

    (J/K obviously)

    ReplyDelete
  32. OH and BTW ... my friend ... cheap bastard did not subscribe ... some people are very very cheap. I don't send him anything any more ... not even advice.
    I say GOOD ... like vuvvy says too many people might spoil it for us.
    I say keep it quiet ... sorry Gary ... it's a great service and I don't want to share it :).
    If you you don't have enough subs to make it worth your while ... raise the price ... I'm happy to pay it.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Anyone think we are going to get the same downdraft like yesterday later this afternoon. It seems like its flatlining like yesterday.

    ReplyDelete
  34. when Gary is ready to "retire" i think he should close off membership to new subscribers and keep the existing ones with a higher premium. This will save him a lot of time from having to enter to member data and answer all the noob questions regarding every minute aspect of investing.

    ReplyDelete
  35. This is why we can't have nice things.

    ReplyDelete
  36. Gurvir,

    I'm aware that you can print the screen and copy and paste it in a word document- I just don't think as many people, probably much fewer, would be taking the time to do that versus just highlighting and pasting. It would take considerably more time because you'd have to do many screen shots and make sure they don't overlap.

    That said I personally don't share my investing ideas with people because I'm not done buying and do believe in supply/demand.

    ReplyDelete
  37. I personally think this blog should also be members only. I believe strongly that the member content is just as valuable and that non-members who can see all this chat might think ... why subscribe when I can just read it on the blog?!

    ReplyDelete
  38. I don't understand you guys who want to 'negotiate' margin rates with your broker. Here's how it appears to me:

    You've been doing business with someone for years and found out they are screwing you over.

    Instead of dumping them hard, you look around and ask others who is honest and fair.

    Then you go back to the broker that is screwing you over and ask them to be more fair and nice like the other brokers.

    They say "oops...sorry that you caught us. *Mistake* on our part. What if we screw you a bit less - closer to those honest guys?"

    And then you guys say "Sure, I guess that's better"

    It's unbelievable to me.

    ReplyDelete
  39. Re:"If the annual fee was $1000 people would be less likely to give it away for free " - I think that the higher the price the MORE likely people will share. Please don't give Gary any crazy ideas! :)

    ReplyDelete
  40. TJ, I agree. Gary's nightly report is the best deal on the planet, we're paying peanuts compared to what he's helping us make in the PM markets.

    It's great if we can let our friends know about it, but if they are too lazy to read Gary's free reports that he always has available on the premium site or too cheap to fork over $25 for a month's sub to give them real time access, then let them eat stocks.

    ReplyDelete
  41. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  42. Yes ... if the price gets too high then people will just form groups and share the cost ... there's no way around it ... just stop sharing it please.

    ReplyDelete
  43. I like the private forum idea.

    Gary-you do give a ton of insight via these blog posts about what you are seeing. Also, you post "portfolio change" on the public blog and in the comments someone will say "nice job switching to SLW over GDXJ" or "so are you adding leverage to 130% now", etc. I know a few folks try and weed through the public blog for tips. I'm sure end up wasting a ton of time responding to guys like TimandJennie and MLMT coming here dropping fear bombs on the subs.

    ReplyDelete
  44. SB,

    You doing anything today? Or holding out for lower prices before adding more?

    ReplyDelete
  45. I don't think anybody should forward any copies of SMT. Gary makes enough known in his new post each day to see that value and bring in new customers. Sending out the private report is theft, plain and simple, and if caught, Gary should cut them off permanently.

    What kind of person can't afford, or refuses to pay $200/year? And for those that are very, very cheap...fuck 'em, it doesn't mean Gary should be stolen from.

    ReplyDelete
  46. Anyone here use Options House? I'm looking into IB now...I may switch to both.

    ReplyDelete
  47. Couldn't agree more with Vuvvy!!!

    The more people follow this blog or subscribe the more crowded the trade gets. A blog needs to be a niche event. If it's too crowded it will defeat the purpose of this blog, which is to make money for a select group of followers.

    If, at some point, the amount of subscribers (or of those who get to read the reports) grows beyond a certain means, this blog will become a contra indicator. So let's not go viral, please!!!

    ReplyDelete
  48. SB,

    you have a point there, yet again :)

    ReplyDelete
  49. TZ: It seems to me there are many things you do not understand, either because you do not understand human nature, or you are so locked into seeing things your own way that you cannot relate to other perspectives. I would find it "unbelievable" how you can be so, but I have met others like you over the years and I for one try to learn from the world around me.

    ReplyDelete
  50. Gary, if you let people send out some reports to supposedly get you more business, it will get abused no matter what they promise. If I caught them one time, I'd clip their subscription for life.

    Just like trading allows us to bend the rules "just this once", letting people distribute any more of your work than the homepage report will only get abused.

    ReplyDelete
  51. I've gone round and round as to whether I should comment on the blog, especially if it pertains to info only available in the nightly reports.

    On one hand I don't want people to lose money or a profitable position even if they aren't subscribers, but on the other hand many of you are paying for the newsletter so it's not fair to comment about the nightly reports here for everyone to see.

    From now on if you have questions about the nightly reports send me an email and I will try to answer your question.

    I will no longer comment about subscriber content on the blog.

    ReplyDelete
  52. the private blog sounds good for us subs, but may not be the best business idea for Gary.

    Here's why: I read the comments on this blog for two or three months, mainly looking for Gary's comments. Then I signed up. So the comments on the blog are what convinced me to sign up, and I suspect other folks may have done the same thing--looked at these comments for a while before signing up.

    The thing is: there are a ton of newsletters and private blogs out there. Traders want to know they are not signing up for yet another hit-and-miss newsletter. So this comment section may serve the purpose of convincing prospective new subs that Gary's nightly report is indeed a good deal.

    ReplyDelete
  53. Well...I apologize Gary for doing that a couple times with my one friend. He's a fundamental analysis guy so it's like a deer in headlights when I talk cycles and TA to him.

    I log on here from home, coffee shop, work etc...

    DOC also told us it was ok to send a report or 2 out to a friend so I figured Gary would be cool with a one time deal. Like I said, I've brought some good people here and will continue to do so...I don't even want the rebates.

    ReplyDelete
  54. GARY,

    Big flaw with your pay site:

    The newsletter pages (the text) are behind the login screen. A person must login to view the text.

