I sent in a question yesterday that I guess you sorta answered. I believe that you expect this C wave to move up quickly. Do you expect that in the first daily cycle that Gold will push past its high? Is that the confirmation of higher high to add on your 15% leverage?
One last thing, you probably know this...the media bar on that page also has a volume control on the far left. scroll on it and you can adjust the volume if its too low.
It is definitely the work settings. I do not see a media bar at all. I am guessing it would be right below the "Welcome to the Call Replay" on the right hand side. It's a nice empty space for me.
Kinda sucks I still have to work and can't retire early like Gary.
It's interesting to see the $HUI still at levels seen at the March 08 and Dec 09 peaks, when gold was trading at some 30% and 10% lower than today.
But much more startling is the $200 run in gold during Spring 2006, peaking gold at $730. At this peak, the $HUI hit 407, a mere 1.72 the ratio of hold and just 120 points below where it stands today. Since then though, gold has essentially doubled!
Looking at the long term $GOLD:$HUI, it suggests to me that we still have not shaken off the trauma associated with the PM's collapse of 2008. At the bottom in 2008, the HUI traded at just 150.
Is this the run where PM's get back into favor and break back down below the 2:1 ratio?
I think precious metals are done rising for the time being. At best, it goes sideways. The market is very strong. As it goes higher, there will be less fear-based buying of gold and silver.
Alex: Covered my FCX when it reclaimed the 50 DMA at 56.32. I do not plan to get out of my China short unless (FXP) unless have to. I may get to do FCX a third time. :-) Maybe it'll drop to 4.16 then.
Gary: I assume the later it gets the less likely it is that Gold will drop since we are getting deeper and deeper into the cycle. Is that right? Seems to me that MLMT is running out of time for his expectations to come to pass...?
DG, If gold can keep making highs into at least day 12 then the daily cycle will become right translated and the odds will go down significantly the recent low will be violated.
I am guessing it would be right below the "Welcome to the Call Replay" on the right hand side.
Good guess, thats where it is.
Corebuilder...doesn't work on your home p.c.? Does utube or other media websites? Wonder if your 'settings' or 'Parental settings' could be blocking it?? Maybe someone on here can help you with that.
So far gold and the HUI are just forming what looks to be a small bull flag which is what I was expecting (either that or a brief sideways consolidation) after the large move Thursday.
Silver on the other hand is just continuing to grind higher which is a good sign as it appears to be leading gold again like it did during the last run.
Thanks for the chart...i was also thinking about that ratio...and I think that's going to change soon , since the HUI and GDX have broken above long term resistance , and basically just retested that break out I.M.O.
Gary: The website say 1/27 was Day 5, so today is day 12, and gold touched a new high today. Am I getting that right? Feels like i am missing something.
The stock market is very, very strong. It keeps ripping through the top of every channel line. Amazing.
The rise in the stock market since september has been one of the greatest trends I have ever seen. Almost a 30% gain with 4% maximum drawdown. It doesn´t get any better than that.
Oh, I see, the website cycle count page is wrong. Gary, forgive me, but there isn't much point posting the cycle count if, when a new low is formed, the page is not updated. I guess I need to check the count myself anyway, though it'd be great to have an accurate count on the website.
I am 60% through the webinar , and at 60% through , Gary is going over why , even though he has been calling a top for SPX for a couple of months...he would NEVER short it.
Do you have any price projections for the Dollar low?
I was going through my dollar chart, and based on a confluence of projections I came up with a range between $56-$59. Do you have any opinion about price targets for the dollar or you just work with time projections?
David, Usually bear markets break slightly below prior lows followed by a strong rally. So if I had to guess I would think maybe some where around 68/69.
Alex, Why did you insist I cover FCX? Oh well, I guess some other short can make some money here. I actually started to place the order to re-short it when it got back down below the 56.30 but didn't pull the trigger. It's all your fault! (I'll curse you out later when I have the time.)
Sorry to be asking too many questions, this is the last one :)
Is there a cycle in the dollar bigger than the 3 year cycle? I am asking this because by looking at the monthly chart, it seems that this next bottom in the dollar will be a huge bottom. There is a massive triangle on the monthly chart, and triangles usually precede the last leg on a trend. So could this next 3 year cycle low also be the low of a much larger cycle? for example. a 10 year cycle...
I was seeing that possible cup w/high handle on a 3 day chart
look at FNSR 3month daily ,or TIBX , since you thought the handle had to slope downward... thats the cup w/handle pop I feared for you (shorting copper)
Besides , the fat lady , she hasnt sung yet. Its not 4 p.m.
Alex: You know I'm kidding, right? You are fun to poke at. Damn thing's down in the mid 55's now. Oh well, gratifying to know I can pick 'em at least. If the 50 turns over and it can rally back to it I'll do it again. Funny calling it "Freeport Copper and Gold" when it's getting killed and the whole PM complex is up today.
Alex: I studied O'Neill for a while and I believe the handle really does need to slope down because the weak holders need to be getting out. If memory serves he is very precise about it sloping down and not getting below the 1/2 way point of the cup.
Pima: Notice the OEXers from the 12:00 to 12:30 post. They bought 1600 puts and 80 calls. Now that's a statement!...and we died right there. But it's only good for an entry point or a trade and doesn't tell us even how we will close.
That was an enjoyable webinar and lots of good reminders.
One side note: That web page could be misunderstood where it says
Copy/Paste
CLICK HERE TO GET A 20% DISCOUNT ON YOUR MEMBERSHIP TO THE SMART MONEY TRACKER PREMIUM & 3 FREE MONTHS
Because it implies a 20% discount in any timeframe ,plus 3 months. EX , someone may sign up for 6 months and think its at 20% off , and for 9 months. (Or is it?)
Alex: Everything is going up. A malformed handle doesn't mean it can't go up, just that it doesn't fit his pattern. Heck, 95% of what has already gone up sharply does not fit his pattern. It's just that if you are buying it as a C-with-H, it is more likely to fail if the weak hands have not yet gotten out. Of course if the SPX rockets straight up what difference does it make? What did Buffett say, "It takes the tide going out to see who's been swimming naked." (I'm not referring to you, just that in this market patterns are almost irrelevant, and everyone thinks he's a long-side genius.)
It is still a secular bear market. If your are willing to just sit with your short position it will eventually turn out to be a winning trade. The downside is one might have to weather an even more extended draw down and you could miss the final C-wave advance while waiting shorts to work.
Just listened to the audio and I hope your right about this possibly dragging on to 2016 or so.
I agree with you with 99% of the time. However, where I disagree with you is when you said that "what is gold other then what we say it's worth". Thats the attitude we should have for fiat currency's. Because the end game could be where the world or some country's go back to a gold standard with or without the US, and maybe not end in a bubble. Gold might end in a fixed value.
Now I am nervous type of guy so I have physical silver on me and it comforts me to a degree that your not nervous to the degree that you need to have physical metals on you.
But I think you really need to have a portion in physical just in case. NO?
Robert, as an FYI, I only laugh because I have been there. Emotions are a killer when trading. Now you have to fight the urge to get it all back in one or two aggressive trades. The Market will sniff you out and throttle you if you try that.
There is a conversation that applies to you on Moo's blog as well:
"After loosing almost $180k in just 2 days (due to my stupidity), when I tried to get everything back, I lost more and then more and kept loosing for next 2 years. After that I went back to papertrading, sharpened my skills, found my niche and slowly entered the market and build confidence, still building..."
The fact is if someone went short with 100% of their portfolio when we got our first selling on strength day at about 1200 they are only down 10%.
Robert's irrational outburst isn't caused by a 10% draw down. It's very obvious he leveraged huge into what he thought was a sure thing, probably with options that are about to, or have already expired.
