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Tuesday, September 14, 2010

COIL REVERSAL IN PROGRESS

I've talked about volatility coils in the past. Contrary to what most people believe the initial move out of a coil, even though it is usually pretty aggressive, usually tends to be a false move that is soon followed by a more powerful and durable move in the opposite direction.

We now have two coils that are in the process of reversing. Well actually one is reversing, the BKX has already reversed.




Along with the dollar collapsing this is just another sign that the August highs will most likely be taken out soon and I expect we will see a move to new highs before this daily cycle tops.

167 comments:

  1. Gotta disagree with you this time Gary. EWe have already had a huge sharp rally in the SPX and are now out of juice. YOu and I work on different time frames, so maybe we get a nasty dip first and then break the August highs, I don't know. Possibly the dollar collapse (if it happens now) powers stocks higher even though we are overdone to the upside, but I believe it is a low-odds play to buy on a break above the August highs (as opposed to a gold breakout where sentiment and cycles supports the breakout). We'll see.

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  2. The ollar seems to have begun its free fall... below 81.50 now...yet the snp isnt respondin in kind...

    Aaron.

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  3. Gary,

    There's sth I must tell you.

    I Love You!

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  4. Sing,

    Give Gary a kiss for me :-)

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  5. GARY,

    When you post a new article like you just did within the first hour of trading (while people were still discussing this breakout on last night's article), could you consider posting a note on the old article that says "NEW ARTICLE UP" so we know to shift over? THanks.

    -TZ

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  6. Or just have a forum? like the paying subscribers did...

    Aaron.

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  7. Dollar oversold nearterm. Due for a bounce before it breaks down. Equities should struggle at this level (maybe just a couple of days who knows exactly).

    Gold breaking out. Silver is not, go figure.

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  8. Dollar bulls are hurting terribly.

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  9. Looks like GaryUK had another timely visit, helping fuel the next rally in stocks. :)

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  10. Silver is most assuredly breaking out. In fact, it has been leading the PM charge for several weeks, now well above recent highs.

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  11. Looks like gold, silver and gold have all broken out!

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  12. Er...I also meant gold miners have broken out...

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  13. *rubbing eyes squinting*...boy my silver chart must be way the fuck off. I swear back in March of 2008, SLV traded as high as 20.73.

    Silver is not breaking out (yet).

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  14. Short the dollar, but I don't think this "collapse" is going to last too long given the sentiment (who is left to sell?).

    http://www.businessinsider.com/traders-havent-been-this-short-the-dollar-and-this-long-the-euro-in-years-2010-9

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  15. Well, does a new 52wk high count?

    Or how about if you drew a trendline from Mar 2008 to May 2010? Would that count?

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  16. Re dollar bearishness: According to sentimentrader.com (Gary and my claim is that he is the best there is on sentiment) dollar opinion is dead neutral. COT is neutral, Rydex flow of funds is neutral, and public opinion is neutral. It's easy to think "everyone must be bearish by now" when something goes down for a while, but I think it's better to get the actual numbers. We are not far from standard deviation on any of those three key measures. It doesn't seem like sentiment is arguing for a dollar rally yet.

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  17. nope, that doesn't count.

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  18. Okie..I take back "silver is breaking out" then :-)

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  19. Okay, all-time highs for silver remain above, but c'mon ...

    Breakouts can occur on different timeframes. While the all-time highs haven't been hit yet, I would consider the action in silver surging above the previous tops set in '09-'10 (i.e., after the Great Liquidation of '08) a significant breakout.

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  20. Not to put too fine a point on it, but the move out of the daily pennant for silver on 8/25 was an earlier breakout, i.e, it signaled the willingness of the market to accept progressively higher prices. That's the important issue, not whether new all-time prices will be hit (though I certainly hope they will).

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  21. TZ,

    This is not schadenfreude, I am curious what you did with your SLW puts. Haven't read the blog since you launched a second attempt. Hope you didn't buy Sep puts.

    p.s. I am not the Anonymous/ Frank.

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  22. Justin taking it in the cheeks again!

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  23. I think it will be difficult for anon 8:03 to look at breakouts from different timeframes...I mean he might have to keep suinting and rubbing his eyes..not good.

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  24. Okay, okay. SLV is a "redshirt freshman". Above the 2008 highs, it will be a "true freshman".

    yeah, yeah, I'm sure there are better analogies.

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  25. Okay, okay. SLV is a "redshirt freshman". Above the 2008 highs, it will be a "true freshman".

    yeah, yeah, I'm sure there are better analogies.

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  26. FRANK,

    No worries. I actually made that earlier note to Gary to let us know when he makes a new article cause I was still posting on the old one an hour ago.

    I made a joke:
    "Anybody want to buy some SLW puts? :-)"

    They are down about 75-80%. I'm ok. Got the in gold futures before the breakout this morn and holding. Already made more than the puts cost in the first 10min.

    The slw puts were a good gamble, but they (so far) got overwhelmed by this breakout. Still holding them. There is a chance this gold breakout reverses into fri options ex. That would stop me out of the contracts and prob put me back in the money on SLW. Bit of a hedge at this point. This breakout is still in the dangerous stage.

    --TZ

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  27. Note as well that I bought gold futures and STILL not any SLW stock. The reason is that gold has a defined exit for me here with a tight loss (I'm using leverage as I mentioned before - stops are necessary).

    SLW has no such clear entry to limit losses because it is up (still) in midair. It is still climbing and still strong but it WILL correct and when it does it will be a doozy. I'll get a lump of shares then.

    This gold rally has 3-6 MONTHS in it and there will be plenty of pullbacks to buy and continue building a position before we have a blowout peak. The first trick was starting today. I didn't ever get the pullback (even to 1230 as gary suggested), but in before the breakout in and of itself offers some degree of downside protection.

    --TZ

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  28. Nice timing GaryUK. You're in the driver's seat now. LMAO!

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  29. Today will be the top for silver and gold. Tomorrow, bye bye.

