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Monday, July 11, 2011

NEW POST

I have updated the stops and trade triggers link on the website.

196 comments:

  1. DG,

    Buying now, or waiting for lower levels?

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  2. G,

    You been peeking at my notes? :)

    Thanks for the update.

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  3. I think we get a debt ceiling lift announcement end of week/early next week, that will be our catalyst for gold/miners/indices higher. We drop until the market sniffs it out the day before/two days before.

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  4. I'm playing it safe going into the weekend, could be a massive change of direction if it happens over the weekend/after the close on Friday.

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  5. At this point it seems pretty obvious gold has already bottomed.

    The average duration of an intermediate cycle is 20 to 25 weeks. This one appears to have bottomed right in the middle of the cycle at 22 weeks.

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  6. Gary ,
    I already subscribe ( lucky99
    )but could not read your update about the link you set up the level for stops and trade triggers. Plz check. Thanks

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  7. Gary, very good plan. Let's all hope it works out.

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  8. email me your username and password and I'll check it out.

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  9. SPY BoW moving up steadily...

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  10. Funny how the chart off the Ritholtz site says gold will bottom same day as the debt ceiling cutoff. Burrito we bottom before that, especially if everyone is watching. Great way to get people to chase.

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  11. Pullback bottom I mean, intermediate is in for now.

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  12. Felix: Bought some now to partially replace my miners, but will wait a bit to add as gold is pretty stretched.

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  13. If this is the bottom in gold its a perfect lesson for controlling your emotions. I am really afraid to buy at this point.

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  14. DG - thank you, I did exactly that extrapolating and from my own concerns. Also thanks Poly for miners post.

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  15. DG,
    I'm contemplating doing the same. I'm guessing on this run, you're not touching the miners anymore?

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  16. what to buy?? watch this.


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TKMd22O0lIY

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  17. Veronica / catbird,

    re the last chart, yes the MACD trendline break seems to give a pretty reliable indication that a low is in. The 5,25,5 parameters just give a bit earlier signal than the standard MACD setting. Both come a bit late as an entry signal though, more a confirmation.

    The chart below shows the same thing but using the standard 12,26,9 MACD and you can see it has yet to cross the trendline. This is the chart I used to track gold before I stumbled across Gary's blog and the cycle tool. I've posted it here before. I've added the cycles and you can see the 3rd range took 2 intermediate cycles to complete, it looks like the current range may do the same. This is the reason I haven't been on the D wave bandwagon. The 161% fib extension is significant. Of course there's every possibility I'm way off base and the range doesn't complete, but thats trading :-)

    Gold ranges

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  18. Gary what will be the 10dma equivalent of GLD be on Gold?

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  19. "Stocks Sink on Fresh Fears About Global Economy"
    Headline on Yahoo Finance.
    I was wondering where the "stale" fears went?

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  20. Hi gary,

    Our whole reasoning behind long gold has been the 3 year low for the USD...

    now that the USD broke higher out of the triangle, doesn't this make out reasoning wrong and very risky to stay long? Or do you still believe that the 3 year low is ahead of us? is this just a head fake by the USD?

    are we still on the c-wave?

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  21. Rishi,

    It looks like the 10/20/50DMA on GLD will all line up together in 1-2 days at 148/149 area. The max option pain for GLD for Friday is also 148 at the moment.

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  22. Nike,
    I'm convinced that gold has put in an intermediate bottom. Other than an eight year cycle low that should not get violated in a bull market.

    I'm going to assume that that is correct and as such I'm going to look to be adding to my positions.

    If you aren't comfortable with that reasoning then stay in cash.

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  23. silver is not confirming this move in gold which suggests more downside to come. i am still on the sidelines for now.

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  24. Cory what I really need is what it corresponds to in terms of ounce, like $1510 or something?

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  25. Soveregn debt is only good for gold. Silver is irrelevant.

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  26. Silver is a broken parabola. I warned people not to try and go back to that candy store again.

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  27. Nike,

    Gold and miners can rally along with dollar, and as soon as this debt ceiling gets lifted (I don't think we're going to default in 11 days) that's trillions of fresh dollars for gold, along with the Euro mess. IMO, this pullback is just the waiting period for the debt ceiling agreement.

