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Wednesday, July 13, 2011

PORTFOLIO CHANGE

A portfolio change as been added to the website.

946 comments:

  1. Gary,

    What does that make your final allocations?

    Thanks

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  2. Can't believe I'm really buying all the way up here in the stratosphere, but I guess that's why cycle theory rocks so hard.

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  3. I guess I have buyer's remorse already, Gary, but shouldn't we wait for a breakout from this resistance level?

    You know what I'm just going to turn off my fucking computer and go eat something. Maybe drink something.

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  4. S.B. and AARON

    Silver may be a risk as a broken parabola, no doubt...but I believe that it has based and will double top or even could make new highs.

    I may be wrong,and MANY parabolas never recover as Gary said... but I base it on other parabolas that I have seen...and they based in 2 months ( it's all about supply/demand...people wanted them)

    I think Silver will return to favor and shorts will be trapped.

    ex: $2+ to $10+ = 400% in 4 months, then drops to $6 IN ONE DAY

    http://www.screencast.com/t/nEu3yS0CO

    New highs

    http://www.screencast.com/t/rLyWt8szrzEX

    I own EXK, AG, and SVM currently

    no recommendation..trade at your own risk levels :)

    P.S. Gary is playing it smarter , less risk with Gold . I am in front of a P.C. all day and have willing to risk a cavity in the candy store :)

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  5. Harry,
    It seems like you are trying to time a perfect entry into a bull market without ever having to suffer a draw down.

    The only time that is possible is at an intermediate bottom. I got us in at that bottom. If you didn't take that entry then don't expect to be able to enter without a draw down.

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  6. Thank you ALEX! I have positions and looking to add. I did start EXK and AG at the open and shall maybe add at mid day:)

    Happy Trading:)

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  7. Alex
    No need for disclaimers. We are all adults here.

    Thx for all the great charts!!!

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  8. If gold is manipulated by an evil cartel that pushes prices down, then how can it be so overbought (looking at macd) on the weekly charts? It's been overbought for 2 years.. Crazy

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  9. Alex,

    I agree on silver. Not at all concerned about the broken parabola at this stage of the bull. One day, yes, but not now.

    We own the same names, except I've got PHYS too. :)

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  10. Benjamin,
    I too have to wonder how anyone can look at a 10 year chart of gold and even contemplate the possibility of manipulation.

    It's just absurd.

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  11. Gary, I bought a contract back at $1527 and a second at $1553 so I'm certainly able to withstand a drawdown from here. I'm just a bit more nervous about holding three all the way up here at the all-time highs. Really the smartest thing to do is to just walk away and come back at the next daily cycle low to buy a fourth.

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  12. The problem was silver is that you still have a ton of trapped longs that are going to want to get out.

    Just a normal daily cycle correction in gold could smash silver right back down into the consolidation zone.

    Silver is a has been. I don't invest in has-beens. That's why I haven't touched oil for the last three years.

    Once silver has had a chance to consolidate for one to three years then I will be interested in silver again.

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  13. Funny, I wonder how anyone can look at a 10 year chart of gold and NOT even contemplate the possibility of manipulation.

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  14. lol...calling silver a "had been" is rather extreme, considering it's a PM along with gold and even if it does not outperform is likely to head the same direction.

    Also, we talk silver but are invested in silver miners. Sure they're correlated, but nothing has outpaced the silver miners off the recent bottom.

    I'm not arguing one as better than the other, just that pretending silver and gold will go in opposite directions is ludicrous.

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  15. Seriously? This looks like a manipulated market to you?

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  16. I'm also not buying anything today. I suspect those that want to will have better opportunity if they are patient.

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  17. I don't pretend to believe that silver and gold will go in opposite directions. But I do know there is great risk for 2006 type events in a broken parabola.

    Gold could enter a normal $50 daily cycle correction. And at the same time nervous silver longs could panic and send silver from $40 to 32 again in the blink of an eye.

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  18. The reason everything is surging is because, as predicted, the Chairsatan appears to have just ushered in QE3: "The possibility remains that the recent economic weakness may prove more persistent than expected and that deflationary risks might reemerge, implying a need for additional policy support. The Federal Reserve remains prepared to respond should economic developments indicate that an adjustment of monetary policy would be appropriate."

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  19. We were approaching old highs yesterday and some spoke of "...resistance and a possible pullback, so why not sell."

    To give you am example of how powerful a move this could be ( if you think of selling or even waiting for a pullback to buy )

    This could happen with gold...the patterns are similar--as it approached previous highs

    http://www.screencast.com/t/Yu0T183W

    3 months later, same stock

    http://www.screencast.com/t/iuTtxj3B9

    Bottom is confirmed and Gold can be WAY stronger than this stock was

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  21. Gary, in the futures market (the one that actually dictates SLV), no trapped long could have held from 49 down to 33, the account got wiped out a long time ago... so the idea that there are trapped longs waiting to get out, is a moot point.

