For those of you still on the fence I'm going to once again try to entice you onto the bull. I have unlocked last week's weekend report. Click here to go to the premium website. The August 28th weekend report has been unlocked.
For the next week I'm going to offer a buy one get three free subscription. If you buy a one year subscription at the regular price($200) I will add three free months to it.
This should be long enough to get investors through the current C-wave advance, avoid the D-wave that will follow it, and get you back on board in time for the next A-wave rally.
If you would like to take advantage of the offer click here and follow the Paypal link.
Current subscribers can add to their existing membership so long as they didn't already do so last week or last month. Only one extension per subscriber (I don't want to go out past 2012 with current subscriptions).
Gary, I admire your persistence. (I am a subscriber and took advantage of your recent offer to extend sub by one year).
ReplyDeleteI suspect you are wanting to load up on cash, so you can put it all into gold, silver, or miners on this current C wave. :-)
Good plan, and good luck!
I am dumping any extra cash into miners and silver but I also think this is a very rare opportunity and I really want to convince as many people as possible to join in the ride.
ReplyDeleteHi Gary,
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think about investing in gold futures?
Nothing wrong with it. Just don't get so leveraged that a small move agaisnt you triggers a margin call that you can't meet. The prcious metals markets tend to be very volatile. The last month is the exception not the rule.
ReplyDeleteHi Gary, I am a subscriber and have done very well following your directions with the PM bull.
ReplyDeleteI have a question concerning my current allocations and if a switch may prove more profitable.
I have a position in GLD that is currently up $12 per share. I have compared GLD against GDX and SLW, and noticed that % wise the miners have outpreformed GLD.
Would I be better off selling GLD and moving the proceeds into GDX and SLW? This is a IRA account, so no tax consquences.
thanks,
Bruce
Make no mistake gold will underperform during the rest of this bull market. Considering that the gold:XAU ratio is still above 6 gold should underperform GDX for the remainder of the C-wave. The gold:silver ratio is at 63. Gold will massivly underperform silver during the remainder of the C-wave.
ReplyDeleteSLW is another story altogether. It is a fantastic company, but buying SLW exposes you to company specific risk. One has to decide if they are willing to take that risk in an indivdual stock that isn't there with an ETF like GDX or GDXJ or a pure silver play like SLV or AGQ.
HY Gary,
ReplyDeleteI have to complain here,
your current offer is not fair for everybody who took the special offer for one year when your offered it the first time, some months back with no extra 3 months.
I mean I jumped the gun back than, when I was one of the first who extended the sub and now I kinda fell tricked with you starting to offer a special rate every week.
I have to admit since I joined you back in early 2009 my positions like in SLW are up 183% till today, thanks to you, and sure if I would be you I would do the same and try to get as much money as possible together to invest in miners, but still these weekly ocurring discount offerings do insult the trust I put in you when I extended my sub.
I feelt I needed to say this....
Back to business: Some Sunday read for you guys: this is a interresting read to see how jpm gets rid of there silver shorts http://www.roadtoroota.com/public/367.cfm
and I noticed myself watching the intraday chart for silver for the
last 10 days that the ticks have behaved different. It looks more spiky, faster up and downs which indicates more trading activity.
Most of the traders I watch have started mentioning pm stocks as they start to show up on there scans more frequently.
Specially the breakout in Silver is very much anticipated by the traders, which let me think that a breakout in silver will at first only be short lived.
Mr Laidi here http://www.ashraflaidi.com/articles/the-qe-case-for-gold-silver.asp an excelent market strategiest points to the trendline breakdown in the Gold/Silver ratio which should lead to higher prices in the sector, and if QE 2.1ish, whoever will starts it(BOJ;BOE;ECB;or FED)
will kick it will be another pro for the PM case.
Mr Laidi thinks it will be the BOE, I think that too based on the fact that when I was in London last week the percentage of Ferraris in the downtown traffiq seemed kinda low to me compared to last year, they need money desperatly I think:)
I have to work tomorrow for everyone who does not have a great Labor Day.
Alex,
ReplyDeleteThe prior offer was one year for $150.
The current offer is 15 months for $200.
If you wish to add $50 to your account I will be happy to add another three months to your subscription.
Alex:
ReplyDelete$200/15 = $13.33 per month.
$150/12 = $12.50 per month.
You got the better deal.
Oh,right "the who can read wins".
ReplyDeleteDid not saw the 200$ price tag, sry for the wrong complain, and thanks but no thanks I like to keep my 50$ ;)
GARY,
ReplyDeleteThere was an unfinished discussion between us on the last thread.
To refresh: It was my contention that a 'runaway' in gold was unlikely except when gold is in new high territory and that I was waiting for a likely pullback to enter a larger leveraged position.
You had countered that the lows in 2006 somehow resulted in a runaway (as an exampmle) and that your 'runaway' situation offered little opportunity for people to get in. That I was waiting to long for something that probably wouldnt' happen. (PS: when you use a year as an example of something could you narrow down with a month at least so I can be sure what you are referring to. The "lows of 2006" doesn't tell me whether you are talking before or after the C blowoff peak.)
In general, rational and well meaning people only disagree when terms, facts, details, or otherwise are mis-communicated (or left out) of a discussion. (This doesn't address opinions like what ice cream flavor is better.) With both of us being rational and seeking the same outcome (winning this game), let me better detail my assertion with the belief that we are simply miscommunicating our terms:
A *RUNAWAY* as I would define it, is a rather straight up rally in a security such that I am *never* able to get back into that security on at LEAST a 50% pullback within, say, 3-6 weeks. My definition would be a bit flexible such that maybe you can go longer than 6 weeks or maybe the pullback is deeper than 50%, but I'll go with that for now as my reference example.
The move in Gold starting 9/2/07 *was* a runaway by my definition. It NEVER pulled back for the entire move with any sort of correction (before, of course, topping and then crashing in 08 - presumably we would all be out of such a future D decline). A runaway doesn't count possibly getting back in on the post C top crash. It deals with getting in on the ramp up to the C top.
--TZguy
===CONTINUED IN FOLLOWING POST===
Runaways are very rare (by my definition) and I can NOT find any for last 10yrs that occurred when gold was NOT trading at new high levels. All trading at levels BELOW new highs invariably results in frequent corrections that retrace at least 50% of the previous move. Such retraces coming every 3-6 weeks or so (matching your cycles perhaps).
ReplyDeleteTHUS...I continue to suggest that:
a) gold is not at a new high (yet).
b) we've rallied for 5 weeks - well within range of getting ready for a pullback.
c) we are due for a correction that retraces at least 50% of this move so far.
A comment you had also made was that waiting for such corrections was minor. I disagree - especially as a person seeking to use more that 1x leverage (remember...it's just a TOOL - it is neither good nor bad by itself. I'm not trying to debate leverage - that's a different topic. Even somebody only only goes 1x should be interested in a 5-10% better entry point.)
A current 50% correction of this $100 run would be about $50 - a very SIGNIFICANT amount by my standard. Previous examples from 06 07 which you seemed to view as a 'runaway' (by your own definition) had regular corrections of 10% or so along the way. If somebody is 2x, that's a 20% correction - again not insignificant in my book.
So...I think I've clarified my position and definition on 'runaways' and why I'm not inclined (YET) to chase this or increase beyond my core right here. I could be wrong of course - that's the game, but I'm gonna play it like this for now if and until the facts change from my scenario above. With my clarifications here we should be able to better evaluate the discussion between us.
--TZguy
Obviously my comments are comming from somebody dealing with not getting in on the 1155 low. It happens. I'm wrong frequently in the market and you've been killing it. That's how this goes.