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  28. Rishi,

    If you want to see exact gold support/resistance price charts, go to Dan Norcini's blog:

    http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/

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  29. Silver just seems to be following the general markets, it's acting as if its simply a risk on/risk off.

    Sure hope your ideas pan out Gary, those would be great entry points. They also tie with John's targets at TSI Trader for anyone who hasn't read his latest piece.

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  30. Gary,

    Who mainly makes the big moves in gold day to day, these big moves up and down that occur within 15-20minutes?

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  31. Silver has a downsloping 50DMA while gold still has one going up. Silver hit that wall on Friday, gold's will be a support level.

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  32. Forget CNBC, what are the bond holders saying?

    OUCH

    You can't "fix" a $2T sovereign like Italy.
    Gold sentiment is in the dumpster while gold sits just dollars away from all time high's.
    We can fear another gold dip to the 150dma all we like, but I know come the winter, we will be gunning for $2k.

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  33. Ryan: I won;t say I won't touch them, but I'd need to get bullish on stocks. I believe the chance of another credit freeze is significant. If that happens miners go down as does the SPX. My specialty is short and IT market direction, so being long TZA today AND miners does not make sense if the market is tanking due to credit concerns. notice that even silver is getting killed today. GLD, DGP, and GLD calls is the way to go, IMO.

    There was a great experiment done where you would receive the number of dollars times 10 for every foot you stood away from the peg in a ring toss game. Some guys would stand far away and hope for the big hit (15 feet X 10 dollars) Other guys would stand closer and hit the peg on every toss. I'm a "stand close" guy. DGP at 2-to-1 is plenty for me.

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  34. Max Option Pain for Friday:

    SPY - 132
    QQQ - 57
    SLV - 35
    GLD - 148

    Might dip below those this week and finish there Friday.

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  35. Poly,

    Are you suggesting a possible pullback to the 150sma before heading higher?

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  36. Cory: Just FYI---Jason at sentimentrader did a comprehensive study of the Max Pain idea and told me he could find no predictive value in it., FWIW.

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  37. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  38. What exactly does MAX option pain mean? If those numbers are hit then the house wins???

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  39. DG,
    Thanks that's a great example! I agree 2 to 1 is plenty for me as well. I'm just in GLD now, but if we get that dip will start getting into DGP.

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  40. Don't know if this has been covered here yet today, but was there a fat finger on the SLV, did anyone see it trade down to 32.xx in real time?

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  41. TommyD: The idea is that "they" manipulate the price so that the maximum number of options expire worthless. Thus Maximum Pain for the largest number of option buyers.

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  42. Thx DG, i just always check it to get a quick gauge on which side the bets are being made close to options expiry.

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  43. I am watching 35.36 at the close on GDXJ. A close below that level negates its 1-2-3 reversal. Two legs down into a double bottom and a 1-2-3 is a good enough setup for me, so I'm happy to add today within inches of a good stop.

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  44. Willam, no not personally, I think we're on our way higher. Just saying it won't matter if we do drop back.

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  45. Cory -> Thx DG, i just always check it to get a quick gauge on which side the bets are being made close to options expiry.

    Where do you pick up this figure? Btw I'm quite new to this blog, been following a coupleof weeks. Keep up the good work.

    cheers
    Nick

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  46. Max Pain makes sense to me Cory, which is why I wrote to Jason to ask him about it. I am sometimes surprised by an indictor that makes perfect sense but doesn't really turn out to help much. A naturalist friend of mine once said "When the bird and the book disagree...believe the bird!"

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  47. Hello!

    Is anyone here trading silver/silver miners anymore? Today silver miners got a hit, but...
    Since silver at $39,50 isn't impossible (+10%) I think it's an interesting idea to trade silver miners (SLW, AG), and when silver touches $39,50 switch to gold. What do you think?

    Currently I'm about 30% in EGO, and since I don't want to trade GLD/GDX/GDXJ (which are in $ and as European, but non-Euro, I perfer sth much more sustainable like CAD) and don't know what to do. Can you give any ideas what to buy?