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  22. Or one could be happily trapped in their physical like I was for the decline. Never once thought of selling, but did do some buying. :)

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  23. Also, silver has no one interested, specially with the ridiculous margin requirements (no small investor can even afford to play it), and the COT reports painting a rather bullish picture, not seen in a long time.
    PS. The parabola did break, but the break was not natural (forced/manipulated)

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  24. Gary, you should have a love advice blog/show where you can say things like, "You're trying to time a perfect entry into a relationship and it's just not going to happen."

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  25. I'd usually like to do some selling into this type of move, but I think Alex might be correct about the strength we could see.

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  26. Dollar up, metals up. Dollar down, metals really fly. One has to like those odds. :)

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  27. Aaron,

    Not everyone in the futures markets trades with leverage.

    There are lots and lots of trapped longs waiting to sell silver. Just take a look at Wheat´s parabola last year and see how markets react after it is broken.

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  28. My biggest concern is we're getting giddy around here, myself included. I'm going to have to turn of the 'puter if I want to ride this properly.

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  29. gary, how can silver be a has been type of investment . its just short of 5% up today as im typing this

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  30. Gary,Gold is going really with a very fast speed.I think if we have another 20 weeks like this it would go over 2000.Is there a way top of the C wave to happen in less than 10 weeks period from now and have a left translated cycle?

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  31. I'm off to the mountains. Talk amongst yourselves today.

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  32. Great, already talk of $2000 gold at SMT. How easily people forget.

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  33. Me thinks there are some silver shorts getting carted off on a stretcher....

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  34. David, there are two main reasons you trade futures. mostly, its leverage, and then to a lesser extent, tax benefits. The majority of futures accounts use leverage, and when margins are tripled in a month, it kills speculation. The COTs show that too. There simply very little speculation remaining in the silver market, nothing compared to what we had in April for instance.

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  35. i see your logic in the broken parabola, but silver is such a thinly traded market that i see the weighting to this theory is reduced or at least tempered as precious metals investing becomes more prominent to the general public.

    if your average chinaman buys a couple kilos of physical silver because of the macro picture, and this happens the world over, then surely physical demand underpins the the paper price?

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  36. I have 120 silver dollar pieces I got for around $25 each. I think I am just going to hold-on to them as the least they could fetch would be $1...

    Holding the physical silver, however little, I can sleep at night and just know I have it. If it was in my stock portfolio I would not sleep that well, FWIW.

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  37. Aaron,

    The greatest benefit of trading futures is not leverage, but margin.

    If you have 1 million dollars, you can buy 1 million dollars worth of gold and at the same time buy 1 million dollars worth of S&P. You are not leveraged in any single instrument, although your account as a whole is leveraged.

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  38. about time the HUI going somewhere..

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  39. Rhode Island, it's neither a road or an island. Talk amungsts yahselvs :)

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  40. Good grief, one week Bernanke says additional stimulus would help little. The next week he says they are preparing more. Obviously he intends to create confusion.

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  41. > Seriously? This looks like a manipulated
    > market to you?

    Under the circumstances of a giant ponzi scheme being built up over that particular period in housing, Treasuries, dollar, euro etc (and even inflation, if one can ponzi that): yes indeed it does. Considering all that, gold should have risen MUCH faster and MUCH higher.

    There is no law that says rigging markets can only exist in the form of propping things up. It can just as well be applied to keeping things down.

    My turned-around remark implied the gold chart doesn't proof anything and I just meant to show that making the exact opposite point is just as valid. "Even contemplate the possibility of " is a phrase that essentially has no bearing, neither your way nor mine - but it sure sounds mighty convincing.

    One can (and in this particular case I'd suggest one should) always 'contemplate the possibility of'.

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  42. Anyone else concerened we will wake up one of these days to a massive gap down? Am fully invested here but am also concerned that this rate of increase is not sustainable and often ends with massive gap downs.

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  43. I'm leaving for the day...some great potential in these miners charts.

    Even baby rockets like AAU are up 10%.

    Very nice.

    slap me for saying this , but GSS looks like it has potential too.

    Good day all!

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  44. All The Bernank knows to do is print. His academic career is based on printing to get out of the depression. If it's a deep recession bordering on depression, he'll "run home to mama" and print. He is as dovish as it gets. It is FAR more politically undesirable to tighten than to print.

    Bob and weave, bob and weave...
    If you act like you don't know what you are doing, then people will think you don't know what you are doing :) I think he thinks he knows what he's doing.

    "How could there NOT be a QE3?" - Dave Rosenberg

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  45. Dan

    To add a little comfort...there will be days up, and pullbacks, but more like 4 days up, 2 back 5 days up, 3 back...

    If you look at GLD for example, on a 6 month chart. It ran FEB to MAY , then sideways consolidation...so this move is a continuation and can run as it did Feb to May , only if it goes parabolic at the end...add a couple months and a steeper incline at the end.

    We are JUST breaking free from the consolidation...plenty of room to run.

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  46. I'll weight in here regarding silver.
    Silver will most definitely follow gold up ... however ... it's not the upside that's in question, it's the downside.
    You all are very familiar how we got caught last time. Unless you trade 24 hours a day and are willing to watch the charts like a cat on a mouse you will most likely get caught again.
    Personally I cannot trade futures so I'm limited to trading hours and therefore I'll stick to gold this time.