ReplyDeleteI simply have to best deal with the current hand i'm playing in the current situation and this is how I view my next move. If we break to new highs and don't pull back I have to move onto the next plan, but I view the odds of that low (but not zero) based on past history and I'm gonna go with the odds as I see them for now. Understandably the market looks strong and maybe things really have changed and this is the time we shoot and never turn back. I don't know.
But I do know that I believed that statement many times in the past, bought it, and promptly got retraced on. They say that "this time it is different" is a very dangerous phrase.
--TZguy
First off the runaway move in 06 was in the stock market not gold. It started as the marekt came out of the August low.
ReplyDeleteA runaway move isn't a parabolic move. A runaway move is a persistent trend with shallow measured pullback's.
The stock marekt recent went into another, although much briefer runaway move out of the Feb. bottom.
ReplyDeleteIf gold develops into a runaway move then you are never going to get your $50 pullback until the move is over. The reason is the first correction has already determined the "size" of the measured corrections.
ReplyDeleteThe correction I'm talking about was the brief move down into the daily cycle low. That move retraced $27.
If a runaway develops all corrections will fall within a range of about $25 to $40. Anything much greater than that will be an ending move and a signal the move is over not an opportunity to get in.
I suspect there are quite a few people in the same position as you. So my guess is when you can no longer take the pain of missing any more of the move and buy virtually everyone else is going to be feeling the same thing as you. You will all pile in at the same time and of course that will initiate the correction.
ReplyDeleteYou can then do one of two things. You can sell for a loss. Or you can just hang on and let the bull correct your timing mistake.
I will say that if you sell for a loss then you are doing the one thing that can cause you to lose money on the long side in a bull market.
The only time I would ever sell a long position was if I was very confident I would be able to enter at a lower price. In that scenario it would make sense to take a small loss because you would more than make up for it by entering at much lower prices.
The problem is that in a bull market one can never be positive they wil be able to get in at lower prices. In bull markets the surprises come on the up side.
So selling for a loss is a flawed strategy in bull markets, especially ones that are in the middle of a strong C-wave advance.
If it was me I would just enter as soon as the HUI breaks out of the triangle consolidation or as soon as silver breaks above $21 as long as it's not too deep in the daily cycle.
The key point right now is that it is still early in the dialy cycle. The kind of pullback you are looking for won't come until the next cycle low and that is potentially 2 to 3 weeks away.
I'm not discussing the stock market with any of my comments - only gold. So you mentioning a runaway in stocks doesn't enter my calculation here and none of my earlier comments applied to stocks either.
ReplyDeleteI do not think the $27 drop 2 weeks ago was the extent of the correction this move will soon have. It didn't meet my 50% rule since the 1155 bottom for one thing.
I think it is quite possible we do not break the highs in gold this week, or if so only enough to suck buyers in before retreating. Thus a possible pullback within you 2-3 week timeframe also would match my timeframe whereby a pullback starts this week or next week with little upside remaining before then.
The HUI and GDX triangle is very appealing and I will likely get in that on or near a breakout as you suggest. I was already planning on it. But it won't break out just yet, i think, with my gold projections.
Yes, I've missed some of the rally, but I've gotten better at controlling (and measuring) the 'pain' of not buying in something seemingly going to the moon. I've got some reasonable metrics that suggest a bit more waiting will work for me.
Let's just wait here and see. Like I said, I've been doing this long enough such that my first statements after an assertion is "what if i'm wrong" cause the mkt tends to make that come true.
--TZguy
I was just pointing out what a runaway move is. I think you believe a runaway move is a parabolic type move and it's not.
ReplyDeleteI used the 06 stock market rally as an example of what a runaway move is. Gold could do the same thing. No parabolic move just a persistent rally that never gives one much of a pullback to enter.
I defined my use of the word 'runaway'. I didn't use the word parabolic.
ReplyDeleteI simply said it was a move up which never allowed a person to get in on a 50% retracement within 3-6 weeks. We have had a move up of about $100 in 5 weeks that has never retraced 50% so far.
If gold breaks highs, doesn't pullback, and doesn't give a 50% retracement soon, it will be a runaway by my definition.
I said it is rare to have a runaway when gold is NOT making new highs. We aren't making new highs yet so by waiting i'm betting we will get that 50% or so pullback in the next week or two.
PS: there were runaways by my definition 3/12/06-5/14/06 and 9/2/07-3/15/08. Both of there were occurring in new high territory.
If you can point out a 'runaway' (where somebody can't get in on a 50% or more pullback in 3-6 weeks) that occurred outside of new high territory I would be glad to consider or discuss it.
--TZguy
I defined my use of the word 'runaway'. I didn't use the word parabolic.
ReplyDeleteI simply said it was a move up which never allowed a person to get in on a 50% retracement within 3-6 weeks. We have had a move up of about $100 in 5 weeks that has never retraced 50% so far.
If gold breaks highs, doesn't pullback, and doesn't give a 50% retracement soon, it will be a runaway by my definition.
I said it is rare to have a runaway when gold is NOT making new highs. We aren't making new highs yet so by waiting i'm betting we will get that 50% or so pullback in the next week or two.
PS: there were runaways by my definition 3/12/06-5/14/06 and 9/2/07-3/15/08. Both of these were occurring in new high territory.
If you can point out a 'runaway' (where somebody can't get in on a 50% or more pullback in 3-6 weeks) that occurred outside of new high territory I would be glad to consider or discuss it. I believe what I'm asserting to be true (and betting money on for now), but maybe i'm not.
--TZguy
Well the odds of you getting a 50% pullback of the current rally out of the July bottom is virtually 0 and here is the reason why.
ReplyDeleteIn a C-wave advance no daily cycle low will drop below a previous one. Also every daily cycle except the last one of the larger intermediate cycle will be right translated.
For gold to pullback 50% would mean it would drop below the previous daily cycle low and if that were to happen this early then gold would be in a D-wave decline and you wouldn't want to enter anyway.
At most you might get a 50% retracement of the current daily cycle. But since we probably don't have the top of that cycle yet there is no way to caculate what a 50% pullback would be.
If gold were to rally to say $1270 then a 50% pullback of the move from $1210 to $1270 would be $30.
I'm aware those statements may be true.
ReplyDeleteMy approach has flaws. Your approach has flaws. An example for now might be that this is an extended daily cycle and we haven't pulled back yet. I'm new to cycles so I'm just throwing it out. You believe it not true and I'm aware if that.
Cycles (or anything else) don't work 100%. I'm prepared to be wrong and will deal with the consequences if so. We just disagree about the immediate future. Makes a game of it.
Watching and waiting for now...
--TZguy
There are plenty of gold stocks that could be bought to capture gains if gold is going to breakout here. That's what's great about the current dichotomy in gold stocks. You have 3 stocks, ego anv and slw that have already made big gains but instead of chasing them anyone who wants more exposure can buy a dozen or more gold stocks on a gold breakout that have virtually gone nowhere since 2009. I'm still suspicious that another huge run is in the cards after an already huge run, but if gold does breakout obviously some of these stocks, especially ones that haven't done much will play catchup.
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteYou say that the pattern in the HUI could drive it to 850 or so. This also seems to coincide with a reverse head & shoulders pattern in the HUI. My question is where do you think the juniors will be in relation to the HUI, taking GDXJ as a proxy. I will assume you think they will outperform the seniors of the HUI. Do you have any analysis of how much they should outperform? Have you looked at any ratios such as the juniors to seniors or juniors to bullion in the way you looked at some great ratios in this weekend's report. I'm just trying to get a sense of where the GDXJ can be in relation to the HUI so I can get a sense of where they may be headed in terms of a possible top.