So not only did he not listen to me about shorting he also ignored my warnings about leverage.
And if I remember right I warned him several times on the blog here that he was taking a huge risk and should reconsider.
I guess he didn't take any of my warnings seriously.
2nd day of gold pausing (and pulling back a bit) after thursday's spike higher. I think the congestion is pretty much over and the lows today will hold.
I suspect we go higher now tonight and tomorrow.
(It is actually good that gold didn't continue running after thursday because it makes it much less likely we retrace back down to these levels once we resume higher.)
Robert, The simple fact is you thought you were smarter than the market. If you had even just listened to me about leverage you could easily recover all your losses in a couple of days riding the gold bull.
But you knew more than me about that also. Now you are paying the price for your hubris. It's time to grow up. You have no one to blame but yourself.
My memory is that Gary never told anyone to go short.
At several points he cautioned against shorting. Finally, sometime in January, he suggested on the premium site that "those who wish to take a stab at the short side can do so" with a small portion of their equity. He even said this was mainly to keep itchy trigger fingers busy while waiting for the intermediate bottom. At no point was this part of his recommended allocation.
Where from that do you get that he is responsible for your losses? He was bearish and wrong, but at no point did he instruct subscribers to short. If you've been following Gary's instructions precisely, you should have very little in the way of losses right now.
I can count dozens of investment bloggers who have been bearish the last few months. Are they responsible for your losses too?
And by the way, what kind of idiot puts a large portion of their money at risk based on the opinion of some blogger in Las Vegas? If that's the sole basis on which you made an investment, then you deserve to lose money.
My memory is also that you spent a lot of time on this site back in November/December crowing about your gains, about "chasing good MPLS tail", fast cars, talking about how rich you were going to be, etc.
I don't remember you giving Gary credit for your gains back then. Those were all you, right?
When you grow up, you should run an investment bank. You have the same mentality: Privatize the gains, socialize the losses.
I just want to chime in to say that I agree with David.
Gary has been careful not to take any short positions or recommend shorts except if using a small portion of equity with a close stop, and even then only at the very specific points he has mentioned in the daily cycle where shorting might work out (eg. first down day after four or more up days).
If you listen to the webinar, he mentions for the umpteenth time why he doesn't short bull markets (cyclical or secular) except perhaps in extremely rare circumstances (such as the Dollar coming out of a 3-year cycle low).
Gary, some of us do pay attention to what you actually write in your letters each night. Please do not get frustrated by those that don't (not saying that you are...but just in case).
No. I wasn't going to short UUP. I meant its low volume and rising price as further confirmation that the $USD has little upside, as we wait for it to tank and for precious metals to rally hard....hopefully. :)
I think you should change the webinar photo to you either: a) smashing weights around a gym; b) hanging off a vertical cliff with blue sky and a killer drop in the background.
The vibe of the existing photo is just off. I can't explain it.
Earlier I asked , are there 2 Roberts?? Because if we just heard from THIS Robert , then it explains A LOT!!
Robert said... I never have touched options, but whenever I think about them or hear about them my eyes grow very large- that is a sign that I should not be using them! ;) January 9, 2011 8:00 PM
why would Gary put a photo of himself lifting weights or rock climbing when the presentation is about investing in the markets? If anything he should be wearing a gold or silver chain! :)
I hope you learned from this...Humble pie is not fun...but we have all been there! I have come to think that every person that makes money has been burnt at this point. Eventually our pride gets in the way and we go "all in" too many times. And despite all negatives towards you, we could easily be talking about ourselves at a certain point.
I like the idea of Gary with the "yo-yo" bling idea...perhaps put on a sideways hat, with a smirk, crossed arms...Call it Gary's Gangsta advice..."Going for the Bling"
>why would Gary put a photo of himself lifting weights or rock climbing when the presentation is about investing in the markets? If anything he should be wearing a gold or silver chain! :)
Gary- I received your twiiter text stating the new report was posted but still only see the weekend report as the latest report on the premium site? I refreshed and logged out and back in on my side but still no success? Just an FYI! Thank you.
Doc agrees with your idea that the dollar will bottom at the end of this int-cycle in spring, but he also says to keep an "open mind" about the possibility that the dollar will form a int-cycle low at the end of this month followed by another cycle into a low near the end of June. Do you see that as possible?
There is the possibility of one more intermediate cycle before a final bottom. I tend to think it would be more likely to bottom in the late fall. That does tend to be when we get these currency crisis.
Plus the last yearly cycle low came in Nov. If the next cycle were to manage to stretch another year then we would expect the bottom next Nov.
Good grief...even for TK that sounded unbelievable, so I had to check it out myself. He thinks the PMs are darn near the most flawed market in the world. :facepalm:
Quoth Tim: "I seriously think that GLD, SLV, and GDX are all poised for meaningful drops. The equity indexes are all still annoyingly, agonizingly, irritatingly strong. But metals.........they're bear-ready."
Makes me want to get on the horn to my broker and borrow some leverage in the A.M.
You mentioned that you don't see hyperinflation happening any time soon. Can you explain why you have come to this conclusion? Under what circumstances do you think hyperinflation will occur. How do you spot the onset of hyperinflation? Thanks much in advance for the insights.
What in the world is going on here. All these posts about Robert being short and why he shouldn't be, but zero posts from Robert? Have you all gone nuts? What happened to gold and silver?
Thanks Alex, I saw what was coming with him a couple months ago. He mentioned last month that he quit drinking. I think that experience was short lived.......
Seeing as how today is Feb. 8, I was wondering if you'd heard about Wynter Benton's prediction of a spike in silver prices from today into March 1 by people who will demand physical delivery.
So today is your day when gold will open around 1361 and screw those who shorted 1361 intra-day spike last week.. Very likely we will sell off from there..
I expect ES (SPX futures) to do the same... by opening around 1318.25... or at least higher than 1316.. go to 1318.25 and then sell off...
I expect that we will be back to near the opening levels or highs of the day by EOD...
Cycles are only good for spotting bottoms, but pretty much worthless for tops, right? But I was just thinking in tthe case of the Dollar index, the tops will always coincide with the bottoms in the EURUSD. Which means that if there is any consistency to the cycles in the EURUSD, than there should also be cycles which refer to the tops in the dollar index. Have you ever tried counting cycles in the EURUSD pair? Do you know of anyone that does that? It could really help in trying to time the tops in the dollar index.
I've been following that wynter-benton stuff on JPM/Comex hedge fund-March delivery Catbird. Go to JPM's board on Yahoo and the poster there is wynter-benton. It's certainly entertaining if nothing else! She said several weeks ago Feb 8th was the day this would start going down, so I find today's spike up kind of interesting.
She just posted this-
"It was The Leader who took silver up in the middle of the night only to allow Blythe to think that she trapped us with that China interest rate hike.
It was our group who leaked the China interest rate hike story before it was even announced. Blythe fell for the trap and shorted like crazy.
Now witness the destruction of Blythe and The Morgue itself."
Guys, if you need me to be a contrary indicator, I am happy to help you!! Ah ah... I followed Gary's advice and bought Gold at 1349.3 yesterday. Just sold back at 1363 ( I know Gary, you are going to tell me NOT to do that, but I feel more confortable and I can sleep better...). Thanks for your help thou, I am learning...
Elaine, Only at a final intermediate bottom will the selling pressure become heavy enough to affect miners. They can easily ignore a stock market correction for the first 3/4 of the move.
Sophia, Scalping these little wiggles is the recipe for losing money.
If all you do is take little profits then sooner or later you will get caught in a daily cycle correction and all those little profits will go up in smoke. And if you are the nervous type then you will end up selling at the bottom of the correction.
You need to put your money in physical so you can have a chance to profit from this bull. You are obviously not emotional suited to ride the bull in a trading account.