    BUT, the images are on a different config on your server where they do NOT require a login to retrieve.

    Thus...If a person copies the text and links from your site to another person, that person will be able to retrive the charts without having to login.

    Example: this is from last night's report:

    http://smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/gold-PF.png

    anybody reading here can bring it up - no login.

    Talk to your tech guy.
    Tell him you want the charts(uploads) under the same login/password config as the text pages.

    You should also then keep track of the number of views using each login. Any user showing 2 or 4 or 7 views each night is clearly sharing with multiple people.

    Just turn them off and refund the difference. (On the subscription or main site page say you "reserve the right to cancel subscriptions").

    ReplyDelete
  55. DG,

    Are you going to hold your SPY or sold already?

    ReplyDelete
  56. Gary,

    I understand your point, but that'll diminish the quality of the blog quite a bit and I for one wouldn't know why I would then visit this blog at all.

    ReplyDelete
  57. Gary,

    I'm sorry that you're dealing with that aspect of doing such a great job. Its troubling how common it is that people take advantage of good faith efforts by acts of disprespect and greed. My sense though, is that in general those whose actions are not in integrity have a lesser ability to manage their thoughts and emotions, and that those who act in integrity are going to be more able to understand and profit from the human emotions of greed and fear as they play out in the market place.

    I want to say that I appreciate your work. 200.00 a year is a steal. I'm sorry that you're finding it necessary to offer your newsletter for less in an attempt to curb theft. Hopefully this will increase your legitimate readership as you hope.

    ReplyDelete
  58. Yes, it is impossible to always prevent someone from copying, but you can make it harder than a simple copy and paste (which is all it is now due to the images not requiring a login) so that the person having to do the work each night might say "hey, get your own sub cause this isn't worth it for me".

    ReplyDelete
  59. oa92: I plan to hold until the SPX makes a new high, or unless the mkt shows me a reason to sell. If I were bearish I'd have flipped it when we were up 1%, but I'd rather sell at break-even now and take a shot at a bigger gain.

    ReplyDelete
  60. Is there a way through blogger that allows you only to view comments with a password? Other than that, I vote for the blog to be hosted on the pay site. Your running commentary throughout the day is a wonderful service and should not be free to the masses, but I for one, would greatly miss it. I am not the type to send an email - since I often don't know what my question is until I see it verbalized by someone else and answered by you.

    ReplyDelete
  61. I really believe you were doing a pretty fine balancing act Gary, between what to share and what extra the subs get. I also read your blog for awhile before subscribing, so understand you need to offer up something to potential subs to pique their interest. You've done well there, and the $5 offers for mini-subscription is great to close the deal for anybody that wants to go the next step.

    Personally, I would be very stingy with giving friends access b/c not only did I have to pay (and they don't), but it's also screwing the G-man over. if we ruin Gary's project or give him incentive to quit, then what do we have?

    People that give away the SMT are screwing me too, and I HATE criminals to the core, we all know that! LOL

    ReplyDelete
  62. Gary,

    I do also understand that you want to grow your business, but I do believe that, as you grow it, it'll become less valuable. I mean, silver will go to the moon regardless, first and foremost you are following a trend and don't producer the trend. However, your approach to trading in and out of the silver bull at certain cycle points will become obsolete, because too many people will think and act the same way.

    ReplyDelete
  63. Gary, instead of not commenting on the blog why not make it members-only?
    Is there any value added by allowing non-member access?

    ReplyDelete
  64. Lastly, we don't want Gary wasting time and energy on these issues. Less time managing subscribers=better quality research, IMO.

    ReplyDelete
  65. I'm sorry, I didn't mean to have the blog hosted on the pay site, but the blog comment area - like a forum.

    ReplyDelete
  66. basil,

    Don't worry about it not working as effectively in the future. Even subs have a hard time following good advice as we've seen over the last year or so!

    ReplyDelete
  67. Pseudo ... that is an excellent point ... other people's questions are vital to this blog and this subscription.

    ReplyDelete
  68. Pseudopersona,

    one subscriber only blog makes sense. I don't see why there should be two blogs. It's one or the other.

    ReplyDelete
  69. I often get questions on the blog that determine what I write in the nightly reports. So you are welcome to comment as you like. If it's something that needs to be answered I will just post that I will answer it in that night's report.

    ReplyDelete
  70. "Sharing" other people's work is stealing. If you're doing it you're a common thief.

    What's worse is that Gary has been very generous on the public blog. If you read it for any length of time you know that $200 is pocket change compared to what he's helped he's made for everyone here.

    ReplyDelete
  71. what would be the value to an open blog if there'd be already a subscriber blog? What subscriber would care to post on the open blog? Who'd be there to talk about what? If Gary doesn't comment and no subscriber leaks information to the open blog, that blog would be entirely useless and obsolete.

    ReplyDelete
  72. Also, since you are the leader of this community, you are the voice of reason that we hear above all others. If you leave us to our own devices, a power vacuum will develop when there is a panic and we might accidentally start listening to the loudest voices like mlmt and beanie. I probably would have sold out of my position 10x's over if you hadn't come on here talking everyone down every time.

    ReplyDelete
  73. MFN looks really good with todays activity.

    Also, to chime in on the subject of Blog ,Subs, etc

    I have in the long ago past subscribed to Clive maund, and one other newletter & Gold report that I will leave nameless.

    Then I saw a report on Kitco I beleieve by "Toby Conner" (Gary) and it led me to this blog after time. After reading this blog through July, I then decided to sign up, because i saw that Gary COULD and would take the time to answer any questions. No matter what the question, he tried to answer it. THAT helped me to see that he had conviction in his sub reports ( Clive would answer emails, but it got to be too much for him, I think). So seeing this, AND on the blog I heard about and read his free reports -I subscribed.

    The trouble with answering the quesions through email, Gary, is that on here, one person asks, and others with the same question are satisfied. Answering through email , you will answer the same question 100 times. 5 different questions lead to 500 emails from 100 different people. agghh

    ReplyDelete
  74. Gary,

    good suggestion, and lot's of notes for you to make as you go through the blog, because there will be lots of questions. :)

    ReplyDelete
  75. Yeah Basil, I didn't mean have the blog hosted on the pay site and here. I meant have an open comments/forum area on the pay site where Gary could comment instead of on here.

    ReplyDelete
  76. Pseudo,

    good point! That's exactly the value of the blog. At least it is to me.