Thanks in advance!
Steven
Good discussion
ReplyDeleteSteven,
ReplyDeleteThere just isn't enough history on juniors to make any kind of guess as to price targets.
I will just be on the lookout for a potential C-wave top when it is due. At that time I will exit all PM positions.
Gary,
ReplyDeleteMy *gut* is telling me I won't get that 50% retracement. I actually AGREE with you. The problem is that the market has a way of making people feel something can't happen, just as soon as it then does.
Like I said, we will know soon enough.
--TZguy
I was at a gathering tonight and more than one person commented they have their money in PMs. I hadn't spoken about it with them before.
ReplyDeleteI'm wondering at what point the public will be "all in" on the PMs and then the gig is up.
Once the sentiment gets too skewed, then cycle or no cycle, the move will have topped.
Mrac,
ReplyDeleteDon't worry you will know it when it happens. There will be billboareds advertising gold all over the highway. Lines at the local gold dealer. Everyone that you work with will be buying gold.
And whats more when you see this start to happen it will go on for about a year to a year and a half before it's all over.
You'll know its time to get out of gold when Walmart starts selling it!
ReplyDeleteAnother way I have become aware of heavy public participation in sectors is when I tell them to sell some of it. In the early 80's when I told people oil was going to go down, they said it's impossible: "They're not making any more of it, you know...OPEC has us by the throat...What are you crazy?"...etc." When I suggested real estate was about to tank in 2007 I got the exact same response. Same with tech stocks in 2000 selling at infinity time earnings. At some point, after gold goes parabolic, try suggesting to someone it's going to go down. If they laugh at you, sell it all! They'll have "great" reasons why it can't go down. As Gary says, human nature never changes, which is why cycles and technical analysis (not just charts) works.
ReplyDeleteTZ dude,
ReplyDeleteI appreciate your posts and agree with much of your thinking, here’s a thought for you. If Gary is right (and I think he is) about silver leading the charge for the latter part of the C wave, then perform your layered leveraged trade on silver this time instead of gold, that’s what I am doing. Last week when silver broke above $19.50 I felt that was a major breakout so I put on the first layer of my leverage in my futures account. If we do get a pullback soon I think it will be contained to about $18.50, an area where one could argue silver broke out by breaking a trendline. I will put on my second layer in that area if we pullback that far. If not, I will be looking to put on my second layer at a break of $21. Not sure right now on the third layer, maybe a test of the $21 breakout, or if Gary gets out his “big club for subs” and starts beating us over the head and saying “buy now” or your gonna miss the G train. :) Good luck with whatever you decide!
At a certain point you just got to put in. If you wait perpetually to find the perfect entry, you will miss the big show. Right now, it seems there is more risk to being out the market instead of in it. I agree gold is a real beast, and from the perspective timing and suffering a drawdown is secondary to the over-all big picture.
ReplyDeleteI constantly have to check the fundamentals over and over again. Nothing has changed, except the fundamentals for gold and pms keep going up as the world’s reserve currency is at the point of no return...just about.
I really couldn't understand Gary's need to see the USD fall, since all currencies are crap. Finally understand now though. The USD, the national currency, is not the question. Its USD the reserve currency and the corner stone to the world economic system that is in question. We basically went from a Breton woods modified gold standard to a USD standard. The problem with this standard is that the USD was not independent with national interests that differed from world needs as a reserve standard. As a world standard the USD is falling from grace. In that is a requirement to the gold bull to really take off. The economic "USD standard" is almost at the point of no return. Almost, at the brink of disaster. The FED, still has the choice to avert disaster in terms of the USD destroying itself as the reserve currency, but hard choices. And I don’t believe it, but it still has the choice. Moreso, I think the following is already been talked about and is in the planning stages. The IMF will most likely develop a new reserve currency, which will consist of a basket of all currencies and will most likely include gold. I would expect the new IMF currency to freely float against the USD for a time, and then most public debt will be revalued, and the system will reset.
At this point the US as a nation will be allowed to repair, since it is independent from the rest of the world.
In any event, when I see stuff like this and see gold hovering around $5000 and silver over $100 at least, and maybe maybe into $400-$500, now becomes the time to buy, have a beer, and wait. Old turkey never played a bigger role in my investment ever. Get strong hand status, and make sure that even if I am wrong about $5000, buy while $2000 is a no brainer.
Of course, I am not perfect and from boredom trade a small percentage irresponsibly.
I've got to say boys and girls, it's looking an awful lot like it's going to be:
ReplyDeleteG-train 4
Troll boys and Perma-bears 0
;)
Jesse Livermore from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator:
ReplyDelete"Speculation is far too exciting. Most people who speculate hound the brokerage offices... the ticker is always on their minds. They are so engrossed with the minor ups and downs, they miss the big movements."
"The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, or for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor."
"There are times when money can be made investing and speculating in stocks, but money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year. Only the foolhardy will try it. It just is not in the cards and cannot be done."
Yep, I learned that lesson a long time ago.
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteWith your cycles, when would you not be surprised to have the USD's final bottom. Not asking for a tradeable specific cyrstal ball date.
Many thanks :)
Sometime between March and June.
ReplyDeleteSLW, EGO, ANV have been a few of the stars.
ReplyDeleteDo we chase these, they have been momentum stocks with many jumping on the bandwagon or do these finally cool off and the under valued plays like AUY, SVM, HL, SSRI, PAAS finally catch up? (Those looking to add on any pullbacks we get.)
Generally speaking the ones that have shown relative strength usually continue to show relative strength. And if the C-wave does what I think it will do none of those stocks you mentioned are going to be turning south anytime soon.
ReplyDeleteHowever the perpetual underperformers may have a reason for underperforming and that reason may not go away just because the price of gold increases.
This is the flaw in Justin's plan to buy depressed miners after the break. They may just continue to stay depressed.
Actually if you've followed the mining space for a while like I have, you'd notice that some of the biggest moves occur in some of the worst names towards the end of major moves higher in gold. Sometimes you have to wait a while but if enough money pours into the sector it will lift a lot of boats, including stocks that have big shorts against them due to some fundamental reason. Or you could have a fundamental turnaround news event at the same time as shorts are getting squeezed in a miner during the rally.
ReplyDeleteSo I'm afraid Gary's not correct in that statement. Sure the leaders could keep rallying but more boats are going to be lifted, and if gold is really going to go up that big then they will play catchup big time. What you will also see is some juniors even massively outperform the three names mentioned.
SLW is likely to drop to 21-22 within the next 9 trading days in my opinion.
ReplyDeleteMomentum is dropping (I'm using a certain technical indicator). Caution warranted. I closed my puts before but might re-instate for a short bet on a correction. Regardless I wait and intend to get in on that pullback.
--TZguy
GARY,
ReplyDeleteYou often discuss HUI in your analysis. I have a suggestion.
Unless you are doing something requiring long term visualization (longer than 4 years) I suggest that sticking to GDX instead is a better choice.
1) The are almost perfectly correlated so technically what you apply to one will apply to the other.
2) However GDX is tradable and owned (or of interest) to a great deal of us here.
Why discuss HUI and make people mentally translate to GDX when they can never buy or will not own HUI? Sticking to GDX lets all discussion and trading decisions focus on a single point. (XAU has even worse issue here.)
--TZguy
Certainly some will come back. Maybe even outperform but without a crystal ball your chances of finding them are not great.
ReplyDeleteIf there is a reason they are depressed, and if that reason has nothing to do with the price of gold, you could end up being stuck in the mud while everything else rallies big.
