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Friday, September 24, 2010


It's been my expectation that gold would manage to rally at least to $1300 before dropping into the now due daily cycle low. We are now ready to test that theory as gold has tagged $1300 this morning.

The rest of the sector is also mashed right up against all time or bull market highs.

I have my doubts that we will see all these resistance levels broken on the first try. We are also deep into the timing band for a daily cycle correction. This would be the most logical level for a corrective move to initiate from.

If gold is in a runaway move then any correction should hold within a 25 to 40 point range. My thinking is gold should drop about 35 points to test the breakout level at $1265.

A throw back to test the triangle breakout by the HUI would also be a normal corrective move.

Once silver & miners join gold at new highs the entire sector will be trading in a vacuum with no overhead resistance. This will be like throwing gas on the fire. And that is the recipe for huge moves.


  1. Gary,

    I think we can now see the problem with buying the swing low as a trade. It would require buying into a very big gap up.

    This may be the right thing to do, but it's not my style. So far, I have been a seller of 500 QLD into this open.

  2. Well if the swing is marking the low then there is a lot of upside as this would be the first day.

    Saying one won't take that ride simply because the move originated as a gap is kind of like cutting off ones nose to spite their face. The buy would come at the same level whether it originated as a gap or not so your entry is the same either way.

  3. anon1: just for the record...you wrote a little while ago that gold was going to drop because everyone on this blog was bullish. I said gold would not tag 1250 after it's breakout and you said "eek! Not even a 2% drop?! ThaI guess it didn't; not after a major breakout on volume. As well, having people enthused on a gold site about a major breakout is not much of a contrary indicator. Fading this site will not do you any good in a gold bull. Now that gold has grabbed headlines (amazing that it didn't on the breakout), now we can have a dip.

  4. I think we can all agree Anon1 is only interested in disagreeing with someone. Whether or not there is any fundamental or logical reason behind his disagreement is irrelevant to him.

    He's just one of those people that likes to argue :)

  5. I am glad I am here to witness this phenomenal run.

    I wonder if there's an index for diamonds too?

  6. I've just sold another 1000 QLD into this rally.

    I certainly don't feel like this is the smart thing to do, but experience tells that selling strength is right in the long run.

  7. Well said DG!

    But going by the sentiment level on the blog today, it does not appear to be overly bullish even with gold having tagged 1300 this morning.

    Hmmm...so according to anon1 sentiment readings, we may have more upside to go? Let's see...

  8. Gary--do you always use RSI set at 5? Any reason to use a shorter or longer term in this situation. Thanks.

  9. Again, everyone is expecting a pullback, and for it to go to 1265 (the break out). Almost no one is expecting it to rocket higher...should be interesting to say the least


  10. Wes, can you clarify? Selling strength is good if you really are trading day-to-day, but every decent breakout starts with strength, so you don't want to get out of a good position too early lest you cut your winners off before they can blossom. As much of a trader as I myself am, I try to hold if the market confirms my thesis. Are you uncertain of the intermediate term?

  11. TommyD,

    From what I've seen, the diamond market is even more crooked than most. Even the fact they don't trade on an exchange (to add transparency), steers me away from diamonds.

    Supply is heavily controlled making true price discovery impossible, IMO.

  12. Gary ,
    Do you think SPX Yesterday's drop is a head fake to trap the bear??

  13. gary--
    What would be your signal that we have in fact seen the mid-cycle low in SPX? Would it be a rally to new highs?


  14. Hey WrongWayTK,

    There goes your ride! LOL!

  15. DG,

    I'm always uncertain of the short, intermediate and long term of the market.

    Of the 3, I am most confident that the long term for the stock market is up, and I will write more about this in the future.

    We are in a period of overconfidence as reflected by the indicators I follow. In addition, the 5th and 4th days before the end of the quarter have traditionally been weak.

    But, most of all, I'm carrying a lot of long QLD from lower levels and I'm playing the odds that the market will begin to trade in the traditional manner instead of the "strong market" manner it has in the recent past.

    After all, "strong market" conditions are the exception, not the majority.

  16. JD,
    3 day RSI works pretty good for short term moves. 5 day is pretty good when looking of daily cycle tops and bottoms. Intermediate cycles I tend to use 10 day.

    But this is just my personal preference. One could use which ever duration they want.

  17. SB,, of 7:07,
    I am holding RPT and BHP to cover all the other PMs and diamonds. I read on a seeking alpha article a while back that these two companies were very well diverse and should ride out most financial storms. So, I invested 10% in each. I've noticed that these companies do not seam to follow gold and silver nor do they seam to follow the s&p. They are their own beast thus far...