Sophia: The problem is that if you only ever take small gains one bad mistake and you'll be in the hole. If you have to take 5 gains to make up for each for each loss you have to be right over 80% of the time to just break even! How about this instead: once you have a gain of any size you have some room before getting back to even. YOu had $15 an ounce room in gold. Why not hold it until either even or Gary says "time to sell?" You ought to be able to sleep when you are ahead. If gold gaps down $15/ounce the next day you get out without loss. It's not about "learning" it's about not constantly giving in to your emotions. If you can't at least partially master your emotions you may well lose a lot of money at this game.
Maybe, maybe not...I don't know so many traders that are emotionALLY suited for anything.... I will not ride the whole bull, but I didn't join your blog for that...I like the discussion and I like extracting $25.000 here and there...
Why are the PMs going up on the China Rate Hike? Was it less than expected or are they letting their currency actually appreciate a little at the same time. Any thoughts?
Hey big guy, Great webinar! Been checked out getting settled into the new water view home (courtesy of 2010). The silence is most welcome to tune out some of the angst about the latest squiggles.
Alex: Would you consider breaking your caps key for me? How about for $5? BTW, I slightly overslept this morning (I'm in CA) and missed re-shorting FCX. Damn. By 9:35 it was down for the day already.
I have to buy Hacienda 2 first! House hunting early summer when the D starts. I was starting to think I would have to settle for a pimped out RV. Thankfully, it looks like the elusive C wave is here. Hallelujah!
A gap on AGQ is really meaningless, as is a gap on the GLD & SLV charts, as has been discussed here before.
It's truly a 24 hr market for the PMs (amongst other things) so these instruments that only trade during U.S. market hours are going to have gaps quite often as they "catch up" to the world market's progress from the previous U.S. market close.
The same could be said for the miners, in large part, because they tend to follow the the PMs, of course.
Why are people still trading in and out of stocks? The swing-low was a week or so ago. Wasn't that the time to get in and hold until the next swing-high? If you bought in at the latest swing low, you already made 10% - that's my paper profit, so far.
right... so gaps from 24h instruments are a bit different than normal stock gaps, ha? I suspected that but I never heard or read anything about it so far... thanks!
As the dollar starts fall through the 76 level , I think everyone will turn to stocks for protection, and I think that's when we start to get the correction. In recent past they trade inversely but I think they will go down hand in hand and screw the average poor working slob like myself who otherwise would not know any better. Just being cynical let's see what happens.
Haggerty: My two cents----Interesting thought, but are you sure you are not just rationalizing your short position? One can always find ten good reasons to be bullish and ten good reasons to be bearish. Focusing on the ones that agree with a losing position is dangerous. Maybe focus on the bullish side of the argument until you get scared enough to cover more ;-)
I wonder when the new media will catch on to the falling dollar story. They are talking inflation of course, higher gas, higher commods (mostly through the filter of the rest of the world.) But when our own currency starts to crack, I can't imagine they would ignore it.
That will provoke some kind of reaction from John/Jane investors, hopefully pumping our beloved PMs, of course! However, there will most likely be a general market reaction. Haggerty, you may be right, even with the dollar falling stocks may start to fall with them?
FWIW Jim Rogers is also short tech stocks. But then Rogers doesn't try to time perfect entries. When he see's something extremely extended he takes his position and then sits with it.
I suspect by this summer any shorts will be huge winners. The question is can bears have the fortitude to sit with their position that long? Can the weather the draw down while waiting for it to work? And can they accept missing a big run in precious metals while waiting for their short to work?
I was thinking about saving what I have left but at this point I am willing to lose it all. Believe me it hurts cause I am "small time" but it's not enough where I need to leave the table. I just think with the way we jumped back in to PM's a couple of weeks ago and got stopped out the same day and how things are just not following the "NORM".
This is just pure speculation not betting the house on it, just willing to lose what I have pretty much lost anyway.
We should see stocks start to fall when inflation spikes high enough to damage discretionary spending. That seemed to be a little above $100 oil last time.
Haggerty: Sorry to hear it. The lessons are much cheaper when you have little at stake, but the pain is just as real and can be a great motivator to figure out what you did wrong and then SWEAR to yourself you won't do it again. Eventually you will make every realistic mistake and then you can really start making some money! Hang in there and learn. (If I may...take Gary's comment to heart about not shorting bull markets. Trying to pick a top in a bull market is VERY difficult and rarely worth the effort and losses that come with it).
1373 on the April gold futures would put gold at the top of the new uptrending channel. I suspect we'll get a reaction there, but who knows--could be just a sideways thing to let the channel line continue to move up.
I still have a bit I want to add, maybe 15 percent of my account. Waiting for final confirmations that the IT low was the real deal. Right translated daily cycle would probably do it, but if I wait that long, should probably just wait for the daily cycle to bottom (even though it will likely be at a higher price than where we are today!)
Hi Gary, I am wondering why SIL seems to be underperforming. Many of it's top holdings are significantly up more than the ETF. Any thoughts? Thanks, Todd
I saw some clip of Rogers somewhere just recently and he said that he had not been short anything for a long time, but was now short tech (and something else that escapes me). But he is a lousy short-term timer as Gary said, but he is patient when he knows he's right.
Your right. I did listen to Gary in a way because my position would have been much larger so I toned down the trade at the beginning. Thank God.
I have now written off that trade but still hold it. I think there are more curveballs to come. Just when guys like Gary who are right a majority of the time think maybe we are in a runaway move in stocks and everyone thinks that the market will stay afloat or move up because of the dollar falling that's when it will catch the majority on the wrong side of the trade.
From now on I'm just going to follow Gary to the T. I am now very heavy in AGQ and going to just wait for this to run it's course and then get out at the D wave.
BTW DG, Gary, ETC, thanks for your input and time. I know it's valuable
Are we getting a trend day today? Open drive out of range,IB is narrow, but I'm not seeing confident range extension to really tip it over to the upside, seems more like tiptoeing.
You have to understand that these ETF's simply hold positions in mining companies and therefore they have an easily determined NAV. You could expect a small premium to NAV, but beyond that, SIL should perform to the extent it's equity holdings perform.
As for SIL, it's not the best vehicle in my opinion, because more than 50% of assets are invested in big cap silver, so they wont move like the juniors.
See here: http://www.globalxfunds.com/fundholdings.php?fundid=18493&catid=22
If you want exposure to Juniors, just stick with GDXJ, it has a very broad spectrum of miners and contrary to what the name suggests, has very high exposure to Silver miners.
Not surprisingly, Rogers see oil at $150, and the exchange between Rogers and some CNBC guy discussing the role of speculators (it is all the evil speculators' fault, never the Chairsaint) is worth watching the clip alone.
Rogers' response to CNBC's desperate attempt to get him to list a stock or two for the lemmings to buy into, the response is priceless: "Commodities have outperformed stock by 10 times over the last 10-12 years. Why aren't you doing only commodities. It's outperformed stocks by 1,000%. To me it's pretty simple, you should change the name to CommoditiesNBC."
And, finally, his response to what his stock exposure is is not what CNBC wanted to hear. "I am short emerging markets ETFs, short Nasdaq ETFs."
I am not seeing or hearing the recording when I click that link in the post. Help?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.apeakunderthehood.blogspot.com/
ReplyDeleteStormy Weather Ahead?... Don't Be Surprised.
DDN3F
ReplyDeleteIts working for me...are you on MUTE or volume too low?
Alex,
ReplyDeleteThanks. Maybe I will try on my home computer. The work settings might be blocking something.
Gary,
ReplyDeleteI sent in a question yesterday that I guess you sorta answered. I believe that you expect this C wave to move up quickly. Do you expect that in the first daily cycle that Gold will push past its high? Is that the confirmation of higher high to add on your 15% leverage?