This is a bull market. In bull markets one buys the dips. We just got the best opportunity to do just that since February. One can make up all kinds of reasons for letting the opportunity slip away and and even rationalize why it was the right thing to do but none of that will grow your portfolio.
Till this bull market has run its course the correct strategy is to continue buying dips. Those are going to come on average about every 20-25 weeks. I will let everyone know when we are in one. It's your choice if you want to seize the opportunity or not.
I do think everyone by now knows that GDX is virtually the same thing as the HUI.
ReplyDeleteI'm going to stick with the HUI because there is a lot more historical long term data and the GDX will be driven by the support and resistance levels on the HUI not the other way around.
Gary there's always the chance a dip turns into an extended downtrend so just saying "you buy the dips" isn't always correct. You yourself say you're going to get out during D wave declines so you're not even holding during all pullbacks either, so quit trying to kid yourself.
ReplyDeleteThe fact is if this is going to be another big rally in gold there are plenty of miners that haven't done much that will reap big gains during the rally. It's just the way the dichotomy is right now, so if you don't believe that you're just not looking at the charts. You can pretend that's not the situation all you want but it certainly is this time.
Actually one of the names you own is recognized to be a fundamentally flawed company, CDE. But that's exactly the type of stock with some good fundamental news that will instantly drive it's price much higher than people expect while burning plenty of shorts, if we do get another big move in gold.
ReplyDeleteJustin,
ReplyDeleteThe difference is that I know what to look for before a D-wave starts. And it doesn't start from the conditions that existed a couple of months ago. The fact that the dollar is now due to put in a major decline was also a major consideration.
The odds were very slim that your serious correction scenario would play out. As long as that was the case then I wanted to be a buyer as soon as I thought the intermediate cycle had bottomed.
While you were waiting for some kind of confirmation I was busy adding a little over 10% to my portfolio. (I didn't need confirmation. I've already had 10 years worth.)
Now one can certainly miss that if they choose to make sure they are right. I'm just not one of those people that are willing to do that. And I would point out that all the people who needed the confirmation of a breakout got caught in June at the top and had to weather the last intermediate correction.
Waiting for a breakout isn't a fool proof plan to avoid drawdowns. As a matter of fact most of the time it will guarantee them as most breakouts retrace to shake out the late comers.
Then of course if one waits for the breakout and then waits for the retracement sometimes the bull will just continue to run and you get left behind.
There really is no holy grail and the only way to make sure you reap the rewards of the bull is to go Old Turkey and buy dips.
Actually of the major silver names, almost all are down for the year, except of course SLW. PAAS is barely up for the year, and CDE, HL, and SSRI are all down for the year. Does anyone honestly think those 3 names aren't going to play catchup if silver breaks out, given the fact that the silver sector is that tiny? Remember during the dot com craze the crappiest stocks performed the best.
ReplyDeleteIf we are going to see a serious rally in the metals here the 3 silver names that are down for the year, along with a host of other miners that have done nothing since 2009 will go up a lot. That's really all I care about so even though you may have timed the last dip correctly, which is still not set in stone that you have, there's plenty of gains to be had.
ReplyDeleteSo good job if you did. But acting like you can play ever dip perfectly is a recipe for disaster in my opinion when you time the next dip wrong. I definitely wouldn't want to get in some sort of mindset that I can time all intermediate term dips correctly.
I am counting on them to catch up :)
ReplyDeleteBut I wasn't willing to risk them getting away from me by sitting on my hands after gold had put in it's intermeidate cycle low.
Your strategy works in theory after the fact but in real time one has no way of knowing if these stocks will remain depressed. They could very well have run up big while you waited.
Actually CDE is a perfect example. during the time you were fretting over a possible drawdown CDE rallied 20%.
The gold and silver hit already looks like it might be starting overnight. It's time to test price chases to the downside.
ReplyDelete--TZguy
Justin,
ReplyDeleteI'm not making the case that I will time every dip perfectly. I most certainly will not. I didn't time the Feb. dip well at all.
What I'm trying to tell you is that the bull will correct any timing mistake. Knowing that, one who is willing to buy the dips will massivley outperform someone who has to wait for a breakout before they can bring themselves to buy.
I'm showing gold up $3.00?
ReplyDeleteIt's till too early to expect a daily cycle top and I seriously doubt it will come before gold hits $1260ish and tests the highs
What I don't understand is this deathly fear of suffering a drawdown. You act like it will be the end of the world if you don't time your entry perfectly.
ReplyDeleteI can tell you there are plenty of people here on this blog, myself included, who are getting rich by suffering drawdowns.
A drawdown is meaningless as long as you are willing to give the bull time to do what bulls do.
Data error. I jumped the gun a bit :-)
ReplyDelete--TZguy
The thing is it's hard to tell who will "outperform" another person, even if you "timed" the last pullback perfectly. For example I could easily make a few lucky picks that you didn't on some juniors, and watch them go up a few hundred percent more than yours did, even if I enter them later than you did. That's just the way it is since no one is going to know ahead of time which stocks will outperform others. Or I could allocate more money towards a stock that is doing better than others in my portfolio by chance and get lucky on that stock making a big move.
ReplyDeleteThe key really is just to recognize the sector making the move, and be on board in some way when it happens. If there are a hundred different options to get on board, then the performance is going to range widely between how money is allocated across the sector.
Still...it isn't moving much (yet) but gold and silver look like the next takedown has begun.
ReplyDelete--TZguy
Justin should be banned just for being so wrong on his the long dollar and short stocks trades. Especially annoying is the tone he uses critiquing Gary, who has spanked him at every challenge.
ReplyDeleteI'd suggest he buy a ticket on the G-train, buckle up, shut up, and enjoy the ride. Justin's getting pounded while the rest of us take his money.
THANK YOU JUSTIN! :)
Let's just say if we were racing a mile, I'm starting at the quarter mile mark. I like my odds :)
ReplyDeleteI'd actually rather have a brain than be trapped in the mind of a 5th grader, mindlessly cheerleading someone picking stocks and providing G-string worthy comments.
ReplyDeleteGood job on that early lead Gary, but unfortunately even people entering later can pick the right stock and smoke you at the finish line. Just the way it is.
ReplyDeleteYep there could be a really good miler that might run me down but I still like my odds.
ReplyDeleteMr. Hyde is about to come out. Dr. Jekyll is starting to get angry.
ReplyDeleteTZ,
ReplyDeleteWhy do you constantly want to short one of the strongest stocks in the universe, both fundamentally and technically. It would seem to me you would pick the weakest fundamental sector (seems to be semis right now), and pick a stock in a downtrend. One thing I have noticed about short sellers,is that technical shorting is a tough game. Famous short sellers do so with much investigation regarding fundamentals of a company. Think Einhorn vs Lehman etc. I know Gary has tried to tell you never short a bull market. I don't get the death wish. If anything, it would seem to me that you use any pullback to buy, instead of hoping for a minor gain on a short position.
This is why I warn not to short bull markets. We've already seen the first attempt whittle away a little cash. If you miss again you will lose a little more.
ReplyDeleteIn the long run this strategy is destined to lose money. Money that would be much better off just buying dips. You have the safty net of a bull market under you when you buy dips.
Trying to short a bull is like trying to snatch the cheese out of a mouse trap. Every once in a while you might succeed but most of the time you are just going to end up with bruises.
Justin,
ReplyDeleteThis obsession with timing entry points is symptomatic of a need to believe you're in control. You aren't. It's a manifestation of your fear. You have no way of avoiding some kind of drawdown in investing, and the desperate need to avoid them -- the need to believe you're in control -- will cost you money in the long run.