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  30. Gold is on fire... just when it wants to rest... I think silver will take over in the next couple of days.

    Aaron.

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  31. For some reason bonds are rallying, despite gold and pms up and a dropping USD. Why would anybody be buying bonds at these rates, when the dollar is falling hard....seems to me they would get hurt twice. The only thing that makes sense, I am wondering, is if somebody knows something about QE2 and that the Fed will be buying bonds soon.

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  32. Keys--
    I noticed that also. Strange!!

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  33. Gold up, silver up, EUR/USD up.

    Gary, you are definetely the best $25 i spent in my life.

    Thanks a lot.

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  34. Tim Knight went short RTH yesterday. FWIW.

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  35. Keys,

    You are right...look at

    http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=agDgJ4ZqGivI&pos=1

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  36. Daniel
    Glad it wasn't just my eyes then.

    I don't invest based upon any one thing. But the story keeps building for PM's and more importantly Old Turkey.

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  37. What are the guys with core position in PMs, but wanting to add to it doing. PMs and miners seem to be running away! Not sure whether I should add now or wait for a pullback.

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  38. Gary, SPX up 9 days now, Don't they have to rest first before going up again?

    oa

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  39. Hey Anon at 9:13:

    I'm one of them. Imho, I'm just watching,resisting strong temptation to take profits on what is poss. my biggest daily gain. But this move has been precipitated by the mismanagement and wrong-doings of our gov't, and it's a long time in coming. Unfortunately, I think Gary will be right and there is more upside to come. So I don't sell, and yet hold back adding more at this moment.

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  40. My fav is still SLW, assuming pms still go higher.

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  41. The Drudge Report has the gold story as the lede. It's becoming more mainstream.

    http://drudgereport.com/

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  42. Folks,

    For those wanting to add, I think Gary said when there is a breakout, don't hesitate.

    I think we have had our breakout!

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  43. If the dollar keeps tanking, my previous blog suggested a theory that other central banks will keep the dollar from blowing up(or down I should say) and would allow for a gradual demise. If the dollar is supported, this will give us an idea, at least to me, which I could be wrong, whether hyper-inflation or really big inflation will happen. OF course CPI numbers will be negative as the FED substiutes housing for card board boxes, energy costs with riding your bike and heating your home with love and unicorns.

    Not a prediction, but a train of thought.

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  44. I find it a bit amusing that an exscuse with a bursting oil pipeline/higher gas prices just so happened right before the USD gets trashed.Anyway, we're right into the teeth of this massive rising wedge with gold so let's see if we can hold the BO.
    Frank

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  45. Gary_UK again.

    I tend to get accused of only posting at bottoms, so justy to show there's no hard feelings I post at a swing high too.

    Again, not sure why there is such venom against me? My trades are doing fine, and I really don't swing trade much, just trim a little at bottoms and add more at the top.

    I really feel Gary is wrong again, as I said earlier, and the markets are about to roll over in a big way. I am heavily short in anticipation.

    I see very bullish sentiment everywhere, especially in Gold & Silver. Sadly for you bulls, I think such sentiment warrants a significant correction. Just be careful, or be bold enough to hold on.

    I have little doubt that equity markets will break down this week, and won't pop much over 1131, if at all.

    I'm still expecting market lows of below 900 on S&P some time in November, and will profit of course from that being heavily short right now.

    You'll all know if I'm wrong soon enough won't you, as Gary is predicting new highs for Nasdaq and S&P, today of all days, at the very top!!

    Maybe if I am proved right, some of you will be less hostile in the future, as I only try to help those of you who trade equities, and would lose money listening to Gary. I wish you all success.

    Buckle up then gold bugs, it;s about to get bumpy!

    Oh, PS it really is me, as I am sure you can tell, but I am not using my google sign in to avoid confusion with the blogger Gary.

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  46. 2 charts for you all to consider carefully.....

    http://content.screencast.com/users/Gary_UK/folders/Jing/media/7a295ef0-bef1-449b-b9b7-8d42b9a0e499/Silver%20Sept%202010%20top.png

    http://www.screencast.com/users/Gary_UK/folders/Jing/media/15347db5-2ab4-4701-92d3-d08e2ce38fe6

    Are you a buyer, a seller, or a holder at the current levels?

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  47. Anon at 9:13

    I hold a core of stocks/ETFs in miners. I added last week when there was a pullback, and I added a little more today.

    At this point I am strictly adding on leverage, and I am adding strictly with ETFs (SIL and GDXJ) to avoid huge surprises.

    Peter

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  48. Folks I wouldn't be taking profits today. We just witnessed major breakouts for gold and gold stocks. Also, my cycle analysis differs from Gary's a bit. For various reasons I am convinced we saw a daily cycle bottom this past Friday rather than on August 24. We are therefore only an Day 2 of a new cycle.

    Early in a daily cycle plus major breakout = BIG move.

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  49. This breakout is for real

    Notice the volume in GLD, well above average

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  50. there are times to sell, and times to hold. if you want to squeeze pennies, go ahead and wait for a pull back , as some of you have been for 2 weeks, or recognize the opportunity of stocks breaking out on volume surges. SIL > volume 4x ; SLW volume up 50% ; GDXJ 2x volume. The whole sector is up on massive volume. Thats telling.

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  51. There are several reasons there is hostility towards you: 1) You are arrogant ("buckle up gold bugs"? Snotty and disrespectful. Third grade stuff. Designed to get a rise out of people, and the n you ac t surprised when it does! 2) you make unsupported claims "Too much bullishness" By what measures? 3) "Gary is wrong again" Again unsupported and designed to bug people 4) YOu never admit your mistakes. i have read your stuff and other than insisting you are right, you never change your mind or admit error. The list is a lot longer than that, but you get the idea. YOu're probably just a frustrated something-or-other and getting a rise out of bloggers makes you feel alive or something. As soon as you change your tone and attitude the annoyance will go away. But you probably won't, because this is how you get your kicks, I guess. How about some evidence for your claims that can be intelligently debated? For example, by what measure is there so much bullishness on gold?