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  47. david, in the case, margin is leverage, and vice versa.

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  48. This is a continuation IT cycle and it projects to a "minimum" of $1,774 by Nov.

    The rest is noise, fear and emotions. Trade the IT cycle and enjoy the summer.

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  49. TommyD .. you should trade them in for maples ... at least the Canadian versions have a $5 face value ... and it's Canadian Dollars FWIW.

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  50. SILVER

    Eric Sprott, James Dines, James Turk are convinced gold:silver ratio hits 16 to 1.

    Pick your gold target: $2,500 - $5000 and apply the ratio of 16:1.

    Silver will be well into the 100's before this is over by Gary's 2016/2017 date. Maybe short/intermediate term silver goes sideways, and I am glad it does as I am a buyer of physical silver.

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  51. If anyone does not think that the shorts are getting clobbered, remember that ZSL made a low of $12.83 when AGQ was $382.08....SO if per chance AGQ was to get back to $382 then ZSL would go to about $7.00. Amazing how people get robbed these days...NO, I do not think that AGQ will re-visit $382 anytime soon...just exposing the sink hole

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  53. Can someone explain how GDX tends to move during a IT cycle? It appears much more volatile and susceptible to pullbacks. Looking at a long term chart it seems to follow the general markets much more.

    Would you expect it to match GLD?

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  55. gdx rsi shows overbought..anybody takes little profit here?

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  56. How come all of you invest in etf's rather than than the spot or futures market??

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  57. The junior miners are surpassing the majors today. Risk on again. SLW in the 40's would be a good sign.

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  58. If you have a nice slug of long call options in anything gold, then you are about 15-50% (or more) more heavily invested in terms of your overall gold exposure today compared to yesterday because of rising option delta and rising share prices.

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  59. Michael, it's a wonderful thing.

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  60. alright...mid-day pullback

    time to add

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  61. ND - good question.

    "How come all of you invest in etf's rather than than the spot or futures market??"

    As for me, I am more comfortable with call options, since not subject to margin calls, which are quite probable with PM's volatility , IMHO.

    Am I right?

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  62. Poly,
    Been enjoying your commentary regarding options and have learned quite a bit. The item I have been trying to develop in my own mind is at what point do you like to take gains? I'm sure you have goals for each of your option plays, so this is a loaded question maybe. For example, I'm sitting with 3 GLD Sep 17's at 147 at an average of 4.71 and see nearly 100 percent gains since I purchased but now Gold has much more room to run. Do you take these types of gains and run to different plays or just let it ride for awhile? My fear is that if GLD is 165-170 in late August the ability to unload these so deep in the money will be much tougher with less open interest. Any thoughts here? I appreciate your posts a great deal in this area. Take care.

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  63. One thing that doesn't make sense to me about this "conspiracy" to keep the price of gold down - if they are always suppressing the price, when do they take profits?

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  64. Don't take gains. Read Old Turkey. I put 2 million + in AGQ in 2009 and Gary kept me in until late April.

    40 ---> 320 Never took gains.

    Surprises to the upside in a bull.

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  65. I unloaded 7000 DITM SLV puts 2 days ago. Just go .5-.1 over the ask, the algos will hit them for you.

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  66. GLD is above upper Keltner bound.

    Looking at the history, probability is on the side of pulling back to 20 EDMA or 50 SDMA, maybe tomorrow.

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  67. Cory,

    What are your main holdings for this run? Again in agq or have you switched over to something else?

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  68. Cory,
    if you're talking to me I understand your perspective...and congrats on the huge AGQ play and substantial gain! From an option perspective, I know things change because of time and was trying to get wind of how people get to selling strategies in this area. Trying to develop my own ideas here but I'm either to early or late! Want to develop a quality method for selling in options, that's all. Been disappointed in some mistakes I have made in the past.

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  69. " Cory said...
    Don't take gains. Read Old Turkey. I put 2 million + in AGQ in 2009 and Gary kept me in until late April.

    40 ---> 320 Never took gains."

    good jobs!!

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  70. Cory --

    "...Just go .5-.1 over the ask, the algos will hit them for you..."

    Would you please elaborate on that? Especially, what 0.5-0.1 mean?

    Congratulations with big gains, by the way.

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  71. Royboy,

    I don't mind sharing.
    I do not take any gains within a daily cycle (like right here) as I refuse to lose my position. I will (attempt) to take profits on 25-50% of my position on a big spike if it occurs within the timing band for a daily cycle low.
    After a pullback I will reload as close to the DCL as possible, but I do not get greedy. This let's you sell when volatility (higher premiums) and get back in at lower prices and premiums.
    The rest of the positions will ride (and roll) from Week 1 to Week 12-15 of the entire IT cycle.

    Good luck.

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  72. Congrats Cory, that's some impressive trade.

    I'm sure Obama will send you a personal thank you :)

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  73. DP,

    So a 10 would put us back to July 1, $1480? That would hurt.