    Gary would you take more positions now (to be invested more than 30%) or wait for your trade tiggers?

    Thx in advance!

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  48. Gart,
    1-2-3 reversals aren't negated by a short term corrective move.

    In order to negate the move it would have to drop below $32.

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  49. Quite the disparity today between gold & silver/miners.

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  50. Gary,
    What would you think about 1/2 a position on GDX today?

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  51. I know we all have an axe but gold is even stronger than it looks - being supported 5th day in a row intra-day in US timezone around previous day's highest volume zone / point of control -- commitment.

    GDX, coming off its biggest oversold relative to gold since early 2009 bear market, needs to move +20% rel to gold to get back to an average rel level.

    Commodities overall not convinced of this DX strength/Euro weakness.

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  52. Bingo! Got the fill on NUGT. Buying because on John Doody's fundamental work, gold stocks have only been this cheap two other times in the last eight years, and each time they gained over 100%. Also, fractal analysis of the S&P shows this move to 1320 is just consolidation. Uptrend should start in next seven trading days.

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  53. Gary,
    In my trading plan, 1-2-3 reversals should not close below the intraday high of the move that breaks the downtrend line. When that happens, I sell whatever portion of my position was acquired above the pivot. It's just a convenient low-risk stop for adding to a winning position - it won't take me out entirely.

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  54. ND/Nick-

    Here is a link to a max pain calculator:

    http://www.optionpain.com/OptionPain/Option-Pain.php

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  55. abc,

    I still trade silver/silver miners. Some are a part of the major miner ETFs, so they will be pulled up as well. I don't think silver will reach/break to new highs, but miners will do well for this cycle. Here is what I am holding/will add to:

    IPT.V
    WS.V
    SQI.V
    EXK
    GPL
    SVM
    MVG
    AXU
    AUNFF
    SPM.TO
    FVITF
    AG
    KAM.V
    AGQ.V
    LYD.TO

    Not for everyone. Just my own little ETF.

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  56. I wonder how this guy did on his SLV option trade?

    Currently at $0.01 peaked at about $0.40 ish

    Still > 50000 contacts OI

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-11/silver-etf-options-trader-bets-1-million-on-37-slide-by-july.html

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  57. SPY Bow on track to close at day's high. They're fighting hard to push this rotting pig carcas back up the hill...

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  58. A lot of fund managers that missed the train trying to get back on.

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  59. MM,
    This is the GDX setup I'm looking for.


    http://www.flickr.com/photos/64616497@N02/5927000031/in/photostream/lightbox/

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  60. Cory,

    No Minco Gold in that little ETF of yours?

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  61. Wav_Ridah,
    Thanks for that, I took a half postition anyway... just in case.

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  62. Cory

    Can't you do the same by buying SIL and avoid company specific risk?

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  63. Beaner is turning his computer monitor upside down.

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  64. Beaner is proving to be an excellent indicator.

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  65. Cory,
    Big thanks for sharing.
    BTW, impressive portfolio:)

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  66. SF,

    I just like buying above 50/200DMA on the miners, MISVF is on my watch list and a good chart otherwise. A lot of the names are from the ETFs, I just do my own selecting on the charts I like and spread out risk the way they do by position sizing.

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  67. Cory

    Just seems like hit and miss. As u know there can be a few home runs and many base hits. I did the miner early in the year and did great on a few but others were dogs. GPL comes to mind

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  68. No position higher than 7% of portfolio, weighted mainly by market cap/liquidity. If you lose 25% on a 5% position due to something like the Bear Creek shutdown (BCM.V), you're down 1.25%. There is a lot of upside if all the miners are rising though.

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  69. SLV hanging man candle from Friday was confirmed today. I'm expecting a move by SLV down to the top of the gap around 34.....

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  70. Day count 6 for gold and what less than $20 for all time highs.

    Again, for the 5th straight day gold is closing right up at the high of the day, that is not it's normal behavior of past IT cycles. This in the face of a rallying dollar. This time it's different.

    Gold is going absolutely ballistic this summer and fall.