DDN3F
ReplyDeleteOne last thing, you probably know this...the media bar on that page also has a volume control on the far left. scroll on it and you can adjust the volume if its too low.
or maybe its your 'work settings' as you said.
dd-
ReplyDeleteI think my work computer is blocking something also??
It is definitely the work settings. I do not see a media bar at all. I am guessing it would be right below the "Welcome to the Call Replay" on the right hand side. It's a nice empty space for me.
ReplyDeleteKinda sucks I still have to work and can't retire early like Gary.
For me too.It's not a volume problem cause there's no link to click.Nothing happens....
ReplyDeleteIs the $HUI up against a long term resistance relative to gold? Can it get back into "bull market" valuations relative to gold?
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$HUI&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p45476586352&a=223825933
It's interesting to see the $HUI still at levels seen at the March 08 and Dec 09 peaks, when gold was trading at some 30% and 10% lower than today.
But much more startling is the $200 run in gold during Spring 2006, peaking gold at $730. At this peak, the $HUI hit 407, a mere 1.72 the ratio of hold and just 120 points below where it stands today. Since then though, gold has essentially doubled!
Looking at the long term $GOLD:$HUI, it suggests to me that we still have not shaken off the trauma associated with the PM's collapse of 2008. At the bottom in 2008, the HUI traded at just 150.
Is this the run where PM's get back into favor and break back down below the 2:1 ratio?
I think precious metals are done rising for the time being. At best, it goes sideways. The market is very strong. As it goes higher, there will be less fear-based buying of gold and silver.
ReplyDeleteI can't see a media bar either on my home computer. :-(
ReplyDeleteAlex: Covered my FCX when it reclaimed the 50 DMA at 56.32. I do not plan to get out of my China short unless (FXP) unless have to. I may get to do FCX a third time. :-) Maybe it'll drop to 4.16 then.
ReplyDeleteI think you need quicktime on your computer to listen to the recording.
ReplyDeleteYou can down load quicktime free. Just google it.
Gary: I assume the later it gets the less likely it is that Gold will drop since we are getting deeper and deeper into the cycle. Is that right? Seems to me that MLMT is running out of time for his expectations to come to pass...?
ReplyDeleteDG,
ReplyDeleteIf gold can keep making highs into at least day 12 then the daily cycle will become right translated and the odds will go down significantly the recent low will be violated.
I am guessing it would be right below the "Welcome to the Call Replay" on the right hand side.
ReplyDeleteGood guess, thats where it is.
Corebuilder...doesn't work on your home p.c.? Does utube or other media websites? Wonder if your 'settings' or 'Parental settings' could be blocking it?? Maybe someone on here can help you with that.
DG
ReplyDeleteNice trade , still p[laying it like a fiddle :)
So far gold and the HUI are just forming what looks to be a small bull flag which is what I was expecting (either that or a brief sideways consolidation) after the large move Thursday.
ReplyDeleteSilver on the other hand is just continuing to grind higher which is a good sign as it appears to be leading gold again like it did during the last run.
Poly
ReplyDeleteThanks for the chart...i was also thinking about that ratio...and I think that's going to change soon , since the HUI and GDX have broken above long term resistance , and basically just retested that break out I.M.O.
FWIW
ReplyDeleteTo go along with Garys post...I DO have quicktime on my laptop
Gary: The website say 1/27 was Day 5, so today is day 12, and gold touched a new high today. Am I getting that right? Feels like i am missing something.
ReplyDeleteFidelity sees SPX 1800 in 2012
ReplyDeletehttps://guidance.fidelity.com/viewpoints/breakout-to-the-upside .
Where would precious metals be trading at when Dow goes to 18,000?
If 28 january was the bottom on gold, today is day 6 of new daily cicle.Am i wrong?
ReplyDeleteThe stock market is very, very strong. It keeps ripping through the top of every channel line. Amazing.
ReplyDeleteThe rise in the stock market since september has been one of the greatest trends I have ever seen. Almost a 30% gain with 4% maximum drawdown. It doesn´t get any better than that.
You have to have Flash installed to listen to Gary's webinar.
ReplyDeleteI have flash, shockwave and quicktime, I am on my home computer and still can´t listen to the conference call :(
ReplyDeleteDay 6 if I remember correctly. I will update the cycle charts in a bit. I'm trying to get in a lite workout this afternoon.
ReplyDeleteStill really sore from the tournament this weekend.
Oh, I see, the website cycle count page is wrong. Gary, forgive me, but there isn't much point posting the cycle count if, when a new low is formed, the page is not updated. I guess I need to check the count myself anyway, though it'd be great to have an accurate count on the website.
ReplyDeleteI am 60% through the webinar , and at 60% through , Gary is going over why , even though he has been calling a top for SPX for a couple of months...he would NEVER short it.
ReplyDeleteQuiz time-
Who am I thinking of right now??
Sorry Gary, our last posts crossed in cyberspace.
ReplyDeletedavid, change browser.With mozilla works.I done it.
ReplyDeleteJust updated the cycle charts. They were current up until today and that included gold which I had at day 5 not counting today.
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteDo you have any price projections for the Dollar low?
I was going through my dollar chart, and based on a confluence of projections I came up with a range between $56-$59. Do you have any opinion about price targets for the dollar or you just work with time projections?
R_B_RT
ReplyDeleteCan I have a vowel Alex?
Daniele
ReplyDeleteI am using mozilla firefox browser too , that may be it.
ahhh , I'll take a loss...I mean an 'o' :)
ReplyDeleteYep, the problem seems to be with IE browser. I´m on Chrome now and am able to listen to the call.
ReplyDeletealex, sure it's browser's fault.Hope david will manage to listen as i'm doing now.It's not simply for me understand all things gary says.... :-)
ReplyDeleteDavid,
ReplyDeleteUsually bear markets break slightly below prior lows followed by a strong rally. So if I had to guess I would think maybe some where around 68/69.
Alex, Why did you insist I cover FCX? Oh well, I guess some other short can make some money here. I actually started to place the order to re-short it when it got back down below the 56.30 but didn't pull the trigger. It's all your fault! (I'll curse you out later when I have the time.)
ReplyDeleteIf oil can break to new lows I will have to rethink the early bottom and go back to the old cycle count which would be 51 today.
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteSorry to be asking too many questions, this is the last one :)
Is there a cycle in the dollar bigger than the 3 year cycle? I am asking this because by looking at the monthly chart, it seems that this next bottom in the dollar will be a huge bottom. There is a massive triangle on the monthly chart, and triangles usually precede the last leg on a trend. So could this next 3 year cycle low also be the low of a much larger cycle? for example. a 10 year cycle...
thanks
I haven't seen anything that would suggest the dollar has a larger cycle than the three year.
ReplyDeleteRobert... I MEAN DG (haha)
ReplyDeleteMy apologies!
I was seeing that possible cup w/high handle on a 3 day chart
look at FNSR 3month daily ,or TIBX , since you thought the handle had to slope downward... thats the cup w/handle pop I feared for you (shorting copper)
Besides , the fat lady , she hasnt sung yet. Its not 4 p.m.
sil, & gdxj not doing much today...
ReplyDeleteOA9200
ReplyDeleteDidnt you just hear what I said about a cup/handle on the 3 day charts ? GDXJ , 3 day chart , cup/handle?? :)
Ahh ,DG , do not short this one, ok?
Just kidding here...interesting to watch in the last hour , but I am not recommending anything here :)
just messing around.
Alex: You know I'm kidding, right? You are fun to poke at. Damn thing's down in the mid 55's now. Oh well, gratifying to know I can pick 'em at least. If the 50 turns over and it can rally back to it I'll do it again. Funny calling it "Freeport Copper and Gold" when it's getting killed and the whole PM complex is up today.