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  74. Poly,
    I appreciate the insight into your strategy...it helps a great deal. So, if I am getting you straight, if you had SLV calls today (hypothetically speaking) you would attempt to sell a 1/4 to a 1/2 of your position because of this spike (these are assumptions with SLV up 5% currently). Does that constitute a large spike for you? Does a move above 1.5-2 percent in the GLD meet your criteria? Or am I wrong in looking at the ETF's base price and should I just be looking at the price of the option when considering this? If so, what would be a spike in your mind in the option? 30 percent? 50 percent? I feel like I'm rambling here, so excuse me. Again thanks, and please don't feel bad about not divulging any things you want to keep close to the vest.

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  75. Just bought some EUO at 17.48

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  76. I keep checking my phone like a crackhead at work. I see the dollar down huge....is it possible it broke out to get all the technical traders long, before heading down to a 3 year low?

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  77. Farm Girl,

    If you are around today, awesome call on NUGT on Monday.

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  78. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  79. Roy,

    No not now, this is the meat of the gains, we are barely mid daily cycle here, day 8! I will not sell on day 8 of a brand new IT cycle or of any daily cycle really.

    The spike would need to occur within the timing band, so around day 20+. The spike is not only price based, it would need to meet criteria that signal a cycle top is imminent and likely to reverse.

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  80. Poly,
    That answers a lot...I appreciate your responses. Good luck in your trades!

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  81. DG, you read my mind. I can't stay away from that EUO.

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  82. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  83. If we were to correct from here that would be an ugly chart as it would ook like a failed breakout for gold. Some would probably argue a double top.

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  84. There was no Parabola in silver. It was a spike.

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  85. Basil, you are sounding more like Beanie every day.

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  86. I didn't know he's investing in silver. Luckily I've been right all year with my PM investments and timing.

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  87. Basil, without the benefit of you posting your PM trading methods, it is really hard to tell, but to say there was not a parabolic spike in silver is really not in touch with reality. Its silly.

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  88. 500% gain is not a parabola?? basil what are you smoking?

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  89. 500% off the 2008 Armageddon crash bottom is hardly a parabola. But believe what you like.

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  90. Silver had a high of $21 in 2008. Three years later we're not even double that. That's all you expect from the 'trade of the decade'? How are you going to make any money in silver if that's all the faith you have?

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  91. Hey guys,

    Question: not a long time subscriber...

    but i've seen that rallies like this end ugly. Miners and Gold and rallying nicely.

    I know that it is only week 2 of the IT cycle and we have ways to go, but I am already feeling scared and dont feel too good..and want to sell...any advice?

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  92. Basil,
    Silver is a thinly traded commodity. That should tell you something, right?

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  93. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  94. It's hardly a parabola IMO too. A parabola will essentially retrace an entire move.
    When viewed over a longer horizon, this recent run appears to be a very impressive speculative rally that (to date) ended with just a 35% retrace. Factor the volatile nature of Silver, the beating it took in 2008 and the 2 year consolidation, it doesn't look that out of the ordinary.

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  95. This morning Berskanke said gold is not money. Gary, I rest my case.

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  96. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  97. Dude,

    my trading method is simple:

    Buy the assets that benefit from continued QE, a period of global instability, and global government purchasing.
    If such an asset sells off 45% as silver did in May, buy more.

    There's no other trading method I need.

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  98. Gr8 call @ the bottom Gary!

    Now we wait till you say SELL! :)

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  99. What does everyone think the dollar is up to now? The DX futures contract is off more than a point and a half in less than a day and a half. Failed breakout higher?

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  100. Re-purchasing silver in the mid $30s was the right move. Purchasing it once it will exceed $40 might be a short to mid term mistake as there is no way knowing when it will pass $50 again and how much it will bounce around, but I believe it's unlikely that it will ever pass $30 on the downside.

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  101. Dr. Paul: "Is gold money?"

    Benjamin: "No."

    Dr. Paul: "Then why do central banks hold gold?"

    Benjamin: "It's an asset"

    Dr. Paul: "Then why don't they hold diamonds?"

    Benjamin: "......Tradition"

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2NJnL10vZ1Y&feature=player_embedded

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  102. Hey smart folks, can you all give me some emotional advice? Read on before laughing...

    I've learned that I am an Old Turkey type investor I will hold through too much downside, and risk too much while doing it. I have too much faith in Gary, myself, whatever, but I need to be more protective of my capital. Lesson learned. The good thing is I will sit and wait patiently when I'm in a good strong hand spot. That at least is a positive.

    I've also found I'm greedy and suck at quick trades; no scapling for me probably ever ever. I lost a bit on shorting that recent downtrend. Listen to Gary! Lesson learned.

    Now, I find myself kicking myself for not getting in NUGT as well as DGP, GDX, and GDXJ, and missing out on those extra returns. I feel as if I missed the best yacht in the marina when it was sitting in the slip waiting on me. (Athough it rocks to be on the yacht I'm on, thanks Gary!)

    I know I'm taking this seriously, but this is a serious thing we're doing, is it not? I am a perfectionist and I see that in my personality with my trades. Therein lies some great danger for me, trying to get aggressive to maximize returns... Options, etc.

    I guess what I'm asking from you super-experienced traders is, how do you respond in this situation that I find myself in to stay in a peaceful inner/mental state? I know slow and steady wins the race, etc. but fast and steady would seem to win bigger.