    ReplyDelete
  77. I'll just try to use my best judgement. If people are freaking out over something I consider of no consequence I'll do what I can to calm the situation. But I'm not going to discuss cycles or sentiment on the blog anymore.

    ReplyDelete
  78. Good points pimaCanyon, I agree with you.

    I have actually known about Gary's blog for a few years (found it through the Slope) but it wasn't until the 3rd quarter of last year that I became a subscriber.

    As I became more interested in the PMs I found myself visiting the site more frequently. Eventually, the positive remarks from the blog were what sold me on Gary's service and I haven't looked back.

    I was also made aware of the Doc's site at the same time as Gary's but it was definitely Gary's public blog (and the free reports) that sold me. If you ask me, your blog is your best marketing channel.

    Having said that, you can garner enough info from the blog comments to parse your overall thesis, *especially* when people ask pointed questions about your reports. Subscribers/commenters need to keep that in mind.

    ReplyDelete
  79. Gary -- how about drawing a line in the sand and only offering new subscriptions to people recommended by the existing 'old' subscribers?

    ReplyDelete
  80. Gary: I appreciate that it is very annoying for people to forward your stuff, and I can say I have never once sent a single item, yet I believe the current model is working well overall. I too read the blog for some time before subscribing. It is irritating to have people steal the content, but the actual damage is small outside of the annoyance factor. If it gets too widespread, or if you get so popular that you start moving markets, that's of course a problem. But otherwise, like shoplifting, it's a cost of doing business. Trying to get shoplifting too close to zero will just lose customers and create new extra headaches for the store owner. Reminders, scolding, pleading, death threats, etc. from time to time should help. I am NOT suggesting it is not reprehensible, but we don't want the cure to be worse than the disease just because its existence is so irritating.

    ReplyDelete
  81. on a side note, i want to ask every one to chip in so we can buy MLMT a subscription to Garys service. This way he can hopefully learn not to short a bull market.

    ReplyDelete
  82. Gary,

    I have to say that I come to blog to read your comments along with several others. It does add extreme value to the subscription and I don't think it should be free. I think it should be private. I feel that a lot of nightly newsletter information is already leaked on the blog. I mean it's already enough for a teaser with your public posts. I think a lot of people are getting enough information from the blog without subscribing because I know I was. Honestly, I wanted to subscribe because I didn't want you to stop and I wanted to give something back to you. I think it's a good start if everyone would not disclose anything in the newsletter.

    ReplyDelete
  83. I like the idea of a private forum run by Gary that isn't owned and archived forever by google.

    ReplyDelete
  84. Enough said, can we talk Silver again, back up 3% today :)

    ReplyDelete
  85. Another option would be to charge non-subscribers to Gary's letter a reduced rate for participating in this blog, say $50 per year. Those individuals would find out what people were investing in, and perhaps hints of what Gary was saying, but that would be about it.

    I think most of these people would end up subscribing anyway. I was surprised to learn non-subscribers could access this blog for free.

    Gary, I don't think you would want to get involved in answering dozens of emails every day. You have enough on your plate it seems to me.

    ReplyDelete
  86. Razvan,

    Nice idea re MLMT and subscription.

    However, the jury is still out regarding his short position. Gold has not yet tagged its early January high.

    ('course, I don't know where MLMT has his stops, so he could be out of the trade already. But he did comment yesterday that he thought a close below 1396 would be good for the bullish case. We did not get that, so he may still be in his short trade.)

    ReplyDelete
  87. Poly,
    Yes indeed. There is a reason silver has been so strong for 7 months. There are obviously supply shortages developing. I doubt that the meager little rise to $34 was enough to bring a ton of supply to the market.

    ReplyDelete
  88. DG,
    Excellent point, and I agree wholeheartedly.

    People, Gary is obviously shrewd (in the positive sense). I trust him to make appropriate ecisions about this blog. I see nothing troubling about having this forum open to non subscribers. Gary has just said he will curb his content a bit. I, like many other came her prior to subscribing...it actually only took me a couple days to buy a one month subscription and since then I've been on the yearly plan.

    Anyway, Like DG said, for the most part this format works well. And for those of you lurking and piecing together bits of info to stealthily benefit from the pm bull, let me tell you, for 200 bucks a year you can have the keys to the kingdom. Nuff said.

    ReplyDelete
  89. I just checked CA numismatic and sure enough Englehard bars are out of stock. The last time I saw CNI out of silver was at the bottom of the crash In Nov. 09.

    ReplyDelete
  90. Hi Gary,

    How about two blogs, one for the subscribers and one for the public. If all the newsletter related questions go private, you will end up having to answer the same question many times and the subscribers may miss the opportunity to learn from you and each other.

    ReplyDelete
  91. Alex, I bought GPL (GPR for me) at 3.02 so I'm back in the money and you are out of my bad book (for now), LOL.

    I didn't add yesterday unfortch, must be my mental arthritis acting up again.

    ReplyDelete
  92. All,
    Yesterday I talked with a my local coin dealer about his business demand for silver.
    He is very satisfied that silver flies off his shelf and he's in a weekly turnover now. His explained that if the world heads back into recession/depression that the need for silver will plummet due to economical supply and demand.

    He treats silver as a hot potato.

    Gary, I am lousy at debates but does he have any validity here?

    Tom

    ReplyDelete
  93. Miners doing a little better than the metals today.

    ReplyDelete
  94. someone gave defination of swing high as lower high lower low and yesterday it was higher high so no swing high but on gld i see high of 138.20 stockcharts on day before yesterday and not yesterday so why can't yesterday be lower high lower low making 138.20 swing high

    ReplyDelete
  95. Tom,
    Silver will follow gold. When gold drops down into a D-wave so will silver. At some point price will move up high enough that a bunch more supply will come back into the market. I don't know what price that will be but I doubt it was at $34.

    ReplyDelete
  96. Editorial comment...

    I deal with copyright issues all the time. The fact is that the material is copyrighted by Gary, anyone who uses it in any way that he does not intend, and does not condone can be sued. I know this is not what Gary wants to do, but this is his material.

    I recently had to redo a website for a client who's original designer used copyrighted images without permission. He is still in court fight a $25000 (yes $25 thousand) legal battle.

    Don't ruin if for the regular subscribers and have Gary change his mind about offering his advice. I honestly don't think he needs our money.

    Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  97. Yash,

    GLD and $GOLD are a little different..

    GLD is only stock market hours hours from 9:30 to 4 EST whereas $GOLD is 24 hours

    my guess is that - the high made yesterday by $GOLD was before the market opened at 9:30 EST and hence GLD doesn't show.

    ReplyDelete
  98. Blammo

    good to know, I hate being on the bad list :)

    I was telling Dg that with GPL ( and you can check your GPR chart)..

    It never REALLY goes under the 10 sma when it gets running well,only when it had the Jan correction. So if you want to add to your position , you can add the next time it goes to the 10sma as a mental note ( to fight mental arthritis :)

    ReplyDelete
  99. Gary,

    This will solve most of your problems VERY well. Please read:

    -blog run on your own site with your own software/programming (not too difficult)

    -only people who register can post. This allows you to cancel or block anybody who gets out of hand. (All subscribers are or course already registered and can post).

    -blog posts are publicly readable (with exception, see below)

    -blog posts are SELECTIVELY (by YOU) settable to SUBSCRIBER ONLY. Any post with this setting is only visible to a paid subscriber.

    Regular users (who have signed up to post, but not pay for newsletter) can't read those entries.

    -When a non-subscriber sees an entry like this it says "Visible to subscribers only."

    (ALTERNATELY: you might even customize the software so the first few words or sentences are visible with "... To see remaining post, please subscribe". This can turn your and other posts into even better 'teasers' of what the free person is missing.)

    -As the blog owner, when you are reading the blog, you have a special "Subscriber only" button next to each post. When you push it, the post flips to "Subscriber only". Whenever you see a post which you think gives too much away, you just push the button and it stays there but becomes blocked publicly.

    This solves the vast majority of everybody's issues and the programming involved is not too difficult (If it is, then you have the wrong guy.)

    ReplyDelete
  100. I feel like an ass now for passing a few to my buddy who completely ignored it. Hope everyone who is upset can forgive me. I emailed Gary and apologized...He told me he was fine with what I did and he's more concerned about a few he caught sending every report out to a bunch of people. I told Gary to feel free to cut me off as Shalom has recommended to any and all violations. I truly thought it was fine because Doc had given the OK and my HEART was to help out Gary. I have a lot of respect from him and learned a ton...Those from Kitco will be able to attest to this.

    Anyway, David, Shalom, DG, TZ and others who think what I did was theft, I ask for your forgiveness.

    ReplyDelete
  101. OH...and if each subscriber is only allowed to be logged on to ONE computer at a time, then they can't follow along during the day on the "Subscriber Only" material and still give the login to their friend as well.

    The continuous nature of daily access by most of the serious investors would prevent them from allowing another person to have their login.

    And of course they would not be copying and pasting the subscriber content/posts repeatedly during the day to 3 or 4 of their buddies as each new post comes in.

    It really solves a bunch of your problems but maintains a public blog which most generally seem to feel is beneficial.

    ReplyDelete
  102. Jayhawk-

    Gary's the big toe on this site, so if he's OK, you're aces with me...of course, a 1 oz silver maple leaf would help guarantee my lifelong forgiveness :-0

    ReplyDelete
  103. TZ ... I would never share my password but I do log on from multiple computers daily.
    I have computers in my office/kitchen/livingroon ... etc
    It would be a pain to always logout and relog every time I move to a different location.
    Something I would have to live with I guess ...

    ReplyDelete
  104. I got a few silver Maples and a few Eagles...Thought they were pricey at 19. Wish I had more.

    ReplyDelete
  105. Sharing any part of the subscription material is stealing, period. Any excuse or reason or explanation why its OK is only trying to rationalize what you know is wrong. Its really not that difficult.

    If you think you are Gary's "marketing arm" by sending your buddies copies, your wrong. You are still stealing without his permission. Give Gary their name and let HIM send the complimentary copies to entice them to subscribe if he wants.

    ReplyDelete
  106. Jay,

    No sweat, and I wasn't suggesting you get cut off, just a new policy for the future. Besides, you were straightforward about it, so your intentions were obviously in the right place.

    ReplyDelete
  107. AVANN/GARY,

    >TZ ... I would never share my password but I do log on from multiple computers daily.
    I have computers in my office/kitchen/livingroon ... etc
    It would be a pain to always logout and relog every time I move to a different location.
    Something I would have to live with I guess ...

    The single login at a time restriction could be SINGLE IP ADDRESS at a time instead of SINGLE LOGIN.

    All the computers at one location are usually on the same IP address as viewed from the internet.

    Problem solved.

    ReplyDelete
  108. Jayhawk

    In my opinion, you have been more of a contributor to this site in a positive way. I ,for one, have appreciated your charts and posts.

    Tz

    I read your recommendation to update the site...but with you saying only subs can see their own posts , but non subs can still post,I wonder why they would?
    You said..."-When a non-subscriber sees an entry like this it says "Visible to subscribers only."

    And also I imagine some non-subs do currently add to the post beneficially- by answering technical questions that subs may post on the site. If subs post in a 'sub only' forum, they may not receive the best answer to questions not related to Cycles theory...no??

    ReplyDelete
  109. Like I said I don't mind if anyone sends one or two reports out to a friend or associate. You don't even need to ask my permission.

    I would just prefer not to have every report copied and sent out to 5, 10 or 20 people every day.

    ReplyDelete
  110. Perhaps some of us have greater respect for intellectual property than others???!!! Here is the written policy of one newsletter I subscribe to: "{} newsletters are protected by copyright law and intended for the use of one individual per subscription. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution is strictly prohibited and will result in a non-refundable cancellation of your{} subscription."

    ReplyDelete
  111. Marinho,
    Unfortunately there is no right answer to that one. Maybe gold does correct here and maybe it has one more leg up before the correction.

    Maybe the correction when it comes is a very mild affair lasting 2 or 3 days like in Aug and Sept.

    It's even slightly possible that yesterday was the cycle low.

    ReplyDelete
  112. OK Dan. You must be with out sin in your life. Contrats...I've always want to meet a perfect human being.

    As for me, I didn't think it was wrong at the time, but now have apologized to Gary personally. It wont happen again, and by the way he said it was OK TO DO THIS IF I WANTED TO SEND A REPORT TO A BUDDY. GOT IT, he GAVE ME PERMISSION TODAY.

