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Friday, September 24, 2010

Alright I've had enough of the troll investation for the time being. If you want to comment on the blog you will have to create a google account.

57 comments:

  1. Probably worth the test, Gary. That will limit the blog to useful exchanges rather than name-calling stuff. If it starts to feel too restrictive, you can open it up again. Thanks. I am tired of feeling I need to take a shower after hunting for the useful stuff.

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  2. I like it.

    :-)

    Have a great weekend, Gary and all posters here!

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  3. Yes. Much better. No trolls. Notice that SSRI took a hit over one percent even though silver is having a big up day.

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  4. Yes--
    Noticed a little weakness in GDX GDXJ and HUI as gold and silver up?
    Daily wiggles Gary? (or is this somewhat forecasting the SMALL correction coming in PM's)

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  5. It's definitely due so perhaps it is forecasting a correction next week.

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  6. About time, Gary; no need for you to have the patience of a Buddhist monk, sir!

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  7. Thanks for the change Gary. I've been a subscriber for almost two years, and enjoy the blog during the day - but it was really starting to get to me. I'm straight Old Turkey - no trading, buy on cycle lows, less than 20% leverage. I have learned to just ride the bull, look for the common consolidation and cycle patterns, and enjoy watching them play out.

    My wife and I just bought our first house this week, and with the new lending requirements we had to show everything financially. When the loan officer saw that I was up over $1M this year alone, he asked if I could manage his portfolio. It's funny when a 55 year old is telling that to a guy half his age. Kudos on your dedication and patience. All the best, and looking forward to the "new" comments section.

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  8. Gary,

    I´m thinking about signing up for the premium site, but what is the difference between the subscribe and the buy now paypal buttons?

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  9. BUY NOW is a one time charge.

    The Subribe button will auto renew when your subscription is due.

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  10. I'll try to contribute more as well here now, as the discussion should be more civilized. Here's my "basket" of miners since early 2009 for those interested or new to the site:

    AAU
    ANV
    AZK
    CDE
    EXK
    FRG
    GSS
    HL
    MVG
    NG
    NGD
    NXG
    SLW
    SSRI
    SVM
    TGB
    UXG

    Not a recommendation list by any means, just my basket. It's silver-heavy, with a much larger weighting to small caps over large caps. It has outperformed gold and GDX like Gary predicted. All the best.

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  11. Not much to add.

    I guess I can get on board too.

    Gary I am presuming that your confidence in a correction has increased, since you took your leverage off. (Before you had mentioned you wouldn’t bother) Is this a fair statement?

    Nothing wrong with changing your views and after today's assault I wouldn't suggest it, but I was curious to your reasoning.

    Thanks Coach!

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  12. Turkey, Thanks for sharing. I loaded up back in April so I took the draw-down for 2-3 months. That was like a junky withdraw for me. But Mid-July a could see and feel things turning for me, or as Gary has stated -- a bull market will always correct for your entry.

    The wife is starting to ask on a daily bases how my stocks are doing. That's quite a feet for her to start to be interested in investments. Oh, no! maybe she wants to know when to make her stinking meatloaf again. lol

    Have a great weekend all...

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  13. Fair question. I just don't like how stretched silver is above the 200 day moving average so I changed my mind and decided to take down margin.

    I don't like the fact that all they talk about lately on the business channels is gold either.

    I'm really hoping we see a correction to cool off sentiment a bit. And I would really like it to be larger than 40 points so we don't have to deal with a runaway move.

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  14. These runaway moves aren't bugging me at all. The dollar is well on it's way to becoming worthless...just be patient, I'm working on it. :)

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  15. Thanks Gary! Big improvement.

    Do you expect the D-wave before May 12? That's when my positions qualify for long-term capital gains.

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  16. B,
    I do expect gold will be in a D-wave by then.

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  17. SLW scares me the most...but we do seem due. But what do I know, I am not a trader, well not a good one anyways.