ReplyDeleteDG
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely felt you were kidding , and I was too. Slow day , makes the time better. Goodtimes!
Alex: I studied O'Neill for a while and I believe the handle really does need to slope down because the weak holders need to be getting out. If memory serves he is very precise about it sloping down and not getting below the 1/2 way point of the cup.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, go FXP!
Gary ,I just finished listening to the recording. Thank you for your great insights on the C wave and the D wave cycles.
ReplyDeletecnbc talking about silver
ReplyDeleteSubtitle:
ReplyDelete"Time for Silver to Shine?"
Nothing like being late to the party.
DG
ReplyDeleteYes, I studied him too , and he does say that , However..Did ya tell that to TIBX, FNSR , JDSU , etc this month?? haha
The higher handle means stregth and less sellers , I.M.O. On a longer term (6 or 8 months)it is accumulation.
Pima: Notice the OEXers from the 12:00 to 12:30 post. They bought 1600 puts and 80 calls. Now that's a statement!...and we died right there. But it's only good for an entry point or a trade and doesn't tell us even how we will close.
ReplyDeleteGary
ReplyDeleteThat was an enjoyable webinar and lots of good reminders.
One side note: That web page could be misunderstood where it says
Copy/Paste
CLICK HERE TO GET A 20% DISCOUNT ON YOUR MEMBERSHIP TO THE SMART MONEY TRACKER PREMIUM & 3 FREE MONTHS
Because it implies a 20% discount in any timeframe ,plus 3 months. EX , someone may sign up for 6 months and think its at 20% off , and for 9 months. (Or is it?)
Thanks
Alex: Everything is going up. A malformed handle doesn't mean it can't go up, just that it doesn't fit his pattern. Heck, 95% of what has already gone up sharply does not fit his pattern. It's just that if you are buying it as a C-with-H, it is more likely to fail if the weak hands have not yet gotten out. Of course if the SPX rockets straight up what difference does it make? What did Buffett say, "It takes the tide going out to see who's been swimming naked." (I'm not referring to you, just that in this market patterns are almost irrelevant, and everyone thinks he's a long-side genius.)
ReplyDeleteTrue , True
ReplyDeleteBen,
ReplyDeleteTHANK YOU!
S&P. From this point forward, imo, there will be a big parabolic sweep up to a climax.
ReplyDeleteI posted recently that I disagreed with Gary's assessement of our reaching an unactionable high in the S&P.
I said that it looked like there would be a further extension. The marginal rate of increase will now increase.
This is a blow off high, and it will extend easily into 14000 on the DJIA.
There are quite a few (still a minority) charts that will show you this same move, historically. So, this is nothing new.
Robert, give it up man! The more of this type of crap you post, the less sympathy anyone has for you. You made a bad call, it was your call.
ReplyDeleteIt hurts, anyone who have traded for more than 1 month knows the feeling of being down and probably being down big.
It's time to concentrate on rebuilding both your emotions and your capital. Don't turn into a hater, please!
It is still a secular bear market. If your are willing to just sit with your short position it will eventually turn out to be a winning trade. The downside is one might have to weather an even more extended draw down and you could miss the final C-wave advance while waiting shorts to work.
ReplyDeleteI missed it, but why would anyone be net short right now?
ReplyDeleteIf you are going to take a stab at a short, make sure you have enough long side exposure to at least hedge it off.
Being net short never really makes sense, ever. The math just not work.
Robert - instead why not be long PM 100% and short SP 500 the same amount?
With POMO almost daily until June 11 I think it is - being short is asking for pain.
Gary
ReplyDeleteJust listened to the audio and I hope your right about this possibly dragging on to 2016 or so.
I agree with you with 99% of the time. However, where I disagree with you is when you said that "what is gold other then what we say it's worth". Thats the attitude we should have for fiat currency's. Because the end game could be where the world or some country's go back to a gold standard with or without the US, and maybe not end in a bubble. Gold might end in a fixed value.
Now I am nervous type of guy so I have physical silver on me and it comforts me to a degree that your not nervous to the degree that you need to have physical metals on you.
But I think you really need to have a portion in physical just in case. NO?
Haggerty,
ReplyDeleteIf it starts to look like we are about to enter a hyperinflation then I would buy physical. Obviously we aren't close to that at the moment.
Robert, as an FYI, I only laugh because I have been there. Emotions are a killer when trading. Now you have to fight the urge to get it all back in one or two aggressive trades. The Market will sniff you out and throttle you if you try that.
ReplyDeleteThere is a conversation that applies to you on Moo's blog as well:
"After loosing almost $180k in just 2 days (due to my stupidity), when I tried to
get everything back, I lost more and then more and kept loosing for next 2 years.
After that I went back to papertrading, sharpened my skills, found my niche and
slowly entered the market and build confidence, still building..."
The fact is if someone went short with 100% of their portfolio when we got our first selling on strength day at about 1200 they are only down 10%.
ReplyDeleteRobert's irrational outburst isn't caused by a 10% draw down. It's very obvious he leveraged huge into what he thought was a sure thing, probably with options that are about to, or have already expired.
So not only did he not listen to me about shorting he also ignored my warnings about leverage.
And if I remember right I warned him several times on the blog here that he was taking a huge risk and should reconsider.
I guess he didn't take any of my warnings seriously.
Haggerty, if you missed bkudla's post, here is the link to the ZeroHedge article that states JP Morgan Accepts Gold Bullion As Collateral.
ReplyDeleteNote, they are *not* accepting the ETF, that says something. The (re-)monitization of Gold is happening right now.
2nd day of gold pausing (and pulling back a bit) after thursday's spike higher. I think the congestion is pretty much over and the lows today will hold.
ReplyDeleteI suspect we go higher now tonight and tomorrow.
(It is actually good that gold didn't continue running after thursday because it makes it much less likely we retrace back down to these levels once we resume higher.)
> they are *not* accepting the ETF
ReplyDeleteActually, this is just a speculation... there is no information about "nonacceptance" of ETF in JPM press release.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/morning-gold-fixing-jp-morgan-accepts-gold-bullion-collateral-%E2%80%93-silver-backwardation-lead-sh#comment-940288
Robert,
ReplyDeleteThe simple fact is you thought you were smarter than the market. If you had even just listened to me about leverage you could easily recover all your losses in a couple of days riding the gold bull.
But you knew more than me about that also. Now you are paying the price for your hubris. It's time to grow up. You have no one to blame but yourself.
Robert,
ReplyDeleteMy memory is that Gary never told anyone to go short.
At several points he cautioned against shorting. Finally, sometime in January, he suggested on the premium site that "those who wish to take a stab at the short side can do so" with a small portion of their equity. He even said this was mainly to keep itchy trigger fingers busy while waiting for the intermediate bottom. At no point was this part of his recommended allocation.
Where from that do you get that he is responsible for your losses? He was bearish and wrong, but at no point did he instruct subscribers to short. If you've been following Gary's instructions precisely, you should have very little in the way of losses right now.
I can count dozens of investment bloggers who have been bearish the last few months. Are they responsible for your losses too?
And by the way, what kind of idiot puts a large portion of their money at risk based on the opinion of some blogger in Las Vegas? If that's the sole basis on which you made an investment, then you deserve to lose money.
My memory is also that you spent a lot of time on this site back in November/December crowing about your gains, about "chasing good MPLS tail", fast cars, talking about how rich you were going to be, etc.
ReplyDeleteI don't remember you giving Gary credit for your gains back then. Those were all you, right?
When you grow up, you should run an investment bank. You have the same mentality: Privatize the gains, socialize the losses.
Interesting day at the Ol' blog.