    ReplyDelete
  113. Power Corrupts ... that's great and don't get me wrong but that would be like buying the same book or movie twice just so me and my spouse could both read/watch it.
    Sharing a newsletter with your wife/husband is a little different then sharing it with friends.

    ReplyDelete
  114. Well, lowtax and me didn't get our morning follow through weakness to add. I mentioned that this is the worst case scenario (not nabbing more at lower prices), with miners gapping up and running higher from there.

    Still, it doesn't feel too bad for the 2/3 of capital I do have invested, and bodes well looking ahead. Silver is a train that can't be stopped.

    ReplyDelete
  115. Lack of respect for intellectual property is something that disgusts me.

    Not only that, but whoever is sending out Gary´s reports, don´t seem to realize that trading is a ZERO-SUM game. Why do you think your trading account is increasing? Where do you think that money comes from?

    ReplyDelete
  116. ALEX,

    You have some misunderstandings. Let me clarify.

    Gary would have a blog that would work almost EXACTLY like this one:

    -ANYBODY can post (they just have to sign up)

    -ANYBODY can read WITHOUT signing up and WITHOUT posting, but they *cannot* read SINGLE posts that are marked as "subscriber only" by gary. Only paid subscribers (who are logged in, from a single IP address) see the text of those posts. All public readers and free-registered public readers will, instead, see a note "This post is visible to subscribers only."

    THUS...MOST of the blog and MOST of the posts will be visible freely and publicly by anybody - just like now. But instead of people having to email gary specific paid-type questions, they can just post them and gary can respond but make his response "subscriber only". All his other responses which are not 'top secret' can remain public just like now.

    ReplyDelete
  117. I really hoped we'd open down 2-3% in the miners, but no dice.

    ReplyDelete
  118. Geez it seems like this is a bigger deal to others than it was to me.

    I think we can give it a rest now and get back to the markets.

    ReplyDelete
  119. And if gary thinks a person has posted info revealing subscriber material, like if I said:

    "Hey gary, when you told everybody to sell all their GDX last night and buy GOOG, why did you say to only do it if GOOG closed below 122?"

    Then gary could do two things:
    1) he can reply but make his reply "subscriber only"
    2) he can LEAVE my post on the blog, but flip ot to "subscriber only" as well.

    Yes, it would be up there for a bit and a few people might read it and understand whatever he said the night before, but the damage is minimal and much less than now.

    ReplyDelete
  120. Gary, I'm sorry to learn that your services are being misused!

    I appreciate your running commentary on the blog throughout the day and would greatly miss that. I am not likely to email for every question I have that is often answered here thru patience.

    Much of the information people discuss is interesting; however, I could see limiting comments on the blog to subscribers only. Registration could be set up thru the website or on the blog.

    ReplyDelete
  121. "Why do you think your trading account is increasing? Where do you think that money comes from?"

    Tim Knight's account? I read more people out there on the deflation, metals are in a bubble, this technical indicator says sell silver, etc. You really think a couple hundred people on a blog are moving markets? We a a tiny little fraction of the trade. The total global investment % in pms is like 1.5%

    ReplyDelete
  122. Althought I do think Gary's solution is the simplest. If we ask him a subscriber only type question, he will say - I will answer this in the nightly report etc. The problem is we talk to each other quite abit about "restricted information" on this thread. We need to start self policing a bit. If someone asks something that subscribers should know, we need to just say to them - "Gary has covered that in the nightly reports."

    All that being said, it would be nice to have a small forum area on the pay site where we can all talk to each other about restricted topics.

    ReplyDelete
  123. Good point about the zero-sum game, as well as intellectual property being the same as any other property.

    Of course when somebody gives out a password or report they are giving it to friends, but that does not make it ok. Nobody would post it on a public discussion board, or give it to people they don't like.

    Gary has helped many of us in a big way. It'd be great if we could return the favor by making sure he's able to keep focused and earn what he deserves.

    ReplyDelete
  124. Very interesting day.

    Market, pm's and oil all up. Next week, we'll see who the are pretenders.

    Btw, next month's unemployment report should be dazzling. We could see SPX 1450-1500 this year.

    ReplyDelete
  125. Jay,
    No need to be so defensive, I was not targeting you or anybody else. I was simply stating a fact that most here know to be true.
    In fact your reaction shows you probably knew it to be true too.
    You seem like a reasoned guy and add much to this blog, so I have no doubt your intentions were good. But facts are facts and you or anyone else rightfully require Gary's permission.
    But now you have Gary's permission so all is well.

    ReplyDelete
  126. When you're an Old Turkey you need something to keep you wound up every once in a while...

    ReplyDelete
  127. Thanks Gary,

    Now like the man says, back to the markets. We are getting close to the time yesterday when the big swoosh began.

    ReplyDelete
  128. Jayhawk,

    It´s the mentality that I am talking about. If 1 person does this, it may not make any difference, but if everyone thought like this, then that would make a difference.

    I am sorry to say this, but trading is a war and your money has to come from a loser. If every profitable trader wanted to help as many losers as they could, we would all be losing money and the brokers would be the only ones with money in their pockets.

    ReplyDelete
  129. True, I fessed up on the first post of the thread to admit I did it. I could have lied and not said anything.

    Anyway, I was just making sure I apologized to the group and Gary for my mistake.

    Back to the market...Beanie-I thought the "FEAR TRADE" was off! Why is silver back up today. You need to grab some SLW before it's a runaway freight train.

    ReplyDelete
  130. i also like Jayhawk's charts and comments

    ReplyDelete
  131. You can´t pitty the losers. Otherwise you are in the wrong business.

    ReplyDelete
  132. Anyone know how long it is in the benefit of the banks that need to deliver gold or silver to keep the price down? It is today only or Monday and Tuesday as well?

    Thx.

    ReplyDelete
  133. OH believe me, I want JPMs, MLMTs, Beanies, Robert Pretchers and Tim Knights money. No mercy.

    ReplyDelete
  134. By the way, I am not talking about you Jayhawk...

    I am just talking about the mentality behind all of this. Sometimes people forget that you can´t be a good samaritan in the markets. You can use the money you won from the markets and then use it for charity or whatever. But to take money away from the markets you need to want to crush the losers.