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  52. PM's setting up to crash it seems.

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  53. To add to DG's list, Gary_UK, your credibility when it comes to your own trades seems open to question. You self-reported buying puts on the *other* side of the July lows (I guess you closed those, since you current trades are "doing fine"), and the breezy confidence you seem keen to communicate is rather at odds with this chap:

    http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/2010/09/e-minis_10.html#comment-76637236

    Topping it all, accusing Gary for being wrong on a day when the PMs are staging a convincing breakout takes a truly un-British amount of chutzpah.

    Best of luck, man. You've no right to be surprised by a cold reception here, regardless of your market calls (still waiting for the *first* correct one, btw ... even the incompetent get lucky).

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  54. gary UK can yap all he wants but he is getting HAMMERED ... he was shorting at SPY 1075 .. RELOADING, he called it. last time I checked it was a little higher.

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  55. Well I can tell by the number of posts that gold and miners have broken out :)

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  56. DG,
    I would not be buying here. I told subs to buy on the GDP revision. They should still be holding long positions. Well that is if they were inclined to waste their time trading the stock market.

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  57. People who buy silver and gold today will scream mama soon.

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  58. Parabolic top on PMs.

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  59. Is "mama" Albanian for "I'm rich"?

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  60. Bonds still in a bull market and look strong. Fundamentals still support these low yields.

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  61. Apparently anon has no idea what a parabolic top looks like.

    A parabolic top is when gold is stretched 30-40% above the 200 DMA and has rallied virtually non-stop for several weeks in a row. Usually at about an 80-85% clip.

    Anon you are absolutely clueless.

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  62. It's been a long time since PM had a day like today.

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  63. The low volume lately was the market waiting to see if the breakout would occur. Once it did everyone is piling in.

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  64. Gary, Why would the breakout in Gold and HUI today not classify as one of your "run the buy orders above top, draw them in, and quickly reverse" deals? i.e. Similar to the July low running stops before reversing hard to the upside.

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  65. gary

    you said you will not buy gold, PM at these levels... at what level would you add to your positions?

    fyi

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  66. DG,

    I'm not observing my stock market sell signals today as I have received a prior "strong market" signal. I will continue to honor my buys.

    While I agree with you about overbought, etc., sometimes the markets become so strong that these indicators will lead you astray.

    I trade QLD (2xQQQQ), but so far I have not gotten a corresponding "strong market" S&P signal.

    I think these signals work like the embedded stochastics described in a post a few days ago.

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  67. Are you guys ready for the plunge?

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  68. Plunge in the USD. Sure thing!

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  69. anon 12:35

    I was talking about the stock market.

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  70. Anon 12:33,

    That may happen at some point but not at that very beginning of a move.

    Gold tops above big round numbers. Smart money pushes gold above $1000 or $1200, something like that and then sells into the rally. My best guess at the moment would be for this second leg to maybe rally to a little over $1400 before getting any kind of significant correction.

    And if a runaway move develops there is no telling how far or long the move could last.

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  71. Still nothing in the way of any significant selling on strength numbers. Without that I would be very leary about shorting the stock market for anything other than a day trade.

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  72. On one of the best days I've had in years, the wife tells me she's cooking me MEATLOAF for dinner?

    Oh well, I better go along with it...

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  73. Wes, here's the dip I mentioned was coming (though I expect more after this failure to break out). Overbought leads you astray when you are coming lout of a compression bottom. After a big rally, overbought at resistance is dangerous. That said, I am only lightly short as I have some ambivalence and am more interested in gold than stock until the stock situation gets clearer.

    Gary: You said you are not advocating buying here but also said that we would soon beat the August highs and then head towards the April highs. I understand you are by far more interested in gold, but given your SPX comments it sound like you expect a rally. I was simply saying I don't (at least not without a dip first).

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  74. GaryUK got buggered today.

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  75. SIL etf up 24% in last 2 weeks. Nice call G-Train!

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  76. UGH! Gary, what happened in the last hour. Do you think Big Money was just trying to run this thing up so they could sell into the breakout?

    It seems that nothing comes easy in this market.

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  77. DG,

    To be clear, "strong market" signals don't mean that there are no dips.

    What it does imply is that the dips are usually shallow and should be bought.

    A good example of this is just after the February market lows earlier this year.

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  78. DG,
    Little daily wiggles are meaningless to me. Not that I am trading the stock market but if I was I would ignore a slight dip before breaking out.

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  79. Todd,
    Ignore the noise. How many times have we learned that gold will do everything it can to throw people off the bull.

    Old Turkey.

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  80. Thanks Old Turkey, I hope your right. I just more than doubled my positions today on the breakout. They certainly don't make this easy. I thought I could finally sleep comfortably tonight.

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  81. Yep, suckers chased this thing and big money is unloading. Charts were diverging hard up until this "break out". We held the HUI triangle on the close, so that is not valid yet. The round number Gary is the break above the all time highs on gold and silver, getting everyone to chase. Now the price will fall like a rock. :)

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  82. Oh I seriously doubt it :)

    Big money may try to scare off the nervous Nellies so they can accumulate more shares into the break out but I really doubt this is a fake breakout after all the attempts to break through.

    This is the only sector in the world trading at new all time highs. Hot money will be flooding into this sector in the coming months.

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  83. Ha ha! PM bulls ready to get slaughtered! SPX 950 is coming soon to a theater near you! Elliot Wave says FU guys, gold will get crushed in a deflationary holocaust. Prechter will be made king of the world! He's the most accurate guru ever to set foot on a stock chart! Silver will be 2 dollars an ounce! Stocks will go to zero! We will all be living in Gary's basement! I get the pull out couch! SCREW YOU GUYS!

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  84. Wow, sounds like someone in their death throes after getting run over by the G-train :)

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  85. That wuz me, forgot to sign in. I'm on the G-train and also the S-Train, thank you!

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  86. Holy cow Batman the dollar just cratered right through the 200 DMA.

    What is that now?