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  71. thank you Gary

    will wait for gold to tag the 10

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  72. Bek: I am out of EUO. Sold too early at 17.17, unfortunately, but the dollar picture has been muddy to me. Happy to ride DGP to glory though! (I don't care what I make money in. I do suspect I will be back in EUO before the euro collapses, though)

    Covered my AGO short BTW

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  73. the USD (UUP) also broke the down trendline from May last year..this has the bullish for the USD

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  74. Stating the obvious here, but gold is acting really well and closed above the downtrend line from the May high.

    Not much resistance up above here and we're only day 6 of the new cycle. I bought the dip this morning as my position was a little light. Will add more if we can touch the 10-day MA.

    2011-07-11 Daily Gold Chart

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  75. Gary
    Do you think miners are dropping a little here ahead of the half daily cycle low for Gold?

    I kind of panicked out of my positions today when I saw the dollar rally hard and Gold drop 10 dollars from the highs today.

    Really hope we get another down day so I can jump back in. I have never been this nervous before taking a position.

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  76. 20 days of rallying gold is what I see, IMO! I give it good odds you don't see a touch of that elusive 10dma this entire daily cycle. I got more of my gold today, I'm loaded and I'm risking some of my juicy gains from past IT cycles to really goose my gains if we picked the IT cycle low.

    Once they push through a last minute deficit cap increase at the end of the month, we should spend a week or so finding our daily cycle low. Of course well into new all time high's.

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  77. Is ugl the right vehicle to use for gold 2x ?

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  78. JEFFtheFLEA, dgp is better, much greater volume

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  79. BTW, sold my TZA in the after hours mkt at 33.58. After the huge levels of fear in late June it is hard for me to be bearish yet.

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  80. Gary,

    With regards to the dollar, we all know it's not rallying out of a 3yr low. The Euro is plunging and the Dollar index is a flawed measure of the Dollar's strength. It's a decent measure when the dollar is responding positively/negatively against the basket, but when measured against one plunging (56%) currency, it does not make it strong.

    This is the reason you find gold rallying despite what that "Dollar Flawed Index" tells us.

    Look:

    YEN-Fail

    Swiss-Fail

    Canadian

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  81. Poly, good insight re the dollar. Another one that should be in your list is the yuan, but of course, it is pegged so there's no real chart. My guess is that if nature was allowed to run her course, you would be listing another FAIL...

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  82. If the economy is starting to roll over into recession than the dollar is beginning to rally because the forces of deflation are winning.

    The forces of deflation are stronger in Europe which is causing the euro to sink quicker than the dollar.

    I believe the global economy is rolling over into recession.

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  83. I think the Trade Weighted Dollar Index is a bit better than DXY. The Euro percentage is far smaller than 56%...

    From the Fed:

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TWEXB

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  84. Gary, if the stock market rolls over..won't that likely take the miners with it? Perhaps its safer just to be in the metal and not equities at this point?

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  85. http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/07/gold-cycle-perodicity-and-bollinger-bands/

    another cycle guy....

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  86. The miners are terribly undervalued right now. I like to buy things that are deeply discounted.

    Not to mention that other than a couple of very short days where the HUI dipped below 500 the mining index has held the upper consolidation zone very nicely.

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  87. Can somebody please explain to me how in the hell gold could bottom significantly above the 200 day moving average and how it has rallied 5 days in a row if it's being manipulated by the J.P. Morgan cartel?

    With unlimited funds from the Fed to short the hell out of it there's no way gold can rally like this. ;~)

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  88. Poly, good point. I've been watching the USDCHF as my proxy for dollar strength.

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  89. DG,


    I sold EUO too early as well (day Gary's call to buy gold- i shifted out of it to gold and miners).

    Been amazed that gold has been holding up even with dollar rallying etc.

    Yes, do let us know when you get back into EUO

    thanks

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  90. Gary,

    Real quick - what indicators did you use to determine that stocks are currently oversold?

    Thanks.

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  91. DG,

    Re: Option max pain levels

    Did sentimentrader do a option max pain analysis on gold/silver options or just an overall study on all markets?

    thanks -

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  92. It's a combination of short term indicators.

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  93. Poly,

    Just to add to your point that the DXY is a flawed index.