    Thanks... Hope this is a couple degrees clearer than river mud after a thunderstorm.

    This is a great group of folks. Y'all are awesome.

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  103. Harry,

    I believe the dollar is in a trading range like it was in the sumer of 2008. If that trading range will be equally long this time, we have another three months before the dollar will either break higher or lower. If it does break lower then, I believe it will be a quick and steep move before it will mark a bottom and run higher.

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  104. Putin just called Bernanke a hooligan!
    Classic!

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  105. Elaine - thanks, but the credit goes to John Doody, who said the miners are at their thrid buy point in 8 years.

    gold silver troll - "I am already feeling scared and dont feel too good..and want to sell...any advice?"

    When you are not scared,feeling good and wishing you'd bought more - sell! C-waves don't give the sideline cash a graceful opportunity to buy back in, and Gary says we're in a C-wave. Long way to go.

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  106. KAL, This is probably not a good place to get your warm and fuzzies. Pardon my warped sense of humor.

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  107. Whisperer, I get ya. Looking less for a hug, and more for pragmatic trading strategies. All I can think of is turn off the computer, that's about all I hear around here as a cure for what ails ya. The thing I don't want to do is mess up the next trade. Know what I mean?

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  108. if gold closes here, it look like a nice topping candle stick...

    hopefully we are just retesting the 1577 breakout

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  109. Looks like we're retesting the breakout from the consolidation box. Anyone adding here?

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  110. From http://bit.ly/qnepwc

    Former Goldman Sachs trader Andrew Maguire says the new Pan Asia Gold Exchange will create huge new demand that will drive gold prices sky high and there is concrete evidence that China plans to bring the remninbi to the world stage.

    "The Pan Asia Gold Exchange is going to send shockwaves through the mechanisms for the price discovery for both gold and silver," Maguire tells King World News. "It's backed by China's state administration for foreign exchange and also the Chinese security regulatory commission."


    Maguire expects that the first contract — a 10-ounce gold mini-contract for the domestic Chinese retail market — will go live this month.

    "It's going to have a major impact on the demand side of precious metals equation … there are 320 million customers of Ag bank of China, who going to be plugged into this exchange platform.”

    “If just 1 percent of their customers bought a single 10-oz. contract, that would require new physical demand of 1,000 tons.”

    However, Maguire, who has long suspected manipulation in the gold and silver markets, says the biggest bombshell is the offer of RMB gold contracts for international investors.

    “I know it's going to attract a lot of the world's precious metal business, providing much more of the Chinese and the international customers an alternative platform on which they can buy and sell buy and sell physical gold and silver," he says.

    Maguire believes the impact on silver will be much more pronounced. “We know silver is a much small market and it's already in tight supply,” he notes.

    “This is the tinder box."

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  111. Just my 2 cents on GLD Gold Daily Chart,


    http://screencast.com/t/zy6s5gEEQqoo

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  112. we could be retesting that 1560 breakout...

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  113. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  114. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Dj9v9s9buk

    For those of you who haven't seen this video yet, it's utterly priceless.

    Glad I doubled down yesterday on GDXJ and added to my GDX and GLD.

    Thanks for the guidance Gary, you rock.

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  115. Elaine --

    Sorry, was away. I cannot name those resistance values in terms of the gold index, but in terms of GLD it would be around 148-149.

    The next resistance would be 145.

    By no means that is not to sell, but rather to add the positions.

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  116. I am not scared,feeling good and wishing I'd bought more - should i buy more?

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  117. I would wait till we clearly break into all time highs before adding. At this point we are only a few dollars away and this would be the logical place for a correction / consolidation to potentially take place.

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  118. Gann, your charts are great but I'm not buying this one. Er, I am. I mean, I don't see a topping candle on the GC and I'm comfortable holding where I am. I'll stick with the cycles for now; it's only Day 8.

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  119. Kal
    Best advise is buy when Gary says buy. He has the data to back it up and many on this blog will confirm it.

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  120. Harry by no Means am i Saying you should sell ,,, and this is a Daily Chart, and the Day isn't over with Yet.

    I am Just Saying ,Double Tops usually are a Good place to Take some Profits .And to expect a Consolidation Period ( Pullback ) and than after ,say a 3 day Pullback GLD Makes another Run for the High's ,and this Time it Sticks.

    Like i said it's speculation on my Part, Lets see how the Daily candle Closes .But it's still something to Consider

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  121. Wallofworry

    Bernanke looked like a deer in the headlights.

    Classic

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  122. hate to ruin the partay, but toppy GLD candleschtik and overbought .... gold could consolidate for a bit/test the b/o

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  123. Shoot me for a treason, but we will get a red candlestick tomorrow.

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  124. you guys are dreaming about a topping candlestick...it's just teasing us, getting our hopes up.

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  125. I'm holding all silver miners, 90% invested at the moment. I don't go over 100% until after the first pullback so I know my risk. I don't think silver will reach new highs or possibly even double top. I think it will be a Fib retracement of the collapse. Silver just has a higher beta and the miners are in the same etfs as the gold miners. AG is up much more than gold, but carries company specific risk, which can be evened out by buying many different companies or buying SIL etc.