    G-train 6 or is it 7
    troll boys zip

    Fading the G-man has been a pretty expensive mistake for you gents.

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  87. Oops. The window to get out has now been shut. Crash coming on all assets.

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  88. I'm so terrified I can hardly count my profits.

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  89. Getting rich is fun!

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  90. I feel bad for those AU shareholders. The stock went from a high of 47.75 this afternoon to 44.15 in afterhours. Of course, this certainly doesn't help me GDX.

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  91. One more push would be nice for confirmation. On both an intraday and closing basis, GDX is more or less at last year's high (albeit a touch higher on both scores), though the underlying price structure looks a lot more supportive. Not a bear or a hater, I hasten to add, and long the sector, just keeping the bubbly iced for the time being.

    Regardless, you've done a fine job of navigating for months now, Gary. Kudos.

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  92. Gold over 1300, 1400 and 1500 dollars will correct a lot of management mistakes (if that is why the stock dropped)

    Trust me, at the C-wave top even the crappiest miners are going to be soaring.

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  93. Gary,

    At $44, AU is back where I last sold it.... in 2003. Gold was what, $350/oz then?

    Make no mistake, AU was the first PM stock I ever bought, at the height of the tech bubble, for $15. It introduced me to the world of gold, for which I will always be grateful.

    But gold is up %400 since then, and AU is nowhere.

    So it's not entirely true that a rising tide lifts all boats, or that the bull market will correct all mistakes. You have to stick with the leaders and perhaps the ETFs. A broad portfolio of these should do well, but you still have to be careful.

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  94. I always prefer an ETF or basket of miners myself. But I will say that AU is on the verge of breaking out of a huge consolidation just like the rest of the mining sector so I would expect it to follow it's cousins as gold move up. Even the all time highs are only 33% away. In the volatile mining sector a move like that can unfold in a couple of weeks.

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  95. The next 24hrs are the DANGER ZONE. We had a sharp move up to new highs on VERY high volume (I'm talking gold contracts but the other stuff did the same.)

    These gains and high volume could be the beginning of a breakout and run. *OR* they could be the (temporary) *END* of the last 6 weeks of rallying. Options expire on fri and all the weak hand chasing and buying today is now RIPE for the picking by walking the gains of today back down (assuming there is little additional buying strength to hold stuff up - maybe there is).

    In addition to option ex week here and we are also now *past* the TUES COT cutoff, which means any comex hits occurring now won't register (or reveal themselves) until next weeks COT. It provides cover for wall street so they can attack things now and it wont be as clear for many days.

    If this is a breakout and start of a run, gold shouldn't go below 1258 or so (the breakout and high vol point, approx) in next 24hrs.

    If, however, INSTEAD this is the (temporary) culmination of a large multi-week up move (quite possible), then gold (and the rest of the sector) will now reverse down pretty hard within the next 24hrs. The buying frenzy today will have resulted in many weak hands chasing and they can be squeezed for free money and help snowball a reversal down. Such a reversal down would continue into fri and wipe out a great deal of call option money - a typical occurance.

    So like I said. The next 24hrs will be key. The question is whether there is enough buying strenth left to counter a takedown of today's spike.

    -If you didn't buy anything and are watching you are fine.

    -If you bought some extra NON-leveraged positions then you are fine (but recognize you are buying stuff on breakouts and after a month of rallies (and on option ex week) so you might have to deal with a reversal here. Gary would just say 'chill'.

    -If you bought large or *leveraged* positions BEFORE the large spike starting around 9:30pm (eastern/market time always) then you don't want to hold (due to losses you could take) if this reversal happens. A reverse down to 1210 or so would be perfectly possible and normal. For risk control you would HAVE to lighten if this breakout doesn't hold. (THIS is the situation I am currently in. Trading leveraged means you can't just shut your eyes and hold).

    -If you bought large or leveraged positions AFTER the spike gains, then you are in the *worst* position. All such buyers have neither gains to buffer their positions and they are also likely to go negative even if we do NOT reverse back down. Generally you need to get leveraged positions BEFORE breakouts so you have some protection and profit buffer.

    Let's see how it goes...

    -TZ

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  96. Hyperinflation from shadow stats
    http://www.shadowstats.com/article/hyperinflation-2010.pdf

    And Gary isn't that coil reversal a bit out of date. We had another coil near the 1040-1060 low, didn't we, after the original coil?

    Market Profilers call these coils, a market in balance, a bracketed market. Enough buyers and sellers believe that this a fair price and are doing business here. Markets will break this balance when new information creates an imbalance leading to a new vertical development.

    The problem right now for the bullish case is that the economic data is coming better than expected (because the expectations got lowered due to sentiment extremes). However this has removed the crutch to lean on for QE2 to sail, especially with the election coming.

    This is going to be an interesting week. If a week from now there is no QE, we might be in for one sell-off, including the PMs.

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  97. I'm actually going to discuss this in tonight's reports. Suffuce it to say that intermediate term rallies don't top because of trend lines or whether or not a second round of QE is impending.

    They top either because of a catatrophic news event or because sentiment has reached bullish extremes and we run out of buyers.

    I would say betting on a news event is probably equivilent to buying a lottery ticket which is to say not good.

    Sentiment is a long way from too bullish yet. So I don't see anything on the immediate horizon that will derail the rally for anything other than a short tem pullback.

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  98. I watched the large volume comex spike this morning on gold and then saw that gold CONTINUED higher well past it. Usually once you get a spike on volume it caps the move for the moment - *unless* that spike was not the end of the move.

    Since we continued higher, my OPINION is that we will NOT reverse back in next 24hours and that this rally continues up to 1300 by next week (or maybe this week!) before starting any sort of possible pullback.

    Part of the reason I bought this breakout (just before actually) is that the strength and the number of people trying to get in to this bull now seems huge. I think there is a good chance that this break just keeps on going for a while longer to really torture people who are out.