  18. Anon 7:10,
    Of course it was. Dumb money retail traders try to pick tops and bottoms. Smart money follows trends until sentiment reaches extremes or the fundamentals change.

    Neither of those things have happend so it stands to reason that big money would buy the dip. Hence any correction would just be a move to steal a little bit more of the bears capital.

  19. I do think we have probably seen the half cycle low. We do have a swing low.

  20. That is NOT what Justin wanted to hear.

  21. Interesting, the USD is still getting crushed. Do you still expect a bounce in the dollar or do you think we already have a failed retest of 80?

    That ties up nicely with the continuation upwards for stocks, but seems like it may stem any PM correction?

    Or perhaps there will be sideways movement and consolidation for both USD and PMs at these new levels?

  22. Even if the dollar doesn't bounce immediately it is about to move into the timing band for a cycle low next week.

  23. Gary,

    A few days ago you published your piece about a dollar crisis while I was working on the one I posted Wednesday. Last night, I posted about the PM sector running into resistance and then woke up this morning to read this post. Then about an hour ago, I dumped some SLW calls I've been holding, and a few minutes later got your e-mail to subs about taking down leverage.

    I thought I had found all the cameras you planted in my office, but I guess not. Where'd you put that last one? ;-)

  24. LOL I'm out to win me that Mexican dinner.

  25. I guess the only difference is that I sold the SLW calls just because my overall SLW holdings had become an uncomfortably large portion of the Docfolio. I am looking to redeploy that cash rather quickly because I see gold as being on Day 10 of a cycle rather than ready for a decline into a low.

  26. Gary, suppose I am sitting on some decent short-term gains. If I realize them now I am liable for about 35-45% in taxes (depending on the state I live in). What kind of a decline do we need to experience to justify that kind of tax liability? Considering that no one is so smart that he could reenter his positions exactly at the bottom there should be a very serious decline in the miners to justify selling for a short-term gain. Any thoughts?

  27. L,
    The only time I would be willing to sell my core position would be if I thought a D-wave decline was impending. That’s not the case here.

  28. Gary, what do u think about tepper who said this morning that stks may do better than bonds and gold.

  29. He said if the economy improved then stocks would do better than gold.

    First off there is no way for the economy to improve until the next "new" industry comes online and second when the precious metal sector moves into all time highs with no overhead resistance there is virtually 0 chance of any sector outperforming as hot money will come flooding into this sector.

  30. My QLD sales reflect my thought that I will get a better entry point in the future than I have now. I targeted 49.50 on the QQQQ as a good round number temporary top (the high so far has been 49.65).

    If I get a reentry price below my selling price, that would be nice, but really wouldn't make me any money. I have already profited on the trades and am better off planning the next trade than worrying about the perfection of the last selling price.

    I've always liked Damon Runyon's "The race is not always to the swift nor the battle to the strong, but that's the way to bet."

  31. Gary,

    I think we can agree that the past 21 months haven't been particularly kind to the economy.

    Yet, since the start of 2009, the QQQQ has performed as well as GLD.

  32. My point is that stocks (at least the QQQQ) is doing as well as gold even in a bad economy, unlike what you say above.

    I think that stocks will outperform gold in the near term (next 9 months) and, if you are correct, has the added advantage that they can be traded.

  33. And my repsonse is there are too many cross currents in the stock market and I doubt markets are going to go much above the April highs. That is only a 6% gain from today's level.

    I however expect gold to reach at a minimum $1500 before this C-wave ends. That is a 15% gain from current levels.

    That being said why in the world would anyone waste their capital on gold? One needs to own silver and miners because they are undervalued compared to gold.

    We could easily see silver rise 75 to 100% once the breakout occurs and I expect similar moves from miners.

    We are never going to see anything even vaguely close to those kind of gains from the QQQQ's.

  34. DG-

    If you recall - I said I was getting worried. I also said $1319 will bring out the orgy.......

    You need to present the accurate case when trying to make yours, otherwise its the straw man argument.

  35. "I think we can all agree Anon1 is only interested in disagreeing with someone. Whether or not there is any fundamental or logical reason behind his disagreement is irrelevant to him."

    Another straw man argument.

    I have spent plenty of typing on here backing up why I think the way I do, so this statement is just a lie.

    I just think you got a little embarassed that some anon showed you being wrong pretty big last year.