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  126. I'm itching to take a profit on my GDX calls...

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  127. Bruce & DP,
    My thought exactly, red candlestick tomorrow AND Friday if you ask me.
    Especially for silver.

    Just have some dry powder to buy more when things level off by next Tuesday.

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  128. Cory --

    If you don't mind sharing, can I repeat my question:

    "...Just go .5-.1 over the ask, the algos will hit them for you..."

    Would you please elaborate on that? Especially, what 0.5-0.1 mean?

    Congratulations with big gains, by the way.

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  129. Intraday indicators are showing bull ETFs and most associated stocks oversold meaning a possible upturn to the close today.

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  130. KAL,
    Good questions and issues thanks, apart from the sound advice on stage of cycle that we're at here -- more experienced investors know there's a bus leaving every 20 minutes and don't fret, would roll with the punches and be switching to the "stock follow stock" game now that a trend has been established to squeeze something out of it if they've missed the initial move, knowing they can't buy gold at 1500 would be looking for a set-up in say laggers that may have turned - AEM, GSS or JAG her and now rather than digging a deeper hole chasing XG, buy it right or don't buy it at all deserves respect, let price come to you ...

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  131. We are only on day 8 of the daily cycle. If we believe in cycle analysis there should be 2 more weeks before any significant pull backs.

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  132. Mr Miyagi,

    Please tell what those intraday indicators are if you'd be so kind.

    Thanks.

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  133. DP,

    On deep in the money puts/calls, they are not as speculative and have lower volume and a wider bid/ask spread such as 9.9 - 10.1. If you go within .05 or .1 of the bid/ask depending on if you are buying or selling you will usually fill your order immediately by market makers/algos even if there is zero volume on the day. Most options trades are retail speculators or big money hedging for tax purposes at or around the current strike. Only medium-medium large portfolios typically buy DITM options because there is slippage at the buy point and sell point. For me it is worth it over other ways of selling short:

    Inverse ETFs - slippage because of recalculations daily

    ATM or OTM options - timing and direction have to be perfect or all value is destroyed to time decay, direction is tough enough

    Shorting stocks - margin interest rate from your broker, if they even have the shares to short

    DITM options - predetermined risk and minimal time/volatility decay with a high delta, small slippage on entry/exit

    Hope that helps.

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  134. I don't mess with futures because I don't like how they settle daily and I have to sleep sometimes.

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  135. Supermalc,
    They are just your basic indicators, Stochastics, RSI, Momentum, Williams %R.

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  136. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  137. Re the market manipulation argument - I think you're all right. Ofcourse there's no market manipulation on long timeframes in gold that Gary shows, ofcourse there's a massive amount of manipulation on short- and medium-term timeframes in less liquids like silver ...

    The e-mails in this series of scandalous articles below make super reading -- "er, if the jobs data is bad we're going to smack our silver short into the ground,... but, er, if the jobs data is good, we're going to wait 5 minutes .... and .... then .... smack the daylights out of our silver short!"

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/jpm-hsbc-sued-conspiracy-keep-silver-price-low-reaping-billions-illegal-profits

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/whistleblower-exposes-jp-morgans-silver-manipulation-scheme

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  138. From the last IT bottom, I said to myself this time, I'm going to go all in and NOT chase but you know what? I'm chasing AGAIN. I bought 2 big chunks today, morning and afternoon. I'm about 65% now.

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  139. Cory --

    Thank you very much, very tutoring.

    I owe you burrito.

    What part of the country are you from?

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  140. Rob,
    That is not correct. There can be short-term corrections at any time. All cycles really tell us is when to expect the next significant correction. For gold they tend to occur every 18 to 28 days.

    But that doesn't mean that we can't have minor corrections in the meantime. Often will get some kind of minor corrective action about halfway through a cycle.

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  141. Duuuuuude said...

    Basil, without the benefit of you posting your PM trading methods, it is really hard to tell, but to say there was not a parabolic spike in silver is really not in touch with reality. Its silly.
    ---
    Dude, go back and look at SI in 1980.
    Your words would be spoken right before silver took off for another 25% rise.

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  142. Don't worry about it DP. Chipotle has a VIP card you can get worth 1 burrito a day for an entire year. I'm getting Gary a lifetime supply in 2016.

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  143. SPY QQQ top of the SOS leader board.
    GLD SLV SLW further down.

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  144. Comparing the recent run and silver to 1980 is not applicable. That was during the final blowoff stages of a secular bull market. We are still in the second phase of this bull market and nobody with a lick of common sense can look at that long-term chart of silver and not realize that that was the most massive parabolic move of this entire bull market yet.

    Silver gained 500% in two years.

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  145. And lastly,
    JPM and GOOG earnings reports tomorrow.
    JPM before the open and GOOG usually after close. If Google puts in some really good numbers, we may see an up day on Friday in the tech-zone. Then again we may see an up day anyway.

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  146. It's really something to pull up a weekly chart of gold going back to the beginning of 2009.

    We get so caught up in daily and even intra-day wiggles that sometimes it seems the "roller coaster" is bumpier than it really is.

    This C-wave that began in 2009 has just been a relentless, almost methodical chug higher.