Similarly, you have no business chiding Gary about money you have yet to make, and on how you'll outperform him at some point in the future. He has outperformed you so far. He has been correct; you have been wrong. Nothing wrong with that, but it's arrogant in the extreme to lord it over people based on money you have yet to earn.
You suffer from a nasty case of magical thinking. The fact that you've already decided that you're going to outperform based on some supposition of yours is symptomatic of personality flaws that are lethal in an investor. The market does not exist to bolster your ego.
"Trying to short a bull is like trying to snatch the cheese out of a mouse trap."- Gary
ReplyDeleteWell, if you've studied the cheese in mousetrap space like I have..." :)
I could really care less whether Gary outperforms me or not, and it's impossible anyway to tell which stocks will ultimately make the biggest moves in the sector anyway. If measuring your self worth is all about beating somebody by 10 or 20 percent than all I have to say is good luck in life.
ReplyDeleteAs far as drawdowns go, according to the technical evidence I formed my own opinion off of, I thought we needed more consolidation before gold broke out again. So maybe I'll be proven wrong in the next few weeks, that's not a big deal, the important thing is that I recognize when I'm wrong and adjust accordingly. The only way you get beat is being wrong, and staying wrong.
You guys have one track minds on this whole 'shorting the market' and 'short sellings' thing.
ReplyDeleteI'M NOT A DAMN SHORT SELLER. DROP IT! I trade long 99.999%.
I've bought puts on SLW **ONE TIME BEFORE IN THE SAME SITUATION**.
You know what happened?
I made 2.5x my money (and it wasn't 3 options for $82)
So deal with it.
You seem to argue that there is NO LEVEL OF GAINS or NO AMOUNT OF SHORT TERM INCREASES whereby there then presents a *reasonable bet* that at least part of those gains will correct back in the near term.
The people making those arguments, frankly, are WRONG cause history and simply looking at charts proves the opposite. Those bets are possible all the time. And the odds **increase** in your favor after, for example, what SLW has just done.
Should those bets be made all the time? No. Is is better to be long and hold for gains? Sure.
But this possibility presents itself here and now and I raised it.
Buy all the SLW you want at 24. We'll see how this turns out for you in the next 2 weeks.
(Yes...if you go 1x and buy and hold you will be fine. But if I go 2x or 3x at a good entry with limited risk then I'll blow your returns away. Did I say "perfect" entry? No. Do I have some fear of drawdowns you guys keep raising? No. I just don't want to make a STUPID BUY when something is hanging in midair.)
I hesitate to raise this again cause it seems so many people can't read or understand my arguments here.
--TZguy
TZ,
ReplyDeleteIf you are truly reading this blog you have to have some idea of the cycles and how they work. Your quick 1x or 2x would be more like 100x with calls on these stocks you are looking for a top on when the daily cycle still has some time left and the int. cycle has a long way to go. Gary is a great coach, but you need to pay close attention. He is putting in lots of extra effort with you and Justin.
BRIAN,
ReplyDeleteQuite a way of twisting things. Now I even need "help" all based on a few weeks of talking about and missing a single turn in the market.
I'm doing fine. Thanks for the concern.
I'm also not aware this is a cult or that Gary or anybody else is right 100% of the time.
Gary is a valuable source of information and I incorporate his thoughts ALONG WITH MY OWN CONSIDERABLE EXPERIENCE into my actions.
Thing will work out OK. I promise you.
--TZguy
Brian,
ReplyDeleteI'm sorry if that sounds pissy, but some of the comments just got to me.
--TZguy
Hi Gary,
ReplyDeleteYou mentioned a target of 1425ish for gold to take profits, maybe in late Oct or Nov. I guess this means you expect a non-trivial pullback then. Do you have an estimate of what the pullback will be like?
That's just a guess and it is dependant on a runaway move NOT getting started.
ReplyDeleteGary, aren't the COT reports for gold & silver suggesting a pullback is imminent?
ReplyDeleteTZ focuses on the short side and potential pullbacks rather than the long term bull. It's all he talks about, even after the conversation has moved on!
ReplyDeleteCOT reports are worthless for timing tops. All they are good for is spotting a D-wave bottom.
ReplyDeleteTops are mostly impossible to time unless gold happens to run deep into a cycle timing band. Then sometimes you can catch one with a swing high.
Gary-
ReplyDeleteThe cycle before the July 28th intermediate low, when did it start? It looks extremely long to me.
Thanks
MBS
June 24th
ReplyDeleteGary--
ReplyDeleteThe daily cycle is what I'm looking for. Thanks
MBS
wow.gold break 1254 to 1256 now!
ReplyDeleteSurprise on the upside. Dollar up, gold too!
ReplyDeleteI have noted several days of silver and gold futures starting fairly strongly down(today was another one), but before the NYSE open having recovered most losses and even generating many gains. Obvious to many on this board, and Gary has alluded to as well.
ReplyDeleteWhat I was wondering if this pattern is consistent with other C-wave advances. I generally don't follow day-to-day ticks, but coming to this blog I have been looking more at short-term occurrences and oddities (not trading occurrence to be consistent with what I have been mentioning before). This oddity has happened several times in the last weeks. Am I seeing things?
The pattern in uptrends is for the market to open lower and end higher. Gold is in the middle of a new daily cycle so we should probably expect it to follow this pattern most days.
ReplyDeleteWooo HOOOO! I loves gittin' paid!
ReplyDeleteI'm taking the day off to go on a long ATV ride (new ATV thanks to Gary). Good luck, fellas.
Big USD bounce off 200 DMA, right up to resistance at the 50, but gold doesn't care:)Tough trick now is to where the sell point for leveraged gold positions will be.Can Gary figure it out again with pin-point accuracy again as he has with his calls lately:)
ReplyDeleteFrank
Gary,
ReplyDeleteIf your analysis of the dollar doesn't play out and instead of going down it rallies and the dips on the rally turn out to be the cycle lows you're expecting, will this change your gold outlook, especially in regards to the possibility of a "D" wave occurring soon?
You had mentioned that you expect the current C wave to continue into spring of next year, but if the dollar goes on to make new highs above the June highs, could this mean an earlier end to the C wave?
Gold rise silver drop?
ReplyDeletePC,
ReplyDeleteHave no fear the dollar will drop into a three year cycle low. That never changes.
Rebought SLW 21.5 puts.
ReplyDeleteWent long some IAG (which is starting to breakout and hasn't had a crazy run yet).
--TZguy
Correction: the SLW puts strike is 22.5. Price $0.25 each.
ReplyDelete--TZguy
I would rather buy SLW at $24 when it fills the morning gap than try to short it.
ReplyDeleteThe 200 DMA is down below 81.50. The moving averages on UUP are a bit different than the dollar.
ReplyDeleteSome info:
ReplyDeleteMost know you can trade margin and go up to 2x on stocks. (Although by running exactly up to the 2x line you can easily get a margin call on a small dip).
Futures (gold, silver) let you go 10x-20x.
You may not know that there also exist SINGLE STOCK FUTURES (SSFs) which let you go 5x and work like futures (but not for tax purposes), but trade on *stocks*. So you get a combination.
SLW, GDX, IAG and other big stocks have SSFs. Some brokers allow trading them, some dont.
SSFs are offered by onechicago.com and you can read up on them there and also see which securities have them (only high vol, high mkt cap generally).
I trade stocks mostly through SSFs (you gain leverage if you want it, but the spread and volume is lower).
Just thought this might be useful info.
DISCLAIMER: *not* investing advice. Buyer beware. You are responsible for your own actions.
--TZguy
Gary,
ReplyDeleteMy target buy on SLW is $21-22 in the next 8 days.