  36. Now why would I be embarassed about being wrong? No one gets every call right. As a matter of fact I clearly stated I only expect to be right 50-60% of the time.

    I even offered to help you find specific wrong calls that I have made over the years. I offered up a few that I could remember off the top of my head.

    I have no problem changing my mind if the market tells me I'm wrong. It told me the deflation theory was wrong so I switched strategies.

    Perhaps you need to do the same. Instead of just getting surly and abusive just reverse your stance and get back to the business of making money.

    That is your goal right...to make money?

  37. Yeah -

    And being long gold and bonds have done just fine this year - thanks.

    And it's a bit more sound than being long 100% gold like you.

    I can be wrong on one and still make money.

    Can you say the same?


    Didnt think so.

  38. I know I know -

    Gold is in a bull market blah blah blah.......

    You are betting you won't be wrong.

    I am not.

    See the irony in that?

  39. There was surprisingly little volume on the comex gold contracts when we crossed 1300. I hate to say it but I don't see signs of a buying capitulation for this move yet.

    I REALLY hate to say it.


  40. 30 years bonds are up about the same as gold year to date......

    wish I could just get back to making money.....

    if only I could see the light and get 100% into gold.


  41. There are a lot of call options on gold (expiring monday afternoon) at 1300, so even if we are not quite finished yet it would seem unlikely we go higher than 1300 until after 1:30pm (eastern) monday.


  42. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=TLT+Interactive#chart3:symbol=tlt;range=ytd;compare=gld;indicator=ema%2850,200%29+split+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

    Look at the YTD tab at the bottom of this chart.

    Now I see why I just have no reasoning in my arguments and just want to argue. I have just been so wrong all year.


  43. TZ,
    I'm not really looking for a capitulation. That wll come at the top of the C-wave. I'm just looking for a minor correction to ease sentiment a bit before the next push higher.

  44. My AGQ position tripled that and it did it in a month instead of a year.

  45. GARY,

    I mean a pause in this move and whatever pullback we get yet.

    The BIG C capitulation is nowhere near. agree


  46. The problem with your arrogance in thinking that you are not wrong (even though you like to think you are humble by saying you admit when you are wrong, your betting 100% on gold is proof of how you view your investment decisions) is that while the bull is here, sure you will do fine. You must also assume you will get out in time.

    You see - I could drive you from San Francisco to LA in 3 hours, when it usually takes 6. That is an amazing run and performance and I would be putting everything on the idea that I would not get in a wreck or get pulled over. If we got there safely, we would all back slap each other and talk about how great our performance was.

    If one bad thing happens though and we get in a wreck - we would be dead.

    Performance is one thing. Risk adjusted performance is another. If you beat the SP500 by 20% a year but take 50% more risk - I would call that a bad risk reward.

    Saying because I am 40% gold and 60% dollars now stupid and me not admitting I am "wrong" if pretty funny to me when I sit back and view it in light of your 100% balls to the wall I am right gold call.

    Both my bonds and gold are up about 17% YTD. Someone 100% in gold is doing no better than I am, yet they are taking on twice the risk is they are wrong.

    Your accusations are absurd.

  47. If the dollar keeps this up, it would be tough to see gold drop below 1280 in my opinion.


  48. For Peter and other Canadiens,


    Seems like the BOC is set to go with the States. Not good news for the CAD and overall inflation in Canada.

  49. Gary,

    You wrote to Anon1 "That is your goal right...to make money?" and I believe you were being sarcastic, suggesting that Anon1 cares more about being right than about making money.

    Carl Futia once commented on how some traders keep trying to be right, but the name of the game of trading and investing is not about being right, it's about making money. Those traders who focus on being right are ironically making a huge mistake (that is, they are being wrong in their attempt to always be right :-)

    No one knows the future, so a good trader/investor has no problem in changing his stance if the market proves him wrong because he knows that it's not about being right, it about being profitable.

    Someone who argues for the sake of argument, for the sake of winning a debate, it usually more interested in being right than being profitable.

  50. SLW keeps on going up.

    One of the dimwits (the one that is particularly anti-gold) on CNBC's Fast Money was pumping the stock the other day. I read that as a potential signal that it is topping but it keeps on going up.

    On the other hand a garbage, speculative Ag miner like MGN is up 41% in the last month while SLW is "only" up 31%. PAAS is up 28%. So you can't really say that SLW is outperforming.

  51. And if they are wrong about gold then your gold position will go down along with everyone else. And if bonds go down then you will lose money just like everyone else.