    ReplyDelete
  135. Hi everyone,

    I like the the idea of two blogs: one subscriber and one non-subscriber

    ReplyDelete
  136. Just to be clear: My trading system does not deal with exits. I got the buy, and it has already worked so that's great. But my plan for getting out is more seat of the pants. Trading is asymmetrical: you can wait forever to take a position and do so only when everything lines up just right, but once in, you have a decision to make at every moment whether you want to or not. I have decided to hold my large SPY position for a new SPX high (or stop out at cost), but that's just my thought at the moment.

    ReplyDelete
  137. "David Kafrick said...
    S&P internals are pretty weak.."

    David,
    What does that mean? what indicator you looking at?

    ReplyDelete
  138. I agree with David...it's the mentality

    if one person steals 5 cents, is that a bad thing? maybe not

    what happens when 5 million people steal 5 cents? maybe that's bad

    what happens when 5 million people steal 5 cents 5 million times?

    ReplyDelete
  139. Gary,

    You should have had this special a long time ago. I've referred a small village to you! But you're worth every penny and then some!

    ReplyDelete
  140. David K: Is that right [zero sum] in equities (It is true with options). If a stock goes from 5 to 50 because the value of the company has increased, is there a loser other than the few shorts? Shares represent a %age of ownership, so if the value of the company goes up and the stock then does, who loses? There is lost opportunity for the founders who went public, but other than that? For myself I never think about crushing some other guy. I try to have a sense of the crowd's animus for contrarianist purposes, but that's it. I feel what you are saying when I play poker but not at all in trading. Interesting

    ReplyDelete
  141. oa92000,

    I am looking at the ratio between advancing issues and declining issues, and comparing that to the ratio between advancing volume and declining volume.

    ReplyDelete
  142. Jayhawk,

    If your intent was to let a potential sub know the value of this service and to get him to subscribe, then IMO, you did nothing wrong.

    I think it's the repeated sending to the same person that would be questionable, but even then it sounds like you were doing it to try to get them to sign up.

    You've apologized to Gary and to us. Accepted from me, certainly. And sounds like from Gary too. If others can't accept your apology, that's all you can do (I'd say it's their problem at this point.)

    Meanwhile, back at the ranch, I hope you'll stick around. I appreciate your posts and charts.

    ReplyDelete
  143. DG,

    You are right that the stock market is not a zero-sum game, it is more like a ponzi scheme.

    But futures markets is totally a zero-sum game, actually less than zero-sum because of trading fees.

    ReplyDelete
  144. TZ

    OK. And also if Gary see's something that needs addressing ,he can always just reply in the nightly report.

    OTHERS

    I just want to post this...F.W.I.W.

    When I feel a low occurred ( like I did in Jan 25th area, I look back at the last run (say Aug to Nov) and notice various things.

    For one, I noticed most of my stocks slammed down on Aug 24th, just like they did yesterday, but it eventually looked like a shake-out...so here's the point/I use not to worry or be shaken emotionally.

    Looking back at AUG to mid Oct, off the bottom and upward , the GDX Rode up and never really closed below the 10 or maybe I should use 14 sma for more than a day (and rarely). It Did get slammed there, but only closed below it 1 or 2 times in those 10 wks.

    Yesterday we did the same and bounced, so maybe that was it.So look back at AUG into OCT, that was a great run, but this should be stronger. I expect at least the same or better. So far since Jan low...no break of 14 sma by GDX , so far as good or better :)

    ReplyDelete
  145. I also want to ask ( I think it was David??) and no pun intended...

    Are you up about $300,000.00 today? NICE!!! :)

    ReplyDelete
  146. should have added agq @ 162 yesterday

    ReplyDelete
  147. David wrote

    "Lack of respect for intellectual property is something that disgusts me."

    Me too. But I'm quite sure that people who forward postings on a regular basis don't have the right mental setup for trading and are therefore not successful with it.

    "don´t seem to realize that trading is a ZERO-SUM game."

    This is only valid for futures. With stocks there are real companies behind which create value (at least most of them) and may even pay dividends.

    ReplyDelete
  148. Silver looking bull flaggy. Just for fun, measure the flag pole from the start of the move up and we have an 8 point target. (42)

    /SI

    My little pea brain wants SLW to get a weekly close over this line. We are right there for now.

    SLW

    ReplyDelete
  149. Some one here asked about NatGas plays and I mentioned SD. Look what they did today! Nice!

    ReplyDelete
  150. Gary,

    I understand your concerns about discussing the premium reports on the blog but I find some of those discussions to be the most helpful. You may discuss various possibilities for the next day and then people can ask (e.g., the dollar today). I would much prefer to see the blog closed only to subscribers. I think your reports (not the premium ones but the public ones you put out every few days - i.e., the "new post") is more than enough for people to decide to subscribe. I personally did forward your nightly report to a number of people (each once only) but solely to convince them to sign-up and each of them did within days as they were amazed at your information. Just some thoughts.

    ReplyDelete
  151. Has anyone looked at GSS lately? It's down to that 3.12 level. Seems like a cheap stock to have in ones account considering where its come from! Thoughts anyone?

    ReplyDelete
  152. Basil-

    That was me. Dang...I want our pms to do that type of move.

    SLW...Could see a test of the 10 day and trend line at 38.

    SLW Daily


    Have a nice weekend all.

    ReplyDelete
  153. Rod,
    There's usually a reason for a stock to do that. With these juniors it's often a secondary issue or third or fourth....

    Another reason why I don't choose to buy individual miners.

    Just like I've warned over and over about leverage one can't take large positions in any mining stock, especially juniors. A mine flood, labor strike, nationalization, or expansion of the float can cause huge one day moves down.

    If you ignore me on this one day you are going to wake up and find your account cut in half or worse when something unexpected happens.

    ReplyDelete
  154. Jay,
    I was thinking the same thing about SLW.

    ReplyDelete
  155. Even in the stock market, which isn´t a zero-sum game, you still need people to make foolish decisions for you to win money. If you buy a stock it is because you think it will go higher than where it is trading right now, so whoever is selling you the stock, even if he is not selling short but simply selling a stock he owns, is losing money in the sense that he is selling it for the wrong price.

    ReplyDelete
  156. The chart on GSS looks terrible. There's lots of better choices out there.

    ReplyDelete
  157. Gary,

    Understood, was just looking around when I came across it and was wondering what was up. It's trading 10,000,000 shares today.