    The May 1 fireworks when viewed on the weekly look like a total non-event.

    I'm easily amused.

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  147. Thanks SF and Michael. You all have a great day.

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  148. I wish I was all in but I'm not because I keep thinking GLD will tag its 10 DMA any day now. Probably wishful thinking.

    So I'm thinking of, well, lowering my standards. Anybody think GLD will back-test the $153 level (from May 1) imminently?

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  149. was 100% in but took an 11% prof from silver ETF today. now I'm 50% in looking for an opp to deploy

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  150. "Red candle stick guys" we need positive thinking power here! LOL

    CATBIRD, Do you look like your picture?

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  151. Is there a way to get notified about changes to the portfolio (twitter?)? This morning I checked one hour before the open and there was nothing, only to find out this afternoon that the portfolio was calling for a buy, on the open no less.

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  152. Gary gave us a stop loss of $144.00for GLD. Do we need a stop loss for GDX and GDXJ? Thanks, anyone...

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  153. Dave,

    Subscribe on Twitter: garysavage1

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  154. Moodys reviewing US AAA rating because of the impass over debt ceiling...
    Gold inching upward after hours...Gary was right on on this call...

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  155. Diana, It would be the same stop loss for GDX contingent on GLD.

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  156. Has anybody contemplated the effect of a budget deal on the price of gold?

    How much of gold's recent rally can be attributed to the looming debt ceiling showdown?

    Once a deal is struck, the spotlight will again be on Italy and Spain, and the dollar will presumably resume its rise.

    I realize that I sound a little Beanie-esqe here, but it just seems to me that sentiment is a little giddy, suggesting that the risks right now are to the downside.

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  157. Either today is the 14th, or maybe Gary got a little bit superstitious of the number 13. :-)

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  158. I have been reading about decay in leveraged ETFs and am interested to know people's thoughts on holding leveraged ETFs like DGP and NUGT until the next intermediate top. Many articles advise that these are really only for intra-day trading.

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  159. As long as the underlying asset is trending strongly in the right direction they will perform as advertised and often outperform.

    In a market that's going against you or one that is chopping around sideways they will decay.

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  160. Strong work, Gary. Appreciate all the leg work you do. Makes it easy to pull the trigger and enter. Caught silvers finish a little late but feel right on time for this run up.

    60% NUGT
    40% GDXJ

    100% ballin'!

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  161. Thanks Gary, great report! And great job on getting us in at the cycle low. :)

    Good luck with your team this weekend.

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  162. Agree with the above, great report!

    I'm sure your bring home some extra gold from the tournament :-)

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  163. Interesting read on silver.

    http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2011/07/-comex-commercial-traders-positioning-for-silver-strength.html

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  164. If I may: Gary is great at IT bottoms. It was his gift to us to nail this one. I can't even count how many posts there are every day here asking "Is now a good time to buy?" The good time was when Gary called the low. If you didn't buy then what makes you think you will and the next "good time to buy?" Trading is a psychological battle every day. Rather than asking "Is this a good time to buy?" ask "Why DIDN"T I buy when gary said to? What is that weakness in me?" Then root it out or this will happen over, and over, and over...The same emotion that prevented you from buying the IT bottom will prevent you from buying the next dip, no? Buying right takes two variables to be in play: the right time, and the guts to hit "send" on the order...and the right time doesn't matter in a bull market because you'll get bailed out anyway. That leaves...

    Great work, Gary. Thanks and good luck at the tournament.

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  165. I 100% back DG's observations on buying, or lack thereof, at Gary's IT gold bottom call. Making that call to a large list of subscribers is much more difficult than doing it on your own without the responsibility of all the folks who follow your recommendations.

    Just a fantastic call Gary. Kudos!

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  166. Thanks, Gary.

    DG and Mark - hindsight is 20-20. Before bashing the ignoramuses that twiddled away profits, remember that at the time Gary called the recent IT bottom and re-initiated positions in gold, it was right on the heels of numerous reports saying that the dollar was on the way up and gold was about to take a pretty significant drop down to the 150 or 200 DMA. Then, on a dime, as in one report later, the story was gold had already bottomed and we're back on the bull. It's easy to say do what Gary does, but when Gary himself switches tunes that fast, it's no wonder some (including me) hesitated. This isn't to criticize Gary, but to explain why people were justifiably inclined to wait and see.

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  167. Dave: Yes, I understand. But attributing a hesitation problem to an outside condition means we learn nothing and never get better at this game. There's ALWAYS at least one reason for inaction. Having noticed many of the same people making the same error over and over makes one wonder whether or not they should change their trading psychology rather than hoping for/waiting for a perfect unambiguous setup for them to enter full size. Ain't ever gopna happen.

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  168. Very quick question: If the current IT cycle turns out to be a C-wave (no promises - might be better if not anyway, bigger one later), would the expectation of avg. +24% be significantly higher, or at least possibly higher?

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  169. Sorry, read: "turns out to be a C-wave top"

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  170. Felix,
    It will all depend on how stretched above the mean gold becomes.

    Stretching a long ways above the 200 day moving average is what causes a D-wave.