    (If we don't, my alternate plan is already ready for a pullback here. But my money is currently betting to the upside)

    -TZ

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  99. The price action in AU was a bit troubling. We know that it is popular with the big boys like Paulson. I don't why; it has been a horrible company.

    If you have to invest in big cap gold then why not GG, ABX or even NEM instead? I prefer GFI. One of the few big cap golds that I own.

    Maybe the calculation is that crap like AU increases more when the gold market goes into overdrive?

    On the other end of the spectrum you have crappy micro-cap juniors.....

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  100. Frank-

    Can you give me your line up for the various small and micro caps?

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  101. Well now we know why all the fly-by-night crappy little miners have been going through the roof in the last month or so. They were like fleas trying to escape a hot griddle! Thanks Gary, your coaching is invaluable, as always.

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  102. Wes and Gary: I have often seen that "disagreements" between experienced traders have to do with time frames and tactics. A dip first may be irrelevant to some and not others. I play with extremely tight stops, as that is and has always been my style. Not that it should be anyone else's, but I like it that way and it works for me. I traded the last few "one-day wonder" moves (up and down) each of which was good for 15-300 points. I try to be clear when I think a sharp dip is coming or when I expect something more. If we get this it'll be in the "dip" category, and I am even less confident of that than my other recent calls (or I'd be heavily short). Gary, after all this time studying SPX movements I ain't giving it up, but I agree with you that gold is where the action is. Thanks---I'[m a helluva lot longer than I'd have been without your blog!

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  103. Checked on the $USD chart. Today was the dagger, closing below the 200.

    Yet, price action tells me the dollar is going much higher. LMAO!

    Btw, where's Justin today? We know he didn't take the day off, or is he just sitting by himself pulling his hair out? LMAO again!!!

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  104. Justin are you talking to yourself again.

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  105. Gary,

    "...What I would expect under normal circumstances would be for gold to rally to $1300 then correct back down ...."

    I seem to recall someone else saying that earlier today :-)

    -TZ

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  106. DG,

    I trade around a core position of QLD when I'm bullish on the market, and I don't short bull markets.

    In general, I try to sell price strength and buy weakness with a portion of my position. I've already sold 2750 shares of QLD on this move (I wish I hadn't, of course), so if we get a down move, I'll use it to reload when I get a buy signal.

    If the market continues up, I still hold the majority of my long position.

    When the market goes "strong market", I hold (ignore sell signals) and stop out if the market violates the last low, meanwhile using pullbacks to restock.

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  107. Oooh! Trolls coming out of the woodwork...intensity increasing...troll meter overheating...

    Looks like more upside to come!

    I wish to dedicate today's profits to all the trolls out there. I thank you for taking valuable time off from shorting the gold bull market to spend it with us. Without your insults, profanity, flippant and unsubstantiated remarks, an accurate troll meter would not have been possible. Then we *gold bugs* would be forced to depend on *clueless* Gary. We would have been truly lost! Any person aspiring to be rich will count himself lucky to have a tool...er I mean a friend
    like you.
    I also want to acknowledge that your commitment and dedication - to the wrong side of the trade - is an inspiration to us all. Your unwavering faith in yourselves and your methods, despite taking so many hits, is awesome. Your courage, refusal to give up and refusal to learn have been the keys to our success. And for that we thank you!
    Yet at some point, we may have to part ways(just before the D-wave). As you enjoy your moment in the sun, please do not forget all the good profits we made because of you.
    Then we look forward to rejoining you somewhere at the start of another A-wave to continue this profitable relationship.

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  108. Seems fair to me, Wes. Can you say what sort of things give you a strong market or weak market signal? I am not really seeing very much in terms of extremes, so am not doing much. I will short in bulls, but it just tells me to cover quickly and not hold. I also need more extreme readings to short in a bull than to short in a bear, but will go long ore short in any market with those caveats (with tight stops always). Lots of ways to play this game...

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  109. Looks like other countries are starting to push back against the FED and China. Japan sells 300 billion yen. Of course all of this is good news for gold and silver, probably oil, as well. Not so much for equities in general though as input costs are going to rise while end customers prices remain the same.

    Before people tell me otherwise, I own two businesses and I assure you our margins are getting crushed. when the Healthcare bill for next year show up we expect a double digit hit and till have no pricing power.

    Things are going to get very interesting.

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  110. I believe Gary's speculation on a short-term pull-back in stocks is spot on. The fact that stocks could not get through the August high with the buck cratering tells us that the near-term rally is exhausted. A retreat to back-test the 65DMA (about 30 handles) would not be surprising at all. As soon as short-term indicators get oversold, though, stocks should bounce firmly enough to take out the August high.

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  111. There seems to be a pattern emerging.

    1. USD making record lows against other currencies. This will prompt more intervention from other CB's.

    2. Inflation starting to rear its head in other countries (ex-US).

    3. Stock in some other countries (ex-US) have already exceeded their summer highs.

    I think these are all supportive of PMs and stocks in the weeks ahead.

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  112. The race to the bottom has officially started with the nerd (Japan) hitting the bully back (US). Should be an interesting day ahead!
    http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?get_gallerynr=102

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  113. hmmm - yen devaluation.

    A good lesson for you all in why the gold is not an anti dollar play - but an anti fiat play.

    The dollar won't collapse. All fiat will slowly grind lower against gold as I have said.

    You are missing the real point Gary, it's not a dollar centric play. The USD is priced against other currencies as i have mentioned. Today was a good reminder to not bet against the buck.

    Long gold and long dollars......

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  114. Dang - reading all these posts..... I'm getting worried about my long gold 60% position.

    Everyone is getting all giddy and calling breakouts and this is it - the big move. The USD is toast, blah, blah, blah.

    I like it better when you all whine and are begging Gary to keep you in as you want to bail.

    I think I need to cancel my Sentimentrader.com subscription. It's better real time sentiment on this forum.

    Might be time to trim to 40% long gold.

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  115. It's better if everyone was freaked out this was just a rinse job taking out the buy stops over the highs. I am hoping to heck we don't close back below 1250, or ya'll were just duped.