I'll be in on the party eventually even though I'm a degenerate shorter and *all* I do is bet against massive bull markets *all* the time and never, never, EVER go long on anything :-)
--TZguy
At what price level is this 3 year cycle low supposed to be? Of course it's possible the dollar doesn't make a new low, anything is possible in the markets. If the dollar is in a new bull trend, then by definition it's going to make higher highs.
ReplyDeleteTZ,
ReplyDeleteThis fasination with leverage is going to eventually cost you your account.
I've seen it happen 100% of the time.
Justin,
ReplyDeleteIf the dollar is in a new bull it will make higher highs but it is still going to put in a 3 year cycle low and that low is not going to come in above 90. The most likely scenario if the dollar is in a new bull would be to test the 71 low at the 3 year cycle low.
Gary,
ReplyDeleteYou are perceiving a manner of trading which I don't engage in. My max X numbers are only for factual discussion.
I'm sorry you think 1x is the *only* method of trading a bull.
What about 1.1x? 1.2x? 1.3x? Never? Maybe? Sometimes?
Well, I simply think it is above 1x and below 3x. Moving closer to 3x depends on limiting risk and not being stupid of course and going to that number is a rare event.
I've been around too. I appreciate your concern. If you don't like leverage, don't use it.
--TZguy
TZGuy,
ReplyDeleteIf you do not want to be misunderstood, then why do you insist on posting your shorting strategies on this blog and keep justifying them?
If you wish to short whatever, please go ahead and do it. Not sure if many of us here on the blog care though.
On this blog, Gary shares his strategy and philosophy - cycles, sentiment and never shorting the bull market in gold and about leverage. We may agree or disagree or may wish to clarify. But if you need to do something different, do you really need to tell us about it?
Please go ahead with our blessings so we can move on to other things more relevant to this blog - like how to stay in this bull market without getting sidetracked.
Tz,
ReplyDeleteSlw hit it's target from the cup and handle breakout today, so at least you finally have one arrow in your quiver. Fundamentals will sometimes bull right over a technical though.
I've decided I can't help people who get misundersood in things. I walk around and it seems to be a lot of people in life. The best to them.
ReplyDeleteAs for SLW, it is a primary security we all pretty much watch, hold, and discuss. Comments (even if unliked by people who are long) that something might be overbought and ready for a pause are relevant and useful to discuss. Others are trying to buy or protect or whatnot. If everybody is on the "but it regardless of price" bandwagon all the time with no counter discussion then there is a information vacuum.
May I alternately suggest that if a particular post seems of no interest to *you* that you just skip over it. It will be hard in a public forum for each and every post to be happy and relevant to YOU each and every time. Sorry.
--TZ
I had a muffin for breakfast. Who cares.
ReplyDeleteTZ, ditto to what anon just said.
peter
That post to ANON "September 7, 2010 8:26 AM "
ReplyDelete--TZ
UUP MA's may be different, as I only watch continous contract in DX
ReplyDeleteFrank
Gary,
ReplyDeleteIt is not my intention to clutter or degrade your site should you view that as a result of my contributions.
I watch as you handle similar bickering where anon people come and go talking about things like muffins or whatnot.
If you personally think my posts don't contribute or you don't want to discuss something like SLW let met know and I'll have no problem deferring.
--TZ
Unless someone is cursing or blatantly abusive I will never censor the blog.
ReplyDeleteI actually welcome counter trend comments and even welcome the many perma-bear views.
The troll meter did prove to be a very valuable bottom timing tool :)
Hi gary,
ReplyDeleteSilver has broken the 19.5/20 resistance, can we add to our positions in silver.
regards
You can add to silver at any time. It has a long way to go before the C-wave is done.
ReplyDeleteBut if you are asking me will you be safe entering now and not have to weather a drawdown, I'm sorry my crystal ball is still broken :)
Gary, are you planning on exiting AGQ "a little sooner" before your C wave tops? Am assuming it is ok to buy AGQ @ these levels and it will also break significantly above its all time highs.
ReplyDeleteI will briefly go over my exit plans in tonights report. How's that?
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteYou wrote "I will briefly go over my exit plans in tonights report. How's that?"
Good plan! Looking forward to reading it. I suspect it will help lots of subscribers (new and old alike) breathe a little easier to know something about the exit plan.
I'm buying ZSL if SLV can fall under $19. Using a one order triggers all - conditional order - to short SLV (1 share), and buy maybe 200 shares of ZSL. Using SLV merely as a trigger for the ZSL buy order - I don't just want SLV to close the gap, but I want to enter UNDER the gap up (island play - sign of reversals). Will leave the order open to execute this week. If it doesn't execute, then Silver will continue higher to make higher highs. AT that point, we'll simply wait for the next opp (which WILL come).
ReplyDeletepH14
Yeah Gary ....Exit plans sounds perfect! We have "checked in" and after all, "checking out" (exiting) is more important! :)
ReplyDeleteWhat exit plan? Last time I checked it wasn't April? :-)
ReplyDeleteEveryone seems to think the bottom is in on this cycle. Let me tell you all something: if the Republicans don't take the control away from the Dems in Congress, this market will head south in a hurry.
ReplyDelete...some experience from a guy who's been around awhile.
There is no question the intermediate cycle bottomed in July. When it will top is the only question.
ReplyDeleteI tend to think it will better the August high and maybe test the April highs.
The perma-bears are convinced that the marekt is going to hit 950 by the weekend. ;)
Hi all,
ReplyDeleteCan someone please give me a good ETF for silver and gold that trades on the canadian stock exchange. I usually trade only US stocks but the exchange they charge you takes away alot of any profits i might make. Thanks.
Gary,
ReplyDeleteI don't know if this can be observed. Would it be accurate to measure, if and any SOS in the USD, as a potential for big money to be running from the buck.
@ Canada ANON
ReplyDeleteCGL
IGT
svr.un
sbt.un
cef.a
xgd
big miners based in canada all have specific tickers.
Gary: whether or not the stock market bottomed in July has yet to be seen. If we close above 1320 on the SPY, then bears should hibernate.
ReplyDeleteAlso note, some hedge in US dollars some do not.
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteAre you saying we have the odds that gold break august high and dips to april high?
Gary,
ReplyDeleteWhere did you hear the perma-bears believe the market will drop to 950 by the weekend?
Rod
Rod:
ReplyDeleteGary was being sarcastic. He didn't hear that, he's simply pointing out that perma bears think the sky is falling.
Sing,
ReplyDeleteI was talking about the stock market.
Anon,
No there is no doubt at this point the intermediate cycle bottomed in July.
Certainly at some point we are going to drop below that as this is a secular bear market. I'm just not convinced it is going to be in the immediate future.
Friday's close looking like a bull trap.
ReplyDeleteI doubt it. We just got a little overbought and there is a gap on the chart that needed to fill.
ReplyDeleteUntil we start to see somw large SOS I doubt this market is done.
Sentiment on gold is heating up, it appears.
ReplyDeleteToo much excitement?
Commentary: Gold timers may be too excited for their own good
Not surprising given the consistent rise from the intermediate bottom and lack of any large retracement. We may be due for a good shake out as we test the highs. No surprise to most here, I'm sure.
I sure would like to see gold break through to a new high first though, to alleviate concerns about the cycle phasing (as expressed by Tim Wood).
The thing is, if that were the case nothing would every be able to make new highs because sentiment always turns bullish as it makes new highs.
ReplyDeleteThe public opinion poll is still a long way from reaching the kind of bullish extreme that triggers intermediate tops and the bullish percentage level is only at a modest 67%. A far cry form the +85% that has been seen at other tops.