    Have a great week-end all! Have a good time with that meatloaf!

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  18. Nice move Gary. The conversation already has a more useful/cordial tone.

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  19. I posted a couple of comments at the bottom of the last comments section before I realized I was talking to myself.

    One was on why I think gold is doing so well.

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  20. I am expecting/hoping that we get a shakeout soon, hopefully a capitulation below the previous all-time high to scare any weak hands that have dabbled in precious metals for the first time. It would be an opportunity to shut down the main stream media and generate some "bull trap" comments around the Internet on this new high. Today's move is the kind that gets the retail guy on board because he's afraid the train is leaving and then he suffers a nasty drawdown. Us strong hands could care less, but I still prefer the wall of worry moves up instead of the runaways.

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  21. The biggest challenge I feel we face as gold bulls is how we handle the end of this c-wave. I don't know if its going to take the form of a two part mid point consolidation move or an abcde wave. I am inclined to sell at a capitulation volume top that is characterized by an outperformance of silver and extreme stretching above the moving averages. The tough part is do we sell just the big caps or sell everything. There is a good chance that as the explorers/small caps get cheap towards the end of the d wave that they will be scooped up at very nice premiums, and being out of the market we'll miss those moves as we wait for the d wave to end. Also, where to put my cash during the d wave as the dollar rebounds out of the 3 year low - maybe in a dollar up etf or a money market/cd if bonds crater and rates go up. I'm planning to use the next a/b wave to get to long-term capital gain status on miners again and avoid using leverage until the end of b to avoid the margin interest. Hopefully the d/a/b combo will kill sentiment before what I think will be a c wave of the "dot com" variety.

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  22. I have a pretty good idea what to look for at the C-wave top although I'm usually a little early.

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  23. Gary, are you going to run any more specials for the premium site?

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  24. I wasn't really planning on it. I gave everyone two chances to get on board at the two best opportunities to do so timing wise.

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  25. I already like the new feel Gary. Hopefully it will keep things a bit more productive.

    I know you've said in the past that SoS numbers for GLD don't mean much but the last few times we approached daily cycle tops AFTER BIG MOVES the SoS numbers were fairly predictive of a downturn. Same for intermediate cycles. Today's GLD SoS number doubled yesterday's so I think you're right about a pending correction, even if a small one.

    Flushing out some of the weak hands would be gravy!

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  26. Thank You Gary! I really think we can have a constructive community here without the BS that was here lately. I appreciate discussions in all investment areas, but we were really getting over the top.

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  27. Much better Gary. I was getting tired of the trolls and quit reading the blog today because of it.

    I really enjoy the civilized discussions.

    Have a great weekend all!

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  28. http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/

    Just picked up this site. A nice set of data for the deflationist in all of us. Rereading the FMOC statement, sure does seem like another round of QE coming our way. Complete havoc, if any indication to what QE1 was able to do.

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  29. Maybe someone already asked:

    What if the daily cycle low was Sept 10?
    It was 32 days after the last low.

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  30. GG,
    Anything is possible and I'll admit this cycle has thrown us a little curve ball to make things a little more interesting but I don't like to assume something stretched past the "normal" timing band until I have to.

    The most logical place for this cycle to top is right here with everything mashed up against resistance.

    This is where the majority of profit takers are going to come in and it just happens to be late in the cycle. The combination of those two should give us a dip down into a cycle low next week.

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  31. I guess Im the only one who doesnt think gold will be pulling back.
    Worst case is the high 1280s, best case, we tag 1340ish next week. I think this is a run away move and those trying to be cute with this trade will be left behind...
    FWIW

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  32. If anyone is listening then all they have done is take down leverage. I'm still 100% invested. and no one should touch their core position yet.