    605 long gold, and was feeling excited, but all this optimism have me nervous now.

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  116. Anonymous1,

    Are you seriously thinking that sentiment on this blog is representative of the wider public?

    The sample on this blog is biased as most of us here already believe in this gold bull. In statistics, this concept is called self-selection.

    Better to check with the cab driver or your office collegues or your mum and dad. Ask them how much gold or silver they own. That would be a better measure :-)

    Then you can still save your subscription to sentimenttrader!

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  117. anonymous1: You know darn well that in the middle of a move the crowd is right. It's at the extremes where they are wrong. Of course people who are long gold are excited about the breakout. Of course people aren't terrified about gold going lower when it hits an all time high. If you sell when people are simply enthusiastic you'll miss most of every bull market. People can't get to "wildly enthusiastic" without passing through "enthusiastic" first. Maybe you are just being facetious. I heard some financial news on the radio today (a five minute spot) and they didn't even mention that gold hit an all-time high. Doesn't sound overblown to me. Doesn't mean we can;t dip, but below 1250? I doubt it.

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  118. RA -

    I have read enough from people on this site to know that a large amount of them don't have a clue and rely on the work of Gary. They are more animated because their fear and greed is amplified due to the fact their chips are on the table. I am not saying gold is in a bubble, because my own dad can care less about the price. But when rookie gold investors are whining about the pain and asking Gary to explain for the 12th time when this down cycle is going to end, it's time to load up. When they start posting about how fun it is to get rich...... well, let's just say I get a bit worried. Those puts protecting my gold shares begin to look good.

    Start journaling sentiment on this forum like I do. You might be surprised.

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  119. "Doesn't mean we can;t dip, but below 1250? I doubt it."

    That is only 1.4% away. That's only a bad few days.

    Statements like that are what get me worried. People leaving little chance for gold to pull back a whopping 1.4%......

    eeks

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  120. Anonymous1,

    Now you are making me nervous :-)

    Ok, will note sentiment here and see how that plays out :-)

    But did you notice the troll meter needle on this blog pointing to extreme levels with "parabolic tops" and "crash is coming"? Does that negate some of the bullish sentiment then in your view?

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  121. Of course it CAN do it. "Doubt it" means unlikely, not impossible. 1.4% is irrelevant. Could be 3.79%---who the hell knows. It's not the %age that counts, it's the action. The high volume breakout indicates buying interest. Gold has had trouble dipping even before today's convincing breakout. I suspect buyers will come in during a dip and that 1250 won't be hit. Your taking that comment as proof that people are too bullish is just foolish. If you actually invest based on stuff like that you are likely a loser, so I assume you just think your are clever (because you claim you make money). In fact you just seem silly, looking at every comment for tea leaves. I hope you know how to measure sentiment better than that! If you read Goepfert's stuff you probably do and are just being cute.

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  122. I journal both sides RA.

    I give one point to either bullish or bearish sentiment based on any post that basically has no analysis involved as to why they feel that way, just that they are "certain" of an outcome, or emotionally moved by their outcome coming to fruition.

    I take praises for Gary as -.5 points and bashes on Gary with no analysis as +.5

    Pretty simple system, with uncanny accuracy. I won't give you my "signal" levels though, or I could lose my edge.

    ;)

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  123. ooook DG

    You are the master money maker here, I forgot.

    I'll just go back into my little troll hole where I am broke and hoping Obama bails out my margined out account, because I just don't know how to trade.

    Thanks for revealing that to the world for me.

    I retreat in shame.

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  124. Anonymous1,

    Interesting. Do you offer a subscription service then :-) Is this the only blog from which you glean your sentiment information?

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  125. Instead of retreating in shame how about responding intelligently to what I have said. (Ad hominem arguments are usually a sign of nothing useful to say.)

    "If you sell when people are simply enthusiastic you'll miss most of every bull market. People can't get to "wildly enthusiastic" without passing through "enthusiastic" first."

    Is that true or false, and if false then why? If true, then if this was a legit important breakout then of course people will be bullish on it. How else can it eventually get overdone? Why not just reply and explain yourself without sarcasm?

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  126. Just recently on this forum DG, during the May breakout, volume was surging and the sentiment on this forum was giddy

    At the July low - I posted to a bear who thought we would tank that we would have a tough time getting to 1150, and that it was time to start adding. The sentiment on this forum was horrid, and we saw a volume spike on July 27.

    It's not as accurate on the upside, most extremes are not. Just saying, things are mapping out again in a way that I am worried. Not about to short or go to all cash, just enough to know I am worried.

    Would prefer peeps on here talking about AU like they have been and how it sucks and will never go up. Made me look to see if there was a buy point I would want to own it.

    What better way to get sentiment than from a majority of newbie gold investors willing to put their emotions on the line for the world to see.

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  127. No RA -

    To the chagrin of most on this site, I make my money in the markets and managing money.

    This is not the only site I glean info from though. It's just a hot one at the moment as the activity has picked up ever since Daily Crux began highlighting it. It has over the past few months had a bit more weight than other sites and forums because of this activity. It has brought a lot of "new" blood.

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  128. Thanks. Yes that's fair but what about the idea of the crowd being write in the middle of a move? Gold has been in a range, which seems to be when marginal sentiment peaks and troughs work best. In a major moves (If Gary's "runaway" is right) would you expect a bit of enthusiasm to end the move?

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  129. This forums signal is not strong - but sentiment is getting more giddy. Today was a huge surge.

    While gold marched up the past 6 weeks about 10%, and silver about 15%, the comments we still a bit "worried"

    Today, it seems more likely that we never pull back again by the scores is all.

    And it's not just this forum.

    Just saying I'll personally be a bit guarded in my enthusiasm.
    I'm wondering if the break of $1300 brings out the orgy here. That is only a 2.7% move higher.

    Calls for gold $30 million might show up then. :)

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  130. Just a note, but the trajectory of the scoring today shows a potential orgy on this forum at Gold $1319.