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteI have noticed that the U.S. dollar index bull fund 'UUP' has increased in price over the last four trading days but with low AND falling volume.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=uup
Is this something that interests you as the dollar begins its rally to the pivot at 79?
Rob,
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't short UUP if that's what you are asking.
I just want to chime in to say that I agree with David.
ReplyDeleteGary has been careful not to take any short positions or recommend shorts except if using a small portion of equity with a close stop, and even then only at the very specific points he has mentioned in the daily cycle where shorting might work out (eg. first down day after four or more up days).
If you listen to the webinar, he mentions for the umpteenth time why he doesn't short bull markets (cyclical or secular) except perhaps in extremely rare circumstances (such as the Dollar coming out of a 3-year cycle low).
Gary, some of us do pay attention to what you actually write in your letters each night. Please do not get frustrated by those that don't (not saying that you are...but just in case).
Gary,
ReplyDeleteNo. I wasn't going to short UUP. I meant its low volume and rising price as further confirmation that the $USD has little upside, as we wait for it to tank and for precious metals to rally hard....hopefully. :)
Thanks for looking out for me. You da man!
webinar
ReplyDeleteim having trouble trying to listen to the webinar. the link that was provided by tudor doesnt work for me. anybody that can help me?
Try downloading quicktime.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI think you should change the webinar photo to you either: a) smashing weights around a gym; b) hanging off a vertical cliff with blue sky and a killer drop in the background.
ReplyDeleteThe vibe of the existing photo is just off. I can't explain it.
It's an MP3 file embedded in Adobe Shockwave player. You can download the raw MP3:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.askaboutgold.info/SMTcall.mp3
Earlier I asked , are there 2 Roberts?? Because if we just heard from THIS Robert , then it explains A LOT!!
ReplyDeleteRobert said...
I never have touched options, but whenever I think about them or hear about them my eyes grow very large- that is a sign that I should not be using them! ;)
January 9, 2011 8:00 PM
TK has a chart of $XAU and explains that precious metals are the broken market now and good to short
ReplyDeleteSweet...Next leg up in the AM. Thanks Nikeboy.
ReplyDeleteTo Trader H, Tz and others:
ReplyDeletedownload link is:
http://askaboutgold.info/SMTcall.mp3
"Save As" link was also added to the page just in case anybody else has problems...
ReplyDeletewhy would Gary put a photo of himself lifting weights or rock climbing when the presentation is about investing in the markets?
ReplyDeleteIf anything he should be wearing a gold or silver chain! :)
Robert,
ReplyDeleteI hope you learned from this...Humble pie is not fun...but we have all been there! I have come to think that every person that makes money has been burnt at this point. Eventually our pride gets in the way and we go "all in" too many times. And despite all negatives towards you, we could easily be talking about ourselves at a certain point.
All the best!
I can see where Razvan is coming from... What Gary needs is some bling bling.. ahahahah
ReplyDeleteI like the idea of Gary with the "yo-yo" bling idea...perhaps put on a sideways hat, with a smirk, crossed arms...Call it Gary's Gangsta advice..."Going for the Bling"
ReplyDeleteTop it off with a backwards peace sign!
Thanks Ben.
ReplyDeletefinally able to access the webinar. thx guys
>why would Gary put a photo of himself lifting weights or rock climbing when the presentation is about investing in the markets?
ReplyDeleteIf anything he should be wearing a gold or silver chain! :)
sumpthin' like dis..
http://www.dorm-room-biz.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/LiL-Jon-Crunk.jpg
it is a gold bull after all
:-)
Treasury bond bearishness is now "off the chart." See attached from sentimentrader.com Be careful if you own TBT!
ReplyDeletehttp://img12.imageshack.us/img12/6250/tlt.png
Gary-
ReplyDeleteI received your twiiter text stating the new report was posted but still only see the weekend report as the latest report on the premium site?
I refreshed and logged out and back in on my side but still no success?
Just an FYI!
Thank you.
That was strange. It was there one minute and gone the next.
ReplyDeleteIt's back up.
Gary--
ReplyDeleteOOOPS -- Never mind !! It is available now!
Thank you!!
Gary,
ReplyDeleteDoc agrees with your idea that the dollar will bottom at the end of this int-cycle in spring, but he also says to keep an "open mind" about the possibility that the dollar will form a int-cycle low at the end of this month followed by another cycle into a low near the end of June. Do you see that as possible?
There is the possibility of one more intermediate cycle before a final bottom. I tend to think it would be more likely to bottom in the late fall. That does tend to be when we get these currency crisis.
ReplyDeletePlus the last yearly cycle low came in Nov. If the next cycle were to manage to stretch another year then we would expect the bottom next Nov.
I'm liking the bull flag on Gold. Will be a buyer tomorrow, and again at a break of the recent high.
ReplyDeleteNikeBoy,
ReplyDeleteGood grief...even for TK that sounded unbelievable, so I had to check it out myself. He thinks the PMs are darn near the most flawed market in the world. :facepalm:
Quoth Tim: "I seriously think that GLD, SLV, and GDX are all poised for meaningful drops. The equity indexes are all still annoyingly, agonizingly, irritatingly strong. But metals.........they're bear-ready."
Makes me want to get on the horn to my broker and borrow some leverage in the A.M.
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/intraday.gif?s=NYBOT_DX&t=f&w=15&a=0&v=w
ReplyDeletedollar put in a H&S top pattern in the middle of today and now looks ready to break the uptrend line of last few days.
things looking good to me.
Hi Gary,
ReplyDeleteYou mentioned that you don't see hyperinflation happening any time soon. Can you explain why you have come to this conclusion? Under what circumstances do you think hyperinflation will occur. How do you spot the onset of hyperinflation? Thanks much in advance for the insights.
What in the world is going on here. All these posts about Robert being short and why he shouldn't be, but zero posts from Robert? Have you all gone nuts? What happened to gold and silver?
ReplyDeleteRebecca,
ReplyDeleteI would expect we would see rapidly rising inflation first before it morphs into a hyperinflation.
Aren't we already seeing that in food and all other commodities?
ReplyDeleteBRIAN
ReplyDeletecheck the previous comment page for this morning before 'webinar' under 'summer break'
look around posts time stamped 7.30 a.m.
Robert kind of got on here and went off hard ...f-bombs and all.
Thanks Alex, I saw what was coming with him a couple months ago. He mentioned last month that he quit drinking. I think that experience was short lived.......
ReplyDeleteThe reason you don't see any posts from Robert is that he leaves a post, then deletes it as soon as Gary reads it.
ReplyDeleteThe gist of his posts is: I lost money shorting the market, and it's Gary's fault. *sniff*
Money never sleeps, but I guess most of you guys do.
ReplyDeleteSwing high in dollar. Metals rockin.
I'm keepin all the money for myself till you clowns wake up
:-)
easy TZ
ReplyDeleteI am in on this run as well
maybe we can split it, just dont tell the blog
Don't be so quick to discard the observers! They will want their share as well!
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteSeeing as how today is Feb. 8, I was wondering if you'd heard about Wynter Benton's prediction of a spike in silver prices from today into March 1 by people who will demand physical delivery.
http://www.commoditypress.com/tag/wynter-benton/
You think there could be something to that?
Dollar swing high eh? Alright!
ReplyDeleteI'm showing gold up about a $1.60 and silver up 5 cents.
ReplyDeleteRockin?
So today is your day when gold will open around 1361 and screw those who shorted 1361 intra-day spike last week.. Very likely we will sell off from there..
ReplyDeleteI expect ES (SPX futures) to do the same... by opening around 1318.25... or at least higher than 1316.. go to 1318.25 and then sell off...
I expect that we will be back to near the opening levels or highs of the day by EOD...