    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  158. David K, you're right of course, but let's keep it in perspective.

    Collectively, this group and whoever else we share this information with account for no more that one single pimple on an elephants' ass and that's being generous.

    As we're already invested, if anything we're doing our part to stir up the speculators, whom are now required, to drive this home.

    BTW, Silver just got it ALL back, WOW.

    ReplyDelete
  159. Pit session closed down today,and USERX should be up barring any late day selloff. Hope everyone has a great weekend.

    ReplyDelete
  160. MFN getting serious here.

    Energy moving today strong...

    DG ,did you buy my GMXR nat Gas pick yesterday? up 10% today :)

    -'SD' & 'Hero' very strong. KOG filled the gap and moving up...and

    selling BRNC here

    FTO possible target $36, Bought FTO

    Nog, etc etc etc

    ReplyDelete
  161. i agree with blammo on the blog and access

    your free snippets and even some answers to nightly report questions on the blog are great for subs and probably just act as teasers for non subs

    i would recommend only fixing the things that are broke like the access and not messing with the fundamentals

    i access site from phone pad and pc's

    non subs comments on the blog are key to get people in and discussing - being part of this community and hopefully more subs for you

    ReplyDelete
  162. GSS- I think its going back from whence it came...
    I owned it and traded it in the 3s to 5s but got rid of it because it was a dog compared to everything else I owned. I would wait for it to head in the other direction. Rallies are being sold pretty hard. Although you could take a BB crash trade on it.

    ReplyDelete
  163. how about gpl on a dip? or BAA? Better than gss.

    ReplyDelete
  164. vuvvy: how accurate is this USERX divergence? Would it be a reason, on its own, to buy a little today? Did you buy any PM's based on it?

    Alex: Nat Gas was a one shot deal for me. I do expect it to go higher, but now with all the SPY's I just added to my PM's I am low on investable funds. I need to dump some GPL to raise cash for NG, right?

    Ryan (I think it was you). If I may, regarding trading: Don't look back at UNG. If it goes to 7, great. Someone else will make something on it. You did right by selling a loser. If you look back and focus on the ones that went up after you sold them you'll never sell a loser again! Once it's gone it's gone. If someone offered you an even bet where you would win only if you flipped three heads in a row, you'd decline. If you then flipped three heads in a row it doesn't mean you did the wrong thing in declining. UNG's action from here is now irrelevant.

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  165. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  166. Vuvvy,

    I have the same questions as DG about how good is indicator gold pit close vs USERX close.

    ReplyDelete
  167. Gary, you aren't kidding about dip's disappearing in the blink of an eye!

    ReplyDelete
  168. I concur with a couple other comments about checking the report from different devices. I will typically check the report before bed on my iphone. And will check from either home and/or work during the morning and night. So I could be coming in under 3-4 IP addresses..

    But yeah if people are copying & emailing the report that's not good.

    ReplyDelete
  169. Thanks to Gary and to everyone who posts here. Not only is Gary's nightly report the best of the best, but this comment section is pretty cool too, a good place to learn and share.

    Have a great weekend all!

    ReplyDelete
  170. David, when you trade stocks it's a zero sum game. When you invest in stocks for the longer term it might be easier. Think Buffet...

    Theoretically the price for a stock is the value of the company plus some future expected revenues. This is valid for the IPO and later too. So someone selling or buying just gets or pays the "correct" price for the stock at the time. Holding the stocks for some time hopefully gives him some of the expected revenues in form of dividends or price appreciation.

    We both know that the "correct" price for a stock is almost never the price you have to pay currently at the exchange. It might be higher or lower.

    Or as Ben Graham once said it much better, that in the short-term the stock market is a voting machine, while in the long-term it is a weighing machine.

    And now back to the silver bull :-)

    ReplyDelete
  171. Rod,

    Re GSS, this had got to be one of the worst stocks (if not the worst) in the entire universe of gold mining shares. They made 31c in 2006 when gold was $600/oz and have hardly made any money since. Now announced a loss. If a gold producer can't make money at $1400/oz they probably shouldn't be in the mining business. Share price is the same as 2006 incidentally.

    I bought at $4.31 a few months ago, rode it all the way up to $6, and like an idiot didn't cash in. Finally got out last week at $4.16, but would really have got hammered if I had held on. Put the proceeds into PZG which has done fine.

    Unless you are a superb trader I would avoid it, plenty of better opportunities. They say bottom pickers often end us as cotton pickers, so be careful.

    ReplyDelete
  172. mamaloshen, thanks for the info on GSS.

    ReplyDelete
  173. DG,

    As you're aware, I allow myself one stock for investing- a best idea.

    Usually, I'll put about 40% of my account in that stock initially, but after that it can vary widely depending on results. Currently, I've sold just over half of my stock position because I think it will be dead money this year, but just fine thereafter (a longwinded way of saying it went up too much last year IMHO).

    I will use the balance of the money for my best timing idea. Right now I've hijacked Gary's silver idea.

    Between the two of these investments, I'm about 110% invested.

    I will go to 150%, or even more, if I'm convinced I'm buying at/very near a daily cycle low. Yesterday was nowhere near clear enough for me to go all in with silver.

    If I do add this extra 40%, I will use it as a trading amount, and sell on any hint of overbought conditions, going back to 110%.

    ReplyDelete
  174. Thanks, Wes. I didn't know (or didn't remember) that you concentrated that much. I love seeing how the experienced players play this game. Have a great weekend.

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  175. Chris Kimble on $$ Support and Silver effect.

    http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/2011/02/dollar-about-to-fall-big-time/

    Check out his last comment.

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  176. Love the high beta AGQ & SOXL..

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  177. Gary,

    I'm a little late to the discussion on sharing of subscription material. I agree with other members that say it is wrong. Period. Your blog entries provide plenty of material for people to make a good decision if they want to subscribe. In fact I read your blog for 2 months, before deciding to subscribe.