Also consider that the HUI is only 11% above the 200 DMA. At big C-wave tops we can see it stretched 40, 50 maybe even 60% above the mean. Miners are hardly stretched by any definition of the word yet.
I would tend to go with the cycles and this one is still a bit early to be topping. Today was only day 9 and we should see all daily cycles be right translated during this intermediate cycle.
So we should rally at least to day 11 or 12 before the next move down into the daily cycle low.
If we could get a minor pullback to reset short term sentiment a bit we could easily see gold rally to day 15 or 20 before topping.
Hmmm, the silver space was down, while the gold space continues higher.
ReplyDeleteI'm showing every major silver miner positive for the day by an average of 1 to 1 1/2 percent???
ReplyDeleteSorry G, I was actually looking at SIL vs. GDXJ, which is odd to be down when the majority of it's holdings are the bigger names in the silver space.
ReplyDeleteMostly though, I just like saying "space". :)
Gary, just curious, what is a typical D-wave? how long does it last, how brutal is it?
ReplyDeletethanks
-Tom
To put it in simple terms a D-wave typically corrects about 50% of the previous C-wave.
ReplyDeleteThe thing with Mark Hulbert and sentiment is he's looking at gold writers who reco'd mainly gold stocks and the stocks have been range bound for nearly 3 years.Eventually(maybe soon) they'll BO and sentiment won't mean nearly as much. I have to believe also that the writer's may be bullish but their subscribers are not psycologically able to buy 100% positions here after having been burned the last few years.The whole mantra for the goldies the last 3 years has been if ya can't scare them out you wear them out with price action.
ReplyDeleteFrank
I would also point out Hulbert's sentiment data is only good for short term moves.
ReplyDeleteThe public sentiment poll is still dead neutral with a long way to go yet before reaching the kind of extremes where we could run out of buyers.
TZ,
ReplyDeleteI feel like a recovering alchoholic who needs Gary's help to kick the habit (of trying to time the stock and gold bull market doing short term trades). After seeing the huge moves in PMs recently, I suddenly get the old urge to get off the bull and maybe even short it on overbought conditions. Then this is part where Gary comes in to remind me that the risk is to the upside, don't sweat drawdowns, and that the bull will correct our timing mistakes.
But then you come along feeling the need to fill the "information vacuum" you referred to by telling me where the nearest liquor store is and the wonderful selecton of booze they have. It does not help us recovering alchololics. We need to kick that habit. That is why we are on this blog.
But still if you need to satisfy the urge to post a counter argument, a single post will do. The point is noted. Vacuum filled. Anything more and it starts sounding like a broken recording.
And telling us about the strike price of your SLW puts is like telling a recovering alcholic like myself where to find great deals on booze.
But since you are long 99.99% of the time, why spend 99.99% of your posts on the short side.
Any post from you to help me kick my addiction will be most welcome though TZ :-)
Recovering Alchoholic
Hi. My name is Alex and I'm an alcoholic. I blew out my account during the crash playing with options. What Anon 5:09 says is right on target. TZ needs to FO in a big way.
ReplyDeletehmmmmm
ReplyDeleteLong Gold and long USD/or 30 year sure still looking like the best trade.
At least today..... again
I'll agree with you on the first one but I won't waste time & capital on the other two :)
ReplyDeleteLet anon1 keep sucking the last fumes of the bond bull. They'll hold up longer than most think, and even have impressive rallies at times, but the high was put in last year.
ReplyDeleteNot yet time to short 'em hard, but buying worthless government IOU's has very limited upside.
Just to let folks know I still exist. I just haven't had a damn thing worth saying! The VIX just hit its lower BB which Friday is bearish, but the surveys show precious few bulls, which is bullish. My stuff is dead neutral. I've been adding to my moderate gold position on dips, but otherwise am pretty flat. Hopefully we'll get a move at some point that I can see to trade. Hope everyone is having fun with the long PM's.
ReplyDeletegary
ReplyDeletewhen we subscribe, what happens? we pay thru paypal, and then you email us a login information?
fyi
correct. If you don't get the login info check your spam filters.
ReplyDeletei just subscribed... so you're going to give us 15 months this time? looking forward to getting login info soon...
ReplyDeletewooo HOOO! Gold closed at all time highs and she's up again today! LOL! :)
ReplyDeleteTZ,
ReplyDeleteThis is just an observation.
After a 3 month consolidation SLW rallied $4 above the Jan. 10 highs into the middle of May.
This consolidation since that high at $22 was made has lasted almost 3 months. A simliar $4 move would send SLW to $26 before the next corrective action.
Silver is also breaking out above $20. The next resistance level is at $21. There is enough time yet on gold's daily cycle for silver to hit #21 before the daily cycle corrective move begins.
If you insist on trying to short the strongest stock in the entire sector at least improve your odds by waiting until it hits some kind of resistance level (silver that is. There is no resistance level in SLW other that the forces of regression to the mean).
Had a piece of cheese for breakfast today. Mighty tasty.
ReplyDeleteActually, upon further thought, i figure when TZ stops telling us he bought 1 contract for 21$ SLW puts will be the time to start taking off some of the leverage. So far he's 0 fer 2 , the perfect indicator for short term direction.
What are we doing today ?
I figure the only reason a guy , with considerable experience as you put it, tells people he made a small short, is so he can tell us how bright he is later. Point is , you aleady blew that opportunity.
Cheers
Peter
Gary and everyone,
ReplyDeleteIs there any chart shows the complete secular bull of gold in 1977-1980 as Stockchart does? Stockchart start from 1980 only.
I'm having some homemade sausage and two farm fresh eggs on toast for breakfast and it's gonna be tasty, too!
ReplyDeletePeter's right about TZ's need for recognition. Short 'em if you want to, but nobody here cares so no need for commenting on a "contra" trade 50x/day. I prefer to do whatever it takes to stay focused on the bull.
You can find lots of historical charts here.
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteThank you so much! It is useful.
Hi,
ReplyDeleteRecovering Alchoholic here.
I hope my earlier post did not discourage TZ and others from posting contrary views as I have found those discussions very useful.
I think contrary views about whether or not Gary's methods are superior to short term trading are useful for discussion. They help clarify Gary's methods and raises my conviction to let go of my old bad habits.
On various occassions, I found the issues raised by Justin and Pimacanyon for example quite insightful.
On other occassions, although the posts were not directly relevant to me, at least they were relevant to the goal of this blog.
But what I think may not be useful on this blog are posters going on in gory details about those same bad habits we are trying to avoid -like shorting a bull market.
Surpises DO come on the upside in bull markets. BOING!!
ReplyDeleteThanks for the email update, G. I'm going to take your advice here, always appreciated (and profitable). :)
ReplyDeleteA very possible scenario with gold in the weeks ahead could be that we rise into the upsloping line of higher highs for the past year and many will label it a rising wedge. The way I would interpret it is that we would still have a leg E down in an ABCD triangle with E being short and not quite connecting with the bottom uptrend before blasting upward(I hope:)It would provide a consolidation point for this move but can shake many off.
ReplyDeleteFrank
Sorry for bad link.
ReplyDeletehttp://yfrog.com/5ugc1982btmg
are we in here?
ReplyDeletehttp://yfrog.com/5ugc1982btmg
No way of telling.
ReplyDeleteI suspect we still have 3 to 8 more years of this bull. Once the Dow:gold ratio hits 1:1 it will be time to sell.
Gary,
ReplyDeleteFrom your email.
Is this good for the miners only, or are we still good for silver to piggy back on this.
Thanks
I'm concentrating on silver myself.
ReplyDeleteAs am I. Wanted to verify your beliefs that a HUI miner breakout would help silver and silver miners as well. So thanks.