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  33. Gary:

    Regarding the possibility of a runaway move (that's what I'm expecting); It seems that the intermediate low in December would still be a high probability play with elections coming in Nov and a likely shift toward a Republican majority at leat in the House, and possibly in the Senate. It seems people absurdly associate Rebuplicans with fiscal responsibility, and this may provide an oppty for a quick and significant pullback in the PMs. Of couse, many are telegraphing this outcome for the trade, so it is less likely to occur. It does make sense, on a pedestrian media hype level, though.

    Its another of the crazy media foibles of late....the Republicans are assumed to be the bastions of fiscal responsibility. Its obvious to me that there is simply lip service by the party out of power to state what people want to hear, but once they are in office, the weak economy and horrible jobs picture will have them leaning on the printing presses as well, in the hope of staving off continued economic weakness, and to stay elected. Can they really be so blind? Don't they know a cleanse is coming?

    And can the public really be so blind? Do we forget (or conveniently ignore) that our national debt was doubled with a Republican president and congress?

    The opptys to be contrarian are only getting easier. And for those who don;t realize it, the two party's are beconming one in their policies. Its the rhetoric that sets them apart. Sheesh.

    Mitch

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  34. Aaron,
    I has taken gold 3 weeks to put on the last $40. Why do you think it will all of a sudden do the same in a week?

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  35. gary

    do you mean to say in your weekend report is that even though you expect the dollar to tag 78.5, you still expect gold to correct?

    fyi

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  36. Yep I expect the combination of resistance and being in the timing band for a cycle low will overpower a weak dollar.

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  37. Gary,

    I like what you did to the place!

    I can already smell the fresh air and hope this continues!

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  38. I do miss TZ,though. Hopefully he'll pony up and get a Google acct.

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  39. Gary,

    You mentioned in your reports that cycle analysis is useless in runaway moves.
    Why is this so?

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  40. So what drives runaway moves? Something fundamental like a currency collapse?

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  41. The move is often so powerful that it overwhelms the normal cyclical tendencies and sentiment extremes.

    Look at what happened from July 06 to March 07. The intermediate cycle lasted 34 weeks long. Normal is 20-25. There was one two month period where there was almost no corrective moves at all.

    Like I said a total cyclical mess.

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  42. It could be fundamental which i think will be the case with gold as the dollar collapses.

    It can be momentum.

    Or it can be the rebound from extreme sentiment levels, which was the case in 06.

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  43. When you look at how gold is performing elsewhere it looks like there'll only be a runaway move in USD terms if the dollar continues to fall at a rapid rate to a low value.

    Looking at this chart:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p09393074372

    which compares gold in USD with gold in euros - and USD gold compared with the CRB index - it doesn't look as exciting.

    In other words, it appears that gold's current value is steady against most currencies and therefore not being perceived as a candidate for a runaway move.

    The US price is apparently compensating for the lower dollar....

    Steve Saville yesterday pointed out the possibility that the divergence between gold in euros and in dollars could indicate a drop in the global price - as was seen last June [see the chart].

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  44. John
    You are conviently overlooking that from July of last year to june of this year gold had a huge parabolic run in terms of the Euro...and just about every other currency.

    Gold is moving in all currencies. A C-wave is a C-wave even if it does arrive at a sligthly different pace in other currencies.

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  45. @fusby

    I don't like to comment on politics because I don't think it usually makes you any money. But I think there is a complete misread of the mood of the people in general and the Tea Parties in particular.

    I don't think they give a darn whether someone is a Dem or Republican, they are voting for anyone who will stop the spending.

    Gold investors might want to take note of this mood. Right now this is benefiting the Republicans for obvious reasons, but even the big spending Republicans (think NH) are being turned out.

    I'm thinking this mood will ultimately change the spending habits of the nation big time.

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  46. I seriously doubt it.

    Why? Because when things get bad, all the people that were in favor of Tea party principles that have lost their job will do a 180 so fast it will make your head spin.

    All people are motivated by short term pain. It's not just politicians. The only way to stop what's coming is to fundamentally change human nature...maybe that will be something the biotech industry can work on :)

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  47. Gary,

    Only 10% of the people are unemployed. The normal number in good times is 6%.