@DG,
ReplyDeleteMLMT said gold needs to close near 1361 level before the sell off can come...
Oops, gold just had another spasm.
ReplyDeleteLooks like we are busting out at the seams.
ReplyDeleteare MLMT and mylifemytrade diff. ppl?
ReplyDeleteLock and load......
ReplyDeleteis the dollar rally over already?
ReplyDeleteMLMT still waiting to buy metals? Better get 'em while they're cheap!
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteCycles are only good for spotting bottoms, but pretty much worthless for tops, right? But I was just thinking in tthe case of the Dollar index, the tops will always coincide with the bottoms in the EURUSD. Which means that if there is any consistency to the cycles in the EURUSD, than there should also be cycles which refer to the tops in the dollar index. Have you ever tried counting cycles in the EURUSD pair? Do you know of anyone that does that? It could really help in trying to time the tops in the dollar index.
If the dollar has indeed peaked, then Gary was right about his 1-6 day prediction.
ReplyDeleteGood call! 72 here we come...
time for that thing to dive.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteIf the stock market makes a big correction, wouldn't it drag PMs down with it?
Thank you.
I've been following that wynter-benton stuff on JPM/Comex hedge fund-March delivery Catbird. Go to JPM's board on Yahoo and the poster there is wynter-benton. It's certainly entertaining if nothing else! She said several weeks ago Feb 8th was the day this would start going down, so I find today's spike up kind of interesting.
ReplyDeleteShe just posted this-
"It was The Leader who took silver up in the middle of the night only to allow Blythe to think that she trapped us with that China interest rate hike.
It was our group who leaked the China interest rate hike story before it was even announced. Blythe fell for the trap and shorted like crazy.
Now witness the destruction of Blythe and The Morgue itself."
Guys, if you need me to be a contrary indicator, I am happy to help you!! Ah ah...
ReplyDeleteI followed Gary's advice and bought Gold at 1349.3 yesterday. Just sold back at 1363 ( I know Gary, you are going to tell me NOT to do that, but I feel more confortable and I can sleep better...).
Thanks for your help thou, I am learning...
Elaine,
ReplyDeleteOnly at a final intermediate bottom will the selling pressure become heavy enough to affect miners. They can easily ignore a stock market correction for the first 3/4 of the move.
Sophia,
ReplyDeleteScalping these little wiggles is the recipe for losing money.
If all you do is take little profits then sooner or later you will get caught in a daily cycle correction and all those little profits will go up in smoke. And if you are the nervous type then you will end up selling at the bottom of the correction.
You need to put your money in physical so you can have a chance to profit from this bull. You are obviously not emotional suited to ride the bull in a trading account.
Bought 5000 more cxz at the open..
ReplyDeleteChart looks great , higher than normal volume. Appears to be forming reverse head & shoulders with volume on the upside.
Knock Knock....$30.
ReplyDeleteNUG T seems to perform as intended. maybe Gary will dump the miners for the 2x fund?
ReplyDeleteSophia: The problem is that if you only ever take small gains one bad mistake and you'll be in the hole. If you have to take 5 gains to make up for each for each loss you have to be right over 80% of the time to just break even! How about this instead: once you have a gain of any size you have some room before getting back to even. YOu had $15 an ounce room in gold. Why not hold it until either even or Gary says "time to sell?" You ought to be able to sleep when you are ahead. If gold gaps down $15/ounce the next day you get out without loss. It's not about "learning" it's about not constantly giving in to your emotions. If you can't at least partially master your emotions you may well lose a lot of money at this game.
ReplyDeleteMaybe, maybe not...I don't know so many traders that are emotionALLY suited for anything....
ReplyDeleteI will not ride the whole bull, but I didn't join your blog for that...I like the discussion and I like extracting $25.000 here and there...
Why are the PMs going up on the China Rate Hike? Was it less than expected or are they letting their currency actually appreciate a little at the same time. Any thoughts?
ReplyDeleteWhy extract 25,000 every so often when you can just sit tight, do nothing, and walk away with millions?
ReplyDeleteTK gave the green light to short.
ReplyDeleteMLMT: We are near your target. What would tell you your scenario from here is wrong?
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteOnce again a great call on entry point.
Is everybody all in or are people still adding at these levels.
I am 90 % invested and have final 10 % left to invest, trying to decide when to go in.
She said $25 dollars I believe.
ReplyDeleteSteven,
ReplyDeleteBecause it's a bull market. The intermediate profit taking correction is probably over, and the dollar is beginning a currency crisis.
$25.00??? Does that even cover commissions?
ReplyDeleteSandy,
ReplyDeletePerhaps set a trade trigger to buy when GLD touches the 10 DMA.
Jayhawk
ReplyDeleteRBY is back to where I sold it the first time :)
I bought some lower , but it just goes to show you that the Bull does correct itself once it gets going
DG
Silver just broke out to the upside and I imagine GOLD WILL FOLLOW...that WILL FORCE mlmt TO CHANGE HIS PLAN. (HOPE HE'S NOT PILING ON THE SHORTS :)
ahhh..wasnt yelling that, I hit caps lock by istake hehe
ReplyDeleteHey big guy,
ReplyDeleteGreat webinar! Been checked out getting settled into the new water view home (courtesy of 2010). The silence is most welcome to tune out some of the angst about the latest squiggles.
Alex: Would you consider breaking your caps key for me? How about for $5? BTW, I slightly overslept this morning (I'm in CA) and missed re-shorting FCX. Damn. By 9:35 it was down for the day already.
ReplyDeleteFWIW, Northwest Territorial Mint is a great place to pick up bullion. Their 1000 oz silver bars make great bookends. : )
ReplyDeleteFergie,
ReplyDeleteI'm still planning on coming up to see this spectacular place...and collect a burrito or two.
I'll wait till it warms up though :)
I have to buy Hacienda 2 first! House hunting early summer when the D starts. I was starting to think I would have to settle for a pimped out RV. Thankfully, it looks like the elusive C wave is here. Hallelujah!
ReplyDeleteDG
ReplyDeleteI have considered breaking my left pinky, since this seems to be the ROOT of the problem! :)
Was it oversleep or over indulgence of California veno?
gary, how come you don't use PSLV?
ReplyDeleteGary, any thoughts about the gap on AGQ today?
ReplyDeleteGPR.TO started trading on NYSE today,symbol GPL,if anyone's interested
ReplyDeleteTHANK YOU Discreet Shopping!!!
ReplyDeleteI was wondering about that and forgotto do my research. Thanks!
Because I want the added exposure of AGQ. If I just wanted to track silver I would buy SLV.
ReplyDeleteBen,
ReplyDeleteGaps in ultra funds don't always fill. The gap in GLD might though.
If one wanted to add my suggestion is to set a trade trigger to buy when GLD touches the 10 DMA. Then reset it every morning as the MA rises.
A gap on AGQ is really meaningless, as is a gap on the GLD & SLV charts, as has been discussed here before.
ReplyDeleteIt's truly a 24 hr market for the PMs (amongst other things) so these instruments that only trade during U.S. market hours are going to have gaps quite often as they "catch up" to the world market's progress from the previous U.S. market close.
The same could be said for the miners, in large part, because they tend to follow the the PMs, of course.
Why are people still trading in and out of stocks? The swing-low was a week or so ago. Wasn't that the time to get in and hold until the next swing-high? If you bought in at the latest swing low, you already made 10% - that's my paper profit, so far.
ReplyDeleteso how come the disparity in move on agq compared to slw gdxj sil etc
ReplyDeletei am 100 in now last %10 this morning i should have jumped all in when gary said but shy after blip call last month
so how about leverage entry team - when?
I told you that millions are not for me... :-)
ReplyDeleteAnd Avann, we are not talking rupies....