    The broad dollar index is at a 16-year low.

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  94. gold is going like it's on juice...what a run :)

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  95. Return: Just overall stock market stuff---not specifically gold/silver, but if it didn't work overall I can;t see why it would work exclusively for gold/silver related stuff.

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  96. Beksachi: I will post when I get excited about EUO again, but if DGP does what I think it will maybe it won't matter if I miss it. Gold is about the only thing I can imagine going all in on and not worrying about.

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  97. DG,

    Did you buy DGP today or you waiting, I think you mentioned earlier that you thought gold was stretched and you were going to wait right?

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  98. Gary, I would have to say if gold is being manipulated, it's being manipulated UP in a controlled manner.The bogeyman for the PTB is deflation, and you can't have the ultimate barometer of inflation/deflation going down, can you?

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  99. William: I bought a little more at 49.41 Monday. It's often hard for me to say ahead of time. I know I will but more on a dip, but if it is acting well I may add at any time as I did today. I will very likely buy a bunch if it should tag the 10DMA this week. Remember, even if you mistime the purchase slightly the bull will bail you out. Don;t worry too much about going in the hole right away. Don;t buy a ton and just sit if it goes against you a bit.

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  100. Gary, this article suggests that you are correct about the Fed having printed money, which caused the end of june rally.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/biggest-fed-money-pump-lehman-went-under

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  101. the dollar bounced of 76.37 (4 cents from making this a RT cycle)

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  102. I would welcome comments from wiser folk on whether this article is a credible reason for the recent surge rally in the stock market: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/biggest-fed-money-pump-lehman-went-under

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  103. A manufactured rally and a manufactured correction. I smell hedge fund managers...

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  104. Gary,
    If cycles don't work out the way you foresaw them, I don't know how good it is to blame it on a 'manufactured' rally. For example, two months ago you forecasted that silver might hit $21,which surprised me, and only a few days ago you said that this forecast might just go out the window. Most gold bugs called the silver bottom at $30+. As you point out, you don't believe that the price of silver and gold is being manipulated, yet they don't seem to follow the cycle either this time.

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  105. Bennie where are you?

    Oh yea, I forgot the market was down triple digits.

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  106. I havent posted here as often as I used to , since I have been trading the regular markets as well as Miners and this is mostly a Precious metals blog.

    I have received some emails asking what I have been thinking lately, and have I given up miners, etc...so I thought I would just post an answer here .

    My opinion is that MINERS bottomed in June, and I started trading those bottoms , Gold Bottomed JULY 1st...

    So the pullback on Miners is expected , they lead the way up , and will lead down 1st. ( So I think Gold will follow). Is THE BOTTOM in?? most likely, but obviously keeping an eye on things.

    1) Miners Bottomed mid June - Gold Was bottomed 1st days of JULY -so ( using my 3 strongest SILVERS ...everyone hates silvers now :) see AG, EXK, GPL...I will use charts from here.

    These charts will show some indicators that told me a Bottom was likely forming in June, a pullback now is normal ( is it short term bottom? long term? I'll just Keep watching for now.)

    Hope this helps :)

    Chart 1...GOLD BOTTOMS IN JULY-

    http://www.screencast.com/t/yTYwEGOef1

    Chart 2..."AG"

    http://www.screencast.com/t/NkbOR6Uhz31

    3) = "EXK"

    http://www.screencast.com/t/vB6zJT32Dm

    4) ="GPL"

    http://www.screencast.com/t/k25GUqWZOuX

    From these charts, at least notice that MINERS bottomed in MID JUNE, Gold more recently.
    A pullback in miners was expected BEFORE a pullback in Gold.

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  107. Awesome charts Alex...thank you for posting :)

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  108. the euro is sinking into the toilet

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  109. Basil,
    Gold bottomed right in the middle of its intermediate timing band. The daily cycle was four days short. Four days isn't all that unusual.

    So I'm really not sure what you mean by the cycles aren't working.

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  110. Basil, don't you understand that this is a game of probabilities.

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  111. The reason I was looking for silver at $21 is because I've never seen a parabola that didn't eventually retrace virtually all of the parabolic move.