    Just how much difference do you think 4% of the people will make ?

    I think you're misreading this.

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  48. Gary, the reason for that is because I feel like the beat down in the dollar hasnt shown up in gold like it should have due to the option expiration on Monday. If we blast through 1300, I feel like all those who were waiting for a pullback will be chasing it, and thats why it might keep powering forward.
    I reall think this is a runaway move, specially with the way the dollar and the snp are acting.

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  49. Well the real unemployment/underemployment nuber is about 15% but it's going to get a lot worse when the next crisis hits.

    We just had the largest debt bubble in history. You don't escape that without a depression. No matter what governments do we are going to have to suffer through a depression. Now we are just dertermining how bad they want to make it by trying to avoid it.

    So far it's looking like it's going to be really bad. Instead of a feflationary depression we are going to go the other way and have a severe inflationary or most likely eventually a hyperinflationary depression.

    So not only will unemployment be very high but so will the price of everything one needs to live (food & energy).

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  50. Aaron,
    I think you are mistaking a runaway move with a parabolic move. It's still too early for gold to move into the parabolic stage. that will come later this spring when the dollar is in full blown crisis mode.

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  51. I guess Im kind of in the middle then, I just cant see gold pull back below the mid 1280s, yet I see that it could easily power upwards... not saying explosive, but 1380-1400 by the end of October. Personally, I dont consider 7% in one month a parabolic move.

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  52. Why I like this stock market


    I do not share the pessimism about the stock market that seems to be common on this board. In fact, I'm bullish. Here are two reasons why.

    A proprietary valuation model has been developed by Don Hays of Haysmarketfocus.com. This model has 5 levels of market valuation with level 5 being most overvalued.

    He has back tested this model going back to the early 1900's, and has found that the valuation model reached level 5 on every occasion before a bear market, and there have been no bear markets without this happening beforehand.

    This indicator currently is at level 1, the most undervalued level it is capable of measuring.

    In addition, a few days ago the Leading Economic Indicator Index showed the result for August to be + 0.3. The LEI, developed by the Conference Board has been shown to be one of the most reliable indicators of future economic activity in the US.

    There was no fanfare when the August result was announced, just as there had been no fanfare when the results of the other 16 months since the first of 2009 had been announced.

    Of these 17 LEI results, only one has been negative.

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  53. First off I don't know how you could have got the idea that I was bearish. I've been expecting the market to at least test the April highs if not exceed them.

    On the other hand Hay's propreitary valuation model is pure nonsense. On a historical basis using trailing P/E's the market is at best moderatly overvalued.

    Trust me I heard all this ridiculous undervaluation baloney at the 07 top too. Not to say we are at a top but Hay's is dead wrong if he thinks the market is undervlued especially with the unresolved credit issue's and brewing currency crisis just over the horizon.

    We will be undervalued when P/E's reach single digits and dividends are above 5 just like every other secular bear market in history and trust me this one is going to be no different than any other long term bear no matter how much Hay's would like you to think otherwise.

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  54. WES,

    Discussing AVERAGES of P/E ratios is like saying the average of gold last decade is $700 - it isn't a very useful measure to either discuss or make money from. What is relevant are lows or highs of significance that can be bought or sold. I don't want to get into the whole interest rate thing, but Gary is right regarding how this will end. Valuations will continue to grind down until the exesses are wrung out and PE's return to single digits.

    It will help all to visualze here
    http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/SWENLIN.html
    (bookmark..it updates continually)

    The first chart is the one that matters, the second is peak earnings valuation which I think it's useful.

    You will see that NOW...*ten* years after the stock market peaked, it is STILL currently at a *worse* valuation than the 1929 peak.

    This situation will most likely not be resolved with a crash (you guys shorting should realize this). It will resolve with a flatline around dow 10k for another decade or so while inflation errodes value and gold catches up.

    --TZ

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