ReplyDeleteShorts can say goodbye to yesterday's gains, they're getting a face-rake again.
ReplyDeleteGDX/HUI backing off resistance and gold struggling a bit. But silver complex seems to be outperforming.
ReplyDeleteSP500 seems to be forming a bull flag.
Dangerous time to be short.
It is amusing some of you think I don't have skills and that I'm also a contrary indicator.
ReplyDelete--TZ
Best of luck to everybody regardless. I expect to be adding to SLW long significantly next week.
ReplyDelete--TZ
I just had some eggs and some bacon. Coffee was a little hot, but the milk cooled it down.
ReplyDeleteNo toast with the eggs?
ReplyDeleteActually skills is not what is going to make you rich in this bull market. I do not need to be a genius to make money in a bull. What I need is the grim determination to hang on.
ReplyDeleteNo the toast got burnt and I ran out of bread. I was thinking about going to the store to get some more, but didn't bother.
ReplyDeletePatience did turn Buffett into one of the richest men in the world :)
ReplyDeleteI expect it will be our most valuable asset in the coming months.
I believe, TZ, that you have said something like "I wait and wait and when I finally buy a correction often starts." That's what makes you a contrary indicator. You act when your emotions take over and you can't stand it any more. That's exactly what makes tops and bottoms. As best as I can tell from your numerous posts, you will probably give up shorting the bull near an important top after a string of losses. When you give up trying to short that'll probably be a sign of an impending correction.
ReplyDeleteBuffett also talks about patience in waiting for the right pitch from the market before swinging. A good pitch is coming next week I suspect for those who missed the last one.
ReplyDeleteI'm having tacos for breakfast.
-TZ
Good to be reminded.
ReplyDeleteSkill did not help me very much before. Or perhaps I do not have much skill to begin with :-)
So I will have to give patience a try. Seems to be working so far!
I am getting more comfortable with cold (er I mean *old*) turkey!
DG,
ReplyDeleteI have a small SLW put position due to it's technicals - it is a side bet. The last time I bought any short position of any kind was a year ago. I already have a larger long position than most people posting and I'm sitting on it and making money along with everybody else. I will be adding to it next week.
I don't know where you have gotten your impressions.
--TZ
TZ,
ReplyDeleteMaybe if you talked more about your major long positions instead of your minor side bet short, people will not have a wrong impression of you.
Did you not say what I said you said about "when I finally buy..."? Also, I agree with RA. You spend so much time talking about an irrelevant position it's hard not to be confused by your posts. Why do you spend so much time on what is just statistical noise? I have lots of little things I do I never post about...who cares? Maybe post when you have something significant to say so it doesn't seem like you are so wrapped up in minutiae (?) Just a thought.
ReplyDeleteRA,
ReplyDeleteMy attempt to contribute some *short term* comments on SLW for people who are still looking to get in or increase their position was misconstrued (and then extended like a playground rumor) into me being a shorter against gary or the essence of the gold bull. I can't help that.
There isn't much to say in being long and sitting. But for trying to add slw my comment has been it is showing dangerous signs of exhaustion here and the best add is probably next week at 21-22 (which is also the reason for the puts at 22.5 expiring next friday).
That is obviously an opinion and I could be wrong, but it definitely doesn't rationally warrant conclusions of those (usually anonymous) who think I'm an anti gold guy or some massive shorter in the market. It is a prudent and cautious market observation about SLW.
--TZ
DG,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the useful advice. Point taken. Beyond the comment just left on SLW I will refrain going forward.
--TZ
TZ,
ReplyDeleteI do not think I (or anyone else)have a quibble with you about having a different opinion. And I hope you continue to share those because I find it useful.
I think it is more your focus on what DG described as minutae that was distracting and somewhat irritating.
And even if SLW pulls back, does it really make a difference if we get a slightly better entry in the larger scheme of things.
If memory serves, Richard Dennis (in Michael Covel's book) says in a trending market, waiting for a pullback is a fool's game. You may just miss a huge upside move. You may be fully invested as am I, but others may not be. And waiting for a pull back may mean some hair pulling for these guys :-)
I'm looking to add to my PM positions too. Already have a very good core position. So for me, I'll wait and add on any dips we get.
ReplyDeleteAs a subscriber, I'm straight Old Turkey (and up 190% since July '09) but like most of us, I still like to read various opinions on the precious metals market. I thought this one paralleled your outlook as closely as I'be seen:
ReplyDeletehttp://goldswitzerland.com/index.php/gold-entering-a-virtuous-circle-egonvongreyerz/
Best of luck to you all at hanging on to this C-Wave...little or no leverage, add at daily and intermediate cycle lows, and don't let your emotions get involved
Boring is smart. Cheers!
Excellent results, anon. Congrats!
ReplyDeleteGold Corp (GG) is down around that $42 level. Is this a buy or not?
ReplyDeleteI don't know anything about GG specifically, but a stock that "ought" to be acting well that isn't is usually one to avoid. In fact a great tell is when bad news comes out and a stock goes up (shows all the selling is done and priced in). Conversely if good stuff is happening and a stock can't rally...?With the whole PM sector rallying like crazy you have to wonder whether the sellers in GG know something.
ReplyDeleteGoldcorp is trading heavy lately because of a high-premium bid for Andean Resources.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.canadianbusiness.com/markets/headline_news/article.jsp?content=b4394654
Didn't that same thing happen to Kinross Gold (KGC) just a bit ago? Look at Kinross now!
ReplyDeleteGG is going to at least $40.
ReplyDeleteSPY is going to 950.
GDX has topped near term and is headed to $51.50
Wow! When do you see this happening?
ReplyDeleteAh, ol' 950 is back, devoid of any specific reasons (again).
ReplyDeleteA 20-40 point pullback here would be reasonably healthy after such a big move in recent weeks. More than that would be a concern, but it seems premature to suggest a big drop is in the offing.
Why we will go to 950, I don't expect we will hear.
I've told you folks many times that the 950 area is the breakout from Summer 2009. We have yet to re-test that area. It will likely take many weeks, if not months for it to develop (who knows for sure). But it will happen, and in my opinion, warrants a great set up for the bulls when it happens.
ReplyDeleteRight now we are stuck in a descending triangle on the SPY between 104 and 111 from a weekly perspective. It is only getting tighter...the break (whichever direction) will initially be very strong. I think it breaks lower and Gary thinks the bear returns during the October-November cycle lower. Perhaps the triangle breaks downward to the 950 area during that time...if so he will also be right.
Gary, In my opinion we are on the cusp of another gold bounce, a dive in stocks, or some combination of both. I belive your ride will begin very soon. This is a most recent dow/gold ratio chart.
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/NmU5N2I1M
Another ratio worth mentioning would be the gold/silver ratio. You can see that support has broken and it is falling quickly.
http://screencast.com/t/MmYxOTg0Nz
My apologies, 950, those were reasons.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure I buy it, but laying out a rationale sure beats just popping up and saying 950 whenever the market settles 10 points.
Looks like there's some SPY selling on strength and some big techs buying on weakness occurring.
ReplyDeleteI love these guys who say "Like I've told you..." and stick with posting as one of 100 "anonymous" poster. as if people are supposed to keep track. They are too lazy or shy to get a pseudonym, but expect readers to catalogue their random thoughts. Next best thing is watching them argue with each other as they get confused as to which nameless wonder is responding to which other nameless wonder.
ReplyDeleteDG, I wish Gary had a comment system so I could like you. That is a great one!
ReplyDeleteJust sold 1250 QLD based on short term overbought.
ReplyDeleteI hope I can replace these at a lower price shortly.