NG seems to have good volume but it's still flat for the day...my guess is that it needs to clear the resistance at 15
ReplyDeleteSilver futures pop through $30
ReplyDeleteright... so gaps from 24h instruments are a bit different than normal stock gaps, ha? I suspected that but I never heard or read anything about it so far... thanks!
ReplyDeleteAs the dollar starts fall through the 76 level , I think everyone will turn to stocks for protection, and I think that's when we start to get the correction. In recent past they trade inversely but I think they will go down hand in hand and screw the average poor working slob like myself who otherwise would not know any better. Just being cynical let's see what happens.
ReplyDeleteHaggerty: My two cents----Interesting thought, but are you sure you are not just rationalizing your short position? One can always find ten good reasons to be bullish and ten good reasons to be bearish. Focusing on the ones that agree with a losing position is dangerous. Maybe focus on the bullish side of the argument until you get scared enough to cover more ;-)
ReplyDeleteI wonder when the new media will catch on to the falling dollar story. They are talking inflation of course, higher gas, higher commods (mostly through the filter of the rest of the world.) But when our own currency starts to crack, I can't imagine they would ignore it.
ReplyDeleteThat will provoke some kind of reaction from John/Jane investors, hopefully pumping our beloved PMs, of course! However, there will most likely be a general market reaction. Haggerty, you may be right, even with the dollar falling stocks may start to fall with them?
If SLV takes out 29.64, then my thesis is wrong.
ReplyDeleteMLMT: Thanks. Always useful to post an "If X happens I'm wrong" point, IMO
ReplyDeleteI wish the metals would slow down a little now :)
ReplyDeleteFWIW Jim Rogers is also short tech stocks. But then Rogers doesn't try to time perfect entries. When he see's something extremely extended he takes his position and then sits with it.
ReplyDeleteI suspect by this summer any shorts will be huge winners. The question is can bears have the fortitude to sit with their position that long? Can the weather the draw down while waiting for it to work? And can they accept missing a big run in precious metals while waiting for their short to work?
DG
ReplyDeleteI was thinking about saving what I have left but at this point I am willing to lose it all. Believe me it hurts cause I am "small time" but it's not enough where I need to leave the table. I just think with the way we jumped back in to PM's a couple of weeks ago and got stopped out the same day and how things are just not following the "NORM".
This is just pure speculation not betting the house on it, just willing to lose what I have pretty much lost anyway.
We should see stocks start to fall when inflation spikes high enough to damage discretionary spending. That seemed to be a little above $100 oil last time.
ReplyDeletefwiw...both GLD and GDXJ on the SoS list
ReplyDeleteHaggerty: Sorry to hear it. The lessons are much cheaper when you have little at stake, but the pain is just as real and can be a great motivator to figure out what you did wrong and then SWEAR to yourself you won't do it again. Eventually you will make every realistic mistake and then you can really start making some money! Hang in there and learn. (If I may...take Gary's comment to heart about not shorting bull markets. Trying to pick a top in a bull market is VERY difficult and rarely worth the effort and losses that come with it).
ReplyDelete1373 on the April gold futures would put gold at the top of the new uptrending channel. I suspect we'll get a reaction there, but who knows--could be just a sideways thing to let the channel line continue to move up.
ReplyDeleteI still have a bit I want to add, maybe 15 percent of my account. Waiting for final confirmations that the IT low was the real deal. Right translated daily cycle would probably do it, but if I wait that long, should probably just wait for the daily cycle to bottom (even though it will likely be at a higher price than where we are today!)
Hi Gary,
ReplyDeleteI am wondering why SIL seems to be underperforming. Many of it's top holdings are significantly up more than the ETF. Any thoughts?
Thanks,
Todd
SLW & RFMD have same 1 yr weekly chart with 2 completely different business..
ReplyDeletemy 2 favor stocks.
I don't think Jim Rogers is short tech, or short anything.
ReplyDeleteslw & si hit 50 ma..gdxj above 50 ma
ReplyDeleteSoS number on GLD too small IMO to have much significance. I don't see GDXJ on the list.
ReplyDeleteGood question re underperformance of SIL. I have no idea. It's up LESS than SLV.
ReplyDeleteSIL up 2.35%
SLV up 2.79%
SLW up 3.29%
I saw some clip of Rogers somewhere just recently and he said that he had not been short anything for a long time, but was now short tech (and something else that escapes me). But he is a lousy short-term timer as Gary said, but he is patient when he knows he's right.
ReplyDeleteI know Jim Rogers was short the US back in early 2010. He is down quite a bit if he still held on.
ReplyDeleteTod,
ReplyDeleteIt's only under performing slightly and part of that may be because it's trying to regain the 50 DMA.
Rogers is also short Emerging markets.
ReplyDeleteDG
ReplyDeleteYour right. I did listen to Gary in a way because my position would have been much larger so I toned down the trade at the beginning. Thank God.
I have now written off that trade but still hold it. I think there are more curveballs to come. Just when guys like Gary who are right a majority of the time think maybe we are in a runaway move in stocks and everyone thinks that the market will stay afloat or move up because of the dollar falling that's when it will catch the majority on the wrong side of the trade.
From now on I'm just going to follow Gary to the T. I am now very heavy in AGQ and going to just wait for this to run it's course and then get out at the D wave.
BTW DG, Gary, ETC, thanks for your input and time. I know it's valuable
Jerred (or other profilers)
ReplyDeleteAre we getting a trend day today? Open drive out of range,IB is narrow, but I'm not seeing confident range extension to really tip it over to the upside, seems more like tiptoeing.
Clue me in.
Rogers was not short the market in early 2010. He wasn't short anything from Nov. 08 till just recently because he understood the effect of QE.
ReplyDeleteYou have to understand that these ETF's simply hold positions in mining companies and therefore they have an easily determined NAV. You could expect a small premium to NAV, but beyond that, SIL should perform to the extent it's equity holdings perform.
ReplyDeleteAs for SIL, it's not the best vehicle in my opinion, because more than 50% of assets are invested in big cap silver, so they wont move like the juniors.
See here:
http://www.globalxfunds.com/fundholdings.php?fundid=18493&catid=22
If you want exposure to Juniors, just stick with GDXJ, it has a very broad spectrum of miners and contrary to what the name suggests, has very high exposure to Silver miners.
For SIL, I should have said 50% invested in just 4 big caps.
ReplyDeleteno use to look for MLMT at this point. He is busy piling shorts at the 'mex!
ReplyDeleteRogers was interviewed last week on CNBC and said he was short a little a little, but continues to be massively long commodities.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/jim-rogers-tells-cnbc-change-its-name-commoditesnbc-sees-oil-150-short-nasdaq-etfs
Not surprisingly, Rogers see oil at $150, and the exchange between Rogers and some CNBC guy discussing the role of speculators (it is all the evil speculators' fault, never the Chairsaint) is worth watching the clip alone.
Rogers' response to CNBC's desperate attempt to get him to list a stock or two for the lemmings to buy into, the response is priceless: "Commodities have outperformed stock by 10 times over the last 10-12 years. Why aren't you doing only commodities. It's outperformed stocks by 1,000%. To me it's pretty simple, you should change the name to CommoditiesNBC."
And, finally, his response to what his stock exposure is is not what CNBC wanted to hear. "I am short emerging markets ETFs, short Nasdaq ETFs."
Alex-
ReplyDeleteWish I had more RBY, it's my best performer up 13.5%. AG, AXU, MGN, SLW also all doing well so far.
Josh,
ReplyDeleteYou are starting to sound like a pro!!
great read so far. The most important part is the homework you did yesterday after the close.
what was your hypothesis for today (long, short, or fade the moves)?
what are the areas to do business?
Tight IB with little extension probably sets up for a small trend day.
long and lovin it