    That is still a very real possibility if silver continues to underperform and then when gold moves down into its next intermediate decline, especially if that intermediate decline is a violent D-wave, the parabolic collapse in silver could and probably will continue.

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  112. ALEX, Great charts! Thank you for posting. I have missed your knowledge :)

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  113. Hi Gary:
    Now that the $$$ has formed a RT intermediate cycle, I guess the odds favor:

    An A-wave move in Gold versus a parabolic final C-wave.

    However, is the D-wave scenario still a low probability event? Or are the A-wave and D-wave scenarios equally likely at this juncture with the C-wave a very low probability?

    I guess if stops are hit, we know we are in D-wave land, correct?

    Thanks!

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  114. Gary: One more question:

    Looking @ the $DXY chart in TOS @ this moment, and if it holds into close today, are we on our way to a 1-2b pattern of a 1-2b-3 pattern?

    And if so, does 1-2b take precedence over the $$$ RT intermediate cyle?

    Thanks!

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  115. No that's not a 2b reversal in the strict definition of the term.

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  116. Jim R. said silver will be much higher 10 years from now

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  117. Jim R. said he never seen someone getting rich from TA.

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  118. Poly,
    Would you jump in here or wait for a pullback? I got scared out yesterday? Thanks

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  119. I expect 10 years from now the bull market will be over. Although that could still mean silver above $35.

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  120. Haggerty,
    If your emotions prevented you from riding the bull during the last run also you might want to consider doing something different this time.

    Instead of watching the day-to-day wiggles maybe switch your charts to weekly.

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  121. :::gasp::: $USD daily candles showing up on StockCharts

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  122. So far PM stocks up slightly despite metals being down. Let's see if this holds up.

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  123. It looks to me if the SPY closes below 126 or so, it's game over.


    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=W&yr=7&mn=7&dy=7&id=p81042204655&listNum=1&a=165040115

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  124. Gold has been bouncing (from beneath) on this 1552-1559 area 3-4 times. There are two downtrend lines in this zone (one from daily time frame last 2-3 months, one from intraday last 24hrs or so). And of course the previous high at 1559.3

    This was my last zone to wait for a pullback. Bouncing this many times with looks of going higher makes me think it won't pullback like we all want. Maybe this is a classic buying capitulation mistake on my part, but I think this is worth a buying attempt here anticipating a continuation up.

    I'm 3x on gold futures now with a small stop on low an hr ago. If we DO break higher then I will likely add and move up the stop to below wherever we start shooting from.

    If my buy here is just a misplaced chase at the top then I'll lose about 1% net worth.

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  125. TZ, agreed. I took a little nibble here this am as well.

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  126. This is my first buy since silver action (although I tried to short the S&P and lost like everybody else. I seem to remember somebody saying never to short :-)

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  127. It's only day two of the second week of a brand-new intermediate cycle so yes I would say we are definitely in a buy zone.

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  128. Is the dollar running out of gas? That's quite a fall from the overnight highs.

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  129. Gary,

    How do you get around the technical requirement to mark May 5th as the Gold IT low? It's the lowest point after the high point of the IT cycle.


    I personally do not see any supporting TA indicators for May 5th, while so much lines up well for July being the low. We're also not going to get a neat $80 drop from here to form fresh new IT lows.

    Thanks.

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  130. Mr Miyagy,

    Thank you for the options lesson link. Very interesting.

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  131. May wasn't in the timing band for the intermediate low, June was.

    Sometimes these sideways or triangle consolidations will mess with our nice neat chart patterns.

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  132. Poly,

    The May 5th low was in all reality just a regression to the mean on a weekly chart, the 10sma.

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  133. 1 1/2 hour into trading and SPY is number 1 on the SOS chart. We will see at the end of the day.

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  134. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  135. Gary: Could you discuss gold sentiment right now, and in comparison to other intermediate cycle bottoms? Thanks.

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  136. Increased to 4x; bumped stop up some to maintain 1% stop loss

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  137. Update to SPX Daily Chart :

    http://screencast.com/t/ScMigVu79g9u

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  138. At the bottom sentiment had reached to your lows on gold.