    Shoulda, woulda coulda isn't really a valid argument. We all know the risks. If one doesn't believe in the bull then don't take a full position and definitely don't leverage.

    I happen to believe and the tools I use suggest now is the best time to press on the accelerator so that's what I'm going to do.

  52. pimaCanyon

    Are you blind or did you not look at that chart?

    Looks like being long bonds and gold YTD has not only been profitable - but its been right in that it has had the same performance with about half the risk.

    Will you sit here and tell me I have been wrong in that trade this year?

  53. the problem is everyone wants me to to admit I am somehow wrong, that owning bonds has cost me money and that I should just get on the G-Train and go full blown bull on gold.

    The irony is the facts show I am not wrong so far. Yet will anyone be willing to admit that?

    No - because everyone else is right...... funny.

  54. Regarding the diamond discussion, they are simply a MANUFACTURED VALUE based on advertising and tightly controlled supply chain (with essentially *NO* buyback chain - by design). They are not investments.

    We are all aware of "gold districts", "fabric districts", "seafood districs", "diamond districts" in various areas of the world.

    Here's the funny part...in ALL of those you can take a load of whatever commodity you want to transact, walk in, and SELL IT....except for ONE and ONLY ONE in the WHOLE WORLD - DIAMONDS.

    Try taking diamonds into a diamond district and selling them. You'll leave a very wise and humble person.

    Why? The people working that district are in on a secret that they try to keep from the masses. If you want to learn more, read "The Diamond Invention". Your time will be well spent. (Clue: you can actually blame women for this one.)


  55. Trusting your tools to press Gary is no different than pressing the accelerator in your car to get to LA in 3 hours.

    Like I said - if you are right - congrats. But you sure take a lot more risk than I do, even though my 50/50 inflation-deflation bet is up 17% combined.

    Maybe prudence is idiotic to people on this board.....


  56. Anon1 "getting worried" hedges your position so no matter what happens you can say you were right. You clearly thought we were overdone and dismissed my comment that we wouldn't drop to $1250 as proof as to how rabid people were. Now it's morphed into just "worried." Why post that something might happen? You thought we'd drop and were wrong. No big deal, but at least admit it as Gary does (or I do, having blown my recent SPX sell signal). If there was some nuance that hedged you further, you're right I missed it amongst all your " gold is overdone" claims. That's it. I'll leave you alone now, but Gary's right, you constantly just argue and nitpick. No point in my responding further I suppose.

  57. Anon1, you missed the whole point of the discussion. I think the fact that you made what?--5 posts!--immediately after Gary's last post proves the point that for you it's all about being right, that's the most important thing. Gary really couldn't care less about being right, he's in it for the money.

    The ultimate irony is that you call Gary arrogant! Maybe I suggested this before, but I'll bring it up again: Consider the physiology of pointing. You point your finger at Gary and yell "arrogance!". Just remember 3 fingers on that same hand are pointing back at you.

  58. It's also ironic to me the "humbleness" in your admitting you are only right 50% of the time and do not know the future.......

    yet you are 100% certain I will get crushed in my bonds going forward

    So you are 50/50 on the future everything else but the bond market is 100% for sure in the future to lose me money? Can I please borrow your bond crystal ball?

    2% on the 30 year in your lifetime - just watch.

  59. Any recommendations for those wanting to jump on the mining bandwagon? I notice the HUI didn't not get a weekly close over 515 back in 2008, so a weekly close over that mark might be nice to get.

    I've got some skin in the game for this gold/silver bull, but wanted to go after some miners.

  60. Yeah I'm done too. I have better things to do than argue.

    I'm feeling a chicken burrito calling my name for lunch mmmm.

  61. anon1 thinks b/c he reads Mish he's a genius.

    What a putz!

  62. well pimacanyon -

    my responses were in defense - not attacking.

    Why don't you read all the posts for this new entry, and see how I was drug in.

    pot - welcome to the mr. kettle

  63. g-string -

    who is mish?

  64. GDX, GDXJ, SLV, SIL and AGQ are good choices.

  65. The same momo exhaustion indication on SLW is also on the dollar index (to the downside). I just noticed. (Although the dollar index isn't nearly as reliable a tool to individual tradable securities).

    Still...it is interesting.


  66. DG -

    Go back and read the posts.......

    I said it was comments like that that get me worried. $1250 is still not that far away, yet you made it sound like an impossibility.

    It was clear that I said I was beginning to get worried. You make it sound like I was trying to short gold or call the top.