    Probably be where I trim, unless of course the data tells me something different before then.

    Just a heads up.

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  131. Yeah, $1300 might do it. It's hard for "all-time high" not to bring up some animal instincts. My only point is that every new high doesn't mean enthusiasm is too much or we'd never get anywhere in a true bull. And you can't possibly get much fear and worry at a new all-time high. I haven't had one tyro friend ask me about gold yet. Not one. Maybe $1300 will do it, and then I'd raise my stops. Thanks---good exchange.

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  132. Anonymous1,

    Fascinating!

    Anyways I have elected to go Old Turkey and ride out any drawdowns which should moderate any excessive optimism.

    Thanks for sharing!

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  133. Ad Hominem - "attacking an opponent's character rather than answering his argument. "

    DG says to Troll man Anon1:

    "Your taking that comment as proof that people are too bullish is just foolish. If you actually invest based on stuff like that you are likely a loser, so I assume you just think your are clever (because you claim you make money)"

    So are you the pot calling the kettle black?

    :)

    Peace

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  134. No question we are due for a sharp pullback. Expect 6-7-8% daily declines in PMs. The volatility of this sector shakes out weak hands quickly.

    ButEaster that, we are going to ride a rough road to $1500 this winter.

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  135. I can tell you why sentiment is bullish on this particular site. Many people here have been long for the entire move so they have big gains on this breakout. The vast majority of investors are probably just now getting long on the breakout.

    As an example Justin said he wouldn't believe the move until gold broke out to new highs. I suspect there are a great many traders and investors just like him.

    Many like TZ, missed the bottom and then couldn't bring themselves to chase so wathced the whole rally pass them by.

    I doubt this particualr blog is a great general representation of gold sentiment. I suspect most readers here have been in much longer than the average gold trader.

    Notice how volume has been very light until todays's breakout. Pretty good sign most market participants have been twiddling their thumbs waiting for the breakout before they buy.

    As soon as miners and silver follow gold we will then have the entire sector trading at new all time highs. This will be the only sector in the world that can boast that. That is going to bring in all kinds of hot money into the sector.

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  136. I will be interested to see if other CBs enter to prop the dollar up. The Yen may have been a country specific moment, dealing with national interests instead of the USD. However, the Bank of Canada started saying some strange things, despite raising interest rates a few days ago. The dollar will fall imo, even against other fiat currencies; it’s just a matter of how fast. I will be interested to see a more coordinated attack of this fall though, if it happens. The USD as a reserve currency may demand a different approach than a national currency that could collapse with little effect on world economies. My contention is a soft landing for the USD in an attempt to avoid worldwide shocks; one that requires other CBs to intervene somehow. But it is also my contention that the USD will fall even against other fiat currencies.

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  137. I'm wondering if the BOJ action may have altered the dollar cycle and turned what should have been a fialed daily cycle into a long one. If we get a sustained bounce over a few days I would have to go with that scenario.

    That could speed up the move into the half cycle low for stocks.

    However in the long run it still won't stop the dollar from dropping into the yearly and three cycle low.

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  138. Oh man, I hope Justin read tonight's report on the USD.

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  139. This is why I hate trading. Even well all the rules are on the table the house changes them. The only thing you can do as a trader is hopefully anticipate how the house will change the rules, and see if your positions are still valid.

    Gold and pms are easy as old turkey. No matter what CB's try to do, the USD will fall eventually. The national needs differ from reserve status needs. And the nation is dead, and doomed to reset. Moreso, the Fed seems poised to more QE, and if not, their message is still clear. The idea of a strong dollar via Fed actions is unthinkable. If other CBs have to prop up the dollar because the FED is out of bullets, then what does that say about gold as other countries sacrifice their currency.

    To tell the truth, it really gets me pretty pissed off, how can the entire world be filled with complete idiots that don't make mistakes but constantly act in the wrong way?

    Either way, Gary, in your view, does this at all affect gold’s break-out or the potential for a run away? Or is gold still set to move pretty hard? Thx

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  140. Gold has been decoupled from the dollar for a while now. Competitive currency devaluations is hardly negative for gold.

    I think $1300 is going to act like a very powerful maganet and I doubt the current daily cycle will top before $1300 is tagged or marginally exceeded. Same for $21 on silver.

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  141. I had mentioned couple of days ago I think what will drive gold is not just the falling dollar.
    While a falling dollar is good for gold, it also spurs the devaluation of other currencies. Notice that the Yuan has not gone up much against the dollar since the dollar peg was "removed". Maybe the USD index is not necessarily the key thing to watch.
    What I suspect will happen is that other nations will know that even if they cannot stop the dollar from falling against their currencies, at least they can slow a demise until a solution is found. They might at some point meet to coordinate this even. I do not think other countries will sit idly by and allow a free fall in the dollar.
    The result could be years of currency devaluation all round, forming the basis of the next leg of gold's bull run.

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  142. Hey Doc,

    I have asked a couple of times:
    "If you sell when people are simply enthusiastic you'll miss most of every bull market. People can't get to "wildly enthusiastic" without passing through "enthusiastic" first."
    What's wrong with this reasoning? You can't trade off sentiment only, unless it gets truly extreme (like 3/09 when everyone thought the world was ending.) I posted yesterday during the rally that the recent stock rally would pause because there was too much bullishness AND we were at resistance. Gold has no resistance here, so a little over-bullishness means nothing. What am I missing here from your perspective?

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  143. I think you are addressing anon1 not Doc.
    Doc has been bulish on gold for a long time.

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  144. Gary,

    I didn't chase gold on the last bottom because I've been in this thing for 10yrs now and I know the USUAL result of chasing a rally in midair. The fact that SO FAR the usual result (a pullback to take the money of those who chase) hasn't happened doesn't mean that my actions were incorrect. Hindsight is 20/20. Sure, I'd have loved to have bought the bottom. That statement should be tattooed on every investor's arm. We all know it.