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  139. Poly,

    I agree, but what threw this cycle off is the fact that we didnt bottom on the 150sma.

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  140. SF Giants Fan

    Also saw this a moment ago, but atm it isn't even listed??

    http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mflppg-moneyflow.html?mod=topnav_2_3000

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  141. It's because the market keeps drifting in and out of positive territory. You can have selling on strength if SPY is negative.

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  142. Gary,

    but seeing money flowing out when in positive territory a moment ago still gives a hint that money is flowing out?

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  143. Billy, looks like a retest of the upper pennant line on the DX contract.

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  144. Gary,

    Were past D-waves spawned right from Intermediate cycle declines?

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  145. Gold continues to creep higher this morning in disbelief of those (including me only hours ago) that it would stop and pullback at these resistance points.

    There has been little to no volume on any action so far today. We are still awaiting a recognition surge when people realize it isn't going down (which is my bet right now for better or worse).

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  146. TZ,

    We might be looking at a 2-4 day pause to let the short MA's catch up, form a half daily cycle low and bull flag, then rocket to new high's and test $1,600 before moving into a daily cycle low.

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  147. Biggest upvolumes since the IT bottom on GLD were into close y'day.
    Commodities still not fussed about USD overall. Potential for gold to move very hard to the upside if USD weakens here.

    A couple of you gents like TZ, Cory (?) going 4x leveraged and that's some real institutional SIZE right here on SMT. :-)

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  148. POLY,

    I'm chasing and I know it. Usually that doesn't work well. It just feels right and the patterns make me think gold wants to break higher.

    The way I look at it is that it's worth a 1% bet.

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  149. I'll put it this way...I (like gary and everybody else) already had plans to buy if gold pulled back.

    But of course the market rarely does what a person wants and you always have to ask "what if I'm wrong".

    Well...if I'm wrong I'm all cash (earlier this morn) and didn't have a plan. Based on the down sloping channel of last 24hrs and the multiple hits against the resistance here (and also the triangle in last 2 hours) I'm willing to buy with some risk to cover the "if it doesn't pull back" scenario.

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  150. Anybody got a link to where one can see institutional buying vs selling? ie what commercials are up to regarding sp500 ?

    Am in a short pos since a while ago, but may be wanting to exit, too much uncertainty, still belive it should be down, but not sure if "they" are gonna let it fall.

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  151. Another way to put it is that I have to be wrong quite a number of times at 1% loss before serious damage is done. But I only have to be right once.

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  152. GARY

    Hope this question is understandable:

    the deeper we go into this bull market , and obviously the climb gets much steeper and is going to have to be a greater incline , will cycles remain in tact 'time wise' , but LOOK different?
    For ex: will it mean the I.T. low wont break a trendline at the bottom , or say for example we were expecting it to dip to a common moving average (150 as william said) ... maybe it misses that avg as the climb gets steeper?

    I'm asking, As it becomes closer to the ultimate straight up parabola...will some details like this differ, while counts and timing remains the same?

    Did the OIL spike answer this question?

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  153. TZ,

    I don't think you're chasing, I'm just pointing out a possible "pause point", it's been a nice run up already. I'm actually already far more invested at this point than i have been in past early IT cycles.

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  154. What does gold need to hit to make a new high?

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  155. Alex,

    You see that in the previous C-waves, they levitate off the averages pretty much straight through from beginning to end. This C-wave seemed to form its own pattern and obey the moving averages, up until this intermediate cycle.

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  156. This was an interesting article on leverage from gold miners being less useful these days:
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/278999-choosing-gold-over-gold-stocks

    Decided to dump my ABX when I saw how undervalued my speculative coal play, Prophecy Coal CVE:PCY had become and went with that.

    I guess DGP will be the gold play of choice for my small capital if there should be any pullback close to my paydays...

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  157. Alex,
    I'll answer your question after the bull market is over :)

    What happened with this particular intermediate cycle isn't all that unusual. We saw something similar play out as the T-1 pattern consolidated in 06.

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  158. William,

    I did notice that too. Before I heard of Gary last August, I used to always wait for Gold to pull back , on a weekly chart , to the 34sma.