    Action and reaction. The rubber band theory.

    By bottoming well above the 200 day moving average and moving to new highs in only seven days gold is now set up to stretch considerably above the mean during this intermediate cycle putting into place the conditions for a severe the D-wave decline.

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  171. Dave,
    Because gold didn't do what I was expecting it to do that was a very big clue that the intermediate cycle had bottomed. When the market doesn't do what it's supposed to do it's usually a good idea to take notice.

    I've said this before and I'll say it again, when the market tells me I'm wrong I change direction as quickly as possible. I am not going to lose money because I'm too stupid, or even worse, stubborn, to change my mind.

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  172. Gary - Thank you. Also, your answer to Dave (not to mention your cycles!) confirms how you're worth your weight-class in gold.

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  173. the problem is i cant enter a position now due to the Frank Dodd act which has banned OTC gold and silver trading. I dont feel comfortable trading leveraged positions any other way so i dont know what to do right now. Futures seems to require to much margin , not to mention being vulnerable to margin increases. Does anybody know of any way to increase leverage with low margin requirements?

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  174. After doing nothing but twiddling my thumbs and spending money, time to make some cash.
    Gary...nice call. I know I was one of the very few that never liquidated all positions. I only added a little more on your bottom call as I was thinking the "two week early Gary "indicator might be in play. HAHA. I have almost 60% cash so just I'll keep adding all the way through this daily cycle.

    re: gold/silver Crimex/LBMA shenanigans...manipulation is not price suppression.

    Re:gold as money.

    money is
    1) store of value
    2) medium of exchange
    3) divisible

    Gold is
    1) Store of value
    2) a medium of exchange
    3) Divisible. (this is important.)

    Gold is Money, always has been for 4000 thousand years, and still is today.

    And I am with those who think silver will hit triple digits.

    Alex in Montana:
    Had an awesome 10 days in Banff and area. Wife wants to move there..haha..I better make a boat load of cash for that to happen. Plus she has to do one Alberta winter first.

    good luck to all. old turkey for this IT cycle and lets all make our Christmas cash!

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  175. Hey Gary,
    Are you going with Broz gym to the tourney? Some crazy lifting going on there.
    Have fun!

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  176. Another great update from Cycle trading. Just another confirmation. Of course Gary was first to the punch.

    http://likesmoney.dojispace.com/

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  177. Took profits this morning




    James

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  178. Anyone noticed that gold almost looks like a mini 2008 top?



    James

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  179. G'day James,

    If gold screams higher, what are you going to do?

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  180. ...at ease,
    "It would be the same stop loss for GDX contingent on GLD."

    I will check Thursday to see if Fidelity will do that. I just started trading with them. Otherwise, do I base it on the same percentage that the stop loss is below GLD? Thanks for answering!

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  181. G'day from Downunder,

    Graveyard shift reporting for duty.It's only 5:20 pm here.

    Any other Aussies out there?
    Didn't our goldies scream higher today! The juniors I trade were up 2% to 6% today after a similar day yesterday. The missus is already talking about a cruise to the Mediterranean, so I had better shut up about how much I'm making! How about PoG $1600 this week?

    My chart calculations are predicting $1748 by Mid-Oct to late Nov. Time to squeeze in two or three daily cycles so I can't decide if I want to trade or hold. Maybe 50-50.

    G'nite from Oz.

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  182. Gary,
    very nice report, as usual, thanks!
    Good luck at the weight lifting contest!

    To all the hesitating fellows out there; re-read Gary's previous reports from where he announced the IT cycle low and forwards. He outlines a perfectly good strategy there for you to digest and then decide on your own.

    If you didn't buy when Gary said buy, then why would you ask for his advice over and over later on?

    I also fully agree with DG's excellent comment; take a cup of coffee and contemplate what it was that made you hesitate from the beginning when he says "buy". Was it because he changed his mind? If so that is utterly insane. Would it be better if he kept on repeating that we will soon go into a 200DMA IT cycle low when we now see new highs? No. It's infinitely better that he is agile and willing to flip stance when the available signs says so. I for one REALLY appreciate this attribute and that was the main reason why I decided to subscribe and really listen to what he says.

    Now go back, read up and DECIDE what you want to do and when to do it. Heck, write it down.

    Maybe some of you are really loss-shy and cannot stand looking at red figures? If so maybe you are using too much leverage?

    Final point; extend your charts and look at last 3-4 years. Secular bull, people. It forgives small timing errors.
    Have a nice day everyone.

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  183. Yes Diana, Call Fidelity rep and they will walk you through the order set up for sell orders on stocks contingent to GLD stop trigger amount.

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  184. Another opinion... "These two powerful indicators are suggesting that instead of a parabolic collapse, silver might instead be in the midst of “the mother of all mid-point consolidations.”

    http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2011/07/-comex-commercial-traders-positioning-for-silver-strength.html

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  185. Trading question. Fidelity says if I sell a stock/etf purchased with unsettled funds, it's a good faith violation and my account could be frozen. Settling takes 3 business days after a sale. That effectively means I can make only about 1 intraday trade a week. What kind of account do I need to get around this? Basically how do the day traders set up their accounts? Thanks.

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