    In a court of law - your case has many holes.

  67. I want to give Gary some kudos. I'm looking at my trading habits over the past few years and see that I've made 80% fewer trades this year than last, and am having way more gains....Unfortunately, I fought the stock market rally during the second half of 09 which neutralized gains in pms.

    The practice of riding a bull market really resonates with me. And although I get "itchy" and want to pull the trigger at times, I have not, as I really believe that Old Turkey was right.

    Looking forward to a corrective move here to add to my GDX and SLV.

    As far as physical metal goes, I'm hoping to take some paper profits from this C-Wave, and buy during the D-Wave correction when sentiment reverses and weak hands panic, creating available supply. I do carry anxiety that the dollar could collapse in a wave of public panic, would like to have some silver on hand to trade for land and goods if that occurs.


  68. Anon1, you wrote "the problem is everyone wants me to to admit I am somehow wrong...". From this it's obvious that your posts here are all about being right, and you're bringing that agenda here and ASSUMING that that's the case for everyone else here. I got news for you: No one cares whether you are "right"! And believe me, no one is sitting here waiting for you to admit that you're wrong. Right and wrong are not important. What is important is being profitable.

    The thing that matters is: Are you making money? It appears that you are, so good for you! Is Gary making money? Yes, he is, so good for him and for his subs. Seems that as difficult as it may be for you to understand, as far as the market is concerned you BOTH are right (profitable)!

    Hopefully that will make you feel better (now that someone here has said you are RIGHT) and you can ease up on the posts

  69. How did y'all ever get comfy with the idea of being 100% (or more) invested in this sector?

    I have lost out on big gains by taking only small positions and settling for small gains. I went in about 30% at the Feb low, and that worked out well - but I've been waiting and waiting for another opportunity where the selling pressure was as intense as it was in Feb, and sentiment as skewed as it was then -- but it never came. I couldn't quite trust Gary in July when XJ was at 25 and he was saying "bottom." It just didn't feel right because nobody on this train was freaked out like they were in Feb. So I stayed put and waited.

    Why was Feb so much more intense on the downside than July, yet July spawned this huge rally?

  70. DG - Since we know you aren't interested in the truth because you won't take the time to go and find it and instead want to argue that I only want to be right, let me ask you, are you willing to live up to your own standard and admit when YOU are wrong?

    Anonymous Anonymous1 said...

    Dang - reading all these posts..... I'm getting worried about my long gold 60% position.

    Everyone is getting all giddy and calling breakouts and this is it - the big move. The USD is toast, blah, blah, blah.

    I like it better when you all whine and are begging Gary to keep you in as you want to bail.

    I think I need to cancel my Sentimentrader.com subscription. It's better real time sentiment on this forum.

    Might be time to trim to 40% long gold.

    September 14, 2010 10:12 PM
    Anonymous Anonymous1 said...

    It's better if everyone was freaked out this was just a rinse job taking out the buy stops over the highs. I am hoping to heck we don't close back below 1250, or ya'll were just duped.

    605 long gold, and was feeling excited, but all this optimism have me nervous now.

    September 14, 2010 10:14 PM

  71. The Feb. low happened to corespond to a yearly cycle low in stocks which greatly intensified the move.

    Also the recent top in June wasn't anywhere near as stretched both technically and sentiment wise as the top in Nov. so the correction was corespondingly weaker.

  72. pima -

    I am not the one bringing up the issue of right and wrong - I am the one being accused of being wrong, and then being required to admit that I am wrong.

    It's a bit of a case of being crucified unjustly. My original reason for coming one was to debate Gary on his economic thesis. I have also debated him on his massive inflation calls. There is nothing wrong in debate.

    I just find it a double standard that when it goes against the grain on this forum, it is somehow "wrong" and unless the person is coerced into admitting he is wrong, they are marginalized.

    Please, show me where I have been wrong and I will be glad to admit I have been wrong and will adjust my trading. But when I stick to my trade and it is profitable, why should I be required by you to admit I am wrong? Has nothing to do with having to be right. The trade has been right - the facts show it. Yet I need to humble myself and admit I am wrong. I just ask where?

  73. The problem with diamonds is that it is cheaper to produce synthetic diamonds than the cost of natural diamonds. The only thing that supports the value of natural gem diamonds is perception created by the DeBeers machine.

    Diamond is carbon with a different atomic rearrangement. I am sure you could scale up Apollo Diamond's process and make flawless, white, gem quality diamonds at very low cost relative to what they cost now. Dig up the article about Apollo in Wired Magazine for a fun read.