    I would play the miners sooner, so I would have been trading the miners like i have since June.

    But if I were waiting for GOLD, I would still be waiting.Click on chart to enlarge

    http://www.screencast.com/t/fijus36L7Pbb

    AND TRADERLADY

    Thank you for your comment above - You ALWAYS have something nice to say , cant beat that!

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  159. This may sound crazy....but if you take a look at a gold weekly chart, this pattern that we see since the May low looks exactly the same as it did off the lows before the last D-wave.

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  160. Haggerty, the 5/1 high on the Aug gold contract was 1577.7. We got to 1559.3 on 6/22 before the int decline began. I think the latter number is the one to watch for this week. The corresponding levels in GLD are 153.61 and 151.86, respectively.

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  161. Gary

    sooooo , nightly report, March 2015??
    I may be living on an Island by then...hope they have internet :)

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  162. basil, cycles deviate or are inherently deviant because all of the analysis is based on regression to means or averages. On average, cycles are never correct, or they are seldom very precise. Cycles are especially suspect in terms of time frames or setting deadlines, or drop-dead-dates. In other words, what do you do after the world did not end when the cycle said it should?

    Fortunately however, eventually all of the mediocre results average up to hit the nail on the head sooner or later or at least every once in a while. This could be good for a couple of grand-slam, gold-swan events. On the flip side we hope to avoid too many old- fashioned, kick-in-the- teeth, black-swan event(s).

    In other words, ok the D-wave did not happen AGAIN when it was supposed to AGAIN. We are supposedly still in the same C-wave that has had us sitting on pins and needles for the last 7 months or so just because the lines on the paper say the gig is up on some perma-cycle.

    So, this leaves us just speculating. The trading or trader is key. Trading the markets is always deviant, so maybe the cycles really help the trader sometimes. The trader has to be good enough at just trading in the first place to keep up the cycles charade.

    So instead of cycles and sentiment, think of it as just trading, etc. For those of us that cannot trade successfully, anything that works is a present and gratefully appreciated. Singles, doubles triples, etc. We get impatient with foul balls, etc.

    60% trading skills

    30% cycles analysis/range trading/candlesticks, TA, etc., etc.

    10% sentiment--The sentiment really works, it is truly reliable, but it is a bit of a one trick pony. Bearish or bullish extremes occur outside of any TA-type measures.

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  163. Or it looks very much like the midpoint consolidation in 06 and 07 before the final parabolic C-wave thrust.

    This is why I will don't base my trading decisions off of technical chart patterns. You are much more likely to get it right if you concentrate on cycles and sentiment first and then use technicals for entry points.

    Sure you will miss every once in a while. The fake out in 09 is an example. But those same tools allowed me to call the last three bottoms within a day or two of the final low.

    3 out of 4 is good enough for me.

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  164. Gary, would you consider changing your trade triggers if gold fails to crack $1560 again?

    If 7/1 was in fact the intermediate bottom, what is the significance of gold halting well short of the 150 DMA?

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  165. Gary,

    I hear you, but I have to disagree...looking at a weekly the mid point consolditions of 06-07 dont look like the same patterns as what I am looking at right now. If we push higher than the 1559.30 high then this will change, but as of now the patterns are almost exact.

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  166. Harry,

    Im asking myself that question also.

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  167. Harry,
    If that happens then our stops will take us out for a small loss.

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  168. Gold stopping short of 1560 is just a technicality, it shall fall.

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  169. William,
    Are you under the impression that it is 2009 right now instead of 2011?

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  170. The high of 956.20 was basically the high to be broken at around the same point in this pattern (1560 high) in the beginning of the last D-wave, that high was broken weeks later and then the hard drop.
    So if this pattern plays out the same, we will break 1560 but not 1577 high before entering the D-wave.

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  171. Dont get me wrong, im not saying we are entering a D-wave, im just telling you what I see on the weekly.

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  172. Gary,

    If I did happen to be right, you owe me 3 burritos and I want you to scale a cliff with me on your back while im eating them...ok?

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  173. William,
    That was not a D-wave in 09. That was just an intermediate degree correction.

    ReplyDelete

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