    Also, as many have voiced, as a subscriber I sometimes wonder why so much "subscription" material ends up being posted on the blog. Regardless, I am happy to pay my subscription, if only to reward you for all the hard work you put into what you do. One idea that is a hybrid on the private blog idea is a blog using wordpress that allows you to make certain entries public, with public comments, and other entries are password protected for members with private comment thread. I know EW is not your thing, but here is an example of a great blog using this setup.

    http://pugsma.wordpress.com/page/2/

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  178. DG,

    Yes that was me regarding UNG. I'm not kicking myself that I sold it yesterday and if it happens that I sold it at the bottom so be it. I'm not looking bad, no need to put that emotional drag on myself. Funny, I sold UNG and put it in AGQ in the morning and then well you know what happened. But hey look at it now, that position is already in the green. I definitely sleep better at night knowing the funds are in AGQ vs UNG.

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  179. Gary, Jay,

    Regarding your comments about SLW testing the 10 day trendline, I'm assuming we're just going to sit tight? The upcoming earnings is also in the back of my mind.

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  180. Ryan,
    I've learned my lesson a long time ago. When I'm confident an intermediate bottom is in and gold is in a C-wave advance I don't take chances.

    I just sit tight until I think the C-wave has run it's course.

    Anyone who can do that will most likely post 50-100%+ gains during this final leg up. If you get cute and think you can outsmart the bull I can virtually guarantee you will not only underperform but you may even lose money.

    If you aren't emotionally able to do that then I suggest you just buy physical silver and hold it until it looks like the C-wave is over.

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  181. Gary,

    Thanks, I'm definitely trying to be less emotional. I really have to thank you, if it wasn't for you constantly drilling in my head about who cares if you buy into strength or pulling the trigger, I wouldn't have the positions I have now. But obviously I would be a much happier camper if I just went all in when you gave the go. I would like to add more but I think I'm just going to sit on my hands for now and probably add when you give the go ahead.

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  182. Hi guys,

    Gary's has been mentioning about the end of the dollar for a while now...

    saw this posted on Dan's website...thought I'd share it...

    India taking a first step

    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/Bank-of-India-becomes-first-to-offer-trade-settlement-in-yuan/articleshow/7565143.cms#ixzz1F0GZPpnT

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  183. Gary -

    What is your email address? I know the guy at www.TradeSavin.com - which is like the Groupon service for signals.investment newsletter stuff. He might be able to up your subscriptions a bit and you can use the $50 or so to pay him. He has a pretty good list.

    I will see if you guys can get in touch. It will help your business to work a deal with him.

    Now you know I'm not just an attacker. ;)

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  184. Looking back on Thursday's action I can safely that without Gary's guidance, the blood in the streets would have normally been mine. Instead, I bought a 100 shares of AGQ at 171 even though my account was tanking big as I did so. There were clearly some big players moving the silver market. I was amazed at how the bottom dropped out in a matter of minutes. That had to be a coordinated play. Anyway, thanks again to Gary for his steaady hand.

    I would also like to give a shout out to John Townsend over at the TSI Trader. I give John the credit for getting me back on the bull last August and eventually pointing me in Gary's direction to learn how to ride it. If you're looking for some new trading ideas here's his link. John, like Gary,is also a very good teacher (literally).

    http://thetsitrader.blogspot.com/

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  185. Gary -

    Nevermind

    I found it on your homepage. Keith from TradeSavin will probably contact you. Hope it brings you new business.

    Tim

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  186. Gary, earlier in today's thread you warned against holding individual junior miners.

    Your comment today worries me a little. Since discovering HZU it has now become my #4 holding, but I have two juniors, GPR and SLX as my top two (SLW is #3).

    Here is my question: at what point is a large individual holding too large, in your book? As my #1 holding, GPR is 22% of my portfolio. I'd hate to let it go; I've played it since it was .58CDN, but your comment earlier...

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  187. K,
    Originally when I had about 10-12 juniors (before GDXJ), no one position made up more than 5% of my portfolio so no one position could do any serious damage to me.

    I know exactly what's going through everyone's head with these juniors. You think you can sink a big chunk of your portfolio in one or two of this lottery tickets and make a quick fortune.

    Unfortunately more than likely what's going to happen is you get on board one of these high flyers and then once it starts to stagnate the momentum crowd abandons ship for the next flash in the pan. If you don't get out in time you end up riding it back down or worse some bit of bad news comes out and it drops 30-40% overnight.

    Ask yourself how happy you will be if your portfolio took a 30-40% hit one day.

    AGQ should give anyone more than enough beta and since its a derivative of silver you aren't going to have to worry about company specific news effecting the stock. All you have to worry about is timing the top of the C-wave and the supply and demand fundamentals in the silver market ...which we've already determined have an imbalance that only higher price can correct.

    It's the same ole story. Greed jumps on your head and causes you to do something you wouldn't normally do if you were thinking straight.

    Remember this is the same emotion that destroyed the financial system. Don't let it destroy your account.

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  188. When I read articles about the dollars demise and trade settlements outside of a reserve currency, I wonder if people truly understand money. People the world over have borrowed dollars into existence to carry trade our currency. It is just like naked shorting in our market, and when there is a true risk off crisis that Ben is unable to print to solve, all of the dollars will need to repatriated, and they simply vanish, giving the dollar apparent strength. The move higher will be breathtaking, even if it is brief. We caught a glimpse of it in 08, and will see it again (probably Gary's D wave)

    Bilateral trading/settlement agreements are unwieldy and inefficient. China has printed more Yuan than the U.S. has printed dollars, so we will see how long that lasts before they spar over value.

    This is a political statement, nothing more.

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  189. OK, Gary. Thanks. It's great to get some one-on-one advice from you. I will continue to increase my HZU position - but I'll keep some of my GPR for the ride :)

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  190. pit down, userx up has been about 90% correct since 2001 yeilding on average a 15 point gain in gold in a 2-3 day period.I did add a little.

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  191. vuvvy
    where can we go to see the gold pit price?

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  192. Gary said, "There is a reason silver has been so strong for 7 months. There are obviously supply shortages developing. I doubt that the meager little rise to $34 was enough to bring a ton of supply to the market."

    The lease rate for silver is so out of whack, it's irresponsible not to recognize there's something that needs out of the box thinking to explain.

    What ideas do you have as to why this lease rate is so large, through the Kitco-posted time frames?

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  193. Bob LH,

    I have March SLW 35 calls which are profitable at this point. I don't have much experience with options. What's the best approach, in your opinion, for managing these. Should I just sell them before they expire? I think I read where you said you can roll these over into April. What's the advantage to this? How is this done? Can you do it electronically or do you need to contact the brokerage?

    Any info you can provide is appreciated.

    ReplyDelete

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