    Similarly, gold would be undermined as either a commodity or currency (especially) if an Alchemist succeeded in making synthetic gold, which thankfully is impossible.

    I wouldn't touch diamond investment with a 1E6 foot pole.

  74. In case you didn't take the time pima -

    It's this kind of double standard crap

    "I think we can all agree Anon1 is only interested in disagreeing with someone. Whether or not there is any fundamental or logical reason behind his disagreement is irrelevant to him."

    Even though the truth is something 100% different. I have spent plenty of time backing up why I think the way I do. Because it does not agree with the chosen guru, anything I say is marginalized as just wanting to disagree and only wanting to be right, and is not based on anything but fantasy.

    The board should be honest with themselves and admit they don't want to hear anything but the gold to the moon story. They are not willing to argue/debate anything contrary.

    Welcome to DoubleStandardTracker.com where we only buy gold and crucify anyone else who has a different opinion as pigheaded, stupid, argumentative, not humble, and loser of money.

    sounds kind of cultish now if you ask me.

  75. You know if everyone just ignored the troll which has obvious "issues"...it will go away.


  76. DG said: "Anon1 "getting worried" hedges your position so no matter what happens you can say you were right."

    Oh the irony! No DG - I am worried and am 40% gold and 60% cash/bonds because I understand that I DON'T know what will happen and I understand that I am not good enough to BE right.

    100% long gold is the arrogant I am not wrong trade.

    Don't you see the humor in what you said?

  77. You guys don't seem to understand this lunatic.

    I believe red cars should really been green, because gold will go up. That is why bonds are new and fresh. Hence if something is new, it really has to be in a bull market.

    Now argue with that....ps I think you are dumb!

    Anon1, will respond, because that is what he does. And last-word-anon1 says....

  78. Actually Lemming Chris -

    I probably won't. I get decent sentiment data from the board.

    And I will continue to fight mis truths about the economy that get posted here.

    Gary knows gold - but does not know economics very well.

    This troll is a fighter of truth, you can call it arrogance or whatever you want. When I read things that have another side that needs to be considered and shown - then I write. So in the future - when you see me post - know that it is probably because there is a different side to a story that no one seems to be seeing. In investing - like in court - one should always consider both sides and be thankful for both.


  79. last word anon1 says to anon......

    I don't think you are dumb - I know it


  80. I believe in Austrain economics just like Rogers, Schiff, Pento, Faber, etc. I'm not sure what's wrong with that.

    It's pretty much predicted the mess we are in which BTW was caused by Keyensian economics.

  81. I agree Gary (see - not always trying to just argue)

    Keynes is an idiot.

    My stance though is it won't end in a climatic destruction.

    My bet is that it ends more like Japan is all. Thus the reason I debate some of your posts on crashing dollars and massive inflation. Typically, this back and forth would be considered good. Here, the other side is only an idiot.

    It's taken over 30 years for Keynes junk to be recognized as bad. Gold bugs had been wrong for decades.

    I am just not willing to be that it ends overnight, when it has gone on for so long.

    Let the mudslinging begin......

  82. Thanks Gary -

    That was fair

  83. @ Anonymous 1

    I'm not a bit surprised that gold and bonds are tracking in lockstep, as I believe both are being powered by the same force. That force is the fear of the stock market. I think that fear is irrational.

    In the long run, money will go to where it is being treated best. I think you and Gary both better hope stocks don't rise like I think they will.

    As to Gary having a concentrated position, that's how real wealth is attained. I allow myself to own one individual stock (and I own it in size as a % of my portfolio value).

    I'm always interested in the rational of the person willing to fund his 5th best idea. What a waste!

  84. Being wrong is a crime only if you don't admit it.

    You might as well ask why most fund managers under perform the S&P. Fear of failure is my guess.

  85. Will we be in the D wave on May 12? That's when my position will qualify for long term capital gains.

  86. Curses, Foiled Again

    My indicators are showing "strong market" conditions for stocks again, so I won't be honoring my next sell signal.

    I'm looking forward to when the stock market starts performing in a more normal fashion.

  87. Gary,

    Expecting a pullback in Gold / Silver... check this out from KWN. Think we could see a massive short squeeze


  88. King has a history of getting rather emotional about his positions. It's probably more likely he's crossed into the euphoria phase right as gold is about to enter a short term correction.

    I still expect the cycles to work at least at this stage of the game.

  89. How do I stop the posts from getting into my email?


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