    As for 'missing the bottom', it's true. But I had my own metrics for a bottom as well as you. Yours turned out correct, mine not. The people following you nailed it. In the future you may be a few days early or late and I may nail it. It is all a big give or take over time. Kudos. We will all try to do our best.

    I got caught in a non optimal situation and simply posted my comments as I tried to work through it. Others in my same situation may have benefitted or not.

    --TZ

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  145. So far we are NOT retracing/failing yesterdays volume breakout. If it holds and we don't return to 1258-1260 I suspect continued buying pressure that has relentlessly occurred for over a month will resume the push higher.

    --TZ

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  146. TZ,
    I'm not faulting you for missing the bottom. I was just pointing out that there are likely a lot of people in the same shoes you are in. They missed the bottom and were unable to make themselves chase.

    That just means there are still plenty of buyers to drive gold higher.

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  147. Thanks, Gary. Yes---that question was for Anon1...Sorry, Doc.

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  148. Gary,

    I sensed that and when i saw it driving to new highs STILL with no dip, I switched to plan B (which is buying BEFORE a substantial breakout with stops just under that breakout level - another technique I use, but it ONLY works in a strong momentum or runaway as you say).

    --TZ

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  149. Indications point to a down opening. So let me do this on behalf of 950 and get that out of the way. Here goes...

    "SP500 at 950 - here we come!"

    Ok, now that's done we can get back to the gold bull.
    Now where did I put that saddle?...

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  150. You'd be surprised Gary.

    The level of whining on this forum when it comes, as well as the death of gold gloating near the bottom is uncannily accurate.

    Not as much on the upside, but it is still there.

    You have your "troll meter", you should bring out your lemming meter to, it has marked a few intermittent highs.

    Why else would I come on here to get lambasted from the board during our economic debates other than to get something of value elsewhere.

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  151. Battle going on to see if they can retrace yesterday's gold spike and drive prices down into option expiration. So far no luck.

    If the effort fails much longer, then follow through buying will resume the move upwards in a few hours. When THAT happens we should see a very interesting follow through.

    I still think we go up and not down today.

    --TZ

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  152. Even if we do go up, we cant close up more than 1%.
    Kinda like how we couldnt close up yesterday, over 2%.

    Aaron.

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  153. TZ,

    I have the same feeling. But either way, short term moves do not really matter from an Old Turkey pespective.

    I just wanted to save 950 the trouble that's all :-)

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  154. Have no fear I fully intend to post the gold bug euphoria meter when the time is right.

    We still have a long way to go yet though. The intermediate cycle is only on week 6 and it typically lasts 20-25 weeks.

    The public opinion poll is dead neutral on both gold and silver.

    I do expect some kind of pullback into a daily cycle low after gold tags $1300, to cool sentiment a bit, but we are a long way from an intermediate top yet.

    Intermediate tops in the middle of an accelerating C-wave occur with gold stretched 20-40% above the 200 DMA.

    Heck the average leg up in a gold bull is 24%. Gold would have to rally to $1432 just to be average. And this is hardly an average C-wave.

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  155. Hey Anon1,

    I have asked a couple of times:
    "If you sell when people are simply enthusiastic you'll miss most of every bull market. People can't get to "wildly enthusiastic" without passing through "enthusiastic" first."
    What's wrong with this reasoning? You can't trade off sentiment only, unless it gets truly extreme (like 3/09 when everyone thought the world was ending.) I posted yesterday during the rally that the recent stock rally would pause because there was too much bullishness AND we were at resistance. Gold has no resistance here, so a little over-bullishness means nothing. What am I missing here from your perspective?

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  156. There is a difference between euphoria when breaking an high and euphoria when ALREADY rallying in new high territory for weeks or months.

    The first is NORMAL and expected and not much of a concern (now; although I have my concern about a retrace today into a low for fri). The second is the one signifying major peaks and to be worried about.

    People need to make a distinction.

    --TZ

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  157. Gary-
    What do you make of the Dollar Index movement so far this morning after Japan's move.
    Any more thoughts after the open?

    Gary--
    I'm wondering if the BOJ action may have altered the dollar cycle and turned what should have been a fialed daily cycle into a long one. If we get a sustained bounce over a few days I would have to go with that scenario.

    That could speed up the move into the half cycle low for stocks.

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  158. Oh..and people selling ANYTHING here on an over 1yr breakout of gold are crazy. The only reason I talk stops and possible reversal points into option expiration is cause I'm leveraged and I need to be more careful.

    This thing is JUST GETTING STARTED and we are headed to 1400-1600 in 3-6 months. (DISCLAIMER: buyer beware. Not investment advice)

    -TZ

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  159. You need something to determine wildly enthusiastic instead of enthusiastic. What do you use to determine that?

    I am just using my journaling and scoring system with my levels and based on that, this forum is getting me worried as we get close to a level in the past that has meant a sharp pullback over a number of weeks.

    Im not calling the top in gold or calling it a bubble, just saying the recent run is nearing the end and the pullback could be painful for a lot of people on here, especially those holding the 2 beta silver and gold ETN's and ETF's

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  160. I was in the 'pullback coming' camp for weeks. What changed yesterday was two things:

    1) we didn't GET a pullback and the relentless buying never stopped. At some point you need to recognize the situation.

    2) gold no longer was "in mid air" making it hard to buy technically and very susceptible to a pullback. Once it broke the all time high, I then had a position where I could define a stop and limit risk (the breakout point). We still may retrace back and I still may need to re-estabilish this in the future, but I'm happy with the play for now.

    --TZ

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  161. I didn't get SLW or silver because they ARE still in mid-air with no way to define or reasonably limit risk (on a leveraged position). That will probably occur on the next pullback gary is discussing.

    --TZ

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  162. Anon1: I use historical comparisons---mostly stuff that can be found on Jason's site. He shows all the gold sentiment at neutral. Doesn't mean we can;t dip, but a few enthusiastic posts is not going to stop a big bull market. I know you are not calling for an important top, but even a few days is not necessary after a few bullish posts. Thanks for responding, though

    ReplyDelete

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